Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG - Monthly Market Monitor September 2021 (EN)

Monthly Market Monitor

September 2021

Table of contents

Macro Radar In a Nutshell

Taking the pulse of economic activity

Our view on the markets

06

04

Satellite View Geopolitical heat map

Asset Allocation Notes from the Investment Committee

07

08

Theme in Focus

The Back Page

China is tightening the regulatory screws

ESG: Sustainability corner

Asset classes & agenda

A renewed dire climate warning

12

10 11

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021

3

In a Nutshell

Our view on the markets

No tapering (yet) The US Federal Reserve continues to take only tiny baby steps to exit monetary policy accommodation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell didn’t divulge any details about the start of tapering at the (virtual) Jackson Hole symposium. He only hinted that the requisite conditions for tapering could soon be met. But he is likely to let the cat out of the bag before this year is over. Meanwhile, officials at the European Central Bank are also slowly starting to think about scaling back bond purchases.

Statistical tailwind From a seasonal standpoint, the equity market traditionally faces somewhat stormier times in September and October. But if 2021 continues to follow in the footsteps of 2017, there won’t be any major turbulence this year. Although there are contradictory signals from a tactical perspective, robust corporate earnings, continued monetary policy accommodation and, last but not least, supportive stock buyback programs remain reassuring factors. And historical statistics likewise portend further share-price advances for the rest of this year.

The agony of (Bundestag election) choice The race for the chancellorship is wide open again just weeks ahead of Germany’s Bundestag elections. The probabilities of potential coalitions forming have been

freshly reshuffled in recent weeks. From today’s perspective, a coalition of three parties will probably be needed to form a new government. A red-green-red (Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party) scenario is now more than just a tail risk, and it would have adverse consequences for economic powerhouse Germany in the medium term.

China is tightening the regulatory screws Under the slogan “common prosperity for all,” the government of China is striving to root out socioeconomic inequalities and to secure the long-term legitimacy of the regime. Efforts toward this end are being undertaken initially at the expense of private enterprise, which is facing an increasingly tough regulatory crackdown. But there are bound to be winners in the long run even under the new regulatory regime.

A renewed dire climate warning The first part of the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published in August vehemently sounds an urgent alarm about unprecedented and partially irreversible global climate change. Intensive climate policy efforts are needed to avert a collapse. The price that greenhouse gas emitters have to pay for their ecological footprint plays a key role in this context – it is still (far) too cheap.

Chart of the Month The honeymoon is over | US President Biden is losing voter support Public job approval rating for the US president

Sources: Real Clear Politics, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

4

Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Joe Biden’s popularity has been in a continual descent in recent weeks. Against the backdrop of his hapless handling of the hasty and chaotic withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and yet another wave of COVID-19 infections in the United States, his public job approval rating has dropped eight percentage points since his inauguration in January. President Biden’s economic policy is also viewed a bit less favorably than before.

Falling job approval ratings (after the honeymoon of the first 100 days in office) are practically a typical phenomenon throughout the history of the US presidency and are a fate that also befell Presidents Obama and Trump. Nevertheless, the infrastructure plans and social reform proposals on Biden’s agenda this year have good prospects of succeeding. The same can’t be said, though, for the Democrats in the mid-term elections in autumn 2022.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021

5

Macro Radar

Taking the pulse of economic activity

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell passed up another chance in August to herald moves to begin ending the central bank’s ultraaccommodative monetary policy. Global economic activity, meanwhile, remains on a recovery path despite some isolated obstacles here and there.

US central bank moving at a snail’s pace shipping rates. Many of these elements, though, look Rarely have financial markets so anxiously awaited a set to drop out of the inflation equation by the start speech like the one delivered by Fed Chairman Jerome of 2022. Afterwards, inflation in the Eurozone is likely Powell at this year’s (virtual) Jackson Hole symposium, to settle down in a range between 1.5% and 2%, a bit and just as seldom could so little information be ex- above the level seen over the past decade. tracted from the discourse. In the wake of distinctly hawkish comments from some Fed officials in the …and turns the spotlight on the ECB weeks ahead of the symposium, intimations of reduc- Since the latest Eurozone inflation figures are already ing the central bank’s bond purchases wouldn’t have well above the fourth-quarter crest projected by the been astonishing. But there evidently still seems to be European Central Bank, officials in Frankfurt am Main disagreement among the members the Federal Open will probably (have to) adjust their forecasts upward at Market Committee. So, the Fed’s easing away from their policy meeting on September 9. They, too, must monetary policy accommodation continues to proceed increasingly ask themselves to what extent large-scale in tiny baby steps. But a tapering announcement is bond buying is still justifiable in the face of rising inflanonetheless likely before the end of this year because tion and an advancing economic recovery. The more although Fed officials do not want to act hastily, they critical voices on the ECB’s governing council are likely also don’t want to act irresponsibly. to become louder on this issue, and European tapering could already be forthcoming toward the end of this Eurozone inflation surges… year.

Inflation in the Eurozone jumped from 2.2% in July to 3.0% in August, far exceeding the consensus expecta- Consensus estimates 2020 2021 2022 tion (2.7%). We reiterate our view that the causes of GDP growth (in %) the elevated inflation in the Eurozone should in fact Switzerland -3.2 3.5 2.9 prove transitory, more so than in the USA. The surge Eurozone -6.8 4.7 4.4 in inflation in August (and in the months ahead) owes UK -9.9 6.9 5.4 particularly to energy prices, the expiration of Ger- USA -3.5 6.2 4.3 many’s VAT cut and other temporary factors including China 2.3 8.4 5.6 various supply-side bottlenecks (for microchips, for ex- Inflation (in %) ample) and continued stalled supply chains which, last Switzerland -0.7 0.4 0.5 but not least, are being reflected in skyrocketing freight Eurozone 0.3 2.0 1.5

Up tenfold | Freight shipping rates are getting more and more expensive Baltic Dry Index

UK

0.9

2.1

2.4

USA

1.3

4.2

2.9

China

2.5

1.3

2.3

Kaiser Partner Privatbank interest rates view Last

3M

12M

Key interest rates (in %) Switzerland

-0.75

→

↗

Eurozone

-0.50

→

↗

UK

0.10

→

↗

USA

0.25

→

↗

China

2.95

→

→

Switzerland

-0.32

→

→

Eurozone

-0.38

→

→

UK

0.72

→

→

USA

1.32

→

→

China

2.83

→

→

10-year yields (in %)

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 6

Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Satellite View Geopolitical heat map

The agony of (Bundestag election) choice risk to Germany’s economy and the financial markets Who will be Germany’s next federal chancellor? The lies in a red-green-red (Social Democrats, Greens, Left race unexpectedly is wide open again just weeks ahead Party) coalition, which was previously a tail risk but of the German Bundestag elections on September 26. in the meantime now has to be given a probability of In the wake of the first televised debate, the Social 15% to 20%. In a red-green-red scenario, higher taxes, Democrats and their candidate Olaf Scholz are actually a rollback of reforms and tighter regulation of certain even leading in some polls with a vote share of 25%. sectors of the economy would be likely, and over time This has freshly rescrambled the probabilities of poten- this could lead to slower trend growth for economic tial coalitions forming. Barring further polling surprises, powerhouse Germany. from today’s perspective a coalition of three parties is needed to form a new government. The Christian Dem- China & war in cyberspace ocratic Union, which has (co-)governed for the last 16 The USA’s precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan years, doesn’t necessarily have to be involved. On the and the attendant mayhem and anguish have capcontrary, a “traffic light” coalition bringing together the tured media attention in recent weeks. Human tragSocial Democrats, Greens and liberal Free Democrats edy unfortunately is a matter of little relevance for the has become a realistic prospect with a probability of financial markets. From a geopolitical perspective, the around 25%. It’s a scenario that would give no reason pullout further closes the book on the USA’s defense to expect any fundamental policy shifts and notewor- policy of the past two decades and enables Washingthy further fiscal easing compared to today. The bigger ton to devote more energy in the future to countering the threat from Asia – i.e. China. The conflict is taking place not just in the economy and increasingly in the South China Sea, but also in cyberspace. A potential cyberwar can already be viewed as a “gray rhino event” (a threat that is highly probable and highly impactful).

Cyberspace is the only unregulated area left where countries like China and Russia, but also Iran and North Korea, can inflict serious harm on Western nations.

Even US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has deemed a digital war a greater risk than a new financial crisis. The set of problems posed by a potential cyberwar are also becoming increasingly pertinent to businesses and thus the financial markets as well. One in twenty corporations these days explicitly discusses cyber risks in reporting disclosures compared to just one in fifty in 2013.

Geopolitical developments do not stop at the gates of the financial markets.

On the contrary, they have become an increasingly important influencing variable in recent years.

Our Satellite View takes a look at the major hotspots at the moment.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021

7

Asset Allocation

Notes from the Investment Committee

From a seasonal standpoint, the equity market traditionally faces somewhat stormier times in September and October.

But if 2021 continues to follow in the footsteps of 2017, there won’t be any major turbulence this year.

Asset Allocation Monitor -

+

-

Cash

Equities

Fixed Income

Global

Sovereign bonds

Switzerland

Corporate bonds

Europe

Microfinance

UK

Inflation-linked bonds

USA

High-yield bonds

Emerging markets

Emerging-market bonds

Alternative Assets

Insurance-linked bonds

Gold

Convertible bonds

Real estate

Duration

Hedge funds

Currencies

Structured products

US dollar

Private equity

+

Swiss franc Euro British pound

Equities: The travails of the equity strategist Moreover, now that the big (and easy) share-price • Anyone who wishes to “play” the stock market tactigains on the equity market are behind us, we are curcally is confronted at the moment with a wide arrently resharpening the focus on maintaining a qualray of partially contradictory signals. On one hand, ity bias. We see further upside potential for stocks in broad market indices have regularly been climbthe medium term in view of the solid earnings trend, ing from one new all-time high to the next, which continued monetary policy accommodation and, last on its own is a sign of strength. On the other hand, but not least, supportive corporate stock buyback though, the market is now being carried only by a programs. Over the longer term, however, the very small number of stocks. For example, despite record good equity performance of today (and yesterday) share prices on the New York Stock Exchange, only comes at the expense of future return potential in around two-thirds of the stocks that trade there are the years ahead. Investors should therefore further still above their 200-day moving averages. Adherents widen their field of vision to seek out private market of the Dow Theory also see risks because the Dow assets that promise higher future return potential.

Jones Transportation Index already peaked in May and recently has no longer been confirming the new Scorecard + highs hit by the Dow Jones Industrials Index. Finally, Macro small caps have been moving no more than sideways Monetary/fiscal policy for around half a year now. But whether one should Corporate earnings already have one foot out the door of the equity Valuation market in light of these risk points is the difficult-toTrend answer million-dollar question because an analysis Investor sentiment of various sentiment data reveals that that many market participants appear to have headed toward Fixed income: Have bond yields found a floor? the exit. Investor sentiment at least is no longer par- • Thanks to falling yields, money once again definitely ticularly bullish, and hedges against further price could be earned in recent months with (long-dated) dips are being set even on the tiniest correction. sovereign bonds. This time, though, the price rally • Against this backdrop, in our equity strategy we are in government debt securities was less a flight to trying to refrain from making large-scale tactical bets. safety in the face of further waves of COVID-19 inInstead, we continue to consider a balanced mix of fections and more a dismantling of oversold technigrowth stocks and cyclical exposure appropriate. cal conditions. Moreover, long-term market interest 8

Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

role in our asset allocation in the future particularly rates anticipated the inevitable cooling of economic given the dearth of decent investment opportunigrowth dynamics. Market expectations with regard ties and in view of their sound risk/return profile. to economic activity were a bit too optimistic in early summer and could only have been disappointed, but now the pendulum has recently swung back a bit Currencies: The SNB is intervening again too far in the opposite direction. The US Economic • EUR/USD: Global economic growth momentum has passed its peak, and the US Federal Reserve is inSurprise Index, for instance, is deep in negative tercreasingly showing signs of getting ready to exit its ritory at a reading of around minus 50 and is already ultra-accommodative monetary policy. This constelclose to levels that historically have coincided with lation constitutes the best of all worlds for the US a trend reversal. A return to upside data surprises dollar, so the EUR/USD exchange rate accordingly has soon in the midst of continued above-average ecofallen further over the past month. In the meantime, nomic growth suggests that 10-year government however, market participants have substantially rebond yields look poised to bottom out at the level duced their short positions in the greenback. So, the of their August lows (1.2% in the USA and –0.5% in chances are good that the euro will find a floor for the Germany). From there they should tend to resume time being at the 1.16–1.17 level against the dollar. rising in the medium term.

That could keep the horizontal trading range of the past year intact for longer.

Alternative assets: Real estate funds remain in demand • It’s been business as usual on the Swiss residential • GBP/USD: The Bank of England is also showing signs of returning monetary policy to normal. Besides real estate market this year: prices for houses and tracking inflation, the BoE is also explicitly keeping an condominiums have continued to climb steadily witheye on employment. This means that future interestout interruption, and even the COVID-19 pandemic rate and, ultimately, exchange-rate movements will hasn’t put a noteworthy dent in the price chart. The probably depend a bit more on labor market stasame goes for publicly traded Swiss real estate funds, tistics. In their baseline scenario, BoE officials now which have long since climbed back to new all-time anticipate an initial rate hike by as early as summer highs. The Swiss Real Estate Funds Index is up almost 2022. The British pound should continue to hold up 10% year to date. The investment vehicles’ premiums well in the months ahead with this wind of interestto net asset value (NAV) have risen in the meantime rate speculation in its sails. to new record highs above 60% in some cases. Even if we adjust the premiums to NAV for the contin- • EUR/CHF: The EUR/CHF exchange rate drifted downward to the 1.07 level in August. The Swiss National ued ultralow interest-rate level, they are still higher Bank appears to have intervened at this level to halt a than average and imply that this asset class is overfurther appreciation of the franc – at least that’s what valued to some degree. But its payout yields above the increase in SNB sight deposits implies. The weeks 2% compared to the current –0.4% yield on Swiss ahead will reveal just how big the SNB’s intervention Confederation bonds continue to make it clearly the appetite is and where its “pain threshold” lies. Since more attractive alternative for many investors. Indithe “fair value” of the EUR/CHF exchange rate is conrect investments in real estate remain a key portfolio stantly falling due to comparatively lower inflation component (and a solid hold position from a tactical in Switzerland, more aggressive interventions in the standpoint) for us as well. In fact, alternative assets currency market seem less and less justified. tied to real estate look poised to play an even bigger This year’s performance of the US equity market is very reminiscent of 2017: there have hardly been any corrections, but instead a steady ascent from one new alltime high to the next. The S&P 500 index’s last 5%-plus correction was more than 200 trading sessions ago. In the meantime, the blue-chip index has already hit more than 50 new record highs this year (standing record: 77 days in 1995). The stock index of the 500 largest publicly traded US companies is already up more than 15% for the year through August 31. Statistically, this means that the prospects for the rest of 2021 also look good because in recent decades, the S&P 500 consistently continued to climb higher in this case except in 1986 and 1987 (–25%). And something else argues against a sharp drop in the near term: recent months have already seen some corrections beneath the surface in sectors that were previously the most hyped ones, such as hypergrowth stocks (ARK Innovation ETF), SPACs and IPOs.

Chart in the Spotlight Correction beneath the surface | Air has already escaped from bubble candidates S&P 500 index vs. speculative market segments

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021

9

Theme in Focus

China is tightening the regulatory screws

Under the slogan “common prosperity for all,” the government of China is striving to root out socioeconomic inequalities and to secure the long-term legitimacy of the regime. Efforts toward this end are being undertaken initially at the expense of privately held corporations, which are facing an increasingly tough regulatory crackdown. What’s next for the economy and investors?

Private sector enterprise under pressure Privately held corporations in China have been facing harsh headwinds for months now. First, the recordbreaking IPO of Ant Group, China’s largest fintech company, was halted at the last minute last November after its founder, Jack Ma, criticized the country’s stateowned banks in language deemed excessively scathing (and angered the government in other ways as well).

Then in mid-July, Chinese officials took aim at ridehailing company Didi Chuxing for alleged questionable customer data security practices. And shortly thereafter things got even worse: China’s USD 100 billion private education industry was barred from continuing to operate on a for-profit basis and was banned from raising new capital and seeking listings on stock exchanges.

The government’s crackdown on the e-commerce, fintech, gaming and education sectors has been reflected year-to-date also in international stock-trading venues, where Chinese technology indices intermittently plunged by more than 50% in Hong Kong and New York.

China’s domestic Star Market 50 index, which includes semiconductor chip and electric car manufacturers (that are not on the government’s radar screen), is well in positive territory in contrast.

“Common prosperity for all” As arbitrary as the government’s actions might seem at first glance, they actually follow a clearly laid plan that President Xi Jinping unveiled to the public in August under the slogan “common prosperity for all” and which looks set to shape China’s domestic politics for

Investors are changing horses | Internationally listed tech stocks are particularly under pressure Chinese technology indices

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 10

Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

the coming decades. The government is aiming to reduce the social and economic imbalances that have accumulated over the last 40 years of torrid growth and to ultimately strengthen the power of the Communist Party. Although the finish line in 2049 – the centennial anniversary of the People’s Republic of China – seems far away, issues like ever-widening income and wealth inequality, poor public services and often inadequate social insurance are to be addressed gradually to fortify the middle class. Carrying on with business as usual is not an option for China’s government leaders because the widening imbalances threaten to destabilize the existing regime. That’s why right from the outset, the Xi administration has continually taken up the public’s most pressing concerns and has enacted vigorous policies, for example, against environmental pollution, corruption and excessive indebtedness. The government’s current campaigns should be construed the same way against this backdrop.

Stop-and-go is the most probable scenario Beijing’s vision of creating a better-regulated, higher-earning and more heavily taxed society certainly shouldn’t be underestimated. However, China has a mixed track record of carrying out plans because its long-term ambition of becoming a wealthy country by the middle of this century must constantly be balanced against near-term growth prospects. So, reform initiatives are likely to get deferred if the post-pandemic economic recovery slows too much. Since economic indicators in China have already cooled down significantly over the past several months, the Politburo signaled in July that it will ease its foot off the brake going forward.

This means that fiscal policy is soon likely to be loosened again. The same goes for monetary policy, an area which saw the People’s Bank of China already lower the reserve requirement ratio for banks in July. The window of opportunity for further tightening the regulatory screws isn’t closed, though, at least as long as the markets don’t stage a bigger rebellion. The weeks ahead therefore look destined to be shaped by ongoing uncertainty about the longer-term implications that stricter regulation will have for corporate earnings. From a tactical perspective, however, shares of Chinese tech giants, which can now be had at much cheaper valuations than before, could soon become attractive again. And we continue to consider Chinese growth stocks interesting for the longer term as well because there are bound to be longterm winners also under the new regulatory regime.

ESG: Sustainability corner A renewed dire climate warning

Clear facts…

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first installment of its long-awaited sixth climate assessment report on August 9. IPCC experts describe the physical principles of climate change throughout its nearly 4,000 pages. They make it clear that humans bear sole responsibility for the current climate crisis and that the Earth will warm by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (compared to the pre-industrial age) by 2040 even in the best-case scenario. The IPCC report is bound to form a vital basis for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference to be held in Glasgow just two months from now. Given the harrowing findings of the report, hopefully it can serve as a powerful tool with which to induce governments to take greater responsibility in protecting the Earth’s climate, because countries’ voluntary emissions-reduction pledges to date are far too insufficient to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (let alone 1.5 degrees). …and implications The latest assessments by the IPCC are also a call to action for the world of finance. Although the financial economy cannot solve the climate crisis on its own, the finance industry nonetheless must make greater effort to apprehend how investment capital can bring about more sustainable outcomes in the real world. In this context, at the level of individual investors, it is important first of all to know the ecological footprint of one’s investment portfolio. Kaiser Partner Privatbank has developed comprehensive sustainability reporting precisely for this purpose. It enables you to spot companies in your portfolio that have a bad net climate impact and to accordingly figure out alternative investment options. But further climate policy steps are also especially needed alongside the ongoing “greening” of the investment sector because measures enacted thus far aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions lag much too far behind reality.

One of the most effective climate policy tools in this context is CO2 emissions pricing within the framework of an emissions-trading system (ETS) or carbon dioxide taxation. According to the World Bank, there were a total of 64 CO2-pricing initiatives in operation around the globe as of August 2021. They cover approximately

21.5% of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

The growth momentum of these new pricing initiatives has been unequivocally positive over the last two years, but one (big) fly in the ointment relativizes this seeming success: the majority of CO2 prices today are still extremely low. Only a little less than 4% of emissions are subject to a pricing mechanism that charges more than USD 40 per ton of CO2, the minimum that experts at the World Bank estimate is needed to reach the 2015 Paris climate accord targets. An analysis of just how much companies actually have to pay for their emissions also yields unsatisfactory findings. The data needed to perform this analysis come from the Carbon Disclosure Project, which annually collects emissions data on the vast majority of publicly traded companies around the world. According to a study by JP Morgan based on that data, only 32% of reporting companies in 2019 were subject to a CO2-pricing mechanism, and even those that already are today very rarely have to bear substantial costs for their ecological footprint in the end. Emissions costs for companies effectively reach a substantial size only in the energy production and infrastructure sectors, where they amount to 4% to 6% of EBITDA. So, despite some encouraging signs from politicians, our society and decision makers still have a lot of climate policy work ahead. Since CO2 pricing is considered one of the most efficient policy mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, existing approaches need to be further improved and especially must be enforced more stringently.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warns loudly of climate collapse.

Meanwhile, companies are still paying a (much) too low price for their ecological footprint.

Read on:

It’s getting hotter and hotter| Humanity’s footprint is unmistakable Global warming of the Earth’s surface (anomaly 1901-2000 base period)

Sources: NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, Kaiser Partner Privatbank Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021

11

The Back Page Asset classes & agenda

Performance as of 31 August 2021 Asset class

YTD

1 Month

1 Year

3 Years

Cash CHF

-0.1%

-0.7%

-2.0%

EUR

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.3%

USD

0.0%

0.2%

4.1%

Sovereign bonds

-0.3%

-0.4%

9.9%

Corporate bonds

-0.4%

2.4%

20.4%

Fixed Income

Microfinance

0.2%

3.1%

10.2%

Inflation-linked bonds

0.0%

6.2%

23.4%

High-yield bonds

0.6%

8.6%

20.1%

Emerging-market bonds

1.1%

4.5%

23.6%

Insurance-linked bonds

0.3%

4.4%

11.9%

Convertible bonds Equities

1.5%

23.3%

58.3%

Global

2.7%

30.1%

50.8%

Switzerland

2.3%

24.1%

45.8%

Europe

2.5%

32.4%

29.3%

UK

1.9%

23.8%

5.2%

US

2.9%

31.3%

65.1%

Emerging markets

2.4%

18.8%

23.9%

-0.3%

30.9%

14.6%

0.0%

-7.8%

51.0%

-0.9%

19.7%

39.5%

0.6%

9.0%

13.1%

EUR/USD

-0.5%

-1.1%

1.8%

EUR/CHF

0.6%

0.2%

-3.9%

GBP/USD

-1.1%

2.9%

6.1%

Alternative assets Commodities Gold Real estate Switzerland Hedge funds Currencies

On our Agenda September 9: Liechtenstein Finance Forum Hundreds of high-caliber decision makers, executives and finance experts from the German-speaking world will convene in once more in Vaduz for a symposium on “The Future of Finance.” Kaiser Partner Privatbank will again operate a stand onsite at the Forum.

September 26: German Bundestag elections The Merkel era will definitively end this autumn after almost 16 years. A radical policy swivel is unlikely to occur even under new national leadership. Germany looks set to remain an anchor of stability in Europe even in the (likely) event that the Green Party is involved in the next government.

September 30: International Translation Day Language and its complex impacts on identity, communication, education and development are of strategic importance for people, the economic world and our planet. On September 30, the anniversary of the death of St. Jerome (the Bible translator), due tribute will be paid to the language professions.

12

Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021

13

This document constitutes neither a financial analysis nor an advertisement. It is intended solely for informational purposes. None of the information contained herein constitutes a solicitation or recommendation by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to take any other actions regarding any financial instruments. Furthermore, the information contained herein does not constitute investment advice. Any references in this document to past performance are no guarantee of a positive future performance. Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG assumes no liability for the completeness, correctness or currentness of the information contained herein or for any losses or damages arising from any actions taken on the basis of the information in this document. All contents of this document are protected by intellectual property law, particularly by copyright law.

The reprinting or reproduction of all or any parts of this document in any way or form for public or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited unless prior written consent has been explicitly granted by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG.

14

Monthly Market Monitor - September 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Publisher:

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG Herrengasse 23, Postfach 725 FL-9490 Vaduz, Liechtenstein HR-Nr. FL-0001.018.213-7 T: +423 237 80 00, F: +423 237 80 01 E: bank@kaiserpartner.com

Editorial Team:

Oliver Hackel, Senior Investment Strategist Roman Pfranger, Head Private Banking & Investment Solutions Cornelia Kopf, Marketing Specialist, 21iLAB AG

Design & Print:

21iLAB AG, Vaduz, Liechtenstein

DE210312

kaiserpartner.bank