Q3 2020 Greater DC Market Report

KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C. Q3 2020

MARKET REPORT

®

A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe third quarter results are in for the Greater DC market and they can only be described as “staggering”. All three jurisdictions in which we operate reported significant increases in avg home prices and unit sales-despite significant inventory shortages across the metro area. September volume in particular contributed significantly to all three jurisdictions with NOVA recording a whopping $1.5B in residential real estate sales-a 58% increase over the same period last year. NOVA avg home price increases climbed to 13.5% YOY. Likewise in September, Wash DC and Montgomery County registered a 7.3% and a 15.7% avg home price increase respectfully over the same period last year.

The Q3 numbers benefitted greatly from the strong sales performance in each of these markets over the past quarter with NOVA posting an 11.7% avg home price increase and a 20% increase in unit sales. Wash DC came in second with an 8.6% avg home price increase and a 26% increase in unit sales. Montgomery County posted strong Q3 numbers as well coming in at a 7.3% avg home price increase and a 13.7% increase in unit sales.

Low interest rates continue to be a driving force in the demand for housing with rates dipping down below 3% and September interest rates according to some analysts being the lowest in recent history with no real substantive conversations about a rate increase for the foreseeable future. However, refi’s may start to slow due to a .50% fee increase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will impose on refi’s starting on Dec 1st. On a $250,000 refi loan this charge would be $1,250. This should not impact purchase loan rates but may provide some incentive to sellers to consider selling vs refinancing their homes.

Moving forward into Q4, the housing market continues to be the bright spot for the economy. We are already seeing a “V”shaped recovery in regards to housing as builder confidence remains strong with buyer demand driving this confidence. The concept of “home” has taken on new importance and we may see a return to demand for larger homes to accommodate the added amenities & entertainment options homebuyers are requesting based on current environment conditions. New construction homebuyers should expect delays in product delivery based on shortfalls of material, labor and lot availability all of which are contributing to lengthening construction delivery times.

In closing, the demand for housing will remain high and the short term outlook is bright as businesses continue to adjust to the Covid pandemic and people move on with their lives. The many factors impacting our industry leaves long term predictability far from certain. Strong demand among millennials who now make up 1/3 of all home buyers, job losses that continue to plague those job sectors where workers are primarily renters and uncertainty as to the impact of distressed homeowners all playing a part on the housing market. And the usual characters of low interest rates, pent up demand, cratered inventory levels and unemployment will continue to play their part in the direction of the Q4 and Q1 2021 housing market as well. It’s a brew of many different ingredients!

- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker

KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS · VIENNA All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS

C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3

DMV

MARKET

ANALYSIS

NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6

ALEXANDRIA

6

ARLINGTON

6

FALLS

7

LORTON

8

LOUDOUN

CHURCH

7

McLEAN

8

S P R I NG F I E L D

8

VIENNA

8

WOODBRIDGE

WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10

CAPITOL

HILL

10

D OW N T OW N

10

D U P O N T

11

F O G G Y

11

G E O RG E T OW N

11

K A L O R A M A

11

L O G A N

C I RC L E

12

M O U N T

P L E A SA N T

12

S H AW

12

W E S L E Y

B O T T O M / W E S T

H E I G H T S

M A RY L A N D 14

B E T H E S DA

14

C H E V Y

14

P O T O M AC

15

P R I NC E

15

R O C K V I L L E

15

SA I N T

15

S I LV E R

C H A S E G E O RG E ’ S

M A RY ’ S S P R I NG

E N D

Q3 MARKET SUMMARY 25 20 15 10

Q3 2020

DAYS ON MARKET

5 0

$ 900,000 $ 800,000 $ 700,000 $ 600,000 $ 500,000 $ 400,000 $ 300,000 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $0

Q3 2020

AVERAGE SALE PRICE

14,000 12,000 10,000

Q3 2020

UNIT SALES

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

“

“

NOVA delivered a sterling performance in Q3. Arlington (+15%), Fairfax (+11.1%), Loudoun (12.3%) and Prince William (10.1%) counties all turned in exceptional performances in avg home sale price growth. Sales volume increases were even more impressive with Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William landing at +36.4%, 28.9%, 12.3% and 29.8% respectfully with both of these metrics contributing to very robust YTD numbers. Historically low inventory levels continue to be impediments to greater sales increases however, we are starting to see small inventory gains in some markets.

2019 117

2020 120

% +3

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$950,499 19

$1,135,548 20

+19 +5

units sold avg sold price

67 $645,061

99 $759,527

+48 +18

13 334 $344,565 15 271 $1,093,610 24

12 424 $433,813 14 347 $1,181,381 24

-8 +27 +26 -7 +28 +8 -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

32 $702,270 13

42 $776,590 8

+31 +11 -38

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

400 $438,529 19

420 $489,603 14

+5 +12 -26

30

36

+20

avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

$992,009 42

$1,130,311 19

+14 -55

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

1 $570,000 35

5 $812,270 6

+400 +43 -83

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

15 $461,765 28

24 $427,740 13

+60 -7 -54

units sold

Alexandria

Arlington

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

units sold

Falls Church

MARKET BALANCE

31 8

single family homes

1

its un

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2020.

sold Q 32

0 02

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

→

23% SELLERS

BALANCED

2589 units sold Q3 2020

$1.01B

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2020

6

BUYERS

units sold avg sold price

2019 75 $664,657

2020 82 $710,194

%

29

24

+9 +7 -17

Lorton

Single Family avg days on market

Loudon Co

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

18 $372,487 9 28 $279,217 14 985 $697,193 33

21 $444,615 14 26 $290,904 11 1197 $778,259 23

+17 +19 +56 -7 +4 -21 +22 +12 -30

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

275 $471,523 17

349 $507,417 10

+27 +8 -41

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

348 $330,394 24

421 $360,493 20

+21 +9 -17

7

2019

2020

%

157

185

+18

$1,489,304

$1,527,586

+3

51

55

+8

8 $810,463

4 $943,750

-50 +16

16 75

13 74

-19 -1

avg sold price

$407,681

$394,690

-3

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

24 217 $579,091 17

26 259 $636,197 12

-8 +19 +10 -29

31

48

-55

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold

$456,664 9 27

$484,068 5 32

+6 -44 +19

avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

$257,811 12 178

$290,356 8 218

+13 -33 +22

$1,016,544 40

$1,068,548 28

+5 -30

14

18

+29

$682,249

$724,378

+6

Townhouse avg days on market

11

10

-9

units sold

34

31

-9

$380,983

$442,439

-16

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

21

12

-43

units sold

459

519

+13

$440,735

$463,444

+5

Single Family avg days on market

23

12

-48

units sold

96

147

+53

avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

$317,053 17

$352,962 10

+11 -41

units sold avg sale price

129 $267,283

154 $305,495

+19 +14

17

14

-18

units sold avg sold price

McLean

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold

Springfield

units sold

Vienna

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price

avg sale price

avg sale price

Woodbridge

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

8

WASHINGTON, D.C.

“

“

Overall, DC delivered a fairly strong performance across most neighborhoods in the district. Q3 sales volume was up 36.4% with average home sale prices up 8.6% and unit sales up 26%. It was a mixed bag of results in September with some neighborhoods showing strong growth in average home price while others showed some decline in that metric thus impacting Q3 numbers. However, YTD numbers continue to be very positive for most neighborhoods with Capitol Hill & Downtown showing slight decline in home prices YTD. Inventory levels continue to improve significantly across most of the district portending positive growth in Q4 and Q1 2021.

2019

2020

%

5 $1,113,900

4 $1,229,500

-20 +10

Single Family avg days on market

33

130

+294

units sold

11

22

+100

$1,186,864

$1,324,205

+12

27 35

22 62

-19 +77

$671,085

$582,641

-13

18 -

31 1

+72 -

avg sold price

-

$665,000

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

2

-

units sold

1

1

-

$360,000

$1,349,000

+275

Townhouse avg days on market

8

4

-50

units sold

41

29

-29

$501,337

$549,193

+10

34

34

-

units sold avg sale price

-

2 $1,237,500

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

55

-

units sold

-

-

-

avg sale price

-

-

-

Townhouse avg days on market

-

-

-

27

27

-

$427,670

$523,663

+22

23

17

-26

units sold avg sold price

Capitol Hill

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

Downtown

avg sold price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Dupont

units sold avg sale price

→

33%

14 2

condo & co-op

MARKET BALANCE

8

its un

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2020.

sold Q 32

0 02

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

SELLERS

1077 units sold Q3 2019

$799M

BALANCED

TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q3 2020

10

BUYERS

Foggy Bottom/ West End

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

Georgetown

Kalorama

2020

%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1 $818,000 68 28 $345,422 32 3

-

-32 +5 -3 +67

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$5,455,000 29

19 $363,817 31 5 $3,828,000 61

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

21 $1,599,984 38

33 $1,692,091 34

+57 +6 -11

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

20 $1,015,614 45

23 $640,685 26

+15 -37 -42

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

1 $1,350,000 0

3 $1,389,333 53

+200 +3 -

-

1 $3,450,000 15

-

28 $695,636 25

35 $680,186 18

+25 -2 -28

-

2 $1,187,450 77

-

1 $1,195,000 13

3 $1,106,333 6

+200 -7 -54

40 $685,634 18

64 $722,512 13

+60 +5 -28

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Logan Circle

2019

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

11

-30 +110

2018

2019

%

1 $565,000 6

1 $280,000 150

-50 +2400

3 $1,306,667 26 21 $462,745 19 -

4 $1,101,750 30 20 $537,864 20 -

+33 -16 +15 -5 +16 +5 -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

1 $861,000 270

1 $580,000 35

-33 -87

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

21 $627,138 14

42 $755,913 20

+100 +21 +43

6 $2,035,833 40

2 $2,025,500 19

-67 -.5 -53

2 $908,750 47

1 $1,175,000 6

-50 +29 -87

Mount Pleasant

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Shaw

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Wesley Heights

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

12

MARYLAND

“

“

Despite significant inventory level declines across Montgomery County, PG County and Saint Mary’s County we’ve still seen strong growth across these markets. Unit sales and average home prices increased significantly for Q3 in all three counties with sales volume being the driving force behind these numbers. Montgomery County sales volume was up 22%, PG County sales volume up 18.1% and Saint Mary’s County sales volume up 30%. Unit sales were also up in all three counties with Saint Mary’s County experiencing a 16.9% increase followed by Montgomery County up 13.7% and PG County up 5.8%. YTD numbers for cities located in MoCo continue to show the strength of the markets in Southern MD.

2019

2020

%

233

246

+6

$1,240,792 38

$1,334,488 26

+8 -32

units sold avg sold price

9 $742,739

9 $853,333

+15

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

17 100 $528,321

28 106 $441,434

+65 +6 -16

56 79 $1,409,611

51 74 $1,474,587

-9 -6 +5

Single Family avg days on market

30

43

+43

units sold

5

-

+20

$1,015,679 62

-

-32 -92

47

47

-

$650,611 40

$525,607 38

-19 -5

141 $1,142,438 34

209 $1,271,015 48

+48 +11 +41

4

7

+75

$1,037,750 55

$695,457 10

-33 -82

6 $870,000 43

8 $840,000 60

+33 -3 +40

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Bethesda

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Chevy Chase

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Potomac

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

21 9

→

12%

7u

nits sold Q3

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2020.

2

0

single family homes

MARKET BALANCE

02

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

SELLERS

BALANCED

1957 units sold Q3 2019

$1.8B

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2020

14

BUYERS

Prince George’s Co

Rockville

Saint Mary’s Co

2019

2020

%

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

2054 $363,899 34

2040 $405,770 24

-1 +12 -29

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold

219 $308,903 25 368

221 $332,703 20 378

+1 +8 -20 +3

avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$183,589 29 278 $596,143 34

$209,357 35 290 $664,736 23

+14 +21 +4 +12 -32

units sold avg sold price

22 $582,020

30 $591,484

+36 +2

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

30 132 $319,895 37 447 $331,573 46

19 118 $333,655 34 506 $372,203 34

-37 -11 +4 -8 +13 +12 -26

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

14 $253,812 29

30 $276,033 20

+114 +9 -31

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

19 $165,353 53

25 $169,520 11

+32 +3 -79

495

498

+1

$506,482 27

$548,893 16

-9 -41

38

46

+21

$387,868 26

$422,786 13

+9 -50

235

271

+15

$228,369 32

$255,810 35

+12 +9

units sold

Silver Spring

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

15

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KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®

ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610

ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000

TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000

VIENNA 144 CHURCH ST NW VIENNA, VA 22180 703-564-4000