What lies ahead for the meat goat industry

Photo by Karla Blackstock

By JJ Jones Southeast Area Ag Economist Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service

Goat production has gone through some monumental changes over the last 20 years. Once looked down upon by major agriculture, goat production has risen to a higher level of respect and profitability. Today’s goat producers proclaim their profession with pride and no longer try to hide the fact they raise goats. Producers have taken this new emergence of pride and profitability all the way to the bank. But can the goat industry retain or grow their foot hold in animal agriculture or is this just the ostrich industry all over again?

Know the Past to Understand the Future

Before the 1990s, goat production was limited to one of three categories: dairy, mohair or brush. Dairy goats were seen as a viable enterprise, but were a niche market. Mohair goats were profitable until the government program disappeared. Then, there was the old Spanish brush goat. These goats were not typically thought of as a profit center, but more of a way to control brush.

In the 90s, the United States started importing meat goats. With the importation of meat goats, came a new segment to the industry, meat production. The United States was importing millions of pounds of frozen goat meat from Australia, New Zealand and Mexico. Producers in the United States were going to capitalize on a growing demand for goat meat and produce it locally.

The growth in the industry was slow but steady. States like Texas would recognize meat goats as a viable industry and started keeping inventory numbers and prices, but the USDA wouldn’t

2.70

2.60 start 2.50 reporting Million Head 2.50 2.30 2.20 2.10 meat goat numbers and prices 2.00 until 2004.

1.9

1.80 Most educators and researchers looked at the goat boom 2001 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 as a fad similar to ostriches, but the meat goat industry had something the ostriches never had—demand for the final product. During the start of the new century, the meat goat industry continued to grow. In 2008, meat goat numbers

January 1 Meat Goat Inventory

Yearly Average Price San Angelo, TX

$2.50 $2.30 $2.10 $1.90 $/lbs. $1.70 $1.50 $1.30 $1.10 $0.90 $0.50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 40-60 lbs goat 60-80 lb goat

reached their all-time high with 2.59 million head. Droughts in the major goat producing regions of the United States (Southern U.S. represents more than 70% of meat goat numbers.) have caused the number of meat goats 40-60 lb Kid Prices to decline to 2.10 million San Angelo, TX head in 2014. But, in 2015 $310 goat numbers started to $295

$280

increase again to a total of $265 2.15 million head. Prices for goats have $/cwt $235 $220 also seen some major shifts. $205

$190

The yearly average price of $175 goats sold in San Angelo, TX, $160 shows that in 2000 a 40-60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec pound goat kid averaged $0.95/pound. Assuming Five Year Average (10-14) 2014 2015 an average weight of 50 pounds and a kidding percentage of 170%, a producer would average $81.01/doe. By 2010, the average price had increased to $1.70/pound increasing the average revenue to $144.50/ doe. In 10 years, the average price had increased 79.6%.

The first part of this decade saw the average goat prices continue to increase with the average price breaking the $2/pound mark in 2011 and then set a new record price of $2.34/pound in 2014.

With these prices, average revenues have increased to $198.80/doe. When comparing revenues to those of average THE PERFECT GIFT cattle operations and assuming 6 goats equal 1 cow, goat operations are generating revenues comparable to cattle. THIS SEASON.

Here and Now

So far, 2015 has been better than 2014. Prices started out higher in January and continued to climb to a new record price of $3.07/lbs. Prices have started to fall as we approach the late summer months which is the typical seasonal pattern. Although they have decreased by 12%, they are still well above 2014 and the five-year average. These price declines also come at the same time other livestock markets have seen their prices fall as well.

What About the Future?

Goat inventory numbers should continue to climb as the drought stricken regions of the United States begin to get better. Most of this increase will more than likely occur in the Midwest and southern parts of the country as most of the western part of the United States is still experiencing severe drought conditions.

Prices in 2015 should remain higher than 2014 and set a new yearly average high over $2.50/lbs. Going forward into 2016, history indicates that after a record high year prices typically moderate and either remain stable to a bit lower. There will be downward pressure on goat prices if goat numbers continue to increase and as the U.S. dollar gets stronger against foreign currencies making imported goat meat much cheaper. Also, if other livestock markets start to come down this will put further pressure on goat prices. Taking that all into account, prices in 2016 may not be as high as 2015, but they should remain

above 2014 prices.

The meat goat industry has already surpassed many traditional agriculturalists expectations and as an industry there is still room for growth. There will be some hurdles to overcome, but for those producers that will do their due diligence, the goat industry is one that should remain a profitable industry.

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