KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.
MARKET REPORT Q1 2019
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERSpring has arrived in whirlwind fashion and so has the Q1 2019 housing market in the NOVA, DC and Montgomery County markets. The early rush of anxious buyers can be felt in the frenzied effort to find and buy the most desirable homes resulting in multiple offers, price escalations, waiving contingencies and homes being sold in the shortest time frames in recent history. Highly ranked school districts have become one of the strongest drivers in this market and homes located in these districts are experiencing the highest price appreciation and the quickest sell through. Additionally, a good percentage of homes are being sold before ever coming to market thus reducing the opportunity for the buyer pool currently looking to buy. The Q1 housing metrics across the NOVA, DC and Montgomery County markets showed strong improvement YOY with the exception of unit sales, which were down across all jurisdictions. Inventory levels although depressed continue to rise helping to spur the strong performance the spring market is experiencing. As we have seen in the past, performance varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction with the NOVA market showing the most consistency in the measurements attributable to performance. Although, DC experienced an 8% increase in average sale price, the NOVA cities of Springfield, Lorton and Falls Church delivered the most robust housing numbers in Q1. Expectations remain positive for the Greater DC housing markets as we move into the second quarter of 2019. Consumer confidence, low unemployment and the continued migration of high tech companies into our area will continue to drive demand through the remainder of 2019. Interest rates should continue to remain stable based on external factors such as Brexit and China’s soft economic performance while the Fed continues it’s steady hand managing the money supply also impacting interest rate stability. Lastly, the bond market continues to be one of the safer investments for foreign entities contributing to interest rate stability. However, the continued rise in the national debt has caused some concern on economic growth impacting everything from infrastructure to interest rates. Historically, we have come to depend on the federal government as the largest employer in our area and to some degree this remains true. This is slowly changing as we are seeing the professional and business services sector employment enjoying strong growth in our markets thereby diversifying our work force opportunities. This growth along with the large tech and biotech firms moving to our area portend continued prosperity in the Greater DC market place. In addition, home prices in close proximity to the new Amazon headquaters should see above average gains in price appreciation. Overall, the housing market for the Greater DC market should continue to remain healthy with sellers enjoying steady price appreciation and buyers relying on continued low interest rates and growing inventory levels. - Jim Lyons
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS Front Cover Photo Courtesy of Linda Trinkle Wolf
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
CHURCH
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
HILL
10
D OW N T OW N
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
B O T T O M / W E S T
H E I G H T S
M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E
S P R I NG
E N D
DAYS ON MARKET
Q1 2019 AVERAGE SALE PRICE
Q1 2019 UNIT SALES
Q1 2019
MARKET SUMMARY
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
The Northern Virginia housing market experienced moderate gains in Q1 compared to Q1 2018 in terms of average sales price and marginally increased inventory levels. The average sales price rose 2.3% while unit sales were down -1.7% despite an average inventory decline of -16.4% over this period. Days on Market declined from an average of 43 days in Q1 2018 to 34 days in Q1 2019. In a nutshell, homes sold faster, for more money and home availability improved slightly. The NOVA market continues to exhibit the strength and stability necessary to attract investment, employers and younger workers that will continue to drive the housing market over the course of 2019.
units sold
Q1 2018 345
Q1 2019 348
% +1
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$668,406 48
$670,927 50
+4
units sold avg sold price
378 $564,950
360 $582,908
-5 +3
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
18 431 $312,899 45 190 $999,132 42
37 416 $332,552 44 201 $1,027,096 49
+105 -4 +6 -2 +5 +3 +17
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
96 $647,619 27
84 $662,821 32
-13 +2 +19
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
349 $440,937 46
312 $414,983 42
-11 -6 -9
117
139
+19
avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
$739,169 48
$789,986 43
+7 -10
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
32 $540,967 25
49 $571,361 32
+53 +6 +28
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
118 $261,171 37
109 $284,394 52
-8 +9 +41
Alexandria
Arlington
units sold
→
1.4
01 9
3,2 6
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2019
nits sold Q1 u 2 7
20
un its
BALANCED
BUYERS
18
SELLERS
5
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
1%
3,23
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Falls Church
1 sold Q
$2.16B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2019
6
Photo Courtesy of Linda Trinkle Wolf
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
%
35 $606,029 50
39 $670,472 76
+11 +11 +52
40 $359,445 37 18 $253,161 26 91 $1,629,856 83
35 $411,941 41 11 $258,536 42 90 $1,398,096 67
-13 +15 +11 -39 +2 +62 -1 -14 -19
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
21 $800,138 46
16 $895,250 58
-24 +11 +26
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
66 $389,039 70
49 $370,571 62
-26 -5 -11
Lorton
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
McLean
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
7
Springfield
Vienna
units sold
Q1 2018 126
Q1 2019 158
% +25
avg sold price
$551,972
$580,571
+5
38
47
+24
units sold avg sold price
90 $395,362
104 $407,681
+16 +3
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
31 25 $255,602
38 31 $259,319
+23 +24 +1
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
32 107 $933,601
36 127 $916,766
+13 +19 -2
43
55
+28
25 $623,017
25 $617,174
-1
Townhouse avg days on market
32
43
+34
units sold
15
27
+80
$346,127 48
$374,126 41
+8 -15
280
290
+4
$391,501
$410,293
+5
Single Family avg days on market
43
65
+51
units sold
250
278
+11
$287,928
$314,759
+9
Townhouse avg days on market
31
49
+58
units sold
85
98
+15
$251,560
$283,281
+12
40
44
+10
Single Family avg days on market
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Woodbridge
avg sale price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
8
WASHINGTON, D.C.
“
“
Q1 results for the Washington, D.C. housing market saw a strong rebound in average sale prices from Q1 2018. Confounding this strong performance however, unit sales were down -5.8% while average inventory levels jumped to an average of +7.3% YOY. Attached TH/Row Homes experienced the strongest growth in sales price increases with condos bringing up the rear with lackluster performances in both price and unit sales. Multi-unit development will continue to dominate the DC housing landscape for the foreseeable future and could have a negative effect on the supply side of the market, thereby slowing price appreciation.
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
%
2 $1,772,500
7 $874,986
+250 -51
Single Family avg days on market
21
31
+48
units sold
56
85
+52
$968,218
$1,037,676
+7
35 63
32 31
-9 -51
$585,720
$525,436
-11
17 -
43 -
+153 -
avg sold price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
1
1
-
$2,800,000 183
$960,000 4
-66 -98
25
32
+28
$387,354
$495,744
+28
45
48
+6
1 $4,100,000
-
-
393
-
-
4
6
+50
$1,554,938
$992,383
-36
Townhouse avg days on market
44
28
-36
units sold
21
23
+9
$409,476
$537,288
+31
41
34
-17
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Downtown
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Dupont
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price
avg sale price
MARKET BALANCE
2
u
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2019
sold Q1 nits 2
1.7
8 01
92
→
SELLERS
un
20 19
condo & co-op
9%
842
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
its s d Q1 ol
$444M
BALANCED
BUYERS
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q1 2019
10
Foggy Bottom/ West End
Georgetown
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q1 2018 -
Q1 2019 -
% -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
2 $686,250 28 50 $991,019 44 3
1 $975,000 18 53 $819,042 57 3
-50 +42 -36 +6 -17 +30 -
$3,616,667 54
$5,608,333 184
+55 +240
16
19
+19
$1,691,125 58
$1,892,737 89
+12 +53
18
15
-17
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
$1,221,000 53
$505,167 67
-58 +26
units sold avg sale price
2 $5,437,500
2 $2,229,750
-59
96
8
-92
12 $1,061,750 29
3 $1,362,333 148
-75 +28 +410
39 $589,438 28
26 $657,162 51
-33 +11 +82
units sold avg sale price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
4 $1,320,500 61
7 $1,436,843 24
+75 +9 -61
27 $722,542 26
29 $682,720 28
+7 -6 +8
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
Kalorama
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Logan Circle
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q1 2018 -
Q1 2019 2 $1,247,500 44
% -
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
13 $921,154 15 38 $524,607 29 1 $580,000 85
10 $987,200 13 39 $551,532 44 -
-23 +7 -13 +3 +5 +52 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
7 $867,429 17
6 $1,038,167 32
-15 +20 +88
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
12 $643,042 34
14 $664,311 15
+17 +3 -56
3 $2,231,667 10
5 $2,298,500 61
+66 +3 +510
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
6 $888,650 19
4 $924,125 147
-33 +4 +674
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
24 $435,513 49
16 $557,772 96
-33 +28 +95
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
12
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
“
“
Montgomery County continues to deliver a mixed bag of results as seen once again in the Q1 housing metrics. Overall, the average sales price was up +1.5% while unit sales were down -10.7%. Inventory levels inched up slightly on a YOY basis but continue to hamper buyer options thereby depressing overall purchasing activity. With no single housing stock type dominating this market, little to marginal inventory growth and MD’s higher tax rate it appears there will be little growth in housing market in the near future. In other words, more of the same for 2019.
Q1 2018 135
Q1 2019 136
% +1
$1,113,363 55
$1,190,618 65
+7 +18
units sold avg sold price
18 $774,364
19 $869,856
+6 +13
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
31 73 $508,985
80 66 $445,456
+158 -10 -12
61 45 $1,274,646
86 49 $1,316,830
+41 +9 +3
Single Family avg days on market
56
71
+27
units sold
4
3
-25
$667,875 50
$925,698 18
+38 -64
39
31
-21
$500,197 92
$531,321 83
+6 -10
79 $1,132,806 73
75 $1,099,029 93
-5 -3 +27
18
18
-
$898,578 96
$683,278 49
-24 -49
-
2 $1,199,250 11
-
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Chevy Chase
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
2
its un
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2019
sold Q 12
1.9
8 01
11 9
→
SELLERS
un
20 19
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
11%
3 106
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
its sold Q1
$739M
BALANCED
BUYERS
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2019
14
Photo Courtesy of Linda Trinkle Wolf
Q1 2018 184 $566,321
Q1 2019 152 $566,762
% -17 -
40
49
+23
units sold avg sold price
44 $560,546
57 $523,959
+30 -7
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
48 71 $296,122 45 308 $499,534 49
58 97 $286,700 74 253 $481,207 56
+21 +37 -3 +64 -18 -4 +14
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
106 $328,087 46
74 $386,065 45
-30 +18 -2
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
173 $210,315 52
159 $217,082 54
-9 +3 +4
units sold avg sold price
Rockville
Silver Spring
Single Family avg days on market
15
RED Day (Renew, Energize and Donate) is an initiative dedicated to celebrating Keller Williams Realty’s year-round commitment to improving our local communities. Each year, on the second Thursday in May, tens of thousands of associates from across the United States and Canada participate in a wide range of projects, devoting their time to renewing and energizing aspects of the neighborhoods in which they serve. This year we are so excited to be working with New Hope Housing in Alexandria. This is an innovative, award-winning non-profit agency in Northern Virginia committed to finding creative and lasting solutions to end the cycle of homelessness by offering homeless men, women and children the services they need to change their lives and succeed. This year KW MetroCenter Old Town is providing spring cleaning at two of New Hope Housing’s community shelters. In addition to cleaning and landscaping, we are raising funds for supplies and have wish list items needed for the guests for their transitioning to and from the facilities. Moore Construction Group is joining our day of service for New Hope Housing; They are building a new shed and finishing/painting a deck. To donate money: https://www.mightycause.com/story/Kwredday2019 To purchase needed items: https://smile.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/8YYWDIFCO7HY/ref=hz_ls_biz_ex To volunteer time: https://www.signupgenius.com/go/10c0f49a9a923a46-redday New Hope Housing: http://www.newhopehousing.org/programs/shelters/
KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000