Only Aylmer will need additional development land over next 30 years

by Rob Perry of The

Aylmer Express

No Elgin County municipalities except Aylmer will need additional land designated for commercial, industrial and residential growth over the next 20 years, consultants told county councillors in a meeting earlier this year, in late June.

Consultants Hemson and Stantech had prepared a “population, housing and employment forecasts and associated land needs analysis” as part of the county’s review and updating of its official plan, which governs new development.

Stefan Krzeczunowicz of Hemson said that the consultants had tackled 30 years of growth needs (beyond the required 25), in case any shortages might appear in the 2040s that would need to be addressed.

Such forecasts involved uncertainties, he continued, which was why they would need to be adjusted from time to time. Getting the next 10 years right for the plan was most important now.

“Surge of growth”

“There’s been a surge of housing growth since about the time of the 2016 (Canada) census,” he said, and that wasn’t unique to Elgin County.

“Millennials” were purchasing their first homes, he said, while “baby boomers” were buying retirement homes. “We expect this phenomenon to continue,” and to spill over to an extent to the east and west ends of Elgin, especially in Aylmer, but not at the same rate as being seen now in Central Elgin and Southwold.

The COVID-19 pandemic seemed partly responsible, creating a migration of city dwellers into smaller communities and rural areas, especially since evolving technology allowed them to work from home.

He wasn’t sure if that was a temporary or permanent trend, but the forecasts didn’t expect any large surge in additional remote workers.

On the commercial and industrial side, Mr. Krzeczunowicz continued, Elgin was primed for significant growth. Having more residents here would generate new jobs, and the county had some good areas designated for commercial and industrial development– the new Amazon warehouse and distribution centre in Southwold on the site of the former Ford plant being a good example.

Population growth trends were complex in the Elgin census area, which included St. Thomas, he stated. Between the mid-1980s and mid-2000s, St. Thomas’s population had grown and Elgin’s had declined.

Then the recession hit in 2008-09, and growth slowed, but in recent years, had resumed at levels not seen since the mid1980s.

Building permits

St. Thomas by far was issuing the most building permits for new homes, and to a lesser extent Central Elgin, which in recent years has had about 45% of all new housing starts in the county.

From 2021 to 2026, the study expected population growth in Elgin to outstrip St. Thomas, but after that the city would have the edge, expected to see its steepest increase since the early 1990s.

The forecasts suggested the rate of new housing growth would be faster than population growth in Elgin County in the next 30 years. With young families moving here, the overwhelming demand would continue to be for single-family homes, but with new planning policies in place to encourage “intensification,” the stock of apartments and rowhouses would also go up.

The county’s inventory of 668.2 hectares of vacant land available for residential growth should be sufficient for most Elgin municipalities out to 2051, with the one exception being Aylmer.

Aylmer’s needs

The town would need an additional 21 hectares on top of what it already had, which would be enough for 600 new homes.

Aylmer “is the county’s largest settlement area and has unique characteristics as a regional service centre that makes it a particularly attractive location for housing growth and intensification,” the study found. “Aylmer runs out of residential land shortly after 2041.

“It’s a very long-term issue.” of vacant land designated for industrial and commercial use, and by 2051 would need to use 170 hectares of that.

Most residential growth in the county, Mr. Krzeczunowicz noted, would take place in “Tier 1” settlement areas like Aylmer, which had full municipal water and sanitary sewage systems.

Population growth

Turning to population projections, the study expected Aylmer would increase to 10,760 residents from 7,920 now, Bayham to 8,300 from 7,300, Malahide to 12,800 from 9,570, Central Elgin to 18,330 from 14,090, Southwold to 6,040 from 4,980, Dutton Dunwich to 5,100 from 4,260 and West Elgin to 5,560 from 5,170.

The study also included a long list of recommendations to help achieve goals such as growth, intensification of resident uses, increased variety in housing types and growth of commercial and industrial businesses.

Bayham Mayor Ed Ketchabaw, rural initiatives and planning, observed, “There was a lot of material there to digest.”

The county’s inventory of 668.2 hectares of vacant land available for residential growth should be sufficient for most Elgin municipalities out to 2051, with the one exception being Aylmer.

Aylmer was expected to have 1,180 additional homes in 2051, Malahide 1,270, Bayham 690, Central Elgin 2,450, Southwold 770, Dutton Dunwich 480 and West Elgin 380.

Employment growth

Mr. Krzeczunowicz, turning to employment, said the area was just starting to recover from the losses sustained during the 2008-09 recession.

The London areas was returning to pre-pandemic employment levels much quicker that the rest of Ontario, he noted. He forecasted “robust growth” in new jobs over the next 30 years, with some inevitable ups and downs. Many of the new jobs would be in the retail and service industry, created by a growing population, followed by agriculture and also tourism, he expected. However, the majority of new employment should come in business and industrial parks.

The study anticipated Aylmer would have 19.8% of the new jobs in the county; Southwold 29.2% partly due to the new Amazon warehouse; Central Eglin 16.6%; Malahide 12.8%; Bayham 8%; Dutton Dunwich 5.2% and West Elgin 8.4%.

The county currently had 265 hectares

West Elgin Mayor Duncan McPhail said he had noticed that official plans seemed to lack language that would encourage residential growth in communities that already had surplus water, sewage and school capacities, rather than building new homes and then having to upgrade or install such services and build new schools.

He didn’t believe municipalities received enough support to allow for the easy development of lands, he continued, and that some of what was designated as future residential land wasn’t really desirable for that purpose, such as when property backed onto a sewage treatment plant.

West Elgin was about to conduct its own official plan update, he noted, and he would drive the planning consultants involved around his municipality to point out such potential conflicts.

“Doing the same old thing and expecting a different result isn’t going to work,” he stated.

Mr. Krzeczunowicz said municipal official plans were where communities could take control over how growth looked on the ground.

The county didn’t really have that kind of control in its official plan, he said. “This is just an exercise in steering growth to the right communities.”