John Furlow: USAID's approach to adaptation

USAID’s Approach to Adaptation High Mountain and Glacier Watershed Program July 15, 2013 John Furlow, Global Climate Change Office USAID

USAID’s Climate and Development Strategy • Mitigation • Adaptation • Integration across Agency activities Adaptation emphasizes: • Highly vulnerable countries • Ability or willingness to respond • LDCS, SIDS, Glacierdependent countries

Weather, Climate, and Economics

• Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors • ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture

Ethiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, Ethiopia: Rainfall, and Agric. GDP GDP GDP Growth

Adaptation Programs

Aim to reduce vulnerability in key development sectors • Build access and capacity to apply scientific information • Improve Governance • Implement programs • to build resilience.

Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Growth GCC Adaptation Inputs Information communication and use

Governance capacity

Today Vulnerable economy: • Climatesensitive economic activities

• Missing incentives and policies

2050 Resilient Economy:

Climate-resilient growth Agriculture, resource management

Economic and social development Education, infrastructure, etc.

• Uneven growth, income distribution • Weak governance

Planning and design

Low emissions development

New technologies

GCC Mitigation Inputs

Improved market conditions

Strategic financing

• Diversified economy • More equitable, income distribution • Safety from climate-related disasters • Adequate, clean energy

USAID’s Mainstreaming Approach

Requirements for development objectives Inputs Enabling environment

Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate Non-climate

Solutions

Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses Actions to reduce non-climate stresses Actions with co-benefits

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Problem Formulation and Program Design

Development objectives

USAID’s Mainstreaming Approach: Food Security

Development objectives: Food Security

Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate – Extreme rainfall events, higher temps, drought, delayed rains Non-climate – Poor sanitation, rapid population growth, infectious disease, perverse incentives, poor infrastructure, risk aversion, post harvest losses

Solutions Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses – e.g., access to tailored climate forecasts, seeds, water harvesting, irrigation, credit, insurance, etc.

Actions to reduce non-climate stresses – WASH, health programs, better storage, etc

m I ec neili s e R

Problem Formulation and Program Design

Requirements for development objectives Inputs: seeds, land, water, fertilizer, labor, credit, savings, transport, markets, public health, etc.

Enabling environment: Effective governance, stable society, land tenure, price incentives, etc.

Matching Information with Decisions

• • • • •

What is important to stakeholders?

What decisions are being made?

Which can you influence?

What is the timeframe of the decision?

What information would inform a better decision?

Global level Uncertainties are Large; Regional level are larger (Individual Model Runs and Averages)

East Africa

Giannini et al., 2007

Key Opportunities/Demands: Climate Change

Limitations of “traditional” climate change scenarios • Uncertainties

• Double Conflict of Scales (too course, too far in the future) • Trends (“Climate Change”) Explain Relatively Small Proportion of Total Variability

Walter Baethgen, IRI

Mean Monthly Rainfall in SW Uruguay (1910 – 2010)

350

Precipitation (mm)

300

Pick 15 years randomly

250 200 150 100 50 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Month

Walter Baethgen, IRI

7

8

9

10

11

12

SW Uruguay: Monthly Precipitation (15 Randomly Selected Years) 350

Precipitation (mm)

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Month

Walter Baethgen, IRI

7

8

9

10

11

12

None of the years behaves like the long term mean

Probability of a year being “Average” = ZERO Still, Planning/Decisions are often based on “AVERAGE” year

Can we do better?

• • • •

Seasonal Climate Forecasts Understand Historical Variability / associated risks Study possible characteristics of Future Climate Link it to Decision Systems Walter Baethgen, IRI

Probability (Density)

Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS

Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production) Walter Baethgen, IRI

Probability (Density)

Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS

Ag Production Systems, Water Management, are designed to avoid this HARDSHIP e.g., Drought

CRISIS e.g., Mitch

Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)

Walter Baethgen, IRI

Probability (Density)

Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS

Ag Production Systems, Water Management, are designed to avoid this

Also Critical For Development: Risk aversion reduces Technology Adoption Effect on Natural Resources “Poverty Traps”

HARDSHIP e.g., Drought

CRISIS e.g., Mitch

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production) Walter Baethgen, IRI

Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS

Probability (Density)

Cover this to be able to take advantage of this HARDSHIP e.g., Drought

CRISIS e.g., Mitch

INDEX INSURANCE Insurance that does not aim to Compensate Damage but to Take Advantage of Opportunities

Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)

Jamaica’s Vision for Development

Climate elements of ImpactSensitive on Fisheries Jamaica’s Vision 2030 • • • • • • • • • • •

Healthy and Stable Population World Class Education Social Protection Stable Macro Economy Enabling Business Environment Strong Economic Infrastructure Energy Security Competitive Industries Sustainable Management of Resources Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation Sustainable Urban and Rural Development

ADDRESSING CLIMATE STRESS IN DEV. PROGRAMS Vision 2030 Economic drivers / Development objectives Food Security, Economic Growth, Tourism, Health

Inputs – Agricultural systems, fisheries, markets, natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, labor Essential conditions – Safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate – Natural disasters, changes in rainfall, temperature, sea level rise Non-climate – Demographic pressure, pollution, corruption, chronic poverty, conflict Solutions

Design

Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses – Strengthen Weather/Climate Services, Improved early warnings, capacity building, public awareness, better natural resources management, financial services Actions to reduce non-climate stresses – Policy measures to address pollution

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Diagnose problems

Requirements for development objectives

EXAMPLES FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS

EXAMPLE FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS: TOURISM Internationally Competitive Industry Structures (Vision 2030 Outcome) Lack of access to training Beaches (Input)

Flooding

Pollution

Tourism (Sector)

Labor (Input)

Sea level rise

Coral reefs (Input) Warmer temps

Pollution

Greater rainfall intensity

Security/safety (Enabling condition)

Fuel costs Reliable Tropical transportation storms (Enabling condition) Energy costs

Sea level rise

Reliable electricity supply (Enabling condition)

Warmer temps

EXAMPLE FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS: TOURISM Flooding Analyze & disseminate weather & climate info.

Improve coastal resources management Update zoning regulations & building codes Share lessons learned

Beaches (Input)

Sea level rise

Pollution

Raise public awareness Policies to complement on-the-ground actions Enforce existing laws & regulations

Sea walls, groins, other manmade beach defenses Artificial reefs Update engineering and design standards

Restore coastal vegetation Beach nourishment Train developers & contractors in more resilient approaches

Climate Services: Jamaica Ag Extension and Met Service • Seasonal predictions of rainfall and drought conditions.

– New systems for predicting drought conditions, based on the Standardized Precipitation Index – Additional work forecasting of soil moisture conditions

• Improving communication of agricultural climate risk management practices • Climate services implementation in three target agricultural sites: – SW St. Elizabeth, – Manchester/Christiana, – Guy’s Hill

Thank You

• USAID Climate Page –

http://www.usaid.gov/climate

• Adaptation Partnership –

http://www.adaptationpartnership.org/

• Climate Services Partnership –

http://climate-services.org/node