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“How Was the Best Case Scenario Joe Biden?” | Aleksandra Socha
Disclaimer: This piece was originally written in July 2024, before the November election which would ultimately end in Donald Trump’s win over Kamala Harris.
The expectations for Joe Biden’s first (and what would become his last) 2024 presidential debate were already quite low before he finally came face-to-face with Donald Trump on June 27. Biden’s critics have nicknamed him “Sleepy Joe,” citing his slow speech, occasional stuttering, and tendency to lose his train of thought halfway through bizarre anecdotes about men in suits kissing, cannibals, or a gangster named “Corn Pop.” As for Biden’s Republican opponent and predecessor, Donald Trump’s performance would undoubtedly be graded on a curve of his own making. If he had survived the debate without rambling, losing his temper, or constantly interrupting Biden, as he did in 2020, he’d have likely come out victorious. So while the bar for both politicians’ performances was barely above the floor, the blowback that came next was unprecedented. What followed was pure shock and panic, a sense of betrayal, and an unparalleled number of calls for Biden to step down as presidential candidate. Although the debate backfired in such a spectacular fashion that even Biden’s fiercest allies came to oppose him, President Biden initially turned a blind eye to the criticism, letting it fall on deaf ears. Biden finally dropped out of the race on July 21 and immediately backed the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris, anointing her as his replacement just 107 days before the election. However, Biden’s age and other shortcomings have been well-known for years – so how come they went unaddressed for such a long time? And in an environment dominated by voices dissatisfied with Biden, how did he even make it that far into his campaign run?
Let’s rewind the clock to four years ago. After Barack Obama, Biden didn’t seem like the obvious contender for the next Democratic President. Obama, a symbol of hope and progress for Americans, famously used the single word “change” as his 2008 slogan; short and sweet, and certainly to the point. With Obama emerged an era of Americans who rejected politics as usual and who believed that a profound change within the Democratic Party was possible. If a young, relatively inexperienced biracial man with a Muslim-sounding name was able to become President, surely a generation of other young, energetic, diverse politicians would follow. Perhaps the 2020 voters would nominate a woman, like Elizabeth Warren, or a gay millennial, like Pete Buttigieg, or another racial minority, like Kamala Harris. Certainly, it would have to be a progressive candidate. Right? Right?
Not exactly. During the 2020 primary, Democratic voters ended up electing Joe Biden as their nominee. He was 78 when he assumed office, making him the oldest President ever elected. He was a moderate who clashed with his fellow Democrats over their support for a progressive agenda. With Biden’s history of brutal gaffes and support for semi-conservative values, voters felt that he was alienated from the struggles of the increasingly diverse and young Democratic electorate. Biden was vanilla ice cream. But in 2020, when Democratic voters were desperately searching for an alternative to Donald Trump’s fire and fury, vanilla suddenly seemed good enough to eat. “Grandpa Joe” was the safe option – already vetted and experienced, well-known and liked for his role in Obama’s White House, and moderate enough to appeal to undecided voters and the Republicans who had drifted from Trump. In 2020, Democrats settled for Biden the way my family settles for French fries when everyone wants something different for dinner. But here’s the catch: Biden was supposed to be a bridge between the old and the new generation. While he never outwardly said he’d resign after the end of his first term, his comments about being a “transition candidate” made most Democrats assume that he wouldn’t seek reelection. So what happened?
As Franklin Foer, the author of The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future claims, Biden’s “heroic self-conception” propelled him to believe that fate pushed him into his position. Biden publicly maintains he decided to seek reelection because he was the only one who could beat Donald Trump. But even if Biden did believe that, the polls didn’t seem to agree with him. In July 2020, four months before the election, Biden was beating Trump by 9 points on average. In 2024, it was Trump who was 2 points ahead of Biden. He and his advisors argued that the polls were unreliable, asserting that Trump’s advantage fell within the margin of error. But in today’s highly polarized society, the Electoral College, the American system of voting, tends to give an advantage to the Republican candidate. Last time Biden won by a margin of around 40,000 votes spread over 3 swing states. In 2024, it was almost certain that the election was also going to be on the margins. It was safe to assume that the choice between Biden and Trump would depend on a group of voters so small that it couldn’t even fill an American football field. This is precisely why Biden couldn’t afford to lose any of his 2020 voters.
As the race progressed, the inevitable slowly became clear – Biden was losing his voters’ support. But the summer of 2024 was not the first time Americans expressed their dissatisfaction with Biden or called on him to step down. His approval rating started tanking in August 2021, after the U.S.’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan resulted in the Taliban takeover. Rather than apologizing, Biden, who tends to double down when cornered and criticized, stood behind his decision. Perhaps this stubbornness and lack of humility is what irked his constituents the most. September 2021 marked the first time more voters disapproved than approved of Biden’s handling of the presidency. Since then, he’s suffered from historically low approval ratings. Voters have blamed Biden for inflation, the housing crisis, and chaos within the immigration system. Imagine arriving at work only to discover a mere 38% of the people you work for approve of the job you’re doing. Unless you’re Joe Biden, you might take it as a hint that you should probably quit when your contract is up. Instead, Biden kept pleading with voters to grant him another term to “finish the job” without ever admitting that some of his decisions were mistakes. So who says he was the right person to “finish the job”?
At first glance, it might seem like the Democratic base did. In the U.S., the presidential nominee from each party is chosen not by party leadership, but by the party’s voters through a primary election. But if the sitting President is looking to secure a second term, the process is a mere technicality. After the initial backlash to Biden’s debate performance, a handful of friends and relatives all asked me the same question: “Why wouldn’t the Democratic Party simply nominate someone else in his place?” To put it crudely, that’s because, at the time, Biden was the Democratic Party. Unlike Poland, political parties in the U.S. don’t have an official leader. Usually, the party is de facto led by its highest-ranking politician. When Biden was sworn in as President, he became the unofficial head of the party. When Biden said “jump,” the Democratic National Committee would ask, “How high?”. This explains why no major politician challenged Biden during the 2024 primaries, and why Biden was able to win them by a large margin.
Make no mistake – as already established, Biden’s straightforward primary win didn’t actually mean that he was popular. It also didn’t mean that he was completely unchallenged. Dean Phillips, a little-known congressman from Minnesota, decided to run against Biden. Although he claimed to be in agreement with Biden over most policy issues, Phillips took notice of what other Democratic officials had overlooked – Biden’s chances of defeating Donald Trump were slipping by the day (Phillips has since been dubbed the “modern Cassandra of American politics”). Phillips wanted to provide Democrats with an electable alternative, but his campaign was so obscure and loathed by most officials that it never gained much traction. Phillips even claimed that Democratic leadership actively suppressed his campaign. Due to his weak showings, he finally dropped out in March and endorsed Biden. At the same time, a small but significant fraction of Democratic voters chose to demonstrate their opposition to Biden’s reelection, especially in the light of his support for Israel during the invasion of Gaza. Disappointed Democrats voted “undecided” during their primaries, sending Biden a clear signal of disapproval. According to a 2023 poll by NBC News Survey, 70% of Americans didn’t want Biden to run for reelection. Crucially, this included a half of his own electorate – 51% of Democrats. But the Democratic primary was a series of extremely low turnout votes that acted as a mere illusion of party unity, culminating in Biden’s inevitable win. With no suitable alternative, most Democrats resigned themselves to Biden and his baggage. If 2020 Biden was vanilla ice cream, the 2024 version was expired milk. In the words of CNN political commentator Bakari Sellers: “It is what it is.”
Yet, all this seems to have changed after the first presidential debate, which showcased Biden’s greatest weakness: his age. It’s easy to understand why American were concerned – if reelected, Biden would end his second term as an 86-year-old. In April, an Ipsos and Reuters poll showed that 81% of Americans considered him too old for his role. Biden’s debate against Trump was meant to squash those concerns. Instead, it accelerated them. What was most striking about the response to Biden’s disastrous performance was that it came not just from the voters, but also from inside the house, with major liberal politicians, donors, journalists, and pundits turning against the President. Jon Favreau, a political commentator and former head speechwriter for President Obama, called it the worst debate he’d ever seen. Numerous congresspeople called on Biden to resign. Even the actor George Clooney, a loyal donor and surrogate to Biden, asked the President to withdraw from the race. Just weeks before, these pundits, politicians, and supporters had backed and defended him. But the debate opened their eyes to what the voters had worried about for years. Biden’s age was just the tip of the iceberg.
Most significantly, it was Biden’s lack of humility and unwillingness to listen which exasperated the American public. Time after time, he continued to ask his voters to blindly put their faith in him. When criticized or questioned, he doubled down, insisting voters’ concerns were manufactured by journalists and acting like a victim of media frenzy. Biden’s legacy will ultimately be that of a man who chose unity over power – but let’s keep in mind that even when he decided to drop out of the race, he signaled he was doing it for the sake of party unity, not because he believed the nation’s worries were valid.
