Mosman Q4 Report

Lower North Shore

MOSMAN 2016

Q4 MARKET REPORT LJ HOOKER LOWER NORTH SHORE

I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION Information may be subject to change from time to time and updated information can be obtained at any time by contacting Ashton Rowe at info@ashtonrowe.com.au.

DISCLAIMER Whilst this information has been carefully compiled, no warranty or promise as to its correctness is made or intended. The information outlined within this document also represents subjective interpretation by Ashton Rowe (ACN 144 714 509) and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions.

Interested parties should undertake independent inquiries and investigations to satisfy themselves that any details herein are true and correct.

No guarantee of forecasts are being made by Ashton Rowe about potential capital gains or losses. Past information about capital gains does not imply that such gains or growth will be made in the future.

The material in this publication is copyright. This document cannot be reproduced without the express permission of Ashton Rowe.

The information contained in this brochure is of a general nature and has been provided at least in part to Lj Hooker Pty Ltd (“Lj Hooker”) by Ashton Rowe. While Lj Hooker has no reason to believe that the information is incorrect, Lj Hooker and its related bodies corporate, directors, agents, contractors and employees makes no representation about the accuracy, reliability, completeness or timeliness of the information contained in the brochure and does no more than

Date compiled 17 January 2017.

CONTENT INTEGRITY While Ashton Rowe believes it is unlikely that the electronic version of the report will be tampered with or altered in any way, Ashton Rowe cannot give any absolute assurance that this will not occur. Any investor in doubt concerning the validity or integrity of an electronic copy of the report should immediately request a paper copy of the document directly from Ashton Rowe.

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions.

The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion.

It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.

pass it on to you. Lj Hooker has no belief one way or to the other as to the accuracy of the information. You should rely on your own enquires and seek appropriate professional advice with respect to any information contained in this brochure.

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTRALIA’S LEADING PROPERTY RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY. TO TA L M A R K E T

HOUSES

UNITS

6,456

10,050

D E C E M B E R Q U A RT E R S A L E S *

91

116

TURNOVER

1%

1%

P RO PE RT IES IN S U B U R B

LEARNING: Turnover is the number of quarterly sales divided by

Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals

total properties in that market.

Median price is the

* 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.

middle price of all properties after they have been arranged

Total Houses

from smallest to

300

0

0

QUARTILE

Supply to Market

50 Q4 2016

1.0 Q1 2016

100

Q2 2015

2.0

Q3 2014

150

Q4 2013

3.0

Q1 2013

200

Q2 2012

4.0

Q3 2011

250

Q4 2010

5.0

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

6.0

UPPER

S OLD P R IC E S $5,400,000

highest. It best represents trends and buying patterns NOT capital growth.

ME D IA N

$3,225,000

LOWER

$2,700,000

Quartiles divide recent sales into four equal groups.

25% of sales are

Supply to market increased 3% taking it 35% below the 7 year average.

more than the upper quartile. 50% of sales are more than the median and

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

75% are more than the lower quartile.

Finally, 50% of

Total Units 1.5

sales are between

300 240

Q4 2016

Q1 2016

0

Q2 2015

0

Q3 2014

60

Q4 2013

0.3

Q1 2013

120

Q2 2012

0.6

Q3 2011

180

Q4 2010

0.9

Supply to Market

1.2

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

QUARTILE

S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$1,527,750

ME D IA N

$1,137,750

LOWER

$825,000

the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above the upper quartile are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.

Supply to market decreased 2% taking it 34% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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M A R K E T H E A LT H

LEARNING:

HOUSES

UNITS

D E C E M B E R Q U A RT E R

D E C E M B E R Q U A RT E R

C L E A R A N C E R AT E

91%

84%

D AY S O N M A R K E T

49

28

50%

50%

Auction Clearance

A U C T ION S

Rate is the percentage of

% O F S U P P LY

houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure excludes property passed in

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide

at auction.

% of Supply is the

HOUSES: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*

percentage of property on the

A DDR ES S

BEDS

B ATH

P R IC E

30 Bradleys Head Road

6

4

$15,500,000

17 Morella Road

4

4

$14,000,000

5 Esther Road

4

4

$7,300,000

2 Edwards Bay Road

4

5

$7,145,000

20 Edwards Bay Road

4

2

$7,000,000

market being sold using the auction method and lets you know the relevance of the auction clearance rate.

During a period of high demand the

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to December 2016

number of auctions typically increase.

UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER* A DDR ES S

BEDS

B ATH

P R IC E

2/41 Almora Street

3

2

$4,200,000

4 / 6 P a r k Av e n u e

-

-

$3,150,000

1 / 4 P a r k Av e n u e

5

4

$3,150,000

8/50-56 Muston Street

3

2

$2,950,000

12/50-56 Muston Street

3

2

$2,900,000

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to December 2016

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH TYPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING

Last Quarter

Entire Period

18%

22% 35%

41%

41%

3 Beds

43%

4 Beds

5+ Beds

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.

WHICH TYPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING

Last Quarter

21%

Entire Period

26%

53%

1 Beds

22%

27%

51%

2 Beds

3 Beds

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 3 Bedroom House Segment 60 50

4.0

40

3.0

QUARTILE

Supply to Market

5.0

30

Q4 2016

Q1 2016

Q2 2015

Q3 2014

0

Q4 2013

0

Q1 2013

10 Q2 2012

1.0 Q3 2011

20

Q4 2010

2.0

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

6.0

S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$2,750,000

ME D IA N

$2,475,000

LOWER

$1,858,750

LEARNING: Statistically Not Reliable is usually a result of not enough sales occurring to produce meaningful analysis.

Supply to market decreased 10% taking it 49% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

20

0

0

QUARTILE

Supply to Market

1.0 Q4 2016

40

Q1 2016

2.0

Q2 2015

60

Q3 2014

3.0

Q4 2013

80

Q1 2013

4.0

Q2 2012

100

Q3 2011

5.0

Q4 2010

120

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

4 Bedroom House Segment 6.0

S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$5,792,500

ME D IA N

$3,655,000

LOWER

$3,062,500

Supply to market increased 10% taking it 39% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

1.7

17

0

0

QUARTILE

Supply to Market

33

Q4 2016

3.3

Q1 2016

50

Q2 2015

5.0

Q3 2014

67

Q4 2013

6.7

Q1 2013

83

Q2 2012

8.3

Q3 2011

100

Q4 2010

10.0

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

5 Bedroom House Segment S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$5,962,500

ME D IA N

$5,400,000

LOWER

$3,925,000

Supply to market increased 5% taking it 24% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S

0.5

10

0

0

QUARTILE

Supply to Market

20

Q4 2016

1.0

Q1 2016

30

Q2 2015

1.5

Q3 2014

40

Q4 2013

2.0

Q1 2013

50

Q2 2012

2.5

Q3 2011

60

Q4 2010

3.0

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

1 Bedroom Unit Segment S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$810,250

ME D IA N

$710,000

LOWER

$650,000

Supply to market increased 4% taking it 24% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

0.5

20

0

0

Supply to Market

40

Q4 2016

1.0

Q1 2016

60

Q2 2015

1.5

Q3 2014

80

Q4 2013

2.0

Q1 2013

100

Q2 2012

2.5

Q3 2011

120

Q4 2010

3.0

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

2 Bedroom Unit Segment QUARTILE

S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$1,299,000

ME D IA N

$1,105,000

LOWER

$917,500

Supply to market stayed the same taking it 33% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

0.5

10

0

0

Supply to Market

20

Q4 2016

1.0

Q1 2016

30

Q2 2015

1.5

Q3 2014

40

Q4 2013

2.0

Q1 2013

50

Q2 2012

2.5

Q3 2011

60

Q4 2010

3.0

Q1 2010

Median Price ($m)

3 Bedroom Unit Segment

QUARTILE

S OLD P R IC E S

UPPER

$2,762,500

ME D IA N

$2,100,000

LOWER

$1,851,250

Supply to market decreased 21% taking it 51% below the 7 year average.

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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C A P I TA L G R O W T H

S UB U R B GR OW T H

HOUSES

UNITS

1 0 Y E A R AV E R A G E *

5.3%

6.6%

3 Y E A R AV E R A G E *

15.9%

11.5%

12 MONTHS**

17.2%

10.6%

LEARNING: Previously, the only way to measure a suburb’s capital growth was to compare the median sale price of

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report December 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months

properties sold in one period with the median sale price of

Units - Capital Growth

Houses - Capital Growth

properties sold in

60%

60%

the next period. This

50%

50%

however is plagued

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

at the lower end of

10%

10%

the market and in

-0%

-0%

-10%

with problems. To explain, if in one quarter there were many property sales

the next quarter,

Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016

Mosman Houses

Total

-10%

Sydney Houses

there were more sales at the high

Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016

Mosman Units

Total

Sydney Units

end, this would show a large increase in median

Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report December 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end

price, but would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore,

The Mosman residential market has outperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 2.4% each year over the last three years for houses and by 0.6% per year for units.

median price best represents buying patterns.

Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price.

For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex

December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore

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