A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE: NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND REAL ESTATE

GARETT HUBER 2023 A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND REAL ESTATE MARKET CONDITONS

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26 September 2023, 10:42PM UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Answering six burning questions on US real estate Real estate markets Author: Jonathan Woloshin, CFA, CIO Equity Strategist, US Real Estate & Lodging, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS)

• Housing affordability remains extremely stressed with mortgage rates at multi-decade highs and monthly payments as a percentage of income well above the housing bubble period.

• The dearth of available for-sale inventory combined with severe underbuilding in the years following the global financial crisis and the fact that 61% of outstanding mortgages have a rate below 4% and 80% have a rate below 5% are likely to keep the housing market unbalanced for the foreseeable future.

• The supply/demand imbalance is likely to help keep a floor on home prices. This combined with significantly better mortgage underwriting standards post the global financial crisis will, in our opinion, help prevent a housing crisis similar to the 2008/2009 period.

• Although distress in the commercial real estate market is likely to increase, we believe the plethora of dry powder sitting on the sidelines combined with capital remaining available from banks and the capital markets will help prevent a substantial meltdown in the CRE market.

• Over the next several years we see the best CRE investment opportunities in residential rentals, industrial/warehouse and distressed real estate debt.

Given the sharp upward move in interest rates and the "higher for longer" narrative being espoused by the Federal Reserve, we wanted to address several key questions on the minds of clients pertaining to the US real estate market.

1) What is the impact of affordability concerns with mortgage rates at multi-decade highs?

There are a number of ways to measure affordability. It is important to remember that the majority of homebuyers buy on monthly payment as opposed to price. If we consider monthly payment, we believe the most effective measure of affordability is considering monthly principal and interest payment as a percentage of median household income. As Fig. 1 highlights, the current monthly mortgage payment as

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Real estate markets

a percentage of median household income is approximately 42% or roughly 1,000 bps above the peak of the housing bubble. This data is based on a median existing home price of USD 413,500, a 30-year fixed rate, fully amortizing mortgage at a rate of 7.5% and a 10% down payment.

Fig. 2 - Monthly principal and interest payment premium (discount) to three-bedroom rent — assumes a 10% down payment and 7.5% mortgage rate

Fig. 1 - Monthly principal and interest payment as a percentage of median household income — assumes a 10% down payment and 7.5 % mortgate rate

Source: NAR, Freddie Mac, CBRE, UBS

Fig.3 - Owning vs. renting for 50 of the largest cities in the US

Source: NAR, Freddie Mac, UBS

It is also important to consider the cost of ownership relative to that of renting. As the data in Fig. 2 highlight, the current monthly mortgage premium to the median three bedroom rent in the US is at a 27-year high and well above the peak of the housing bubble. As housing is such a local business, in Fig. 3 we compare the monthly cost of ownership vs. the monthly rent of a three-bedroom apartment in 50 of the largest cities in the US. For the purposes of this analysis, we consider the fully loaded cost of monthly homeownership – that is principal and interest, real estate taxes, homeowner’s insurance, maintenance and mortgage insurance (given a 10% down payment assumption).

In our view, this provides a more accurate comparison of the true cost of owning vs. renting. As the data in Fig.3 indicate, it is significantly less expensive to rent rather than own in 48 of 50 of the largest markets in the US – and this assumes one has the funds for a down payment and can qualify for a mortgage. In addition, this is prior to the restarting of student loan payments that were suspended during the pandemic.

Source: NAR, Haver, Freddie Mac, California Association of Realtors, Honolulu Association of Realtors, CBRE, CoStar, UBS

2) Will supply and demand dynamics in housing balance out anytime soon?

One of the key factors impacting the US housing market over the past several years has been the dearth of available single-family home inventory. Whether measured by absolute units or months of supply (MOS) existing home inventory remains extremely depressed (Fig. 4).

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Fig. 4 - Existing single-family home inventory trends through August 2023

Fig. 6 - US homeownership rate trends by age range

Source: US Census, Haver, UBS Source: NAR, Haver, UBS

One of the key contributors to this dearth of available inventory is the “lock-in effect” of existing home mortgages carrying interest rates significantly below current rates. As the data in Fig. 5 indicates, 61% of existing mortgages have a mortgage rate less than 4% while another 20% have a rate between 4%-5%.

Fig. 5 - Share of outstanding mortgages by interest rate at origination as of 1Q 2023

If all that were not enough, there has been a chronic underbuilding of single-family homes in the US following the global financial crisis (Fig. 7). The combination of greater capital discipline among homebuilders, particularly large, public builders and tightening lending standards has resulted in a substantial shortage of single-family homes.

As such, it is likely the supply demand/imbalance is likely to remain unfavorable as long as mortgage rates remain elevated.

Fig. 7 - Single-family home supply and construction trends, January 1990-August 2023

Source: FHFA, UBS

Further exacerbating the supply issue is that only some 2/3 of the 85mn single-family homes in the country have a mortgage – the balance are mortgage free. As such, anyone seeking to move is likely facing substantially higher monthly payments given the significant increase in both home prices and mortgage rates. While the public homebuilders are doing their best to increase the supply of available for-sale homes, the existing home market represents the bulk of annual home sales (85%-90%).

An additional contributor to this lack of supply is the significantly higher homeownership rate among people older than 55 (Fig. 6). It is likely that there is a significantly higher proportion of low to no mortgage debt on homes owned by these households. In addition, there is an increasing trend of aging in place for longer among many households.

Source: US Census, Haver, UBS

3) Will home prices head higher or lower in 2024?

The challenge in definitively answering this question is the diametrically opposed forces of lack of supply vs extended unaffordability. As can be seen in Fig. 8, existing singlefamily home prices rose substantially during the pandemic as many people decamped large, dense cities for larger homes in less dense, more affordable areas. The outsized increase in prices combined with the declining affordability referenced in Figs. 1 and 2 has resulted in a substantial decline in existing home sales. The pace of further price appreciation is predicated on a number of factors including, but not limited to, 1) the future direction of mortgage rates, 2) the potential for a recession, 3) a change in lending standards/ policy changes from the Federal Reserve, FHFA and other

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banking regulators, 4) the level of existing home inventory and 5) the rent/buy calculus.

Fig 9 - Quarterly bank CRE lending trends 2Q 2015 – 2Q 2023 - $MM

Based on our outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates and the attendant dearth of available inventory, we believe there is the potential for a modest increase in home prices in 2024.

At a minimum we believe the supply/demand fundamentals are likely to help mitigate a significant decline in prices. It is crucial to emphasize that our comments are predicated on a broad, national outlook and local market dynamics could substantially impact the outlook for home prices in a given metro.

Fig. 8 - Existing single-family home unit sales and median price trends – data through August 2023

Source: Federal Reserve, UBS

In addition to bank CRE mortgage lending, the public REITs have been able to access the capital markets, something that was quite different during the global financial crisis when the capital markets were completely shut. Although capital raising is down from 2020/2021 levels (Fig. 10) the fact that REITs can access both equity and unsecured debt is an incremental positive for CRE.

Fig. 10 - Public REIT capital raising activity trends Source: Haver, NAR, UBS

4) Is the worst yet to come for commercial real estate?

Pursuant to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier in 2023 as well as challenges at several other banks, two of the most frequent headlines that have dominated the media are “commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop” and “this will be a repeat of 2008/2009.”

We do not dispute that there is likely to be an increase in the amount of distressed CRE debt and properties going forward. Without minimizing the impact of distress on existing investors we believe there are several factors that differentiate the current cycle from the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC).

Bank lending has slowed but has not been shut off. As can be seen in Fig. 9, the pace of lending by banks to CRE has slowed from the torrid pace preceding the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. However, this marks a key difference from the GFC when banks completely shut off lending and were canceling existing lines of credit. We do not wish to oversell this as much of the bank lending is going to existing relationships. However, as banks account for some 50% of total outstanding CRE loans, this channel remaining open is crucial for the CRE market.

Source: SNL, NAREIT, UBS

Private equity is currently sitting on USD 420bn of unlevered dry powder with some USD 340bn targeted to CRE debt, distressed, opportunistic and value-add investments (Fig 11).

Assuming conservative leverage of 50%, this represents USD 840bn of potential buying power.

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Fig. 11 - Private equity CRE dry powder trends segmented by investment strategy - $bn

Source: Preqin, UBS

Digging a bit deeper into the data, the top 10 and 25 funds are currently sitting on dry powder targeted to CRE debt, distressed, opportunistic and value-add investments of USD 72.4bn and USD 92.3bn (41.7% and 53.2%), respectively (Fig. 12). In addition, for the top 10 and 25 funds, this dry powder represents 87.8% and 81% of total assets under management, respectively. In our view, the significant level of dry powder concentrated in the hands of larger funds that have significant operational resources and multiple avenues of capital access will likely be well positioned to transact more aggressively as distressed debt and assets hit the market, thus potentially limiting the downside impact. We should also emphasize that the above figures only pertain to funds targeted to US-based investments.

Fig. 12 - Dry powder distribution for the top 300 private equity firms for investments targeted towards CRE debt, distressed, opportunistic and value-add investments

Source: CoStar, Preqin, UBS

In addition to the funds currently in the market, 294 additional funds have either been announced or are in the process of fund raising. According to data from CoStar and Preqin, these funds are targeting almost USD 111bn in capital. At 50% leverage, this represents and additional USD 220bn in potential buying power assuming all the capital is raised.

5) Could office conversion be an answer to housing supply in big cities?

On its face this appears to be an optimal solution to mitigate two significant problems. However, the reality is likely to be far less encouraging. We are quite cognizant of the challenges of converting office space to residential. Whether it is floor plates that are too large, ceiling heights that are too low (particularly older office buildings), windows that do not open, plumbing that is not conducive to individual apartment units, etc., developers would, in many cases, need to buy the building for land value (or less) to make a conversion economical and earn a reasonable riskadjusted return. In addition, it is highly likely that developer tax incentives at the local/state level as well as re-zoning and floor-to-area (FAR) adjustments will be necessary to make office-to-residential conversions viable. A number of real estate developers and advisory firms have pegged the conversion potential at 10-15% of existing office stock. It should be emphasized that this will vary significantly by city as building age, zoning rules and tax incentives differ broadly.

6) Where could we see the best opportunities in real estate right now?

Among the more attractive real estate opportunities we see in real estate that we believe will bear fruit over the next several years include: 1) Distressed debt - Although we agree that increased distress is highly likely in many parts of the CRE sector, we are reminded of one of the first lessons we were taught in finance 101 – that is distinguishing between operational and financial distress. A sizeable portion of the office market is facing operational distress given hybrid work, smaller office footprints for many tenants, a flight to quality assets and intra-US migratory patterns. As such, investor interest in “catching a falling knife” in order to recapitalize these assets is likely to be low.

Conversely, we believe many CRE assets that are currently facing, or likely to face financial challenges are generally solid assets located in good markets. This is likely to be a source of significant opportunity for all the dry powder on the sidelines discussed previously. Although likely negative for existing investors in these assets, we believe increased distress provides a very attractive riskadjusted return opportunity for patient capital with a multiyear horizon. In many cases we believe savvy distresseddebt investors can achieve equity-like returns while investing higher up the capital structure.

2) Multifamily – We believe the multifamily (MF) sector has a bright outlook over the next several years largely driven by favorable demographic trends and a housing market that is largely unaffordable (as we discussed previously). The prime rental cohort is between the ages of 25-39. As can be seen

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if Fig. 13, that demographic represents 67.8mn people. In addition, as we noted in Fig. 6, the homeownership rate for this age cohort is 30+ percentage points below the national average.

Fig. 13 – US Population segmentation between the ages of 20-49

cost of capital for developers, we believe that a significant portion of those permitted units that have not been started may be shelved for quite some time. As such, it is possible that the new supply “tsunami” could be less negatively impactful than currently thought.

Fig. 15 – Multifamily units under construction in absolute units and as a percentage of existing inventory

Source: US Census, UBS

Another interesting demographic factor supporting the MF investment thesis is the 6.9mn people between the ages of 25-34 that are still living at home (Fig. 14). As these people move out of their parent’s homes, we believe a significant portion of them will opt to rent, at least initially.

Source: CoStar, UBS

Fig. 16 – National multifamily net absorption trends

Fig. 14 – Population of 25–34-year-olds that are still living at home

Source: CoStar, UBS

Fig. 17 – Multifamily starts and permit trends Source: US Census, UBS

The MF bears will point to the substantial new capacity additions the sector is facing. We are very cognizant of the negative impacts new capacity can have on net effective rent growth and do not wish to minimize the impact it is likely to have. That said, we would make several observations: 1) the number of units under construction has peaked on both an absolute and as a percentage of inventory basis and is already declining (Fig. 15); 2) national absorption trends appear to have stabilized, at least for now (Fig. 16); 3) starts have peaked and are declining (Fig. 17); and 4) the number of permitted units not started as a percentage of total permitted units has increased meaningfully since 1Q 2021 (Fig. 18). Given the very stringent lending standards, particularly for new development as well as the elevated

Source: US Census, UBS

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Fig. 18 – Permitted multifamily units not yet started

Fig. 20 – Industrial net absorption trends in square feet

Source: CoStar, UBS Source: US Census, UBS

Fig. 21 – Industrial rent/square foot trends 3) Industrial/warehouse - Same as it (almost) ever was Aside from office we believe the most controversial sector among investors coming into 2023 was industrial. This is not because the fundamentals are bad (quite the opposite) but that things could not get any better and would likely soften. We do not disagree that the incredible rent growth the industrial sector has experienced over the past several years cannot go on forever. However, we believe that the sector is much better positioned over the next several years than the bears believe and, in our opinion, the Q2 results from the industrial REITs largely supported our view.

The bears will point to vacancy rates that have increased approximately 100 bps from the all-time lows achieved in 2Q 2022 (Fig. 19) and that absorption rates declined meaningfully from the same point (Fig. 20). In addition, the bears will point to the data in Fig. 21 as supportive of their argument that rental growth rates are slowing.

Fig. 19 – Industrial vacancy rate trends

Source: CoStar, UBS

We do not dispute any of these points as they are factual.

However, we would make several observations: 1) the peak rent growth rates of some 12% were far above any level the industrial sector ever achieved and came during a unique period driven by the pandemic-induced dislocations; 2) at a current rent growth rate of 9% the sector would still be far ahead of its long-term averages; 3) although it is certainly possible that YOY rent growth rates could decline further, we would point to the data in Fig. 22 which points to a peak in the rate of new supply in 3Q 2022 and the subsequent downward trend in new construction.

Fig. 22 – Industrial new construction in 000 of square feet and as a percentage of existing inventory

Source: CoStar, UBS

Source: CoStar, UBS

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Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update

September 2023 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development National housing market indicators available as of September showed overall activity in housing markets slowed. Trends in some of the top indicators for this month include: •

Purchases of new homes fell. New single-family home sales declined 8.7 percent to 675,000 units (SAAR) in August from an upwardly revised pace of 739,000 in July but were 5.8 percent higher year-over-year (y/y). Sales rose in the Northeast but declined in the Midwest, South, and West Census regions. New home sales are based on purchase agreements, unlike existing home sales which are based on closings. Note that monthly data on new home sales tend to be volatile. (Sources: HUD and Census Bureau)

•

Existing home sales fell slightly. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that August sales of existing homes (including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives) slipped 0.7 percent to 4.04 million units (SAAR) from 4.07 million in July and were down 15.3 percent y/y. Purchases rose in the Midwest, remained the same in the Northeast, and declined in the South and West Census regions. Because existing home sales are based on closings, August sales reflect contract signings in June and July. Month-to-month (m/m) house prices have increased modestly in the last several months, but mortgage rates have trended up recently, and inventories of existing homes for sale are still lean.

•

Construction of new single-family homes declined. Single-family housing starts, at 941,000 units (SAAR) in August, decreased 4.3 percent m/m from 983,000 units in July but were 2.4 percent higher y/y. Multifamily housing starts (5+ units in a structure), at 334,000 units (SAAR), dropped 26.3 percent m/m from 453,000 units in July and were 41.0 percent lower y/y. Note that m/m changes in multifamily starts are often volatile. (Sources: HUD, Census Bureau)

•

Annual house prices accelerated in June, with annual increases ranging from 0.1 percent to 4.6 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted (SA) purchase-only house price index for July estimated that home values rose 0.8 percent m/m and 4.6 percent y/y, up from an annual gain of 3.2 percent in June. The non-SA CoreLogic Case-Shiller® 20-City Home Price Index, posted a 0.6 percent m/m increase (0.9 percent SA) in home values in July and a 0.1 percent y/y gain, a reversal of the 1.2 percent annual decline in June. Mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, a process that began in April 2022. House prices peaked in June 2022 and began to decline modestly but that trend has reversed itself recently. The FHFA (SA) index is now 4.1 percent

above its previous June 2022 peak and the Case-Shiller index now stands at 0.6 percent (SA) below its June peak. (Both price indices are released with a 2-month lag.)

•

The inventory of homes for sale rose for new homes but fell for existing homes. The listed inventory of new homes for sale, at 436,000 units at the end of August, was up 1.2 percent m/m but down 5.2 percent y/y. That inventory would support 7.8 months of sales at the current sales pace, up from 7.0 months in July. Available existing homes for sale, at 1.10 million units in August, slipped 0.9 percent m/m and were down 14.1 percent y/y. That inventory represents a 3.3-month supply, the same as the previous month because both inventory and sales declined slightly. The long-term average for months’ supply of homes on the market is 6.0 months.

•

In the second quarter of 2023, homeowners’ equity increased after declining for three consecutive quarters; the number of underwater borrowers declined. The Federal Reserve estimated that homeowners’ equity (total property value less mortgage debt outstanding) rose 8.0 percent, or $2.34 trillion, from the first quarter of 2023 and now stands at more than $31.6 trillion.

Owners’ equity peaked in the second quarter of 2022 at $32.2 trillion and declined more than $2.9 trillion over the subsequent three quarters. Changes in home prices are the primary driver of gains or losses in equity. For the second quarter of 2023, CoreLogic estimated the number of underwater borrowers (those who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their home) decreased by 75,000 from the first quarter to 1.111 million, or 2.0 percent of residential properties with a mortgage, but were 47,000 greater than one year ago.

•

Forbearance on mortgage loans continued to decline. The MBA Forbearance Survey indicates the share of homeowners with mortgages in forbearance was 0.33 percent (165,000 households) in August, down from 0.39 percent in July and 0.72 percent (362,000 households) one year ago. The forbearance rate was only 0.25 percent of all home loans in the beginning of March 2020, before the economic effects of the COVID pandemic began to be felt.

•

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) has reached its highest level in nearly 23 years. The average weekly 30-year FRM was 7.31 percent the week ending September 28, up from a high of 7.23 percent the week ending August 24 the previous month. The mortgage rate rose steadily in 2022 as the Fed increased interest rates, reaching a high of 7.08 percent in November 2022 and then trended down to a low of 6.09 percent in February 2023 as inflation appeared to be retreating. Indications of ongoing economic strength have recently put upward pressure on mortgage rates. (Source: Freddie Mac)

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 1

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023

Month-to-Month House Prices Rose in July

Sales Fell for New and Existing Homes

Monthly House Price Trends by Index ($ Thousands)

Monthly Sales (Thousands)

425

8000

400 375 350 325

CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index

300

CoreLogic (Excluding Distressed Sales)

275

FHFA Purchase-Only Index

225 200 175

1200

5000

1000

4000

800

2000

200 0

New Construction Fell for Single-Family and Multifamily Housing

Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale Rose for New Homes but Remained the Same for Existing Homes National Months’ Supply of New and Existing Homes (Months) 14

Existing Homes Months’ Supply

New Homes Months’ Supply

8

National Housing Starts (Thousands) 1400

700

1200

600

1000 800

6

500

Single-Family Starts

400 300

600

4 2

400

1000

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, Census Bureau, and HUD. See Note 2, Sources and Methodology.

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Federal Housing Finance Agency, CoreLogic, and HUD. See Note 1, Sources and Methodology.

10

600

New Home Sales (right axis)

0

150

12

1400

6000

3000

250

1600

Existing Home Sales

7000

Historic Average

0

400 200 0

Sources: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, and HUD.

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Sources: Census Bureau and HUD.

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 2

Multifamily Starts (right axis)

200 100 0

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023

Rental Affordability Remains a Challenge Due to Rising Rents

Homeownership Affordability Remains Below Historic Norm, Mortgage Rates Up Markedly from Near Record Lows Percentage Rates and Index Values

220

260

180

220 200

140

160

120

140 120

100

100

Foreclosure Filings Remain Low

Q4

Q4

20

22

Q4

20

21

Q4

20

Q4

19

20

20

Q4

20

18

Q4

20

17

Q4

20

16

Q4

20

15

Q4

20

14

Q4

20

13

Q4

20

12

Q4

20

11

Q4

20

10

Q4

20

09

Q4

08

Q4

07

20

Q4

06

20

20

Q4

20

05

Q4

20

04

Q4

Homeowners’ Equity Rose in the Second Quarter of 2023 After Declining for Three Quarters

Monthly Foreclosure Actions (Thousands) (Includes Investor, Second Home, and Jumbo Properties) 240 200 160

Foreclosure Starts

80 40

03

NOTE: The Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 rental prices underlying the RAI are partially based on CPS/HVS surveys conducted under COVID restrictions and should be viewed with caution. Normal data collection resumed starting Q3 2021. The RAI is partially based on annual ACS rental prices of recent movers which were also affected by COVID. The HAI and RAI reflect quarterly seasonal changes in prices. See Note 3 and Section C. Sources: Census ACS, BLS, CPS, HUD, and NAR®.

The historic norm of 130 is the median value of NAR’s housing affordability index since 1989.

Sources: Freddie Mac and National Association of REALTORS®.

120

20

Q4 00

60

2

Q4

80

80

02

Affordability Index Historic Norm

20

3

HUD Rental Affordability Index (RAI)

160

180 4

NAR Homeownership Affordability Index (HAI)

200

240

20

5

280

01

6

NAR Housing Affordability Index (right axis)

20

30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate

Rental and Homeownership Index Values

240

300

7

Foreclosure Completions

0

Foreclosure starts are default notices or scheduled foreclosure auctions, depending on the state.

Source: ATTOM Data Solutions.

See Note 4, Sources and Methodology.

Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate at End of Period ($ Trillions)

34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 3

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023

The National Homeownership Rate Decreased in the Second Quarter*

FHA Mortgage Lending

FHA as Share of Quarterly Mortgage Originations by Type (Percent)

National Homeownership Rate (Percent)

70

45 40

69 68

35

Nation

67

30

66

25

65

20

64

15

63

10

Historic National Norm

62

5

61

0 Q1

Q1

20

23

Q1

20

22

Q1

20

21

Q1

20

20

Q1

20

19

Q1

18

Q1

17

20

20

Q1

20

16

Q1

20

15

Q1

20

14

Q1

20

13

Q1

20

12

Q1

20

11

Q1

20

10

Q1

20

09

Q1

08

Q1

07

20

20

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

05

Q1

20

04

Q1

03

20

02

20

20

01

Q1

60

*NOTE: The Q2 2020 through Q2 2021 homeownership rates are based on surveys conducted under COVID-19 restrictions and should be viewed with caution. Normal data collection procedures resumed starting Q3 2021.

The historic norm of 65.2 percent is the average national homeownership rate since 1965.

See Section C, Sources and Methodology.

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, and HUD.

Housing Insecurity

Share of Renter and Homeowner Households Behind on Housing Payments (Percent) 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4

Purchase

Combined

Households Fearful of Losing Their Homes

Share of Renter and Homeowner Households Viewing Loss of Home as Imminent (Percent) 10

Renters Behind on Lease Payments

Refinance

Sources: MBA and HUD. See Note 5, Sources and Methodology.

Renters Fearful Eviction Is Imminent

9 8 7 6 5

Homeowners Behind on Mortgage Payments

4

Homeowners Fearful Foreclosure Is Imminent

3 2 1 0

NOTE: Phase 3.10 of the Census Household Pulse Survey began August 23, 2023 with Week 61 and continues through October 30, 2023. This phase continues with the format of collecting data every other two weeks.

See Note 7 and Section C, Sources and Methodology.

Sources: Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and HUD.

NOTE: Phase 3.10 of the Census Household Pulse Survey began August 23, 2023 with Week 61 and continues through October 30, 2023. This phase continues with the format of collecting data every other two weeks.

See Note 7 and Section C, Sources and Methodology.

Sources: Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and HUD.

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 4

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023

HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET Indicator

This Period

Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) Homeownership Affordability (index) Rental Affordability (index) Home Prices (indices) CoreLogic Case-Shiller (NSA) FHFA (SA) CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA) Home Sales New (thousands, SAAR) Existing (thousands, SAAR) First-Time Buyers (thousands, SAAR) Distressed Sales (percent, NSA) Housing Supply New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA) New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months, SA) Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA) Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months) Vacant Units Held off Market (thousands) Housing Starts Total (thousands, SAAR) Single-Family (thousands, SAAR) Multifamily (thousands, SAAR) Mortgage Originations (thousands) Purchase Originations Refinance Originations FHA Mortgage Originations (thousands) Refinance Originations Purchase Originations Purchases by First-Time Buyers Mortgage Loans in Forbearance (percent) Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent) Prime Subprime FHA Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands) Prime Subprime FHA Renter Households - Ability to Pay Rent Behind on Rental Payments (%) Fearful of Imminent Eviction (%) Homeowner Households - Ability to Pay Mortgage Behind on Mortgage Payments (%) Fearful of Imminent Foreclosure (%) Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) Underwater Borrowers (thousands) National Homeownership Rate (percent) Foreclosure Actions (thousands) Foreclosure Starts Foreclosure Completions Short Sales REO Sales

Last Period

Year Ago

Latest Release

7.31 (s) 87.8 94.3

7.19 87.8 92.1

6.70 99.6 99.3

28-Sep-23 July-23 2nd Q 23

316.7 409.5 300.7 (s)

314.8 (r) 406.1 (r) 299.3 (r,s)

316.3 391.5 293.8 (s)

July-23 July-23 July-23

675 4,040 1,367 (s) 2

739 (r) 4,070 1,395 (s,r) 2

638 4,770 1,568 (s) 1

August-23 August-23 August-23 July-23

436 7.8 1,100 3.3 3,629

431 (r) 7.0 (r) 1,110 3.3 3,611

460 8.7 1,280 3.2 3,711

August-23 August-23 August-23 August-23 2nd Q 23

1,283 941 334

1,447 (r) 983 453 (r)

1,505 919 566

August-23 August-23 August-23

1,014.2 348.0

769.0 (r) 255.3 (r)

1,319.2 712.3

2nd Q 23 2nd Q 23

16.1 (p) 61.3 (p) 50.2 (p) 0.33 (s)

13.5 55.9 45.7 0.39 (s)

17.0 59.9 49.6 0.72

August-23 August-23 August-23 31-Aug-23

1.4 (s) 15.4 (s) 10.4

1.4 (s) 15.6 (s) 10.4

1.5 15.8 9.9

August-23 August-23 August-23

229 (s) 21 (s) 297

240 (r,s) 21 (s) 307

327 30 350

August-23 August-23 August-23

12.0 (s) 4.1 (s)

12.6 5.1

14.2 6.4

7-Aug-23 7-Aug-23

5.3 (s) 0.98 (s) 2,342 1,111 65.9 (s)

5.0 0.91 -353 (r) 1,186 (r) 66.0 (s)

5.2 1.01 1,970 1,064 65.8

7-Aug-23 7-Aug-23 2nd Q 23 2nd Q 23 2nd Q 23

22.9 3.4 2.1 (p) 4.2 (p)

21.0 3.3 2.5 (r) 5.5 (r)

24.0 3.9 2.2 4.6

August-23 August-23 July-23 July-23

SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, SAAR = SA annual rate, p = preliminary, r = revised, s = see Additional Notes in Sources

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 5

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023 A. Items in Table

Description

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Frequency Sources

Notes on Methodology

Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM)

Weekly

Freddie Mac

As reported for 30-year fixed rate mortgages (FRM). See note in Section C for basis of rates as of November 2022.

Homeownership Affordability

Monthly

National Association of REALTORS® NAR’s Housing Affordability (Fixed Rate) Index as reported. A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify.

Rental Affordability

Quarterly

HUD

HUD’s Rental Affordability Index measures whether a typical renter household has enough income to qualify for a lease on a typical rental home at the national level based on the most recent price and income data. A typical renter household is one that earns median income and a typical rental home is a median-priced rental unit. It is assumed that a renter household can qualify for a lease if the annual rent is not greater than 30 percent of the renter household’s annual income. A value of 100 means that a renter household with median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a lease on a medianpriced rental home. An index value above 100 signifies that a household earning the median income of renter households has more than enough income to qualify. For more information on HUD’s rental affordability index and methodology, see the Second Quarter 2016 issue of HUD’s National Housing Market Summary on their U.S. Housing Market Conditions website: http://www.huduser.gov/portal/ ushmc/home.html.

CoreLogic Case-Shiller (NSA)

Monthly

Standard and Poor’s

Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s recommends use of non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) index when making monthly comparisons.

FHFA (SA)

Monthly

Federal Housing Finance Agency

FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for U.S., January 1991 = 100.

CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA)

Monthly

CoreLogic

CoreLogic national combined index, distressed sales excluded, January 2000 = 100. (Only available as NSA). Also see additional note in Section C below on the CoreLogic HPI.

New

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

Seasonally adjusted annual rates. A newly constructed house is considered sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs before construction has actually started.

Existing

Monthly

National Association of REALTORS® Seasonally adjusted annual rates. Existing-home sales—which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.

First-Time Buyers

Monthly

NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD

Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National Association of REALTORS® annual estimate of first-time buyer share of existing home sales.

Distressed Sales (NSA)

Monthly

CoreLogic

Short sales and REO (Real Estate Owned) sales as a percentage of total existing home sales (current month subject to revision).

Total (SAAR)

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

Housing starts are divided into three components: single-family, multifamily, and two-to-four unit structures. Start of construction occurs when excavation begins for the footings or foundation of a building.

As of September 1992, housing starts include units being totally rebuilt on an existing foundation.

Single-Family (SAAR)

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

Single-family housing includes fully detached, semi-detached (semi-attached, side-by-side), townhouses, and row houses. For attached units, each must be separated from the adjacent unit by a ground-to-roof firewall to be classified as a single-family structure. Also, these units must not share common facilities (i.e., heating/air-conditioning systems, plumbing, attic, or basement). Units built one on top of another and those built side-by-side that do not have a ground-to-roof firewall or have common facilities are not considered single-family units.

Multifamily (SAAR)

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

Multifamily housing has five or more units in a structure.

New Homes for Sale (SA)

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

As reported.

New Homes for Sale Months’ Supply (SA)

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

As reported.

Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)

Monthly

National Association of REALTORS® As reported.

Existing Homes Months’ Supply

Monthly

National Association of REALTORS® As reported.

Vacant Units Held off Market

Quarterly

Census Bureau

As reported in Census CPS/HPS Table 4. Estimates of Housing Inventory, line item “Year-round vacant, held off market for reasons other than occasional use, or usually reside elsewhere.” Vacant units can be held off the market for a variety of reasons.

Refinance Originations

Quarterly

Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD

HUD estimate of the number of refinance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refinance originations.

Purchase Originations

Quarterly

Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD

HUD estimate of the number of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of home purchase originations.

Refinance Originations

Monthly

HUD

Purchase Originations

Monthly

HUD

FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.

Purchases by First-Time Buyers

Monthly

HUD

Home Prices

Home Sales (SAAR)

Housing Starts

Housing Supply

Mortgage Originations

FHA Originations

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 6

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023 A. Items in Table (continued) Mortgage Loans in Forbearance

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Monthly

Mortgage Bankers Association

Monthly Forbearance and Call Volume Survey, as reported for total number of loans in forbearance as a percent of number of servicing portfolio loans. Data are based on approximately 36.4 million loans, or 73 percent of the first mortgage servicing market. The survey was transformed from a weekly to a monthly survey beginning November 2021.

Prime

Monthly

Black Knight Financial Services

Total conventional mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by conventional mortgages actively serviced.

Subprime

Monthly

Black Knight Financial Services

Total conventional mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by conventional mortgages actively serviced.

FHA

Monthly

HUD

Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.

Prime

Monthly

LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD

Conventional mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.

Subprime

Monthly

LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD

Conventional mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.

FHA

Monthly

HUD

Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.

Renter Households Ability to Pay Rent

Every Other 2 Weeks

Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey

Data are collected over a 2-week period. The Survey began April 23, 2020. Data are weighted by number of households; data posted on the Census website are weighted by population.

Behind on Rental Payments

Census Household Pulse Survey and HUD

Data weighted by # of households; 2021 AHS estimates 45.99 million U.S. renter households.

Not at All Confident in Ability to Pay Rent on Time

Census Household Pulse Survey and HUD

Data weighted by # of households; 2021 AHS estimates 45.99 million U.S. renter households.

Fearful of Imminent Eviction

Census Household Pulse Survey and HUD

Respondent answered “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to the question: How likely is it that your household will have to leave this home or apartment within the next two months because of eviction?

Census Household Pulse Survey

Data are collected over a 2-week period. The Survey began April 23, 2020. Data are weighted by number of households; data posted on the Census website are weighted by population.

Behind on Mortgage Payments

Census Household Pulse Survey and HUD

Data weighted by # of households; 2021 AHS estimates 82.5 million U.S. homeowner households.

Not at All Confident in Ability to Pay Mortgage on Time

Census Household Pulse Survey and HUD

Data weighted by # of households; 2021 AHS estimates 82.5 million U.S. homeowner households.

Fearful of Imminent Foreclosure

Census Household Pulse Survey and HUD

Respondent answered “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to the following question: How likely is it that your household will have to leave this home within the next two months because of foreclosure?

Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

Homeowner Households Ability to Pay Mortgage

Every Other 2 Weeks

Change in Aggregate Home Equity

Quarterly

Federal Reserve Board

Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.

Underwater Borrowers

Quarterly

CoreLogic

As reported.

National Homeownership Rate

Quarterly

Census Bureau

Homeownership in the U.S. as a percentage of all households.

Foreclosure Starts

Monthly

ATTOM Data Solutions (Formerly RealtyTrac)

Foreclosure starts are reported counts of notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state.

Foreclosure Completions

Monthly

ATTOM Data Solutions

Real Estate Owned (REO).

Short Sales

Monthly

CoreLogic

Count of Short Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision).

REO Sales

Monthly

CoreLogic

Count of REO (Real Estate Owned) Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision).

Foreclosure Actions

B. Notes on Charts 1. Monthly house price trends, shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing home sold in January 2003, as reported by the National Association of REALTORS®. Indices shown: S&P/CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January 2000 = 100, FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for U.S. (SA), January 1991 = 100, and CoreLogic-Distressed Sales Excluded (Monthly) for U.S. (NSA), January 2000 = 100. Also see additional note below in Section C on the CoreLogic HPI. 2. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales.

3. A comparison of the affordability of renting a home to purchasing a home. HUD’s Quarterly Rental Affordability Index is compared to NAR’s Composite Quarterly Affordability Index.

See note in Section A on Rental Affordability.

4. Filings of a notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state, are reported for foreclosure starts. Foreclosure completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by ATTOM Data Solutions (formerly RealtyTrac).

5. FHA market shares are FHA purchase and refinance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refinance mortgage originations, as noted in “Mortgage Originations” above.

See additional note below on FHA market share.

6. See notes in Section A on renter and homeowner households’ ability to make rental or mortgage payments. The results represent a “No” in response to the question, “Is this household currently caught up on their rent or mortgage payment?” Results prior to the two-week period ending August 31, 2020, are not presented because the survey question then was, “Did you pay your last month’s rent or mortgage payment on time?”

7. See notes in Section A on renter and homeowner households fearful of eviction or foreclosure. For renter households, the results represent a “Very Likely” or “Somewhat Likely” response to the question, “How likely is it that your household will have to leave this home or apartment within the next two months because of eviction?” For homeowner households, the results represent a “Very Likely” or “Somewhat Likely” response to the question, “How likely is it that your household will have to leave this home within the next two months because of foreclosure?”

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 7

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | September 2023

C. Additional Notes

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

As of November 17, 2022, Freddie Mac no longer surveys lenders, but instead, bases its mortgage rate estimates on thousands of applications received from lenders and submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage.

Beginning in May 2019, NAR replaced its Monthly Composite Housing Affordability Index (HAI), which was based on 30-year fixed rate mortgages (FRM) and adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), with a Fixed HAI based only on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

Black Knight enhanced their database as of December 2017 data, increasing their database coverage by nearly 1 million additional loans through several new contributors and improved coverage of certain types of data. In addition, HUD added filters to make sure all FHA and VA loans were excluded from the data to ensure reporting of only conventional loans. The November 2017 changes in reported data are mainly due to the additional filters.

FHA market share estimates were based on new methodology beginning with the October 2013 report; estimates were revised back through Q1 2011. See the FHA Market Share report on their website for an explanation of the new methodology: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly.

The estimate for first-time buyers was 26 percent for 2022, based on NAR’s 2022 annual report, A Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. The estimate was down sharply from 34 percent for 2021 with the October 2021 release of findings from their annual survey and the lowest rate since NAR began tracking the data in 1981. The annual reporting of first-time buyers differs from NAR’s monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index survey because the annual survey, for the most part, represents purchases of homes by owner-occupants and does not include purchases by investors, as in the monthly survey.

CoreLogic’s House Price Index (HPI) estimates are based on new methodology beginning with their June 2016 report, which includes data through April 2016. A variety of modeling and other enhancements to their HPI and its forecast, including a 14-percent expansion in the number of transaction pairs, were made.

MBA switched to reporting monthly forbearance data in place of weekly data starting November 2021.

Data for Week 61, the first Pulse Survey of Phase 3.10, started August 23, 2023 and continues through October 30, 2023. During Phase 3.10, data collection will continue with the sequence of every other two weeks.

The BLS Consumer Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) is conducted by the Census Bureau and collects data on indicators used in this report, including the homeownership rate, housing units held off market, and housing rental prices. The Bureau views the 2Q 2020 through 2Q 2021 period as a break in series because COVID-19 prevented normal data collection procedures. The Census Bureau suspended in-person interviews on March 20, 2020 and conducted the survey for the rest of the first quarter and the entirety of the second quarter solely by telephone interviews. In-person interviews were incrementally added back in the subsequent four quarters with respective rates of 63, 94, 98, and 99 percent of in-person interviews allowed. Normal data collection procedures resumed in Q3 2021 with less than one-half of one percent of in-person interviews restricted. As an example of the break in series, the national homeownership rate, at 65.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, was estimated to have jumped to 67.9 in the second quarter of 2020 and decline to 65.4 percent by the second quarter of 2021. The changes in survey methods likely contributed to the sharp increase and following decline in the homeownership rate during that time period. See Source and Accuracy release https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html.

September 2023 Housing Market Indicators | Page 8

National Association of REALTORS® Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas Metropolitan Area

2020

2021

2022

2022.II

2022.III

2022.IV

2023.I r

2023.II p

(Not Seasonally Adjusted, 000s)

Q2-Q2 %Chya

U.S.

300.2

357.1

392.8

412.7

398.1

378.4

371.0

402.6

NE

341.7

394.1

426.0

438.7

444.3

411.1

394.1

452.6

3.2%

MW

235.4

263.3

281.9

297.5

289.8

270.1

263.6

301.8

1.4%

CBSA Code

SO

265.1

317.5

359.5

376.0

363.2

349.1

345.9

367.7

-2.2%

WE

451.5

558.8

617.1

646.1

619.4

585.0

559.3

608.7

-5.8%

10180

Abilene, TX

193.5

215.4

239.0

255.8

251.0

234.9

238.2

235.1

-8.1%

10420

Akron, OH

168.1

179.8

196.7

206.8

215.5

192.3

172.7

206.0

-0.4%

10580

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

232.5

257.6

279.6

285.6

295.4

275.9

259.8

296.3

3.7%

10740

Albuquerque, NM

248.1

292.5

336.6

345.4

339.5

336.5

335.2

361.4

4.6%

10900

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

234.9

266.4

297.2

296.1

314.8

299.8

298.0

330.7

11.7%

11100

Amarillo, TX

183.5

202.1

218.4

227.1

224.0

214.3

210.2

223.6

-1.5%

11244

Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA

900.0

1099.0

1235.0

1300.0

1200.0

1132.0

1195.5

1250.0

-3.8%

11260

Anchorage, AK

358.3

380.6

408.4

438.8

405.8

391.5

395.6

441.0

0.5%

11460

Ann Arbor, MI

312.4

348.8

373.8

408.7

377.2

354.6

360.1

428.5

4.8%

11500

Anniston-Oxford, AL

134.2

154.7

164.8

169.2

167.2

163.3

160.3

180.0

6.4%

11540

Appleton, WI

202.8

241.0

263.9

276.1

272.3

253.6

274.9

284.7

3.1%

11700

Asheville, NC

326.4

378.6

426.9

440.8

438.1

420.0

435.2

456.0

3.4%

12020

Athens-Clarke County, GA

291.5

293.1

349.4

363.9

354.0

332.2

349.9

385.4

5.9%

12060

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

260.8

317.2

365.1

379.7

371.2

353.3

354.3

376.5

-0.8%

12100

Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ

247.2

293.3

319.2

332.9

321.7

312.4

288.7

317.5

-4.6%

12420

Austin-Round Rock, TX

367.1

488.6

555.4

613.2

541.6

478.9

467.9

496.3

-19.1%

12540

Bakersfield, CA

276.9

323.2

364.6

375.0

361.2

363.5

358.9

371.9

-0.8%

12580

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

328.5

358.1

378.2

396.2

390.6

363.5

357.8

399.8

0.9%

12700

Barnstable Town, MA

494.6

617.8

683.0

721.8

684.2

668.1

672.7

711.5

-1.4%

12940

Baton Rouge, LA

229.7

249.4

269.2

275.2

271.6

267.1

262.9

268.6

-2.4%

13140

Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX

180.3

199.7

214.7

221.7

214.0

207.3

209.7

214.8

-3.1%

13780

Binghamton, NY

127.7

145.5

152.4

155.8

158.9

156.7

141.8

160.0

2.7%

13820

Birmingham-Hoover, AL

246.2

271.2

303.9

318.8

308.0

295.7

276.5

315.8

-0.9%

13900

Bismarck, ND

261.4

273.7

271.0

286.1

270.1

266.3

258.5

277.4

-3.0%

13980

Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA

225.2

250.2

272.2

289.1

283.3

247.5

255.7

308.4

6.7%

14010

Bloomington, IL

165.9

184.3

208.8

219.2

217.7

199.7

196.9

239.0

9.0%

14260

Boise City-Nampa, ID

353.9

468.6

491.6

521.8

483.8

457.8

440.7

480.8

-7.9%

14460

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

563.7

642.2

685.6

722.2

698.9

657.9

644.4

734.2

1.7%

14500

Boulder, CO

645.9

782.7

857.8

933.4

826.9

759.5

836.9

871.2

-6.7%

14540

Bowling Green, KY

198.7

236.4

256.5

261.8

260.9

262.8

249.2

275.8

5.3%

14860

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT

544.0

630.0

657.7

700.6

687.0

621.1

600.7

722.4

3.1%

15380

Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY

178.5

209.9

230.0

237.2

243.8

227.8

206.8

236.8

-0.2%

15500

Burlington, NC

209.5

250.5

307.8

322.9

318.6

313.3

304.6

313.2

-3.0%

15540

Burlington-South Burlington, VT

342.9

389.2

442.2

462.7

453.7

430.5

429.5

486.5

5.1%

15940

Canton-Massillon, OH

155.4

168.8

175.0

179.4

181.3

169.6

178.1

188.8

5.2%

15980

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

289.0

360.0

430.0

460.1

420.0

414.3

434.0

439.0

-4.6%

16020

Cape Girardeau, MO-IL

169.3

186.4

202.0

201.2

213.7

211.1

196.5

222.1

10.4%

16300

Cedar Rapids, IA

173.1

182.8

196.4

201.0

207.7

194.3

186.3

207.2

3.1%

16580

Champaign-Urbana, IL

168.6

178.3

191.1

204.3

200.4

175.5

157.2

211.9

3.7%

16700

Charleston-North Charleston, SC

324.4

375.2

416.1

439.5

416.8

416.7

406.0

430.2

-2.1%

16620

Charleston, WV

147.5

161.3

167.4

174.7

171.8

161.3

156.6

173.5

-0.7%

16740

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

296.2

354.1

397.7

414.3

400.6

395.5

387.2

403.1

-2.7%

16860

Chattanooga, TN-GA

220.1

255.3

290.0

299.8

293.6

279.6

281.8

297.4

-0.8%

16940

Cheyenne, WY

282.8

320.6

354.7

367.3

358.0

342.9

341.2

363.2

-1.1%

16980

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

287.6

330.4

345.6

370.1

349.4

323.2

321.0

362.6

-2.0%

17020

Chico, CA

366.4

419.8

439.6

464.0

432.5

419.6

387.4

412.9

-11.0%

17140

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

208.9

243.4

263.0

277.9

268.4

255.3

252.2

294.2

5.9%

17420

Cleveland, TN

220.0

248.7

290.3

308.9

290.0

292.3

285.3

301.9

-2.3%

17460

Cleveland-Elyria, OH

179.5

198.8

215.7

225.6

227.7

208.7

191.4

228.7

1.4%

17820

Colorado Springs, CO

361.7

432.9

463.4

480.9

462.2

443.4

444.7

467.1

-2.9%

17860

Columbia, MO

225.4

255.0

288.9

304.0

287.6

282.6

290.6

310.1

2.0%

17900

Columbia, SC

202.9

233.2

269.9

277.9

278.0

264.0

262.8

277.6

-0.1%

18140

Columbus, OH

240.8

274.1

301.1

322.2

312.1

286.7

284.7

327.5

1.6%

18580

Corpus Christi, TX

225.4

250.0

273.4

281.6

281.0

268.2

263.7

274.9

-2.4%

18880

Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL

339.9

384.1

420.0

440.0

413.7

403.7

400.0

432.0

-1.8%

19060

Cumberland, MD-WV

120.9

132.9

134.8

139.0

136.6

132.3

120.0

145.4

4.6%

19100

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

287.2

336.7

385.5

408.2

390.1

375.0

372.4

389.8

-4.5%

19340

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

142.8

152.3

160.4

159.7

172.0

162.6

146.8

179.8

12.6%

19380

Dayton, OH

175.8

193.1

212.3

231.7

224.2

200.7

206.3

234.8

1.3%

19460

Decatur, AL

175.2

204.2

234.1

232.1

240.5

226.2

240.5

245.8

5.9%

19500

Decatur, IL

102.2

112.6

120.0

122.8

122.7

119.2

110.3

133.4

8.6%

19660

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

244.9

290.0

349.9

354.9

358.9

353.8

345.0

355.0

0.0%

©2023 National Association of REALTORS® All Rights Reserved.

May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS®.

For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

-2.4%

Metropolitan Area

2020

2021

2022

2022.II

2022.III

2022.IV

2023.I r

2023.II p

(Not Seasonally Adjusted, 000s)

Q2-Q2 %Chya

19740

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

492.7

607.1

670.1

695.8

666.0

640.0

636.1

674.5

19780

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

229.6

258.2

274.9

288.1

281.7

261.0

265.3

296.6

3.0%

19820

Detroit-Warren-Deaborn, MI

221.3

245.7

250.9

271.1

266.0

237.0

227.0

265.3

-2.1%

20100

Dover, DE

241.2

283.8

304.1

314.9

316.1

308.1

294.7

323.3

2.7%

20260

Duluth, MN-WI

197.1

218.9

233.2

241.1

241.1

224.9

217.7

276.3

14.6%

20500

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

326.3

397.9

453.6

491.8

458.5

425.6

412.6

495.5

0.8%

20524

Dutchess County-Putnam County, NY

350.1

397.0

431.8

442.9

453.7

419.8

397.0

434.7

-1.9%

21300

Elmira, NY

120.4

142.0

149.1

148.3

156.6

148.9

160.0

144.5

-2.6%

21340

El Paso, TX

177.8

200.8

237.1

236.5

241.5

244.5

224.2

221.8

-6.2%

21500

Erie, PA

135.1

146.6

158.3

159.7

166.8

158.8

155.3

169.0

5.8%

21660

Eugene, OR

354.9

417.1

463.9

471.2

475.3

459.5

451.0

475.4

0.9%

22020

Fargo, ND-MN

233.5

255.9

283.8

289.4

284.4

285.9

267.9

300.8

3.9%

22140

Farmington, NM

198.7

215.7

248.0

252.1

243.0

261.2

240.7

251.5

-0.2%

22180

Fayetteville, NC

163.2

189.8

217.9

222.6

227.4

220.9

220.3

239.8

7.7%

22220

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO

226.3

271.2

329.2

350.0

328.4

323.5

328.8

356.0

1.7%

22500

Florence, SC

166.5

183.2

206.8

204.9

216.1

195.7

204.0

208.2

1.6%

22540

Fond du Lac, WI

157.4

177.0

190.9

194.2

200.6

189.2

187.7

243.4

25.3%

22660

Fort Collins, CO

446.0

514.3

610.0

630.9

602.7

585.3

590.4

628.9

-0.3%

23060

Fort Wayne, IN

169.3

189.9

214.1

223.4

215.2

215.5

205.4

236.6

5.9%

23420

Fresno, CA

314.0

370.0

410.0

424.5

410.0

399.0

390.0

420.0

-1.1%

23540

Gainesville, FL

255.0

299.6

340.0

357.3

349.5

330.0

335.5

366.0

2.4%

23580

Gainesville, GA

280.9

345.0

393.9

419.0

395.2

379.6

383.5

420.4

0.3%

23844

Gary-Hammond, IN

203.4

223.3

247.1

252.1

257.5

242.3

236.9

260.9

3.5%

24020

Glens Falls, NY

200.1

231.1

245.9

240.4

257.2

252.4

229.5

225.5

-6.2%

24340

Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI

230.1

267.7

297.7

315.3

309.6

284.5

290.5

330.3

4.8%

24540

Greeley, CO

384.3

453.0

489.3

509.8

487.4

470.7

471.7

489.0

-4.1%

24580

Green Bay, WI

204.2

234.5

259.4

267.3

265.8

260.0

257.6

296.4

10.9%

24660

Greensboro-High Point, NC

199.2

228.6

270.3

278.3

278.9

276.1

266.2

287.0

3.1%

24860

Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC

240.9

279.1

322.3

329.0

335.4

318.8

310.0

333.9

1.5%

25060

Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoulia, MS

171.3

192.1

213.8

225.9

214.0

205.7

205.3

229.2

1.5%

25180

Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV

215.4

245.4

271.9

279.8

275.5

266.5

264.4

293.2

4.8%

25420

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

195.8

219.3

239.1

250.7

247.8

237.0

230.6

250.7

0.0%

25540

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

264.5

297.8

325.8

337.4

344.1

318.2

314.9

357.8

6.0%

25860

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC

197.3

231.2

257.3

262.7

255.5

268.2

271.6

284.0

8.1%

26420

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

263.8

304.1

345.0

357.2

349.5

337.9

327.0

348.3

-2.5%

26620

Huntsville, AL

248.0

280.4

324.9

327.6

327.5

334.8

313.6

324.3

-1.0%

26900

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN

227.6

260.5

294.6

303.3

301.4

297.2

289.3

311.2

2.6%

26980

Iowa City, IA

241.7

258.1

277.8

291.2

281.8

262.0

271.6

297.7

2.2%

27140

Jackson, MS

198.8

220.2

241.6

252.7

246.0

227.5

218.9

240.8

-4.7%

27260

Jacksonville, FL

279.0

325.0

386.5

396.0

398.0

386.0

370.0

390.9

-1.3%

27340

Jacksonville, NC

179.4

203.8

237.6

243.6

244.4

238.3

243.5

265.2

8.9%

27740

Johnson City, TN

189.2

231.5

263.6

279.0

275.9

254.0

253.9

294.3

5.5%

27900

Joplin, MO

143.0

158.7

177.7

189.3

175.2

173.2

173.4

188.3

-0.5%

28100

Kankakee, IL

159.0

176.9

188.7

201.8

188.7

177.4

158.3

196.8

-2.5%

28140

Kansas City, MO-KS

237.4

279.2

309.5

326.1

314.5

298.2

291.0

333.9

2.4%

28420

Kennewick-Richland, WA

328.5

380.9

440.3

446.3

444.7

417.0

425.4

428.9

-3.9%

28700

Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA

166.6

191.4

223.3

231.1

236.9

218.3

237.8

257.6

11.5%

28740

Kingston, NY

285.6

346.6

379.7

375.4

398.8

381.3

358.9

394.5

5.1%

28940

Knoxville, TN

229.8

279.0

325.1

336.0

331.1

318.7

323.0

342.4

1.9%

29460

Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

230.0

270.0

335.0

343.0

340.0

338.3

329.0

335.9

-2.1%

29540

Lancaster, PA

229.4

260.6

292.1

296.0

303.1

294.8

279.7

318.8

7.7%

29620

Lansing-East Lansing, MI

173.3

189.8

203.7

216.3

210.1

195.6

179.4

226.1

4.5%

29820

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV

331.0

397.0

466.4

485.4

463.5

441.3

431.4

449.6

-7.4%

30460

Lexington-Fayette, KY

201.2

224.2

242.5

251.0

249.4

240.0

242.2

261.3

4.1%

30700

Lincoln, NE

219.8

245.1

273.1

280.8

275.8

270.0

275.0

292.7

4.2%

30780

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR

166.9

184.6

205.6

210.7

211.7

204.8

203.0

212.6

0.9%

30860

Logan, UT-ID

283.8

364.2

441.6

453.6

435.2

422.0

441.9

440.6

-2.9%

30980

Longview, TX

176.4

210.5

239.7

242.5

242.5

238.7

232.5

243.8

0.5%

31084

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

673.1

801.3

849.4

834.7

885.4

829.1

746.8

789.4

-5.4%

31140

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

212.1

235.6

254.2

263.5

263.8

251.2

246.0

270.9

2.8%

31180

Lubbock, TX

182.8

206.9

229.8

237.6

232.3

226.6

222.4

231.7

-2.5%

31420

Macon-Bibb, GA

154.6

180.0

213.1

217.0

224.6

211.5

201.8

219.9

1.3%

31540

Madison, WI

326.4

361.5

392.7

410.1

397.9

380.0

397.9

429.2

4.7%

31700

Manchester-Nashua, NH

357.8

412.6

466.0

485.5

469.0

454.1

441.9

489.5

0.8%

32820

Memphis, TN-MS-AR

221.2

248.7

271.6

288.0

276.7

254.0

268.6

287.9

0.0%

33100

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

398.0

480.0

557.5

589.0

570.0

550.0

560.0

605.0

2.7%

33340

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

291.3

319.0

345.3

364.6

358.3

335.0

339.6

387.4

6.3%

33460

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

315.2

354.8

375.4

387.2

381.1

365.6

361.5

386.7

-0.1%

33660

Mobile, AL

167.1

195.9

211.4

219.5

213.3

207.5

215.3

228.7

4.2%

33860

Montgomery, AL

171.0

189.5

198.7

208.1

205.9

191.2

185.4

214.2

2.9%

34820

Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC

250.2

294.0

364.3

367.4

373.4

373.5

368.4

368.3

0.2%

©2023 National Association of REALTORS® All Rights Reserved.

May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS®.

For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

-3.1%

Metropolitan Area

2020

2021

2022

2022.II

2022.III

2022.IV

2023.I r

2023.II p

(Not Seasonally Adjusted, 000s)

Q2-Q2 %Chya

34940

Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

498.5

645.0

782.0

850.0

746.6

802.5

777.0

850.0

0.0%

34980

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

298.9

349.5

403.7

418.5

408.3

400.1

385.8

401.3

-4.1%

35004

Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY

545.2

635.1

670.8

677.8

684.1

664.0

653.2

673.4

-0.6%

35100

New Bern, NC

187.6

221.9

252.3

251.8

263.4

260.0

250.5

301.4

19.7%

35300

New Haven-Milford, CT

265.9

300.0

339.0

352.2

354.8

329.6

314.8

365.8

3.9%

35380

New Orleans-Metairie, LA

240.5

268.1

285.6

300.6

278.9

275.9

265.2

287.1

-4.5%

35614

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ

442.4

535.8

589.2

597.6

616.3

577.3

560.2

608.8

1.9%

35620

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

469.1

561.0

607.6

621.0

627.4

594.3

577.3

629.0

1.3%

35084

Newark, NJ-PA

452.0

512.3

563.3

601.2

588.3

538.5

513.4

635.6

5.7%

35840

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL

334.9

405.0

505.6

515.0

513.7

520.0

500.0

525.0

1.9%

35980

Norwich-New London, CT

263.5

296.0

326.4

332.8

340.7

322.6

310.1

345.9

3.9%

36100

Ocala, FL

185.0

230.0

280.0

285.0

285.0

280.0

279.9

287.1

0.7%

36260

Ogden-Clearfield, UT

340.5

417.8

483.0

518.7

479.2

453.5

451.9

485.6

-6.4%

36420

Oklahoma City, OK

174.9

194.2

223.4

231.9

235.3

222.2

227.3

247.6

6.8%

36540

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA

220.6

242.0

272.6

281.3

278.5

267.2

274.1

297.5

5.8%

36740

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

301.6

356.9

420.0

430.0

425.0

422.7

419.9

435.0

1.2%

36780

Oshkosh-Neenah, WI

175.4

192.8

220.2

229.8

226.9

220.7

218.9

251.4

9.4%

36980

Owensboro, KY

152.4

174.4

189.5

181.6

204.4

199.0

189.9

194.3

7.0%

37100

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

709.9

980.2

896.9

930.1

887.7

849.5

844.8

904.9

-2.7%

37340

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

260.4

305.0

356.4

363.7

368.5

355.0

350.0

360.0

-1.0%

37460

Panama City, FL

255.0

298.5

353.6

359.3

367.5

350.3

365.0

370.0

3.0%

37860

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

240.0

281.0

325.0

330.9

330.0

316.3

319.9

330.0

-0.3%

37900

Peoria, IL

128.1

130.5

138.2

140.5

148.2

133.6

128.6

156.6

11.5%

37980

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

272.9

305.0

333.1

346.3

349.2

329.5

315.3

352.9

1.9%

38060

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

333.0

415.4

477.9

496.0

474.4

450.4

439.7

464.2

-6.4%

38300

Pittsburgh, PA

182.3

205.5

213.5

225.2

222.2

201.4

191.0

225.9

0.3%

38340

Pittsfield, MA

266.3

302.4

326.0

324.0

332.8

335.7

287.4

287.4

-11.3%

38940

Port St. Lucie, FL

271.0

332.0

400.0

410.0

410.0

399.5

391.5

410.0

0.0%

38860

Portland-South Portland, ME

356.2

418.1

473.0

493.8

482.0

460.2

462.8

538.7

9.1%

38900

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

451.0

536.4

591.0

616.3

594.3

567.5

556.8

599.4

-2.7%

39300

Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

347.3

396.1

440.9

457.7

453.8

431.7

417.0

462.3

1.0%

39340

Provo-Orem, UT

375.9

475.7

569.1

603.0

552.2

526.4

492.6

520.3

-13.7%

39380

Pueblo, CO

238.5

286.7

305.3

319.8

298.5

289.0

312.4

307.0

-4.0%

39460

Punta Gorda, FL

252.0

315.0

388.9

400.0

381.1

392.8

378.0

380.0

-5.0%

39540

Racine, WI

217.2

228.2

250.2

260.0

257.3

260.7

230.4

258.3

-0.7%

39580

Raleigh, NC

325.2

392.8

455.3

477.6

460.5

431.0

420.0

471.6

-1.3%

39740

Reading, PA

190.8

216.2

234.0

243.0

236.5

233.7

231.8

267.5

10.1%

39900

Reno, NV

440.8

531.8

596.6

623.0

591.1

562.1

535.8

585.8

-6.0%

40060

Richmond, VA

303.4

342.8

374.0

391.9

384.4

365.0

362.3

395.0

0.8%

40140

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

422.6

510.0

565.0

585.0

567.0

540.0

550.0

570.0

-2.6%

40220

Roanoke, VA

221.6

244.5

267.7

281.5

272.9

260.7

266.7

284.2

1.0%

40340

Rochester, MN

259.0

291.2

319.0

340.3

313.5

294.5

303.8

332.7

-2.2%

40380 40420

Rochester, NY Rockford, IL

170.4 141.3

192.1 156.2

211.0 162.5

222.8 172.2

224.0 174.0

202.7 161.0

190.4 149.7

240.6 176.3

8.0% 2.4%

40900

Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA

421.0

500.0

541.0

568.0

535.0

500.0

500.0

530.0

-6.7%

40980

Saginaw, MI

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

41180

St. Louis, MO-IL

205.8

226.1

245.3

258.0

256.8

239.0

231.1

266.2

3.2%

41420

Salem, OR

353.6

411.1

451.7

459.9

464.0

443.6

453.7

451.0

-1.9%

41500

Salinas, CA

767.4

886.6

899.2

910.3

897.5

848.9

863.9

915.6

0.6%

41620

Salt Lake City, UT

391.0

486.1

569.1

605.0

561.2

524.8

522.7

546.9

-9.6%

41700

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

254.3

291.2

337.7

349.5

342.7

329.8

320.5

334.1

-4.4%

41740

San Diego-Carlsbad, CA

710.0

830.0

911.0

965.9

900.0

857.0

880.0

942.4

-2.4%

41860

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA

1100.0

1320.0

1375.0

1505.0

1300.0

1235.5

1140.0

1335.0

-11.3%

41940

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

1385.0

1640.0

1797.8

1900.0

1688.0

1577.5

1618.4

1800.0

-5.3%

42020

San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA

665.4

762.1

889.3

920.6

875.0

863.2

850.2

890.9

-3.2%

42140

Santa Fe, NM

461.1

535.5

610.3

637.7

609.8

635.2

608.7

641.0

0.5%

42660

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

596.9

698.6

756.2

818.9

741.3

708.9

699.3

793.3

-3.1%

42680

Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL

270.0

325.0

375.0

395.0

374.7

366.8

384.0

412.0

4.3%

43300

Sherman-Denison, TX

204.0

254.2

277.1

288.4

279.6

267.3

256.1

296.2

2.7%

43340

Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

179.5

196.4

213.6

228.7

220.6

206.3

215.6

224.8

-1.7%

43620

Sioux Falls, SD

236.3

269.5

314.3

326.2

325.3

298.9

286.1

341.4

4.7%

43780

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

153.3

173.0

194.9

207.3

207.8

185.6

183.0

200.7

-3.2%

43900

Spartanburg, SC

205.1

235.4

272.3

276.0

275.6

275.7

278.7

291.1

5.5%

44060

Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA

307.4

382.1

423.9

458.1

422.5

389.4

383.4

424.4

-7.4%

44100

Springfield, IL

148.0

146.7

157.0

154.9

167.4

162.4

147.9

162.6

5.0%

44140

Springfield, MA

249.0

287.5

318.1

334.6

324.6

318.6

296.0

336.0

0.4%

44180

Springfield, MO

172.1

198.6

231.9

243.5

235.1

224.1

225.3

247.0

1.4%

41100

St. George, UT

372.7

462.7

583.2

613.2

561.9

550.7

512.2

548.0

-10.6%

45060

Syracuse, NY

161.4

177.5

195.1

196.3

208.1

197.9

176.3

211.6

7.8%

45220

Tallahassee, FL

248.0

273.7

310.0

310.0

319.0

315.0

305.0

332.0

7.1%

45300

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

272.0

330.0

400.0

411.0

405.1

399.0

390.0

409.9

-0.3%

©2023 National Association of REALTORS® All Rights Reserved.

May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS®.

For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

Metropolitan Area

2020

2021

2022

2022.II

2022.III

2022.IV

2023.I r

2023.II p

(Not Seasonally Adjusted, 000s)

Q2-Q2 %Chya

45780

Toledo, OH

145.2

158.5

167.2

173.3

175.2

159.3

156.0

177.2

2.3%

45820

Topeka, KS

146.4

169.2

179.0

189.6

188.9

171.5

172.1

194.6

2.6%

45940

Trenton, NJ

300.0

353.7

367.8

370.6

398.0

357.8

338.8

409.4

10.5%

46060

Tucson, AZ

265.1

331.2

371.9

380.7

376.1

368.2

362.6

383.3

0.7%

46140

Tulsa, OK

195.9

221.6

242.3

251.7

246.5

239.3

238.8

262.0

4.1%

46520

Urban Honolulu, HI

851.5

996.2

1126.7

1145.0

1127.4

1090.2

1029.0

1060.7

-7.4%

47260

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

275.0

285.0

323.9

336.4

327.3

305.4

313.2

339.7

1.0%

47580

Warner Robins, GA

191.7

214.8

239.3

245.7

254.0

233.3

253.0

254.5

3.6%

47900

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

475.4

544.3

585.0

626.7

581.3

550.1

557.2

629.0

0.4%

47940

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

138.4

152.4

166.7

174.1

174.5

161.3

159.1

171.5

-1.5%

48620

Wichita, KS

175.0

191.2

209.4

213.6

220.2

210.1

203.9

220.7

3.3%

48660

Wichita Falls, TX

140.9

158.6

178.6

182.5

176.4

181.6

183.6

193.3

5.9%

48900

Wilmington, NC

301.7

355.3

410.1

424.9

411.1

414.8

416.5

439.4

3.4%

49180

Winston-Salem, NC

202.4

235.6

280.5

289.8

283.0

285.2

277.0

292.2

0.8%

49340

Worcester, MA-CT

325.2

371.7

409.1

425.4

431.0

398.0

387.6

452.0

6.3%

49420

Yakima, WA

281.3

327.1

352.1

363.4

359.2

341.3

335.7

356.7

-1.8%

49620

York-Hanover, PA

199.3

221.0

240.8

248.7

245.4

241.1

242.5

265.8

6.9%

49660

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA

119.0

133.3

139.9

143.3

148.0

135.5

133.6

157.3

9.8%

78010

St Croix, Virgin Islands

317.5

319.4

347.0

350.0

392.0

325.0

289.0

340.0

-2.9%

*All areas are metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) as defined by the US Office of Management and Budget though in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data.

MSAs include the named central city and surrounding areas and may not match local reporting due to differences in specification. N/A Not Available p Preliminary r Revised ©2023 National Association of REALTORS®

©2023 National Association of REALTORS® All Rights Reserved.

May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS®.

For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

August 2023

REALTORS® CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY

National Association of REALTORS® Research Group

August 2023

REALTORS® CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY Homes typically received 3.2 offers, 72% sold within one month, and 31% sold above list price.

The Market Outlook from the REALTORS® Confidence Index for buyers and sellers declined slightly in August 2023: • 11% of respondents expect a year-over-year increase in buyer traffic in the next three months, down from 13% one month ago and flat from one year ago.

• 10% of respondents expect a year-over-year increase in seller traffic in the next three months, a slight decrease from last month at 10% and down from 12% in August 2022.

With supply still limited relative to demand, 31% of homes sold above list price, down from 35% last month and down slightly from 32% a year ago: • 72% of respondents reported that properties sold in less than one month. Down slightly from 74% a month ago and down from 81% in August 2022.

• Homes listed received an average of 3.2 offers, up slightly from 3.0 last month and up from 2.5 offers in August 2022.

• Due to the lack of housing inventory, the pace of the market, and the use of technology, 7% of buyers purchased a home based only on a virtual tour, showing, or open house without physically seeing the home. Down slightly from one month ago and virtually unchanged from one year ago.

Contracts typically closed in 30 days, the same as last month and one year ago. But some faced delays or termination: • 5% of contracts were terminated in the last three months, about the same as one month and down from one year ago.

• 14% of contracts had delayed settlements in the past three months, unchanged from last month and down slightly from 15% a year ago.

• 7% of contracts had delayed settlement due to appraisal issues, virtually unchanged from last month and one year ago.

First-time buyers represented 29% of buyers, down slightly from 30% in July 2023 and flat from 29% in August 2022. Among all buyers: • 16% purchased for non-primary residence use, unchanged from last month and one year ago.

• 5% were purchased for vacation use, flat from one month ago and down slightly from 7% one year ago.

• 1% of sellers sold to an iBuyer, similar to one month and one year ago.

• 1% of sales were distressed, flat from one month and one year ago.

Contract activity remains competitive: • 27% of buyers had all-cash sales, up slightly from 26% last month and up from 24% in August 2022.

• 23% of buyers waived the inspection contingency, down from 26% one month ago and virtually unchanged from 22% one year ago.

• 22% of buyers waived the appraisal contingency, flat from one month and one year ago.

Buyers continue to look outside of city centers for the majority of their activity at 86%.

REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey

1

November August 2021 2023

® REALTORS REALTORS® CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE INDEX INDEX SURVEY SURVEY

REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey

1

August 2023

REALTORS® CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY About the RCI Survey • The RCI Survey gathers information from REALTORS® about local market

conditions based on their client interactions and the characteristics of their most recent sales for the month.

• The August 2023 survey was sent to 50,000 REALTORS® who were selected from NAR’s more than 1.5 million members through simple random sampling and to 4,664 respondents in the previous three surveys who provided their email addresses.

• There were 1,629 respondents to the online survey, which ran from

September 1-15, 2023, of which 871 had a client in the last month. Among those who had a client, the survey’s maximum margin of error for proportion estimates is nearly 3% at the 95 percent confidence level.

REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey

7

August 2023

REALTORS® CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY

The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate.

The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Working for America’s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for professional development, research and exchange of information among its members and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® RESEARCH GROUP The Mission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Group is to produce timely, data-driven market analysis and authoritative business intelligence to serve members, and inform consumers, policymakers and the media in a professional and accessible manner.

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Group, visit nar.realtor/research-and-statistics NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Group 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 202-383-1000 data@nar.realtor

NAR Research Staff:

Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Jessica Lautz, Dr.RealEst., Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President Brandi Snowden, Director Member and Consumer Survey Research Meredith Dunn, Research Manager Anna Schnerre, Research Associate, Business Insights ©2023 National Association of REALTORS® All Rights Reserved.

May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS®.

For reprint information, contact data@nar.realtor.

REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey

8

GARETT HUBER REALTOR®, CLHMS

850.830.1801

Garett@livebythebeach.com LiveByTheBeach.com Garett.Huber@compass.com HuberLuxuryGroup.com

DEDIC AT I O N | C OMMI T M E N T | T R U ST A full-time Realtor within Santa Rosa Beach and surrounding areas, Garett offers a wealth of knowledge and experience that is unsurpassed. Garett’s keen insight into vacation homes, as well as investment properties, is why he is able to adapt to the ever-changing real estate market.

Garett’s experience is why his clients are excited to refer his services to their family, friends and colleagues. Garett’s strengths are prompt communication, service to his clients, as well as trust and commitment.

Originally from New Orleans, Garett moved to the South Walton area over 25 years ago to start up a closet organization business during the housing boom in the early 2000’s. After many years as a successful business owner, Garett decided to enter into the real estate industry to continue working with homeowners where he has found great fulfillment.

“The Most Trusted Realtor Along The Emerald Coast”

C OM P A S S FL

2048 W County Hwy 30, Suite 107 Santa Rosa Beach, Florida 32459