The Property Chronicle - December 23 by ljhookerdrury

THE PROPERTY CHRONICLE

Town & Country

December 2023

Town & Country

CONTENTS

Page

LJ Hooker Newsletters and Blogs •

Letter from Principal (Brent Worthington) – Seasons Greetings o

•

Preparing your home before going on holiday

Property Management o

Making your rental yours without breaking the rules

3 4 7 8

Reports, Surveys & Commentaries •

REINZ – November Data Press Release

•

REINZ Monthly Report – 13 Dec 23 (Link)

•

REINZ House Price Index (HPI) – 13 Dec 23 (Link)

•

RealEstateCoNZ – Certainty brings back stability

•

CoreLogic – Home Values Rise 0.7% in November 23

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Tony’s View – Investors will return earlier

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TradeMe - Confidence returns to market as prices increase

18 19 30 36 40

across NZ

Finance & Lending •

Loan Market o

Property Prices record first increase since March 2022

Properties - LJ Hooker Town & Country •

Featured Properties

•

Recently Sold

Our People •

Brent Worthington

•

Lina Roban

•

Christine Connolly

•

Debbie Harrison

•

Johnny Bright (Apollo Auctions)

o •

Apollo Auction – Latest update Sept 23

Keith Jones (Loan Market)

SuperGold - Welcome Here

57 58

13 December 2023

Town & Country

Hi, We're at that time of year again when we take stock of the events in our lives over the past 12 months, look forward to spending special time with loved ones and friends, enjoying a well-earned break/vacation and plan for the new year ahead. There can be no doubt the last couple of years have been extremely challenging for most of us for a myriad of reasons and it's hoped that the storm has now past and a prolonged period of settled weather is on the way, allowing us all to make some more hay while the sun shines. To those of you who have entrusted us with transacting the sale of your property, the management of your rental investment or the purchase of new property, thank you. We 're always here to help and answer any questions you may have regarding real estate matters whether you're thinking of buying, selling, or investing in a rental portfolio. We live and breathe our motto "where the only result that matters is yours." So until next year, enjoy the content of this month's publication while taking a relaxing break away from the rigorous demands of our busy lives and have a wonderful Christmas. Cheers, Brent

Brent Worthington Principal and Licensee Agent LJ Hooker Town & Country & Property Management 1/233 Great South road, Drury 0292 965 362

Preparing Your Home Before Going on Holiday

Everyone loves a holiday. Whether it’s a mini break to the beach for a long weekend, or you are packing your suitcase and heading to the airport for an adventure abroad, you want to make sure your home is prepared before jetting away. Before you lock the door and drive away, it’s important to take some time to get things in order. This can make a big difference in reducing stress and making your return home more enjoyable. You also won't need to worry while you’re away so you can enjoy your holiday. Here are some tips to get you started: Secure your home The first thing you'll want to do is make sure your home is secure while you're away. This means locking all doors and windows, setting your alarm system (if you have one), and notifying your neighbours that you'll be away. You might also consider installing motion-activated lights outside your home, which can deter potential intruders. Stop your mail and newspapers A pile of newspapers and mail at your doorstep is a sure sign that you're not home. This can attract unwanted attention. You can request a mail hold through NZ Post, which will hold your mail for six day to 12 weeks. When you are back, they will deliver all the mail that built up while you were away. If you subscribe to a newspaper, contact them to temporarily stop delivery until you're back home.

Set up automatic lights To make it look like someone is still at home, you can set up automatic lights in different areas inside. This is easy to do with smart home technology, such as a smart plug or smart bulb. You can even set up a schedule so that the lights turn on and off at different times throughout the day. Clean up your home It's always nice to come home to a clean house, so take a little time to tidy up before you leave. This means doing things like washing dishes, taking out the rubbish, and wiping down surfaces. You might also consider doing a more thorough cleaning, such as vacuuming or mopping the floors, so that you can come home to a fresh and tidy space. You may want to consider putting fresh sheets on your bed. Slipping into a clean, made bed at the end of the day can feel great after a day of travelling home. Adjust your heating You don't want to waste energy (and money) while you are away. If you have central heating, you might want to turn this off or adjust it accordingly. Likewise, if you have a hot water cylinder, these can consume a lot of power. You may want to consider turning the temperature down or turning it off completely while you are away. Take care of your plants If you have plants that need watering while you're away, make sure you arrange for someone to take care of them. This could be a neighbour, friend, or family member. Be sure to give them clear instructions on how much water each plant needs and how often they should be watered. If you are only away for a short amount of time, put your indoor plants in the bath and add some water. Or you could put add a drip watering system to each plant to keep them happy while you’re away. Unplug electronics Even when you're not using them, electronics that are plugged in can still use energy. To save money and reduce your carbon footprint, unplug any electronics that won't be in use while you're away. This includes things like your TV, computer, and phone charger. Empty your fridge No one likes coming home to a smelly fridge, so make sure you empty it of any perishable items before you leave. You can either eat everything that will go bad or give it away to friends or neighbours. You should also consider throwing out any leftovers that might spoil while you're away.

Secure your valuables If you have any valuable items in your home, such as jewellery or electronics, make sure they're securely stored before you leave. You might consider using a safe or a lockbox for extra security. If you have a security system, make sure it's activated before you go. Check your home insurance Finally, make sure your home insurance is up to date and covers any potential damage or theft that might occur while you're away. If you're going to be away for an extended period of time, you might need to let your insurance company know. By making time to get your home organised before you leave, you will know it is safe. With your neighbours watching over it, you can focus on enjoying your holiday and exploring new places. When you come home, you can relax and unpack knowing your home is clean for your return.

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Please don't hesitate to contact our team who can ably assist you with any property management matters you may have or if you have any questions about anything in the newsletter or property management in general. HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

town & Country

December 2023

Stress Reduction Strategies for Rental Inspections

Rental inspections are inherently stressful. There is an abundance of cleaning followed by an overwhelming worry that the landlord might find something wrong. Rental inspections can even be stressful for the landlord too. However, renters and landlords alike need to think about rental inspections in a different light. Rather than being a pain, these inspections can prove to be an invaluable opportunity. Renters can raise concerns and receive validation for looking after their rental. Whereas landlords are afforded the opportunity to check on the condition and upkeep of their property. Realising the benefits of inspections can remove stress from the equation. How to prepare for an inspection When thinking about preparing a property for a rental inspection, a great place to start is the original property condition report. That way, renters know the condition that their landlord will be expecting the property to be in. This property report can also help landlords prepare for what to expect during the inspection. Preparing for inspections can be seamless when you are proactive. If renters notice a problem, speak up. This could mean informing the landlord if the maintenance issue falls under their domain or fixing the issue themselves. This means that come inspection time, there are no surprises. Landlords expect their properties to be clean and the best way to prepare to meet this expectation is by actually cleaning. Landlords will particularly look at the cleanliness of the kitchen and bathroom whilst also checking on the condition of the carpets and garden. Therefore, before the inspection, clean these areas with a thorough hand. This will ensure that tenants have done the right thing, helping landlords give them a pass for the inspection.

Once it is clear what is expected of tenants and landlords during the inspection process, there is no reason to stress, as each party knows their roles. Points to remember A great eliminator of inspection related stress is knowing when to expect the inspections. It is also important to note that landlords must give tenants a minimum of 48 hours notice before completing a rental inspection. Tenant matters Eliminate stress by compiling a checklist of activities to complete in order to pass an inspection. Important points to include are: • • • • •

Check general condition and cleanliness. Monitor wet areas for mould and potential water damage. Check health and tidiness of the garden, trees and lawn. Inspect the exhaust fans and clean accordingly. Make sure that the oven is in good working order and meets a standard of general cleanliness.

Landlord matters Rather than inspecting a property aimlessly, landlords should create a checklist of things to look out for. If the renters meet these requirements, landlords will then know for sure that the property is being looked after. Requirements could include: Test that all doors and windows freely open, close and lock. Check for any signs of leaky taps or pipes. Ensure that all water flows freely. Examine the condition of the weatherboards, bricks or tiles for signs of cracks or deterioration. • Observe areas of the house for indicators of dampness or wood rot. • Check the hot and cold water supply in terms of leaks, temperature and pressure. Why is an inspection necessary • • • •

Rental inspections are a necessary part of the renting process. This is due to the fact that both renters and landlords need to be up to date on the state of the property in order to avoid issues down the line. Rental inspections can be good news for both landlords and tenants. Firstly, for landlords, it provides a golden opportunity to personally evaluate the state of the property. By conducting inspections, landlords can ensure that everything is in working order, giving them peace of mind. It can also be used as an opportunity to nip issues in the bud before they become major and/or costly problems. Secondly, for tenants, inspections are an ideal time to make any concerns heard. This means that instead of trying to convince a landlord that a property needs maintenance issues repaired, the landlord can see for themselves what needs to be fixed.

Rental inspections provide an exchange of information that helps both landlords and tenants towards keeping a property in good working order. LJ Hooker property managers can help Rental inspections do not have to add stress to the lives of tenants and landlords. Instead, they can be treated as an opportunity to make sure that the property is in the best condition it can be. A circumstance that is mutually beneficial for both tenants and landlords. The key to eliminating the stress and thus getting the most out of rental inspections is being prepared. For renters this means taking the time to clean the house while for landlords this means compiling a list of things they want to check whilst in the property. Another way for landlords to reduce the stress around inspections is to hire a professional property manager. The value of a property manager can be found throughout the entire rental property process. Property managers can do everything from advertising a property and finding the appropriate tenants to managing the condition report process and inspecting the property on a regular basis. Therefore, a LJ Hooker property manager can inform tenants about how best to maintain the property while also ensuring that the landlord’s property is being properly looked after.

REPORTS SURVEYS & COMMENTARIES

Town & Country

December 2023

REINZ November data: More positivity as sales and listing numbers increase Press Release - 13 December 2023 The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) November 2023 figures show more sales activity, more listings coming to market, lower days to sell and a sense of more confidence overall (year-on-year). REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird says November continues the trend of slow and steady improvement in property market activity now that the country is past the election, and we head into more active months in the property cycle. We’ve seen steady activity again this month with a solid increase in the number of properties sold, up by 15.7% (from 5,550 to 6,422) month-on-month, and up by 12.2% (from 5,724 to 6,422) compared to November 2022. For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the total number of properties sold has followed a similar pattern, increasing by 17.0% month-on-month and increasing by 12.2% year-onyear. Across the regions, the data shows that only three of the sixteen regions had a decrease in the number of properties sold month-on-month, (West Coast 5.6%, Taranaki -2.1% and Otago -0.3%) and only two had decreases year-onyear (Nelson -16.9% and West Coast -2.9%). Comparatively, Nelson was also the region with the biggest increase month-on-month for November, with a 51.3% increase, followed by Tasman at 32.8% and Wellington at 31.1%. The national median sale price remained largely unchanged compared to last month, increasing by $1,000 to $790,000. Year-on-year, there is a slight national decrease of 2.0% from $806,000, while New Zealand excluding Auckland is down by 1.4% to $700,000 from $710,000. Median sale prices are still mixed this month with half of the regions having between 0% and 3.1% increase month-on-month. The remaining regions had a decrease in the median sale price, albeit at less than 4%. West Coast stood out from the other regions with a 17.4% increase month-on-month to $399,500 from $340,000.

“Local agents are reporting steady activity across different buyer groups, with more competition for buyers’ attention in areas where listings have increased. With median prices either largely unchanged or slightly lower year-on-year in a number of regions, for some buyers, now will be the time to act." “November has brought the expected lift in the number of properties coming to market and a significant increase in the number sold - a sign of positivity returning to the market. Open home attendance numbers and auction room activity have picked up as well in many parts of the country and we expect to see the number of properties sold across New Zealand increase in December, as we enter the busier season for real estate and people taking action to sell or buy before the pause at Christmas. Overall sentiment appears to be more positive, although this does vary by region,” says Baird. “The market is continuing to move a little quicker. The national median Days to Sell has remained the same this month at 38 days compared to last month, and decreased year-on-year by three days for New Zealand from 41. Regionally, West Coast again saw a decrease of 22 days, with Nelson close behind with a 17-day decrease in median Days to Sell month-on-month.” At the end of November, the total number of properties available for sale across New Zealand was 28,014, down 1.5% (435 properties) from 28,449 year-on-year, and up 9.4% month-on-month. For New Zealand excluding Auckland, inventory increased marginally by 113 properties (0.6%) year-on-year from 17,579 to 17,692 and increased 9.8% month-on-month. Nationally, new listings increased by 5.2% from 10,185 to 10,712 listings year-onyear and increased 12.4% month-on-month. New Zealand excluding Auckland also saw an increase month-on-month of 12.9% and year-on-year of 2.5%. “We’ve seen a large jump in the number of listings coming to market this month compared to last month. Notably, Gisborne with a 75% increase and ManawatuWhanganui, Wellington, and Nelson all reached increases in the mid-20% range. Year-on-year numbers remained mixed but we are watching more signs in the rolling months of an improving market.” “While factors like interest rates continue to impact the market, it certainly looks as though buyers and sellers are heartened by the fact that the election is over and the Official Cash Rate is stable. Although we will see some slowing over the Christmas period, we anticipate seeing a resurgence of activity from the end of January, as the boost in market positivity helps raise confidence further,” comments Baird.

The HPI for New Zealand stood at 3,686 in November 2023, showing a 0.8% increase compared to the previous month. However, when compared to the same period last year, the HPI reflects a 0.2% decline. The average annual growth in the New Zealand HPI over the past five years has been 6.1% per annum. It remains 13.8% below the peak of the market in 2021. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has the latest and most accurate real estate data in New Zealand. Media contact:

Laura Wilmot Head of Communications and Engagement, REINZ Mobile: 021 953 308 communications@reinz.co.nz

CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL REPORT

MONTHLY PROPERTY REPORT 13 December 2023 1 | REINZ Monthly Property Report

CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL REPORT

MONTHLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX REPORT 13 December 2023 © REINZ - Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc.

November brought brighter weather and a confidence-boosting trifecta of government, economic and OCR certainty. •

New listings lift before Santa touches down

•

National average asking prices generally stable

•

Demand lifting to meet supply

•

National stock flat, year-on-year

The latest data from realestate.co.nz shows that certainty breeds confidence in the property market. During November, vendors returned to the market, demand for property rose to meet supply, and average asking prices remained generally stable. All of this was in the face of increasing certainty around governmental leadership and the economy. Last month, the Reserve Bank also agreed to maintain the OCR at 5.5% for the fourth consecutive time. Vanessa Williams, spokesperson for realestate.co.nz, says the trifecta of government, economic and OCR certainty has boosted market sentiment: “Kiwis love certainty, which is why, with its reputation as a safe investment, we love property. Unsurprisingly, more stability in and out of the market gives people the confidence to buy and sell.” Selling by auction also remained the most popular sale method last month, making up almost a third (28.2%) of all listings. Vanessa explains that this is a by-product of market certainty: “People sell under the hammer when they feel confident in the market. And we’ve heard that many sellers had success in auction rooms during November.”

New listings lift before Santa touches down For the first time since November 2022, more than 10,000 new listings came onto the market last month. An increase of 5.2% yearon-year, this national lift is a combination of seasonal factors and market confidence, says Vanessa. Year-on-year, more than half of our 19 regions saw new listings increase. The biggest lifts were in Central North Island (up 21.9%), Taranaki (up 13.6%), Nelson and Bays (up 12.1%), and Auckland (up 10.5%). Month-on-month, new listings were up in all regions except Coromandel (down 16.3%), Marlborough (down 1.5%), and Central Otago/Lakes District (flat with a marginal decrease of 0.9%). Nationally, new listings were up 12.4% compared to October 2023. “We are in the peak selling season, confidence is up, and vendors are beginning to come back to the market,” says Vanessa.

National average asking prices generally stable Average asking prices nationally and around the country were generally stable last month. “We have moved away from the market’s COVID-19 era, distinguished by peaks and troughs. I think it comes down to more confidence and certainty in the market, which we didn’t have during the pandemic.” Five of our 19 regions saw average asking prices remain flat compared to November 2022. Nationally, all other regions, except Coromandel, saw average asking prices increase or decrease by less than 10.0%. Summer hotspot Coromandel saw the biggest change to its average asking price. Down 14.3% year-on-year, this is only the second time the region’s average asking price has been below $1 million since August 2021. Month-on-month, the region’s average asking price was down 20.7%. Vanessa explains small markets like Coromandel are susceptible to fluctuations. Throughout 2023, the national average asking price has remained flat at around $870,000. Vanessa says this is likely to be increasing confidence for buyers and sellers: “When we see big fluctuations to average asking prices, it can make buyers and sellers hesitant to transact. More stability should help both parties feel more certain around what number to expect on that final sales and purchase agreement.”

Demand lifting to meet supply A new dataset from realestate.co.nz shows demand for property was up year-on-year during November, with searches per listing up by 18.3% and engagements per listing up by 45.0%. Searches per listing divides the total number of searches by total stock. Engagements per listing divides the total number of enquiries and property saves by total stock. Together, both figures indicate the level of demand for property by measuring the level of serious buyer interest compared to the available supply.

“The increase in searches per listing tells us that more people are searching for property. The lift in engagements per listing signals a boost in the number of people actively keen to transact,” says Vanessa. Across the last 12 months, demand for property has been trending upwards, with both searches and engagement per listing up year-onyear. Vanessa explains it is great to see demand lifting to match supply, adding that stable average asking prices reflect the strong correlation between supply and demand: “During November, stock and average asking prices remained fairly flat. This tells me that supply and demand were well-matched.” Generally, when demand outstrips supply, prices increase. Whereas when supply is higher than demand, prices tend to decline. Last month, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, and Wellington saw the biggest increases in demand year-on-year. Searches per listing were up by 42.3% in Gisborne, 20.6% in Hawke’s Bay, and 72.6% in Wellington. Engagements per listing were also up in these regions compared to last year: 119.1% in Gisborne, 97.8% in Hawke’s Bay, and 112.4% in Wellington. Vanessa says high demand suggests competition is high in these regions.

National stock flat, year-on-year Year-on-year, stock was flat during November, with a decrease of 1.5% nationally. However, across our regions, it was a mixed bag. Year-on-year, around half of our 19 regions saw stock increase during November, while the other half saw it drop back. Compared to November 2022, the biggest lifts were in Coromandel (up 37.4%) and Central North Island (up 22.1%). Gisborne and Wellington saw the biggest decreases, down 20.5% and 22.0%, respectively. “Despite these outliers, we are nationally on par with November 2022 levels,” says Vanessa. For media enquiries, please contact: Hannah Franklin | hannah@ realestate.co.nz

Want more property insights? •

Market Insights:

Search by suburb to see median sale prices, popular property types and trends over time. •

Sold properties:

Switch your search to sold to see the last 12 months of sales and prices. •

Valuations:

Get a gauge on property prices by browsing sold residential properties, with latest sale prices and an estimated value in the current market.

Find a glossary of terms here. Written by Hannah Franklin

01 Dec 2023

Hot on the heels of October's 0.4% rise in property values, the CoreLogic House Price Index shows another rise in November, of 0.7%. The net result is that average property values are now up by 1.1% over the past three months, and the annual change now sits at -4.5%, the softest annual decline since November last year (-2.9%). From the peak to September 2023's trough, values fell 13.2%. After the increases in October and November, values remain 12.3% down from the high, at $915,448. CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson said that around the main centres, signs of the emerging upturn were widespread in November. Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington, and Christchurch all saw monthly rises in the range of 0.7%-0.9%, while Dunedin rose by a pretty buoyant 1.9%. "It's no real surprise to see the second monthly rise in house prices for this emerging cycle, given that mortgage rates have shown clearer signs of peaking in recent weeks. Despite some elevated volatility in global financial markets, the labour market is still relatively robust, and net migration inflows remain very high," Mr Davidson said. "However, the market hasn't exactly soared away just yet. While sales volumes have been growing steadily in percentage terms, it's from a low base so that hasn't translated into a surge in the number of deals. Plus, with the flow of new listings ticking along, we're seeing a flattening and perhaps even a slight lift, in properties on the market in recent weeks. That may take a little heat out of prices as buyers benefit from more choice and vendors contend with a subtle rise in competition. "Meanwhile, credit conditions also remain challenging. Even if mortgage rates don't rise much further, or even dip a bit for the longer-term fixed rates, they're still high and serviceability testing remains a significant hurdle too. Loan to value ratio rules are quite a restraint on low-deposit lending as well, although first home buyers are certainly taking advantage of that speed limit where they can." Mr Davidson also noted that the now-formalised new Government may also bring a little more confidence to the economy and housing market, but he expects it will be a while yet until we have truly detailed housing policy framework. "Any changes to the Brightline Test or rules relating to mortgage interest deductibility won't happen overnight either. In any case, the restraint of high mortgage rates isn't about to alter dramatically," he said.

CoreLogic House Price Index National and Main Centres

Main Centre Average Value

Click here for interactive version

Auckland

The growth in property values in Auckland over November was fairly consistent across the sub-markets, with North Shore up by a robust 1.8%, but Rodney, Auckland City, and Waitakere in a more measured range of 0.7%-0.8%. Franklin was a little softer, while Manukau and Papakura actually saw values drop in November. “This month's results serve as a further reminder that this upturn may not be all one-way traffic. The patchiness in property values by sub-region, even though wider market averages have started to turn around, could well remain a feature in the coming months, in Auckland and elsewhere too," Mr Davidson said. "Housing affordability is still stretched in many parts of NZ, and ‘higher for longer’ mortgage rates won’t do anything to ease that pressure."

Wellington

Wellington is another key part of the country where property values dropped significantly during the downturn, but have also started to turn around relatively promptly too. "Lower Hutt and Porirua, for example, both saw average values rise by 1.5% in November, with the latter's figure now up by almost 5% in the past three months. That momentum may not be maintained, but for now, Porirua is certainly showing some steady gains," Mr Davidson noted.

Regional House Price Index results Diversity in market conditions exists outside the main centres too, with Queenstown (3.2%) and Gisborne (1.9%) posting strong gains in November. Whangarei (-0.9%) and Rotorua (-0.6%) lagged behind, while Nelson and Invercargill were flat. Mr Davidson said this just illustrates the variability that is evident from region to region, and which might stay in play in the coming months.

Other Main Urban Areas (ordered by annual growth)

Property market outlook While Mr Davidson said it seems pretty likely that property values will continue to rise in the coming months, increases may not be seen in every month or location. "This ‘recovery’ could remain fairly subdued by past standards, given that housing affordability is still problematic, mortgage rates in general aren’t set to fall materially, and caps on debt to income ratios are still on the cards for 2024. "We should also never lose sight of the mortgage repricing process that is still going on for existing borrowers, as they face up to finally seeing the interest rate they're paying reach prevailing market levels over the next six to nine months. So far, this process has been very smooth. But it's a lingering risk to watch, especially if we did start to see some job losses coming through in 2024," he noted. "I'm always conscious of the scope for housing activity and prices to move faster than anticipated, due to the emotional or human factor involved. But right now, it's hard to see the market quickly shaking off the weight of high mortgage rates."

Input to your Strategy for Adapting to Challenges Feel free to pass on to friends and clients wanting independent economic commentary ISSN: 2703-2825 Sign up for free at www.tonyalexander/nz

30 November 2023

Investors will return earlier What will be the net impact on the housing market as a result of the new government finally being formed and policy details agreed on? Higher prices but maybe some improved supply of rental properties. Higher prices will ensue because of an acceleration in a key factor already getting underway – the return of investors to the market.

survey of real estate agents with NZHL revealed that a net 26% were seeing more investors in the market. This was the strongest result since January 2021. My latest survey of mortgage brokers with mortgages.co.nz showed three weeks ago that a net 31% were seeing more investors. This was the strongest result since October 2020.

Since early this year I have referenced results from my monthly surveys of real estate agents and mortgage brokers to show how since February first home buyers have been jumping back into the market. They have been attracted by lower prices, higher deposits, better access to credit, high numbers of listings, and the absence of competition from investors. My theme for the past few months has been that with a change in government looking likely investors would be on a path to returning and the window of opportunity for young people to buy without much competition was closing. My most recent survey results have shown the partial return of investors. Four weeks ago my

I have ventured the opinion that the window of opportunity for first home buyers to make a good purchase would be closed within six months. The timeframe may now be shorter because the return of ability to deduct interest expense against rental income will now happen faster than previously thought. Investors will get a chunky 80% deduction ability starting from April 1 2024. That’s close enough to the 100% effective a year later to render the missing 20% of little importance. The two graphs above clearly show the impact on investor property demand when the new tax came in from March 2021. We have to anticipate the opposite happening now. But will there be a feeding frenzy? No. My monthly survey of existing property investors with Crockers Property Management shows strongly rising worries about the costs of investing

in property going up – principally rates, insurance, and maintenance. Here is the graph for insurance worries. The other two are similar.

But my surveys of real estate agents and mortgage brokers probably predominantly capture observations of new investors. These people are the Kiwis determined to go to Australia – not knowing the details of what they are planning to do. The surveys suggest they are going to jump in boots and all and perhaps the only serious restraint is getting finance from the bank and meeting interest payments. They are likely to do their best to get around these problems because they want to get on the house bandwagon now that it is moving forward again. The existing investors are already there with large, accrued gains which weaken their feeling of dire need to get a property.

But there is a caveat to my downplaying the potential for a frenzy. Our kids are heading off to Australia because they are told by the media that New Zealand is stuffed and everything is in crisis. They have no idea what Aussie tax rates are, what the cost of living is, what rents are, what the availability of rental property is, and how Aussie attitudes are different from us PC woke offend noone soft Kiwis. The people in my Crockers survey are existing investors, not new ones. They are like Aussies, already knowing what the place is like and feel that with costs rising so much they are not really much interested in buying another place. Their net purchase intentions shown here remain firmly negative.

Therefore, much as I play the politically correct game of not scaring the kiddies and saying that the entry of investors will be cautious and the upturn in the market mild, if I were a person looking to make a purchase I’d be out and about this weekend looking to lock something up. But this would be on the basis of a reasoned view of what lies ahead rather than FOMO. One further thing of note, we have just seen a bank make some small cuts to fixed mortgage interest rates. If others join in the fear factor of interest rate levels in the coming 1-2 years is going to dissipate quite quickly. People will think that current credit cost pain will disappear not too far down the track. But this is not what the Reserve Bank wants to see. So, if a ball of falling interest rate expectations gets rolling, I’d expect the Reserve Bank to take a measure to stop it dead. Other relevant policies to be noted from the two coalition agreements include agreement to make councils choose whether or not to implement housing intensification through the Medium Density Residential Standards. This implies less growth in new house supply though by how much is impossible to say. However, the RMA is to be restored and reformed to make land development easier. The net impact on housing supply is unclear. The same comment

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applies when we take into account potential for sharing GST on new residential developments with councils and financial incentives to councils to get more houses built. The Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act will be rewritten to leave protection for vulnerability consumers in place but remove the ridiculous restrictions imposed by the previous government on all other borrowers. The unwinding of the credit crunch from December 1 2021 will have a positive impact on credit access and demand for housing. But we don’t know when and to what degree. Immigration rules will be tweaked with the outcome being more people able to come into the country by the looks of it. This will add to demand for housing. Timeframe and magnitude are unknown. Tenant legislation will be altered so that landlords once again can end a tenancy with 90 days notice without giving a reason, or 42 days if the property is to be sold. Many investors have expressed concern about the previous changes worsening landlord rights so presumably the change back will keep some willing to hold onto their property or buy another one.

In case you missed it On Monday I released the results of my latest Business Survey with Mint Design. The results show a decrease in concerns about politics and regulations following last month’s general election, decreasing plans for raising prices, but still negative plans for capital spending on new equipment etc.

Mint Business Insights - November 2023 - Mint Design

If I were a borrower, what would I do? This week started with downward movement in NZ wholesale interest rates on the back of falls in the United States. The ten year bond yield there for instance has declined now to around 4.27% from 4.4% last week and a peak of just over 5% a month ago. But the Reserve Bank’s review of the official cash rate yesterday was a more hawkish document than expected. They slightly lifted their projected track for the OCR so one further rise next year looks possible. They noted they discussed raising the cash rate now but would await more data – the same sort of sentiment expressed for some time by the Federal Reserve in the US. They noted that the domestic economy this year has been stronger than expected and one reason is booming net immigration which is placing new upward pressure on housing costs.

Page | 4

They noted that the currency is tracking slightly lower than expected. But right now the NZD is above their assumed level and therefore placing some extra downward pressure on inflation. They have assumed no negative economic impact from El Nino, no tightening of fiscal policy by the new government, and downplayed the restraining impact on wages growth of a rapidly easing labour market. In a nutshell, they seem to have structured the cash rate review to deliver a message that the markets are a bit ahead of themselves in expecting 2-3 rate cuts next year. And they have done so because at 5.6% the current rate of inflation is too high to allow any mistakes to be made. The chances remain good that the first easing of the cash rate will come in the second half of next year rather than mid-2025 as they have pencilled in. The markets have generally adopted this view and that is why swap rates banks pay to borrow fixed have ended this week not much changed from a week ago. If I were borrowing at the moment, I’d probably fix 12-18 months. Note how the following graph shows banks are now creaming it on one year fixed rate lending.

Page | 5

Confidence returns to market as prices increase across NZ October Property Price Index 2023

By Gavin Lloyd | 28 November 2023

The property market is showing continual signs of revival, with month-on-month price increases recorded across every region, according to Trade Me’s Property Price Index for October. The national average asking price for a property reached $860,750 in October, up 2.4 per cent when compared with September. “Whilst two per cent may not seem like a lot, it's the biggest month-on-month increase in almost two years, which means sellers could get an extra $20,000 for their property,” said Trade Me Property Sales Director Gavin Lloyd. “This is confirmation that the market is starting to turn following three consecutive months of steady increases which will be welcomed news for those thinking about listing.”

Hawke’s Bay leading the way The Hawke’s Bay region emerged as the frontrunner in property price growth in October, with average asking prices surging 4.1 per cent to $771,600. “This was most evident in Hastings, where prices skyrocketed by 7 per cent to $788,300. Napier, on the other hand, maintained its position as the most expensive area in the region, with average prices rising 2.6 per cent to $821,350,” said Mr Lloyd. While the average asking price has increased month-on-month, the market is still shy of the record highs witnessed in 2022. “Even with a year-on-year decline of 8.1 per cent, Auckland remains the most expensive region in the motu, with average asking price still over a million dollars at $1,054,800,” Mr Lloyd added. “In contrast, the West Coast, despite experiencing a 7.3 per cent increase to $469,900, remains the most affordable option for homebuyers. It’s also the only region to defy the national trend, having consistently recorded year-on-year increases for the past five months.”

Policy changes could up property supply The supply of properties for sale dropped by 6 per cent year-on-year across Aotearoa, with Wellington recording the largest decline of 26 per cent compared to October last year. As the new government takes shape, Mr Lloyd anticipates that upcoming policy changes could incentivise more Kiwi to put their homes on the market. “With interest rates on the rise, some property owners who bought in recent years may be considering selling, particularly if the bright line test is reduced," said Mr. Lloyd. “National's campaign promises to lower the capital gains tax for properties held for two years or less, coupled with ACT and NZ First's outright opposition to the tax, suggests that the property market might see a significant shakeup now the new cabinet is finalised,” added Mr Lloyd.

Regional demand heats up ahead of Summer Property demand in Aotearoa surged by 7 per cent, with several regional areas experiencing a remarkable double-digit percentage increase compared to September. Gisborne led the way with a substantial 16 per cent rise in listing views, closely followed by Hawke’s Bay, which saw a 14 per cent jump. “While Auckland and Christchurch properties observed a slight uptick in listing views, it seems that Kiwi are keen to trade the bustling city life for the serene coastal towns of the east coast of the North Island. With consistent sunshine hours and beautiful beaches, it’s no surprise that these areas are becoming increasingly popular summer destinations for Kiwi,” said Mr Lloyd. Additionally, Marlborough and Wellington both recorded a significant 12 per cent increase in listing views in October when compared with September.

FINANCE & LENDING

Town & Country

December 2023

Property prices record first increase since March 2022

After a housing correction lasting almost 18 months, property prices are rising once again, leading CoreLogic to “confirm the end of the recent housing market downturn”. New Zealand's median property price rose 0.4% in October, to $909,000, after remaining flat in September. That was the first rise since March 2022. During that time, the median price fell 13.2% (or roughly $138,000), although it still finished almost 25% above the pre-pandemic median price of March 2020. Meanwhile, prices rose in five of New Zealand’s six main centres between September and October: •

Hamilton rose 1.3% to $798,000.

•

Christchurch rose 1.1% to $741,000.

•

Dunedin rose 0.8% to $616,000.

•

Wellington rose 0.3% to $893,000.

•

Auckland rose 0.2% to $1.262 million.

•

Tauranga fell 0.1% to $1.006 million.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said housing market fundamentals had been looking stronger for a while, but it was still early days in the recovery and conditions varied from location to location. He also said the shift in voting to the centre-right seemed to have bolstered housing market confidence, despite mortgage rates edging higher again recently. “We’ve also seen net migration rise to a new record high, which is boosting property demand,” he said. “Another key factor in the housing market turnaround has been the continued strength of the labour market ... The resilience of employment has meant the vast majority of households have successfully managed to rejig their finances as they reprice from older, lower fixed rates, onto today's higher levels.

“The loosening in the CCCFA [Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act] rules from May and slightly relaxed LVR settings from June have both also played a role, while, at the same time, the flow of new listings remains low. “As a result, there’s been a re-emergence of some degree of competitive price pressures, as buyers attempt to secure a property in a market where there’s a bit less choice.”

What to expect in 2024 Mr Davidson said it seemed likely that prices would continue to rise in the coming months, although increases may not occur in every month and location. “This ‘recovery’ could remain fairly subdued by past standards, given that housing affordability is still problematic, mortgage rates aren’t set to fall anytime soon, and that caps on debt-to-income ratios are still on the cards for 2024,” he said. “However, the next six to 12 months could be really interesting, with some investors looking to buy again, with a view to their tax bills being lower in the future. That means first home buyers could have some new competitive headwinds on the horizon. But even with a smaller tax bill, low rental yields and high mortgage rates still make it tricky to get the sums to work on an investment purchase. As such, we don’t anticipate a full-scale return by property investors.” Whether you’re a first home buyer, an upsizer or a property investor, I can help you finance your purchase. Get in touch so I can calculate your borrowing power, compare the market and manage your loan application.

Published: 20/11/2023

PROPERTIES

Town & Country

December 2023

80 Sutton Rd Drury PRIME DEVELOPMENT Future Urban! • 8.4731 ha (more or less) • 8 Bay Milking shed -130sqm (Approx) • Chicken shed – 200 sqm (Approx) • Haybarn - Machinery storage 2nd Chicken Shed – 680sqm (Approx) • Water Bore Also available is the neighbouring property at 150 Sutton Road. FOR SALE BY NEGOTIAION _____________________________________________________________ View By Appointment only _____________________________________________________________ Contact

Brent Worthington 0292 965 362

Principal & Agent Please contact Brent directly for more information

Town & Country

and for a copy of the Comprehensive Property Report or click here to view on website.

brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz TNB Property Services Limited Licensed REAA (2008)

All information contained herein is gathered from sources we consider to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee or give any warranty about the information provided. Interested parties must solely rely on their own enquiries.

150 Sutton Road Drury PRIME DEVELOPMENT Zoned Future Urban! • 11.9382 ha (more or less) • 2 Bedroom Cottage- 124sqm (Approx) • Single Garage & Shed - 36sqm (Approx)

Also available is the neighbouring property at 80 Sutton Road.

FOR SALE BY NEGOTIATION _____________________________________________________________ View By Appointment only _____________________________________________________________ Contact

Brent Worthington 0292 965 362

Town & Country

Please contact Brent directly for more information and for a copy of the Comprehensive Property Report or click here to go to website.

Principal & Agent brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz TNB Property Services Limited Licensed REAA (2008)

114 Harbourside Drive KARAKA RIPE FOR DEVELOPMENT in KARAKA Located in the "sought after" Karaka Harbourside Estate, the opportunity to purchase another land holding of this size and zoning is unlikely. Currently consented for a 7 Lot residential subdivision, the property is also subject to Auckland Council's Plan Change 78Intensification proposed 18/08/2022. Possibly greater development opportunities!

By By Negotiation _____________________________________________

Contact

Brent Worthington

0292 965 362

Click here to view on website

TNB Property Services Ltd Licensed REAA (2008)

5 Coronation Road PAPATOETOE PRIME COMMERCIAL BLOCK. *Increasingly more difficult to find blocks of this size

and zoning around in the heart of Papatoetoe *Site is held in two Records of Title located adjacent to the corner of Coronation and Shirley Roads.. *Under the Auckland Council Auckland Unitary Plan (AUP)states that: "The zone provides for a wide range of activities including commercial, leisure, residential, tourist, cultural, community and civic services, providing a focus for commercial activities and growth." *Land 3662m² (m.o.) *The six existing tenants currently return $138,581.00

per annum plus GST and outgoings.

Price by Negotiation _____________________________________________________________ View By Appointment _____________________________________________________________ Contact

Brent Worthington 0292 965 362

Please contact Brent directly for more information and for a copy of the Comprehensive Property Report or click here to view on website.

LJ Hooker Drury NZ 09 294 7500 TNB Property Services Ltd Licensed REAA (2008)

LJ Hooker

5th December 2023

91 Beatty Road, Pukekohe NZ

§8

Town & Country Drury

Recently S O L D

�

uNuM1TED POTENTIAL

Sold

Brent Worthington 029 296 5362 brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz

On the market for the first time in 43 years. The 630m2 dwelling is set on a 2,379m2 site (more or I...

35 Briody Terrace, Stonefields NZ

§4

�4

STAND ALONE IN STONEFIELDS

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Brent Worthington 029 296 5362 brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz

Set on a 372m2 site (more or less) this 243m2 Fletcher designed and built dwelling will definitely i...

102 Mountain Road, Mangere Bridge NZ

§2

�1

LOCATION - LOCATION - LOCATION

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Brent Worthington 029 296 5362 brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz

CONJUNCTIONALS ARE WELCOME. On the market for the first time ever, this offering is p...

3 Paparata Road, Bombay NZ

§4

�8

MOTIVATED VENDOR MOVING SOUTH

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Brent Worthington 029 296 5362 brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz

* 4 Double bedrooms. * Master with ensuite. * Impeccably cared for and presented. <...

151 Barrack Road, Mount Wellington NZ

§4

�6

UNIQUE INVESTMENT with HUGE POTENTIAL

Sold Price on Application

Lina Roban 021 022 88521 lina.rob@ljhooker.co.nz

Located in the geographical centre of metropolitan Auckland, this property is all about potential. D...

09 294 7500 https://drury.ljhooker.co.nz/

1/233 Great South Road Drury NZ 2113 drury@ljhooker.co.nz

OUR PEOPLE

Town & Country

December 2023

BRENT WORTHINGTON Brent Worthington

Licensed Agent & Principal 0292 965 362 Brent.worthington@ljhooker.co.nz

There’s not much Brent doesn’t know when it comes to selling real estate. This town and country agent has had a successful career in the property market and is now the proud owner of his own business. Definitely a quality over quantity man, when you bring Brent on board, you’ll find that accumulating listings is far less important to him than making each one as good as it can get. He prides himself on telling it like it is - knowing you’ll be able to make better decisions with a person and information you can trust. Complementing Brent’s practical and credible approach is a background full to the brim of industry knowledge and business expertise from 30 years working within the construction industry. His capabilities have been well proven as a highly successful business owner. A family man, with a proven track record of success, Brent has earned an excellent reputation and the trust of his local community and business colleagues. He places huge emphasis on customer satisfaction, attention to detail and conducting his business with a genuine duty of care. Brent has gained many awards as a business leader during his 12-year tenure in Real Estate. His entrepreneurial style ensures he reaches out and connects people with like minds. He imparts his wisdom in a warm and friendly manner and helps people to make wise and right decisions before investing in the property market, Auckland wide. If you are considering a lifestyle change, investing for your future or simply wanting to know the worth of your property in this fluctuating market, feel welcome to call or email Brent to receive the latest updates on the trends and statistics in your area.

When you know, you know. ™ TNB Property Services Limited, Licensed REAA (2008)

LINA ROBAN Lina Roban

Licensee Salesperson 0210 228 8521 lina.roban@ljhooker.co.nz

Prior to entering the world

of real estate, driven by her love of meeting

and

helping people, Lina had an impressive 20 year career in sales and marketing roles in the telecommunications

and

corporate

marketing

her expertise in communication

and negotiation always

industries where

resulted in the delivery

of superior customer service to her clients. Originally from Fiji, Lina epitomises energy, passion integrity and hard work in everything she turns her hand to. When

not delivering superior service to her clients, Lina loves spending time with

her family and is a passionate cyclist, owning

both road and mountain

With her three children all having "flown the coop", Lina and her husband have

plenty of time

memorable

to enjoy their love of travel

and

some

bikes. also

of their more

adventures include extensive journeys throughout South East Asia, the

USA and the South Pacific.

When you know, you know. ™ TNB Property Services Limited, Licensed REAA (2008 drury@ljhooker.co.nz https: //drury.ljhooker.co.nz)

CHRISTINE CONNOLLY Christine Connolly Sales Associate

0278 405 248 christine.c@ljhooker.co.nz

With Christine's many years of success in Real Estate, Christine is now contributing to the success of the team at Drury Town & Country along with sharing her vast experience, expertise and cheerful disposition with our clients.

When you know, you know. ™ TNB Property Services Limited, Licensed REAA (2008)

DEBBIE HARRISON Debbie Harrison

PropertyManager 021 302 864 debbie.harrison@ljhooker.co.nz With a passion and a commitment to providing exceptional service, Debbie has a fantastic attitude of getting things done and ensuring that the clients are happy and well cared for. She takes great pride in her work and goes above and beyond to ensure the satisfaction of both property owners and tenants. Debbie’s attention to detail and organizational abilities are exceptional, enabling her to efficiently handle all aspects of property management, from tenancy agreements, rent collection to property inspections and maintenance coordination. Debbie understands that property management requires a compassionate and empathetic approach, and she always strives to create a positive and harmonious living environment for tenants while protecting the interests of property owners. Whether you are a property owner seeking professional management services or a tenant searching for a well-maintained rental property, Debbie is committed to delivering exceptional results and ensuring a smooth and rewarding experience for all parties involved. With her excellent communication skills, strong work ethic and dedication to excellence, Debbie Harrison is a true asset to LJ Hooker, Drury.

When you know, you know. ™ TNB Property Services Limited, Licensed REAA (2008)

Johnny Bright AUCTIONEER Johnny is proud to be a part of the team at Apollo Auctions NZ. Entering real estate in 2014, he has developed and honed his craft of auctioneering and negotiating skills to a level that now sees him as an industry leader. Johnny has worked and collaborated with some of the most notable agents, business owners and auctioneers across New Zealand. With the fusion of his knowledge and skill together with his personable approach, Johnny creates the ultimate auction experience . He implements drive and dedication to each and every property that he calls - regardless of value, location or personal circumstances. Johnny’s performance style and welcoming nature allows him to capture the audience and motivate buyers. He will guide you through the process and create a solid platform to achieve the best possible outcome for your auction. Johnny also has a passion for acting. With a Bachelor of Performing and Screen Arts, he has appeared in several TV commercials and films, his most widely recognized being ‘Falling Inn Love’, an American Netflix production which was filmed in New Zealand. He has also worked with the Auckland Theatre Company on a number of occasions. He currently resides in Beachlands with his wife and two young children.

M: 022 173 1885

E: johnny@apolloauctions.co.nz

Interested in working with the best in the business?

It’s rare in life that we get something for nothing with no strings attached, especially if it genuinely adds value. Nevertheless, that’s precisely I will give you. Expert home loan advice which has reliably proven to offer significant long-term financial advantage. I keep strict tabs on the country’s largest network of banks plus numerous smaller and second-tier lenders, so you don’t have to. What’s more, this comes at no cost to you because your chosen bank pays for the privilege. You have nothing to lose, yet have a higher chance of securing better terms. Rest assured - if there’s a superior deal out there for you, I’ll find it. In the typically stoical world of finance, I offer a point of difference. Not only will you receive excellent independent and impartial advice, but you’ll have fun doing it. Even after 15 years in the mortgage arena, my enthusiasm for objectives and commitment to clients shines through at every turn. Endorsement comes from countless glowing testimonials and in my own words: “I’m at my happiest helping people navigate through difficultsituations,giving hope and concrete opportunity where they previously had none.” Prior experience as sales manager in the fields of telecommunications and pharmaceuticals, then later, a small business owner and private property investor, provided me with considerable business acumen across many industries. My customer-focused approach and personable demeanor also reflect a lifetime of experience in client relations. I credit travel to distant locations for creating an enduring interest in different cultures and honing my ability to relate well to the needs of the broader population. In particular, I soundly empathise with people relocating from other countries to make New Zealand their home. To continue giving my professional best, I maintain balance by travelling and participating in seasonal sports such as paddle boarding and skiing. I enjoy indulging in my creative side; with landscaping, painting watercolours or improving my guitar playing prowess. Additionally, I actively support my community through Christians Against Poverty (CAPNZ), but above all, my wife and our five shared children always take centre stage. There's little that I haven't seen in my time in the industry, priding myself on an ability to deal with the trickiest of scenarios, never turning anyone away. My philosophy of treating people how I'd like to be treated results in a 360-degree perspective which sets myself apart. Get in touch if you need any expert guidance. Regards Keith Jones 021 849 767 Keith.jones@loanmarket.co.nz loanmarket.co.nz/keith-jones View Website

When you know there’s

no place like home for the holidays

Wishing you a home filled with laughter and cherished moments this holiday season.

TOWN & COUNTRY

When you know, you know. ™

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