The Jefferson Project: 10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection

2013–2023

The Jefferson Project at Lake George is a breakthrough approach to studying fresh water, with a goal of understanding the impacts of human activity and how to mitigate them.

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THE MODEL FOR FRESHWATER PROTECTION The Jefferson Project is an unprecedented collaboration of scientists, engineers, and technologists from IBM Global Research and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, combined with the advocates and program managers at the Lake George Association. Together, our team works to understand, anticipate, and respond to the pressures that threaten Lake George’s renowned water quality, including road salt, invasive species, harmful algal blooms, nutrient loading, and climate change.

In 2023 we celebrate the 10th anniversary of The Jefferson Project.

By working together and leveraging our team’s strengths in computation, research, and advocacy, The Jefferson Project has made Lake George the World’s Smartest Lake. But how is all that intelligence being used?

Highlighting six major breakthroughs of The Jefferson Project, this report summarizes the powerful tools we have built and key insights we have generated that advance the understanding, management, and forecasting of Lake George’s water quality. Through purpose-driven collaboration guided by The Jefferson Project’s bold vision, Lake George provides the global model for sustained ecosystem understanding and protection.

Dr. Kevin Rose Project Director, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Dr. Rick Relyea Project Director, 2014–2022, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Dr. Harry Kolar Associate Project Director, IBM Research

Eric Siy Associate Project Director, Lake George Association

2 | The Jefferson Project at Lake George

BREAKTHROUGH

no.1

CREATING AND LEARNING FROM THE WORLD’S SMARTEST LAKE

THE BREAKTHROUGH By studying Lake George 24/7 for 10 years with hundreds of high-frequency sensors, we now have an unprecedented understanding of how the Lake’s water quality, currents, and ecosystem are changing every microsecond and over the long-term.

WHAT THIS TELLS US By using hundreds and hundreds of terabytes of data to test hypotheses and isolate the drivers of change, we can identify the causes and effects of the issues that threaten the Lake’s water quality, its ecosystem, and the region’s Lake-based economy. These models are validated daily with actual sensor data and then applied to current conditions to build accurate forecasting systems.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LAKE PROTECTION Previously unimagined insights into the complex issues that affect the health of Lake George now tell us what the most effective and safest solutions are to safeguard the Lake on a sustained basis — The Jefferson Project’s founding purpose.

This is one of the high-resolution contour maps of the floor of Lake George created in 2014 to inform circulation models of the Lake.

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 3

This third-generation vertical profiler is a robotic, autonomous, intelligent multi-sensor platform that measures physical, chemical, and biological parameters of the Lake. These state-of-the-art buoys — designed and built by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, incorporating IBM Research technologies — are a critical part of the smart sensor network.

The Jefferson Project itself is a breakthrough — an unparalleled partnership of science, technology, and advocacy united to establish a global model for sustained understanding and protection of fresh water. Lake George is the centerpiece of this groundbreaking endeavor.

The latest generation of on-Lake vertical profiler is equipped with three acoustic doppler current profilers that provide detailed readings on water current, speed, and direction.

The profilers operate at different frequencies to ensure the most comprehensive and accurate data collection.

The Project’s innovative use and development of technology let us see what was once unseeable. Through the data we have gathered and analyzed over the past 10 years, the Lake is teaching us what it needs to remain resilient in the face of increasing threats to the clarity and health of its water.

All of the data collected are used by IBM researchers to create highly detailed computer models, allowing us to see exactly how different events — such as extreme storms and stormwater runoff, or the introduction of invasive species and other foreign substances — impact water quality and ecosystem health.

Every model is validated on a daily basis, providing the highest level of accuracy possible.

A network of sophisticated monitoring platforms includes vertical profiler buoys and more than 500 individual smart sensors positioned throughout the entire 32-mile Lake and surrounding watershed. These platforms gather voluminous information about the Lake’s physical, biological, and chemical characteristics from the surface to the bottom, as well as the streams that feed the Lake and the weather that plays such an important role in its health.

Data are collected as frequently as four times per second, allowing us to discern very small changes in water quality over time, pinpoint exactly when those changes occur, and identify trends much earlier than ever before — providing an early warning system and allowing for the development of sciencebased solutions.

The most revolutionary of The Jefferson Project’s models is the Scenario Engine that allows us to anticipate environmental changes decades into the future, providing the opportunity to develop science-based preventive solutions and consider multiple possible futures for the Lake. Among the high priority issues the Scenario Engine is currently working on is what the future holds for Lake George if nutrients from wastewater and stormwater runoff continue to enter the Lake at high volumes — presently in the billions of gallons every year. These nutrients feed algae growth and harmful algal blooms.

By creating the World’s Smartest Lake, The Jefferson Project is providing the data and knowledge to also make Lake George the World’s Best Protected Lake.

4 | The Jefferson Project at Lake George

20 INNOVATIONS PATENTED IN 8 YEARS 05 July 18, 2016 01 Patent 9395219 Ring-based monitoring of sensor mesh networks December 6, 2016 02 Patent 9514256 Method and system for modeling turbulent flows in an advectiondiffusion process

2016

2017

03

04

06

November 5, 2018 Patent 10120103 Intelligent/autonomous thermocline mapping and monitoring for marine and freshwater applications December 31, 2018 Patent 10168449 Correcting computer model weather forecasts using a hybrid analog method with dynamic time warping

2018

February 20, 2017 Patent 9575554 Dynamic time sliced sensor sampling for reduced power consumption April 11, 2017 Patent 9619594 Configuration of large-scale advection-diffusion models with predetermined rules

2019

07

11

12

March 2, 2020 Patent 10578771 Temporal bias correction in wind forecasting April 27, 2020 Patent 10635702 Inferring ecological niche model input layers and predicting a future geospatial location of a species

2020

January 1, 2019 Patent 10169332 Data analysis for automated coupling of simulation models

June 10, 2019 08 Patent 10318558 Automating weather model configurations June 10, 2019 09 Patent 10319229 Data mining for alerts regarding road conditions

10

August 19, 2019 Patent 10386543 Temporal bias correction in wind forecasting

18

19

2021

13

14

May 2, 2022 Patent 11322033 Remote surface condition assessment September 12, 2022 Patent 11441935 Flow rate determination based on limited observations

2022

January 25, 2021 20 Patent 10902260 Estimating a height of a cloud depicted in an image April 5, 2021 Patent 9928319 Flexible framework for ecological niche modeling July 26, 2021

15 Patent 11074319

Augmenting model-tomodel coupling with highfrequency observations

16

17

2023

August 2, 2021 Patent 11080141 Automatic restarting and reconfiguration of physicsbased models in event of model failure November 29, 2021 Patent 11189178 Remote sensor monitoring using LED transmission

March 27, 2023 Patent 11614560 Integration of physical sensors in a data assimilation framework

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 5

POWERING THE WORLD’S SMARTEST LAKE

50+

INTELLIGENT SENSOR PLATFORMS

Types of Platforms Weather stations for conditions on and around the Lake Tributary stations for stream water quality Vertical profilers for deep water monitoring

60

500+

RESEARCHERS

24/7

SENSORS COLLECT 18 WATER QUALITY INDICATOR VARIABLES DATA ON LAKE GEORGE

Types of Sensors CTD sensors for stream depth, temperature, salt Optical colorimetric sensors for water turbidity Static sensor chains for winter data collection Multipurpose sensors to measure dissolved oxygen, turbidity, chlorophyll, phycocyanin, dissolved organic matter, pH/ORP, and other attributes

9

TERABYTES OF DATA PER YEAR

Data for Modeling

Computer Models for Prediction

Up to 9 terabytes (9,000,000,000,000 bytes) of three-dimensional data are collected from up to 36 locations per year

Weather model: Uses IBM’s Deep Thunder high-resolution forecasting technology

This data is used for models that fuel the Project’s Scenario Engine, generating 73 terabytes of data annually In comparison, the Hubble Space Telescope generates 10 terabytes of data per year

Runoff model: Shows how precipitation moves through the Lake George watershed Salt model: Estimates the road salt inputs into Lake George tributaries and the Lake Circulation model: Tracks water movement and substances within the Lake Food web model: Predicts dynamics from phytoplankton to fish

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BREAKTHROUGH

no.2

CRACKING THE CODE OF HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS

THE BREAKTHROUGH We have identified the series of events that led to the first confirmed harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Lake George, and we are now nearing completion of models that can predict the emergence of HABs days in advance. Freshwater HABs are defined by the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation as dense concentrations (blooms) of single-celled algae-like bacteria called cyanobacteria (also known as blue-green algae).

WHAT THIS TELLS US The potential for far-reaching, long-lasting, and even toxic HABs in Lake George, like those that have affected other lakes and lake-based economies, is very real.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LAKE PROTECTION With the ability to accurately forecast HABs, we can determine effective preventive actions on land and in the water, and provide early warnings to protect people, pets, and properties.

At first glance, Lake George doesn’t meet the classic profile of a lake with harmful algal blooms (HABs), which typically includes high nutrient levels, warm water temperatures, and calm conditions. Yet, that hasn’t stopped HABs from developing in Lake George several times in recent years.

Given the risks HABs pose to the Lake and the region’s Lakebased economy, The Jefferson Project is focused intently on identifying the physical, chemical, and biological circumstances that led to the recent HABs so we can predict future blooms and protect the Lake from harm. Through an extensive review of the circumstances preceding the Lake’s first observed HABs in November 2020, we’ve traced its origins back more than a year earlier.

In October 2019, three major storms caused the Lake’s water level to rise 10 inches (see chart). Typically, water levels vary by an inch or two. All this stormwater flushed much largerthan-usual amounts of sediments and nutrients into the Lake, fertilizing the Lake bottom for the growth of cyanobacteria, which make up HABs. The following November, unseasonably warm weather followed a period of deep mixing of the Lake’s water layers, providing just the right growing conditions for cyanobacteria. Nutrients from deep in the Lake were brought close to the surface, where the warm temperatures and calm water caused cyanobacteria to grow and aggregate.

This discovery of the influence of severe storms is helping Jefferson Project researchers to pinpoint the exact combination of factors that trigger HABs. We’re also investigating the triggers that make HABs toxic; so far no toxins have been found in the Lake.

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 7

6" OCT 2019 STORMS

5" 4" 3" 2" 1"

TYPICAL RANGE OF DAILY LAKE LEVEL CHANGES

0" -1" -2"

1970

PRESENT

Our HABs research is centered around two predictive computer models. One model looks at where the nutrients that feed algae growth are coming from. The data show it’s primarily from the streams. What’s more, we’ve learned that when nutrients enter the Lake, they sink and then spread out, creating a nursery for cyanobacteria along the bottom. Later in the year, and under the right conditions, those cyanobacteria can move and aggregate at the surface. That is what we see as a HAB. The second model uses data from our high-frequency Lake sensors to tell us what happens in the water prior to a bloom.

Specifically, The Jefferson Project uses sensors that detect and track a pigment produced by cyanobacteria. This pigment helps researchers forecast HABs days before the bloom forms. As we further refine the model, our aim is to create an extended “early warning” capability.

What feeds algal blooms Nutrients — nitrogen and phosphorus in particular — are the food that fuel algal blooms in the Lake. To understand the amount of nutrients that enter the Lake and under what conditions, known as external loading, The Jefferson Project built the stream monitoring network in Lake George. This data informs measures that can be taken to mitigate external loading, including stormwater management. The other type of nutrient input — internal loading — also concerns our researchers, in part because it’s harder to control. Internal loading is when nutrients immersed in the Lake’s sediment are released into the water. This can happen on windy days, and when the layers of water in the Lake are mixing. We’ve also learned that when the oxygen gets low, phosphorus is often released from the sediment and can lead to HABs.

Why a clean lake can act like a polluted one Lake George is largely pristine, but it only takes a small influx of nutrient-polluted waters to harm the Lake.

It starts with the thermocline, where warm water at the Lake’s surface meets the cold water below it. Internal waves that rise and fall by several meters can develop at the thermocline.

While at Skaneateles Lake in central New York, Jefferson Project researchers noticed internal waves contributing to algal blooms. Through lake modeling, they detected the internal waves raking the side of the lakebed at certain depths. This scraping caused sediment filled with dormant cyanobacteria and nutrients that feed it to plume in the water. As the cyanobacteria germinated and grew, conditions became conducive to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs).

Back in Lake George, researchers saw similar internal wave activity, and found more to the story of internal waves and HABs — large amounts of nutrients coming from streams. If stream water enters Lake George when there is a thermocline, it can wedge itself between the warm and cold water and ride the internal wave. This keeps the high nutrient load intact and concentrated, enabling the formation of blooms in specific areas of the Lake.

An algal bloom in Basin Bay, Lake George, in 2022.

8 | The Jefferson Project at Lake George

BREAKTHROUGH

no.3

WE KNOW WHERE INVASIVES AND SUBSTANCES WILL GO THE BREAKTHROUGH We’ve developed a 3D computer model of Lake George’s complex circulation patterns, which shows us where and why the water flows the way it does, and what happens to foreign materials that enter the Lake.

WHAT THIS TELLS US In Lake George, everything is connected.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LAKE PROTECTION When a foreign substance enters the Lake, either accidentally or intentionally, we can predict where it will travel, how long it will stay, and how it will affect the water and ecosystem. This informs how to mitigate or prevent harm.

PARTICLES 0 HRS PARTICLES 24 HRS

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 9

DATA ARE COLLECTED FOUR TIMES PER SECOND FOR THE MOST ACCURATE PICTURE POSSIBLE OF LAKE ACTIVITY

What happens when a sewage leak enters Lake George? When a chemical is spilled or dumped in a nearby stream? When a new invasive species lands in the Lake?

To understand where and how quickly these materials would travel, how long they would stay, and what the impacts could be, The Jefferson Project has created sophisticated hydrodynamic models that simulate the path of substances in or entering the Lake.

The Jefferson Project’s models are driven by massive amounts of data collected on a continual basis by our many sensors in and around the Lake. The sensors track water mass movement and measure such things as the velocity of currents, as well as winds and solar radiation. Data are collected as frequently as four times per second to give us the most accurate picture possible of conditions, from shallow near-shore areas to the darkest depths.

Predicting movement in a body of water like Lake George is a substantial challenge. While the surface may look calm, in reality, the Lake is a dynamic system, and its waters are always moving.

What happens in one bay does not stay there.

In one simulation by our model, for example, a release of particles in the vicinity of Million Dollar Beach showed that after a strong northward wind, the particles traveled several miles north within 24 hours (see chart), close to Assembly Point, where they were then dispersed at various depths. Depending on what the particles are in real life, the consequences could be significant.

That’s why we also monitor the Lake’s food web — a model created by The Jefferson Project of all the organisms that live in the waters of Lake George and depend on each other for a balanced ecosystem. Using that data with our other ecosystem models, we can forecast the impact of an environmental change in the Lake, including introduction of foreign matter, to further build out predictions should a harmful intrusion occur.

If a harmful intrusion does occur, Jefferson Project researchers are poised to put our model into action. For example, our data can help environmental professionals and local governments understand a specific situation by providing information crucial to an effective response. Project models can also be used in reverse fashion — to identify the source of a problem that may have only surfaced miles away.

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BREAKTHROUGH

no.4

AS SALT LEVELS GO DOWN, LAKE RESILIENCE GOES UP

THE BREAKTHROUGH Dramatically rising salinity levels in the Lake, caused by the increasing use of road salt for de-icing, will slow down — and with continued improvements in salt application, it may decline in years to come.

WE’RE SEEING LOWER SALINITY LEVELS IN SOME LAKE TRIBUTARIES, NOTABLY A 38% REDUCTION IN HAGUE BROOK

WHAT THIS TELLS US The drop in salinity observed in some areas is directly connected to the LGA’s Lake George Road Salt Reduction Initiative.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LAKE PROTECTION While it will take time for the salt in the soil and groundwater to dissipate, continued progress in reducing the use of road salt is mitigating the amount of salt in the water. Over time, there will be less salt in our drinking water, fewer trees will die because of “salt sinks” in the soil, and less calcium will be released into the Lake’s tributaries. Lower salt levels may even help reduce the growth of micro-algae in Lake George.

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One of the first questions posed to The Jefferson Project when it was established in 2013 was whether the Lake George Road Salt Reduction Initiative’s goal of a 50% reduction in winter road salt application in the watershed would have a meaningful impact on the health of the Lake. The answer is a clear yes.

Through the use of the Project’s Scenario Engine, a predictive computer model, researchers have been simulating the application of salt onto local roads and tracking its long and persistently harmful journey through roadside streams and groundwater into the Lake. At the same time, researchers ran numerous experiments to understand the impacts of rising road salt on the Lake’s food web.

What we’ve found is salt can take years, even decades, to reach the Lake, which means what was applied to driveways and roads many years ago is just now impacting Lake George. And those impacts are serious and accumulating.

High chloride levels from excessive salt use can have adverse effects on the entire food web, from the tiniest zooplankton to the largest trout, upsetting the balance of the ecosystem and, ultimately, harming the Lake. Take zooplankton, for instance.

These tiny animals feed on even tinier algae, which, without a natural predator, could grow into harmful algal blooms.

The loss of biodiversity as a result of excessive salt levels also impacts the Lake’s resiliency. It is well documented that a more biodiverse lake is healthier and more resilient in the face of major storms and other shocks to the lake’s system.

Moreover, studies have also shown that excessive salt levels infiltrating drinking water supplies can have serious health consequences for people.

The good news is we’re starting to see lower salinity levels in some of the tributaries feeding the Lake, most notably a 38% reduction in Hague Brook — a direct result of the Lake George Road Salt Reduction Initiative and the outstanding commitment of the Town of Hague Highway Department to reduce its road salt use.

Looking into the future, with the continued success of local road salt reduction efforts, our Scenario Engine predicts that salt levels in Lake George will plateau and may decline. Even more important, our long-term models show that with less road salt entering the water, Lake George will gain back the resiliency it has lost to salt over the past decades.

Road salt alternatives are not the answer It sounds logical: Applying natural compounds to winter roads to reduce the use of road salt would be good for the health of Lake George. Testing by The Jefferson Project proved otherwise.

Focusing on effects to the Lake’s complex food web, researchers used hundreds of mesocosms (shown on left) to test different types of de-icing road salts, including salts made with organic additives, such as beet juice and distillation byproducts.

As it turned out, NaCl, sodium chloride commonly known as road salt, had the smallest impacts on the Lake’s aquatic community. Magnesium chloride, which contains about two-thirds less chloride than NaCl, reduced the diversity of zooplankton, microscopic animals that play a fundamental role in the food web.

The salts made with organic additives reduced the amount of dissolved oxygen in the Lake water and added carbon dioxide, presenting the potential to deprive aquatic life of necessary oxygen in localized areas. And the microbial breakdown of the additives also introduced nutrients that can promote algal growth.

The answer for Lake protection is to continue reducing the use of traditional road salt rather than switching to salts with organic components.

12 | The Jefferson Project at Lake George

BREAKTHROUGH

no.5

THE LAKE ISN’T RUNNING OUT OF OXYGEN... YET THE BREAKTHROUGH The oxygen levels in Lake George, feared to be dramatically decreasing 10 years ago, remain sufficient for the ecosystem at this time.

WHAT THIS TELLS US Lake George is not in immediate danger of turning anoxic (depleted of dissolved oxygen), but without proactive measures, warming temperatures and excess nutrients could push it over the edge in years to come.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LAKE PROTECTION Lack of oxygen can kill fish and cause the release of algae-feeding phosphorous from the Lake bottom — further reducing oxygen in the water. While we can’t control warming temperatures at the local level, we can control how we care for the Lake. Vigilantly reducing nutrients in the Lake to prevent algae growth can help sustain oxygen levels and water clarity.

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 13

O2 MG/L

DEPTH 0"

12.5 10.0

10"

7.5 5.0

20"

2.5

MAY

A healthy supply of oxygen is just as vital for the survival of animals and plants in the water as it is for those on land.

Since its inception in 2013, The Jefferson Project has been deploying sensors across the Lake to track oxygen levels, temperature, and nutrient concentrations throughout the water column — from top to bottom. As shown in the graph, our monitoring reveals that oxygen levels can get low in deep waters in late summer and fall, but the Lake still has sufficient supply to support most types of fish and other organisms.

The current data generally look good, but the long-term trends are worrying, especially when we look at two key factors that affect oxygen levels in Lake George: water temperature and nutrients.

The Lake’s water temperature has increased by approximately 4°F since 1980, and large amounts of nutrients continue to enter the Lake and its tributaries through stormwater runoff and from aging and failing septic systems.

Warmer temperatures and less ice coverage result in longer periods of lake stratification; that is, when the upper and lower layers of water don’t mix but remain as separate zones — cutting off deeper water from oxygen exchange and renewal from the atmosphere. This is a result of our changing climate and will take a global effort to solve.

2022

DEC

Nutrient levels, however, are well within our own control.

When nitrogen and phosphorous enter the Lake, they feed algae growth and can lead to widespread algal blooms. And while algae produce oxygen in the top layer of water, when the cells die and decompose on the bottom of the Lake, the process consumes oxygen from an already oxygen-starved environment. This can then trigger a troublesome cycle, because when oxygen levels become low at the bottom of the Lake, the sediment begins to naturally release phosphorous, which in turn leads to more algae growth and a perpetuation of the oxygenloss problem.

In short, less nutrients in the water means improved oxygen levels and an overall healthier Lake George. And that’s where everyone who owns property in the Lake George watershed comes in. By implementing stormwater controls and keeping septic systems maintained, the flow of nutrients into the Lake will decrease — to the direct and lasting benefit of our Lake.

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BREAKTHROUGH

no.6

CLIMATE CHANGE POSES UNPRECEDENTED THREAT TO LAKE GEORGE

THE BREAKTHROUGH Severe storms brought on by climate change are responsible for as much as 75% of the phosphorous and 90% of the sediment that enters the Lake.

WHAT THIS TELLS US Unbridled stormwater runoff is arguably the number-one threat to Lake George. The escalating influx of phosphorus intensifies the possibility of harmful algal blooms, while the increasing amount of sediment creates habitat in shallower waters more hospitable to some invasive species, such as Asian clams and zebra mussels.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LAKE PROTECTION As climate change increases the stress on Lake George, we must compensate for its impacts with proactive protection that helps maintain the Lake’s natural resilience.

3 BILLION GALLONS OF NUTRIENT-LADEN STORMWATER RUN INTO LAKE GEORGE EVERY YEAR

Adirondack Park

Lake George

Temp deg F/yr 0.81 0.63

Rising temperatures in the Adirondack Park Since 1984, air temperatures in the park have increased due to climate change, with some areas rising by nearly 3.5 °F. In the Lake George region, temperatures have risen 2.7 °F. While this is a slower increase than the average across the park, Lake George has some of the warmest weather in this region. These temperature increases mean shorter winters and longer summers are becoming the norm throughout the Adirondacks.

Source: North American Land Data Assimilation System

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 15

FROM 1990 TO PRESENT SOUTHERN LAKE GEORGE AVERAGED

2.4

7.2

SEVERE STORMS

THAN THE MORE PER YEAR PREVIOUS

3 DECADES

Climate change has broad implications for the health of Lake George — the most visible and significant of which is the increasing frequency of severe storms.

Present trends are predicted to get worse unless major steps are taken to prevent nutrients and sediments from being washed into the water.

Data collected at Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport in Queensbury, NY, show that between 1960 and 1989 the region averaged 4.8 storms per year of one inch or more of rain. Since 1990, we’ve averaged 7.2 storms per year of this severity. Total rainfall has increased from an average of 31 inches per year between 1960 and 1989 to 38.5 inches per year from 1990 to 2022.

To pinpoint where Lake protection efforts are most needed, our researchers monitor 10 of the largest streams that flow into Lake George to better understand when and where nutrients, sediments, and salt enter the Lake, where they go, and what effect they have. Researchers are also working to identify which streams are the biggest contributors of elevated nutrient loading.

When severe storms occur, the rain usually comes down too fast and hard for soils to absorb it. This means large volumes of stormwater flow quickly across the landscape, picking up nutrients from fertilizers and other sources and carrying them into streams and the Lake itself. Heavy stormwater runoff also erodes hillsides and riverbanks, flushing sediments into the water.

One of the most effective ways to minimize the amount of nutrients and sediment entering streams and the Lake is through the creation of natural buffers along streams and the shoreline to impede the flow of stormwater and prompt greater infiltration into the ground, where nutrients and sediment can be filtered out.

Jefferson Project monitoring data show us that: Phosphorus concentrations in stream water increase at least seven-fold during severe storms. Phosphorus is the key nutrient driving plant and algae growth in Lake George.

Major storms typically deliver less than half of the annual amount of water entering Lake George but can account for as much as 75% of the phosphorus and more than 90% of the sediments entering the Lake. These inputs can cloud the water and reduce water clarity, fuel algal growth, and, over time, create shallow deltas that provide prime habitat for some invasive species.

The Lake George Association offers helpful information on stormwater management at LakeGeorgeAssocation.org, where anyone can sign up to become a Lake Protector and receive a personalized protection profile with guidance on how to protect Lake George.

16 | The Jefferson Project at Lake George

INFORMING THE FUTURE OF LAKE MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION When The Jefferson Project began in 2013, the priorities were invasive species, rising salt levels, and declining water quality and clarity. These issues were identified through painstaking analysis of decades of manually sampled data collected by researchers on the Lake since 1980, and they became the focal points around which The Jefferson Project research, monitoring, and forecasting programs were developed.

In the past 10 years, The Jefferson Project has revolutionized that manual science into a sophisticated network that would have been inconceivable a generation ago. For example, the Project collects more data in a single day than in the previous 30 years combined. As highlighted in these pages, breakthroughs of The Jefferson Project over the last decade have transformed our understanding of many aspects of the historical challenges facing Lake George. However, as made clear in this report, new threats have also emerged, the most visible being harmful algal blooms.

Today, threats new and old are compounded by the intensifying impacts of climate change. Indeed, a changing climate has added more complexity to the critical challenges confronting the health and integrity of Lake George. Through it all, The Jefferson Project has become a globally renowned model for collaboration, scientific insight, and effective partnerships specifically designed to account for and address complexity, now and for decades to come. This unparalleled capability is fundamental to the contributions being made by the Project toward the future of lake management and protection.

Investments in The Jefferson Project made 10 years ago, and that continue each year, have yielded vital knowledge on how the Lake George ecosystem functions and what it may look like in the decades ahead. Understanding and forecasting water quality and informing mitigation of detrimental impacts remain a core purpose by which The Jefferson Project operates. It is with this purpose and the shared resolve of our partners and the many supporters who make our work possible that we face the future with a strong sense of promise.

Information is power, and The Jefferson Project is empowering what we know to light the way on what we do. As threats to the Lake mount, we are forging the path ahead to understand and guide the sustained protection of Lake George—and to serve as a working example others can follow.

To learn more, join us at jeffersonproject.live.

10 Years of Breakthroughs for Lasting Lake Protection | 17

THE PEOPLE WHO POWER THE JEFFERSON PROJECT AT LAKE GEORGE THE JEFFERSON PROJECT STEERING COMMITTEE

Laurie Ahrens Senior Research Specialist

Maria Pelusi Research Specialist

Michael Kelly Senior Research Scientist

Dr. John E. Kelly III IBM Executive (retired), Chair of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Board, Founding Project Sponsor

Michael Blonski Research Specialist

Abby Ross Research Specialist

John Ma Senior Software Engineer

Jonathan Borrelli Postdoctoral Scholar

Kathleen Ruiz Arts Department

Vincent Moriarty Senior Research Scientist

Jonas Braasch School of Architecture and Experimental Media and Performing Arts Center (EMPAC)

Glenn Saunders Senior Research Program Director

Anthony Praino Senior Research Scientist

Dr. Martin Schmidt President of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Peter Menzies Chair of the Lake George Association Board

Dr. Shirley Ann Jackson President of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (1999-2022), Founding Project Sponsor Jeff Killeen Former Chair of the Lake George Association Board, Founding Project Sponsor

Manuel Castro Berman Postdoctoral Scholar Jonathan Dordick Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Biomedical Engineering, and Biological Sciences Susan Gilbert Department of Biological Sciences Jennifer Hurley Department of Biological Sciences

RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE

Allison Hrycik Research Scientist

Kevin Rose Department of Biological Sciences, Project Director of The Jefferson Project and Darrin Fresh Water Institute

Mark Lucius Software Engineer

Rick Relyea Department of Biological Sciences, Project Director, 2014-2022.

Brian Mattes Senior Research Specialist Thomas Morgan Senior Research Scientist Sandra Nierzwicki-Bauer Department of Biological Sciences and Associate Director of the Darrin Fresh Water Institute

Shayla Sawyer Department of Electrical, Computer, and Systems Engineering Morgan Schaller Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Jacob Shelley Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology Sasha Wagner Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences David Winkler Senior Research Specialist

IBM RESEARCH Harry Kolar Associate Project Director of The Jefferson Project, IBM Fellow Guillaume Auger Staff Research Scientist Michael Henderson Principal Research Scientist

Mukul Tewari Staff Research Scientist Lloyd Treinish IBM Distinguished Engineer

LAKE GEORGE ASSOCIATION Eric Siy Associate Project Director of The Jefferson Project, LGA President Chris Navitsky Lake George Waterkeeper Monika LaPlante Managing Program Director Brea Arvidson Manager, Water Quality Research Randy Rath Lake Protection & Geospatial Systems Analyst

dfwi@rpi.edu

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