OGV Energy - Issue 32 - May 2020

from OGV Energy - Issue 32 - May 2020

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Legasea, the ideal cost-effective solution during difficult times. The alternative route for recovered subsea production systems.

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They have put the industry in an unprecedented squeeze. How difficult is the situation? In Texas, fiercely independent oil producers are asking the government for help.

As OGV was going to press, OPEC members and Russia brokered a deal designed to cut worldwide production by a staggering 9.7 million barrels a day. Will the agreement hold? And if so, will it be enough?

A global supply glut remains, and until the lockdowns and stay-at-home orders ease and people and goods start moving again, working through that oversupply is likely to be a slow process. Investors have grown wary of the energy business, especially in the U.S., and the easy money is unlikely to return.

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What’s more, restarting the economy will require a wave of policy initiatives around the world, and at least some of those policies may require a reduction in burning fewer fossil fuels. In Europe, climate change concerns have been driving policy for years, and now, the rest of the world may follow suit. In China, for example, the weaker demand has led to more competition among energy sources, and wind and solar energy now account for 20 percent of the country’s installed generation, compared with 2 percent a decade ago. During the first two months of this year, wind power increased by 1 percent and solar by 12 percent, indicating that renewables may claim a bigger portion of the mix as the country recovers, according to a recent report by IHS Markit.

Regardless of how the industry recovers, however, it’s safe to assume that things won’t be the same.

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FOSSIL FUELS

APRIL

UK North Sea Oil & Gas Review

By Tsvetana Paraskova

Over the past month, the key theme in the UK North Sea industry was the coronavirus pandemic, its direct impact on UK offshore oil and gas operations, and the impact of the oil price crash on the future of the North

Sea oil and gas sector.

Following the price collapse in early March – driven by the flop in global oil demand and the break-up of the OPEC+ production cut deal – companies operating in the UK North Sea rushed to cut budgets, investments, and operational costs. Industry associations started to warn about the difficult times ahead for the UK offshore industry and its supply chain.

“The combination of the global economic impact of the continued spread of the coronavirus, the most dramatic fall in oil price in almost 30 years and a halving of gas prices is driving an increasingly fragile outlook for the UK’s offshore oil and gas sector. Severe pressures are already building across the sector’s supply chain, with the pressures expected FOSSIL FUELS to significantly

SPONSORED BY undermine the industry’s businesses, jobs and contribution to the economy,’’ industry association OGUK said in March.

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Database version: Rystad Energy Databases April 2020

Rystad Analytics

Offshore Rig Market AnalysisGlobal overview of current status

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Offshore Rig Market AnalysisFleet current stats

OGV Energy is delighted to be working in partnership with global energy knowledge house, Rystad Energy, to bring industry insights and analytic detail to our readers in Oil & Gas.

As the sector continues to digitise operations on a project and company basis, this high-level monthly data aims to provide key information in context from an industrywide perspective and demonstrate the technology available for those seeking deeper insights to enhance strategic planning and development.

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Conducted by Craig Jamieson and Oddmund Føre @ Rystad Energy

Rystad Analytics

Database version: Rystad Energy Databases April 2020

Offshore Rig Market AnalysisUtilisation

PROUD TO BE IN PARTNERSHIP WITH

OGV Energy is delighted to be working in partnership with global energy knowledge house, Rystad Energy, to bring industry insights and analytic detail to our readers in Oil & Gas.

Offshore Rig Market AnalysisContract backlog

www.ogvenergy.co.uk I May 2020

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Date generated 24 April 2020

UKCS Status Report

Current ProjectsDecommissioning Projects

OPERATOR

(Fields)OPERATOR

(Fields)ALPHA PETROLEUM UK HOLDINGS (Cheviot)

BP EXPLORATION (Alligin - Vorlich - ETAP)

DANA PETROLEUM E&P(Platypus)

ENQUEST PLC (Sullum Voe Terminal -Thistle - Magnus and SVT - All Assets - Ninian to STV Pipeline - All UKCS)

EQUINOR ASA(Utgard)

FAIRFIELD ENERGY LIMITED (Darwin - Skye)

HIBISCUS PETROLEUM(Marigold & Sunflower)

HURRICANE ENERGY (Lancaster)

INDEPENDENT OIL AND GAS(Southwark - Blythe - Elgood)

INEOS INDUSTRIES (Breagh)

ITHACA ENERGY INC. (Captain)

NEPTUNE E&P (Seagull)

PARKMEAD GROUP PLC(Perth)

PERENCO OIL & GAS(Leman & Indefatigable - Wollaston)

PING PETROLEUM LIMITED (Avalon)

PREMIER OIL PLC (Catcher - Tolmount - Solan)

REPSOL SINOPEC RESOURCES(Tain - Montrose)

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL(Gannet D Pipeline Replacement Project - Arran -Jackdaw - Penguin Area - Fram)

SERICA ENERGY (Columbus)

SICCAR POINT ENERGY (Suilven - Tornado - Cambo)

TAQA EUROPA B.V. (Harding North)

TOTAL UPSTREAM UK LIMITED (Edradour - Glenlivet)

WHALSAY ENERGY (Bentley)

WHALSAY ENERGY (Sillimanite)

ALPHA PETROLEUM UK HOLDINGS (Wenlock)

BP EXPLORATION(Don - Miller)CNOOC LIMITED(Ettrick/Blackbird)CNR INTERNATIONAL

(Ninian)CONOCOPHILLIPS

(Caister CM - Murdoch - CMS - MacCulloch)

DANA PETROLEUM E&P (Hudson)

DNO NORTH SEA(Schooner)ENI UK LIMITED

(Big Dotty - Little Dotty - Dawn - Hewett)ENQUEST PLC

(EnQuest Producer - Heather)INEOS INDUSTRIES

(Cavendish)NEPTUNE E&P

(Minke - Juliet)PERENCO OIL & GAS

(Guinevere - TYNE - Pickerill)PREMIER OIL PLC

(Glamis - Huntington - Balmoral - Rita & Hunter - Caledonia)REPSOL SINOPEC RESOURCES

(Tartan - Buchan - Beatrice - Fulmar)ROCKROSE ENERGY

(Brae Bravo - East Brae)ROYAL DUTCH SHELL

(Various - Brent - Atlantic and Cromarty - Curlew - Goldeneye)

SPIRIT ENERGY(Ensign - South Morecambe - Audrey - Annabel - Ann & AlisonMarkham - York - Trees)

TAQA EUROPA B.V(Eider - Tern - North Cormorant - Cormorant Alpha)

WALDORF PRODUCTION (Renee / Rubie)

JERSEY OIL AND GAS PLC (Glenn)

PHARIS ENERGY LTD (Pilot)

TAQA EUROPA B.V(Harding North)

Discovery Projects

TOTAL UPSTREAM UK LIMITED (Edradour Royal Sovereign)

HURRICANE ENERGY(Lincoln, Warwick)

PHARIS ENERGY LTD(Pilot)

For additional project summaries, locations and contact details, follow the link www.oilandgasvisionjobs.com/project-pathfinder

WORLD PROJECTS

WORLD PROJECTS MAP

USA - Chevron US$5.7bn

APRIL 2020

Anchor uHPHT Field Development, Phase 1 - Aker Solutions has signed a 20-year master agreement to provide 24-km of 20,000 psi dynamic steel-tube and power umbilicals and distribution equipment for the project. The agreement includes the delivery of engineering, design and manufacturing of umbilicals. The work also involves service and installation support. Meanwhile, Transocean will supply a specialised semi-submersible drilling rig, the Deepwater Titan for the project on a five-year contract.

WORLD PROJECTS

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By Tsvetana Paraskova

Middle East Oil & Gas amid Coronavirus Crisis and OPEC+ Drama

In one of the most dramatic and strangest months in the history of global energy markets, the Middle East took centre stage among all regions in the world while oil and gas investors and analysts were looking with apprehension how the global spread of COVID-19 was shutting down entire nations and industries, decimating oil and gas demand.

At Craig International, procurement isn’t just about processes, products and numbers. We promote a culture of ownership among our people, who are trusted to get on with the job on your behalf. We’re proud of how we serve clients. We’re always looking for new ways to add value and routinely introduce new technological solutions to make service delivery even simpler, smoother, faster. When it comes to procurement, we get it. Adding value, innovation and efficiency at every turn in your supply chain.

Thanks to the huge oil and gas reserves of producers that are core to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the Middle East has always been under the spotlight.

But over the past month, the actions of the largest oil producers in the Middle East – most of all OPEC’s top producer and the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia – combined with the coronavirus pandemic that swept through the world to create a perfect storm for global oil and gas markets, plunging the energy industry into its second major downturn in five years.

Global oil demand has tumbled as billions of people went into lockdown, and analysts expect that oil demand loss could reach as much as 30 million barrels per day (bpd) in April and May—or a 30% plunge compared to the world’s oil consumption prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.

The OPEC+ Collapse

OPEC+, the group of OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, respectively, was scheduled to hold a regular meeting in early March to discuss how it would proceed with its pact to cut production which was expiring on March 31. The coronavirus pandemic, however, totally upended previous forecasts about global oil demand growth and producers scrambled to assess future oil supply policies in a world of declining demand.

OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Middle East, argued that the OPEC+ coalition should make deeper cuts in response to slowing oil demand. The leader of the non-OPEC nations in the pact, Russia, for its part, argued that the demand loss is impossible to predict and the OPEC+ group should leave the pact and cuts as-in until June before taking any decision.

OPEC recommended a collective OPEC+ production cut of 1.5 million barrels per day until the end of 2020. But Russia refused to join those deeper cuts and Saudi Arabia and Russia were, for a month, rivals that even used media to accuse each other of breaking up the OPEC+ alliance which had managed supply for more than three years hoping to prop up oil prices.

The collapse of the OPEC+ deal in early March and Saudi Arabia’s statements in the following days that it would boost production significantly and sell its crude oil at deep discounts added to the demand worries in the pandemic to send international oil prices into a tailspin. On March 9, oil prices plunged by 25%, the worst one-day crash since 1991.

The market was spooked by the double supply-demand shock and oil companies from the U.S. shale patch to Europe’s supermajors to independent oil explorers in the North Sea started announcing significant capital expenditure (CapEx) and cost cuts. The oil industry, which had just adapted to $50 oil after a lot of cost cuts in the 2015-2016 downturn, found itself aligning investments and costs to $30 a barrel Brent oil.

www.ogvenergy.co.uk I May 2020

REGIONAL REVIEWS

By Tsvetana Paraskova

European Energy Review

The spreading coronavirus pandemic was the underlying theme in Europe’s energy sector this past month. European oil and gas companies, as well as associations of the renewable energy industry, scrambled to assess the impact of COVID-19 on their operations, cash flows, and future projects.

Oil supermajors slashed capital expenditures as oil prices plunged by 50% in one month amid continuous demand destruction in the pandemic and the more-than-a-month-long price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The pandemic did not spare the clean energy sector, either. Associations and analysts now see wind and solar installations slowing down this year, compared to earlier projections of another bumper year in 2020.

Despite a more pessimistic outlook on renewables, some major projects in alternative energy in Europe have moved forward in recent weeks.

Norway’s Oil & Gas Exploration Activity Slows Down

Due to the oil price collapse and low natural gas prices, exploration activity offshore Norway will not be as high as companies had prepared for just a couple of months ago, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said in an update in early April.

In January 2020, companies operating on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) planned to drill 50 exploration wells, but at least 10 wells have been postponed due to the uncertainty in the industry and the cuts in exploration spending across the board.

“What we’re seeing now, is both exploration wells being postponed and delays/cancellations of geophysical mapping. As of today, it appears that around 10 exploration wells will be postponed, meaning that there will be about 40 exploration wells in 2020. However, we can’t rule out further changes in this area in the future,” said NPD Director General Ingrid Sølvberg.

Referring to fields in operation, Sølvberg noted that wells were being postponed because of the price crash and/or because staffing offshore is reduced due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“There is a risk of several of these wells not being drilled later, which could mean a risk of losing resources,” Sølvberg says.

Production offshore Norway is being maintained for now, but fewer wells drilled, both exploration and on fields in operation, could impact future oil and gas production in Norway if oil prices stay lower for longer, NPD warned.

Europe-based Oil Majors Slash Spending as Prices Crash

Following the oil price crash in early March, the oil and gas supermajors based in Europe rushed to announce capital spending cuts to protect balance sheets and dividends.

Royal Dutch Shell announced reduction of its 2020 cash capital expenditure (CapEx) to US$20 billion or below from a previously projected level of around US$25 billion. Shell also targets to cut its underlying operating costs by US$3-4 billion annually over the next 12 months compared to 2019 levels. The group also warned it would book post-tax impairment charges in the range of US$400-800 million in Q1, as a result of changes to its oil price outlook for this year.

BP is cutting 2020 organic CapEx to US$12 billion, which is 25% below its prior full-year guidance. The supermajor is cutting US$1 billion in the upstream sector, mainly in short-cycle onshore activity in the U.S. shale patch. BP expects to take a non-cash, nonoperating charge of around $1 billion in Q1. While BP is responding to the new ‘lower-for-longer’ oil prices with CapEx and cost cuts, the company’s response “will not include making any bp staff redundant over the next 3 months,’’ chief executive Bernard Looney said in a LinkedIn post at the end of March.

Italy’s Eni responds to the sharp drop in commodity prices and the pandemic by reducing CapEx for 2020 by around 2 billion euros (US$2.19 billion / £1.74 billion), equal to 25% of the previously planned

CapEx. In 2021, Eni expects to cut CapEx by 30-35% compared to previous guidance.

Aker BP updated its investment programme, cutting exploration spending by 20% in 2020, with further significant reductions planned for 2021-22. The company operating mainly offshore Norway put on hold non-sanctioned field development projects. For 2020, this would be CapEx reduction of 20% compared to previous guidance, while for 2021-22 the initial estimate is a reduction in capital spend of US$1-2 billion.

Norway’s Equinor suspended it share buyback programme until further notice, cut its 2020 organic CapEx by 20% from US$10-11 billion to around US$8.5 billion, reduced exploration activity this year from US$1.4 billion to around US$1 billion, and cut operating costs for 2020 by around US$700 million compared to original estimates.

France’s Total cut organic CapEx by more than 20%, to less than US$15 billion this year and suspended its share repurchase programme.

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www.ogvenergy.co.uk I May 2020

REGIONAL REVIEWSU.S.

By Loren Steffy

U.S. producers swallow their pride and ask for government aid

Caught among the price war between OPEC and Russia, the declining oil demand as a result of the global coronavirus pandemic and mounting pressure from investors, the U.S. oil industry cried uncle. Uncle Sam, that is.

Last month, as pressure on the industry intensified and prices for West Texas Intermediate crude — which have tumbled 60% so far this year — slipped below $20 a barrel, the industry, which had long criticised government subsidies for renewables and biofuels, suddenly changed its tone and asked the federal government for help.

Independent producers urged the Trump administration to enact import tariffs on foreign oil, a measure opposed by the majors and refiners. President Trump responded in his own particular idiom, tweeting that he expected an agreement between the Saudis and the Russians to curtail production by 10 million barrels. The Energy Department proposed spending $3 billion in stimulus funds to buy 30 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from small and mid-sized producers, but Democrats blocked the move, calling it “a bailout for Big Oil.”

Meanwhile, the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates oil and gas production in the biggest oil-producing state, agreed to hold hearings on enacting production quotas, an authority it hasn’t exercised in five decades. More than 90 speakers, mostly from the industry, signed up to speak at the first hearing on April 14.

“If the Texas Railroad Commission does not regulate long term, we will disappear as an industry,” said Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major independent producer. Sheffield discounted any notion from his fellow executives of seeking free-market solutions to the current crisis. “That’s a joke. I haven’t seen a free market in 35 years as CEO.”

Matt Gallagher, the CEO of Parsley Energy, writing in the Houston Chronicle, said his company slashed its 2020 capital budget by 40% and urged other companies to voluntarily cut production.

Larger companies took similar measures. Chevron, for example, halved its spending for U.S. shale production and slashed 2020 capital spending by 20%, or $4 billion. Marathon Oil, a large independent producer, also said it will cut spending by 20%.

Among the hardest hit of U.S. producers is Occidental Petroleum, which paid $37 billion last year to acquire Anadarko Petroleum in a deal that saddled the company with $38 billion in debt just months before prices began to crater. In March, Oxy reduced its dividend to shareholders for the first time in 30 years and slashed spending by a third. The company followed that news a few weeks later by announcing a second round of cuts — $2.5 billion from its capital budget and $600 million from its operating budget — and reduced pay for employees by 30%. Senior executives took bigger pay cuts, and CEO Vicki Hollub saw her pay slashed by more than 80%.

Service companies, as they typically do, led the layoffs in response to the price rout. Even after a tentative deal among OPEC members and Russia, Baker Hughes said it would write down $15 billion in assets and cut capital spending by 20%. Schlumberger announced several weeks earlier it would reduce its budget by 30%, which would include restructuring, pay cuts and layoffs. Halliburton, meanwhile, previously announced it would furlough 3,500 workers in Houston and 400 in Oklahoma. Dozens of smaller players followed suit. Whiting Petroleum, which once traded as high as $150 a share, filed for bankruptcy in late March.

The price drop and the coronavirus response accentuated a bigger program in the industry: mounting debt. For years, many independent producers have overspent their cash flow, drilling new wells with cheap capital from private equity investors. In the past decade, the industry amassed some $400 billion in high-interest debt. That flow of easy money began to dry up before the pandemic. Last year, oil stocks began falling as investors demanded profitability over market share.

In the Permian Basin, the prolific engine for surging U.S. crude production, the slowdown is slow to arrive. In mid-April, 40 companies, mostly independent producers, in one week filed for permits to drill 110 new wells in the region. And companies continue to seek permits in other shale formations as well. After several years of production increases, the U.S. Energy Information Administration now forecasts a decline of 183,000 barrels a day in May. Sheffield, the Pioneer CEO, predicted output ultimately could drop by as much as 2 million barrels.

The production declines likely mean that America’s transition to net oil exporter will be short-lived. In recent months, the U.S. exported more oil than it imported, but economists predict that will change as production falls. The biggest U.S. refineries still import heavy crude, rather than using the light, sweet crude produced from the country’s shale formations.

As oil and gas usage plunged in the first four months of the year, there are signs of other shifts in the U.S. energy sector. Coal use fell more than 13% in 2019, the most in 65 years, as coal-fired power plants shut down nationwide. The U.S. used 596 million tons compared with 688 million tons in 2018, and the EIA predicts coal consumption will continue to decline, dropping to 517 million tons this year. Coal has faced mounting competition from cleaner generating fuels, primarily natural gas, wind and solar power.

As the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal also is under pressure from policymakers concerned about climate change. Two of the most populous states, New York and California, have mandated a transition to clean energy.

Meanwhile, in the Oil Patch, the reality of a major bust is setting in. Some industry veterans are comparing the current crisis to the 1980s, but increasingly, it’s looking like the 1930s, when overproduction by American companies forced the government to intervene to control output and support prices to keep the industry afloat. So far, though, the industry is finding little sympathy from state or federal regulators.

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By Dalia de León

Mexican Energy Review

Neither the oil price war, nor the global pandemic of COVID-19 has changed the course of the energy policy that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador established for the country. With a strong ideology focused on energy sovereignty, the strengthening of Pemex, the increase in oil refining capacity, the rehabilitation of existing refineries, and the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery continue to be proposed as the way forward.

ligned with an energy sovereignty ideology, President Andrés Manuel

ALópez Obrador has based his national development strategy on Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), which is one of the main axes of his government. However, the state-owned enterprise is one of the most indebted oil companies in the world, according to international rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch. Besides, for a decade, it has faced a sharp drop in its production levels of hydrocarbons, especially crude oil. López Obrador undertook a strategy to rescue Pemex with a formula that consists of increasing the injection of public resources and restricting the participation of private capital. Likewise, it has presented projects highly dependent on hydrocarbons, such as the combined cycle projects in Yucatan, and the construction of the Dos Bocas Refinery in Tabasco, which will have an investment of US$ 8 billion. According to the calculations of the government, Dos Bocas will avoid the import of fossil energy resources, which is expected to boost the political and economic independence that the President is seeking.

In 2019, the international trade war between China and the US, in addition to the changes made to the legal framework of the energy market promoted by the current administration, caused an increase in nervousness and uncertainty among investors. In this way, the drop in GDP and the fragility of Pemex marked the first year of government. Coupled with this, is the current crisis caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, which impacted the country at a critical moment since the pandemic was announced not even two weeks after Pemex reported losses of US$ 18 billion in 2019 due to the decrease in sales and in crude oil production.

Given the devastating drop in oil prices caused by the current crisis, OPEC proposed a historic multilateral deal to lower global oil production at 10 MMb /d, a measurement that would apply for May and June, with the expectation of maintaining low levels of extraction for two years. Negotiations between energy ministers had been fluid until Mexico’s representation team, led by Rocio Nahle, Ministry of Energy, refused to reduce national production by 23 percent, equivalent to quit production of 400 Mb/d.

“Mexico can and should join the international community in stabilising the oil market"

said Aldo Flores Quiroga

Through a Twitter post, Rocio Nahle announced, “In the agreement to stabilise the price of oil at the @OPECSecretariat, Mexico has proposed a reduction of 100Mb/d over the next two months. From 1,781MMb/d of production we reported in March 2020, we will decrease it to 1,681MMb/d,” which is far less than the target proposed by the group. This statement made OPEC consider not to include Mexico in the agreement, which would have caused great harm to the position of the country within the group of oil-producing countries.

“Mexico can and should join the international community in stabilising the oil market,” said Aldo Flores Quiroga, who served as former Mexican deputy oil minister from 2016 to 2018 in the OPEC deals negotiations. “The production cut is both necessary and possible. It’s the responsible thing to do domestically and internationally,” he added.

Given this, the President of the US, Donald Trump, said that he would produce fewer barrels of oil to help Mexico comply with OPEC’s agreement to curb the drop in prices, support that Mexico will repay in the future. Donald Trump explained in a press conference that “this means reducing US production, it is a large amount (of barrels) for Mexico, but for us, it is little.”

Bad news for PEMEX continues. On April 18th, Fitch Ratings announced that it reduced the long-term international ratings in foreign and local currency for PEMEX and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). For Fitch, this decision “reflects the direct link of these companies with the sovereign ratings of Mexico.” In the specific case of Pemex, its credit rating fell from “BB” to “BB-,” while CFE went from “BBB” to “BBB-,” the outlook for both changed from stable to negative.

According to Fitch, PEMEX has “limited flexibility to face the challenges of the industry, given the high tax burden on its income, the high levels of debt, the increasing costs of extracting crude oil and the high need for investment in maintaining production and replenishing reserves.” It also ensures that “the corporate governance of the state company is weak, as the government constantly interferes in changes in strategy, financing, and administration.”

As previously mentioned, the country’s current energy policy has generated that even though Mexico has great potential in internationally competitive renewable energy sources, its energy matrix is based mainly on hydrocarbons. In this scenario, the drop in oil prices has highlighted the weaknesses of the energy transition in Mexico. “Energy sovereignty is completely desirable, but currently energy sovereignty will be renewable, or it will not be, since it will not be through oil and we cannot have sovereignty over electricity generation with gas because we do not have enough,” highlighted Pablo Ramírez, climate and energy expert at Greenpeace Mexico.

According to UNDP-Mexico, the national GHG emission made during electricity and heat production line is derived from the consumption of fossil fuels by the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), the Independent Power Producers (PIE), and the power plants of self-sufficiency. Regarding this topic, the Ministry of Energy (SENER) points out that “In this sense, the fuels used to produce electricity by these entities are mineral coal, fuel oil, diesel, and natural gas.”

www.ogvenergy.co.uk I May 2020

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OGV Energy - Issue 32 - May 2020

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OGV Energy - Issue 32 - May 2020