KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.
MARKET REPORT Q2 2019
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe second quarter housing results for the NOVA, Washington, D.C. and Montgomery County jurisdictions are in and the results show a strong market restrained only by the continued lack of inventory. The frenetic early spring market continued its march straight into the early summer selling season with overall strong unit sales (relative to available inventory) and moderate sale price increases. Two of the three jurisdictions showed avg sale price increases with NOVA leading the way-up 3% and Montgomery County up 1%. Washington, D.C. fell short with a 2.5% decrease. Sellers continue to enjoy the benefits of this market putting them in prime negotiating position resulting in full price offers, short selling times and strong buyer competition for their properties. Going forward into 2019 and beyond, there are many factors (both negative and positive) that may be predictive of what the housing market has in store for buyers and sellers. The depressed inventory levels are playing a major factor in the Greater DC market constraining unit sales but also pushing up pricing on available homes, thereby freezing out some potential buyers. The current forecast for available homes have recently been revised for the NOVA markets reflecting significant declines that could have a debilitating effect on what could be an otherwise very robust housing market. The housing shortages can be attributed to several factors, none of which will change in the short term. Sluggish new construction levels, competition between boomers and millennials (vying for the same homes) and strong investor interest have further exacerbated the low inventory issue. In addition, a booming economy, historically low unemployment, and millennials entering prime home buying years have put additional pressure on available homes making our housing market extremely competitive. Finally, the “Amazon Effect”, whereby homeowners are choosing to rent their homes instead of selling, has also made its impact felt. Inventory levels will continue to be the bane of our housing market. Still, 2019 portends many positive factors for our housing market. The influx of high tech companies, investment in educational infrastructure, gains in high paying professional jobs and no sign of declining buyer interest will continue to make our housing market the envy of many other housing markets. Lastly, local investment in transportation modes across the region as well as the on going redevelopment projects will continue to be an attractive factor for those companies looking to relocate or expand. It’s been a wild ride so far this year, let’s hope it continues!
- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS Front Cover Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
CHURCH
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
10
D OW N T OW N
HILL
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
B O T T O M / W E S T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
H E I G H T S
M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E
S P R I NG
E N D
MARKET SUMMARY
Q2 2019
DAYS ON MARKET
Q2 2019
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
Q2 2019
UNIT SALES
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
Northern Virginia continues to be the stand out in an otherwise turbulent housing market. The Q2 results show a 3% increase in avg sold price but experienced a 2.3% decline in unit sales despite inventory levels being down almost -21% for the quarter. This market is ready for explosive growth given the influx of big tech companies, investment in educational infrastructure and an unemployment rate just below 3%. Moderately priced homes are being snatched up as quickly as they come on the market and the demand is creating an environment of full price offers and the waiving of common contingencies.
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
%
611 $706,932
559 $731,329
-9 +3
Single Family avg days on market
25
30
+20
units sold
655
607
-7
avg sold price
$570,810
$609,203
+7
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
19 579 $316,878
19 594 $337,778
+3 +7
31 332 $1,037,612
22 323 $1,083,989
-29 -3 +4
Single Family avg days on market
27
33
+22
units sold
130
128
-2
$605,619 15
$641,210 19
+6 +27
540
440
-19
$436,185 26
$457,232 26
+5 -
246
268
+9
avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
$768,077 23
$808,836 29
+5 +26
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
77 $624,198 16
62 $670,324 17
-19 +7 +6
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
176 $294,929 29
168 $315,854 27
-5 +7 -7
units sold avg sold price
Alexandria
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Arlington
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
0
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2019
its sold Q2 un 2 8 01
62 1
→
SELLERS
un
20 19
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
.4%
5 618
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Falls Church
its sold Q2
BALANCED
BUYERS
$4.3B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q2 2019
6
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
units sold
Q2 2018 74
Q2 2019 52
% -30
Lorton
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$646,086 20
$682,876 31
+6 +55
McLean
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
85 $410,089 17 21 $287,305 19 184 $1,699,382 45
73 $434,090 19 14 $273,720 12 180 $1,444,912 45
-14 +6 +12 -33 -5 -37 -2 -15 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
28 $874,563 37
27 $791,619 16
-4 -9 -57
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
83 $412,063 21
83 $444,023 38
+8 +81
7
Springfield
Vienna
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
%
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
276 $577,421 18
289 $596,725 21
+5 +3 +17
units sold avg sold price
166 $412,352
168 $433,015
+1 +5
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
12 37 $244,476 16 205 $993,215 38
18 37 $291,078 19 219 $973,719 39
+50 +19 +19 +7 -2 +3
units sold avg sold price
65 $658,372
62 $669,378
-5 +2
15
35
+133
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
33 $364,135 27
45 $382,426 29
+36 +5 +7
units sold avg sale price
473 $419,050
496 $430,084
+5 +3
25
27
+48
417 $295,258 19
430 $315,456 29
+3 +7 +53
145
155
+7
$270,148 26
$268,239 30
+29 +15
Townhouse avg days on market
Woodbridge
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
8
WASHINGTON, DC
“
“
Overall, D.C. saw fairly modest results for Q2. Inventory levels continue to climb with a 5.2% increase over LY. Unit sales increased 4.2%, however the avg sales price saw a decrease of 2.5% demonstrating the fickleness of the housing market overall. Three bedroom attached and detached housing stock showed the strongest price point growth among the myriad of housing types in the D.C. market. With the transition of the H Street corridor and the many residential projects coming on line (improving inventory selection), D.C. is positioned to have a stronger showing in the second half of 2019.
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
%
3 $1,075,000
6 $826,125
+100 -23
Single Family avg days on market
10
23
+130
units sold
87
112
+29
$1,005,779 13 66
$1,099,821 25 61
+9 +92 -8
$520,391 18 1 $675,000
$528,738 25 -
+2 +39 -
12
-
-
2 $1,102,500 6
1 $1,545,000 7
-50 +40 +17
58
41
-29
$493,548 28
$528,791 26
+7 -7
1
-
-
avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
$675,000 12
-
-
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
4 $791,250 14
8 $1,398,250 11
+100 +77 -21
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
26 $506,204 31
37 $556,357 30
+42 +10 -3
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Downtown
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
0
ts sold Q2 un i
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2019
2
9
13 1
→
MARKET BALANCE
01
7
un its
BALANCED
BUYERS
18
SELLERS
20
condo & co-op
4.2%
125
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Dupont
2 sold Q
$716M TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q2 2019
10
Q2 2018 -
Q2 2019 1
% -
avg sold price
-
$1,300,000
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
8
-
units sold
7
1
-85
$923,729 17 71 $719,951
$900,000 30 87 $623,517
-3 +76 +23 -13
27 5
69 2
+155 -60
$2,541,340
$4,211,667
+66
4
11
+175
36 $1,924,083 30
27 $1,507,756 46
-25 -21 +53
26 $744,458 61
24 $664,376 41
-8 -11 -33
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
2 $5,750,000 161
2 $3,350,000 193
-42 +20
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
14 $1,798,892 29
6 $1,324,583 19
-57 -26 -34
42 $623,848 24
48 $792,820 20
+14 +27 -17
-
-
-
8 $1,036,825 10
9 $1,333,018 20
+13 +29 +100
47
64
+36
$753,213 19
$708,908 30
-6 +58
units sold
Foggy Bottom/ West End
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Georgetown
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Kalorama
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Logan Circle
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
%
1
1
-
$1,500,000
$465,000
-69
Single Family avg days on market
0
15
-
units sold
19
26
+37
$1,055,112 20 30 $506,389 17 1 $590,000 9
$1,108,623 28 36 $546,553 40 -
+5 +40 +20 +8 +135 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
15 $89,683 10
21 $1,143,265 13
+40 +30 +30
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
14 $822,839 22
17 $711,100 25
+21 -14 +14
5 $1,825,150 15
6 $1,852,583 46
+20 +1.5 +206
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
3 $863,667 8
7 $793,301 71
+133 -8 +788
units sold avg sale price
21 $474,286
28 $422,740
+33 -11
33
57
+73
units sold avg sold price
Mount Pleasant
Shaw
Wesley Heights
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Condo & Co-op avg days on market Photo Courtesy of Jacob Smith Hamilton
12
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
“
“
The 2nd quarter results for Montgomery County continue to show mixed results over Q2 2018 in the housing metrics used to measure the strength of the market. In Q2 the avg sold price marginally increased by 1% but unit sales continue to lag with a -2.1% decline. Continued shortages of listings hamper the ability of this market to perform in a manner consistent with the rest of the greater D.C. market place. Among the bright spots, Chevy Chase had an exceptionally strong showing in unit sales with a minor increase in avg sales price.
Bethesda
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q2 2018 315 $1,156,520 39
Q2 2019 279 $1,141,713 42
% -11 -1 +8
Chevy Chase
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
28 $801,037 23 96 $442,801 42 82 $1,467,913 28
21 $751,868 43 89 $432,083 53 94 $1,389,313 35
-25 -6 +87 -7 -2 +26 +15 -5 +25
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
7 $712,271 7
9 $865,079 31
+29 +22 +343
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
41 $670,132 56
51 $564,778 62
+24 -16 +11
169 $1,081,795 38
160 $1,107,139 55
-5 +2 +45
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
33 $751,488 32
24 $651,925 35
-27 -13 +9
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
6 $851,667 58
3 $697,300 88
-50 -18 +52
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
→
nits sold Q2 u 2 8
9
22 5
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2019
01 SELLERS
un
20 18
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
1.4%
7 222
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
Potomac
its sold Q2
BALANCED
BUYERS
$1.6B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q2 2019
14
Photo Courtesy of Jacob Hamilton
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
%
Rockville
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
288 $599,273 23
305 $597,469 31
+6 +35
Silver Spring
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
108 $553,213 23 118 $314,614 32 529 $511,192 21
87 $559,093 34 142 $324,961 43 552 $513,922 33
-19 +1 +48 +20 +3 +34 +4 +57
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
149 $354,648 24
144 $373,797 33
-3 +5 +38
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
258 $226,348 40
232 $236,069 39
-10 +4 -2.5
15
Photos Courtesy of KW Metro Center Alexandria
KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000