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 8 ภ ภ  Investment Analysis

! " #$"%& ' ภ( (EC 912) %0 11ภ"2ภ#!1345 2 6  ' ภ( 789:;<!= 9"%& ( 9( > 6 ! # (ภ6 " #$"%& 


1 ?<@"2ก# 1.  ก      ก

1.1 ก       ก    1.2 ก         1.3 ก       ก "#ก

1.4 ก       ก  2. #ก ก%&ก    ก ''( #'(   2.1 )   (Payback Period) 2.2 # 7' 89:) (ARR)  # 7' " กก  (ROI)


3. ?(     ภภ#  4. #ภภ%&ภ   ภ'' #'(   4.1 )  '' #'(   (Discounted Payback Period : DPB) 4.2 ?( G""'#H ภ(NPV) 4.3 # (7'( (B/C Ratio) 4.4 # 7' ภ(IRR) 5. ภ   ( ภ(Sensitivity Analysis)


1. B 8Cก  D 4EF4F8<?@7 ก '(ก  4  #9R 1.1 ก       ก    1.2 ก         1.3 ก       ก "#ก

1.4 ก       ก 


2. ก 7 ก BFD=4 1 =?@

 2.1 9

 G (Payback Period)  )  9:7'H" กก S   ( ก#' ( T"( )  ก  : ก &1 @9= 1  ก U:9( T"( ) ก  : ก 1,000 '  ( T" ( ) ก S  X 100 '  ( ก#กX  ก 7'  )  5 X ) #' X9: 1,2,……5 ( ก#' 300, 400, 500, 600  700 '   S #'  ก 9R9 )   ( ก#' ( 


45

1

=C!<(=9Cก =C!<(=9Cก :&@B  DB ก 80  

100

300

200

2

100

400

300 900

3

100

500

400

4

100

600

500

5

100

700

600

500

2,500

2,000

D

1,000

:&@B%' (กก 80  

1,000


 ก 9 )   3 Xก( ) 3 X ก  #' 7' H" กก S   (200+300+400) ( ก#' 900 '  (9 ( T"( ) ก  : ก 1,000 '  (9: "U" กก 9)' '#]]# ) ^ :&@B%' RC45 4 (0  500  C!< 9

 12

8G@ :&@B%' RC45 4 (0  (1,000-900) =100  C!< 9

 12× ×100 500 = 2.4 8G@

8113 9

 G?@7 ก 3 @G 3 45 ก1 2.4 8G@ 7 ก 3= W D 9

 G X


)   (Payback Period) 9"(9:S #])?( 2  ŕ¸

 1) #ภภ%&9R (S U_U?(     (time value of money) 2) #ภภ%&9R (S U_Uภ7'H" ภŕ¸

S  # )    ภ9:9( T"( ) ภ : ภ)  "  )  ภ b %9: ภ9:9 ( T"( ) ภ : ภ? 9 )     "  7'  )  )   ##R ภ# " ภ  ภ9:9 )   b  " ภ# "9:7 c  


2.2 @1& :&@B Y9 (ARR)  G@@1& :&@B(กก  (ROI) ARR  G@ ROI =

ก0F Y9 × 100 =13D8 &1 @9= 2 (ก7(9C G@ก  9

 G(ก&1 @9= 1 =C!<(=9Cก  = 1,000  ก0F B&=45 = :&@B%' (กก 80  CB&=451ก8< 9 = %G@D   (1,000 ÷ 5) =ก1 200  ก0F Y9 = 0 + 100 + 200 + 300 + 400 = 1,000/5 = 200 5


ARR   ROI = =

=

กS  89:) ( #R 200 × 100 1,000 20 %

× 100

#ก ก%& ARR   ROI 9R _(  ( ):?):9 )S  ARR   ROI 9:  9)'ก#'# 7'#R:S 9:กS  _ ( 9:?ก(   ( ก#' ก%&#R:S กb ก  ก #R


?<@8 ?@ ARR  G@ ROI 1) W ( 6:&@B%' &@8@97 ก ^2?<@3Bก<?<@(0ก18?@ 9

 GF8< 2) 0 6=9 B 8@1& :&@BC ;4 <@9 ^2 4E < 9ก1 4E @9=8 ?<@กW =@?@ ก6_3 1) FD= 02`2 =?@  &D

 2) ก0F BC1a!D9 = 0C< ARR  G@ ROI D9 =&DF4 8< 9 0C< ก 8 D%1%B@(?<@9& = Dก1F8<9ก 3) FD= 02`2@97 ก 8113 `<D97 ก D ARR =ก1 B&=@9 7 ก B&ก&=ก1 (0C<FD=%D `&18% C(F8< =%D G@กC 7 ก C8


3. D; =?@  &D

 Bภ G@ภ@1&  88 ภ #'?(     ?( G""'# T? #9R 1 PV = F Ă&#x2014; (1 + r ) n :

PV F r n

= = = =

?( G""'# (present value) ?(    (future value) #  (discount rate) "S X


&1 @9= 3 " ก#)(   _  ก#'(  110 '  X  "9?( G""'# (  :#  # ก '9R) ก? ( ก#' ) 10 " ( 1 PV = F × (1 + r) n = = = =

1 (1 + 10%)

110 × 110 × 1 (1 + 0.1) 110× 0.909 100 


&1 @9= 4  1,000 '  9: '# X9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 9 ?( G""'# ก# (  :#  # ก '9R) ก? ( ก#' ) 10 1 PV = F × (1 + r ) n 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 = (1 + 0.1) + + (1 + 0.1) 3 + (1 + 0.1) 4 + (1 + 0.1) 5 2 (1 + 0.1) 1 , 000 1 , 000 1 , 000 1 , 000 = 1,1000 + + + + (1 . 1 ) .1 (1 . 1 ) (1 . 1 ) 3 (1 . 1 ) 1 , 000 1 , 000 = 1,000 + 1 . 21 + 1 . 33 + 1, 000 + 1, 000 1 . 46 1 . 61 1 .1 = 909 + 826 + 751 + 683 + 621 D; =4b((1 = 3,790  1

2

4

5


ภ" ภS % ) T  :  )#  _ ?( G""'#ภ9 2 H9  Tc  ) T ภ Excel S %    TH9 k  Discount factor  9: 1 )? 9: r = 10% X (n) 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 " ภ") #)( 9: 4  ภTH9 k  c:T() ภS % ( G""'# "#9R PV = (1,000Ă&#x2014;0.909) + (1,000Ă&#x2014;0.826) + (1,000Ă&#x2014;0.751) + (1,000Ă&#x2014;0.683) + (1,000Ă&#x2014;0.621) = 909 + 826 + 751 + 683 + 621 D; =4b((1 = 3,790 


D%1DW1'  =@1&  88ภ1D; =4b((1 B(0 45ภ1D; =4b((1 (ภ&  1 Discount Factor ( XF8< = @1&  88ภ1D; =4b((1 D D%1DW1'C1ภ#6B4 :ภ:1ภ1 ภ= G@ @1&  889 %;?23 D; = 4b((1(9 8 !=   1  (F8< 1C45< (451) (D = =F C 4b((1 `<@1&  88 =ภ1 `<@1&  88 =ภ1 `<@1&  88 =ภ1 `<@1&  88 =ภ1 `<@1&  88 =ภ1 `<@1&  88 =ภ1

1% D; =4b((1?@   1  =ภ1 10% D; =4b((1?@   1  =ภ1 20% D; =4b((1?@   1  =ภ1 30% D; =4b((1?@   1  =ภ1 40% D; =4b((1?@   1  =ภ1 50% D; =4b((1?@   1  =ภ1

0.990 0.909 0.823 0.769 0.714 0.667

     


"S Xก#'?( G""'# กb9 #c#H #กl% 7ก7#ก# ก(  "S X  ): กUR ?( G""'#"): T(  1 '    "9?( G""'# (  :#   # ก '9R) ก? ( ก#' ) 10      

1 1 1 1 1 1

'  X9: '  X9: '  X9: '  X9: '  X9: '  X9:

1 9?( G""'# ( ก#' 10 9?( G""'# ( ก#' 20 9?( G""'# ( ก#' 30 9?( G""'# ( ก#' 40 9?( G""'# ( ก#' 50 9?( G""'# ( ก#'

0.909 0.386 0.149 0.057 0.022 0.009

'  '  '  '  '  ' 


4. 1ภภ6_ภ 7 ภ B4 1 =?@

 #ภภ%&ภ   ภ'' #'(   9:) T9 #(9R 4.1 )  '' #'(   (Discounted Payback Period : DPB) 4.2 ?( G""'#H ภ(NPV) 4.3 # (7'( (B/C Ratio) 4.4 # 7' ภ(IRR)


4.1 9

 G4 1 =?@

 (Discounted Payback Period :DPB)  )  9:7'H" ภภS  9: #'(    9 ( ( ภ#' ( T"( ) ภ : ภ&1 @9= 5 " ภ#)( 9: 2  )   3 X ภ#' 2.4  _ # ภ'9)R ภ? ( ภ#' ) 10 " )  '' #'(   (DPB)  ( 


45

DF :&@B%' =C!<(=9 =C!<(=9 : :&@  80   &@B B%' R=10% 4 1 =?@



1

1,000

100

300

200

0.909

182

2

100

400

300

0.826

248 730

3

100

500

400

0.751

300

4

100

600

500

0.683

342

5

100

700

600

0.621

373

500

2,500

2,000

D

1,000

1,445


=C!<(=9Cก  DB ก DG@4 1 =?@

B< D = (1,000 × 0.909)

=ก1 909  8113 7 ก (D 9

 G 3 45ก = 789 3 45B ก F8< 1:&@B%' (กก 80  4 1 =?@

B<

(182+248+300) =ก1 730  B&=D =C!<(=9Cก  DB ก4 1 = ?@

B<

=ก1 909  %=  G@(2F8<(กก 91aa1& F& 9" :&@B%' RC45 4 (0  342  C!< 9

 12

8G@ :&@B%' RC45 4 (0  (909-730) =179  C!< 9

 12× ×179 342 = 6.28

8G@ 8113 9

 GB4 1 =?@

(DPB)?@7 ก 3 G@ 3 45 ก1 6.28 8G@ 7 ก 3= G@(กD 9

 G%13


4.2 D; =4b((1%' (Net Present Value : NPV)7  7' H9: #'(    mU:9? ภS %#9R D; =4b((1%' (NPV) = : D?@:&@B%' F8<4 1 =?@

B<

NPV =

Bt â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Ct â&#x2C6;&#x2018; t t =1 (1 + r) n

D; =4b((1%' (NPV) = D; =4b((1?@:&@B - D; =4b((1?@ =C!<(=9

 

NPV = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;n

DG@

Bt Ct r t n

= = = = =

Bt t t =1(1 + r)

- â&#x2C6;&#x2018;n

Ct t t =1(1+ r)

:&@BC45 t &<C45 t @1&  88 45?@7 ภ ^2D =&13B&= 1,2,3,mm.n (0 4513% 3?@7 ภ  G@@97 ภ 1 @


NPV > 0  G@ 4E ก %D  &1 @9= 6 Cก &13%`1%@>#@1กo# %9 = !=%`45 200,000  789D%1aa != 4E 9

 10 45 @ก(ก13 91&<@

%9 =C!<(=9Cก 4 14 %` =&กB&= B = G@C!<%01ก @ก 500,000  =C!<(=9Cก 80  C45 2 (0  1,200,000  B W D?2345 10% ก45 (`245 10 %=  =C!<(=9Cก 80  C45 1 8 4E 40% ?@ =C!<(=9Cก 80  C45 2 8 =(F8<:&@B 4E 945813 :&@BC45 1 800,000  :&@BC45 2 2,000,000  :&@BC45 3 2,500,000  :&@B&13B&=45 4-10  G@45 3,000,000  `<@1&  88 =ก1 8% D; =4b((1%' (NPV) ?@7 ก 3( 4E =F B1ก' ก (%D (C7 ก 3 G@FD=


45 =4 1

= !=

=C!<(=9

=C!<(=9

:

:&@

DF

PV ?@

4 

%`

80  

D

&@B

B%'

r = 8%

:&@B %'

500,000

200,000

480,000

1,180,000

800,000

-380,000

0.926

-351,880

2

200,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2,000,000

600,000

0.857

514,200

3

200,000

1,320,000

1,520,000

2,500,000

980,000

0.794

778,120

4

200,000

1,452,000

1,652,000

3,000,000

1,348,000

0.735

990,780

5

200,000

1,597,200

1,797,200

3,000,000

1,202,800

0.681

819,107

6

200,000

1,756,920

1,956,920

3,000,000

1,043,080

0.630

657,140

7

200,000

1,932,612

2,132,612

3,000,000

867,388

0.583

505,687

8

200,000

2,125,873

2,325,873

3,000,000

674,127

0.540

364,028

9

200,000

2,338,461

2,538,461

3,000,000

461,539

0.500

230,770

10

200,000

2,572,307

2,772,307

3,000,000

227,693

0.463

105,422

D 500,000 2,000,000

16,775,372

19,275,372

26,300,000

7,024,628

1

4,613,375


?( G""'#H (NPV) = 7 7'H9: #'(    n Bt − Ct NPV= t∑=1 (1 + r)t = 4,613,375 7 ก D3  NPV 4E ก  G@Dกก = 0 B%8 =D; =4b((1 ?@ :&@B DDกก =D; =4b((1?@&< D 8113(2 %D 


4.3 @1& %= :&@B&=@&<(Benefit q Cost Ratio : B/C Ratio) 7 ?( G""'#7' ) ภ(7  ?( G""'#  B/C = ?( G""'#7' (PVB) ?( G""'#( T"( ) (PVC) Bt â&#x2C6;&#x2018; t t =1(1 + r) n

=

Ct t t =1(1 + r) n

â&#x2C6;&#x2018;

B/C > 1

 


&1 @9= 7 " ก") #)( 9: 6  B/C #9R 45

=4 1

= !=

=C!<(=9

=C!<(=9

:

DF

PV ?@

PV ?@

%`

%`

80  

D

&@B

r = 8%

=C!<(=9

:&@B

500,000

200,000

480,000

1,180,000

800,000

0.926

1,092,680

740,800

2

200,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2,000,000

0.857

1,199,800

1,714,000

3

200,000

1,320,000

1,520,000

2,500,000

0.794

1,206,880

1,985,000

4

200,000

1,452,000

1,652,000

3,000,000

0.735

1,214,220

2,205,000

5

200,000

1,597,200

1,797,200

3,000,000

0.681

1,223,893

2,043,000

6

200,000

1,756,920

1,956,920

3,000,000

0.630

1,232,860

1,890,000

7

200,000

1,932,612

2,132,612

3,000,000

0.583

1,243,313

1,749,000

8

200,000

2,125,873

2,325,873

3,000,000

0.540

1,255,972

1,620,000

9

200,000

2,338,461

2,538,461

3,000,000

0.500

1,269,230

1,500,000

10

200,000

2,572,307

2,772,307

3,000,000

0.463

1,283,578

1,389,000

2,000,000

16,775,372

19,275,372

26,300,000

12,222,425

16,835,800

1

D

500,000


B/C

=

?( G""'#7' (PVB) ?( G""'#( T"( ) (PVC) Bt ∑ t t =1(1 + r) n

=

Ct t t =1(1 + r) n

=

16,835,800 12,222,425

= 1.38

B/C =ก1 1.38 D =Dกก = 1 B%8 =:&@BF8< 1(ก 7 ก D =Dกก = =C!<(=9 %9F4 81137 ก 3(2D D D%D( 

_  NPV " ก? 9: 2 กb"S ' ( ก#' #)( 9: 6 #9R NPV = ?( G""'#7' - ?( G""'#( T"( ) NPV= 16,835,800 - 12,222,425 = 4,613,375


4.3 @1& :&@B?@7 ภ (Internal Rate of Return : IRR) # 7' ภ#  (r) 9:S  ?( G""'# H(NPV) 9( ( ภ#'^?) NPV= â&#x2C6;&#x2018;n Bt â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Ct = 0 t =1 (1 +

r) t

IRR ภb( r #:   ภ# 7' ภ(IRR) 9 (  ภภ( # ภ'9R) ภ?S  #' 9: T  ภ(  ภ9R9ภS  "U  9:" ภS % #  (r) 9:S  ภc9 #: NPV 9 ( ^?)  Tภ (  )p #R  TH9 Interpolation ภ IRR # 9:? ภ "  NPV  ' # 9::S ภ "  NPV 'ŕ¸


?<@%1 ก&

1) ( 9)' #  (  2 ( 9:( ก# กก( 5% c _ ( ก# ก  "S  ก 7c ( ) :" ก  #c#H ( #  ก#' NPV ( "S      2) "S % ( IRR  ก 7'H X กp" ' X#p 'ก (" ( IRR ( ) _ ก  7'H ก กX 'ก#R   ' #R 3) IRR  "9 )(  _ T( ) ก 9ก  c:  " S 7'H ก 9:)" ก'ก '  #" ก#Rก#' 'ก9ก S  กG] ( IRR (  ( 9: "  ก


NPV

r

O IRR 9:9R9 3 (


&1 @9= 8  ภ7 TU:  T  'R  X ภ10,000 '  X9: 2 8,000 '  : 9)( T"( )  ภ7 X9: 3 "S  1,200 '   c:UR ) 8 ภX ภ" ภ#R)#9( 'S  #ภl mU:" : X9: 3 "S  200 '   c: UR ) 5 ภX  ( " : #'7' X9: 3 "S  4,000 '   c:UR ) 10 ภX " # 7' ภ(Internal Rate of Return : IRR) "#9R


45

 

=C!<(=9

=0 

=C!<(=9



ก : &

1ก#

D

1

10,000

0

0

10,000

0

-10,000

0.909

-9,090

0.893

-8,930

2

8,000

0

0

8,000

0

-8,000

0.826

-6,608

0.797

-6,376

3

1,200

200

1,400

4,000

2,600

0.751

1,953

0.712

1,851

4

1,296

210

1,506

4,400

2,894

0.683

1,977

0.636

1,841

5

1,400

221

1,620

4,840

3,220

0.621

2,000

0.567

1,826

6

1,512

232

1,743

5,324

3,581

0.564

2,020

0.507

1,815

7

1,633

243

1,876

5,856

3,981

0.513

2,042

0.452

1,799

8

1,763

255

2,018

6,442

4,424

0.467

2,066

0.404

1,787

9

1,904

268

2,172

7,086

4,914

0.424

2,084

0.361

1,774

10

2,057

281

2,338

7,795

5,457

0.386

2,106

0.322

1,757

12,764

1,910

32,674

45,744

13,070

D

18,000

:

:&@

DF

PV

&@B B%' r =10%

DF

PV

r =12%

548

-856


ก  IRR 789C!< ' Interpolation IRR = @1&  88&1 &0 + :&=  =@1&  8813%@ × NPV ?@@1&  88&1 &0 :&=?@ NPV &D@1&  8813%@ 548 = 10 + (12 q 10) × 548− (−856) = 10 + 2 (548/1,404) = 10 + 2 (0.39) = 10 + 0.78 IRR = 10.78

DG@F8< = IRR B< &<@ @F4 4 9 9ก1@1& 8@ก 39  ก;<?@7 ก (2 (  =%D  G@FD= %DD& =@1& 8@ก 39  ก;<?@7 ก 3

=ก1 8% IRR = 10.78% Dกก = 8% (2% 4F8< =%D C7 ก 3


% 4 ก6_ก &18% C( 1) @1& :&@B Y9 (ARR)  G@@1& :&@B(กก  (ROI) `< ARR ?@7 ก > ARR ก08  ARR ?@7 ก < ARR ก08 FD= ARR ?@7 ก = ARR ก08  G@FD=กXF8< `<&<@ G@ก7 ก 89 &<@ G@ก7 ก  ARR  G@ ROI D =%;%8 2) D; =4b((1%' (NPV) `< NPV > 0  `< NPV < 0 FD= `< NPV = 0  G@FD=กXF8< `<&<@ G@ก7 ก 89 &<@ G@ก7 ก  NPV > 0 BD =%;%8


3) # (7'( (B/C Ratio) _ B/C > 1  _ B/C < 1 ( _ B/C = 1  (กb 4) # 7' ก (IRR) _ IRR > # ก '9R) ก?  _ IRR < # ก '9R) ก? ( _ IRR = # ก '9R) ก?  (กb * 1ก ก6_ก 7 ก 9 DC!<ก1Dก% 8C4b((1 F8<Bก= NPV, B/C, IRR


 #c#H (  ก%&#R  IRR

ก # "

> 0 > 1

> # ก '9R) ก?



< 0 < 1

< # ก '9R) ก?

(

= 0 = 1

= # ก '9R) ก?

 (กb

NPV

B/C


5. ภ  D@=@F ?@7 ภ (Sensitivity Analysis) ภ^Uภl _U  9:)  ( p9: " ภ" ภ  9:)  (( S (7ภ'( 7' ภ)ภ"S ภ^Uภl ภ%9( p (9R 1) ภ%9 c:UR 2) ภ%9 ) #'  3) ภ%9 c:UR  ) #'  (ภ%99: 1 + ภ%99: 2) ภ   ( ภc:?( :_ ภ%   ( T"( ) ) #' 9:)  ภ )ภ%9  ภ9R" )#( 9:" (


b_econ8