Column: Matt James

MATT JAMES

Crunching the numbers can tell you who the BTCC top dog is

Photos: Jakob Ebrey

Shedden is the best all-rounder Ingram: Top dog at Silverstone

You wouldn’t think it if you stood trackside, but the British Touring Car Championship can be about playing the percentages. It isn’t all bumper-crunching and elbowing other cars out of the way – certainly not for the headline drivers.

There is the age-old balancing act between front-wheel drive and rear-wheel drive. Some circuits suit the rear-motivated cars while others are more suitable for front-wheel-drive machines.

But there is another factor that can make a huge difference, and that is the drivers. We’ve crunched the numbers and worked out, over the last 15 race finishes at each circuit, which drivers have aced particular circuits. The results are fascinating.

The most successful driver across the board is Gordon Shedden. While he has spent all of the five seasons this covers in a front-line front-wheel-drive car – whereas not all of the others have – he is the most consistent performer over each of the nine venues we have looked at. The Team Dynamics driver is best at Brands Hatch Indy (with an average finish of 5.46), Donington Park National (5.29) and Oulton Park (3.80) (traditionally thought of as a rear-wheel-drive track). Shedden is also in

Thruxton expert Josh Cook is impressive the top three at four other venues.

Unsurprisingly, he is pleased with the outcome and the three-time title winner knows it is making the most of the key circuits that can bring the big differences in terms of points collected.

He says: “With experience in the championship, you realise that some circuits suit certain cars. That is a fact, it is not opinion. I think over the years, we have ended up making the Honda Civic Type R pretty good everywhere. It might not be stellar at a particular circuit, but it will not be horrendous at another either. We are there or thereabouts everywhere, and that is why the car has had so much success over the years.

“If you look at the statistics, it is borne out because at Croft and Knockhill, which are traditionally rear-wheel-drive circuits, I am third in the averages and they are supposedly tracks that might not suit the Honda so well. So even the weekends where we might not expect to dominate due to the nature of the tracks, we are able to keep a strong points tally ticking over. “You know where your strengths are and you know you have a car good enough to win, then you throw the kitchen sink at it. If you are at a track where your car might only be good enough for seventh or eighth, then you need to make sure you take the absolute maximum from it and don’t finish any further back.”

The only blot on Shedden’s card is at Snetterton. The Norfolk track has generally been unkind to him – including getting kicked out of pole position for a rear-wing infringement last season, forcing him to race from the back all weekend.

Four-time title winner Colin Turkington is known as the King of Croft, and the statistics confirm this – he has an average finishing position in North Yorkshire of 3.77, while he is top at Knockhill too, although reigning champion Ash Sutton pushes him hard in Scotland. The majority of those two’s results have been banked in rear-wheel-drive cars. Turkington is also heading the statistics at Snetterton too, with an average of 4.43.

Crucially, though, Sutton himself is only top of the averages at one venue, and it is right at the business end of the season on the Brands Hatch Grand Prix layout. There he clocks a 4.71 average. His rival for the crown in 2021, Turkington, is lagging in fourth place at Brands Hatch with an average of 9.23. So, when the title is on the line, the smart money will always go on Sutton striking hard in Kent.

With five wins from the last 12 visits to Thruxton, it is no surprise that Josh Cook is top of the rankings at the Hampshire speedbowl. The only other circuit to feature a different driver at the top of the charts is Silverstone National, where Tom Ingram’s average finish is 4.58 – just under three places better than second-placed driver Turkington. It makes Ingram the most dominant onecircuit dominator.

Of course, statistics can be read in any way to make the result that any person wants to take from them, but there are some lessons to be learned here. The split across the season gives a slight edge to front-wheel-drive cars – six tracks to four – and if you were a gambler, the smart money should be laid on Shedden for a fourth crown in 2022. If only things were that simple...

Shedden knows it is about taking the chances