SECM Year-in-Review 2024

Year-In-Review Prepared by the Southeast Industrial Capital Markets Advisors

THANK YOU To our partners, clients, friends of the firm, and friends of the team: Thank you for your continued partnership. Thank you for your mentorship and counsel on how we can continue to improve as professionals and as an organization. Thank you for late night cocktails, long days on the golf course, meals filled with jokes, text messages with memes, and plenty of reasons to belly laugh. Thank you for being in the foxhole with us in difficult times. Thank you for your trust. This team would not be what it is without you and our job would not be the same without all the aforementioned memories.

2024 proved to be a year where the tough got tougher. It goes without saying that the world remains imperfect, but elements of normality demonstrated a resurgence after a very volatile 2023. Price discovery, in most markets, is no longer a topic of discussion and concentric circles began to form around pricing expectations. Liquidity on “good assets” proved to be what felt like limitless. Land became a topic of interest again for Sponsors and development capital reappeared for infill locations with appropriate yield profiles.

Conversely, there were plenty of market attributes that did not work in our favor. The bond market continued to be chaotic with the US10YT moving over 100bps topping out at 4.73 on April 25th and bottoming at 3.61 on September 16th before rebounding back up to 4.40 in December. Vacancy rates in nearly every market in the southeast marked 5-year highs. The bulk occupier remained dormant being a drag on absorption statistics.

As we enter 2025, our team is filled with cautious optimism. Agnostic of political opinions, the markets have clarity on which administration will be in office for the next 4 years. Construction deliveries continue to decelerate while absorption meanders along forecasting peak vacancy rates in the foreseeable future allowing for the “worst of times” to be in the rear-view mirror.

Based on BOV activity in Q4, trade volumes are expected to rebound significantly in the first half of 2025.

We look forward to the new memories we will create together in the new year, we look forward to fostering new relationships and deepening those which already exist, and we look forward to being in the fox hole with many of you in 2025.

Ryan Vaught

Jimmy Ullrich

Robyn Hurrell

Mike Macchia

Riley Vaught

SOUTHEAST INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL MARKETS ADVISORS

Ryan Vaught

Executive Vice President

Jimmy Ullrich

Robyn Hurrell, SIOR

Executive Vice President

Mike Macchia Senior Associate

Executive Vice President

Riley Vaught Associate

Financial Analysts

Blanton Hamilton

Brandon Meade

Abby Cronin

Marketing Specialists

Debi Stolberg

Jaclyn Love

Emory Lay

SE CAPITAL MARKETS REACH

Rale Dur Nashville Charlotte Greenville/ Spartanburg

Huntsville

Memphis

Columb Atlanta

Birmingham

Charleston

Savannah Jackson

Mobile

Jacksonville

Orlando

Tampa B

Fort

Richmond

20 KEY MARKETS COVERED

Norfolk

eigh/ rham

bia

Bay

Myers South Florida

With regional coverage throughout the Southeast, our eleven-person team works in conjunction with our local, industrial market leasing brokers to leverage their in-market knowledge and provide a full range of industrial services for our clients. With a focus on delivering exceptional service and strategic guidance, we leverage our local partners and team’s expertise in the following 20 key industrial markets.

Atlanta

Huntsville

Orlando

Birmingham

Jackson

Raleigh/Durham

Charleston

Jacksonville

Richmond

Charlotte

Memphis

Savannah

Columbia

Mobile

South Florida

Fort Myers

Nashville

Tampa Bay

Greenville/Spartanburg

Norfolk

SOUTHEAST REGION MARKET STATS Deliveries (SF) by Market Atlanta Atlanta

8.84M 3.97M

225K Birmingham 26K Birmingham

Charleston Charleston

3.58M 1.35M

Charlotte Charlotte

3.95M 3.68M

253K Columbia 141K Columbia

Greenville ille Spartanburg Spartanburg

5.28M 1.4M 547K 274K

Jacksonville Jacksonville

379K

MARKET

Huntsville Huntsville

2.02M

Memphis 0 Memphis

1.29M

Nashville Nashville

1.34M 1.29M

Norfolk Norfolk

318K 414K

Orlando Orlando

3.53M 815K

Raleigh Raleigh/Durham Durham Richmond Richmond

1.2M 1.04M 290K 200K

Savannah Savannah South South Florida Florida

Tampa Tampa BayBay 0 2023 Q3

4.23M 2.82M 3.18M 526K 2.51M 373K

1M

2M

1

2

2024 Q3

3M

7M

8M

9M

3SQUARE4 FEET BY 5 MILLIONS 6 7

8

9

2023 Q3

4M

2024 Q3

5M

6M

The Southeast Region Market Stats reflect broader trends in industrial real estate shaped by economic and market challenges. Deliveries and construction activity have slowed between 2023 Q3 and 2024 Q3, which can be attributed to rising costs of debt and the difficulty in securing equity, leading developers to delay or scale back new projects. Despite these challenges, markets like Atlanta and Raleigh/Durham continue to see significant activity, fueled by strong demand for regional distribution hubs. Absorption rates, however, have softened across the board, driven by tenant hesitation in committing to new leases amidst broader economic uncertainty, including factors like rising interest rates and the election.

Weighted average rents remain stable or increasing in most markets, reflecting the underlying value of well-located industrial space, even as overall leasing activity slows. These trends underscore a cautious yet resilient market, where tenant demand and investor activity are tempered by economic headwinds.

Under Construction (SF)

Absorption YTD (SF)

Under Construction as a % of Inventory

Weighted Avg Rent (NNN)

Market

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

Atlanta

32,034,578

19,266,014

6,500,507

6,873,013

3.8%

2.2%

$8.46

$10.17

Birmingham

996,985

931,000

(1,198,841)

(652,156)

0.7%

0.6%

$6.28

$6.93

Charleston

6,942,721

3,293,506

4,530,134

(2,134,051)

9.7%

4.2%

$7.84

$8.07

Charlotte

16,775,638

5,603,901

3,820,125

1,075,247

4.7%

1.4%

$8.65

$9.56

Columbia

1,748,932

1,692,292

2,360,594

(140,277)

2.3%

2.2%

$5.30

$4.92

Greenville Spartanburg

9,555,536

4,395,991

4,743,642

(598,592)

4.0%

1.8%

$5.34

$5.96

Huntsville

1,325,062

582,500

740,972

2,012,017

3.0%

1.2%

$7.21

$8.64

Jacksonville

1,741,415

4,071,942

1,440,128

2,563,498

1.3%

2.5%

$8.86

$10.59

Memphis

1,468,565

470,890

4,638,950

(688,061)

0.5%

0.2%

$4.58

$5.25

Nashville

4,667,059

5,473,457

2,033,143

1,846,894

2.1%

2.4%

$9.15

$9.96

Norfolk

9,121,456

6,419,557

1,190,370

(1,080,298)

10.7%

7.3%

$8.41

$9.22

Orlando

14,238,383

4,503,576

3,664,072

521,627

7.8%

2.3%

$8.70

$12.40

Raleigh/ Durham

6,472,123

4,861,951

1,557,120

2,859,165

9.1%

5.5%

$11.30

$10.10

Richmond

6,312,754

3,703,568

3,104,257

414,594

5.4%

3.1%

$7.31

$8.12

Savannah

16,276,841

11,321,666

9,943,043

8,108,512

14.2%

8.2%

$7.07

$7.77

South Florida

11,905,519

6,237,263

(1,190,376)

603,116

2.9%

1.5%

$16.81

$16.79

Tampa Bay

4,589,139

4,994,707

7,193,426

1,309,716

1.5%

1.7%

$11.48

$11.39

Sum

146,172,706

87,823,781

55,071,266 22,893,964

-

-

Min

996,985

470,890

(1,198,841) (2,134,051)

0.5%

0.2%

$4.58

$4.92

Max

32,034,578

19,266,014

9,943,043

8,108,512

14.2%

8.2%

$16.81

$16.79

Avg

8,598,394

5,166,105

3,239,486

1,346,704

4.9%

2.8%

$8.40

$9.93

QUARTERLY VACANCY RATE & NET ABSORPTION •

•

•

•

Vacancy Rates: The average vacancy rate increased from 5.28% in 2023 Q3 to 7.45% in 2024 Q3, with Charleston experiencing the highest rise (from 7.72% to 19.39%). Norfolk maintained the lowest vacancy rate at 3.98% in 2024 Q3.

Net Absorption (Square Feet): On an annualized basis, net absorption decreased significantly from approximately 63.1 million SF in 2023 to 31.6 million SF in 2024. Atlanta had the most positive annualized absorption, with 16.7 million SF in 2023 and 5.9 million SF in 2024.

Net Absorption as % of Inventory: The average net absorption as a percentage of inventory dropped from 2.72% in 2023 to 0.60% in 2024. Savannah recorded the highest percentages in both periods, with 12.52% in 2023 and 3.44% in 2024.

Positive Net Absorption: In 2023, 12 out of 16 markets saw positive annualized net absorption, contributing a total of 63.1 million SF. By 2024, this decreased to 11 markets with positive absorption, contributing a total of 31.6 million SF. Vacancy Rate

Net Absorption (SF)

Net Absorption as % Inventory

Market

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

Atlanta

5.30%

8.20%

4,182,974

1,481,545

0.49%

0.17%

Birmingham

5.11%

6.15%

(400,471)

(333,447)

(0.28%)

(0.23%)

Charleston

7.72%

19.39%

2,320,294

(1,424,749)

3.23%

(1.81%)

Charlotte

5.01%

7.67%

1,334,197

423,800

0.37%

0.11%

Columbia

3.52%

4.69%

305,483

214,046

0.41%

0.28%

Greenville Spartanburg

9.32%

11.06%

(297,793)

944,413

(0.12%)

0.38%

Huntsville

8.40%

9.82%

708,055

(348,180)

1.60%

(0.73%)

Jacksonville

3.74%

4.40%

1,323,258

1,719,725

0.99%

1.05%

Memphis

7.52%

7.69%

1,490,264

599,298

0.50%

0.20%

Nashville

4.24%

4.25%

874,789

1,209,712

0.40%

0.54%

Norfolk

1.88%

3.98%

276,061

(165,959)

0.32%

(0.19%)

Orlando

4.55%

7.00%

889,047

201,739

0.48%

0.10%

Raleigh/Durham

7.50%

7.34%

420,640

1,290,410

0.59%

1.46%

Richmond

3.10%

4.47%

(501,921)

329,005

(0.43%)

0.27%

Savannah

4.26%

9.25%

3,598,567

868,282

3.13%

0.63%

South Florida

3.51%

5.13%

(2,036,970)

(300,195)

(0.50%)

(0.07%)

Tampa Bay

4.99%

6.10%

1,283,568

1,193,824

0.43%

0.40%

Sum

-

-

15,770,042

7,903,269

Min

1.88%

3.98%

(2,036,970)

(1,424,749)

(0.50%)

(1.81%)

Max

9.32%

19.39%

4,182,974

1,719,725

3.23%

1.46%

Avg

5.28%

7.45%

927,650

464,898

0.68%

0.15%

QUARTERLY VACANCY RATE CHANGE 2024 Q3 Vacancy Rate & Net Absorption (SF) 22.00% 20% 20.00%

7.5M 7,500,000

18.00%

20.00%

16% 16.00%

18.00%

14.00%

16.00%

3,500,000 3.5M

12.00% 12%

14.00%

10.00% 12.00%

1,500,000 1.5M

10.00% 8.00%

-500,000 (500K)

4.00% 2%

4.00%

2.00%

At la Bi rm nta in gh am Ch ar le st on Ch ar Gr lo ee tt nv e Co ill lu e m Sp bi ar a ta nb ur H g un ts vi Ja lle ck so nv ill e M em ph is N as hv ill e N or fo lk O Ra r la le nd ig h o D ur ha m Ri ch m on Sa d va nn So ah ut h Fl or id Ta a m pa Ba y

0.00%

MARKET

Net Absorption (SF)

Vacancy RateNet Absorption (SF)

Vacancy Rate

6.00%

6.00%

2.00%

-2,500,000 (2.5M)

8.00% 8%

0.00% 0%

VACANCY RATE

SQUARE FEET BY MILLIONS

5.5M 5,500,000

22.00%

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL CAP RATE MAP 5.30% - 5.70% Nashville 5.80% - 6.20% Memphis

5.90% - 6.30% Birmingham

5.25% - 5.65% Atlanta

5.90% - 6.30% Mobile

5.40% - 5.80% Richmond 5.80% - 6.20% Norfolk

5.85% - 6.25% GSP 5.90% - 6.30% Huntsville

4.80% - 5.20% Raleigh-Durham

5.50% - 5.90% Charlotte

5.90% - 6.30% Columbia

5.50% - 5.90% Charleston 5.65% - 5.95% Savannah

5.65% - 5.95% Jacksonville

5.20% - 5.60% Orlando 5.20% - 5.60% Tampa Bay 5.80% - 6.20% Fort Myers

4.80% - 5.20% South FL

SOUTHEAST REGION NOTABLE EVENTS Labor Disruptions (e.g., Port Strikes)

Potential Impact: Strikes at major U.S. ports can disrupt global supply chains, delaying goods distribution and increasing transportation costs. These disruptions could lead businesses to shift toward inland distribution hubs or invest in supply chain efficiencies.

Industrial Sector Implications: Demand for warehouses near alternative ports or intermodal hubs could increase. Companies may also stockpile inventory, requiring additional storage capacity.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Savannah, Charleston, Mobile.

Opportunities: Speculative development near alternative ports or intermodal hubs.

2024 U.S. Election Outcomes

Potential Impact: Policy changes in areas such as taxation, corporate incentives, and environmental regulations could affect industrial growth. For example: a shift toward stricter environmental regulations may increase costs for developers but drive green retrofits. Tax incentives for domestic manufacturing could boost demand for production facilities.

Industrial Sector Implications: Markets tied to industries like manufacturing, renewable energy, and EV production may see increased activity. Areas with favorable tax environments could attract industrial investments.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Texas (if we extend to Gulf region), North Carolina, Georgia.

Opportunities: Monitor new policy developments and state incentives to identify potential growth corridors.

Onshoring and Nearshoring Trends

Potential Impact: Companies are prioritizing domestic production to mitigate risks from global disruptions (e.g., geopolitical conflicts, pandemics). Nearshoring to Mexico and other close trade partners could further drive cross-border logistics.

Industrial Sector Implications: Increased demand for manufacturing facilities and distribution centers within the U.S., especially in regions with strong transportation infrastructure.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina.

Opportunities: Invest in secondary markets like Chattanooga or Greenville, SC, which are attracting manufacturers with lower costs, and focus on properties suitable for light manufacturing and distribution.

Trade and Tariff Changes

Potential Impact: Tariff policy shifts could impact the cost of imports/exports, leading businesses to rethink supply chain strategies. For example, higher tariffs on Chinese goods could boost domestic manufacturing.

Industrial Sector Implications: Changes in trade policy might lead to increased demand for industrial properties tied to export markets or inland manufacturing hubs.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Ports and inland hubs like Atlanta and Memphis.

Opportunities: Position investments around regions benefiting from increased manufacturing or redirected imports.

E-commerce Growth and Logistics Evolution

Potential Impact: The rapid expansion of e-commerce is driving demand for “last-mile” logistics facilities near urban

areas to fulfill faster delivery times.

Industrial Sector Implications: Strong demand for small-to-mid-sized warehouses closer to consumers; increased investment in tech-enabled facilities like automated distribution centers; regional secondary and tertiary markets could see growth in demand for mid-sized fulfillment centers.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Miami.

Opportunities: Focus on “last-mile” properties and modern warehouse facilities in urban or suburban areas with strong population growth.

Infrastructure Investments

Potential Impact: Federal or state-funded infrastructure projects (e.g., highways, rail lines, bridges) could improve transportation efficiency and unlock new areas for industrial development.

Industrial Sector Implications: Expansion of industrial corridors and reduced transit times, and increased land value in areas benefiting from new or improved infrastructure.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Tennessee (Nashville’s infrastructure expansion), Georgia, Alabama.

Opportunities: Identify land near planned infrastructure projects and explore smaller markets connected by improved rail or highway systems.

Sustainability and Green Initiatives

Potential Impact: Increasing pressure from governments and investors to adopt sustainable practices could lead to higher costs for non-compliant facilities while incentivizing green building retrofits and new construction.

Industrial Sector Implications: Demand for LEED-certified and energy-efficient facilities, higher adoption of solar power, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and other green technologies in industrial parks, markets with stringent environmental regulations (e.g., California) may see slower development, while others may attract growth with incentives for sustainability.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina.

Opportunities: Invest in properties with sustainability certifications (LEED, WELL) or the potential to upgrade to meet environmental standards.

Technological Advancements

Potential Impact: Technologies like automation, robotics, and AI in industrial processes are becoming critical for efficiency

and cost savings.

Industrial Sector Implications: High-tech distribution centers requiring advanced power and infrastructure will increase in demand; older facilities with low clear heights or insufficient utilities may face obsolescence; emerging markets for industrial properties could include regions investing in tech-forward ecosystems.

Key Southeast Markets Impacted: Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte.

Opportunities: Target Class A properties or retrofit Class B/C properties with high ceilings and updated infrastructure and monitor opportunities in tech-centric hubs with a growing logistics footprint.

SOUTHEAST REGION NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS Amazon Robotics Fulfillment Center 2520 Bellevue Ave, Daytona Beach, FL 32114

HIGHEST PRICE AND USER PURCHASE

Market Year Built RBA (SF) Occupancy Key Tenants WALT Cap Rate Sale Price Price/SF Closing Seller Buyer

FL - South Florida 2024 2,800,000 0% N/A Vacant User Purchase $393,877,200 $141 2024 Q4 Hillwood Development Corporation Amazon

Rock Lake Business Center - Building B & D 3150 NW 33rd St, Pompano Beach, FL 33069

HIGHEST PRICE PSF

Market Year Built RBA (SF) Occupancy Key Tenants WALT Cap Rate Sale Price Price/SF Closing Seller Buyer

FL - South Florida 2019 255,860 100% Amazon, USPS 13.0 4.80% $100,150,000 $391 2024 Q2 IDI Logistics Tishman Speyer

3141 10th St SW 3141 10th St SW, Pompano Beach, FL 33069

LOWEST CAP RATE (FULLY STABILIZED)

Market Year Built RBA (SF) Occupancy Key Tenants WALT Cap Rate Sale Price Price/SF Closing Seller Buyer

FL: South Florida 2001 93,873 100% The Shade Room 4.3 4.34% $20,700,000 $221 2024 Q2 Elion Partners Link Logistics

Cardinal Commerce Center 10399 Washington Hwy, Glen Allen, VA 23059

HIGHEST PRICE COLD STORAGE SALE

Market Year Built RBA (SF) Occupancy Key Tenants WALT Cap Rate Sale Price Price/SF Closing Seller Buyer

VA: Richmond 2023 328,335 100% Performance Food Group 20.0 6.15% $85,400,000 $260 2024 Q2 Scannell Properties Eaton Vance

2024 NOTABLE PORTFOLIO TRANSACTIONS KINGS MOUNTAIN / LINCOLNTON PORTFOLIO Market(s): Buildings: Total SF: Price: Price/SF: Date: Buyer: Seller:

Charlotte, NC 9 1,460,046 $124,000,000 $85 2024 Q1 Equus Investcorp

INVESTCORP MEMPHIS PORTFOLIO Market(s): Buildings: Total SF: Price: Price/SF: Date: Buyer: Seller:

Memphis, TN 14 1,595,099 SF $100,500,000 $63 2024 Q3 Plymouth Industrial REIT Investcorp

SUNBELT LOGISTICS PORTFOLIO Market(s): Buildings: Total SF: Price: Price/SF: Date: Buyer: Seller:

South Florida, FL | Atlanta,GA 3 1,772,145 SF $160,000,000 $90 2024 Q3 Northwood Investors UBS Realty Advisors

DOGWOOD SOUTHEAST INFILL PORTFOLIO Market(s): Buildings: Total SF: Price: Price/SF: Date: Buyer: Seller:

Atlanta, GA | Nashville, TN | Raleigh, NC 24 1,917,240 $253,750,000 $132 2024 Q3 Stoltz Real Estate Partners Dogwood Industrial

BLACKSTONE SOUTH FLORIDA INDUSTRIAL PORTFOLIO Market(s): Buildings: Total SF: Price: Price/SF: Date: Buyer: Seller:

South Florida, FL 26 1,400,000 $331,300,000 $237 2024 Q4 Longpoint Partners Blackstone

CHILDRESS KLEIN CAROLINAS PORTFOLIO Market(s): Buildings: Total SF: Price: Price/SF: Date: Buyer: Seller:

Charlotte, NC | Charleston, SC 21 4,300,000 $575,000,000 $134 2024 Q4 INDUS Realty Trust Childress Klein

MOST ACTIVE SOUTHEAST CAPITAL Acquisitions by Total Deal Volume

Dispositions by Total Deal Volume

SOUTHEAST REGION 2024 TRENDS The past year may best be categorized as the “Flight to Quality” (FTQ) for both capital and occupiers. FTQ was most tangibly seen within our team on bid lists when comparing and contrasting “In market” deals versus “out of market deals”; said differently, inside the beltline versus next-exit locations. For our “in market” deals, bid lists averaged 187 CA’s executed and 23 bids; conversely, “out of market” or “next exit” locations averaged 78 CA’s executed and 4 bids. From a speculative development capitalization standpoint, FTQ was also very apparent. Capital demonstrated a quick propensity to decline participation if everything about a contemplated development was not perfect. Variables on the development to be scrutinized were items such as: site plans with adequate trailer drops, site plans with multiple points of ingress & egress, proforma’s carrying market standard contingencies, justifiable underwritten rents and tenant improvement allowances, micro location of proposed development, and historical experience of the Sponsor within the specific proposed marketplace.

In Market vs Out of Market Deals

From a sentiment standpoint, the propensity of capital willing to entertain longer WALT deals (defined as +7.0 years) seemed to increase in 2024 when contrasting against the sentiment in 2023. However, the data did not substantiate the sentiment to the degree we would have expected, as displayed in the table below. A significant change throughout the market was the threshold with which capital would stomach negative leverage. Our commentary in 2023 was that “aggressive capital was willing to stomach negative leverage until the end of year 4 while conservative capital needed to achieve positive leverage by the end of year 2. 2024 demonstrated a tangible shift in that perspective as we completed an analysis on the stabilized yield on cost (SYOC) for core-plus deals with an average outcome of waiting until year 6 to achieve a 6.50% SYOC. Shift in Deal Profile Liquidity

Year

# of Deals

2023

34

2024

40

Percent Change (YoY)

Total Dollar Volume

Percent Change (YoY)

$2.11B 17.60%

$2.26B

6.90%

As is typical during election years, decision making slowed amongst both capital groups and occupiers, as decision makers for both respective parties were hesitant during election season. For example, there were nearly 16% less deals closed in September and October when compared to the time period of July and August. As a result of the election, the apprehension to move forward with decision making has slowed but shifted to discussions on the impact of tariffs on port markets throughout the region. As we look forward to 2025, we expect the trepidation to remain for the first couple months of 2025 as the market experiences the impact of the new administration and then for all fears to be eliminated, concluding with a return to normal decision making timelines.

Presidential Election

As absorption slowed in 2024 and less buildings reached stabilization, Sponsors achieved monetization through non-stabilized sales. Most specifically, the amount of trades involving Users as the purchasing entity rose significantly. When comparing and contrasting 2024 to 2023, the nominal number of User purchases increased 114%, year-over-year. Moreover, in 2024, User purchases accounted for 68.1% of all vacant transactions where in 2023 it was only 43.8%.

Vacant Building Purchases

2023

2024

YoY Change

Total Vacant Sales

48

66

37.5%

Spec Forwards

20

5

-75%

User Purchases

21

45

114%

Vacant Purchases

7

16

128%

2025 INVESTOR OUTLOOK SURVEY As 2024 comes to a close amidst a volatile capital markets environment, our team surveyed clients to gather their outlook for 2025. The survey responses provide valuable insights into market expectations, including cap rates, stabilized yield requirements, rent growth, and other key metrics. This information offers a clearer picture of what the market anticipates for the coming year and how individual mandates align with the broader competitive landscape.

KEY TAKEAWAYS: • Most respondents (54.5%) plan to be net buyers in 2025.

• The majority expect Fed Funds Rates to be in the 350-375 bps range.

• Industrial asset class fundamentals are the biggest concern (52.7% of responses).

• Most respondents (41.8%) expect modest sales volume growth of 5-10% compared to 2024.

• Core cap rates are expected to stabilize around 5.5% by most respondents.

• A majority of respondents (51%) expect between 10-15% more allocations for industrial in 2025.

TARGET MARKETS DEPLOYING CAPITAL Respondents identified several key markets across the Southeast, including Tampa, Orlando, Charlotte, and Jacksonville, as prime areas for capital deployment. Florida and the Carolinas stood out, with every investor highlighting these states as top priorities.

Target Markets To Deploy Capital In 2025

60

% of Respondents

50 40 30 20 10

Ta m pa

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0

FED FUND RATES The majority of respondents (40%) expected the Federal Funds Rate to be between 350-375 basis points. This suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook on interest rate stabilization. The responses indicate a consensus around mid-level rates for the coming period.

NET BUYER OR SELLER Over half of the respondents (54.5%) identified as net buyers, indicating a strong appetite for acquisitions. This suggests optimism in the market and confidence in future returns. A minority of participants expected to be net sellers, reflecting strategic repositioning.

SE CORE CAP RATES The most common expectation for core cap rates in the Southeast was 5.5%, cited by 43.6% of participants. This aligns with relatively stable cap rate forecasts amidst market uncertainty. The data reflects a shared view of moderate yield expectations.

EXPECTED ALLOCATIONS A majority of respondents (51%) expect their allocations for industrial investments to increase by 10-15% in 2025, reflecting growing confidence in the sector. Meanwhile, 42% anticipated no change in their allocations for the year, indicating a cautious approach among a significant minority. Overall, the data highlights optimism about industrial investments.

SE MARKETS WITH HIGHEST RENT GROWTH The South Florida market was recognized as having the highest rents, capturing 21.28% of responses. This highlights the region’s strong rental demand and pricing power. Other markets like Tampa, Charlotte, Nashville and Jacksonville received notable mentions.

EXPECTED RENT GROWTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST The anticipated rent growth range of 2%-4% was the most frequently cited, at 41.8%.

Respondents appear to expect steady, moderate rent increases. This outlook reflects confidence in market fundamentals despite potential headwinds.

Highest Rent Growth Markets For Next 5 Years 0.25

% of Respondents

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

O th er

O rla nd o Ri ch m on d Ch ar le st on Sa va nn ah Bi rm in gh am

At la Ra nt le a ig h D ur ha m

Ch ar lo tt e N as hv ill e Ja ck so nv ill e

Ba y

Ta m pa

So ut h

Fl or id a

0

2025 INVESTOR OUTLOOK SURVEY STABILIZED YOC EXPECTATIONS The most common expectation for stabilized yield on cost was 6.75%-7%, chosen by 38.2% of participants. This indicates a shared benchmark for acceptable returns on investment.

EXIT CAPS IN 2025 For exit cap rates in 2025, 43.6% of respondents expected them to settle at 5.5%. This suggests a general consensus on a stable exit environment. Respondents seem to anticipate minimal cap rate compression or expansion.

SPEC DEVELOPMENT MINIMUM YOC A minimum yield on cost of 7% for speculative developments was the most common response (41.8%). This highlights conservative underwriting standards amidst uncertain market conditions.

The response indicates a focus on risk mitigation in speculative investments.

LARGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT Debt capital was the most commonly identified problem of the capital stack, cited by 34.5% of respondents. This suggests a continued reliance on debt financing despite changing interest rate dynamics. Equity and mezzanine financing also received notable mentions.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR 2025 Respondents overwhelmingly (52.7%) identified negative absorption and plateauing rents in the industrial asset class as their primary concern. This indicates worries about demand-supply imbalances in this traditionally strong sector. Other concerns, such as macroeconomic factors, were secondary.

POINT OF HIGHEST OPTIMISM FOR 2025 Nearly half of the respondents (47.3%) expressed optimism about vacancy rate contraction due to reduced construction starts in 2024. This suggests confidence in the absorption of existing inventory. Optimism in rent growth and fundamentals was also present but less pronounced.

SOUTHEAST TOTAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS The expected construction starts for 2025 were predominantly estimated at 80-100 million square feet, chosen by 32.7%. This points to moderate development activity levels in the coming year. Respondents seem to anticipate a cautious pace of new supply.

Expected Total Construction Starts In 2025 35 30

% of Respondents

25 20 15 10 5 0 80-100 MSF

100-125 MSF

125-150 MSF

Other

SOUTHEAST TOTAL SALES VOLUME The most common expectation was a 5%-10% increase in sales volume compared to 2024, cited by 41.8%. This reflects a positive sentiment toward transaction activity. The data suggests optimism for liquidity in the market.

Total Sales Volume Change In 2025 Compared To 2024

10%-20% less volume than 2024

% of Respondents

5%-10% less volume than 2024

Same volume as 2024

10%-20% more volume than 2024

5%-10% more volume than 2024

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2025 SECM PREDICTIONS OCCUPIER FUNDAMENTALS BOTTOM, BUT REBOUND QUICKLY Average vacancy rates across the Southeast have risen steadily each quarter since the start of 2023, increasing from 4.11% to 7.45%. This trend has been driven by a surge in the delivery of bulk industrial product and a slowdown in bulk leasing activity. While bulk leasing activity is beginning to recover, vacancy rates are expected to peak in the first half of 2025 before stabilizing as market dynamics improve. Currently, there are roughly 12 deals in the Southeast for spaces exceeding 500,000 SF that are in lease negotiations or better—a notable increase compared to recent quarters. As these deals finalize and the bulk leasing market regains momentum, the disproportionate impact of vacant bulk product on overall vacancy rates will gradually lessen. In Charlotte, for example, the warehouse vacancy rate as of Q3 2023 is 7.92%, representing over 28 million SF of available space. However, nearly 9 million SF of this vacant space consists of warehouses larger than 400,000 SF. Excluding these large vacancies would reduce available space to under 20 million SF, bringing the total vacancy rate to below 5%.

Despite the current upward pressure on vacancy rates, stronger bulk leasing activity and positive net absorption are expected to create more balanced market conditions later in the year, following the anticipated peak in the first half of 2025.

SCARCITY PREMIUM IS REMOVED The trailing 33 months (since 4/1/22 – our date for when the world changed) has provided a capital environment market where the volume of “quality” deals has been extremely limited. This has been supported by the data on total transaction volume, specifically in the years of 2023 and 2024, along with general emotional sentiment. With depressed volumes of quality product, we believe that a “scarcity premium” has existed for the best assets that did come to market. As we turn the calendar page into 2025, we expect the scarcity premium to be removed from the marketplace and an avalanche of opportunities to flood the market in 1H2025. The net result of this is expected to be a wider spread in pricing on bid lists, potentially shorter sales processes (due to capital dropping out in later rounds as capital will have the opportunity to move onto the next best offering), and less outlier prints than were experienced in the last 33 months.

NON-HOMOGENEOUS YIELD PROFILES REMAIN During the Covid-boom era (2020-2022), the majority of the Southeast was pricing homogeneously at ±3.75%. During the years of 2023 and 2024, a large amount of those two years was encompassed with price discovery. As we enter 2025, we are largely through the price discovery phase of the cycle and have clarity on the different “tiers” of pricing throughout the region. Unequivocally, we will not see homogeneous pricing across markets in 2025. To the contrary, there now exists a 130-150 bps spread between the most desirable submarkets within markets compared to the lesser desirable areas of the region.

IMPACT OF TARIFF RHETORIC IS OVERBLOWN Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have sparked widespread debate since election day. The consensus is that these tariffs could harm American workers, increase the trade deficit, and reduce real incomes nationwide. While those concerns may hold true, there are also potential tailwinds for the industrial sector that could benefit our industry. High tariffs on Chinese goods may force foreign manufacturers to relocate, likely shifting operations to India. As manufacturing moves westward out of China, East Coast ports are positioned to benefit significantly. Ports in the Southeast, such as the Port of Virginia, Port of Charleston, and Port of Savannah, are particularly well-situated to gain from this transition to Southwest Asia.

Additionally, tariffs have the potential to strengthen the American manufacturing base by leveling the playing field and preventing foreign companies from dumping inexpensive goods into the U.S. and undercutting domestic producers. As the American manufacturing base expands, markets in the Southeast, including Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, and Huntsville, are likely to see notable growth.

NEW NORMAL: OVER $200/SF The argument regarding what is an acceptable basis is likely to rear its ugly head once again as the market recalibrates to what is accepted as the “new norm”. For traditional light industrial product, it is our team’s expectation that $200-$250/SF becomes the “new norm” for stabilized basis in the majority of markets throughout the region. This is largely just a component of math as the majority of markets are now well into the double digits from a rent standpoint on infill +/50,000 SF deals. Key takeaway here is that sellers should always evaluate a next buyer analysis but that a recalibration of acceptable exit prices needs to increase. Moreover, absent of volatility on pricing of construction related materials, this will also have upward pricing pressure on land costs for sophisticated land sellers.

FLIGHT TO QUALITY Our team’s direct experience in 2024 was that there was a massive bifurcation in the quantity/ quality of bids correlated with the quality of the offering. Quality of assets can encompass a multitude of factors such as i) vintage, ii) market, iii) submarket, iv) credit profile of occupier(s), v) site plan design. To be more specific, quality offers (defined as a location inside the beltline, acceptable credit profile and/or credit enhancements, market conforming lease structure(s)) experienced an average of 187 confidentiality agreements executed and an average of twentytwo (22) bids on the first round. Conversely, lesser quality offerings (defined as being outside of the beltline or in a “next exit” location, no credit enhancements for non-investment grade occupiers, site plans without current market conforming features such as trailer drops and multiple points of ingress/egress) suffered greatly; averages for lesser quality offerings averaged seventy-seven (77) confidentiality agreements executed and six (6) bids on the first round.

Looking forward to 2025, we expect capital to remain focused on quality and the above trends to continue.

2024 NOTABLE NEW LEASES #

Project Name

Market

Tenant

Size (SF)

Date

1

Upstate Corporate Park Building 1

SC: GreenvilleSpartanburg

GXO

1,189,440

2024 Q4

2

Interstate Crossroads Logistics Center

FL: Fort Piece

Broadrange Logistics

1,013,833

2024 Q2

3

The Cubes at River Park Building 4

GA: Atlanta

Greenbox Systems

1,006,500

2024 Q4

4

Busch Commerce Center

GA: Atlanta

Q Cells

825,000

2024 Q1

5

Saddle Creek Distribution Center

FL: Polk County

Walmart

814,500

2024 Q2

6

Georgia International Trade Center

GA: Savannah

Armstrong Logistics

733,821

2024 Q1

7

Beltway Logistics Center

GA: Savannah

GigaCloud

655,370

2024 Q1

8

Lincoln Commerce Center

NC: Charlotte

Green New Energy

534,087

2024 Q3

9

First Rockdale IV

TN: Nashville

Schneider Electric

500,240

2024 Q1

10 10

Ashton Logistics Park Building 1

VA: Richmond

TradeMango Solutions US, Inc.

437,657

2024 Q3

11 11

Imeson Industrial Park

FL: Jacksonville

Arcadia Cold

333,725

2024 Q3

12

Southpark Distribution Center

TN: Memphis

Crown Packaging

314,000

2024 Q3

13 13

9603 Kellner Rd

AL: Alabama

BASF

300,000

2024 Q1

14 14

Buckhorn Industrial Park II Building 3

NC: Raleigh

Stihl Incorporated

265,200

2024 Q2

15

Coastal Logistics Center

VA: Norfolk

ESKA

203,580

2024 Q2

2024 TOP LEASING TRENDS Bulk Leasing Activity New Leases > 500K SF Date

Count

Total SF

Q1 2024

5

3,214,431

Q2 2024

4

3,187,251

Q3 2024

1

534,087

Q4 2024 (QTD)

2

2,195,940

TOTAL (YTD)

12

9,131,709

Southeast Bulk Leasing Metrics Average SF Signed

760,976

Average Rate

$6.53

Average Term

102

Average Bump

3.43%

Southeast Non-Bulk (<500KSF) Leasing Metrics Average SF Signed

135,809

Average Rate

$9.12

Average Term

82

Average Bump

3.75%

Breakdown of New Leases >500K SF in 2024

14% 14%

27% 27%

3PL

Manufacturing

58% 58%

Distribution & Warehouse

Class A vs Class B Vacancy Southeast Class A vs. Class B Vacancy Rate 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2024

Class A Vacancy

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024 (YTD)

Class B Vacancy

Southeast Class A vs. Class B Rental Rates $9.50 $9.00 $8.50 $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2024

Class A Rent

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Class B Rent

Q3 2024

Q4 2024 (YTD)

2024 SECM TRANSACTION SAMPLING EASTPORT LOGISTICS CENTER

Jacksonville, FL

1,738,880 SF

±$120,000,000 TPC

DUNDAS INDUSTRIAL PARK

Jacksonville, FL

138,000 SF

$24,800,000

POLYWOOD CAMPUS

Roxboro, NC

930,256 SF

$61,800,000

CAPITAL CIRCLE COMMERCE PARK

Tallahassee, FL

181,105 SF

$17,500,000

WESTLAKE INDUSTRIAL PARK

Jacksonville, FL

529,780 SF

±$60,000,000 TPC

FORTUNE #2 E-COMMERCE

Florence, SC

117,180 SF

$15,700,000

PALM BEACH SHALLOW BAY PORTFOLIO

South Florida

200,146 SF

$38,985,000

CENTRAL FLORIDA INDUSTRIAL PORTFOLIO

Tampa/Orlando, FL

67,420 SF

$12,800,000

2024 SECM ACTIVE DEALS Current Opportunities

SAVANNAH LOGISTICS PARK Savannah, GA

975,680 SF

SYPHRIT INDUSTRIAL PARK Spartanburg, SC

851,734 SF

Offering Memorandum

CLAYTON COMMERCE CENTER CONTINENTAL AEROSPACE Raleigh, NC 382,880 SF Mobile, AL 261,250 SF TRAFFIC CONTROL DEVICES MULTI-MARKET PORTFOLIO

242 N. Westmonte Dr., Altamonte Springs, FL 32714

5 Properties Located in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina 81,522 Total SF 100% Leased

TCD PORTFOLIO

STETTNER LOGISTICS CENTER

710 Long Meadow Dr., Salisbury, NC 28146

TX, FL, NC

81,522 SF

Lakeland, FL

112.64 AC

501 DENIM WAY Canton, MS

DEERWOOD INDUSTRIAL PORTFOLIO

Offering Memorandum

Hungryroot Tri-Temp Facility 790,015 SF Jacksonville, FL Thompson Road, Hiram, GA 30141

507,590 SF

99,750 SF Class A Cold Storage Facility | 100% Occupied | 10-Year Lease | Strategically Located in the Atlanta MSA

HERITAGE BUSINESS CENTER Lakeland, FL

137,500 SF

HUNGRYROOT TRI-TEMP Atlanta, GA

±100,000 SF

2024 SECM ACTIVE DEALS Coming Soon

VERTIV DISTRIBUTION CENTER Spartanburg, SC

±400,000 SF

CONFIDENTIAL F50 DISTRIBUTION CENTER Nashville, TN

11801 INDUSTRY DRIVE Jacksonville, FL

255,000 SF

CONFIDENTIAL Jacksonville, FL

±300,000 SF

HURST DRIVE Charlotte, NC

±220,000 SF

BANNER BUSINESS PARK ±200,000 SF

Ocala, FL

84,217 SF

Awarded/Pending Closing

JAX AIRPORT LOGISTICS CENTER

PINELLAS FIVE Tampa Bay, FL

471,000 SF

DAVENPORT LOGISTICS CENTER Orlando, FL

18.63 AC

Jacksonville, FL

425,000 SF

2024 SECM NOTABLE EVENTS Client Appreciation Annually, our team hosts a Client Appreciation Event, with the aim of furthering our existing relationships with clientele both from a business and personal perspective. A two-day event, this provides our team the opportunity to thank our trusted clients, while also introducing them to like-minded teams and individuals across the nation and fostering collaboration. Just as we pride ourselves on our white-glove service to our clients daily, we pride ourselves just as much in fostering meaningful relationships outside of the office.

This year, we kicked off our outstanding event with an in-shore fishing tournament, splitting up into teams of 4 with the aim of catching the largest Trout, Redfish, or Snook. The event was a smashing success with boat Captain Matt, Cantey Heath, Chris Lipscomb, Brandon Meade and Blanton Hamilton taking home the grand prize. Following our fishing expedition, we headed to St. Pete Pier for cocktail hour before making our way to Rococo’s Steakhouse for dinner. To conclude our evening, the team toasted our most trusted clients over some great steak and fantastic wine.

We continue to thank our clients for your continued trust and business in this ever-changing environment, and we look forward to continuing to work together into 2025 and beyond. See you at next years event!

Industrial Summit In the last week of April, our team hosted the fourth annual Industrial Summit. This one-and-a-half-day event is intended to foster and deepen relationships between our Colliers industrial brokers and the active ownership groups and developers in the region. Wednesday kicked off the conference with a golf tournament at Lake Jovita Golf Course, which was followed by a 100+ dinner at the rooftop of the Grand Hyatt, overlooking the Tampa skyline and Tampa Bay. The following day concluded the conference with a networking breakfast and forum moderated by Ryan Vaught.

Sponsors Included

THANK YOU TO OUR 2024 TRANSACTIONAL PARTNERS

Southeast Capital Markets Ryan Vaught

Jimmy Ullrich

Mike Macchia

Riley Vaught

Executive Vice President +1 256 656 7215 ryan.vaught@colliers.com

Executive Vice President +1 850 294 3636 jimmy.ullrich@colliers.com

Senior Associate +1 631 626 5377 michael.macchia@colliers.com

Robyn Hurrell

Executive Vice President +1 813 226 7540 robyn.hurrell@colliers.com

Associate +1 248 214 8853 riley.vaught@colliers.com

Support Team Blanton Hamilton

Brandon Meade

Abby Cronin

Debi Stolberg

Jaclyn Love

Emory Lay

Analyst +1 704 409 2919 blanton.hamilton@coliers.com

Analyst +1 813 467 7654 brandon.meade@colliers.com

Senior Client Services Specialist +1 813 605 4464 debi.stolberg@colliers.com

Senior Client Services Specialist +1 813 771 0869 jaclyn.love@colliers.com

Analyst +1 727 298 5307 abby.cronin@colliers.com

Senior Client Services Specialist +1 813 771 8780 emory.lay@colliers.com

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