Issuu

Monthly Market Monitor

May 2022

Table of contents Iv NRoo

Macro Radar Tl]vPRÉoÉ}(}v}u] É ]˙

Our view on the markets

Satellite View GÉ}}o]oRÉu

Aoo}}v N}É(}uRÉIvÉuÉv}uu]'É C É

TRu]vF}

TRÉFÉ]PRÉv]vPRÉ]vÉrÉÉ screw. What now?

`}`v D P P]Bvl]vPC}v Small(er) stocks hit it big

The Back Page Asset classes & agenda

18 Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

In a Nutshell

O]`}vRul

USFoR l]vPv˘] D]}vÉvPo˙ R]PR ]vG}v v v }ÉRÉÉ Éu r ployment market – this pair of concerns is keeping US central bankers busy at the moment and looks set to accelerate moves to return US monetary policy to norr mal. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently reserved RÉ }}v } vÉlÉ u}É Rv RÉ (} rÉ point rate hikes currently priced in for this year. In any case, the world’s leading central bank is unlikely to R}` v˙ }v]É}v (} RÉ ~`Él .vv]o u r kets in the near future. Ev}(R}vr`˙ Foo]vP É ]ÉU R]PR }oo]˙U v u]É É} v ˙oÉ }}v W ]PR (}u RÉ }ÉU RÉ vÉ` investment year has made it clear that the days of ever ]]vP É ]É u˙ É }É (} RÉ uÉ É]vPX I `]oo }o˙ lÉ }uÉ uÉ } ]PÉ RÉ RvPÉ ]v RÉu}vÉ˙}o]˙ÉP]uÉXo]'oÉ A u}É}oo]˙R] year would not be surprising also in light of the US É]Évo ˙oÉX US u]Éu ÉoÉ}v ˙É É r ]}voo˙ u]ÉrRvrÉPÉ}vÉ(} RÉulÉX TRR]v]l WR ] Vo]u] Pv } `]R R] r'o]vP É }v Russia’s border with Ukraine? The West is hardly likely

CR }(R M}vR RP]u RvPMn TRÉu}v]v}(vÉPÉr˙]Éo]vPÉ ] R]vl]vP Market value of negative-yielding bonds (in USD trillion) 4% 2% 0 -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12%

Jan

Feb

Mar 1999

Apr 2005

May 2013

June 2015

July

Aug

2018

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl 4

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Sep

2021

Oct

2022

Nov

Dec

to be willing to heed his demands, and Russia would RÉ oÉv˙ } o}É ]v RÉ Év }( v uÉ }vG] X H}`ÉU É u]o]˙ É o}v Év]} ] u}É Rv i ]o ]lX I( RÉ }vÉ }( C]uÉ v out to be a blueprint of future moves by Russia, the PÉ R S}o]o ulÉ RÉ R} oÉP_ `}o vÉÉ RÉoÉ oo o˙X U }(} ]oul˘}v WÉ ]}voo˙ É]É` } ÉP] É oo}}v v É } ]o ulÉ ˘ÉÉ }v (} RÉ vÉ˘ .É ˙É RÉ }( É R vÉ` ]vÉuÉv ˙ÉX TRÉ R} É]}v }( } É]É` .v]vP ] R }l Éu]v u}É 'É Rv }v v R oÉvÉ É É É}u]vP Év u}É ÉoÉv than before. B˙R]PRU ooo}` The human psyche likes to play pranks on investors }v RÉ .vv]o ulÉX B˙]vP ~}} oÉ v Éoo]vP ~}} oÉ W u]vP }( ]vP É RÉ ÉPÉ investor to achieve a much worse performance than RÉ } RÉ `}o ˙ (}oo}`]vP ]uoÉ ˙rvrR}o ÉP˙X TRÉ v }`v }( RÉ ]v]oo˙ R˙É v ouÉo˙ (ooÉv ARK Ivv}}v ETF }]É ]] Éor`}o É˘uoÉ}(`Rv}}}X

Iv RÉ (É }( R]PR ]vG}v É U u}É v u}É central banks risk falling behind the proverbial curve. E˘É }v }( u}vÉ ˙ }o]˙ É v]vP } v}uo RÉR É v ooÉ(}` }uÉu}ÉU ]vP }uÉ }v rulÉ oÉvÉ ]v RÉ (}u }( ]]vP yields and falling prices as the new investment year P} vÉ `˙X TRÉ ˙]Éo }v r˙É S`] C}v(É É r }v }v Év }uÉ ˙ l ]v }]É É ] r }˙ v RÉ ˙]Éo }v ÉvRul GÉ uv B v o} scraped the zero line. The worldwide volume of negr Ér˙]Éo]vP }v } v]vP É vo˙ }É Éo}` RÉ USD ]oo]}v ul (} RÉ . uÉ ]vÉ A ]o X H}`ÉU É }v É oo o}vP `˙ (}u É]vP ' É ~`]R (É` É˘É }v X WRÉv ]vG r }v ] (}É ]vU ]vÉ uÉvrP É }v r oo˙ Éo]É P vÉÉ vÉPÉ É v ]( RÉ˙ É RÉo } u ]˙X TR] ulÉ ]vÉ É rÉ ]vP oÉ v r É oo RÉ u}É ]u} v P]v ]v X

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

Macro Radar

Tl]vPRo}(}v}u]]˙

In spite of geopolitical uncertainties and neverending disruptions to global merchandise trade, the major industrialized countries stayed on a GDP growth path in the first quarter of 2022. At the moment, (overly) high inflation rates pose a bigger peril for central banks than the risk of a recession.

N}]}v~(}Ru]vP }v}u] E ]˙ ]v RÉ}}vÉ E ˙É ]v˘v]}v É u}É]vRÉ.É`]R GDPP]v}(æXA9˙Ér }vr˙É ~v XA9 r}v É rÉX 'ÉBÉ rRvr expected April survey readings in the manufacturing and service sectors also indicate that a recession in the }}vÉ E ] o]lÉo˙ } É }]É R] ˙É É]É É r ]Évo˙R]v]}vvRÉ`]vUl]vÉX F]rÉ GDP ]v RÉ USA }vÉ ˙ v vvo r ]É XA9 É } PÉ ]v ]u} v vo drop in exports, but labor market indicators are pointr ]vP } }ÉRÉvP }v}u] É ]˙ v (}É RÉ US FÉoÉ RÉ}É lÉ}vX F]L˙]}]v S]vÉ vuÉ }( FÉ }8]o R Év ÉoÉPR]vP ær]r}]vÉR]lÉ(}`ÉÉlv}`URÉ]Piu in the federal funds rate on May 4 wasn’t surprising in RÉ ÉvX ÉvC ulÉ ˘ÉÉ }v Év]PÉ ] r }vo ær]r}]vÉ R]lÉ RÉ vÉ˘ `} FOMC uÉvP É X PÉÉ ] o} u}vvP }v RÉ }ÉE v CÉvo BvlU `R]R `]oo o]lÉ`]É PRÉv RÉ ]vÉrÉ rate screw by September at the latest or perhaps by as early as July. Pl]vG}v~v] Ruv ]vG}v v RÉ RÉ }( ] oÉ]vP } ]vÉ ˘ÉÉ }v }( vÉ R]PRÉ ]vG}v ]v RÉ ( É }vvÉ } }oÉ u]v }v }R ]É }( RÉ ov A X TRÉ oÉ vuÉ (} RÉ }}vÉ E RÉv[ PÉRRÉ É v]}vX o}l]vP C ]v XæA9U}E

r r

}vÉ]vG}v]v]o A }vÉP]v˘ÉÉ RÉ É ]} É u}vR[.PÉXR] B u˙ulRÉ˘É }(]vG}vX A]Pv].vool]v]vG}vR}o}}vo]ÉRÉU vÉ ](}vo˙u]vo˙}É uRÉuo+É É X TR}rCOVID}ou TRÉSARSrC}Vr}}v]u]v É }vUvRÉ P}ÉvuÉv}( R]v C u]v É i }vÉ ]vl r ]vP`]R]}É rCOVIDP˙ É XIRvÉ `]oo]vPR (}`]RRÉ]ÉÉ +É É }(RP˙ É in the form of an increasingly angry populace, massive losses to economic growth and further clogging of alr ˙É ]vÉ Po}oo˙ R]vX oR}PR A ]vG}v looks set to ease soon, beleaguered supply chains will o]lÉo˙ }v]É } vvP É RÉ }] (}u ] r ]vP É (}u RÉ RÉo]vÉ v˙uÉ }}vX MÉv`R]oÉU China’s 5.5% GDP growth target fades ever farther into the distance. C}vÉv É uÉ 2021

2. 5

5.3

2. 8

2.4

.5 7

3. 8

1 .6

USA

7 .5

3. 2

1 2.

China

81 .

4. 9

5.2 0.9

Iv(o]}v~]vA9 Switzerland

0 .6

2. 0

Eurozone

2.6

6. 5

2.6 7 4. 0.9

aK iser Partner Privatbank interest rates view

Key interest rates (in %)

Last

3. 4

6 .9

3. 0

2. 3

12M

Switzerland

-075.

Eurozone

-0.50

75 0.

USA

0. 5

China

2. 8 5

Switzerland

0. 8

Eurozone

0 .2 9

1.9

USA

2 1. 9

China

2. 8 4

10-year yields (in %)

04/2019

10/2019

04/2020

10/2020

04/2021

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl 6

2.4 1. 7

1.9

3. 6

Eurozone

China

2023

Switzerland

USA

Soo]v˘v]}vu}n SÉvuÉv]vRÉ}}vÉ E 'ÉÉ Rv(ÉÉ Eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index

2022

GDPP}`R~]v9A

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

10/2021

04/2022

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Satellite View G}}o]oRu

M}vPOvu}u standard of living would be the best means of reducing I ` ÉoÉo˙ oÉr ]v RÉ Év W `]R æXæA9 }( RÉPo]vP}o]}v]vFvÉX RÉ }ÉU EuuvÉo M}v ` RÉ . FÉvR É]Év} É PvÉ }v É Éu ]v }8É ]v RÉ Ul]vPSMo]vP R}PR_ ] }u]vP R u]v Éo˙ É PoÉ ]vÉ RÉÉoÉ}v }( JÉ CR]]v v]} 2002. This is a rare bit of good news for France, but IL}}l]vP RÉ ]] ]v Ul]vÉU É˙ ]Pvo (} } r o}(}Ul]vÉvRÉÉvÉ}ÉE v}vvÉvÉ r mism – even the slightest one – in recent weeks has cause they are all spared the nightmare named Le Pen. ÉvvÉPÉÉRuÉXN}`RÉvol`ÉÉ Év UvÉ M}vU FvÉ `]oo o]lÉo˙ }vvÉ } É v Év r RÉ`]vPRÉ É (]oÉ}}É}PÉU} P]vÉ}(P}`Rv}PÉ]v}ÉE vRÉWÉÉv SÉ.ÉÉ vÉrÉo}v_Év]}}É É r oo]vÉ `]oo u}o˙ ˙ v].É ]v ] É}vÉ } RÉ }u]vP oÉ v oÉ Éo]X IvÉU RÉ }]o]˙ R]vRÉXM}É}ÉURÉ}rEUoÉR] É ]}}( of months of muddling through has increased to over President Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and æ9A U]v}]É`XVo]u]PvRuÉ]oÉR Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi will probably conr RÉ }v É RÉ }( R] SÉ]o u]o]˙ }É}v_ ] vÉ } É (}` `]R }ÉE v ]vÉP}vX B focused on eastern and southern Ukraine and that he LÉ RÉ ÉoÉ}v ] (}É É RÉ ÉoÉ}vP M}v o} intends to completely occupy those parts of the counr vÉÉ } (ÉÉ v R] oÉP]oÉ ui}]˙ ]v RÉ FÉvR ˙X HÉ `]oo Ro˙ É ]vo]vÉ} Rv l}vÉÉ o]uÉv˙ ÉoÉ}v ]v JvÉ ]v }É } É oÉ } territory. That is unacceptable to Ukraine. Ukraine is }vv}o˙P}Év +É É Éo˙ }]oÉ}ÉRÉ willing to put up sustained resistance and arguably may vÉ˘ .É ˙ÉX L v} oÉU RÉ ÉoÉ}v ]} Év É oÉ }( }]vP R (} o}vP uÉ ]( ] É r must recognize that he is governing a divided country: É]É 8]Év } (}u RÉ WÉX UvÉ RÉÉ æA9 }( FÉvR }ooP}É}É (} v]É ]PR} premises, this would mean that the worst phase of the oÉL }( ÉvÉ ]v RÉ . }vU RÉ A9 }É ] r war has just begun. }vulÉ É RÉo}`Év}]vÉııUv three million voters cast invalid or blank ballots. Further reforms and gains in employment, real wages and the

France has voted, and Europe can breathe a sigh of relief. Emmanuel Macron’s clear election victory is the best (geo) political news in quite a while. A look at the situation in Ukraine, however, reveals little good to find there. Time is running out on our “ceasefire and de-escalation” scenario. “Muddling through” is becoming ever more likely.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

oo}}v AÉA

N}(}uRIvuvC}uu]'

The rollercoaster ride on equity markets continued in April. Meanwhile, sentiment has reached low ebb. The question is whether this is enough for a sustained rally in share prices.

A Aoo}}v M}v]} r

E ]]

F]˘Iv}u

Global

Sovereign bonds

Switzerland

Corporate bonds

}ÉE

Microfinance

Iv(o]}v ro]vlÉ }v H]PRr˙]Éo }v uÉE P]vPrulÉ}v

USA uÉE P]vPulÉ Aov]A

IvvÉro]vlÉ}v

Gold

Convertible bonds

Real estate

Duration

Hedge funds

C v]

Structured products

US dollar

P]ÉÉ ]˙

Swiss franc }E B ]]R}v

]E PR}oo}}lul ]}]vvP]vÉ}o}}l PÉv]RÉX Ov • H]PR ~]o˙}oo]˙ ` }vv}uv]}v }v the whole, however, the majority of companies thus RÉ]˙ É ulÉP]v}ÉRÉou}vRXTRÉVIX (RÉ˘ÉÉvo˙ É [v]vP É ˘ÉÉ }vU }oo]˙}uÉ]v É RÉUSA}}liv}ÉRÉ RÉ˙]]v]}X É vA v]vP É ]}v É v ul (}RÉ R]uÉ oÉ˙ R] ˙ÉX MÉv r }o˙}]É É Rvl}RÉ˙É P}}}. `R]oÉUUS}l]v]ÉWoÉ˙RÉR É rRÉ˙N performance by the energy and basic materials secr – once again plunged by more than 10% in the span of }Xv}` B RR}É`}}É RÉoÉ˙R u}vRv˙ÉÉ Ér}rÉo}`XTRÉ}vv r a very good runup lately, one should refrain at the prer }v}(RÉ}ooÉ}É]ÉRuuÉ]vÉ É }vÉ r vÉ uÉ(}uo]vPvÉ`X É WÉ]vÉ}vvÉ uÉv}˘ÉÉ uÉo}`RSv}uoo˙_R}o]Pv](˙ to recommend pursuing a balanced mix of sectors and vvÉ }RÉ}É}v~ÉR ÉC ]vRÉS}o]PRX investment styles. }o B ]R É RÉ˙}(S˙RÉ]_v}` É }ÉM Iv PÉv]vÉ É ulÉU vÉPÉ vuÉ É v Scorecard readings lose their meaningfulness as contraindicar r + }Xv]} É A ]v`R]R]rR]l]vP É ˙oÉ} Macro 04/2022 PG}v˙v]}vuÉ É vvvÉ }RÉ}lr Monetary/fiscal policy ulÉP]uÉ É }(RÉo˙Éu]'Éo˙ooR Corporate earnings a low probability at the moment, but at least cannot Valuation vÉÉ o˙oÉ}XTR]vÉ ooRÉu}ÉÉ r Trend son for investors to implement the least expensive Investor sentiment RÉPÉ}]oÉ]vRÉ]}}o]}}(} ÉÉ R an event. F]˘]v}uPvA • GÉ É A }v}(RÉvÉ}vÉu}vP]vÉ}v • Ruv]vG}vvRÉoÉÉ }v}(RÉUSrÉ o} É vÉ ]v RÉ }vP}]vP .r}vP É R]l]vP˙oÉ}v É ]vÉ}[u}}v É P]v]v season. The share prices of individual companies have ]o A XvÉ E RÉ }Éu}vP US FÉoÉ RÉÉ }( r been moving by an average of more than 4% on the .]oRÉ}lÉv}]vvÉ `ÉlÉ ]v(}}( oÉÉ É }(oÉ ]o}ÉU RÉ}vPÉR]L]vP ]ÉÉ }(]P]vÉrÉR]lÉ É XP]v A R]l}U vÉ ]vÉRÉ(}R}( É XIvÉ}RÉ ]]vPr˙É˙]Éo}ÉRÉu}vR]v[} ]vÉ]vPo˙vÉ vP É RÉ`RÉ(}uRÉR+ (}RÉÉ voRÉ˙R`vo}É}RÉvÉ˘ since the start of this year – any company that issues round number at just under 3% in the USA and at alr 8

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

u}9A (}S`]}v(É C }v É }vvGÉuv }v `]R }RÉ`R]oÉ É }ÉvP P]v]vG r vB X F}u Rv]o É vo˙]U É É É R] }v RÉuÉ uÉX LÉ A oÉvPR˙oo É }( }} bond price trend is now extremely overstretched and performance, CTAs have experienced a renaissance a retracement is long overdue, even if it were only ]vvÉ u}vR }v RÉl }(}vP ]É}vo u}˙ É X TRÉ }]}v]vP }( ulÉ]vU ]É vÉ ]v }uu}]É ~` v }v who are underweight in bonds by now in view of the ~}`v`XT}]}vo}É}(vÉ v vP É ]Éo]vÉ É ]vÉRÉ}(R]˙ÉU }(RÉ]u}ÉRÉ]llÉv}+ É U˘}É É o} (}ÉR}` }v}o]}vX M}É}ÉU .˘Ér }oÉvÉouÉ É o˙R}o]Éoo˙É r ]v}uÉ]ÉÉ WoÉ]vRÉUSAWo}`o˙ É É r oÉuÉvÉ`]R]ÉrulÉX É }u]vPP]v É ' XTRÉo}}uÉ B PUSPPÉ A PÉ }v B IvÉ˘[˙]Éo ]lRÉ É ]]Év ˙]Éo v] C PUS}ooo]u}v`R]PR of the S&P 500 Index meanwhile amounts to more • UR E lUSDPIvG}v}ÉvvÉ ]PPÉ}oÉu]v than 2 percentage points, and the TINA argument RÉUSARv]}É]vRÉ}}vÉ E URÉ}vG] RRÉ]É v}oÉvÉ}}l]Poo˙o}]vP ]v Ul]vÉ R}uo˙ É (É`É ]u}v}É r }vXS}U(}uov}]vU]ulÉvÉÉ v}u]]˙]vuÉA ]XTR[`R˙RÉUSFÉoÉ (}]vÉ}}]É}}o]}}v}RÉvR É r RÉÉ ] o]lÉo˙ } PRÉv RÉ ]vÉrÉÉ ` mark level and to scale back excessive underweights in (Évu}É(}É(oo˙RvRÉ}ÉE vvo ÉC bonds, but to do no more than that because accordr vl B ]v~ou}v˙}vÉ]oÉv]} É XH}ÉR ]vP}}u}ÉoUr˙ÉUSTÉ˙}o.v]É É o˙ RÉ}É R(}vG}}`ÉRÉÉ ˙RÉvÉ head toward a yield level of 3.5% in the medium term, ovPÉ ]vRÉUR E lUSD˘RvPÉ É É}o}` É RÉ which would imply further price declines. And safe 1.05 mark. The trend remains pointed downward. ~P}ÉvuÉv}v]v}ÉE `]ooPo˙u]v É • GBPlUSDPTRÉ]]vP}}(o]]vP]}]vPvuÉ É v v'(} É ]É}uÉuÉ˙ÉX u}vPRÉ]R B o]X}v}u] E P}`R]vRÉUK threatens to stagnate in the second half of this year, ov A P]].}v D U]].}v v]vG}v˘ÉÉ }v]l]vv]vP}}(}v}oX • Investment year 2022 thus far, with its big price der Ho˙v˙`RÉoÉÉ ]RÉ]l}(PG}v]PPÉ clines in stocks and bonds, has illustrated how imporr Rv ]v RÉ UKX TRÉ ]R B }v}]vPo˙ ] ]v v]É].}v]XoÉA vÉR}o É vÉ RÉ 'ÉÉ XHÉU É }}Uv}R]vPu}ÉRvuÉ r ]vÉPo}u}vÉv}( u]˘É}}o]} RÉ˙É U porary retracement bounce can be expected for the v ]É].}v ] l]vPvÉ `]R]v R] uo( r uÉ]vP É X eted asset class. This way there ideally is always one or • UR E lCHFPIvG}vRv}`o}}uÉ É v]É]v uooÉvÉ ]ÉRv}+Éo}ÉR]É S`]Éovv (}RÉ S`]N}vovl B X IvÉ r elsewhere. Whoever would like to protect their purr oÉRÉSNB}oÉ]u}vÉ˙}o]˙P]uÉ É v R]vP}`É(}u ]vG}v ]o]lÉ`]ÉÉ É }RÉÉ (v}}o(}uvP]vP]vG}vU`R]R `]R]É].É]vÉuÉv}R~RoÉv]v means more open space for the currency on its apr gold and real estate, for example) because protectors ]}v É RXLÉB RÉoo}+ É o}` É ]˙URÉ P]v]vG}v}v}oo`}l]ÉÉ o˙RÉuÉ UR E lCHF ˘RvPÉ É É v}` o}}lÉ} ]L ]É r uÉX TÉvr(}oo}`]vPP]É É ~}rooÉTAC o} `˙}vRÉXul(}RÉuÉ]vP É X vlu}vPRÉ]É].ÉR˘R]] É o}`}Éo r

GÉ}}o]o vÉ]vÉU ]vG}v (Év ouuÉ r ]vPUSRv}o}P˙ É }É R]PRG˙Éo]lÉMÉ~(}uÉo˙ FÉ}}l v NÉo]˘ W RÉ[É o}vP o]}( }vÉv plaguing investors, and this mixture of woes has taken }oo }v US]o É ]vÉ}vuÉ É vU `R]R RvÉ }`v ]v RÉ u (}]É `R]oÉ v}`X oo]RvÉ B uoÉ(}uRÉuÉÉ v}RÉoo É ]v]o A UR]«vP ]o}`ÉoÉoÉ ]vÉııXOvo˙æX9A }(R}É˙ÉÉ counted themselves in the bull camp of investors looking }u]oo˙}RÉ(É}(}lrulÉ(}uvÉ É (}RÉvÉ˘Ro(r˙ÉX˘ÉE uÉ]vP É o]lÉRÉvÉ É useful as contraindicators and have historically presaged }ÉrÉPÉvÉ XS]vÉRÉ]vÉ}v}(RÉ˙É ]v ıU RÉÉ RÉ vÉ }É}v }]v where the share of bulls was less than 20%. In 30 of those uÉURÉSPæ]vÉ˘`]˘v`ÉoÉu}vR oÉ˙vPÉÉ }(9A v9A Uo˙ ÉÉ X

CR]vRS}o]PR TRooR}`]vP]vR}`on Boo]RvÉr˙Éo}` Share of bulls among US retail investors 70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

S}ÉPAuÉ]vA}]}v}(Iv]]oIvÉ}UK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

Theme in Focus

TRF]PRv]vPR]vr`XWRv}`M

The US Federal Reserve initiated a new rate-hiking cycle in March and is visibly accelerating the pace of returning its monetary policy to normal. What does this mean for financial markets? No two cycles are ever the same, so a concrete forecast cannot be derived from interest-rate history. However, looking back at the past helps to form an expectation. Our conclusion is that equity markets are likely to remain volatile. Yet there is hardly a way around stocks.

TR R }( ~o o}` ]v ] } Iv uv }( o ˙ÉU RÉ .vv]o ulÉ `ÉÉ v r ]vP i `} Ér}]v É R]lÉ ˙ RÉ US FÉ É o RÉ É (} X A Ro(r˙É oÉU RÉ ] r }v v}` o}}l }uoÉÉo˙ ]+ÉÉvX Iv MRU RÉ FÉ .É RÉ vP Pv (} vÉ` ÉrR]l]vP ˙oÉX Av v} i R U }iÉ É ]vÉÉrÉ ]É }o r ]vP u}É Rv ] }]v ˙ ˙ÉrÉv R ]vÉ É v ]É]v˙RÉulÉ]vRÉuÉ vuÉXWR [ more, rate hikes are unlikely to all be small ones. In É o˙ M˙ RÉ FOMC uÉÉ vP }voÉ `]R ]P æ r] r}]v R]lÉX EÉv RÉ S}É _ u}vP FÉ }( r .]o RÉ É vo˙ }lÉv } ]v (} }( É ]vP up the pace of returning monetary policy to normal. EÉv RÉ o FÉ }8]o É ]Évo˙ É RÉ US Évo bank behind the proverbial curve by now. If the fedr É o(v É oo˙ ]É ]lo˙ Évo˙ v r ]É˙ulÉ ]v~v˙RÉFÉ]Éo( U then around a year from now the policy rate in the USA`]ooo]lÉo˙oÉ ˙É RÉSvÉ o_]vÉÉrÉ oÉÉo R ] vÉ]RÉ }} R} ~É ]É v} }} }o ~uoÉ (} RÉ É}v}u˙X TRÉ FÉ É vo˙ É r uÉ R oÉÉo XA9X TRÉ u]oo]}vr}oo É }v v}` ] P WR } RÉ É R]lÉ uÉ v (} RÉ ~É ]˙ markets?

FP]uRvPn IvÉrÉÉ ˘ÉÉ }vRÉ]Év}v]Éo˙ Expected number of (25-basis-point) rate hikes by end-2022 12

0 01/21

04/21

07/21

10/21

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

01/22

04/22

D}v[ Y N} `} ]vÉÉrÉ ˙oÉ É RÉ uÉX TRÉ˙ ]+É (}uÉ R}RÉ ˙ }vU É URÉ vP}]v of the policy rate and especially by the macroecor nomic climate in which the cycles occur. Since every ˙oÉ ] ouÉo˙ v]ÉU ] ] Ro˙ }]oÉ } É r ]É }v (}É (} RÉ (É (}u ]vÉÉrÉ R]}˙X M}É}ÉU RÉÉ RÉ }vo˙ É v S}É _ ÉrR]l]vP ˙oÉ ~]XÉX }vÉ }v]vP }( u}É Rv ]vPoÉ É R]lÉ ]v RÉ o ˙É U } RÉ u r ple size is limited. Nevertheless, taking a look back at RÉ v RÉo } (}u v É˘É }v }( R}` r É ulÉ u˙ }Évoo˙ É (}u ]v RÉ É ahead. The maxim here, though, is: “Don’t trust a star R ˙} RÉv[ ]PPÉ ˙}Éo(X_ WRÉv vo˙ r ]vP ]vÉÉrÉ R]lÉ U RÉÉ É uv˙ ]+ÉÉv ways to work with the available data and to arrive at ]+ÉÉv .v]vP É o X WR uÉ (uÉ } ˙} (} ]vM D}É ]vPoÉ É R]lÉ o}vÉ }vÉ v ]vÉÉrÉ ˙oÉM Av `R ~}o]˙ ]vÉÉ } you use as a reference? Given the broad (manipular }v oÉU ] ulÉ ÉvÉ } o}}l ( l }]oÉ RÉR]}˙}( RÉFÉ []vÉÉrÉ }o]˙ and to analyze it as granularly as possible. The analysts at Ned Davis Research (NDR) took on this challenge v ÉP]v RÉ] vo˙] l ]v RÉ u] r ı U ]+É r ÉvvP É `ÉÉv o}` ˙oÉ ~R}É `]R }]}vo lengthy pauses between rate hikes), fast cycles (those `]R É R]lÉ ~ou} É ˙ FOMC uÉÉ vP v ]vPoÉ É R]lÉ ~v}vr˙oÉ X WÉ É o]É R] vo r ˙] (} R] oÉX

S ~u}vP }R R]vP u' LÉ [l] ]PR} RÉ.v]vP PRÉPoÉ }(`RÉ R r ÉR]lÉ`ÉÉo}`U(}}vÉr}+UUS}l}É by more than 10% on average over the twelve months ]} } É R]lÉX TRÉ oÉ ]vÉÉrÉ ˙oÉ o} . `]R R] 'É vX WR RÉvÉ LÉ v ]v]o rate hike depended in good part on the speed of the ˙oÉX AÉ P]vP } RÉ }É }v }É RÉ o ˙ÉÉ oR ]É}vRÉUSÉ ]˙ulÉ`ÉÉ ~]Pv].vo˙ R]PRÉ }R `ÉoÉ v u}vR LÉ v ]v]o É R]lÉX B `RÉv ÉrR]l]vP ˙oÉ } r É ]lo˙ v RÉ FÉ }PÉ ]Éo˙ PRÉvÉ RÉ ]vÉÉrÉ É` É R FOMC uÉÉ vPU }l R ] u}É ]8o˙ o]u]vP }É RÉ vÉ˘ `} years.

BR]vRn The Fed will increase the pace Expected number of "small" rate hikes (cumulative) at the upcoming Fed meetings 12 10.6 10.0

10 9.1 8.0

6.3

4.4

2.1

WR v É ]v(É É (}u RÉ ÉrR]l]vP ˙oÉ i É vo˙ ]v]É M APo˙ RÉ u} o]lÉo˙ ]v(ÉÉvÉ ] R É ]˙ ulÉ `]oo ˙ }v RÉ }ooÉ ]É ]v RÉ É RÉ É `É É ]É RÉ }É }( R] oÉU `É v É˘É } É `]L v R ]vÉÉrÉ R]lÉ ]v RÉ vÉ (ÉX WÉ }o oÉ ˙ É v .v }ÉoÉ l ]v PRR ]vÉÉr É É ]}˙ ]v RÉ USA ˙ u] r X Iv ]}vU ulÉ ]v RÉ } i v} }vo˙ } R]PRÉ ]vÉÉ U o}} ] vÉPRÉv]vP RÉ FÉ R]vl ] ovÉ RÉÉ X B RÉ o} }v]v ]oÉ o]v]vP É R] uÉU ou} }uoÉÉrR]l]vP˙oÉ`oÉ ˙]É]vRÉ uÉ }( RÉ ]v]o É R]lÉU `R]R uÉ v R RÉ } r É }v RÉ ˙]oo˙ É v ]v RÉ . ]˘ u}vR }( a fast cycle (see chart) may have already taken place. Iv v˙ ÉU RÉ S P æ ]vÉ˘ oÉ ˙ (o.ooÉ ] R] r }]o }É }v S} _ `]R ] É v ]vÉ u]'Év plunge by around 13%.

May 22

June 22

July 22

Sept 22

Nov 22

Dec 22

Feb 23

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Aov}vPn É˙E ÉrR]l]vP˙oÉ]]+ÉÉv Rate-hiking cycles since 1994

0 -260

-130

0 1994

-130

260

1999

2004

390

2015

520

2022

average

650

780

Business days to/from first hike

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

F~R]lYn …cause bigger bellyaches Performance of S&P 500 index before and after interest-rate hikes 130

120

110

100

80 -12

-9

-6

-3

Months prior/ Months past

Slow Cycles

Fast Cycles

Non-Cycles

All First Hikes

Current Cycle

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUNDRUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

N}o}vP}]n Price-earnings-ratio

Vo}vRÉ}ÉÉ

5 2005

2007

2009

2011

2013 S&P 500

2015

2017

2019

2021

Stoxx Europe 600

So, even though monetary policy is becoming more É ]ÉU } uÉ ]urÉ u }o}}l (} }l É r u]v }v É É É PPÉ ]v É u }( É o ]vÉÉ U`R]R É oo]vvÉPÉ É ]}˙]v]v r dustrialized countries, the monetary climate remains }uu}É (} }l X FRÉ u}ÉU }l É v} o}vPÉ }É ]É ]v RÉ `lÉ }( RÉ }É }v ]v É v `ÉÉl v É v RÉ RÉ ]R o}v ]v }uÉ ÉP]}v X Av ÉoÉ o}v uÉ ] o]lÉ É r uity risk premiums and the spread between dividend v .˘É r]v}uÉ ˙]Éo ~ oo˙ ]v E }É o} ]v]É R }l É oo }u Éo˙ É'É ]v r vestment than bonds.

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

S}lu]v~u}'n Dividend yield vs. bond yield

B}vÉv}voÉvÉ˙É

-2%

-4%

2005

2007

2009

2011 S&P 500

2013

2015

Stoxx Europe 600

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

S}l }vv } o}vP ]v }}o]} H]PRÉ }oo]˙ v o}`É É v Rv ]v RÉ o three years – there is certainly nothing wrong with o}}l]vP RÉ } RÉ(É`]R R] É˘É }vXB ] `}o É.v]Éo˙ É ]v}]É } É oÉ }v É ulÉ v}` }oÉo˙ }v RÉ P}v }( o}L˙ ]vG r }v v RÉvÉ É ˙É }vÉ}] ˙ Évo vl X TRÉÉ `}o É vo }]o]˙ }( }lr ulÉ }É }v}(u}É Rv A9}vo˙]v RÉÉ v of a recession. Although signs of a recession occurring ]v RÉ vÉ˘ RÉÉ ˙É É P oo˙ u}vvP W }vÉ of the signs being the US yield curve, which recently É }uu}}v P]v~v R uÉ ] v oÉ É}É } ] (}u }}v W RÉÉ ] o]'oÉ PPÉ vP that it will happen within the next twelve months.

2017

2019

2021

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

`}`v D PP]Évl]vP B }vÉ C

Suoo~}lR]]]P

Be it Apple in the USA or Nestlé in Switzerland, it’s the big names that mainly stand in the foreground on equity markets. But smaller companies don’t have to hide in the background as wallflowers. Quite the contrary, in fact, historically they have mostly delivered significantly better riskadjusted returns than their larger-cap counterparts. Active investment in smaller stocks looks destined to continue to pay off and generate alpha in the future.

Suoo u]PR˙ B ]P vuÉ PÉ vÉ oo˙ É }u]vÉ }v ]vÉ } [ }l lists and in the financial news because it’s companies like Apple in the USA and Nestlé in Switzerland that É u]vÉ RÉ ]É ]}v }( RÉ É rlv}`v É ]˙ u lÉ ]v]É X TRÉ US r É É Rv}o}P˙ É RÉ u}R briefly reached a stock market value of USD 3 trillion at the start of this year. At last look, Apple alone acr counted for around 7% of the market capitalization }( RÉ USA[ oÉ rR] S P æ ]vÉ˘ X B ] ˙ (} investors to think outside the box and not to choose RÉ ] ]l }oÉ o˙ (}u RÉ uÉ }o }( o PÉ r }u v]É XB É É]v RÉ É }v ]É v É É ]oo˙ the third tier, there are a vast number of interesting companies that have only a fraction of the weight of large caps, but which often tip the scales with greatr É ]vv} ]}v v P}`R X Suoo r É vÉ ]É ]v particular, which (depending on the definition) are companies with a market capitalization of USD 5 bilr lion or less, are in many cases (world) market leadr ers in a wide array of different industries and niches }É ]vP vÉ vuÉ R É oÉ `É oo rlv}`v } the public.

C}vv}}(}uvYn Small beats big in all markets Annualized performance since 2002

10%

0 Eurozone (MSCI EMU Small vs. Switzerland (SPI Small vs. Large) Large) Small Caps

United Kingdom (FTSE 250 vs. 100) Large Caps

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUJPM}PvUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

US (S&P Small Cap 600 vs. 500)

Small caps, at any rate, performed impressively over the last two to three decades, outpacing large caps in almost every region of the world. They even outr performed large caps in all of the arguably most imr portant single markets for Western investors (USA, E }}vÉ U S`]É ov U UK ]vP R É ]} X WR]oÉ their annualized outperformance in the particularly competitive US market amounted to a respectable X É É vPÉ }]v U ]v E }É uoo É large caps even more significantly by an annualized X É É vPÉ }]v ]v S`]É ov v ˙ É v X É É vPÉ }]v ]v RÉ E }}vÉ X OÉ o}vP ]uÉ horizon of a decade or more, such inconspicuous anr nual return differentials can tally up to considerable added value for investors. M} Rv i It is a myth, however, that this superior performance by small caps only comes in exchange for higher risk. E É v ]vP É ]}v U RÉ }PRÉ ]uÉ ]uP]v r oÉ (} É ]˙ u lÉ U uoo É v} oÉ v r derperformers, contrary to what one might presume. The evidence over the last 30 years is mixed on this count – small caps have sometimes performed betr ter and sometimes worse than large caps during rer É ]}v R É X TRÉ o}vP rÉ u É (} uoo (excluding those in the USA) is actually well below 1, which means that smaller stocks are less sensitive to movements in the broad market than large caps are. A look at the volatility of small caps over the last 20 years reveals that it is only marginally higher than o PÉ r }o ]o]˙ ]v u} u lÉ v É v r stantially lower in Switzerland. Higher returns amid ]u]o } o}`É }o ]o]˙ uÉ v É ]lr i É returns (Sharpe ratios) – far superior in some cases – for small caps. So, it makes wise sense also from a ]l É É ]É } oÉ v uooÉ r }l ]v} diversified portfolio.

S o ]o`]v B `R É˘o]v RÉ É˘É É v }v uoo M There, in fact, are an array of structural reasons that RÉ o } É˘o]v uoo [ oR X F} ]v vÉ U uoo r cap companies’ revenue and earnings generally grow faster than the sales and profits of large caps, in part because small caps are often younger enterprises that are still in an early growth stage. Large estabr lished companies, in contrast, often operate in marr kets that are almost saturated. Anyway, the growth ]((É É v]o É `É É v uoo r v o PÉ r }u v]É ]v ]v ]o]É v ]}v ]vÉ ı ı u}v } percentage points. Moreover, small enterprises are }(É v ]É lÉ }É PÉ X A }v ı æA9 }( oo M&A deals worldwide each year involve the purchase }( uoo r }u v˙ ~`]R v É vÉ ]É oÉ }( less than USD 5 billion), and the buyer usually pays a sizeable takeover premium, which has stood at an average of around 30% lately. This contributes sigr nificantly to smaller stocks’ outperformance over the long run. Last but not least, the circle of shareholdr ers in small caps often includes insiders and staker holders that have a lot of skin in the game and thus have a greater (financial) interest in receiving high, sustainable returns on investment.

Yn Small caps well in the lead over the longer term Performance since 2002 600

500

400

300

200

100

2002

2006

2010 MSCI EMU Small

2014

MSCI EMU Large

FTSE 250

2018

2022

FTSE 100

700

600

500

400

300

A oR o} ]v R ( B R [ v} oo X P }( RÉ oR }( uoo ] o} É˘o]vÉ ˙ RÉ ( R uoo U oÉ `É oo rlv}`v }u v]É É oo˙ É o˙ É v }v } É vÉ o˙ absent from the radar screens of investors and anar o˙ XWRÉ É oPÉ ]v RÉUSA v E }ÉÉ R receive research coverage from an average of 17 bror kerage houses, there are only three or four company vo˙] v ]vÉ uÉ v É }uuÉ v }v o]R r É É uoo X A }v É }( oo uoo r }u v]É ]v RÉ USA v E }É É v} }É É even by a single analyst. This research gap is preciser o˙ `R }É v oÉ É `˙ (} oR X WR}É É uÉ and energy into analyzing smaller companies that are oo˙ v} ` RÉ ˙ v˙}vÉ v P]v v ]v(} r u}v vPÉ }É RÉ u }( ]vÉ } v v }É voo˙ }vÉ ] ]v} É (}uvÉ vPÉ X E É v ]v RÉ ]P]o] }v PÉ R É ˙ É˘É v]É networking and rapid data transmission, in which we }]v ]o˙ É o `]R oPÉ o˙ É8]É v u lÉ U R] S]v r É8]É v˙ _ ]v RÉ uoo É } }vvÉ } É˘] } R] ˙X TRÉ É [ o]'oÉ PPÉ vP R R] `}v [ }vvÉ } É } } v]É ]v RÉ ( É X I therefore will likely remain worthwhile in the future } É o˙ }v É uvPÉ uÉ v ]v RÉ uoo r v] r É ]vÉ }( ]uo˙ ˙]vP v E TFX

200

100

2002

2006

2010 S&P Small Cap 600

2014 S&P 500

SPI Small

2018

2022

SPI Large

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUJPM}PvUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

N}in Suooo}Éo]É'ÉÉ ]lriÉvÉ Annualized Sharpe ratio since 2002 1.0

0.83

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.37

0.42

0.38

0.37

0.42

0.2 0.10

0.07 0

MSCI EMU Small

MSCI EMU Large

SPI Small

S&P Small Cap 600

SPI Large

FTSE 250

FTSE 100

S&P 500

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUJPM}PvUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

UUWu]vn SuooÉ}uv]É'ÉÉ lÉ}ÉPÉ Global M&A activity (number of deals) 2,500

50%

2,000

40%

1,500

30%

1,000

20%

500

10%

All transactions

Target < 5bn USD

98 99 19

0 95

Average Premium (rhs)

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUJPM}PvUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

o˙ B }vRn Small caps are analyzed less Research coverage of small caps (number of brokerages) in the USA and Europe Europe

red (>10)

Europe

Thinly Covered (6-10) (>10) Highly Covered

ly Covered (1-5)

Highly Covered Thinly Covered (6-10) (>10)

NotVery Covered Thinly Covered (1-5)

Thinly Covered (6-10) (>10) Highly Covered

Thinly Covered (1-5) Not Very Covered

NotVery Covered Thinly Covered (1-5)

Thinly Covered (6-10) Not Covered

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUJPM}PvUK]ÉPvÉP]vl

H]}]o]P]}vn Solid performance even in the Japanese scenario Stocks and interest rates in Japan since 1998 300

3.0%

250

2.5%

200

2.0%

150

1.5%

100

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-50

-0.5% 1998

2002 TOPIX 100

2006 TOPIX Mid 400

r˙ÉP}ÉvuÉv˙]Éo~R

S}ÉPBo}}uÉPUJPM}PvUK]É 16

2010

2014

Topix Small

2018

Nominal House Price Index (OECD)

vl B }(Jv}o]˙~R É

Partner Privatbank

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

2022

There’s a compelling case to be made for small caps ~v oÉ v˙ }( PuÉ v PPÉ É }( v É PÉ }É oPÉ É v ]v RÉ (É }( RooÉ vP]vP PÉ }}o] r o É o}uÉ v XSuoo r }u v]É U(} É˘uoÉ U É v }u É o˙ oPÉ RÉ }( RÉ ] É vÉ ]v } vÉ RÉ ] É É É R}uÉ }v]É v R É }uÉ `R oÉ É˘}É } }É }v] É vÉ v r ]É v R}l } Po} o É X E ˘É }v }v.u the rule. And smaller companies are at least unlikely to necessarily be at a disadvantage in the current u }É }v}u] o]uÉ u lÉ ˙ ]o]vP ]vG}v v }É voo˙ o}`É ( É P}`R X S]vÉ uoo (especially those in the manufacturing and consumr É P}} É } É }LÉ v u lÉ oÉ É ]v RÉ ] É ]. v]RÉ U RÉ ˙ oo˙ `]É o É ]v É PÉ É of pricing power. So, most of them should be able to pass higher prices onto their customers and to É(É v RÉ ] }. uP]v X WR}É É É˘É } É weaker economic growth going forward can likewise lÉ }v É ]É ` }v RÉ uoo É PuÉ v X A o}}l J v v RÉ É }o }v RÉ É }É RÉ o ˙É W É ]} R É ˙ v É }v o˙ vÉ u] P}`R v vuÉ }( ]+É É v ]É W ]v ]É }v.É vÉ ]v v˙ É P J vÉ É uoo } É r formed the large caps in the Topix 100 index by a wide margin over that period. O ˘ ] }v uoo Whoever would like to capitalize on the “alpha opr } v]˙ _ R uoo }((É R }lÉ É R] } RÉ É o}É } RÉ u lÉ v u ]vÉ ]É o˙X K] r ser Partner Privatbank has built up extensive experr ]É}v RÉS`] uoo v u] r u lÉ ]v É v ˙É X O S`] S}l B lÉ ]vÉ ]v ]É ](]É } (}o]}}( }u v]É U`]R (} }v o]˙ }l with attractive growth prospects. It concentrates on companies that have a competitive edge, a leadr ing position in the market and an attractive market structure. Since the inception of the strategy at the }( U `É RÉ É vÉ É v }( A= ı X A9 with our approach and have handily beaten the É vRu l S`] PÉ (}uvÉ IvÉ˘ ~A= X A9 X O S`] S}l B lÉ R É o]É É v vv o]É É r v }( A= æ X A9 X X }É R É ]} `R]oÉ RÉ }É r oo u lÉ R É vÉ A= ı X ıA9 X X U v RÉ É˘É return was achieved with comparable risk (volatility: 11.7% for the strategy vs. 11.4% for the benchmark). We are confident that our carefully assembled basr ket of Swiss stocks will continue to deliver alpha for our clients in the years ahead.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

TRÉBlPPÉ oA Pv

P(}uv

}(

30 April 2022

Asset class

YTD

M}vR

-0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

CHF

-0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

UR E

0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

USD

00 0

F]˘Iv}u Sovereign bonds Corporate bonds

-7.0% -7.0% -7.0%

H]PRr˙]Éo }v uÉE P]vPrulÉ}v

0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

-8.1% -8.1% -8.1%

0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

2.5%

r XæA9

rXıA9

rX9A

r XæA9

r X A9

2.3%

X A9

rX 9A

1.1%

13.7%

r æX A9

æX A9

rX9A

ræXæA9

4.4%

æXA9

rX9A

31.4%

00 0

r XıA9 -5.2% -5.2% -5.2%

0.3%

5.8% 5.8% 5.8% -13.9% -13.9% -13.9%

uÉE P]vPulÉ

0.3%

r X A9

-10.9% -10.9% -10.9%

USA

rX9A

0.1%

-12.8% -12.8% -12.8%

Switzerland }E

rX9A

r XæA9

rX9A

-11.2% -11.2% -11.2%

Global

rX9A

0.0%

rXıA9

-15.4% -15.4% -15.4%

IvvÉro]vlÉ}v Convertible bonds E ]]

0.0%

ræX9A

-5.9% -5.9% -5.9%

Iv(o]}vro]vlÉ}v

3 Years

rX9A

-12.8% -12.8% -12.8%

Microfinance

1 Year

A o v]

X9A 30.1%

rXıA9

rX9A

X9A

1.0%

æXA9

14.3%

rıX9A

rX9A

45.4%

ræX9A

-12.6% -12.6% -12.6%

r X9A 10.7%

rX9A

r X A9

00 0

Commodities

4.1%

30.6% 30.6% 30.6%

Gold Real estate Switzerland Hedge funds

3.7% 3.7% 3.7% -5.2% -5.2% -5.2% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0%

C v]

00 0

EUR lUSD

-7.3% -7.3% -7.3%

UR E lCHF

-1.1% -1.1% -1.1%

GBPlUSD

-7.1% -7.1% -7.1%

43.3%

X9A

7.2%

X9A

rX9A

0.3%

24.0%

rX9A

14.1%

rX9A

rX9A 0.5% r X A9

rX9A

r X A9

r XæA9

rX9A

rıX9A

rXæA9

Ov}APv M˙PR E OR}}˙D ]vS`]ov R E OÉR}}˙D ulRÉ˙É `R]R}v˙[}o}vR}vuÉoo}(RÉ]}o}P] oÉ}ÉRRÉR E ]oÉ}(ÉPÉvÉvP]v˙ÉXF}uR˙}v`U}v˙o]É RÉ}( É RÉ˙ÉRÉ˘ÉÉ vÉ}((ÉPÉvÉ}vXR E OÉR}}˙D ]vS`]Éov(oo}v May 13 this year.

M˙PT}oovo] WR}ÉÉPÉÉo˙Év}PRv]É`oÉÉ }(vÉ]vu]rM˙U`RÉvRÉ(oou}}v `]oo]ÉG˙uÉPÉ]Éo(]vRÉR E [R}`]v}oovÉo]ÉXTR]uÉUR}`ÉU É ]uÉ ]]]o]˙(}}ÉE v`]oo}vo˙É]vRÉ`Éo}É}]oÉ}RÉov A }X JvPP}v D B}Fo E OVID voÉ C U(oÉ]vP}v}u] É ]˙vPÉ}}o]o]o˙WCR]vRP}'ÉvoÉv˙}( ÉoÉo˙X}o}(o A v}É]Dv`URÉP}v D B}FÉoU`R]R]ÉoÉÉR˙É}v RÉ.LR˙}(RÉ.LRu}vR}(RÉCR]vÉÉovoÉvXDv`]}vÉ}(RÉRÉÉu}]u} vvvo(Éo]vCR]vo}vP]ÉRÉCR]vÉÉNÉ`YÉvRÉAuvM}}vFÉoX

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

Notes

Y}]vPv}

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022

This document constitutes neither a financial analysis nor an advertisement. It is intended solely for informational purposes. None of the information contained RÉ]v É }v]É }o]]]}v }}uuÉ É v]}v˙ K]ÉPvÉP]vl AG to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to take any other actions regarding any financial instruments. Furthermore, the information contained herein does not constitute investment advice. Any references in this document to past performance É v} PvÉÉ }( }]]É (É (}uvÉ É X K]É PvÉ P]vl AG assumes no liability for the completeness, correctness or currentness of the information contained herein or for any losses or damages arising from any actions taken on the basis of the information in this document. All contents of this document are protected by intellectual property law, particularly by copyright law. The reprinting or reproduction of all or any parts of this document in any way or form for public or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited unless prior written }vÉvRvÉ ˘o]]o˙ É PvÉ˙K]ÉPvÉP]vlGA X

Monthly Market Monitor - May 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Po]R P

K]ÉPvÉP]vlAG Herrengasse 23, Postfach 725 FLrııVUL]É RÉvÉ]v HRrNXFLr X X r TPA= UFPA= EP vll]É vÉX}u

E ]}]oTuP Oliver Hackel, Senior Investment Strategist R}uvP(vPÉUHÉP]ÉB vl]vPIvÉ uÉv Solutions C}vÉo]K}(UMlÉ]vPSÉ ]o] U]LABAG D ]PvP]vP

]LABAGUVUL]É RÉvÉ]v

l]vXvl

DE210312