HD Maps Market: Navigating the Future of Autonomous Driving

Strategic Investor Briefing · 2024 –2030

MARKET PRIMER · VOL. 01

HD Maps Market

Centimetre-precise digital maps have become a core input for ADAS and autonomy — and capital is moving accordingly.

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

$7.4B $50.9B

31.8% 6.9×

2023 market baseline

CAGR 2024–2030

2030 forecast revenue

2023 → 2030 market multiple

FIG. 01

Maps shift from consumer wayfinding to machinereadable perception — the new location substrate. INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN, IN ONE LINE

Data collection → aggregation & cloud maintenance → in-vehicle consumption by OEMs, ADAS stacks & L3–L4 robotaxi fleets. CREATE

AGGREGATE

CONSUME

LiDAR + cameras + aerial

Cloud, change-detection, OTA

OEM / ADAS / Robotaxi

Source · NMSC 2025

SECTION 02 / LANDSCAPE

From $7.4B to $50.9B a 6.9× market by 2030.

HD maps convert LiDAR, camera and aerial inputs into a centimetre-precise, machine-readable layer that ADAS stacks and autonomous platforms consume — pulling the segment into a 31.8% CAGR track through 2030.

REVENUE TRAJECTORY · USD BNP

REGIONAL MIX · 2024E

31.8% $50.9B

2023 baseline to 2030 forecast.

Demand is anchored in North

CAGR 24–30

America; Asia-Pacific is the fastest

2030F

riser. $32.0B 2028E

$24.5B $18.4B $7.4B

$10.2B

$14.0B

2027E

2026E

2025E

2024E

2023

North America

~38%

Europe

~28%

Asia-Pacific

~24%

Rest of World

~10%

Mix is directional — NMSC identifies NA as dominant and APAC as a steady riser; values triangulated from public filings and primary research.

Source: NMSC HD Maps Market Report, Aug 2025; mid-decade years linearly interpolated except 2030F.

WHAT MAKES A MAP "HD"

Five interlocking data layers — each updatable independently — that turn a road into a machine-readable artifact. L1

L2

L3

L4

L5

Lane geometry

Road furniture

Localization

Semantic

Live delta

Centimetre-accurate lane lines, width, curvature.

Signs, signals, poles, barriers, kerbs.

Landmark graphs for vehicle self-localisation beyond GPS.

Drivable corridor, parking zones, school areas.

Continuous OTA changedetection & refresh.

INDUSTRY ECOSYSTEM

Three interlocking sectors — each with its own margin pool and competitive clock speed.

UPSTREAM · CREATE

MIDSTREAM · AGGREGATE

DOWNSTREAM · CONSUME

Survey & capture

Cloud + change-detection

Vehicle consumption

Survey fleets, LiDAR rigs, aerial imagery partners. Capex-heavy, long-tail collection.

Maintain the map, validate crowdsourced deltas, stream updates over the air.

OEMs, ADAS stacks, robotaxi platforms, last-mile delivery, drone & IoT.

Key players · Waymo · Sanborn · TomTom · HERE

Key players · Mobileye · Mapbox · HERE · NVIDIA

Demand drivers · OEMs · Mobility-as-a-Service · Drones

Source · NMSC 2025

SECTION 03 / GROWTH

Three demand engines pull HD maps to scale.

Autonomy programs, ADAS penetration and last-mile delivery compound to expand the addressable map every quarter — not in lockstep, but in the same direction.

DRIVER · 01

↑↑

DRIVER · 02

↑↑

DRIVER · 03

↑

AV program rollouts

ADAS scale-up in mass-market

Sensor & 5G pull-through

L3–L4 robotaxi and autonomous trucking programmes are scaling concurrently in NA, EU and China — each program signs multi-year HD-map supply MoUs.

L2+ hands-off features (BMW Highway Assistant, GM Super Cruise, Ford BlueCruise) treat HD maps as a sensor input — pulling demand into every new production vehicle.

Cheaper LiDAR, advanced thermal cameras and 5G low-latency delivery make highfrequency map updates economically viable — opening a services layer.

Signals

Waymo, Cruise, Baidu Apollo, Mobileye AV pilots.

HERE live in BMW 7 Series (Nov 2022), NVIDIA Drive Map (Mar 2022).

Robosense M2/M3 LiDAR (Jan 2024), TomTom AutoStream delivery.

HIGH-GROWTH SEGMENTS

Four application tracks — each with a distinct commercialisation clock.

APPLICATION MIX · 2024E SHARE

REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY

Where most map-revenue lives today — and where the next dollar comes from.

Where capital is likely to find its highest 2025–2030 leverage.

Autonomous vehicles

~48%

ADAS L2+

~28%

Last-mile delivery

~12%

Aerial drones

~7%

IoT-enabled

~5%

North America · largest today

Anchor

Europe · regulatory push

Steady

Asia-Pacific · rising fastest

High-beta

Middle East & LATAM

Watchlist

Directional — derived from named OEM launches and IIHS projections of selfdriving fleet growth.

DEMAND BENCHMARKS, NAMED

US AUTONOMOUS FLEET

ADAS ADOPTION

FLEET MAPPING SCALE

3.5M

L2+

4,250

Self-driving cars on US roads by 2025 (IIHS projection)

Hands-off features are the entry point — HD map places are added per OEM platform.

Miles of US highway HD-mapped by Sanborn in Aug 2022.

4.5M by 2030

1 car-line at a time

Mile-by-mile buildout

Source · NMSC 2025

SECTION 04 / COMPETITION

Eight companies, three strategic theses.

Mapping becomes a platform layer when paired with autonomy, ADAS or cloud delivery. The leading names cluster into three strategic postures. POSTURE · A

POSTURE · B

POSTURE · C

Centimetre-accurate incumbents

Crowd-update scale platforms

OEM-anchored & regional

NAMED PLAYERS ACROSS THE THREE THESES

A · INCUMBENT

A1

A2

TomTom

HERE Technologies

TomTom Maps Platform + AutoStream — HD delivered into the ECU.

Centimetre HD map live in BMW 7 Series (Nov 2022). EUROPE-LED

C · OEM-ANCHORED

A · INCUMBENT

EUROPE-LED

C1

C · OEM-ANCHORED

C2

B · SCALE

B1

Baidu Apollo

Vertical-integrated map tied to robotaxi fleets in LA / SF / Phoenix.

China robotaxi leader — Apollo Go fleets anchor multi-city HD.

VERTICAL

CHINA-LED

B2

Mobileye (REM)

NVIDIA Drive Map

Crowdsourced REM updates skip dedicated capture fleets.

Mapping platform launched Mar 2022; real-time AV map updates.

FLEET-DRIVEN

PLATFORM-LED

C · OEM-ANCHORED

C3

NavInfo

Waymo (Alphabet)

B · SCALE

China-native mapping; OEM licensing across Toyota, Honda, VW JVs.

OEM LICENSE

C · OEM-ANCHORED

C4

DMP & Momenta Dynamic Map Platform NA + Momenta — JV plays across Asia / NA. REGIONAL JV

RECENT STRATEGIC MOVES

Three signals — and the named moves that prove them.

MOVE · 01

MOVE · 02

MOVE · 03

HD map embedded in OEM OEM launches

Crowdsourced update at consumer-fleet scale

Standards converge — OpenDRIVE × NDS

HERE HD in BMW 7 Series (Nov 2022) — the first wave of consumer-grade, map-aware hands-off driving.

Mobileye crowdsources map updates from production vehicles — bypassing dedicated capture-fleet capex.

ASAM OpenDRIVE converts to NDS 2.5.4 — toolchain interchange unlocks vendor-agnostic mapping.

Multi-year OEM commitments

Capex-light scale advantage

Lower switching cost · wider TAM

Source · NMSC 2025

SECTION 05 / OUTLOOK

Where capital concentrates, and what we are watching.

HD maps are no longer a research line item — they are a routine integration line on every ADAS and autonomy roadmap. THREE CONCRETE TAKEAWAYS

TAKEAWAY · 01

HEADWINDS TO MONITOR

01

HD maps are a per-vehicle revenue line, not a oneone-shot survey project. OEM-led programmes turn the survey asset into a recurring map-update and featurefee stream — closer to SaaS economics than to a CapEx survey programme.

Survey capex is still heavy High-resolution sensor fleets and field ops keep the upstream cash curve steep.

Privacy & data sovereignty Roads, buildings and roadside detail create regulatory and reputational exposure in EU/CN.

Liability for map data as a sensor ISO 26262-style integrity levels raise the bar on validation, especially when HD maps inform braking.

OEM price pressure per vehicle TAKEAWAY · 02

02

Procurement pushes for cents-per-vehicle ASPs as HD maps go from premium to standard.

The winner’s cluster sits where update-at-scale scale meets OEM embed. Mobileye-style crowdsourcing couples with HERE/TomTom-style OEM depth; pure survey fleets without an update path are the most exposed cohort.

TAKEAWAY · 03

03

Standards — OpenDRIVE × NDS — quietly de-risk adoption. Map-format interchange lowers buyer switching cost, expands TAM and lets tier-2 specialists plug into OEM toolchains — a regulatory-style tailwind.

12–24 MONTH WATCHLIST

W1

OEM pilot wins for ADAS L2+ map-aware driving beyond premium tier.

W2

Crowd-update fleet milestones — REM-class metrics disclosure.

W3

Standards consolidation — NDS converter updates.

W4

5G / V2X rollouts enabling live map broadcast at city scale.

W5

Cross-border M&A — EU and APAC consolidations.

OpenDRIVE

CONVICTION

A 31.8% CAGR through 2030 is durable, but the slope belongs to whoever owns the update path, not the survey asset. Investor takeaway, August 2025

Source · NMSC 2025

THANK YOU

Let’s go deeper.

For a deeper dive into HD maps — sizing models, regional breakouts, partner-specific profiles — reach the team at Next Move Strategy Consulting.

FULL REPORT · HD MAPS MARKET

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