KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C.
Q1 2020
MARKET REPORT
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe greater Washington D.C. and NOVA markets turned in a sterling performance by any metric used to measure the health of a housing market. Q1 produced some of the strongest single and double digit increases in both home prices and the number of units sold that we’ve seen for some time with NOVA once again delivering the strongest consistent performance. Washington D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County all delivered above expected results with some exceptions in specific neighborhoods. Fairfax County, Loudoun County and several other cities in the Northern Virginia market performed exceptionally well across all measurements used to rate performance. Sellers in all four jurisdictions benefited greatly from pent up demand and low interest rates with NOVA registering a 9.8 % increase in home price increases for March and 9.9% for Q1 overall. Home price increases dominated the landscape as almost every county and city experienced strong growth in this category. In conjunction, unit sales for Q1 in NOVA (+5%), DC (+16%), MoCo (+21%) and PG County (+2.7%) demonstrated just how strong the housing demand was across these jurisdictions. The 2020 housing market got off to a roaring start but unpredictability will dominate the market at least in the short term. In coming months the housing market will be somewhat unpredictable based largely on the impact of COVID-19. International travel restrictions, uncertainty in the employment sector and the financial capacity of buyers will all play a role in a return to normalization in the housing market. Wealthier sellers may be better suited to survive the impact of the virus and this segment of the housing market could see a quicker rebound while the mid-range buyer may have depleted their savings for everyday expenses during this time frame. Caution will be the watch word as uncertainty will prevail over the confidence consumers have experienced over the past several years. 2020 could prove to be the most challenging year yet for buyers. Not because of what they can afford but rather what they can’t find. Inventory levels of existing homes will continue to fall while home prices are forecasted to continue their rise albeit at a slower rate than we’ve seen over the past several years. On a brighter note, housing starts will likely reach close to 1 Million units, the highest since 2007 and new home construction prices are expected to be flat as builders turn their attention to smaller and more affordable homes. Millennials who comprise 37% of home buyers, and make up the bulk of the entry to mid-range price point market, should be the primary benefactors from the focus builders are placing on this segment of the housing market. No one could have anticipated the arrival of a pandemic to our shores, nor the impact it has had on our housing market and thus driving fundamental changes in the way business has been conducted in the past. Surely, there will be similarities but we will see massive change(s) in the way we market properties, show properties and execute the lender and title aspects of the process. Digital platforms will continue to accelerate the development of electronic programs to conduct the underlying process of purchasing a home and could have a profound effect on the ‘brick and mortar” brokerage offices around the nation. It’s a brand new world out there and there will be additional unforeseen changes in our market so be prepared to act quickly in 2020! Jim Lyons Associate Broker KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS on April 7, 2020. Page 3, 9 & 13 photo credit to Red Door Metro. Page 5 photo credit to Jacob Hamilton.
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
7
LOUDON
CHURCH COUNTY
8
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
10
D OW N T OW N
HILL
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
B O T T O M / W E S T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
E N D
H E I G H T S
M A RY L A N D 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
P R I NC E
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E G E O RG E ’ S S P R I NG
C O U N T Y
Q1 2020 MARKET SUMMARY
Q1 2020 DAYS ON MARKET
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
$ 900,000 $ 800,000 $ 700,000 $ 600,000 $ 500,000 $ 400,000 $ 300,000 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $0
Q1 2020
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000
Q1 2020
UNIT SALES
1,500 1,000 500 0
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
Northern Virginia recorded a very strong March and first quarter in both home price increases and unit sales. Despite the continued decline in inventory levels, unit sales overall enjoyed a strong performance with a 12.6% increase in March and a 5.5% increase YOY in the first quarter. In particular, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties produced outstanding results in both categories as reflected in their recorded numbers. Homes continue to be snapped up as the (DOM) days on market showed decreases in the mid 20% range across all cities in NOVA.
2019 350
2020 334
% -4.5
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$674,116 38
$765,178 29
+13.5 -24
units sold avg sold price
367 $587,399
342 $634,796
-7 +8
25 433 $337,374 28 206 $1,036,260 37
16 424 $340,236 18 175 $1,400,171 30
-36 -2 +1 -36 -15 +35 -19
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
83 $675,883 23
85 $698,030 16
+2 +3 -30
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
311 $415,680 31
293 $472,891 21
-6 +14 +32
22
10
-55
avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
$918,552 49
$986,303 17
+7 -65
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
5 $609,880 33
6 $518,388 8
+20 -15 -76
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
6 $451,150 40
10 $438,534 11
+67 -3 -73
units sold
Alexandria
Arlington
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
units sold
Falls Church
MARKET BALANCE
3,4 9
nits sold Q1 u 2 2
0
single family homes
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2020
02
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
→
7% SELLERS
BALANCED
3,267 units sold Q1 2019
$2.2B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2020
6
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of Shepard Fong
2019 39
2020 34
% -13
Lorton
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$670,472 60
$718,081 58
+7 -3
Loudon County
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
36 $416,243 28 11 $258,536 32 551 $675,069 45
57 $461,156 21 11 $287,455 24 591 $708,526 34
+58 +11 -25 +11 -25 + +5 -24
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
556 $446,223 22
515 $462,608 19
-7 +4 -14
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
209 $317,951 24
220 $350,007 24
+5 +10 -
units sold
7
2019
2020
%
93
110
+18
$1,399,039
$1,607,894
+15
50
51
+2
16 $895,250
21 $853,738
+31 -5
48 49
65 53
+35 +8
avg sold price
$370,571
$472,614
+28
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
48 161 $579,716 34
23 134 $586,884 28
-52 -17 +1 -18
106
115
+8.5
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
$406,885 21 31
$443,166 14 22
+9 -33 -29
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
$259,319 23 128
$296,109 8 146
+14 -65 +14
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$936,265 44
$988,641 50
+6 +14
25
26
+4
$617,174
$631,527
+2
Townhouse avg days on market
37
23
-38
units sold
27
17
-37
$374,126
$366,647
-2
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
32
19
-41
units sold
295
275
-7
$412,840
$457,573
+11
Single Family avg days on market
46
31
-33
units sold
281
260
-7
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$304,554 32
$315,118 25
+3 -22
units sold avg sale price
99 $245,241
91 $260,647
-8 -6
30
16
-47
units sold avg sold price
McLean
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
Springfield
units sold
Vienna
units sold avg sold price
avg sale price
avg sale price
Woodbridge
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
8
WASHINGTON, D.C.
“
“
The DC market also performed well during the first quarter of 2020. Home prices continued to rise across most neighborhoods with few exceptions. Unit sales, as well, delivered a strong performance up 21.2% for March and 16.1% for Q1. It appears there was a bit of a fall off in unit sales in the later half of March (possibly Covid-19 inspired) but had little effect on the overall numbers in general. As with all jurisdictions, (DOM) days on market continue to decrease at a very rapid clip.
2019
2020
%
6 $814,150
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
34
-
-
units sold
87
71
-18
$1,041,292
$1,101,609
+6
23 31
34 44
+48 +42
$525,436
$640,118
+22
31 -
28 -
-10 -
avg sold price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
1
6
+500
$960,000
$732,983
-24
Townhouse avg days on market
4
33
+725
units sold
32
52
+63
$495,744
$551,840
+11
30
34
+13
units sold avg sale price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
6
-
-
$992,383
-
-
Townhouse avg days on market
18
-
-
units sold
24
17
-29
$535,568
$546,204
+2
25
20
-20
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Downtown
avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Dupont
avg sale price
avg sale price
1,0 4
→
24%
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2020
nits sold Q1 u 2 2
0
condo & co-op
MARKET BALANCE
02
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
SELLERS
842 units sold Q1 2019
$526M
BALANCED
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q1 2020
10
BUYERS
2019
2020
%
-
-
-
-
Foggy Bottom/ West End
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Georgetown
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
1 $975,000 18 56 $829,468 48 4 $4,239,250 156
1 $1,180,000 7 42 $827,786 55 4 $4,058,000 15
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
19 $1,892,737 77
22 $1,312,045 33
+16
17 $599,412 67
16 $1,049,125 59
-6
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
2 $2,229,750 3
5 $2,544,800 30
+150
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
3 $1,362,333 136
8 $1,710,125 75
+167
26 $657,162 39
33 $698,621 46
+27
-
-
-
7 $1,436,843 10
10 $1,226,649 32
+43
30 $686,296 23
32 $829,200 25
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Kalorama
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Logan Circle
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
+21 -61 -25 +15 -4 -90 -31 -57 +75 -12 +14 +900 +26 -45 +6 +18 -15 +220 +7 +21 +9
2019
2020
%
1 $2,100,000 81
-
-
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
11 $1,094,364 19 23 $601,758 57 -
15 $1,074,000 22 23 $584,804 29 1 $799,900 0
+36 -2
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
7 $1,028,429 20
14 $1,053,957 49
+100
14 $664,311 13
15 $765,247 15
+7
5 $2,298,500 57
5 $1,866,400 60
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
4 $924,125 103
3 $991,000 92
-25
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
16 $557,772 86
10 $552,495 68
-38
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
12
-
+16 -3 -49 +59 +277 +15 +15 -19 +5 +7 -11 -1 -21
MARYLAND
“
“
Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties got off to a very good start with one of their strongest showings in the housing market for Q1 2020 continuing the trend set from its previous performance for year ending 2019. Every city showed strong home price increases and unit sales with the exception of Bethesda, which had a slight decline in home prices (-.9%) and unit sales (-9.5%). Prince George’s County, Chevy Chase and Rockville had double digit increases in home prices while unit sales were strong across most cities in Montgomery County.
2019
2020
%
138
133
-4
$1,188,652 53
$1,208,531 45
+2
units sold avg sold price
20 $868,548
13 $883,923
-35
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
55 67 $442,837
36 68 $399,825
-35 +1.5
69 49 $1,316,830
48 56 $1,527,947
-30 +14
Single Family avg days on market
62
55
-11
units sold
3
11
+267
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
$925,698 7
$1,227,600 76
+33
units sold avg sale price
32 $535,030
33 $645,294
+21
72
63
-12.5
76 $1,116,804 77
105 $1,113,127 63
+38
18 $683,278 35
17 $809,546 35
-6
2 $1,199,250 11
1 $550,000 29
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Chevy Chase
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
→ 1,2 6
+16
+985 +3
-33 -18 +18 -50 -54 +164
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2020
2
0
single family homes
nits sold Q1
-10
MARKET BALANCE
19%
5u
+2
02
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
-15
SELLERS
BALANCED
1,063 units sold Q1 2019
$755M
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2020
14
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
2019
2020
%
1523
1474
$332,263 48
$368,030 43
-3 +11
622
556
-11
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
$283,343 43 281 $175,537
$294,660 33 268 $177,572
+4 -23 -5 +1
Rockville
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
38 153 $566,032 35
39 181 $604,973 32
+3 +18 +7 -9
Silver Spring
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
58 $528,723 42 99 $284,400 59 258 $483,149 42
88 $571,791 41 93 $316,185 37 307 $509,878 29
+52 +8 -2 -6 +11 -37 +19 -6 -31
75
96
+28
$387,474 37
$361,787 36
-7 -3
165
179
+8
$217,618 44
$252,368 37
+16 -16
units sold
Prince George’s
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
15
-10
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