Time to Wave the Yellow Flag? - Maine Real Estate

Winter

E - N E W S L E T T E R February 2020 | Vol. 50

Volume 50 - February 2020 Issue Written by: Chris Lynch

Designed by: Dana Whitney

Edited by: Chris Fortunato

Graphics by: Dana Whitney

As the leader in luxury Maine Real Estate, Legacy Properties So

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TIME TO WAVE THE YELLOW FLAG? - MAINE REAL ESTATE It is time to celebrate 10 straight years of improving real estate market conditions for the state of Maine. Some years were better than others, but over this period we have been enjoying gains in both Unit Volume and Median Sales prices. While most of our readers enjoy our market commentary, others have, from time to time, accused me of being a “shill” for Maine real estate.

Of course the continual barrage of data reporting record breaking market conditions for the better part of the past one hundred plus months speaks for itself. All of that said, I think it is time to fly the Yellow Flag for a bit as the waters are getting a bit choppier.

Real estate sales in Maine, as in most places, are closely tied to mortgage rates, economic cycles, consumer confidence, and the quality of life offered to its residents. Maine has clearly been the beneficiary of a s tructural c hange i n its n ational recognition and p erception. As t he l ast s top before the Canadian border on the Eastern Seaboard, Maine had previously been viewed as too isolated and too seasonal. Portland, the nations “foodiest” small city, grew in stature even more when Bon Appétit named our largest city ( pop. 67,000 ) as its 2018 Restaurant City of the Year.

Although known for it amazing summer vacation experiences, we have had a resurgence of new businesses, along with an influx of young and middle-aged professionals, recent retirees, and lifestyle seekers looking to work and play in Maine as full time residents.

Mortgage rates dipped below 5% in 2012 and have been largely bouncing between 3.5% and 4.5% since then. Consumer statistics provided by Bloomberg News, the US Buying Climate Index, the Personal Finance Index, and the Consumer Comfort Index are at, or near, all time highs. It is not clear to me how Maine can continue to enjoy such an amazing stretch of good fortune in perpetuity, but I hope I am wrong. The market sensitivity to mortgage rates was quite evident in late 2018 and early 2019 when there was a sharp rise from 4.5% to over 5% for the better part of 3 months. During that time, Maine experienced a steep decline in Unit Sales volume with the December figure declining by 14% and January 2019 declining by 13% when compared to the same period in the previous year. It was a blip that largely escaped scrutiny as rates then tumbled again and remain at approximately 3.5%.

When looking at full year trends, Maine Unit Sales volume increased 1.55% to 18,140 units sold in 2019. This modest improvement came on the heels of anemic growth of 1.31% in 2018.

Cumberland and York Counties in southwestern Maine, which account for 40% of the Unit Sales volume, were effectively flat while experiencing a 5% plus increase in median prices. I would argue that there is no shortage of buyers of all ages and from all over the world looking to own their piece of Maine who will continue to drive the demand side of the equation. My concern is that we will not be able to deliver enough on the listing inventory side of the equation.

We are entering the spring market (March-June) which has, for the past several years, been characterized by strong demand with quite limited supply. It appears we will have this dynamic again this spring.

My three major concerns for this year are: 1. Unclear directives from the Federal Reserve as to interest rate policies affecting mortgage rates 2. Too much demand chasing too little supply for the spring market 3. Presidential election year effects tend to distract risk averse buyers and sellers beginning late in summer and continuing through much of the fall selling season.

For the immediate future, a mild winter has fueled an early start to the 2020 calendar year. It has been extraordinarily busy during our slow season. Mortgage rates are still very attractive and could sustain a sizable rise without too much disruption to the real estate flows. All told, it is hard to imagine how the market conditions can get much better than they are today. There is never someone to ring the bell for a market turn, but let’s all enjoy it while we can. Just remember, moderating sales volume is the precursor to deteriorating market conditions. Forewarned is forearmed‌.

Source: Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings).

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*Based on information from the Maine Real Estate Information System, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) for the period 1/1/19 through 12/31/19

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F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

43 Sea Street, Rockport | $4,995,000 Brian Wickenden 207.975.9650

8 Lords Point Road, Kennebunk | $3,850,000 Jim Nadeau 207.337.3687 Jane Chase 207.351.7529

402 Baker Hill Road, Freeman Twp | $3,800,000 Charlene Hamiwka 207.671.0085 Glenn Jonsson 207.776.0036

186 Lopaus Point Road, Tremont | $3,750,000 Lewis Wheelwright 207.232.3951 George Wheelwright 207.249.9626

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

26 Harbor Road, Camden | $3,390,000 Heidi Steele 207.542.4316

Phillips | $3,200,000 Glenn Jonsson 207.776.0036 Lois Lengyel 207.233.2820

41 Parsons Beach Road, Kennebunk | $3,175,000 Randal Simon 207.590.9656 Rosane Hirschy 207.467.5792

134 Big Tree Lane, Islesboro | $2,850,000 Michael Kevin Lynch 207.559.3131

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

48 Argo Point, York Harbor | $2,500,000 Ginny Whitney 207.451.3093

65 Lambert Road, Freeport | $2,200,000 Alexa Oestreicher 207.329.3907

74 Foreside Road, Cumberland | $1,695,000 Dennis Duggan 207.522.3747 Ian Duggan 207.522.8090

33 Gaul Drive, South Bristol | $1,650,000 Connie Moss 207.563.2775

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

33 Great Hill Road, Kennebunk | $1,625,000 Betsy Coughlan 207.229.3661

23 Kings Road, York | $1,600,000 Mary Jean Labbe 207.337.3661

91 Jones Point Road, South Bristol | $1,595,000 Miles Geisler 207.380.6007

112 Whale Rock Lane, Surry | $1,495,000 Janet Moore 207.266.0441 Abigail Curless 207.801.1199

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

1179 Shore Road, Cape Elizabeth | $1,399,000 Anne Bosworth 207.233.3175

1 Day Road, Raymond | $1,375,000 Tammy Ruda 207.831.3164

18 Oceanview Terrace, South Thomaston | $1,200,000 Lori Alexander 207.837.0804

380 Seashore Avenue, Portland | $1,195,000 Carrie Martin 207.415.2504

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

209 Pemaquid Trail, Bristol | $1,195,000 Linda Painter 207.592.3214 Dennis Gleason 207.446.6394

712 Peabody Pond Road, Sebago | $1,095,000 Lois Lengyel 207.233.2820

70 Pittee Creek Way, Yarmouth | $1,039,000 Linda MacDonald 207.749.1215

51 West Chops Point Road, Bath | $975,000 Patty Lawton 207.522.1444 Jonathan Leahy 207.798.2428

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

181 Mill Street, Rockport | $898,000 Leslie Tranchell 207.691.2955

9 & 11 Pine Drive, Otisfield | $889,000 Beth Taylor 207.807-0170 Marika Alexis Clark 207.671.6927

241 Foreside Road, Falmouth | $879,000 Marika Alexis Clark 207.671.6927 Lois Lengyel 207.233.2820

219 Lynch Road, Newcastle | $875,000 Connie Moss 207.671.0117

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

276 Shore Road, Bremen | $850,000 Kathy Leeman 207.504.6866

23 John Robinson Way, Belfast | $795,000 Aaron Crossman 207.322.6638

15 Stream View Drive, Waterville | $695,000 Joane Tait 207.751.4124

23 Bayberry Lane, Cushing | $695,000 George Wheelwright 207.249.9626 Lewis Wheelwright 207.232.3951

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

308 Back Shore Road, Bristol | $680,000 Kathleen Shattuck 207.215.4161

11 Abenaki Way, Kennebunkport | $670,000 Chris Stone 207.590.3425

48 Pond Road, Chebeague Island | $659,900 Elise Kiely 207.838.1050 Carrie Martin 207.415.2504

149 Main Street 8, Yarmouth | $545,000 Jonathan Leahy 207.798.2428 Preston Robison 207.671.4914

F E AT U R E D L I ST I N G S

ONLY A FEW UNITS REMAINING 285 Front Street 101, Bath | $539,000 Sandra Wendland 207.233.7788

1144 Main Street, Mount Desert | $512,500 Carroll Fernald 207.266.1540

43 Birch Road, Boothbay Harbor | $450,000 Tom Field 207.215.6455

43 West Chops Point, Road Bath | $199,000 John Collins 207.607.2442

DAWN BELLIVEAU 207.200.7644

ABIGAIL CURLESS KRISTIE JORGENSEN

ROCKY MILLS

207.801.1199

207.200.5082

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207.798.1482

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RENTALS

Legacy Properties Sotheby’s International Realty represents the most exceptional luxury rental homes in all of Maine. After a banner 2019 season, we are seeing incredible demand from guests for Summer 2020. Hence we are looking for outstanding new properties to add to our portfolio of available rental homes. Our property owners are afforded: • Extraordinary local presence, combined with regional, national, and international marketing platforms to change the way Maine luxury lifestyle properties are presented for rent.

• Access to the most highly qualified tenants from across the world.

• Peace of mind, with us handling all of the pertinent details such as marketing via numerous online channels, drafting leases, collecting and distributing payments, remitting taxes, and scheduling cleanings and weekend changeovers. ​ hether you are interested in renting your home for one to ten weeks in the summer or long term throughout W the year, we are happy to discuss all available options.​ Visit us at luxurymainerentals.com to view our extraordinary luxury rental portfolio or contact Scott E. Dobos, Director of Rental Operations at rentals@legacysir.com or 207.370.5479 for more information.

Property Distribution The exposure and worldwide reach of our listings is a crucial piece of what sets us apart from the rest of the industry. Our global property marketing partners include the most authoritative news, lifestyle, and once a home is showcased on sothebysrealty.com, it is exclusively marketed on more than 100 Sotheby’s International Realty websites around the world. Results are measured with a variety of analytics and reporting tools, which enable sales associates and ‘

We were the first luxury real estate brand to launch on Apple TV. We were the first luxury real estate brand to add 3D and Virtual Reality Tours to our website. And, we are the first luxury real estate brand to launch an Augmented Reality app.

The highly anticipated Sotheby’s International Realty brand AR app was built with Google’s ARCore and will bring a home’s Curate by Sotheby’s International Realty is a fantastic tool for both clients and Sotheby’s International Realty sales associates.

virtual staging from perception to reality, allowing users to visualize a house as their own before purchase, adding a new level of curation to the home-buying experience.

For prospective homebuyers – Viewing a potential house in AR breaks down visualization barriers that often accompany the homebuying process, allowing prospective homebuyers the unique ability to envision the house in their personal taste and style.

For home sellers / Sotheby’s International Realty clients – Selling a home with a Sotheby’s International Realty sales associate means tapping into the power of AR to sell the home by helping prospective buyers overcome the visualization barriers of touring an empty home or one decorated in style that differs from their taste.

A mobile augmented reality (AR) app that will bring a home’s virtual staging images from 2-D perception into augmented reality.

For the Sotheby’s International Realty sales associate – The benefits for the sales associate are similar to those of the homebuyer and seller; Curate by Sotheby’s International Realty empowers the sales associate to present a home in an objective and neutral manner.

Here are the key groundbreaking features of the app: Visualization – Any property can be transformed through a curated selection of AR furnishings and décor sets. Listing-specific staging options will be available in the near future.

Recollection – The app has screenshot capabilities, allowing viewers to capture and store the images of AR furniture sets placed within the visit.

Shop – Virtual home furnishings can be clicked for more information about the product, including a link to exit the app and be directed to a retailer’s website. All furniture is shown to-scale and provides accurate room dimensions, ensuring furniture viewed in the app will be a fit, making purchasing and moving into a new home easier on new home buyers.

PORTLAND OFFICE 2 City Center, Portland, Maine 04101 207.780.9800

KENNEBUNK OFFICE

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Table of Contents

BRUNSWICK OFFICE

Written by: Sotheby’s Chris Lynch

141 Maine Street Brunswick, Maine 04011 207.729.2820

DAMARISCOTTA OFFICE 170 Main Street Damariscotta, Maine 04543 207.532.2775

CAMDEN OFFICE

46 Bay View Street, Camden, Maine 04843 207.230.1003

Volume 41 - November 2014 Issue

Legacy Properties International Realty

Five Offices Covering the first Edited by: 1,500 miles of Maine Coastline Chris Fortunato & Seacoast New Hampshire

info@legacysir.com legacysir.com

FEATURED LISTING $922,000 91 EASTWARD ON THE OCEAN, ROCKPORT