Kaiser Partner Privatbank - Monthly Market Monitor February 2021

Monthly Market Monitor

February 2021

Table of contents Satellite View Geopolitical heat map

In a Nutshell

Our view on the markets

07

04 Macro Radar

Theme in Focus Investing for everyone? Not without

Taking the pulse of

risks and side effects

Asset Allocation Notes from the Investment Committee

08

economic activity

The Back Page

10

06

Asset classes & agenda

ESG - Sustainability Corner The green wave is unstoppable

12

11

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021

3

In a Nutshell

Our view on the markets

Vaccination campaigns have started A giant vaccination wave is following on the heels of the corona wave – immunization campaigns against COVID-19 started up at the turn of the year (mainly in industrialized countries). Meanwhile, the number of vaccine doses distributed around the world now exceeds the number of COVID-19 infections tallied since the outbreak of the pandemic. But the vaccination process isn’t running smoothly everywhere. The vaccine rollout glitches will likely delay the expected upturn in economic activity, particularly in Europe.

US president laying markers New US President Joe Biden sent a “green” signal on his very first day in office by signing an executive order recommitting the USA to the Paris climate agreement and by stopping the construction of the Keystone XL petroleum pipeline. The slim Democratic majority in the US Congress should enable him to set further policy priorities and implement a large part of his green agenda. The US economy is also likely to get another boost because Biden wants to enact a third coronavirus relief package.

Corporate earnings find a floor The earnings reporting season for Q4 2020 has thus far confirmed that corporate profits found a floor last year after nosediving due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Chart of the month In search of the next bubble | Even Google queries are looking bubbly Google search trends for “stock market bubble” and “short squeeze”

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

stock market bubble

short squeeze

Sources: Google, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 4

Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

0

Even though the upturn in economic activity won’t really kick into gear until spring, the positive economic growth impetus is bound to lift earnings appreciably this year. Equity markets’ path of least resistance remains pointed to the upside.

Fixed-income alternatives Bond yields have been in a very mild but continuous uptrend for several weeks now, and yield curves have steepened in expectation of an upturn in economic activity. For bond investors, these developments are synonymous with price drawdowns. Seeking and finding investment alternatives in the fixed-income sector is more important than ever today. We see opportunities in insurance-linked bonds, microfinance assets and Chinese government bonds.

Sustainable funds in the ascendant Total assets under management in sustainable funds climbed 29% in 2020 to USD 1.7 trillion. The net inflow of investor capital even accelerated further at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the growing demand has an ever-broadening array of sustainable offerings to choose from. Mutual fund companies around the world launched 196 new “green” funds in Q4 2020. The momentum looks set to stay strong this year.

The new investment year is still young, but it has already produced tales of winners and losers on the financial markets. A big stir was caused in January by the stock performance of the US retailer GameStop, whose share price intermittently rocketed by more than 1,700% since the start of the year. Hedge funds that had bet that the stock price would fall due to the video-game seller’s ailing fundamentals suffered billion-dollar losses while small retail investors, who hyped up the stock on social media, came out the purported winners in a battle of David versus Goliath. But it’s not as simple as that: many newcomer investors likely got burned in the stock-market gambling frenzy. And the US Securities Exchange Commission will pay closer scrutiny to the trading action in recent weeks. In any case, the recent speculative excesses are a telltale sign that the equity bull market is in a relatively far-advanced stage.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021

5

Macro Radar

Taking the pulse of economic activity

The vaccination campaign against COVID-19 has begun, though more slowly than desired in many countries. This is likely to delay an economic upturn for a short while, particularly in Europe. But economic activity is bound to pick up (sharply) in spring as the weather warms and the easing of pandemic restrictions unleashes greater spending potential.

Stuttering start to vaccination drive One hundred million vaccine doses have already been administered around the world over the past six weeks, but countries’ immunization campaigns are not all running as smoothly and efficiently as in Israel or the UK. Delivery problems, delays in vaccine approvals and administrative obstacles have led to a bumpy start, particularly in Europe. Since the restrictions on public and economic life in many countries in Europe look set to be gradually eased in late March at the earliest, this will delay an upturn in economic activity for a while.

Pent-up consumer spending But this is merely a deferral, because in the wake of weak growth (and actually a contraction in Europe) over the first three months of this year, economic activity looks destined to pick up considerably in the second quarter.

Costly aid packages | Further stimulus measures are in sight The “fiscal response” to the COVID-19 pandemic Switzerland

Australia Spain Canada USA New Zealand France United Kingdom Germany Italy Japan 5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Additional expenses and lost income

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Equity, loans and guarantees

Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Consensus estimates

Kaiser Partner Privatbank interest rates view 2020

2021

2022

GDP growth (in %)

Last

3M

12M

Key interest rates (in %)

Switzerland

-3.4

3.4

2.7

Switzerland

-0.75

→

→

Eurozone

-7.2

4.3

3.9

Eurozone

-0.50

→

→

UK

-10.6

4.7

5.7

UK

0.10

→

→

US

-3.5

4.1

3.5

US

0.25

→

→

2.3

8.4

5.5

China

2.95

→

→ →

China Inflation (in %) Switzerland

10-year yields (in %) -0.7

0.2

0.5

Switzerland

-0.41

→

Eurozone

0.3

0.9

1.2

Eurozone

-0.48

→

→

UK

0.9

1.5

1.9

UK

0.36

→

→

US

1.2

2.2

2.1

US

1.12

→

→

China

2.5

1.5

2.3

China

3.21

→

→

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 6

Biden off to a flying start The upturn in the USA is likely to be particularly robust, in part also because the country’s new president, Joe Biden, has energetically gotten down to work in his first few days in office. After it took until December to enact an additional USD 900 billion coronavirus relief package, Biden has now presented yet another USD 1.9 trillion economic stimulus proposal. This would raise the total coronavirus relief to 25% of the USA’s annual economic output, making it five times bigger than the response to the great financial crisis. However, Biden’s plans thus far don’t sit entirely well with the Republicans, who recently have offered “only” USD 600 billion of additional aid.

Temporary upsurge in inflation The inflation rate for the Eurozone registered a historically big jump in January. After staying stuck at –0.3% during the prior three months, it shot up to 0.9% at the start of this year. But it would be premature to talk about a reemerging specter of inflation. The general increase in prices owes in part to a hike in the value-added tax and the introduction of a CO2 surcharge on gasoline, diesel fuel and heating oil in Germany, as well as to energyprice base effects and distortions caused by winter clearance sales. The surge in inflation will probably prove to be a temporary phenomenon in retrospect.

South Korea

0

Warmer weather and a gradual lifting of restrictions are bound to give consumers increasing possibilities to spend money. After all, the past several months have practically forced people to save a lot of cash. The household savings rate hit a record-high 17% in Germany last year and stood at above 13% in the USA at last look.

Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Sources: Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Satellite View Geopolitical heat map

USA vs. China Donald Trump has vacated the White House, but the cold war between the United States and China nonetheless looks set to continue. In fact, there is a risk that the conflict could worsen further in the near future.

Chinese military exercises in the Taiwan Strait have intensified notably in recent weeks. Taiwan is not just of political interest to the Middle Kingdom, but is also of economic interest because the island nation is a major manufacturer of highly efficient microchips. A potential escalation of the saber-rattling in Asia is not being adequately priced in by the financial markets at present.

Early new elections in Italy?

Italy’s 66th government since the founding of the republic in 1946 broke apart over disagreements on how to spend EUR 209 billion from the EU recovery fund. If President Sergio Mattarella is unable to assemble a new cabinet soon, in a negative scenario Italy would face the prospect of new elections, in which right-wing parties

would currently hold good cards. Risk premiums on Italian government bonds could widen in the months ahead against this backdrop. However, we do not expect to see any major market dislocations because the European Central Bank implicitly can control risk premiums.

What comes after Merkel?

The era of German Chancellor Angela Merkel will definitively end in autumn after almost 16 years. During her chancellorship, Germany went from being the “sick man of Europe” to becoming the continent’s economic growth engine and an anchor of stability for the European Union. Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) sent an initial signal of continuity by electing Armin Laschet to be its new party chairman.

If Laschet becomes Germany’s next chancellor, he will likely adhere to and continue with Merkel’s cautious pro-Europeanism and her policy of compromise and conciliation within the EU between the wealthier north and the poorer south.

Geopolitical developments do not stop at the gates of the financial markets.

On the contrary, they have become an increasingly important influencing variable in recent years. Our Satellite View takes a look at the major hotspots at the moment.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021

7

Asset Allocation

Notes from the Investment Committee

Equity markets started the new year in a comparatively volatile fashion, perhaps providing a foretaste of what the rest of 2021 may hold in store. The interplay between rich valuations, growing retail investor interest, copious central-bank liquidity and an upturn in economic activity looks poised to keep volatility running high.

Asset allocation monitor -

+

-

Cash

Equities

Fixed Income

Global

Sovereign bonds

Switzerland

Corporate bonds

Europe

Microfinance

UK

Inflation-linked bonds

US

High-yield bonds

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets bonds

Alternative assets

Insurance-linked bonds

Commodities

Convertible bonds

Gold

Duration

Real estate

Currencies

Hedge funds

US dollar

Structured products

Swiss franc

Private equity

+

01/2021

01/2021

Euro British pound

Equities: Volatile start to the year Scorecard • The “January effect” didn’t last long this year. Statisti+ cally, this market anomaly usually produces positive Macro returns in January, in large part due to the inflow of Monetary/fiscal policy new investor money at the start of each year. This Earnings time, though, the upward trend lasted only for a short Valuation while before a mid-January correction set in. With Trend 01/2021 market performances ranging from –1% to –3% for Sentiment the month, the January end-result isn’t horrific on the surface, but the sharp spike in the VIX volatility barometer (by more than 40% in a single day) does reflect a bound to boost earnings appreciably this year. Central great deal of investor uncertainty. banks reaffirmed in January that monetary policy will • Even if volatility looks set to stay high in the near funot tighten anytime soon. The penetrative power of ture, history is on the side of the equity bulls. In the monetary and fiscal policy accommodation is reflectpast after such a big jump in the VIX, the S&P 500 ined not least by the massive increase in the M1 money dex consistently ended up hovering at a higher level supply aggregate, which likewise exerts a buoyant efboth one month and six months afterward. Moreover, fect on equity markets. other previously overheated tactical indicators like the bull-to-bear ratio or the positioning of hedge funds, Fixed income: Focus on fixed-income alternatives for example, have returned somewhat to normal as • Although vaccination campaigns in many countries a result of the recent consolidation. Since the upward have gotten off to a stop-and-go start, the most trend channels are still intact, equity markets’ path of probable scenario for fixed-income investors for least resistance remains pointed to the upside.

2021 remains intact: economic activity looks set • This is also because a tailwind is blowing from the to pick up significantly while bond yields, in the fundamentals side as well. The earnings reporting best case, will stay at low levels. They will tend to season for Q4 2020 has thus far confirmed that coredge upward though, which in the final reckoning porate profits have found a floor after nosediving due would mean an assured negative price performance to the coronavirus pandemic. And even though the in the case of European government bonds and a upturn in economic activity won’t really kick into gear red zero at best for US Treasurys. The current yield until spring, the positive economic growth impetus is trend, which has been on a gentle upward trajectory 8

Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

mentals; it was solely attributable to trading activity since last autumn, supports this expectation. Cenby small retail investors who wanted to initiate a short tral bankers at the ECB have already found a way squeeze via social media – an endeavor that is unlikely to counter rising market interest rates. According to to be crowned with lasting success. media reports, the European Central Bank is trying to actively control credit spreads on European govCurrencies: Tactical US dollar rally underway ernment bonds versus benchmark German bunds.

• Investment alternatives in the fixed-income sec- • EUR/USD: The narrative surrounding the EUR/USD exchange rate has changed in recent weeks. The tor remain rare, but there are still some scattered USA’s ballooning budget deficit and ever-mounting opportunities again this year. Chinese government piles of debt are no longer the focal point; the spotbonds, for instance, look attractive in view of their light has since shifted to the economic growth pros3%-plus yield (on 10-year debt) and in expectation of pects on both sides of the Atlantic. It is becoming ina stable to mildly appreciating renminbi. Insurancecreasingly evident that they will be more gratifying for linked bonds and microfinance assets also remain the USA than for Europe again in 2021. This is likely to an interesting addition to an investment portfolio attract capital inflows that will strengthen the US dolfrom both a diversification and return perspective. lar. The greenback’s ongoing retracement rally could therefore extend further, particularly in view of the Alternative assets: Short squeeze in silver? still sizable short positions in the dollar on futures • Gold got off to a less-than-glittering start to the year, exchanges. dropping by around 3% in January as thought experiments about a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” • GBP/USD: Some more air escaped from the Brexit risk premium in January. The British pound has thus held weighed on the yellow metal. In 2013, former US up well against the US dollar since the start of this Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s tapering year, but the upside potential from its current level announcement massively drove up real interest rates, appears constrained. Although the UK economy looks which intensified the already established downtrend poised to experience a bigger-than-average rebound in gold. We, however, see little probability of a replay this year, the pound is unlikely to become a favorite of this scenario. The Fed’s new embrace of “inflation among investors as long as the Bank of England conaveraging” makes its monetary policy explicitly more templates introducing a negative policy rate and the expansive these days than it was back in 2013. Moreafterpains of the UK’s secession from the EU continue over, given the spiraling government debt load and to stoke uncertainty. the related interest expenses, the Fed probably will want to prevent a rapid rise in long-term interest rates • EUR/CHF: The Swiss franc continued to move in a very narrow trading range barely more than one centime at all costs. wide against the euro in January. We do not expect • Expectations of a vigorous economic recovery are also interest-rate and growth differentials or political demore a bane than a boon for the price of gold at the velopments in the euro member states to trigger the moment. This is why the price of silver, which is more start of a new exchange-rate trend in the near future. sensitive than gold to changes in economic activity, The Swiss National Bank will thus probably continue has recently been outperforming the gold price. Howto enjoy relative peace and quiet – new interventions ever, silver’s price peak at just over USD 30 per ounce in the currency market are unnecessary for now. in early February wasn’t driven by the metal’s funda-

Chart in the Spotlight Bottoming out? | The prospects for UK stocks are brightening MSCI UK index relative to MSCI World index

110

100

90

80

70

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

60

UK stocks have underperformed year after year over the last half-decade. The UK equity market once again lagged the MSCI World index by around 25% in 2020, but this year we see catch-up and upside potential.

The UK market offers the best of both worlds. Cheap valuations and an attractive aggregate dividend yield above 3% beckon. Moreover, the UK market’s low beta of 0.85 versus the MSCI World index is interesting from a tactical perspective in view of the world equity market’s vulnerability to a correction. But the UK market’s heavy weighting in financial, basic material and energy stocks also presents upside opportunities in a reflation scenario or amid a continued comeback of value investing. Finally, the economic upturn is likely to be stronger in the UK than in mainland Europe, not least as a result of the successful rollout of the UK’s vaccination drive.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021

9

Theme in Focus

Investing for everyone? Not without risks and side effects

Trading on the financial markets has become easily accessible to everyone these days. Public interest in the topic of investing surged once again in the year of the coronavirus. But the “democratization of investing” is not without risks and side effects.

10

Using coronavirus stimulus checks to speculate on stocks Once upon a time, securities trading was considered the reserved domain of a well-heeled and/or financial-market-savvy clientele. Those days, though, are long gone.

Whoever would like to trade stocks nowadays can do it online with just a few clicks on his or her smartphone and with the tiniest of budgets – thanks to Robinhood.

This US-based online broker founded in 2013 has rapidly turned the brokerage industry on its head. Robinhood’s concept: Everyone should be able to actively participate in the financial markets regardless of the size of his or her wallet. Robinhood’s solution: Making stock trading free of charge. The startup’s enormous success, as measured by its soaring number of customers, left established competitors no other choice but to follow suit sooner or later. Since 2019, investors in the USA can now also trade for free with Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers. Even the high price of a stock is no longer a hindrance. The advent of fractional shares now enables an investor to purchase, for example, as little as one-twentieth or less of an “expensive” share of Amazon, which currently costs more than 3,000 US dollars.

Stop’s share price intermittently climbed to almost USD 400 before it inevitably plummeted. The hedge fund Melvin Capital was a victim of the fracas, but it wasn’t the only one; small retail investors who jumped on the bandwagon late also lost a lot of money.

The Robinhood effect US private investors opened more than 10 million new investment accounts in 2020. They also accounted for 20% of all equity-market transactions, twice as many as in 2019. In addition, more and more investors have long since gone beyond trading ordinary stocks. New investors are also increasingly betting on (call) options to parlay a smaller investment of (leveraged) capital into even bigger profits. All of this is not without consequences.

The small- and micro-cap segment of the stock market in particular has routinely seen erratic share-price movements in recent weeks and months. There’s a fitting term for the numerous examples: the Robinhood effect.

Its latest episode recounts the case of GameStop. The business fortunes of the USA’s largest video game retail chain had been on the decline for years. Its stock price was accordingly low; it was languishing at around USD 4 per share in summer of last year. But it spiked to USD 20

by Christmas. The real financial suspense story, however, has been playing out since the start of this year. While hedge funds deliberately bet on a falling stock price in view of GameStop’s poor fundamentals, in recent weeks private investors on the Reddit channel WallStreetBets discussed ways to trip up the masters of Wall Street and initiated a gigantic short squeeze, temporarily making GameStop the most-traded stock on Wall Street. Game-

The added value of professional investment advice But even though this wave of democratization of investing has its drawbacks, increased public interest in the financial markets fundamentally is a very positive development, because not every new investor intends to gamble on the stock market. The majority of new investors are devoting serious thought to investing for the long term and planning for retirement. More and more investors are discovering the value of receiving prudent, comprehensive, personalized investment advice. An analysis performed by Cerulli Associates last October revealed that 40% of US investors say they need more investment advice, and 56% of the survey respondents are willing to pay something for it. And 82% of those who already do pay for investment advice say they are satisfied with it. Other research conducted by Franklin Templeton and Gallup shows that investors who consult with financial advisors feel they have chosen the right investment strategy more than twice as often as do-ityourself investors. The personal circumstances, goals and needs of each individual client have always stood at the center of the investment process at Kaiser Partner Privatbank. Using innovative, sustainable investment solutions and in close dialogue with clients, we will continue in the future to pursue the goal of earning aboveaverage risk-adjusted returns.

Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

This example illustrates that the brave new world of investing holds risks in store that many financial-market novices are unaware of, particularly since apps like Robinhood make investing seem like a game. Whoever opens an investment account or refers a friend to open one gets free stocks. And bursts of colorful confetti celebrate executed transactions. Whoever purchases a premium membership for five dollars a month becomes a Gold customer and can even speculate on credit. Where the gamification of investing and the lack of clear explanations of the risks involved can ultimately lead in the worst case was poignantly brought to light by an incident in summer 2020, when a 20-year-old Robinhood trader committed suicide after reportedly seeing that he had a negative balance of more than USD 730,000 on the app.

ESG- Sustainability Corner The green wave is unstoppable

The pandemic is giving ESG another boost Forest fires in Australia and California, deforestation of millions of hectares of rainforest in the Amazon, extraordinary warming in the Arctic, and COVID-19 on top of all that. Recent events concerning the Earth’s climate and the pandemic have not just tested governments’ ability to respond, but have also put human spirit to the test. The public health crisis and the year 2020 in its entirety have also woven a compelling narrative about investing in line with ESG – environmental, social and corporate governance – criteria. Sales of ESG funds consequently hit record-high levels last year. The numbers are impressive. According to data from Morningstar, total assets under management in sustainable funds climbed 29% in 2020 to USD 1.7 trillion. The net inflow of investor capital even accelerated further at the end of the year. In the fourth quarter alone, ESG funds took in USD 152 billion, an increase of 88% year-on-year. At the same time, the growing demand has an ever-broadening array of sustainable offerings to choose from. Mutual fund companies around the world launched 196 new “green” funds in the last three months of 2020 alone. Europe remained the leading market by far for sustainable investment funds, accounting for around three-quarters of all fund inflows and new fund launches.

An irreversible trend But this picture, which is primarily formed by the varying preferences of private investors in different regions around the globe, can easily convey a misleading image.

Fact is, the trend toward a preference for a sustainable investment style is on the rise worldwide. A recent survey of 200 institutional investors around the world by MSCI verifies this. Of the investors questioned in the USA, 78% said they would like to increase their amount of assets managed in accordance with ESG principles.

Elsewhere, the share of survey respondents that would like to do the same is 68% in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region and 79% in Asia. The majority of institutional investors (76%) are of the opinion that companies with a high ESG rating have gotten through the pandemic more resiliently and have treated stakeholders, like their employees and suppliers, better than other companies have. The importance of the social aspect of ESG and issues such as social inequality as a result of COVID-19 has thus been upgraded. In any case, 36% of the investors interviewed want to place greater emphasis on the social aspect in the future.

ESG was a fringe concept 20 years ago and was at most a niche five years ago, but it looks destined to join the mainstream for good during this decade. And while politics in Europe has long been a driver of this trend, similar signals are now increasingly coming from other regions of the world. China, for instance, announced last autumn that it intends to substantially reduce its CO2 emissions and become climate-neutral by 2060.

But the greatest political momentum right now is coming from the USA, where the new president, Joe Biden, signed an executive order to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord on his very first day in office. He also scrapped the construction of the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline. Biden wants to invest USD 2 trillion to advance an energy transition and environmental justice and wants to achieve completely “clean” electricity production by 2035. The importance of the green agenda to the US president is evidenced not least by one of his political appointments: Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry to be his Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, thereby bringing an experienced chief negotiator on board while also creating a new cabinet-level position in the US federal government

The sustainable investing theme has gained huge momentum that continues unabated. “Green” mutual funds are registering record-high net inflows of money, and institutional investors are increasingly integrating ESG aspects into their investment strategies.

And government policymakers are also going green more than ever before.

Sustained inflows | ESG funds are enjoying growing popularity Inflows into sustainable investment funds, in USD billion 150

100

50

0 Q1/18

Q2/18

Q3/18

Q4/18

Q1/19

Europe

Q2/19

Q3/19

USA

Q4/19

Q1/20

Q2/20

Q3/20

Q4/20

Rest of the World

Sources: Morningstar, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021

11

The Back Page Asset classes & agenda

Performance as of 31 January 2021 Asset class

year-to-date

Cash

1 month

1 year

3 years

0

-0.1%

-0.6%

-2.0%

Cash EUR

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-1.2%

Cash USD

0.0%

0.0%

0.5%

5.3%

Fixed Income

0

-0.7%

2.2%

11.1%

-1.0%

7.5%

16.8%

Cash CHF

-0.1%

Sovereign bonds

-0.7%

Corporate bonds

-1.0%

Microfinance

0.5%

Inflation-linked bonds

-0.7%

High-yield bonds

0.2%

Emerging markets bonds

-1.4%

Insurance-linked bonds

0.3%

Convertible bonds Equities

2.4%

-0.8%

Switzerland

-1.4%

Europe

-1.3%

UK

-0.7%

USA

-1.0%

Emerging markets

3.0%

Alternative assets

2.6%

Gold

-2.7% -3.5% -0.2%

Currencies EUR/USD

0.0%

GBP/USD

0.2%

5.3%

18.0%

-1.4%

2.7%

15.0%

0.3%

5.2%

12.5%

2.4%

39.6%

53.6%

-0.8%

12.9%

28.0%

-1.4%

0.1%

20.7%

-1.3%

-0.6%

3.7%

-0.7%

-10.9%

-6.7%

-1.0%

19.4%

40.6%

3.0%

25.2%

6.0% -10.8%

2.6%

7.0%

-2.7%

16.3%

37.4%

-3.5%

3.2%

23.4%

-0.2%

6.2%

5.5%

-0.7%

9.4%

-2.2%

0.0%

1.1%

-6.5%

0.3%

3.8%

-3.4%

0 -0.7%

EUR/CHF

10.4% 19.9%

0

Commodities

Hedge funds

1.8% 6.0%

0

Global

Real estate Switzerland

0.5% -0.7%

0.3%

On our Agenda February 17: US retail sales Retail sales in the USA have continually fallen over the last three months, due in part to pandemic containment measures and growing holes in Americans’ pocketbooks. The latest numbers may now point back upward again thanks to new stimulus checks from the US Treasury.

March 4: OPEC+ meeting The January OPEC+ meeting of the oil cartel members and other petroleum-producing countries like Russia reflected the disunity between them. Saudi Arabia ultimately committed to substantially cutting its output to stabilize the price of oil. The March meeting promises a need for further discussions.

March 5: Start of the National People’s Congress in China Under the chairmanship of Xi Jinping, the National People’s Congress is scheduled to pass a new fiveyear plan for the years 2021 through 2025 at its annual session. Alongside qualitative growth targets, environmental protection will also stand in the spotlight: China wants to become CO2-neutral by 2060.

12

Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021

13

This document constitutes neither a financial analysis nor an advertisement. It is intended solely for informational purposes. None of the information contained herein constitutes a solicitation or recommendation by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to take any other actions regarding any financial instruments. Furthermore, the information contained herein does not constitute investment advice. Any references in this document to past performance are no guarantee of a positive future performance. Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG assumes no liability for the completeness, correctness or currentness of the information contained herein or for any losses or damages arising from any actions taken on the basis of the information in this document. All contents of this document are protected by intellectual property law, particularly by copyright law. The reprinting or reproduction of all or any parts of this document in any way or form for public or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited unless prior written consent has been explicitly granted by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG. 14

Monthly Market Monitor - February 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

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