2019 March - Rockingham County Market Report by Kline May Realty

ROCKINGHAM COUNTY MARKET REPORT March 2019

Presented by:

K L I N E RMe aAl tYy

Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

222

2.41 m

-4.31%

-20.57% 1,283

$235,468

+1.18%

+5.67%

City of Harrisonburg Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

1.49 m

-23.08%

-35.66% 435

$211,299

+2.35%

+6.74%

Southeast Rockingham Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

$299,647

3.59 m

+7.55%

+5.36%

261

-14.81%

-5.09%

Southwest Rockingham Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

$238,094

1.84 m

-2.92%

-25.38%

150

+0.00%

+2.74%

Northwest Rockingham Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

242

2.63 m

-3.97%

-24.40%

$207,960

+11.11%

+7.44%

Northeast Rockingham Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

3.87 m -5.32% 24

121

$226,958

+71.43%

+28.72%

+8.86%

Massanutten Units Sold

12 Month

Months Supply

Year to Date

Residential Sales

Avg Sales Price

of Inventory

1.78 m

-2.63%

-56.55%

$249,726

+62.50%

+7.74%

Residential Sales By Month Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 160

# of Units

140 120 2014 2015

100

2016 2017

2018 2019

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What This Chart Shows: Residential home sales by month, since 2008. This chart helps show seasonal trends in home sales. Bottom Line: The ﬁrst quarter of 2019 behaved much like the ﬁrst three months of prior years, with a slow start coming out of the colder months and then an explosion of activity in the Spring. Total residential sales for the quarter of 222 homes is slightly below last year's total of 232. Despite very strong Buyer activity, the profound lack of inventory has hurt sales.

Residential Units Sold Year To Date Harrisonburg and Rockingham County December

1200

November October

1000

September

# of Units

August July

800

June May

600

April March

400

February January

200

19 20

18 20

17 20

16 20

15 20

14 20

13 20

12 20

11 20

10 20

09 20

What This Chart Shows: Total residential sales from January 1 until the date on this chart, since 2008. Bottom Line: The ﬁrst quarter of 2019 behaved much like the ﬁrst three months of prior years, with a slow start coming out of the colder months and then an explosion of activity in the Spring. Total residential sales for the quarter of 222 homes is slightly below last year's total of 232. Despite very strong Buyer activity, the profound lack of inventory has hurt sales.

Residential Properties Placed Under Contract Harrisonburg and Rockingham County

# of Units

150

100

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What This Chart Shows: The number of residential properties on which Buyers and Sellers entered into contracts each month since 2009. This is an excellent indicator of future sales. Bottom Line: Buyers ratiﬁed contracts on 133 homes during March, but overall there were 14% fewer contracts during the ﬁrst quarter of 2019 than last year, again due to the extremely tight inventory situation. There are Buyers in nearly every price range waiting for the right house to hit the market.

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# of Units

Residential Sales, Past 12 Months Harrisonburg and Rockingham County

1300

1200

Â 1100

1000

900

800

700

What This Chart Shows:

The past twelve months sales, for this month and each month since 2008. This is one of the best ways to see the true long term trend in the

market.

Bottom Line:

The 12-month sales trend is still positive in Rockingham County, with 1,283 residential sales in the past year. However, it is our opinion if there

was adequate inventory to meet Buyer demand the annual pace of sales would be round 1,400 homes.

Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory Rockingham County 700 600

# of Units

500 400 300 200 100

Ja nu ar

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What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in Rockingham County, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The chart above represents over 10 years inventory history for Rockingham County (excluding the City of Harrisonburg). The current number of homes for sale is as low as it has ever been. This is especially worrisome because typically by March the inventory numbers would start going up but this year that hasn't happened. Homeowners are moving less often than in the past (every 9 years vs. every 6 years), lowering the number of resale homes on the market. In addition, there are far fewer new construction "spec homes" for sale than in the past. The cost of development has risen dramatically, making it tough for builders to compete on price with resale homes.

Combined Residential Townhomes

Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory City of Harrisonburg 400

Combined Residential

# of Units

300

200

100

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What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in the City of Harrisonburg, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The inventory situation in the City of Harrisonburg is even more dire than in Rockingam County. Like the County, March did not see an increase in the number of homes for sale, as Buyers pounced on new listings as soon as the hit the market. On average in March, there were 45 homes for sale in the entire City of Harrisonburg across all price ranges.

Townhomes

Average and Median Sold Price Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Average Sold Price $230000

Price

$220000 $210000 $200000 $190000 $180000

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$170000

What This Chart Shows: The long term trend in average and median sales prices for homes. Bottom Line: During 2018 we saw home prices rise fairly dramatically as Buyers competed for the very few homes for sale. At of the end of March, the average and median home prices had risen 5.7% and 6.7% respectively in the past 12 months. This means the average home in our area cost a Buyer about $13,000 more (for the same house) than just 12 months ago. If the inventory gets even tighter during 2019 we can expect to see prices continue to rise at an unhealthy pace.

Median Sold Price