Monthly Market Monitor
April 2022
Table of contents Iv NZoo
Macro Radar Tl]vPRo}(}v}u]]˙
Our view on the markets
04
06
Satellite View G}}o]oRu
07
Aoo}}v N}(}uRIvuv}uu]' C
TZu]vF}
10
Will China come to the world’s aid?
12
SG E PS]v]o]˙}v Divestments – side effects and risks
14
The Back Page Asset classes & agenda
16 Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
3
In a Nutshell
O]`}vZul
TZFo}}l }u} ]lo˙v}` SE˘]}o˙ _ ] R US Fo R [v` u}'}X TRu}vvP]PvRRF`]oo]uouv S]P _ ær]r}]v ]vr R]l ] v˘ }o]˙ uvP ]v M˙X TR] ˘}v R v o] ]v v `l ˙ }uuv ˙ vu }( F }( .]oU`R}Roo}v RR]u}vvP vP R ]vG}v u˙ ]o } }( }v}oX M}v ˙}o]˙v }ou}vR lv}`X
likelihood that at least the worst of our four scenarios `}v[ }u} X
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Ml`v}o}}lZ }Z( SP}o]o ul R R} oP_ W R] }l u r ket adage has once again held more than just a grain }( R R] u `oo ] ` }v u} }} o ]v ( (} ~v] oo]vPX Iv R uvuU orR] ]v] R }uoo˙ } R] `}`v ]v R }( R R]v ]v]}v }v F˙ X TR } (} ]˙ ul (} R u]v }( R] ˙ }o˙ ' Rv uv˙ `}o X
W]ooCZ]v }u} Z M China conked out for the most part last year as an vP]v }( }v}u] P}`RX TR] ˙U ]v R ( }( R]PRv u}}v}u] vP}}o]o]lUR world economy could really use a reliable support pilr oX H}`U ] ] }vo `RR CR]v v r sume playing this role because the country faces chalr ovP }(] }`vX D]uv W ] + v ]l To divest or to engage? That is one of the fundamenr o }v]vRou}(]vo]vvPUv R v o]u v P}}o]o R R ] l ]v} R (}P}vX Rv ] R}` R R S]uo _ }o}v W ]uv W ]v r ulv]u U }u `]R] }`v]lX
F} v]}(} Z }vG] ]vUl]v H}` `]oo o}uv ]v Ul]v + }v}u] ]˙ v R .vv]o ulM I ul v } R]vl ]v v]} `Rv ]vP R] }vX W]R}`vvP}uv]U`}v]o
CZ }(Z M}vZ A}vG] `]ZP}vv n Bloomberg commodity (sub-)indices
High commodity prices are just one of them
260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 01/21
03/21
05/21
07/21 Energy
09/21
Industrial Metals
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Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
11/21 Grains
01/22
03/22
TR }vG] `v Ul]v v R ] ] v} i Ruv] ]v P˙U o} R Po}o }v r v ˙}v v}vo v }vvvo } because both countries are major producers of raw u ]o X Ul]v ] lv}`v R Pv˙ }( E } v ] }v }( R `}o [ ]PP ˘} }( `R X I ] v ]v R}` uR P]vU ]( v˙ ooU v } R R] ˙X EuP]vPrul }v r ] U R ]PP }vu }( Ul]v]v P]o r o ˘} U R }v u} o]lo˙ } + R }v v ]v R (}u }( R]PR ] X B R W U }}U ( R]PR } ]v `] vP }( `˙ X Iv ]o u o ]v R} o˙U P}o]v ] ]]vP R u U v v R u]}v } ]v ˙ u˙ + }}v } o Ul]v ] o} R `}o [ oP } }( v}v P U `R]R ] v } uv( u]}v } R] X TR Po}o R] R} P R(} }o P }v (} o}vPX
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
5
M}R
Tl]vPZo}(}v}u]]˙
}u}]lo˙v}` Risks to global economic TZFo}}l growth prospects clearly SE˘]}o˙_RRvS]o˙_WR`}]vPR}v R]uv C J}uP}`oou˙R predominate at the ˙USFoR moment. Nowhere is vo˙lv]ov `]RP}R]v] economic activity more rR]l]vP˙o]vRUSAXTRv``}]vPv}`P] rR]l robust than in the USA, so }v}˘S]P_ær]r}]v]v C uvP]v the Fed is clearly setting Rv˘FoOvMl}uu]' ˘ Rvo]]vv`l its focus on the (overly) M˙XTR]}v high inflation there. The ˙}uuv˙vu}(}RF}8]oU`R}R RR]u}vvPvPR]vG}v Eurozone, in contrast, is oo}v }ou}v particularly exposed to u˙]o}}(}v}oXM}v˙}o]˙v risks to growth, but the Rlv}`X ECB is also increasingly [ M facing pressure WZ]]vG}vv]Z to take action. vA v}`]vG}vu}uvu]v}`R]v]PR
}v.v~G(K]v˘ouu]vMR}]uoo r els the likes of which have only been seen during the great .vv]o]]}R}}(ROVID C rıvu]X TR]uvRLvo˙}`lRU ˙R economic growth prospects for the Eurozone are now dimr u]vP(}R}v `ooX MPo}}o]]vo}l}`v While Omicron is a lesser problem in the West at the mor uvUR]v ] ]}]vP]l}}v}u]]˙ ]vR]v C XoR}PR A P]vX] J]v]vP R coronavirus containment measures should impede ecor v}u]P}`Ro]'o}]o]vRU ( ]]}]vP ˘uo˙]8o}]uouvR]XV]o}v}u] vWSRvRvvSRvPR]R]uvo˙ W `v r ]v}o}l}`vP]vXS]vR]v C ]o]lo˙}l`]R] r r }rCOVID}o]˙(}Ru]vPUR]voP ]u}v}vu}v˙v.ouoX
R(]v}`oo E XGvo]oo]vR}E }v}XæA9˙r}vr˙]vMRU}vP]v(˘ ]vPvo˙[}v ˘ XTR}vvo]S ]_vo˙}uooR}E vvC ovl B }Ro˙]]]vG}v(}}vu}XTRB C E v}`}iR]vG}v`}v[ool}]9A P vo}uu}`Rv}(R(}R}]}v ~QX}8]o B C E ]vFvl( }]vPo˙(]vP u}vvP}Rv }( u}v˙ }o]˙}v}uoX}W˘v]v]o R]l BCE ]vuX D
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SvuvZ]v}E TRo}vPR`]vUl]vP}vURu}]] r ]vP]vv}vuvuv]v}E XIv] r ces gauging the business outlook (Ifo index) and consumer Wv]vPu}uvun W}o}v}u]]˙]v˙o]o}`vv OECD diffusion index (percentage of countries with rising leading economic indicators) 100%
Switzerland
3. 6
2. 8
Eurozone
5.3
3.1
1. 8 2. 5
UK
.7 5
4. 0
1. 8
USA
.5 7
3. 5
2. 3
China
8.1
5.0
5.2
Switzerland
0 .6
1. 3
0.7
Eurozone
2.6
5.6
2.1
UK
2.6
6 .6
3. 0
USA
4.7
6. 2
2.6
China
0.9
2. 2
2. 2
Iv(o]}v~]vA9
aK iser Partner Privatbank interest rates view L ast
3M
12M
Key interest rates (in )%
80%
60%
40%
Switzerland
-0.75
AP
AP
Eurozone
-0.50
AP
AR
UK
0.75
AR
AR
USA
0. 5 0
AR
AR
China
2. 8 5
A\
A\
Switzerland
0 .6 4
AP
AR
Eurozone
0 .6 0
AP
AR
UK
1 .6 7
AP
AR
USA
2.4 0
AP
AR
China
2.78
AP
AP
10 -year yields (in )% 20%
0 1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
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Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
2016
2020
S}PBo}}uPUK]PvP]vl
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
7
Soo]V]` G}}o]oZu
How will the conflict in Ukraine affect economic activity and the financial markets? It makes sense to think in scenarios when addressing this question. The appraised probabilities of our four highlighted scenarios are our best estimates given the current (information) situation, which continues to evolve on almost a daily basis. Eschewing naivety, we see a considerable likelihood that at least the worst-case scenario won’t come to pass.
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Market Impact r
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Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
9
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“Political markets have short legs” – this stock market adage has once again held more than just a grain of truth. The prospects for equity markets for the remainder of this year are probably better than many would suspect.
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Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
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r˙lr˙˙]o]+voG'v}i (Ro}v]v}v}u]P}`RXIvRU (`]}]v}}XS}uul} the price of gold has predominantly tended to rise as o˙]`Rv]v]}}(u}vvP]l}( `oo]vRvv]}vuvX (}R}u]vP]}vXWUR}`UR]vlR]] ~oo}}}}vRu}uv}ulRv r v] C PN}o]u]~(}ZS`](v uvXWRRu}uv}vR]vul • UR E lUSDPIvRu]}(RovP}vG]} ]vv}R}`]RRUSFoR] Ul]vUR}}}o}`XP]v `oo SR]vRX_ TRF}o˙ `]oo `v RUS}oo]vo˙MRXS]vRvUR}v E }uv]o(}}(R}]}v]vRu}vR ]vPov˙ R]o]o}` ooX TR] r R˙]uouvvP}]vPo˙]P}}]vr ]o]}vu˙}vvR˘]vP]l r R]lXvB ˙]ooo}(}vXæA9U u]u]vo]PR}(R}vG]]vUl]vu˙}}vP UST˙o˙]vPo}}RooR ]l}P]vX(}u B vruoo˙ R Fu} R Svo_ ]vX }vo}(R]l]v(}R}UR}( ' The upside leeway for yields therefore appears to be }v}u]]˙]vRUSAv}v]o˙( ]v]vPo˙}v]vXSA _]v(}v}(R]uo rR]l]vP ˙ R Ful (} }vv }]vR]˙`}o'˙]P]]vv˙ }vPUS}ooX X L}vPrUS }v Poo˙}u]vP • GBPlUSDPTRu}vvP]l}(PG}vv]}U '}vu}P]vR]l}X FR `R]R]˙]oo˙}˘]}v]Uo}`]PR}v ]]`}o}u}oo˙PRuX R]R B }v[˘vooou}vRXW]R r P}]vr]+voURvl B }(vPov E ov A PG}ou]v˘uo˙}oo ]o]lo˙}}}v˙RFU]vPR • SB˙`RvRvv}vuo]vP_WR]Po} }v}o}ov' XFRo applied to the price of gold in the midst of the tragic }`v]}vo]}v}u]v˙R v]vUl]vXIvv˙]vPo]LR }vG]]vUl]vX price of the yellow precious metal to a level just shy of • UR E lCHFPTRG]PR}(RvRS`] ]ooruR]PR}(USDUæ}vU]]lo˙ franc to appreciate all the way to parity against the ]}Rl} USDUıX Ao}vP ]˙ } ]v MRXL A ovPR˙]}}(vvU RooUR}o}}l(}P}o]}v(}u RS`]N}vovl B }R]vv Rv]ovo˙]v}]vX V]`]vu}( ] }]vo}}Rl˙˙R}o}P]oooXH}`U (vuvoUR]}uo]]vR}(oo Ru}v˙}o]˙uv}v(vU worlds at the moment in any case because it stands RSNB]v [ u]oRRvovl to be a winner in both of the two most probable }v}Roo]u](}R(v[o r u}}v}u]v]}(}RRX I( }vXWv]RRSNB`]oooo}`R(v vovl} v}PRS]vG}v}ou_v r }](R]vo]PR}(Ro]vG}v }v}oUP}o`}ou]v]vuv}] pressure and will only try to modulate the speed at }v}}P]v]vG}vX I(U }vR `R]R]X }RRvURFv]}R}]vu r ]vP]vG}v˙(}(oo˙PRv]vPR]vr `UR]]v]o˙]}v}}uv]˙
TRu}}v}u]vP}}o]oo]u]RoovP r ]vPRu}uv(}]˙ ]v}U`R}] ]v ~} v }rP ˘v ]v o}vPr }v}v[R]]XTR}}(v r oPRv]vP}(USu}v˙}o]˙R(}(oo˙]v up market interest rates at the long end of the yield curve ]vR}(R]˙XTR}o]SR= A Y T˙}v B TF E R}]vPo˙]v] o}X Iv}]v R}l ulRv ]v r Rv]Rov]vv`lXIv(U RvRr]oo˙vRR}ll}v } } v` ooru R]PRX S}l o}}l } ]v]oo˙ ]vRRvP]vo}vPr}v]vR u}vR RX }v B `}v[}u u} ]vvP (}uovoRFrR]l]vP˙o ]}uoo˙]]vv]Pv}(]}v]vRUSA u}vXTRv[v}PR]Pv}(R~˙R(X
CZ]vZS}o]PZ S}l}}vMn S}lu]v]vov Stock/bond ratio: SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
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Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
11
TRu]vF}
W]ooCZ]v}u}Z`}o[]M
China conked out for the most part last year as an engine of economic growth. This year, in the face of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, the world economy could really use a reliable support pillar. However, it is questionable whether China can resume playing this role because the country faces challenges of its own.
I}o P]v W]ooR]v C }u}R`}o[]MTR]}v] ]v}ovRu}uvXOvvPR u }vG] ]v Ul]vX TR M]o K]vP}u }o l}v }o u]} R`v R] v Ul]vURRolR(}v]vPP ]o}uvPPuvXTR}RvPPo}o }v}u] ]˙X Iv R ( }( u}}v}u] ]l v o v]v˙U R `}o[ }vroP v}vo }v}u˙ }o }voo˙ o˙ } }oRR]˙U]Ru}Rv}v]vRX W Ro˙ ]v }]}v } iP `RR R]v C ] o}(}v]vP}}}o]vP}`vR`}P} }o]oR}}]vv]]]8o } `R (}]Pv v }v}u] }o]˙ ]}] X] J]v]vP v R R]v C }uuv] C P˙ ]vPX vA v` } R }v P]vP }v}u] P}`R] ]]}(}uoUo]o]l`]`]R }vX
r
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IvP}`Z}PZn Avo}v]Pvo˙v Economic growth in China 20%
15%
10%
5%
0
-5%
-10%
2010
2012
2014
2016
S}PBo}}uPUK]PvP]vl
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Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
2018
2020
S]Pv }( ]o]}v v ]l Ov R]vP ] ]vP AL ˙r}r˙ }v}u] growth in China slumped to a historic low (not countr ]vP R }}v] }v}v }( A=A9 ]v R (}R }( U v o}v ]v P}`R ] v}` r Pvo˙ v X M} }]v vo˙ o ]v ( R}`]vP ]Pv }( ]o]}vX CR]v ]v]o } U (} ˘uo U iu XæA9 ˙r }vr˙ ]v Jv˙ v F ˙ ~D u P A= XA9 U ov v ]uv v]vP P XA9 ~D r u P A= XıA9 U v ]vuv ]v ]v( } XA9 ~D u P A= XA9 X TR} vu oo vo˙ [ }vv u U }]vPo˙ causing the economic surprise index for China to turn Ro˙ ` X H}`U R }v}u] ] ]v CR]v oo˙ ]v[ } ] u . Pov +R r `]v o}`]vP (}u o `} ]}v X Ov R`]v] R }`vv]vCR]v [o }U `R]R ] v} } ˙ X TR .vv]o }( CR]v property developers has tended to further deterior rate lately while demand for real estate remains very `lX TR }ou }( ] u}PP } .vv R}u R (oo]vF ˙(}R.u]v R ]vP }8]oo˙ l ]v X Consumer spending in the broader sense poses the }v ]l } P}`RX TR v` ` }( COVIDr ı ]v r (}v v R ovPo}l}`v ]vuPo}}o] o]l SRvRv v SRvPR] `]oo o]lo˙ l u }v }vu [ R}]vP ] (} R u ]vPX C}vu vuvU]vv˙ UR o˙]uu ]Pv].vo˙X X
M} o]lo˙ ~Zo(r]vG o]( CR]v P}vuv }8]o R }o˙ }P v] R vuv v } v }v v R ] `}o ' (} }v}u] ]˙ } R]L P R]PR }}vX S]o]˙ ~v }vo˙ }vv o] vuv ] v W `R R } W ]v R v } R R P˙ C}vP ]v uvU `R P]v X] o}}l } o } R] u ]v }8 X AP]v R] l} U R }vo˙ R]vP ]]vP } R GDP P}`R P }( A=æXæA9}o]u RN}voP}o [C}vP ]v MR ] R ] ] ˙ u]} v `oo } R }vv (} X
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S}u P}vuv }8]o R o˙ lv R r }]o o ]v }vv}v `]R R o P}`R u]}v X B ] u ]u }o]vP } r v}u] ]˙ ~ XPX ] ˘ (v v ˘ U moves to ease pressure on the real estate sector or ]}v l } }o]] ]Pv } uo R ul ]v R ] } ~R o} } R v. }( R }uv] U R R vv} R}P }( v r v}vuv ]v v `l X TR} `} v}` o]lo˙ } (}oo}` ˙ ~v u} }v ]v R }v X TR ov˙ }( ]o }v}o o } i X Iv ]}v } o}}v]vP }u P r o}˙ `~ U (R ]v r ˙ R P} r o [ B vl }( CR]v v ]P}} .o uo o} o}vP ]v R }˙X A P o }( u}v˙ (} . r o } ] o˙ ]v o (} o}o governments in China have the authority to carry over (v]vP (}u } R v ˙X E v CR]v [ o]u u]}v vo]lo˙ } v ]v R `˙ }( R S]o]}v_ P}o ]v R] ]o ˙X TR P} r ernment accordingly did not state any explicit decarr }v]}v } vP˙ }vu}v }v P R N}vo P}o [C}vP X In the balancing act between necessary reforms and R v (} ]o]˙U R vou]vC R]v o}}l } `]vP l ]v R }}] ] }v ]v R u}vR R X TR] R}o o ]v ] o Po}v v ] u} P}`R X H}` U `ol]vP PR} r tween those two poles will become increasingly more ]8o (} C R]v [ v}vo }v}u˙ ] ] ~v ] ] ]o]]u P}` oPX D ] oo }( R ( r (} } uo }v}u] ]˙U P}`R }( A= æX æA9 R o˙ u R] o (}u }˙ [ XS}U R [ } v` } R P}`R }v } R } }( R] o P oR}PR C R]v ] vo]lo˙ } l }v P}`R R] ˙U ` `}o v} ]` R }v˙ o](}˙ (} R `}o }v}u˙X
M}}]vZv]]vP}vZ]Qn Economic surprise index for China
Q]vvPv}o˙}u]]
150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
S}PBo}}uPUK]PvP]vl
lB }]vP`]ZP]vooMn China’s credit impulse
TRP}vuv}(R]v C ]]vPv}R}v}(}v}u]uo
15%
10%
5%
0
-5%
-10%
-15%
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
S}PBo}}uPUK]PvP]vl
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
13
SG E PS]v]o]˙}v D]uvW]+v]l
Divest or engage? This is one of the fundamental questions in the realm of sustainable investing, and the current climate and geopolitical pressures have pushed it back into the foreground. Recent studies show that the “simpler” solution – divestment – indeed makes an impact, but comes with its own risks
14
A ]l˙ ]}v SR}o }v ] ]v } } ]lo˙ E SG risks in an investment portfolio this way and indir rectly raise unsustainable companies’ cost of capital ~] (oo]vP }l ] U } ] } vPP ]v ]o}P `]R E SG oPP v }u v] } r ing in controversial industries to collaboratively find `˙ } u} ]v o R M TR] ]}v ] being pondered mainly by large institutional invesr } U ]v ]vPo˙ o} ˙ ]o ]v } X SB }`v _ companies particularly in the petroleum and natural P } }( v R v }( R SD } E M _ ]}v X B R v} ]uo v` ]v R r v o]u v P}}o]] o }v˘ X TR P v v r ergy revolution to combat rapidly advancing climate RvP ] v]]}vo }o ]}v o]l }u] v r P˙ v v o P X I [ v} (} v}R]vP R R} technologies have recently been deemed eligible to o](˙ v]}vuvoo˙ ]v o v R E U ˘}v}u˙X S}U v R}PR R] u˙ ]v }u E SG }}vv U o ]vP }u v] ]v}o ]v R areas from one’s personal investment universe perr R ] v} R }o ]}v X
less out of a green conscience and more in view of the potential adverse impact on investment return (}uv X J v v]}v (v GPIFU ]v v U has long been a staunch advocate of engagement on o]u rRvP RoovP X
M v`R]o U R }v(o] ]v Ul ]v ] v v] o˙ ](( v ]}v PD } R (v } o}R } P } ]v R ]v ]o]˙ }v }( R E SG grid so that it doesn’t risk suffering the divestment fate? Proposals put forth last year by the European Uv]}v } ]Pv R (v ]v ˙ }]oo˙ R u(o U ]v v˙ U } R v i ]v a final report on what constitutes socially sustainable (]vv o]R ]vo F ˙XS` ]R vlSE BU (} ] U R o ˙ u U r v P ( R ]vP imposed a blanket ban on defense stocks last year (} }u }( ] ]v uv (v U SE B vo˙ } r turned the exclusion and now allows investments P]v ]v R (v }X TR ` ]v Ul ]v r u]v }v u} R E SG W o]l } uv˙ R]vP ]v ]v ]vP W ] }uo] v v v X L P ]v r stitutional investors are also split into two camps on R ]}v }( ] uv } vPPuv X B l ]v ı U N}`˙ [ } ]Pv ` oR (v ] } }( r (o} USD X æ ]oo]}v `} R }( ]v uv R}o]vP ]v }]o v P }u v] X Ov R }R Rv U }v }( R o P US v]}v (v ~C oSTRS vo˙ }] } }]]}v } oP]o ] ]oo R `}o ] ] } ] (}u S}`v _ v ] ~R}PR ] ] }
TZ ] uv ] v TR ]o ]o]˙ }( }v R o r`}o ]u }( divestment strategies has improved considerably in v ˙ X TR] v o ]v } `R} Ru r o }v(}v `]R R D ]}v } o }v r ]]}v R] ]]}v }v ( v ˙ (]v]vP X TR] o] o (} R }]o v P }X A R o]R ˙ R Uv] ]˙ }( W o}} ~]v C v }]v } U (} ˘uo U R R }( v r gy companies underperform the broad market after large institutional investors disclose their divestment ov X A ˙ }v R E } v v P˙ } ˙ R Uv] ]˙ }( A P P }v(]u R R oo]vP r sure exerted by divestment campaigns leads to lower }l ] X B v} }vo˙ R U R }u v] (( r } R] v vo˙ o}` R] C O u] ]}v ]Pv](] vo˙X TR ] uv v R evidently become so powerful in the meantime that ] R o ˙ R] ] o }i ] X D ] r ments can exert sustained downward pressure on }l ] U v]R } } ]uP v ] R } }( ] o (} }u v] X TR uvPuv }( the companies affected thus increasingly find themr o }u oo } R]vl R] }o}P] o(}} ]v X
Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
The oil price wager S}U ]` R}PR R] ov U ] uv }o ] o v U o v} o U o ]u r v } r]vv] o v ] } vPPuv X B R}o }v U v} } ( X I( ]v } }uo o˙ R` ]v r uv ]v v P˙ }u v] U R] } (}o]} } r ]vPo˙ v `]PR ]v R }]o v P }X TR] means that they are ultimately placing an active bet on the price of petroleum because energy stocks R R R]PR ˙ ( } R ] }( }]o X TR] ] not a problem when crude oil is in a structural bear u l ~o]l ] ` ]v R XB `R ]( R ] of oil soars sharply and stays high? The past year vivr ]o˙ ]oo R (( }v v P˙ }l X WR} didn’t have them in his or her portfolio risked postr ]vP o}`r P v (}uv X TR] u˙ be immaterial to a retail investor who primarily feels }v ˙ R] } R }v ]v X B (} ]v ] ]}vo ]v } U `R]R oo˙ ~u u R] (} r uv P]v vRu l U R ] o}}l ](( r v R S]l } (}uv _ v RP P if the energy sector had been excluded from the MSC I W}o ]v ˘ (} R (] }( R] v ˙U R] `}o R o}` ] v ˙ X v r P }]v X W } v} `v } l R } v]oo˙ very expensive bets in our asset management manr X K] P v P] vl R (} } v} P}] oo˙ ˘o S}`v _ }u v] (}u R ]v uv v] X D ] uv } vPPuv M We think that we can make a bigger contribution to sustainability by engaging in active dialogue with }u v] X
Poo˙v]n The energy sector rises and falls with the price of oil Energy sector (USA and Europa) vs. price of Brent crude oil
140
120
100
80
60
40
20 2020
2021 S&P500 Energy
2022
Stoxx 600 Stoxx Oil & Gas
Crude oil (Brent)
S}PBo}}uPUK]PvP]vl
M]vZPn Energy sector as a risk to performance Annualized performance 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 -20% -40% -60% 2001-2010
2011-2020 MSCI World
2020
2021
MSCI Energy
S}PBo}}uPUK]PvP]vl
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
15
TRBlPP oA Pv
P(}uv }( MZ Asset class
YTD
M}vZ
1 Year
3 Years
Cash CHF
-0.2%
r X9A
rX9A
rX9A
UR E
-0.1%
X A9
r XæA9
rX9A
X9A
X A9
X9A
USD
0.1%
F]˘Iv}u
0
S}]Pv}v
-4.5%
Corporate bonds
-7.5%
Microfinance
0.3%
Iv(o]}vro]vl}v
-3.1%
H]PRr˙]o }v
-4.4%
uP]vP E rul}v
-9.9%
Ivvro]vl}v
0.5%
Convertible bonds E ]]
-6.6%
-4.6%
S`] ov
-5.5%
X9A
XıA9
rXA9
æX A9
XıA9 X9A
r XıA9
r X A9
r X A9
r XıA9
X A9
X9A
X9A
X A9
r æX A9
X A9
X9A
X9A
æX9A
X A9
X9A
X9A
X A9
4.7%
USA
X9A X A9
rX9A
-9.2%
UK -5.3%
Emerging markets
rX9A r X A9
XæA9 X A9
0
Global Europa
rX9A rX9A
-7.3%
A o v]
X A9
X9A
ıX9A
æX9A
XæA9
X A9
X A9
rXæA9
rX9A
XıA9
0
Commodities
25.5%
Gold
5.9%
Ro S`]ov
-4.2%
Hedge funds
-1.2%
C v]
X A9
ıX9A
æX9A
XæA9
X æA9
ıXıA9
r X A9
XA9
X9A
X A9
X9A
æX A9
0
EUR lUSD
-2.7%
UR E lCHF
-1.6%
GBPlUSD
-2.9%
rX9A
ræX9A
rXA9
rX9A
rX9A
r XæA9
rX9A
rX9A
X A9
Ov}APv A]o}PIv]Gu]vTZHP TR`}S]v]_uvSv}vX_Iu}]R.PRvP]]}(`}vU]vi v]l}o]Uv}v].`Ruvv`}uvvR]}r]vi˙XTRPuR vR}`}(}}]v]P(}R}`R}R]}v˙X A]oPW}oIvoooP}˙˙D PvUulU}]PvU}˙]PRW]vooo}˙]PR˙ooX TR˙(}]vv}}vv]˙XW}oIP˙D Rvovvoo˙]vR˙ }]o]`v}(R](XTR]˙ [Ru]PIvoooP}˙vY}RW Ivv}vP(}'B FX A]oıPPo]u]v˙QGDPu(}Guv˙ T]}voP}`RvP]vGuv˙'}vooRv}(o˙XP]v o˙rR]v}'ovlvR}vG]}Ul]v]uuP}`R}(}R. }(`ooXASRv]o_]}v}o˙vv}X
16
Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
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Notes
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Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022
17
TR]}uv}v]v]R(]vv]ovo˙]v}v]uvXI] ]vv }oo˙ (} ]v(}u]}vo }X N}v }( R ]v(}u]}v }v]v R]v}v]}o]]]}v }}uuv]}v˙ K]PvP]vl AG to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to take any other actions regarding v˙(]vv]o]vuvXFRu}UR]v(}u]}v}v]vR]v}v} }v]]vuv]Xv˙ A (v]vR]}uv(}uv } v} Pv }( }]] ((}uvX K] Pv P]vl GA u v} o]]o]˙ (} R }uovU }v } vv }( the information contained herein or for any losses or damages arising from any ]}vlv}vR]}(R]v(}u]}v]vR]}uvXoo A }vv}(R] }uv}˙]vooo}˙o`U]oo˙˙}˙]PRo`X The reprinting or reproduction of all or any parts of this document in any way or form for public or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited unless prior written }vvRv˘o]]o˙Pv˙K]PvP]vlGA X
18
Monthly Market Monitor - April 2022 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
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