KW Metro Center Q2 Market Report

KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.

MARKET REPORT Q2 2019

®

A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe second quarter housing results for the NOVA, Washington, D.C. and Montgomery County jurisdictions are in and the results show a strong market restrained only by the continued lack of inventory. The frenetic early spring market continued its march straight into the early summer selling season with overall strong unit sales (relative to available inventory) and moderate sale price increases. Two of the three jurisdictions showed avg sale price increases with NOVA leading the way-up 3% and Montgomery County up 1%. Washington, D.C. fell short with a 2.5% decrease. Sellers continue to enjoy the benefits of this market putting them in prime negotiating position resulting in full price offers, short selling times and strong buyer competition for their properties.

Going forward into 2019 and beyond, there are many factors (both negative and positive) that may be predictive of what the housing market has in store for buyers and sellers. The depressed inventory levels are playing a major factor in the Greater DC market constraining unit sales but also pushing up pricing on available homes, thereby freezing out some potential buyers. The current forecast for available homes have recently been revised for the NOVA markets reflecting significant declines that could have a debilitating effect on what could be an otherwise very robust housing market.

The housing shortages can be attributed to several factors, none of which will change in the short term. Sluggish new construction levels, competition between boomers and millennials (vying for the same homes) and strong investor interest have further exacerbated the low inventory issue. In addition, a booming economy, historically low unemployment, and millennials entering prime home buying years have put additional pressure on available homes making our housing market extremely competitive. Finally, the “Amazon Effect”, whereby homeowners are choosing to rent their homes instead of selling, has also made its impact felt. Inventory levels will continue to be the bane of our housing market.

Still, 2019 portends many positive factors for our housing market. The influx of high tech companies, investment in educational infrastructure, gains in high paying professional jobs and no sign of declining buyer interest will continue to make our housing market the envy of many other housing markets. Lastly, local investment in transportation modes across the region as well as the on going redevelopment projects will continue to be an attractive factor for those companies looking to relocate or expand. It’s been a wild ride so far this year, let’s hope it continues!

- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker

KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS Front Cover Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro

C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3

DMV

MARKET

ANALYSIS

NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6

ALEXANDRIA

6

ARLINGTON

6

FALLS

7

LORTON

CHURCH

7

McLEAN

8

S P R I NG F I E L D

8

VIENNA

8

WOODBRIDGE

WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10

CAPITOL

10

D OW N T OW N

HILL

10

D U P O N T

11

F O G G Y

11

G E O RG E T OW N

11

K A L O R A M A

11

L O G A N

C I RC L E

12

M O U N T

P L E A SA N T

B O T T O M / W E S T

12

S H AW

12

W E S L E Y

H E I G H T S

M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14

B E T H E S DA

14

C H E V Y

14

P O T O M AC

15

R O C K V I L L E

15

S I LV E R

C H A S E

S P R I NG

E N D

MARKET SUMMARY

Q2 2019

DAYS ON MARKET

Q2 2019

AVERAGE SALE PRICE

Q2 2019

UNIT SALES

4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

“

“

Northern Virginia continues to be the stand out in an otherwise turbulent housing market.

The Q2 results show a 3% increase in avg sold price but experienced a 2.3% decline in unit sales despite inventory levels being down almost -21% for the quarter. This market is ready for explosive growth given the influx of big tech companies, investment in educational infrastructure and an unemployment rate just below 3%. Moderately priced homes are being snatched up as quickly as they come on the market and the demand is creating an environment of full price offers and the waiving of common contingencies.

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

%

611 $706,932

559 $731,329

-9 +3

Single Family avg days on market

25

30

+20

units sold

655

607

-7

avg sold price

$570,810

$609,203

+7

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

19 579 $316,878

19 594 $337,778

+3 +7

31 332 $1,037,612

22 323 $1,083,989

-29 -3 +4

Single Family avg days on market

27

33

+22

units sold

130

128

-2

$605,619 15

$641,210 19

+6 +27

540

440

-19

$436,185 26

$457,232 26

+5 -

246

268

+9

avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

$768,077 23

$808,836 29

+5 +26

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

77 $624,198 16

62 $670,324 17

-19 +7 +6

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

176 $294,929 29

168 $315,854 27

-5 +7 -7

units sold avg sold price

Alexandria

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Arlington

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

0

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2019

its sold Q2 un 2 8 01

62 1

→

SELLERS

un

20 19

single family homes

MARKET BALANCE

.4%

5 618

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Falls Church

its sold Q2

BALANCED

BUYERS

$4.3B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q2 2019

6

Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro

units sold

Q2 2018 74

Q2 2019 52

% -30

Lorton

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$646,086 20

$682,876 31

+6 +55

McLean

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

85 $410,089 17 21 $287,305 19 184 $1,699,382 45

73 $434,090 19 14 $273,720 12 180 $1,444,912 45

-14 +6 +12 -33 -5 -37 -2 -15 -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

28 $874,563 37

27 $791,619 16

-4 -9 -57

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

83 $412,063 21

83 $444,023 38

+8 +81

7

Springfield

Vienna

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

%

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

276 $577,421 18

289 $596,725 21

+5 +3 +17

units sold avg sold price

166 $412,352

168 $433,015

+1 +5

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

12 37 $244,476 16 205 $993,215 38

18 37 $291,078 19 219 $973,719 39

+50 +19 +19 +7 -2 +3

units sold avg sold price

65 $658,372

62 $669,378

-5 +2

15

35

+133

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

33 $364,135 27

45 $382,426 29

+36 +5 +7

units sold avg sale price

473 $419,050

496 $430,084

+5 +3

25

27

+48

417 $295,258 19

430 $315,456 29

+3 +7 +53

145

155

+7

$270,148 26

$268,239 30

+29 +15

Townhouse avg days on market

Woodbridge

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro

8

WASHINGTON, DC

“

“

Overall, D.C. saw fairly modest results for Q2. Inventory levels continue to climb with a 5.2% increase over LY. Unit sales increased 4.2%, however the avg sales price saw a decrease of 2.5% demonstrating the fickleness of the housing market overall. Three bedroom attached and detached housing stock showed the strongest price point growth among the myriad of housing types in the D.C. market. With the transition of the H Street corridor and the many residential projects coming on line (improving inventory selection), D.C. is positioned to have a stronger showing in the second half of 2019.

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

%

3 $1,075,000

6 $826,125

+100 -23

Single Family avg days on market

10

23

+130

units sold

87

112

+29

$1,005,779 13 66

$1,099,821 25 61

+9 +92 -8

$520,391 18 1 $675,000

$528,738 25 -

+2 +39 -

12

-

-

2 $1,102,500 6

1 $1,545,000 7

-50 +40 +17

58

41

-29

$493,548 28

$528,791 26

+7 -7

1

-

-

avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

$675,000 12

-

-

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

4 $791,250 14

8 $1,398,250 11

+100 +77 -21

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

26 $506,204 31

37 $556,357 30

+42 +10 -3

units sold avg sold price

Capitol Hill

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Downtown

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

0

ts sold Q2 un i

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2019

2

9

13 1

→

MARKET BALANCE

01

7

un its

BALANCED

BUYERS

18

SELLERS

20

condo & co-op

4.2%

125

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Dupont

2 sold Q

$716M TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q2 2019

10

Q2 2018 -

Q2 2019 1

% -

avg sold price

-

$1,300,000

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

8

-

units sold

7

1

-85

$923,729 17 71 $719,951

$900,000 30 87 $623,517

-3 +76 +23 -13

27 5

69 2

+155 -60

$2,541,340

$4,211,667

+66

4

11

+175

36 $1,924,083 30

27 $1,507,756 46

-25 -21 +53

26 $744,458 61

24 $664,376 41

-8 -11 -33

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

2 $5,750,000 161

2 $3,350,000 193

-42 +20

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

14 $1,798,892 29

6 $1,324,583 19

-57 -26 -34

42 $623,848 24

48 $792,820 20

+14 +27 -17

-

-

-

8 $1,036,825 10

9 $1,333,018 20

+13 +29 +100

47

64

+36

$753,213 19

$708,908 30

-6 +58

units sold

Foggy Bottom/ West End

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Georgetown

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Kalorama

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Logan Circle

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

11

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

%

1

1

-

$1,500,000

$465,000

-69

Single Family avg days on market

0

15

-

units sold

19

26

+37

$1,055,112 20 30 $506,389 17 1 $590,000 9

$1,108,623 28 36 $546,553 40 -

+5 +40 +20 +8 +135 -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

15 $89,683 10

21 $1,143,265 13

+40 +30 +30

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

14 $822,839 22

17 $711,100 25

+21 -14 +14

5 $1,825,150 15

6 $1,852,583 46

+20 +1.5 +206

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

3 $863,667 8

7 $793,301 71

+133 -8 +788

units sold avg sale price

21 $474,286

28 $422,740

+33 -11

33

57

+73

units sold avg sold price

Mount Pleasant

Shaw

Wesley Heights

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Condo & Co-op avg days on market Photo Courtesy of Jacob Smith Hamilton

12

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

“

“

The 2nd quarter results for Montgomery County continue to show mixed results over Q2 2018 in the housing metrics used to measure the strength of the market. In Q2 the avg sold price marginally increased by 1% but unit sales continue to lag with a -2.1% decline. Continued shortages of listings hamper the ability of this market to perform in a manner consistent with the rest of the greater D.C. market place.

Among the bright spots, Chevy Chase had an exceptionally strong showing in unit sales with a minor increase in avg sales price.

Bethesda

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Q2 2018 315 $1,156,520 39

Q2 2019 279 $1,141,713 42

% -11 -1 +8

Chevy Chase

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

28 $801,037 23 96 $442,801 42 82 $1,467,913 28

21 $751,868 43 89 $432,083 53 94 $1,389,313 35

-25 -6 +87 -7 -2 +26 +15 -5 +25

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

7 $712,271 7

9 $865,079 31

+29 +22 +343

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

41 $670,132 56

51 $564,778 62

+24 -16 +11

169 $1,081,795 38

160 $1,107,139 55

-5 +2 +45

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

33 $751,488 32

24 $651,925 35

-27 -13 +9

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

6 $851,667 58

3 $697,300 88

-50 -18 +52

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

→

nits sold Q2 u 2 8

9

22 5

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2019

01 SELLERS

un

20 18

single family homes

MARKET BALANCE

1.4%

7 222

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

Potomac

its sold Q2

BALANCED

BUYERS

$1.6B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q2 2019

14

Photo Courtesy of Jacob Hamilton

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

%

Rockville

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

288 $599,273 23

305 $597,469 31

+6 +35

Silver Spring

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

108 $553,213 23 118 $314,614 32 529 $511,192 21

87 $559,093 34 142 $324,961 43 552 $513,922 33

-19 +1 +48 +20 +3 +34 +4 +57

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

149 $354,648 24

144 $373,797 33

-3 +5 +38

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

258 $226,348 40

232 $236,069 39

-10 +4 -2.5

15

Photos Courtesy of KW Metro Center Alexandria

KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®

ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610

ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000

TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000