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Weather Outlook
Summary
• Persistence or expansion of drought in Texas and the Dakotas in conjunction with ongoing drought in Rocky Mountain and desert southwest regions could result in levels of herd liquidation/movement that broadly impact cattle markets. If the drought preempts spring forage growth in these regions, market impacts could develop rapidly in the next three to five months. Conditions in the coming weeks may have significant cattle market impacts on producers in drought regions, producers in regions where drought is or could develop, as well as producers outside of drought areas. • As droughts develop regionally, affected producers endure growing management challenges and increased costs. Drought conditions necessitate a sequence of producer actions including modified pasture and water management, increased supplemental feeding, additional feed purchases and perhaps relocation or liquidation of part or all of the herd.
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outlook
• Oklahoma: Moisture is adequate at this time for spring growth. • Kansas: Recent rain and snow alleviated dry conditions in much of
Kansas. • Arkansas: Adequate moisture • West/South Texas: Drought is expected to continue. • Central/East Texas: While experiencing mild short term drought, it is expected to ease over time.
Cattle market outlook
• Cow herd is continuing to liquidate in areas of drought. Combined with smaller calf crops from 2019 and 2020, we expect tighter fed supplies and higher prices by late 2021. • Higher prices for fed cattle and feeder cattle later in the year will keep the fall calf run higher prided than it would be in normal years. • All classes of cattle are getting to above year ago prices, we expect this will continue this year.
outlook
• Stockers: On summer grass, producers can expect solid profitability • Cow/Calf: Producers will see improved profitability vs. year ago
