KW Metro Center Q1 2020 Market Report

KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C.

Q1 2020

MARKET REPORT

®

A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe greater Washington D.C. and NOVA markets turned in a sterling performance by any metric used to measure the health of a housing market. Q1 produced some of the strongest single and double digit increases in both home prices and the number of units sold that we’ve seen for some time with NOVA once again delivering the strongest consistent performance. Washington D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County all delivered above expected results with some exceptions in specific neighborhoods. Fairfax County, Loudoun County and several other cities in the Northern Virginia market performed exceptionally well across all measurements used to rate performance.

Sellers in all four jurisdictions benefited greatly from pent up demand and low interest rates with NOVA registering a 9.8 % increase in home price increases for March and 9.9% for Q1 overall. Home price increases dominated the landscape as almost every county and city experienced strong growth in this category. In conjunction, unit sales for Q1 in NOVA (+5%), DC (+16%), MoCo (+21%) and PG County (+2.7%) demonstrated just how strong the housing demand was across these jurisdictions. The 2020 housing market got off to a roaring start but unpredictability will dominate the market at least in the short term.

In coming months the housing market will be somewhat unpredictable based largely on the impact of COVID-19.

International travel restrictions, uncertainty in the employment sector and the financial capacity of buyers will all play a role in a return to normalization in the housing market. Wealthier sellers may be better suited to survive the impact of the virus and this segment of the housing market could see a quicker rebound while the mid-range buyer may have depleted their savings for everyday expenses during this time frame. Caution will be the watch word as uncertainty will prevail over the confidence consumers have experienced over the past several years.

2020 could prove to be the most challenging year yet for buyers. Not because of what they can afford but rather what they can’t find. Inventory levels of existing homes will continue to fall while home prices are forecasted to continue their rise albeit at a slower rate than we’ve seen over the past several years. On a brighter note, housing starts will likely reach close to 1 Million units, the highest since 2007 and new home construction prices are expected to be flat as builders turn their attention to smaller and more affordable homes. Millennials who comprise 37% of home buyers, and make up the bulk of the entry to mid-range price point market, should be the primary benefactors from the focus builders are placing on this segment of the housing market.

No one could have anticipated the arrival of a pandemic to our shores, nor the impact it has had on our housing market and thus driving fundamental changes in the way business has been conducted in the past. Surely, there will be similarities but we will see massive change(s) in the way we market properties, show properties and execute the lender and title aspects of the process. Digital platforms will continue to accelerate the development of electronic programs to conduct the underlying process of purchasing a home and could have a profound effect on the ‘brick and mortar” brokerage offices around the nation. It’s a brand new world out there and there will be additional unforeseen changes in our market so be prepared to act quickly in 2020!

Jim Lyons Associate Broker KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS on April 7, 2020.

Page 3, 9 & 13 photo credit to Red Door Metro. Page 5 photo credit to Jacob Hamilton.

C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3

DMV

MARKET

ANALYSIS

NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6

ALEXANDRIA

6

ARLINGTON

6

FALLS

7

LORTON

7

LOUDON

CHURCH COUNTY

8

McLEAN

8

S P R I NG F I E L D

8

VIENNA

8

WOODBRIDGE

WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10

CAPITOL

10

D OW N T OW N

HILL

10

D U P O N T

11

F O G G Y

11

G E O RG E T OW N

11

K A L O R A M A

11

L O G A N

C I RC L E

12

M O U N T

P L E A SA N T

B O T T O M / W E S T

12

S H AW

12

W E S L E Y

E N D

H E I G H T S

M A RY L A N D 14

B E T H E S DA

14

C H E V Y

14

P O T O M AC

15

P R I NC E

15

R O C K V I L L E

15

S I LV E R

C H A S E G E O RG E ’ S S P R I NG

C O U N T Y

Q1 2020 MARKET SUMMARY

Q1 2020 DAYS ON MARKET

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

$ 900,000 $ 800,000 $ 700,000 $ 600,000 $ 500,000 $ 400,000 $ 300,000 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $0

Q1 2020

AVERAGE SALE PRICE

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000

Q1 2020

UNIT SALES

1,500 1,000 500 0

4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

“

“

Northern Virginia recorded a very strong March and first quarter in both home price increases and unit sales. Despite the continued decline in inventory levels, unit sales overall enjoyed a strong performance with a 12.6% increase in March and a 5.5% increase YOY in the first quarter. In particular, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties produced outstanding results in both categories as reflected in their recorded numbers. Homes continue to be snapped up as the (DOM) days on market showed decreases in the mid 20% range across all cities in NOVA.

2019 350

2020 334

% -4.5

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$674,116 38

$765,178 29

+13.5 -24

units sold avg sold price

367 $587,399

342 $634,796

-7 +8

25 433 $337,374 28 206 $1,036,260 37

16 424 $340,236 18 175 $1,400,171 30

-36 -2 +1 -36 -15 +35 -19

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

83 $675,883 23

85 $698,030 16

+2 +3 -30

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

311 $415,680 31

293 $472,891 21

-6 +14 +32

22

10

-55

avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

$918,552 49

$986,303 17

+7 -65

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

5 $609,880 33

6 $518,388 8

+20 -15 -76

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

6 $451,150 40

10 $438,534 11

+67 -3 -73

units sold

Alexandria

Arlington

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

units sold

Falls Church

MARKET BALANCE

3,4 9

nits sold Q1 u 2 2

0

single family homes

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2020

02

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

→

7% SELLERS

BALANCED

3,267 units sold Q1 2019

$2.2B

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2020

6

BUYERS

Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong

2019 39

2020 34

% -13

Lorton

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$670,472 60

$718,081 58

+7 -3

Loudon County

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

36 $416,243 28 11 $258,536 32 551 $675,069 45

57 $461,156 21 11 $287,455 24 591 $708,526 34

+58 +11 -25 +11 -25 + +5 -24

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

556 $446,223 22

515 $462,608 19

-7 +4 -14

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

209 $317,951 24

220 $350,007 24

+5 +10 -

units sold

7

2019

2020

%

93

110

+18

$1,399,039

$1,607,894

+15

50

51

+2

16 $895,250

21 $853,738

+31 -5

48 49

65 53

+35 +8

avg sold price

$370,571

$472,614

+28

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

48 161 $579,716 34

23 134 $586,884 28

-52 -17 +1 -18

106

115

+8.5

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold

$406,885 21 31

$443,166 14 22

+9 -33 -29

avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

$259,319 23 128

$296,109 8 146

+14 -65 +14

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$936,265 44

$988,641 50

+6 +14

25

26

+4

$617,174

$631,527

+2

Townhouse avg days on market

37

23

-38

units sold

27

17

-37

$374,126

$366,647

-2

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

32

19

-41

units sold

295

275

-7

$412,840

$457,573

+11

Single Family avg days on market

46

31

-33

units sold

281

260

-7

avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

$304,554 32

$315,118 25

+3 -22

units sold avg sale price

99 $245,241

91 $260,647

-8 -6

30

16

-47

units sold avg sold price

McLean

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold

Springfield

units sold

Vienna

units sold avg sold price

avg sale price

avg sale price

Woodbridge

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

8

WASHINGTON, D.C.

“

“

The DC market also performed well during the first quarter of 2020. Home prices continued to rise across most neighborhoods with few exceptions. Unit sales, as well, delivered a strong performance up 21.2% for March and 16.1% for Q1. It appears there was a bit of a fall off in unit sales in the later half of March (possibly Covid-19 inspired) but had little effect on the overall numbers in general. As with all jurisdictions, (DOM) days on market continue to decrease at a very rapid clip.

2019

2020

%

6 $814,150

-

-

Single Family avg days on market

34

-

-

units sold

87

71

-18

$1,041,292

$1,101,609

+6

23 31

34 44

+48 +42

$525,436

$640,118

+22

31 -

28 -

-10 -

avg sold price

-

-

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

-

-

units sold

1

6

+500

$960,000

$732,983

-24

Townhouse avg days on market

4

33

+725

units sold

32

52

+63

$495,744

$551,840

+11

30

34

+13

units sold avg sale price

-

-

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

-

-

units sold

6

-

-

$992,383

-

-

Townhouse avg days on market

18

-

-

units sold

24

17

-29

$535,568

$546,204

+2

25

20

-20

units sold avg sold price

Capitol Hill

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

Downtown

avg sold price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Dupont

avg sale price

avg sale price

1,0 4

→

24%

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2020

nits sold Q1 u 2 2

0

condo & co-op

MARKET BALANCE

02

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

SELLERS

842 units sold Q1 2019

$526M

BALANCED

TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q1 2020

10

BUYERS

2019

2020

%

-

-

-

-

Foggy Bottom/ West End

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Georgetown

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

1 $975,000 18 56 $829,468 48 4 $4,239,250 156

1 $1,180,000 7 42 $827,786 55 4 $4,058,000 15

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

19 $1,892,737 77

22 $1,312,045 33

+16

17 $599,412 67

16 $1,049,125 59

-6

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

2 $2,229,750 3

5 $2,544,800 30

+150

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

3 $1,362,333 136

8 $1,710,125 75

+167

26 $657,162 39

33 $698,621 46

+27

-

-

-

7 $1,436,843 10

10 $1,226,649 32

+43

30 $686,296 23

32 $829,200 25

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Kalorama

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Logan Circle

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

11

+21 -61 -25 +15 -4 -90 -31 -57 +75 -12 +14 +900 +26 -45 +6 +18 -15 +220 +7 +21 +9

2019

2020

%

1 $2,100,000 81

-

-

Mount Pleasant

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

11 $1,094,364 19 23 $601,758 57 -

15 $1,074,000 22 23 $584,804 29 1 $799,900 0

+36 -2

Shaw

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

7 $1,028,429 20

14 $1,053,957 49

+100

14 $664,311 13

15 $765,247 15

+7

5 $2,298,500 57

5 $1,866,400 60

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

4 $924,125 103

3 $991,000 92

-25

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

16 $557,772 86

10 $552,495 68

-38

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Wesley Heights

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro

12

-

+16 -3 -49 +59 +277 +15 +15 -19 +5 +7 -11 -1 -21

MARYLAND

“

“

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties got off to a very good start with one of their strongest showings in the housing market for Q1 2020 continuing the trend set from its previous performance for year ending 2019. Every city showed strong home price increases and unit sales with the exception of Bethesda, which had a slight decline in home prices (-.9%) and unit sales (-9.5%). Prince George’s County, Chevy Chase and Rockville had double digit increases in home prices while unit sales were strong across most cities in Montgomery County.

2019

2020

%

138

133

-4

$1,188,652 53

$1,208,531 45

+2

units sold avg sold price

20 $868,548

13 $883,923

-35

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

55 67 $442,837

36 68 $399,825

-35 +1.5

69 49 $1,316,830

48 56 $1,527,947

-30 +14

Single Family avg days on market

62

55

-11

units sold

3

11

+267

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

$925,698 7

$1,227,600 76

+33

units sold avg sale price

32 $535,030

33 $645,294

+21

72

63

-12.5

76 $1,116,804 77

105 $1,113,127 63

+38

18 $683,278 35

17 $809,546 35

-6

2 $1,199,250 11

1 $550,000 29

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Bethesda

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Chevy Chase

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Potomac

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

→ 1,2 6

+16

+985 +3

-33 -18 +18 -50 -54 +164

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2020

2

0

single family homes

nits sold Q1

-10

MARKET BALANCE

19%

5u

+2

02

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

-15

SELLERS

BALANCED

1,063 units sold Q1 2019

$755M

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2020

14

BUYERS

Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro

2019

2020

%

1523

1474

$332,263 48

$368,030 43

-3 +11

622

556

-11

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

$283,343 43 281 $175,537

$294,660 33 268 $177,572

+4 -23 -5 +1

Rockville

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

38 153 $566,032 35

39 181 $604,973 32

+3 +18 +7 -9

Silver Spring

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

58 $528,723 42 99 $284,400 59 258 $483,149 42

88 $571,791 41 93 $316,185 37 307 $509,878 29

+52 +8 -2 -6 +11 -37 +19 -6 -31

75

96

+28

$387,474 37

$361,787 36

-7 -3

165

179

+8

$217,618 44

$252,368 37

+16 -16

units sold

Prince George’s

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

15

-10

TOGETHER, WE ARE STRONGER SUPPORT OUR FRONTLINE WORKERS

FrontYards2FrontLines.com Donate today to provide food and supplies for frontline workers in our community.

get to know the good life.

KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®

ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610

ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 AR:LINGTON, VA 22201 703-224-6000

TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000