Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG - Monthly Market Monitor December 2021

Monthly Market Monitor

December 2021

Table of contents In a Nutshell

Macro Radar

Our view on the markets

Taking the pulse of economic activity

04

Satellite View

06

Geopolitical heat map

07

Asset Allocation Notes from the Investment Committee

Theme in Focus

08

Outlook for 2022

10

Ask the experts Questions stirring our clients (and the financial markets)

12

The Back Page Asset classes & agenda

13 Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021

3

In a Nutshell

Our view on the markets

After Delta, now Omicron For the second year in a row, the pre-Christmas season is being overshadowed by an acute wave of COVID-19 contagion. In the midst of this fourth wave, the Delta variant has rendered a renewed tightening of containment measures ranging from contact restrictions to even compulsory vaccination (in some places) necessary, particularly in those countries of central and eastern Europe with low vaccination rates. The new Omicron variant is causing additional uncertainties that will take some time to unravel in the weeks ahead. But there are also some medical rays of hope for 2022.

Year-end rally canceled?

Everything was going “according to plan” for equity investors until shortly before Thanksgiving – the anticipated year-end rally was in full swing. But the new Omicron variant spoiled the festive mood, causing a huge spike in volatility and dragging down stock prices.

Higher volatility could become a fixture on equity markets in 2022. In any case, a number of divergences and narrow market breadth are clear warning signs at the moment. We explain how an investor should position him or herself for the new year in the Asset Allocation section of this publication.

Chart of the Month Divergent fever curves | Vaccination helps!

Number of deaths per million inhabitants (7-day rolling average)

Sources: Our World in Data, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 4

Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Inflation is near its zenith Inflation climbed to 4.9% in the Eurozone and to 5.2% in Germany in November. In the USA, meanwhile, a “6” was in front of the decimal point at last look. The European Central Bank recently saw itself compelled to issue reassuring statements. We, in fact, by now probably are near inflation’s zenith. The US Federal Reserve nonetheless may soon announce an acceleration of tapering.

Outlook for 2022 Advent season is always also a time for venturing a look ahead to the new year. The predictions that come from peering into the crystal ball often get overtaken by reality faster than one likes, particularly in the midst of a worldwide pandemic. Nevertheless, at the end of the year it’s helpful for an investor to have a rough roadmap in hand for the quarters ahead. We outline the key macroeconomic themes for 2022 and forecast an outlook for asset classes.

Ask the experts What did the world climate conference in Glasgow accomplish? What do the upheavals in Chinese politics mean? Should I buy gold even though it doesn’t pay interest? These and other questions are on the minds of our clients (and the financial markets). You’ll find our answers to them in our quarterly Q&A.

We actually had hoped that we wouldn’t have to present another COVID-19 graph this year, but the “Chart of the Month” at least shows that the current waves underway are causing fewer hospitalizations (and deaths) worldwide compared to last spring. If COVID-19 had any positive aspect this year, then it’s perhaps that we soon will have learned the entire Greek alphabet. After the Mu variant discovered last January, the WHO then skipped the letters Nu (sounds too much like new) and Xi (a common last name). That’s why we are now dealing with Omicron. Much is still unknown about this new variant. It appears to be more transmissible, but possibly causes fewer health complications. The question of whether the current vaccines provide adequate protection is bound to be investigated in the days ahead.

The fact that Pfizer and Moderna may likely be able to manufacture modified vaccines 10 to 12 weeks from now inspires optimism.

Discover our advent calendar with insights into our company and services and meet our experts:

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021

5

Macro Radar

Taking the pulse of economic activity

Shortly before the end of the year, COVID-19 has dealt another setback to sentiment and economic activity. However, the US Federal Reserve apparently does not want to allow itself to get deterred by this. Meanwhile, there are also medical rays of hope for 2022.

Fourth wave forces a retightening of containment measures While the Omicron variant is mostly stoking a lot of uncertainty at the moment, it’s the Delta variant that’s currently causing serious concerns particularly in central and eastern Europe because what never should have happened is actually unfolding right now: the fourth wave is threatening to overstrain healthcare systems and necessitates renewed containment measures ranging from contact restrictions and (partial) lockdowns to even mandatory vaccination. Countries like France, Spain and Italy with higher vaccination rates are also registering a resurgence in case counts, but they are the ones more likely to get through the latest COVID-19 wave with much less harm to public health and economic activity. Although the latest developments will probably cause fourth-quarter economic growth in the Eurozone to come in lower than originally expected, our forecast of a substantial pickup in economic activity from Q2 2022 onward remains intact. The medical front also holds out hope for next year: new drugs from Merck and Pfizer (in pill form) that drastically reduce the incidence of severe COVID-19 look set to soon become widely available and could prove to be a real game changer in the battle against the pandemic.

Second term of office for Jay Powell US President Joe Biden nominated Jerome Powell for a second term as Federal Reserve chairman in late November, eliminating at least one potential element

Headed back upward again now | Real interest rates have likely hit bottom US real interest rate (yield on 10-year US Treasury notes minus inflation)

of uncertainty regarding future US monetary policy.

Financial market participants know more or less what they are getting with Jay Powell: a centrist who, if in doubt, probably prefers to err on the side of a more restrictive monetary policy rather than run the risk of allowing lastingly elevated inflation to take root. Now that the Fed chairmanship succession question has been decided, the monetary policy turnaround that has already been initiated looks set to tend to gain momentum. Several Fed officials in recent weeks have spoken out in favor of speeding up tapering. Chairman Powell recently took the same line and even said that it was now finally time to retire the word “transitory” when describing inflation. A faster phaseout of securities purchases may be communicated by as early as the pre-Christmas FOMC meeting on December 15.

But even if inflation ultimately doesn’t turn out to be as transitory as originally hoped, a lot suggests that it is already close to its zenith in the USA (and Europe).

Consensus estimates 2020

2021

2022

Switzerland

-3.2

3.4

2.9

Eurozone

-6.8

5.1

4.2 5.0

GDP growth (in %)

UK

-9.9

7.0

USA

-3.5

5.5

3.9

2.3

8.0

5.3

-0.7

0.5

0.6

0.3

2.5

2.3 3.6

China Inflation (in %) Switzerland Eurozone UK

0.9

2.4

USA

1.3

4.5

3.7

China

2.5

1.0

2.2

Kaiser Partner Privatbank interest rates view Last

3M

12M

Key interest rates (in %) Switzerland

-0.75

→

→

Eurozone

-0.50

→

→

UK

0.10

↗

↗

USA

0.25

→

↗

China

2.95

↘

↘

10-year yields (in %)

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 6

Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Switzerland

-0.23

→

↗

Eurozone

-0.34

→

↗

UK

0.81

→

↗

USA

1.47

→

↗

China

2.87

→

→

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Satellite View Geopolitical heat map

Iran (and the atomic bomb) Iran reentered diplomatic talks concerning the country’s nuclear program in late November. Time is pressing, however, because the Iranians may soon acquire the capability to build nuclear weapons. The USA and Israel have not brandished a credible military threat lately to directly deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but instead have been conducting a “covert war” of sabotage and cyberattacks against Iran outside the public eye. First and foremost, though, they are banking on diplomacy, but there is an ever-increasing risk of a miscalculation. A short-term crisis resulting in an acceptable new nuclear deal appears practically inevitable. If such a deal does not materialize, Iran will soon develop a nuclear first strike capability, which would compel a military response by the USA and Israel. If a military altercation ensues, Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which would not only upend the global petroleum market, but would also spark a global recession. Even smaller-scale interventions such as a “Tanker War 2.0” or renewed drone attacks on oil infrastructure could cause the price of petroleum to soar.

China’s appetite for reforms What has top priority for the Communist Party on the road to “common prosperity”: ideology or pragmatism? If the former outweighs the latter, China’s autocratic government risks getting ensnarled in its populist campaign to cap housing costs and risks precipitating a real estate crash. But even the lesser evil – an overly sharp slowdown in economic activity – could pose a risk for Xi Jinping because in order for him to cement his hold on power as president for life, he needs to secure key personnel promotions to the party’s inner circle at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022. An economy in free fall would hardly be helpful to that end. So, once again, pragmatism appears destined to outweigh ideology (as is the standard political practice in China). This means that reform efforts in the months ahead are likely to be calibrated in a way to safeguard economic stability.

Geopolitical developments do not stop at the gates of the financial markets.

On the contrary, they have become an increasingly important influencing variable in recent years.

Our Satellite View takes a look at the major hotspots at the moment.

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021

7

Asset Allocation

Notes from the Investment Committee

The coronavirus in recent weeks has proven once again that it is still capable of springing surprises.

But even if the Omicron variant causes volatility to spike in the near term, it is unlikely to nullify the very profitable year thus far on the equity markets.

Asset Allocation Monitor -

+

-

Cash

Equities

Fixed Income

Global

Sovereign bonds

Switzerland

Corporate bonds

Europe

Microfinance

UK

Inflation-linked bonds

USA

High-yield bonds

Emerging markets

Emerging-market bonds

Alternative Assets

Insurance-linked bonds

Gold

Convertible bonds

Real estate

Duration

Hedge funds

Currencies

Structured products

US dollar

Private equity

+

Swiss franc Euro British pound

Equities: If it feels too good…

Scorecard + • …then a correction is surely around the corner. Everything was going “according to plan” for equity inves- Macro 11/2021 tors until shortly before Thanksgiving – the anticipat- Monetary/fiscal policy Corporate earnings ed year-end rally was in full swing. But then the new Omicron variant spoiled the festive mood, causing Valuation a huge spike in volatility (the VIX index shot up 54%, Trend registering its fourth biggest single-day jump since Investor sentiment its inception) and triggering a correction that has there will likely be recurring rotations in and out of pulled the S&P 500 down by less than 5% thus far sectors and individual stocks again in 2022. Taking big but has knocked the EuroStoxx 50 back by around bets on sectors or investment styles therefore contin9%. Now that those indices are already back in overues to be inappropriate. The focus instead should be sold territory, a technical retracement at the least is on keeping portfolios as balanced as possible. Cycliprobably already under way. If the market remains cal value stocks sensitive to changes in interest rates driven by momentum as it has been throughout the and economic activity belong in a balanced portfolio, entire year, there’s even a lot suggesting that Deas do high-quality growth stocks. Such a mix of value cember will be an up month. To cite a statistic: since and growth stocks should perform well, even if infla1980, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than tion rates stay elevated. Meanwhile, our stance on 20% year-to-date at the end of November, it posted regions remains largely neutral. But we are setting a positive performance in December eight times out one regional accent: we remain very bullish on UK of ten. But even if this year ends on a conciliatory stocks. After years of underperforming, the UK marnote, the blatant weaknesses on the equity market ket has recently stabilized relative to other regions. should not go unspoken because a long-observed However, its valuation discount is glaringly large, so trend has recently resurfaced: the (US) market is bewe see a lot of upside potential for the UK market. ing sustained by only a handful of stocks. It remains to be seen whether this divergence resolves to the Fixed income: High-yield segment under pressure upside or to the downside in 2022. It tends to fore• Growth concerns have been the dominant theme shadow higher volatility in any case. on government bond markets in recent weeks, and • The macroeconomic and (geo)political climate also the Omicron variant has tended to worsen those looks set to remain extremely dynamic next year, so concerns in recent days. Consequently, yields on 108

Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

modities – in any case, the timing of the release of year US Treasurys and German Bunds have pulled strategic oil reserves in the USA in late November back sharply by 25 to 30 basis points from their yearwas somewhat untimely in hindsight. to-date highs. Although those bonds have thus recouped up to half of their previous price drawdowns for the year, this makes them now an even more Currencies: Strong US dollar unattractive investment looking ahead to 2022. We • EUR/USD: The month of November on the currency markets was marked by pronounced US dollar strength continue to recommend underweighting them.

– only the Japanese yen posted a somewhat stronger • Somewhat tougher times may also soon dawn for performance. Whereas the yen’s gains were caused high-yield bonds. This asset class delivered respectby a reflexive flight to safety sparked by the discovery able returns again this year. Credit spreads contractof the Omicron variant, the greenback continues to be ed to the pre-pandemic level (in Europe) or to even driven by interest-rate speculation and price momenbelow it (in the USA), and companies seized the optum. As long as those variables continue to dominate, portunity to refinance again on the cheap. A record the EUR/USD exchange-rate trend remains pointed volume of junk bonds was thus issued on the US highdownward. However, it could start to bottom out if yield market. However, a gradual phaseout of quantithe Eurozone’s economic growth prospects brighten tative easing by the US Federal Reserve, an upward next year relative the outlook in the USA. drift in government bond yields, (somewhat) slower economic growth, a recent mild retightening of bank • GBP/USD: On December 16, market participants will turn their attention to the Bank of England for a final lending conditions and a potential increase in default time this year. Will the BoE deliver the interest-rate rates dim the outlook for high-yield bonds a bit. All hike that had actually been expected in November? in all, these factors portend widening spreads and a Some indications suggest that it will because there’s weaker price performance going forward. We may hardly anything more important to a central bank have already gotten a foretaste of that in November, than maintaining its credibility, and verbal balancing when high-yield indices dipped by around 1% and acts aren’t helpful to that end. If the BoE shifts to a registered their biggest monthly declines of the year. more restrictive monetary policy, the British pound should tend to stay strong and could continue to hold Alternative assets: Sensitive oil price up fairly well against the US dollar.

• Commodities rank among the best-performing asset classes this year, posting high double-digit percent • EUR/CHF: 1.06, 1.05, 1.04, … – the EUR/CHF cross has recently been plumbing new year-to-date lows gains year-to-date. They have thus proven their abilon almost a weekly basis. The only time the franc ity to provide added value in times of elevated inflawas even stronger against the euro was during the tion. However, recent weeks have shined a light on months right after the Swiss National Bank scrapped the flipside of the coin: commodity prices can fluctuthe exchange-rate floor in 2015. The SNB, as we ate wildly, as has recently been observable with the expected, has put up much less resistance to CHF price of oil, which has plunged by around 20% in the appreciation in recent weeks than it did in previous span of just one month, here too against the backepisodes. After losing a good 5% of its value over a drop of mounting concerns about economic growth span of ten weeks, the euro looks poised to stage an and uncertainty about future demand for oil due to interim rally. For the longer term, there is no case the new virus variant. Last but not least, this latest supporting a further appreciation of the Swiss franc. episode also shows that one can easily mistime com-

On the financial markets, bond traders are commonly considered a somewhat smarter species than stock traders because upheavals in the macroeconomy often get reflected first in changes in market interest rates and bond yields (and thus indirectly also in bond prices). The new underlying conditions become relevant for companies and their earnings and ultimately for shareholders with a time lag and accordingly get reflected late(r) in stock prices. The synchronicity between US stocks and US high-yield bonds has conspicuously gotten out of whack in recent weeks. This could be another early warning sign of an upcoming (major) stock-market correction and confirms the technical weaknesses described in the Equities section of this article. Against this backdrop, 2022 looks destined to be a suspenseful and very likely a more volatile year for stocks.

Chart in the Spotlight Do bonds scent a coming correction? | Stocks and bonds have been diverging lately US equity ETF vs. US high-yield bond ETF

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021

9

Theme in Focus Outlook for 2022

Advent season is always also a time for venturing a look ahead to the new year. The predictions that come from peering into the crystal ball often get overtaken by reality faster than one likes, particularly in the midst of a worldwide pandemic. Nevertheless, at the end of the year it’s helpful for an investor

Already near full employment | The enigma of the US labor market Number of unemployed and unfilled jobs in the USA (in millions)

to have a rough roadmap in hand for the quarters ahead. The charts below highlight some of the key macroeconomic themes for 2022 and serve as appetizers for the main course: our outlook for 2022, which you’ll find on our investment blog.

USA: The pandemic has turned many things topsyturvy, including the US labor market. After the initial coronavirus shock and the accompanying waves of layoffs, the subsequent COVID recovery boom has left businesses with more unfilled job positions than ever at the moment. But very generous temporary transfer payments, early retirements, health concerns, etc. have shrunk the pool of jobseekers. Does the US employment market threaten to overheat soon? The answer to this question has relevance mainly for the US Federal Reserve because employment is the second key target objective for its monetary policy alongside inflation.

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Clogged supply chains… | …continue to act as a near-term brake on growth Ifo index readings

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 10

Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

Eurozone: The national economies of Europe rebounded in spring from the crash in economic activity caused by the pandemic – some of them with spectacular growth rates – but their economic output has not yet returned to the pre-pandemic level.

One of the biggest impediments to growth alongside COVID-19 waves two through four has been the ongoing supply bottlenecks for key products (including semiconductor chips) and global freight traffic congestion, which have forced production interruptions particularly in the (German) automotive industry.

These brakes on economic activity look set to ease up gradually from the second quarter of 2022 onward. The triad of a comeback in manufacturing activity, a recovery of the service sector and fiscal stimulus should cause growth rates in the Eurozone to stay above average again next year.

Facing major challenges | Will Xi Jinping be able to reconcile stability and reforms?

Caixin purchasing managers’ index readings

China: After having gotten through the first COVID-19 wave comparatively quickly last year, China was no longer the habitual economic growth engine in 2021.

Quite the contrary in fact, economic growth momentum in the Middle Kingdom continually decelerated over the course of the year, largely due to the government’s orchestration of a reframing of China’s economy (and society) under the slogan “common prosperity for all.” The stricter regulation of internet companies and the real estate sector is not a passing fancy – it will continue to be more of a risk than a boon to growth in 2022. However, if economic activity slows too much, pragmatism will likely trump reforming zeal (as it has so often in the past), particularly in view of the upcoming 20th national Communist Party Congress in autumn.

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Inflation expectations… | …are still well anchored thus far Inflation expectations (5y5y inflation swap)

Inflation: “Inflation” was the macro word of the year in 2021. The question of whether the elevated inflation rates are transitory (a notion the US Federal Reserve long propagated) or will not disappear so quickly after all will be definitively answered next year. From a purely mathematical standpoint, inflation rates in Europa and the USA should drop roughly by half over the course of 2022 due to base effects alone. Beyond that point, however, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future inflation path. On the heels of a rollercoaster ride from 2020 through 2022, some evidence suggests that inflation will level off at a “new normal” around half a percentage point above the pre-pandemic level.

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

The markets expect policy rates to rise | But no speedy farewell to negative interest rates in Europe Interest-rate expectations (forward rates)

Monetary policy: The high inflation dynamics were also reflected this year in monetary policy – some central banks tightened the reins much faster than expected. Norway and New Zealand, for example, have already started to raise interest rates. The US Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has initiated tapering and will reduce its bond purchases to zero by mid2022. Afterwards, an initial rate hike may come up for discussion in the USA as well. For the central bankers in Frankfurt, in contrast, a securities-buying program looks set to remain an actively used monetary policy tool for quite some time to come. So as things currently stand, policy rate hikes by the European Central Bank are unlikely to be undertaken (yet) over the next two years (so we are also unlikely to see any rate hikes by the Swiss National Bank during that period).

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021

11

Ask the experts

Questions stirring our clients (and the financial markets)

We are always available to answer our clients’ questions and concerns regarding their portfolios.

Once every quarter, we summarize clients’ most frequently asked questions and our experts’ answers and give you firsthand insights into our asset management and investment advisory operations.

These and more questions can be found on our blog:

12

Client question: The world climate conference (COP26) is over. Are the pledges that were made there just green marketing, or are they serious steps toward limiting global warming?

ternational Energy Agency (IEA), the climate pledges made – provided they are kept – are only enough to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.

• Coal and fossil fuels: For the first time ever in the final declaration of a climate pact, coal and petroKaiser Partner Privatbank: Almost 200 member states leum were explicitly cited as key causes of global took part in the world climate conference in Glasgow warming. Equally noteworthy was the agreement under the principle of unanimity, as always. Under reached to phase out “inefficient” subsidies for fossuch preconditions, it is more than difficult to hamsil fuels and to (largely) exit coal power. mer out compromises on anything beyond the lowest • Methane: Methane has 80 times more warming pocommon denominator. It’s outright impossible for a tential than carbon dioxide, but doesn’t linger nearly solitary climate summit to halt global warming and its as long in the Earth’s atmosphere (12 years on averconsequences. Disappointments such as India’s and age as opposed to 300 to 1,000 years for CO2). So, China’s last-minute dilution of an exit from coal have it has accordingly large leverage in reducing the atto be accepted as natural byproducts of complicated mospheric greenhouse gas concentration in the near climate diplomacy. In the final analysis, the outcome term. More than 100 countries vowed in Glasgow to of COP26 was nonetheless positive and more than just cut their methane emissions by 30% by 2030. green marketing because climate targets not only became more ambitious, the actions to be taken to reach The list of positives can easily be lengthened. For exthem also became more specific. In addition, the ample, outside of the UN framework (where the methmeasures also became more binding, though there is ane pledge came into existence), initiatives were also still plenty of room for improvement on this point. The launched to phase out internal combustion engines by following items rank among the highlights of the two- between 2035 and 2040, to end deforestation by 2030 week Glasgow climate summit, in our view: and to accelerate the advancement of clean, sustain• 1.5 degrees Celsius: The participating countries able, zero-emission technologies. Finally, heretofore reaffirmed their intention to limit the increase in missing rules were defined to facilitate the breakglobal temperatures by 2100 to a maximum of 1.5 through of cross-border trading of emissions credits. degrees Celsius. According to calculations by the InTo say that the COP26 summit was all just “blah, blah, blah,” as Greta Thunberg opined, would be to draw a false, naïve conclusion because in the end, the climate conference didn’t just deal with climate protection, but also with its economic and social implications, which inevitably necessitates compromises. With a couple of demerits, the two-week conference marathon was a successful start to a much longer endurance run in this fledgling and likely already crucial third decade of the 21st century. More and more politicians, policymakers and businesspeople appear conscious of the need for immediate accelerated action and even more strenuous efforts beyond that. This is evident last but not least in two additional points. First, governments next year already intend to further step up their national contributions to achieving the climate targets and want to discuss the progress annually in the future.

And second, every climate summit in the future is to be kicked off by a meeting of heads of government and state (as COP 26 was).

Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

The Back Page Asset classes & agenda

Performance as of 30 November 2021 Asset class

YTD

1 Month

1 Year

3 Years

Cash CHF

-0.1%

-0.7%

-2.0%

EUR

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.3%

USD

0.0%

0.2%

3.4%

Fixed Income Sovereign bonds

1.1%

-1.5%

9.5%

Corporate bonds

-0.8%

-2.0%

20.5%

Microfinance

0.2%

3.3%

9.8%

Inflation-linked bonds

2.6%

7.9%

28.8%

High-yield bonds

-1.1%

4.0%

20.1%

Emerging-market bonds

-1.8%

-1.7%

20.0%

0.5%

5.0%

14.8%

-3.5%

9.1%

61.5%

Global

-1.5%

23.6%

59.0%

Switzerland

-0.2%

18.7%

43.2%

Europe

-3.3%

18.7%

36.0%

UK

-1.9%

17.5%

11.1%

US

-1.0%

26.7%

74.9%

Emerging markets

-4.1%

0.6%

21.9%

Commodities

-7.3%

28.8%

16.0%

Gold

-0.5%

-0.1%

45.4%

0.8%

9.6%

38.3%

-0.9%

6.1%

17.8%

Insurance-linked bonds Convertible bonds Equities

Alternative assets

Real estate Switzerland Hedge funds Currencies EUR/USD

-1.9%

-4.9%

0.2%

EUR/CHF

-1.6%

-3.9%

-7.9%

GBP/USD

-2.8%

-0.2%

4.3%

On our Agenda December 11: International Mountain Day Rising temperatures, melting glaciers, snow scarcity and landslides – mountainous regions are particularly under threat from climate change, which also puts freshwater sources for 50% of the world’s population at risk. This makes the theme of this year’s International Mountain Day – sustainable mountain tourism – all the more important.

December 15 & 16: Fed FOMC meeting & ECB policy meeting The world’s two most important central banks’ year-end meetings and macroeconomic forecasts are on the agenda. The central bankers should use the Christmas break to recharge their batteries because 2022 looks destined to be another challenging year for monetary policy.

December 31: New Year’s Eve The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus kept us very preoccupied during the purported post-pandemic year 2021. Hopefully that will change in 2022 and we won’t have to use the C-word as much in the Monthly Market Monitor. We wish all of our readers a happy and healthy new year!

Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021

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This document constitutes neither a financial analysis nor an advertisement. It is intended solely for informational purposes. None of the information contained herein constitutes a solicitation or recommendation by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to take any other actions regarding any financial instruments. Furthermore, the information contained herein does not constitute investment advice. Any references in this document to past performance are no guarantee of a positive future performance. Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG assumes no liability for the completeness, correctness or currentness of the information contained herein or for any losses or damages arising from any actions taken on the basis of the information in this document. All contents of this document are protected by intellectual property law, particularly by copyright law.

The reprinting or reproduction of all or any parts of this document in any way or form for public or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited unless prior written consent has been explicitly granted by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG.

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Monthly Market Monitor - December 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG

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