KW Metro Center-Greater DC Market Report Year End 2019

KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.

YEAR IN REVIEW MARKET REPORT

2019

®

A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe results for the 2019 Greater DC real estate market are in and they are no less than impressive. NOVA, D.C. and Montgomery County all experienced positive growth with Northern Virginia experiencing some of the strongest growth in our region both in terms of avg home sale price increase and unit sales. Demand far outweighed inventory and we expect that theme to continue in 2020.

NOVA experienced the strongest performance with an overall annual home sale price increase of 3.6%. Surprisingly, unit sales were up 1.7%, this in the face of continuing low inventory levels. Fairfax County and Arlington County delivered impressive results with Lorton, Woodbridge and Springfield leading the way. Average home sale prices in those cities increased by 8%, 5.2% and 4.8% respectfully.

Washington D.C. and Montgomery County also demonstrated the strength of their markets with increases in home sale prices (+2.5% & +2.3% respectfully), unit sales and a reduction in DOM. Town homes were the dominant property stock driving this performance in Wash D.C. and single family home sales being the predominant housing stock sold in Montgomery County as would be expected.

As we head into 2020, the Greater DC real estate market will continue the positive growth we’ve experienced over the past several years. Inventory levels are projected to inch up slightly with interest rates remaining at present levels (with some minor fluctuations) and median home prices expected to rise 4-4 ½ % on an annual basis. Inventory levels will remain tight with specific zip codes experiencing greater desirability based on proximity and schools. Transportation continues to be a primary consideration in the home buying decision process but will be somewhat mitigated by the rail and road projects currently underway.

The housing market in 2020 will be fiercely competitive. Rising rents, the ever expanding (and aging) millennial population, pent up demand and the low interest rate environment will result in bidding wars with the most desirable homes being snatched up as quickly as they come to market. The market is already experiencing strong activity on the part of buyers and sellers in the form of open houses, showings and offers. Creativity and urgency will be the watchwords as buyers scramble for a competitive edge with sellers.

The rapid pace of large multi-unit residential developments especially in NOVA and D.C. will help offset some of this demand and provide greater choice for buyers. Additionally, single family housing starts are forecasted to rise and private sector job and wage growth will continue to positively impact the affordability of housing in our area. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have taken the preemptive step of raising conforming loan limits to $510K up from $484k in 2019 and $765k for high cost areas, thereby putting more buyers previously frozen out of the market back into the mix.

Reshaping the Greater D.C. landscape and therefore the real estate market are the myriad of Billion dollar infrastructure and construction projects just currently completed, under construction or scheduled to begin in 2020. The completion of the Silver Line, expansion of Rt 66, the widening of the American Legion bridge along with other major projects will continue to attract investment and relocation by large tech, biomedical and professional service companies further driving housing demands.

The market is still years away from reaching an adequate supply of homes to meet today’s demand but the short term outlook remains extremely promising. It’s going to be a great year for home sellers and an anxious time for buyers. Buckle up!

- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker

KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS

C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3

DMV

MARKET

ANALYSIS

NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6

ALEXANDRIA

6

ARLINGTON

6

FALLS

7

LORTON

CHURCH

7

McLEAN

8

S P R I NG F I E L D

8

VIENNA

8

WOODBRIDGE

WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10

CAPITOL

10

D OW N T OW N

HILL

10

D U P O N T

11

F O G G Y

11

G E O RG E T OW N

11

K A L O R A M A

11

L O G A N

C I RC L E

12

M O U N T

P L E A SA N T

B O T T O M / W E S T

12

S H AW

12

W E S L E Y

H E I G H T S

M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14

B E T H E S DA

14

C H E V Y

14

P O T O M AC

15

R O C K V I L L E

15

S I LV E R

C H A S E

S P R I NG

E N D

Q4 MARKET SUMMARY

Q4 2019

DAYS ON MARKET

Q4 2019

AVERAGE SALE PRICE

Q4 2019

UNIT SALES

4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

“

“

Not surprisingly, NOVA turned in a performance that can only be categorized as enviable.

Most cities across this jurisdiction saw rapid growth and escalating home price increases in 2019. Considered two of the most competitive markets in the nation, the Alexandria and Arlington markets continued to see significant home price increases but lagged behind in unit sales based on depressed inventory levels. However, Fairfax County posted a 4% home price increase and unit sales were up 3% with average days on market down 17%.

2018 1840

2019 1826

% -1

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$698,834 33

$715,657 26

+2.5 -29

units sold avg sold price

2059 $572,778

1870 $593,727

-9 +4

26 2076 $318,927 34 1060 $1,026,963 32

17 1964 $340,419 18 1002 $1,080,483 29

-35 -5 +7 -47 +6 +5 -9

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

503 $639,536 23

417 $657,540 15

-17 +3 -35

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

1738 $427,927 33

1499 $445,637 21

-14 +4 -36

115

119

+3

$1,028,549 30

$1,016,132 35

-1 +17

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

40 $690,425 13

29 $777,007 19

-28 +13 +46

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

55 $461,578 20

49 $511,620 29

-11 +11 +45

units sold

Alexandria

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Arlington

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Falls Church

MARKET BALANCE

18

single family homes

3 ,7

its sold 1 un

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2019

20

19

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

→

4%

SELLERS

BALANCED

18,007 units sold 2018

$12.9B

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2019

6

BUYERS

Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong

2018 195 $646,015

2019 220 $669,663

% +13 +4

30

36

+20

256 $394,796 25 76 $262,107 23 533 $1,628,518 57

256 $428,308 17 68 $276,858 19 565 $1,487,453 45

+8.5 -32 -11 +6 -17 +6 -9 -21

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

94 $811,703 38

88 $860,673 27

-7 +6 -29

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

290 $426,421 39

279 $415,567 30

-4 -2.5 -23

units sold avg sold price

Lorton

Single Family avg days on market

McLean

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

7

2018 795

2019 856

% +8

$567,429

$586,232

+3

26

20

-23

units sold avg sold price

540 $409,312

507 $428,087

-6 +4

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

18 115 $251,497

14 113 $272,797

-22 -2 +8

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

19 617 $968,670

14 682 $985,516

-26 +10.5 +2

37

28

-24

182 $637,324

175 $652,398

-4 +2

Townhouse avg days on market

21

38

+33

units sold

120

129

+7.5

$377,527 45

$380,233 22

+1 -51

1548

1609

+4

403,138

$428,052

+4

31

29

-6

1365

1445

+6

$295,043

$312,391

+6

Townhouse avg days on market

25

22

-12

units sold

475

495

+4

$263,758

$264,181

-

31

22

-29

units sold avg sold price

Springfield

Vienna

Single Family avg days on market

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price

Woodbridge

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong

8

WASHINGTON, D.C.

“

“

The D.C. market showed strong growth across several segments on a Year Over Year basis.

Overall unit sales experienced a 2.6% increase despite sporadic unit sale results across several neighborhoods. Average home prices were up 2.5% with town homes delivering the greatest increases in the Capitol Hill, Kalorama, Logan Circle and Shaw neighborhoods.

Multi-unit development continues to dominate the D.C. real estate landscape as seen in the significant number of large residential projects underway across the district. Inventory will become less of an issue as these projects reach completion providing more choice for buyers and flattening home prices-a boon for buyers and sellers alike.

2018

2019

%

16 $1,108,063

20 $881,553

+25 -20

Single Family avg days on market

27

27

-

units sold

289

382

+32

$990,293

$1,074,417

+8.5

21 217

21 163

-25

$542,333

$565,940

-4

22 2

23 1

+4.5 -50

$492,500

$1,140,000

+131

Single Family avg days on market

11

52

+372

units sold

11

11

-

$1,013,500

$1,516,282

+50

Townhouse avg days on market

41

22

-46

units sold

175

146

-17

$452,538

$525,056

+16

30

28

-7

2 $2,387,500

1 $1,140,000

-50 -52

Single Family avg days on market

203

52

-74

units sold

15

23

+53

$1,262,550

$1,392,328

+10

Townhouse avg days on market

28

23

-18

units sold

97

108

+11

$438,607

$525,601

+20

32

25

-22

units sold avg sold price

Capitol Hill

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Downtown

avg sold price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price

Dupont

avg sale price

avg sale price

→

.75%

4

condo & co-op

MARKET BALANCE The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2019

units sold 20 5 26

19

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

SELLERS

4233 units

BALANCED

sold 2018

$2.3B

TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) 2019

10

BUYERS

Foggy Bottom/ West End

2018

2019

%

-

2 $995,000 6

-

20 $980,805 37 239 $817,555 44 25

14 $1,000,679 31 270 $709,552 46 24

-30 +2 -16 +13 -13 +5 -4

$2,212,657 125

$2,892,181 87

+31 -30

90

96

+7

$1,701,396 40

$1,624,173 49

-4.5 +22.5

88

88

-

$904,475 54

$836,389 46

-8 -15

9 $4,314,222

7 $1,942,771

-22 -55

167

55

-67

51 $1,237,959 32

19 $1,737,105 47

-63 +40 +47

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

185 $594,368 26

140 $728,756 22

-24 +23 -15

units sold avg sale price

1 $899,000

-

-

6

-

-

32 $1,161,316 36

29 $1,388,254 14

-9 +20 -61

153 $759,159 20

178 $694,079 21

+16 -9 +5

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

Georgetown

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price

Kalorama

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

Logan Circle

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

11

2018

2019

%

Mount Pleasant

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

3 $1,035,667 4

4 $829,325 26

+33 -20 +550

Shaw

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

70 $1,057,969 18 125 $519,716 21 2 $585,000 28

76 $1,123,825 18 97 $529,409 31 -

+9 +6 -22 +2 +47 -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

44 $959,274 15

57 $1,038,633 24

+30 +8 +60

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

53 $791,453 22

72 $671,310 15

+36 -15 -32

13 $1,873,596 12

23 $2,073,130 38

+77 +11 +217

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

22 $852,586 28

21 $885,434 49

-5 +4 +75

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

82 $470,858 47

75 $474,601 55

-9 +1 +17

Wesley Heights

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong

12

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

“

“

Montgomery County also turned in a fairly strong performance with the cities of Bethesda, Chevy Chase and Silver Spring as this jurisdiction’s standouts. Average home prices for MoCo were up 2.3%, unit sales up 3.3% and DOM (days on market) down 3%. The year end metrics belie the mixed bag of results each city experienced but the proposed economic development strategy that includes transportation, housing, workforce development and business development portends good things for the future housing market in Montgomery County. Look for 2020 to deliver similar results as those of 2019.

2018

2019

%

796

853

+7

$1,167,011 41

$1,188,678 40

+2 -2

units sold avg sold price

99 $815,002

97 $869,991

-2 +7

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

29 333 $440,841

39 333 $462,642

+34 +5

51 246 $1,417,122

52 290 $1,357,408

+2 +18 -4

Single Family avg days on market

39

38

-3

units sold

27

33

+22

$826,540 23

$903,987 25

+9 +9

159

165

+4

$612,394 68

$651,587 49

+6 -28

471 $1,114,949 49

493 $1,115,179 49

+5 -

87

75

-14

avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

$813,598 49

$716,444 32

-12 -35

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

8 $898,750 65

14 $842,528 40

+75 -6 -38

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Bethesda

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Chevy Chase

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Potomac

→ 6

single family homes

6 93

MARKET BALANCE

5%

units sold

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2019

20

19

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

units sold

SELLERS

BALANCED

6594 units sold 2018

$4.9B

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2019

14

BUYERS

Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong

2018

2019

%

921 $584,675

969 $580,866

+5 -1

30

30

-

units sold avg sold price

324 $547,950

310 $546,163

-4 -

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

31 415 $324,526

33 480 $315,190

+6 +16 -3

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

37 1676 $496,214 30

41 1738 $502,681 29

+11 +4 +1 -3

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

522 $349,964 30

500 $374,272 27

-4 +7 -10

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

857 $217,903 38

830 $231,583 33

-3 +6 -13

units sold avg sold price

Rockville

Silver Spring

Single Family avg days on market

15

get to know the good life.

KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®

ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610

ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000

TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000