KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.
YEAR IN REVIEW MARKET REPORT
2019
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe results for the 2019 Greater DC real estate market are in and they are no less than impressive. NOVA, D.C. and Montgomery County all experienced positive growth with Northern Virginia experiencing some of the strongest growth in our region both in terms of avg home sale price increase and unit sales. Demand far outweighed inventory and we expect that theme to continue in 2020. NOVA experienced the strongest performance with an overall annual home sale price increase of 3.6%. Surprisingly, unit sales were up 1.7%, this in the face of continuing low inventory levels. Fairfax County and Arlington County delivered impressive results with Lorton, Woodbridge and Springfield leading the way. Average home sale prices in those cities increased by 8%, 5.2% and 4.8% respectfully. Washington D.C. and Montgomery County also demonstrated the strength of their markets with increases in home sale prices (+2.5% & +2.3% respectfully), unit sales and a reduction in DOM. Town homes were the dominant property stock driving this performance in Wash D.C. and single family home sales being the predominant housing stock sold in Montgomery County as would be expected. As we head into 2020, the Greater DC real estate market will continue the positive growth we’ve experienced over the past several years. Inventory levels are projected to inch up slightly with interest rates remaining at present levels (with some minor fluctuations) and median home prices expected to rise 4-4 ½ % on an annual basis. Inventory levels will remain tight with specific zip codes experiencing greater desirability based on proximity and schools. Transportation continues to be a primary consideration in the home buying decision process but will be somewhat mitigated by the rail and road projects currently underway. The housing market in 2020 will be fiercely competitive. Rising rents, the ever expanding (and aging) millennial population, pent up demand and the low interest rate environment will result in bidding wars with the most desirable homes being snatched up as quickly as they come to market. The market is already experiencing strong activity on the part of buyers and sellers in the form of open houses, showings and offers. Creativity and urgency will be the watchwords as buyers scramble for a competitive edge with sellers. The rapid pace of large multi-unit residential developments especially in NOVA and D.C. will help offset some of this demand and provide greater choice for buyers. Additionally, single family housing starts are forecasted to rise and private sector job and wage growth will continue to positively impact the affordability of housing in our area. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have taken the preemptive step of raising conforming loan limits to $510K up from $484k in 2019 and $765k for high cost areas, thereby putting more buyers previously frozen out of the market back into the mix. Reshaping the Greater D.C. landscape and therefore the real estate market are the myriad of Billion dollar infrastructure and construction projects just currently completed, under construction or scheduled to begin in 2020. The completion of the Silver Line, expansion of Rt 66, the widening of the American Legion bridge along with other major projects will continue to attract investment and relocation by large tech, biomedical and professional service companies further driving housing demands. The market is still years away from reaching an adequate supply of homes to meet today’s demand but the short term outlook remains extremely promising. It’s going to be a great year for home sellers and an anxious time for buyers. Buckle up!
- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
CHURCH
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
10
D OW N T OW N
HILL
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
B O T T O M / W E S T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
H E I G H T S
M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E
S P R I NG
E N D
Q4 MARKET SUMMARY
Q4 2019
DAYS ON MARKET
Q4 2019
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
Q4 2019
UNIT SALES
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
Not surprisingly, NOVA turned in a performance that can only be categorized as enviable. Most cities across this jurisdiction saw rapid growth and escalating home price increases in 2019. Considered two of the most competitive markets in the nation, the Alexandria and Arlington markets continued to see significant home price increases but lagged behind in unit sales based on depressed inventory levels. However, Fairfax County posted a 4% home price increase and unit sales were up 3% with average days on market down 17%.
2018 1840
2019 1826
% -1
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$698,834 33
$715,657 26
+2.5 -29
units sold avg sold price
2059 $572,778
1870 $593,727
-9 +4
26 2076 $318,927 34 1060 $1,026,963 32
17 1964 $340,419 18 1002 $1,080,483 29
-35 -5 +7 -47 +6 +5 -9
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
503 $639,536 23
417 $657,540 15
-17 +3 -35
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
1738 $427,927 33
1499 $445,637 21
-14 +4 -36
115
119
+3
$1,028,549 30
$1,016,132 35
-1 +17
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
40 $690,425 13
29 $777,007 19
-28 +13 +46
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
55 $461,578 20
49 $511,620 29
-11 +11 +45
units sold
Alexandria
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Arlington
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Falls Church
MARKET BALANCE
18
single family homes
3 ,7
its sold 1 un
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2019
20
19
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
→
4%
SELLERS
BALANCED
18,007 units sold 2018
$12.9B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2019
6
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong
2018 195 $646,015
2019 220 $669,663
% +13 +4
30
36
+20
256 $394,796 25 76 $262,107 23 533 $1,628,518 57
256 $428,308 17 68 $276,858 19 565 $1,487,453 45
+8.5 -32 -11 +6 -17 +6 -9 -21
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
94 $811,703 38
88 $860,673 27
-7 +6 -29
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
290 $426,421 39
279 $415,567 30
-4 -2.5 -23
units sold avg sold price
Lorton
Single Family avg days on market
McLean
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
7
2018 795
2019 856
% +8
$567,429
$586,232
+3
26
20
-23
units sold avg sold price
540 $409,312
507 $428,087
-6 +4
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
18 115 $251,497
14 113 $272,797
-22 -2 +8
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
19 617 $968,670
14 682 $985,516
-26 +10.5 +2
37
28
-24
182 $637,324
175 $652,398
-4 +2
Townhouse avg days on market
21
38
+33
units sold
120
129
+7.5
$377,527 45
$380,233 22
+1 -51
1548
1609
+4
403,138
$428,052
+4
31
29
-6
1365
1445
+6
$295,043
$312,391
+6
Townhouse avg days on market
25
22
-12
units sold
475
495
+4
$263,758
$264,181
-
31
22
-29
units sold avg sold price
Springfield
Vienna
Single Family avg days on market
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Woodbridge
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong
8
WASHINGTON, D.C.
“
“
The D.C. market showed strong growth across several segments on a Year Over Year basis. Overall unit sales experienced a 2.6% increase despite sporadic unit sale results across several neighborhoods. Average home prices were up 2.5% with town homes delivering the greatest increases in the Capitol Hill, Kalorama, Logan Circle and Shaw neighborhoods. Multi-unit development continues to dominate the D.C. real estate landscape as seen in the significant number of large residential projects underway across the district. Inventory will become less of an issue as these projects reach completion providing more choice for buyers and flattening home prices-a boon for buyers and sellers alike.
2018
2019
%
16 $1,108,063
20 $881,553
+25 -20
Single Family avg days on market
27
27
-
units sold
289
382
+32
$990,293
$1,074,417
+8.5
21 217
21 163
-25
$542,333
$565,940
-4
22 2
23 1
+4.5 -50
$492,500
$1,140,000
+131
Single Family avg days on market
11
52
+372
units sold
11
11
-
$1,013,500
$1,516,282
+50
Townhouse avg days on market
41
22
-46
units sold
175
146
-17
$452,538
$525,056
+16
30
28
-7
2 $2,387,500
1 $1,140,000
-50 -52
Single Family avg days on market
203
52
-74
units sold
15
23
+53
$1,262,550
$1,392,328
+10
Townhouse avg days on market
28
23
-18
units sold
97
108
+11
$438,607
$525,601
+20
32
25
-22
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Downtown
avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Dupont
avg sale price
avg sale price
→
.75%
4
condo & co-op
MARKET BALANCE The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2019
units sold 20 5 26
19
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
SELLERS
4233 units
BALANCED
sold 2018
$2.3B
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) 2019
10
BUYERS
Foggy Bottom/ West End
2018
2019
%
-
2 $995,000 6
-
20 $980,805 37 239 $817,555 44 25
14 $1,000,679 31 270 $709,552 46 24
-30 +2 -16 +13 -13 +5 -4
$2,212,657 125
$2,892,181 87
+31 -30
90
96
+7
$1,701,396 40
$1,624,173 49
-4.5 +22.5
88
88
-
$904,475 54
$836,389 46
-8 -15
9 $4,314,222
7 $1,942,771
-22 -55
167
55
-67
51 $1,237,959 32
19 $1,737,105 47
-63 +40 +47
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
185 $594,368 26
140 $728,756 22
-24 +23 -15
units sold avg sale price
1 $899,000
-
-
6
-
-
32 $1,161,316 36
29 $1,388,254 14
-9 +20 -61
153 $759,159 20
178 $694,079 21
+16 -9 +5
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Georgetown
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Kalorama
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
Logan Circle
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
2018
2019
%
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
3 $1,035,667 4
4 $829,325 26
+33 -20 +550
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
70 $1,057,969 18 125 $519,716 21 2 $585,000 28
76 $1,123,825 18 97 $529,409 31 -
+9 +6 -22 +2 +47 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
44 $959,274 15
57 $1,038,633 24
+30 +8 +60
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
53 $791,453 22
72 $671,310 15
+36 -15 -32
13 $1,873,596 12
23 $2,073,130 38
+77 +11 +217
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
22 $852,586 28
21 $885,434 49
-5 +4 +75
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
82 $470,858 47
75 $474,601 55
-9 +1 +17
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong
12
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
“
“
Montgomery County also turned in a fairly strong performance with the cities of Bethesda, Chevy Chase and Silver Spring as this jurisdiction’s standouts. Average home prices for MoCo were up 2.3%, unit sales up 3.3% and DOM (days on market) down 3%. The year end metrics belie the mixed bag of results each city experienced but the proposed economic development strategy that includes transportation, housing, workforce development and business development portends good things for the future housing market in Montgomery County. Look for 2020 to deliver similar results as those of 2019.
2018
2019
%
796
853
+7
$1,167,011 41
$1,188,678 40
+2 -2
units sold avg sold price
99 $815,002
97 $869,991
-2 +7
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
29 333 $440,841
39 333 $462,642
+34 +5
51 246 $1,417,122
52 290 $1,357,408
+2 +18 -4
Single Family avg days on market
39
38
-3
units sold
27
33
+22
$826,540 23
$903,987 25
+9 +9
159
165
+4
$612,394 68
$651,587 49
+6 -28
471 $1,114,949 49
493 $1,115,179 49
+5 -
87
75
-14
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$813,598 49
$716,444 32
-12 -35
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
8 $898,750 65
14 $842,528 40
+75 -6 -38
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Chevy Chase
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
→ 6
single family homes
6 93
MARKET BALANCE
5%
units sold
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2019
20
19
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold
SELLERS
BALANCED
6594 units sold 2018
$4.9B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2019
14
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong
2018
2019
%
921 $584,675
969 $580,866
+5 -1
30
30
-
units sold avg sold price
324 $547,950
310 $546,163
-4 -
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
31 415 $324,526
33 480 $315,190
+6 +16 -3
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
37 1676 $496,214 30
41 1738 $502,681 29
+11 +4 +1 -3
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
522 $349,964 30
500 $374,272 27
-4 +7 -10
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
857 $217,903 38
830 $231,583 33
-3 +6 -13
units sold avg sold price
Rockville
Silver Spring
Single Family avg days on market
15
get to know the good life.
KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000