KW Metro Center Q1 Market Report

KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.

MARKET REPORT Q1 2019

®

A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERSpring has arrived in whirlwind fashion and so has the Q1 2019 housing market in the NOVA, DC and Montgomery County markets. The early rush of anxious buyers can be felt in the frenzied effort to find and buy the most desirable homes resulting in multiple offers, price escalations, waiving contingencies and homes being sold in the shortest time frames in recent history. Highly ranked school districts have become one of the strongest drivers in this market and homes located in these districts are experiencing the highest price appreciation and the quickest sell through. Additionally, a good percentage of homes are being sold before ever coming to market thus reducing the opportunity for the buyer pool currently looking to buy.

The Q1 housing metrics across the NOVA, DC and Montgomery County markets showed strong improvement YOY with the exception of unit sales, which were down across all jurisdictions. Inventory levels although depressed continue to rise helping to spur the strong performance the spring market is experiencing. As we have seen in the past, performance varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction with the NOVA market showing the most consistency in the measurements attributable to performance. Although, DC experienced an 8% increase in average sale price, the NOVA cities of Springfield, Lorton and Falls Church delivered the most robust housing numbers in Q1.

Expectations remain positive for the Greater DC housing markets as we move into the second quarter of 2019. Consumer confidence, low unemployment and the continued migration of high tech companies into our area will continue to drive demand through the remainder of 2019. Interest rates should continue to remain stable based on external factors such as Brexit and China’s soft economic performance while the Fed continues it’s steady hand managing the money supply also impacting interest rate stability. Lastly, the bond market continues to be one of the safer investments for foreign entities contributing to interest rate stability. However, the continued rise in the national debt has caused some concern on economic growth impacting everything from infrastructure to interest rates.

Historically, we have come to depend on the federal government as the largest employer in our area and to some degree this remains true. This is slowly changing as we are seeing the professional and business services sector employment enjoying strong growth in our markets thereby diversifying our work force opportunities. This growth along with the large tech and biotech firms moving to our area portend continued prosperity in the Greater DC market place. In addition, home prices in close proximity to the new Amazon headquaters should see above average gains in price appreciation.

Overall, the housing market for the Greater DC market should continue to remain healthy with sellers enjoying steady price appreciation and buyers relying on continued low interest rates and growing inventory levels.

- Jim Lyons

KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS Front Cover Photo Courtesy of Linda Trinkle Wolf

C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3

DMV

MARKET

ANALYSIS

NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6

ALEXANDRIA

6

ARLINGTON

6

FALLS

7

LORTON

7

McLEAN

8

S P R I NG F I E L D

8

VIENNA

8

WOODBRIDGE

CHURCH

WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10

CAPITOL

HILL

10

D OW N T OW N

10

D U P O N T

11

F O G G Y

11

G E O RG E T OW N

11

K A L O R A M A

11

L O G A N

C I RC L E

12

M O U N T

P L E A SA N T

12

S H AW

12

W E S L E Y

B O T T O M / W E S T

H E I G H T S

M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14

B E T H E S DA

14

C H E V Y

14

P O T O M AC

15

R O C K V I L L E

15

S I LV E R

C H A S E

S P R I NG

E N D

DAYS ON MARKET

Q1 2019 AVERAGE SALE PRICE

Q1 2019 UNIT SALES

Q1 2019

MARKET SUMMARY

4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

“

“

The Northern Virginia housing market experienced moderate gains in Q1 compared to Q1 2018 in terms of average sales price and marginally increased inventory levels. The average sales price rose 2.3% while unit sales were down -1.7% despite an average inventory decline of -16.4% over this period. Days on Market declined from an average of 43 days in Q1 2018 to 34 days in Q1 2019. In a nutshell, homes sold faster, for more money and home availability improved slightly. The NOVA market continues to exhibit the strength and stability necessary to attract investment, employers and younger workers that will continue to drive the housing market over the course of 2019.

units sold

Q1 2018 345

Q1 2019 348

% +1

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

$668,406 48

$670,927 50

+4

units sold avg sold price

378 $564,950

360 $582,908

-5 +3

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

18 431 $312,899 45 190 $999,132 42

37 416 $332,552 44 201 $1,027,096 49

+105 -4 +6 -2 +5 +3 +17

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

96 $647,619 27

84 $662,821 32

-13 +2 +19

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

349 $440,937 46

312 $414,983 42

-11 -6 -9

117

139

+19

avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

$739,169 48

$789,986 43

+7 -10

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

32 $540,967 25

49 $571,361 32

+53 +6 +28

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

118 $261,171 37

109 $284,394 52

-8 +9 +41

Alexandria

Arlington

units sold

→

1.4

01 9

3,2 6

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2019

nits sold Q1 u 2 7

20

un its

BALANCED

BUYERS

18

SELLERS

5

single family homes

MARKET BALANCE

1%

3,23

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Falls Church

1 sold Q

$2.16B

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2019

6

Photo Courtesy of Linda Trinkle Wolf

Q1 2018

Q1 2019

%

35 $606,029 50

39 $670,472 76

+11 +11 +52

40 $359,445 37 18 $253,161 26 91 $1,629,856 83

35 $411,941 41 11 $258,536 42 90 $1,398,096 67

-13 +15 +11 -39 +2 +62 -1 -14 -19

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

21 $800,138 46

16 $895,250 58

-24 +11 +26

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

66 $389,039 70

49 $370,571 62

-26 -5 -11

Lorton

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

McLean

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

7

Springfield

Vienna

units sold

Q1 2018 126

Q1 2019 158

% +25

avg sold price

$551,972

$580,571

+5

38

47

+24

units sold avg sold price

90 $395,362

104 $407,681

+16 +3

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

31 25 $255,602

38 31 $259,319

+23 +24 +1

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

32 107 $933,601

36 127 $916,766

+13 +19 -2

43

55

+28

25 $623,017

25 $617,174

-1

Townhouse avg days on market

32

43

+34

units sold

15

27

+80

$346,127 48

$374,126 41

+8 -15

280

290

+4

$391,501

$410,293

+5

Single Family avg days on market

43

65

+51

units sold

250

278

+11

$287,928

$314,759

+9

Townhouse avg days on market

31

49

+58

units sold

85

98

+15

$251,560

$283,281

+12

40

44

+10

Single Family avg days on market

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price

Woodbridge

avg sale price

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

8

WASHINGTON, D.C.

“

“

Q1 results for the Washington, D.C. housing market saw a strong rebound in average sale prices from Q1 2018. Confounding this strong performance however, unit sales were down -5.8% while average inventory levels jumped to an average of +7.3% YOY. Attached TH/Row Homes experienced the strongest growth in sales price increases with condos bringing up the rear with lackluster performances in both price and unit sales.

Multi-unit development will continue to dominate the DC housing landscape for the foreseeable future and could have a negative effect on the supply side of the market, thereby slowing price appreciation.

Q1 2018

Q1 2019

%

2 $1,772,500

7 $874,986

+250 -51

Single Family avg days on market

21

31

+48

units sold

56

85

+52

$968,218

$1,037,676

+7

35 63

32 31

-9 -51

$585,720

$525,436

-11

17 -

43 -

+153 -

avg sold price

-

-

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

-

-

units sold

1

1

-

$2,800,000 183

$960,000 4

-66 -98

25

32

+28

$387,354

$495,744

+28

45

48

+6

1 $4,100,000

-

-

393

-

-

4

6

+50

$1,554,938

$992,383

-36

Townhouse avg days on market

44

28

-36

units sold

21

23

+9

$409,476

$537,288

+31

41

34

-17

units sold avg sold price

Capitol Hill

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

Downtown

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price

Dupont

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price

avg sale price

MARKET BALANCE

2

u

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2019

sold Q1 nits 2

1.7

8 01

92

→

SELLERS

un

20 19

condo & co-op

9%

842

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Condo & Co-op avg days on market

its s d Q1 ol

$444M

BALANCED

BUYERS

TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q1 2019

10

Foggy Bottom/ West End

Georgetown

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Q1 2018 -

Q1 2019 -

% -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold

2 $686,250 28 50 $991,019 44 3

1 $975,000 18 53 $819,042 57 3

-50 +42 -36 +6 -17 +30 -

$3,616,667 54

$5,608,333 184

+55 +240

16

19

+19

$1,691,125 58

$1,892,737 89

+12 +53

18

15

-17

avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

$1,221,000 53

$505,167 67

-58 +26

units sold avg sale price

2 $5,437,500

2 $2,229,750

-59

96

8

-92

12 $1,061,750 29

3 $1,362,333 148

-75 +28 +410

39 $589,438 28

26 $657,162 51

-33 +11 +82

units sold avg sale price

-

-

-

Single Family avg days on market

-

-

-

4 $1,320,500 61

7 $1,436,843 24

+75 +9 -61

27 $722,542 26

29 $682,720 28

+7 -6 +8

avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold

Kalorama

Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

Logan Circle

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

11

Mount Pleasant

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Q1 2018 -

Q1 2019 2 $1,247,500 44

% -

Shaw

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

13 $921,154 15 38 $524,607 29 1 $580,000 85

10 $987,200 13 39 $551,532 44 -

-23 +7 -13 +3 +5 +52 -

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

7 $867,429 17

6 $1,038,167 32

-15 +20 +88

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

12 $643,042 34

14 $664,311 15

+17 +3 -56

3 $2,231,667 10

5 $2,298,500 61

+66 +3 +510

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

6 $888,650 19

4 $924,125 147

-33 +4 +674

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

24 $435,513 49

16 $557,772 96

-33 +28 +95

Wesley Heights

units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

12

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

“

“

Montgomery County continues to deliver a mixed bag of results as seen once again in the Q1 housing metrics. Overall, the average sales price was up +1.5% while unit sales were down -10.7%. Inventory levels inched up slightly on a YOY basis but continue to hamper buyer options thereby depressing overall purchasing activity. With no single housing stock type dominating this market, little to marginal inventory growth and MD’s higher tax rate it appears there will be little growth in housing market in the near future. In other words, more of the same for 2019.

Q1 2018 135

Q1 2019 136

% +1

$1,113,363 55

$1,190,618 65

+7 +18

units sold avg sold price

18 $774,364

19 $869,856

+6 +13

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price

31 73 $508,985

80 66 $445,456

+158 -10 -12

61 45 $1,274,646

86 49 $1,316,830

+41 +9 +3

Single Family avg days on market

56

71

+27

units sold

4

3

-25

$667,875 50

$925,698 18

+38 -64

39

31

-21

$500,197 92

$531,321 83

+6 -10

79 $1,132,806 73

75 $1,099,029 93

-5 -3 +27

18

18

-

$898,578 96

$683,278 49

-24 -49

-

2 $1,199,250 11

-

units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

Bethesda

Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price

Chevy Chase

avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market

Potomac

units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market

2

its un

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2019

sold Q 12

1.9

8 01

11 9

→

SELLERS

un

20 19

single family homes

MARKET BALANCE

11%

3 106

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

its sold Q1

$739M

BALANCED

BUYERS

TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q1 2019

14

Photo Courtesy of Linda Trinkle Wolf

Q1 2018 184 $566,321

Q1 2019 152 $566,762

% -17 -

40

49

+23

units sold avg sold price

44 $560,546

57 $523,959

+30 -7

Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market

48 71 $296,122 45 308 $499,534 49

58 97 $286,700 74 253 $481,207 56

+21 +37 -3 +64 -18 -4 +14

units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market

106 $328,087 46

74 $386,065 45

-30 +18 -2

units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market

173 $210,315 52

159 $217,082 54

-9 +3 +4

units sold avg sold price

Rockville

Silver Spring

Single Family avg days on market

15

RED Day (Renew, Energize and Donate) is an initiative dedicated to celebrating Keller Williams Realty’s year-round commitment to improving our local communities. Each year, on the second Thursday in May, tens of thousands of associates from across the United States and Canada participate in a wide range of projects, devoting their time to renewing and energizing aspects of the neighborhoods in which they serve.

This year we are so excited to be working with New Hope Housing in Alexandria. This is an innovative, award-winning non-profit agency in Northern Virginia committed to finding creative and lasting solutions to end the cycle of homelessness by offering homeless men, women and children the services they need to change their lives and succeed.

This year KW MetroCenter Old Town is providing spring cleaning at two of New Hope Housing’s community shelters. In addition to cleaning and landscaping, we are raising funds for supplies and have wish list items needed for the guests for their transitioning to and from the facilities. Moore Construction Group is joining our day of service for New Hope Housing; They are building a new shed and finishing/painting a deck.

To donate money: https://www.mightycause.com/story/Kwredday2019 To purchase needed items: https://smile.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/8YYWDIFCO7HY/ref=hz_ls_biz_ex To volunteer time: https://www.signupgenius.com/go/10c0f49a9a923a46-redday New Hope Housing: http://www.newhopehousing.org/programs/shelters/

KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®

ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610

ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000

TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000