JLL Research Report - Energy Outlook

North America | 2018

JLL Research Report

Energy Outlook

2

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

What’s inside?

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

3

Key energy themes The evolution of energy markets: Office and industrial

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Doing more with less: A look into flexibility and space use

6

Infrastructure & Technology: Moving the industry forward, and what’s keeping it back

8

Hot takes: Quick insights into the market

10 U.S. Energy markets Dallas – Office

Canadian energy markets 16

Edmonton - Industrial

23

17

Calgary – Office

24

Houston – Office

18

Calgary – Industrial

25

Houston – Industrial

19

Pittsburgh – Office

20

Pittsburgh – Industrial

21

Denver - Office

22

Fort Worth – Office

4

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

The evolution

of energy markets: Office and industrial

Even in an industry known for boom-bust cycles, the extreme oil price correction experienced from 2014 to 2017 left an indelible mark on energy companies and their real estate.

Thankfully, late 2017 marked an inflection point with West Texas Intermediate’s (WTI’s) prices crossing the $50-per-barrel threshold and still moving upward today. But the recovery process has been quite measured. This is evident in most energy office markets, which continue to reel from erratic demand for new space and record sublease inventories.

Turning the corner Energy office markets are still in a weakened state but have finally stabilized, with most of the rightsizing, space give-backs and consolidations complete. WTI’s recent close above $70 per barrel has provided some budget clarity for firms, which is one reason 2018 has seen an uptick in energy leasing activity in some markets.

Office Industry cyclicality can create hypergrowth situations punctuated by atrophy periods. Unfortunately for the energy sector, this transition occurred within a few brief months, leaving many companies overcommitted to office space at a time when they needed to cut costs. The most recent down cycle has left energy-dense markets across North America grappling with outsized sublease volumes and rising vacancy amid occupiers’ efforts to restructure real estate footprints. Denver is the outlier, having seen increased absorption and shrinking sublease inventories.

Office markets

Price stabilization has allowed for capital budgets to increase, and firms are starting to eye new rounds of hiring. Though this activity has not yet translated into net growth, the increased volume in space requirements and energy transactions is encouraging. A long road remains, as energy-tenant occupancy levels have grown only in Pittsburgh so far this year.

Energy tenant occupancy as a percentage of overall office tenancy Calgary Houston Denver

Pittsburgh 2016

Dallas

2017

2018

Fort Worth 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Office tenants signing leases in most energy markets today are capitalizing on the bottoming of the cycle by negotiating cheaper rents and more flexible expansion and contraction options, and signing on for shorter lease terms.

Tenant concessions remain elevated but have plateaued.

Looking ahead, Houston, Calgary and Fort Worth are each expected to remain tenant-favorable through at least 2019.

Industrial Energy-heavy industrial markets have remained steady over the course of the downturn, with pockets of weakness far outweighed by increased downstream investment.

Distilling or cracking crude oil into petrochemical feedstocks is driving investment along the Gulf Coast and Appalachian areas. Houston is projected to export up to 4 million tons of resins by 2021, while the Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio region is considering a multi-billiondollar ethane storage hub. In contrast to the office market, this most recent cycle has parlayed into many opportunities for industrial real estate.

Downstream multiplier effect The value of these feedstocks, as well as plentiful, cheap natural gas and emerging markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG), has created demand for new industrial development. Industrial completions forecasted over the next three years almost doubled between 2017 and 2018 to 21.5 million square feet, driven in part by energy demand.

Even in Edmonton, which has been slower to recover, expected deliveries tripled from last year as stronger oil prices have resulted in increased drilling.

Industrial UC vs. forecasted completions 2018-2020 15

Millions of s.f.

Sublease space is down 15.5 percent collectively across the markets from 2016, backfilling at a steep discount to direct space. Houston continues to have the largest sublease inventory in North America at 9.5 million square feet.

Under Construction

Future Completions

10

5

0 Pittsburgh

Calgary

Edmonton

With oil prices climbing considerably over the last year, new avenues for growth are emerging, especially for industrial energy markets.

The sector is capitalizing on opportunities at all stages of production, from the well-head to exports destined for the global marketplace.

On the office side, markets like Dallas and Denver are seeing energy-related private equity open new doors, while the Canadian markets face further turbulence due to legislation, infrastructure uncertainties, and an

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imbalance between Canadian and American pricing. Despite upticks in activity, all energy office markets, outside of Denver, are projecting no growth in overall energy occupancy through 2020; companies are more focused on adopting innovative technology and securing talent.

In an industry where paradigm shifts are not uncommon, an effective real estate strategy is more critical than ever.

Houston

6

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Doing more with less: A look into flexibility and space use

The energy industry is moving into a new cycle, defined by a breakneck expansion of American production and refining capacity, incredible technological advances and a generational shift among its workers. Most importantly, however, laser-focus on cost control and the new normal of “doing more with less” is now influencing energy tenants’ lease structures and space use.

Building flexibility into your lease When oil prices were high, energy companies―especially upstream firms―were not as concerned with real estate exposure. They foresaw continued expansion and executed “large and long” real estate strategies to lock in massive amounts of space for an extended period. This overcommitment and inflexibility proved very costly.

The rapidity of the fall left markets with rising vacancy, record sublease volumes and little hope for recovery.

Today, because of lessons learned, scrutiny from financial markets and a new culture of cost-cutting, more creative approaches to real estate are now being employed.

By and large, the deal structure desired today is shorter and much more flexible, and allows energy companies to hedge risk by baking nimbleness into their lease document. This “layer cake” approach typically involves a core amount of space reserved for traditional occupancy with expansion options available for smaller amounts of space over the term. In addition, rights to contract and/or terminate―also at various points throughout the lease term―are negotiated to provide the flexibility needed to manage operational fluctuations.

Office lease “layer cake” structure

2 years remaining (termination/ contraction option) 4 years remaining (10,000 s.f. expansion option) 6 years remaining (termination/contraction option) 8 years remaining (10,000 s.f. expansion option) 10-year term (25,000 s.f.)

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Flexible space Flexible or “co-working” space is another avenue energy firms are now exploring. Though some specialties within the sector like private equity have already planted flags in the flex space world, even the most traditional multi-nationals are now exploring options.

Whether to act as a relief valve by absorbing immediate employee growth or to establish satellite locations in metros after a consolidation, flex space allows companies to ebb and flow without the burden of long-term leases or costly buildouts. As flex space providers scale at a shocking pace and their focus evolves from start ups to more traditional corporate users (which now make up more than 30 percent of WeWork’s clientele), expect more energy users to adopt this model.

Considering forecasted growth in the industry in the near term, firms should contemplate a more layered occupancy strategy that includes flexible space. This will help to mitigate the risk of market and human capital fluctuations and avoid the sting of space over-commitment as seen in the last cycle.

Workplace strategy for a new generation Given generational preferences for traditional office-heavy buildouts, energy tenants, especially those in the upstream sector, have been one of the last industry groups to implement modern occupancy strategies.

However, space use in this industry has finally begun to evolve to meet the needs of today’s workers―and also react to cost pressures in today’s ‘lower for longer’ environment.

Energy firms are embracing space plans within well-amenitized, modern workplaces preferred by the next generation of talent. These serve as not only a recruiting and retention tool, but also a place that is more productive and healthier for its employees.

Recent benchmarking data from Gensler shows energy firms have reduced their space per employee since the oil downturn, both in the usable square feet (USF) per person and office/workstation size. The USFper-person metric peaked in 2014 at 375 USF, but tenants today are using far less, between 200 and 300 USF/person. Additionally, the percentage of open office space has increased.

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Looking ahead, the clear movement toward well-amenitized, modern properties that support efficient buildouts will accelerate. A more even split between open workstations and private offices with more hoteling, collaboration and private space will become the norm. However, the “full mobility” office buildouts used by some professional firms―where employees are untethered by permanently assigned workstations―are unlikely to take root on a broad scale in this sector.

Long-term, these systemic shifts in office buildouts will result in slower rebound in the absorption of vacant space, given that firms are using less space per employee.

8

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Infrastructure & Technology Moving the industry forward, and what’s keeping it back

With the price of oil strengthening, crude inventories falling and North American oil rig counts now above 1,100, the energy industry is finally gaining momentum.

markets will see an increase in demand for office space. The pipeline construction itself would present opportunities to those in the industrial manufacturing sectors.

Putting aside traditional success measures, there are systemic changes afoot playing a role in either bolstering the industry or hampering its progress.

The adoption of the latest technologies and the need for a more robust energy delivery infrastructure are presenting challenges and opportunities for further expansion.

In west Texas, more than half of the oil rigs in the United States can be found in the Permian Basin where a severe shortage in pipeline capacity exists. To meet this demand, EPIC Midstream is planning to construct a 730-mile pipeline spanning the New Mexico border to Corpus Christi, with Apache Corporation and Noble Energy signing on as primary users.

Pipelines Essential to the oil and gas industry is the underlying infrastructure and none is as important as the pipeline network. Pipelines transport oil, gas or their derivatives to ports or refineries where it can then be shipped to other parts of the world or refined and used domestically. Where some regions benefit from a vast network of pipelines, areas such as Alberta and west Texas are facing a capacity shortage given burgeoning production and overburdened infrastructure.

In Canada, Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline project is a $7.4 billion expansion proposed to run parallel to the existing Trans Mountain pipeline. Connecting output from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific coast, the expansion will increase capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 barrels of oil per day and unlock access to world markets. In a time in which trade agreements with the U.S. are not entirely guaranteed, Canada is looking to take the initiative in seeking out trade partners overseas, though it has some domestic hurdles to overcome first. The project has been met with strong opposition from British Columbia and today sits in limbo.

In the meantime, energy-centric cities such as Calgary have seen minimal improvement in the office market despite the price of oil rising considerably. Should the pipeline projects gain approval, Canadian

Epic Pipeline to build 730mile LNG line in Texas

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

North American LNG export terminals Existing

Approved

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A technology boom Where the need for pipeline capacity is holding back the potential of the North American energy market, technology is playing its part in advancing it―not just in the oil patch but at the desktop as well.

Energy firms have made enormous investments into cutting-edge technology to develop resources and generate operational efficiencies. In the field, artificial intelligence, IoT connectivity and machine learning are outfitting drillers with the tools they need to optimize production. In the office, big data, cloud computing and new mapping capabilities have grown increasingly sophisticated as geologists are able to visualize shale fields and subsea formations in real time in 3D visualization labs.

Importantly, these advances have been diffused into office settings without the burden of massive supercomputers directly on-site. Thus, technology has allowed energy companies to scale back on operational costs and the number of employees while requiring best-in-class, digitally connected real estate to support the technology demands.

Other firms like Phillips 66, Enterprise Products Partners, and Magellan Midstream are also working on pipelines to alleviate this bottleneck. Continued expansion of Texas pipelines will also further solidify the U.S.’s role as a leading exporter of LNG while the number of North American LNG export terminals is expected to boom from 3 to 16 in coming years.

Technology has unlocked efficiencies in the daily operations of energy firms and have altered the way energy firms evaluate their office footprint. Innovations seen today in the office were largely foreign concepts to the oil and gas industry of the past, but when paired with all the new tech being seen at the well-head to optimize production, the future is now for the energy industry.

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Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Hot takes Quick insights into the

Houston • Energy leasing activity up, but not net growth―renewals, contractions • Concessions high but plateauing • Worst behind us, improved conditions in next few years • High office vacancy, sublease space • Sustained weakness in energyheavy submarkets Pittsburgh • Energy tenant demand weak but still present • Some improvement in conditions but not due to energy • Large sublease blocks being added • Increasing vacancy through reduced footprints for efficiency • Shortage of energy leasing in traditional energy-heavy submarkets

office

market

Calgary • Turbulent with regulations and legislation • Pipeline uncertainty―market in holding pattern without new infrastructure • Sublease space still prevalent • Economic recovery occurring but not enough to improve office conditions • Nimble companies taking advantage of discounted rates Denver • Rebounding oil prices leading to increased leasing activity • Rightsizing, restructuring, renewing, reduced footprints • Sublease down from 2016 high, half of energy sublease backfilled • Legislative initiatives creating risk and uncertainty • Energy private-equity investments at highest point since slump commenced

Dallas • Energy sector stable and diverse―shake-out complete • Efficiency and cost control still rule the day but measured growth anticipated • Investment activity, spin-offs and unit purchases occurring • New corporate campus for Pioneer Resources Fort Worth • Rightsizing continues, but some expansion and growth occurring • Industry diversification for metro―decreased energy occupancy • Tenants becoming more efficient as leases roll, shedding excess space • Startups and spin-offs are leasing space • XTO move to Houston putting owner-occupied assets into play―redevelopment potential

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Quick insights into the

Houston • Energy leasing activity across all sectors but focused on certain submarkets • Southeast and downstream dominant but tight vacancy limiting options • Construction and land price increasing • Pockets of weakness in specialized manufacturing • Jump in rig count increasing oilfield services demand Pittsburgh • Metallurgical coal gaining momentum for steel • Rig count up, new pipeline construction

industrial

• Ethane storage investments up with Shell under way, hub could be coming • Tight vacancy limiting options • Development limited by topography of land Calgary • Logistics and distribution growth helping to stabilize market • Spec development ramping up as economic conditions improve • Oil and gas vacancy declining • Not a lot of large energy users in the market, more small- to midsized

11

market

Edmonton • Broad energy growth improving leasing activity for energy sector • Large energy users still hesitant, wait-and-see approach • Political and price risk concerning, pipeline disputes • Energy-centric submarket still hurting, minimal investments • Downward pressure on lease rates

0.0

635 k.s.f.

Energy occupancy forecast 5 3

4 2

3

2

1 Millions of s.f.

0

4.5 m.s.f.

3.0 m.s.f.

2

1

1

0

15% 15%

10% 10% 10% 10%

5% 5% 5% 5%

0% 0% 0% 0%

$40 $40 $40 $40

$35 $35 $35 $35

$30 $30 $30 $30

$25 $25 $25 $25

$20 $20 $20 $20

$15 $15 $15 $15

15

10

5

0

1.7 m.s.f.

2017

15% 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Millions of s.f.

Office

Net absorption

Houston

Pittsburgh

0

1

Upcoming completions (2018–2020)

918 k.s.f.

Q1 18

15%

2016

20%

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

-3

2015

-2

Millions of s.f.

-1

2014

25%

20%

Millions of s.f.

25%

20%

Q1 18

25%

20%

2017

25%

2016

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

-1

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

1

2015

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

0

2014

Q1 18

2017

2016

2015

2014

Millions of s.f.

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Millions of s.f.

2017

Fort Worth

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

1.5 Q1 18

-0.5

2016

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Dallas

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

0.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Millions of s.f.

0

2015

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

0.5

2014

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Denver CBD

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

1.0

Millions of s.f.

Q1 18

2017

2016

2015

2014

Millions of s.f.

1

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Millions of s.f.

Indicators 12

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

0

-1

Total vacancy

25%

20%

15%

10% 5%

0%

Average asking rents ($ US)

$40

$35

$30

$25

$20

$15

Sublease availability

2

1

1

0

429 k.s.f.

0 0

13.3 m.s.f.

1.3 m.s.f.

Manufacturing occupancy forecast

$20 $8 $8 $8

$6 $6 $6 $6

$4 $4 $4 $4

0

3.9 m.s.f.

1.0

0.5

0.0

10%

5% 5% 5% 5%

0% 0% 0% 0%

2.0

Upcoming completions (2018–2020)

3.0 m.s.f.

Q1 18

10%

2017

10%

2016

10%

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

15%

2015

2014

Q1 18

2017

2016

2015

15%

Q1 18

0 1.5

Millions of s.f.

$35 $8

2014

15%

2017

0

Millions of s.f.

Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

15%

2016

1 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Millions of s.f.

Millions of s.f.

Millions of s.f.

Millions of s.f.

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3

2015

2 0

Calgary

2014

3

Q1 18

3 0

2017

1

4

2016

1

Pittsburgh

2015

2 4 3 2 1 0 -1

2014

5 2017

$15 2016

$25

2015

$30 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

2014

$40

Millions of s.f.

0%

Q1 18

5%

2017

10%

2016

15%

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

20%

2015

25%

2014

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5

Houston

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

4

Millions of s.f.

Q1 18

2017

2016

2015

2014

Millions of s.f.

Office

Calgary CBD

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18

Millions of s.f.

Indicators Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

13

Industrial

Edmonton

Net absorption

3

2

1

0

-1

Total vacancy

Average asking rents ($ US)

Sublease availability

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

14

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Local markets

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

15

Dallas

Office

Energy tenants stable and able to look to growth opportunities Market themes 1. Dallas’ energy sector is diverse, ranging from national and regional headquarters for Exxon, Pioneer, and ConocoPhillips to companies serving the energy industry like Flowserve, Fluor, and Holly Frontier, to many smaller players and start-ups.

2. After pressure to be profitable, the shake-out is complete. Stability has arrived for companies that remain, so their office needs should pick-up to accommodate growth as leases roll, although efficiency and cost-control will probably follow 3. Stability has brought higher investment activity, for which Dallas is a “global” equity hub. As part of their newest funds, NGP and Pearl recently announced a $100million investment in Mettle Midstream, a new Dallas spin-off, and Riverstone and Goldman made a $1.6-billion investment to buy Lucid Energy’s Permian Basin unit.

4. Pioneer Resources broke ground on its new one-million-square-foot headquarters in Las Colinas. This growth/expansion will ultimately result in 650,000 square feet coming back on the market once they vacate Williams Square.

Outlook Challenges • Although energy tenants have rightsized and see growth opportunities, they will likely remain conservative on expansion as leases roll.

• Leasing to start-ups, spin-offs, and recently recapitalized companies carries higher risk, despite new capital investments.

• Equity investments need to pay off as companies position for acquisition.

Opportunities • Equity investment funds will continue to seed new companies locally, which may spur demand for office space.

• Companies that survived the downturn are thinking about growth.

• Stability now positions energy tenants to negotiate longer-term lease deals, even though space requirements may be reduced.

Supply Total energy occupancy: 5.2 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 180.2 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 17.3% Under construction: 4.5 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 4.0% (DFW) Average energy lease size: 30,000 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 225,000 s.f.

Total net absorption*: 1.3 m.s.f.

Sublease Q1 sublease space: 3.2 m.s.f.

10-year sublease average: 5.1 m.s.f.

Average remaining term: 34.8 months Sublease from energy: 2.0% *previous 12 months

Leverage Landlord

Landlord

Neutral

Tenant

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands)

35.0

Mining & Logging Professional & Scientific Services

Other Services Information & Finance

EnLink One Arts Plaza CBD 156,000 s.f.

New

Rover Petroleum Dominion Plaza Far North Dallas 20,000 s.f.

New

Eagle Materials Terraces at Douglas Preston Center 40,000 s.f.

New

Energy employment growth

15.0

3.4% year-over-year 13.1% since 2014

-5.0 2014 16

2015

2016

2017

2018

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Fort Worth

Office

Tenant right-sizing continues, but expansion and growth still exist Market themes 1. While important to Fort Worth, energy is no longer the dominant driver it had been.

Supply Total energy occupancy: 1.0 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 42.0 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 16.4% Under construction: 3.0 m.s.f.

Demand

2. Although the sector is more stable, energy company right-sizing continues. As tenants renew, they are becoming more efficient and relinquishing excess space from earlier commitments. FTS recently renewed at 777 Main, but gave up over two floors, or roughly half their space. Likewise, Jetta will be moving this summer to the new trophy Frost Bank Tower, 280,000 square feet, taking 46,000 square feet.

Energy tenants in market: 4.0% (DFW) Average energy lease size: 19,000 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 185,000 s.f.

Total net absorption*: 365,000 s.f.

3. Energy-tenant demand is taking place selectively as start-ups and spin-offs find equity. Companies like Morningstar, a venture by XTO’s former CEO, are expanding, and Fort Worth-based TPGE, led by Occidental's former chair, is creating a new public company, Magnolia Oil & Gas.

Sublease

4. XTO will begin moving 1,200 employees to Houston this summer, with 400 to follow in 2020. While the loss of a major employer is a blow, the shift is not disrupting the office market. XTO’s space can be repurposed into a variety of uses, with four major assets sold this year.

Outlook Challenges • Right-sizing continues, keeping vacancy up in the CBD. • XTO’s consolidation of 300+ employees takes time to come to fruition given the market’s scale, which makes the downtown submarket seem like it has stalled.

Opportunities • Equity investment continues fueling growth in number of start-up and spinoff companies.

• XTO’s departure seeds the founding of new companies by senior executives.

• Redevelopment of XTO assets enhances downtown, helping generate new office demand.

Q1 sublease space: 600,000 s.f.

10-year sublease average: 645,000 s.f.

Average remaining term: 27.7 months Sublease from energy: 16.0% *previous 12 months

Leverage Tenant

Tenant

Neutral

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands)

35.0

Mining & Logging Professional & Scientific Services

Other Services Information & Finance

Jetta Frost Tower CBD 46,000 s.f.

New

FTS 777 Main St CBD 97,000 s.f.

Renewal

Lonestar 111 Boland St W–SW Fort Worth 32,400 s.f.

New

Energy employment growth

15.0

3.4% year-over-year 13.1% since 2014

-5.0 2014 17

2015

2016

2017

2018

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Houston

Office

Market eagerly awaits return of energy-sector occupancy growth

Supply

Market themes 1. Although energy-related tenants have accounted for a significant portion of Houston’s leasing activity over the past twelve months, the majority of this deal volume has brought with it very little in terms of occupancy growth, and in many cases, has actually resulted in negative net absorption for the market.

2. Concession packages have begun to plateau as more tenants engage the market to take advantage of favorable lease terms. However, even with the recent leveling off, energy and non-energy tenants alike are still benefitting from generous landlord concessions. Tenant improvement allowances north of $50.00 per square foot, and free rent ranging from 12 to 15 months on a 10-year deal is not uncommon.

3. Since the end of 2014, which roughly coincides with the start of the downturn in oil prices, the Houston office market has experienced weakening fundamentals across the board. Fortunately, it appears that the worst is behind us, both in the energy industry and the local Houston market. Moving forward, expect rising oil prices and a growing rig count to help prop up real estate demand in Houston.

Outlook Challenges • Limited occupancy growth from energy-related tenants continues to drag down the market as landlords struggle to backfill large blocks of space.

• Despite stabilizing oil prices, Houston energy companies may lose out on talent attracted to less volatile industries.

Opportunities • Elevated vacancy levels in energyheavy submarkets like Katy Freeway West and Westchase, afford energy tenants with ample leverage and numerous options for their space.

• Over 9.5 million square feet of sublease space is still available, with an average discount to direct asking rents of 33.3 percent.

Total energy occupancy: 60.1 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 209.9 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 20.5% Under construction: 1.7 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 33.3% Average energy lease size: 133,963 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 2.0 m.s.f.

Total net absorption*: -3.3 m.s.f.

Sublease Q1 sublease space: 9.5 m.s.f.

10-year sublease average: 5.6 m.s.f.

Average remaining term: 38.0 months Sublease from energy: 76.0% *previous 12 months

Leverage Tenant

Tenant

Neutral

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) Mining & Logging Professional & Scientific Services 25.0

Other Services Information & Finance

NRG One Shell Plaza CBD 431,307 s.f.

Sublease

15.0 5.0

Apache Post Oak Central Galleria 524,000 s.f.

Extension

Williams Co. Williams Tower Galleria 335,162 s.f.

Renewal

Energy employment growth

2.7% year-over-year

-5.0

0.9% since 2014

-15.0 -25.0 2014 18

2015

2016

2017

2018 Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Houston

Industrial

Downstream remains driving force in Southeast submarket success Market themes 1. Similar to the metro as a whole, leasing activity from energy tenants has been focused in Houston’s three largest submarkets. The North and Northwest have landed deals across the energy spectrum, including upstream, midstream, and oilfield services, while the Southeast is dominated by downstream tenant activity.

2. The Southeast submarket alone contains 43% of the construction pipeline, as its strategic location along the ship channel allows it to capitalize on the ongoing petrochemical boom. Two of the three largest energy deals of the last year are build-to-suit projects for Kuraray America, a specialty resin manufacturer, and Vinmar International, a petrochemical distributor.

3. Average shell construction costs have risen $5.00 per square foot in recent months and now range from $65.00 to $70.00 per square foot. This is due to a surge in demand for building materials following Hurricane Harvey, which is also impacting how tenant improvement dollars are spent for energy-tenant space build-outs.

Supply Total manufacturing occupancy: 82.3 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 430.1 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 4.5% Under construction: 6.7 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 4.0% Average energy lease size: 140,949 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 2.7 m.s.f.

Total net absorption*: 5.8 m.s.f.

Economy Q1 sublease space: 2.7 m.s.f.

10-year sublease average: 2.1 m.s.f.

Q1 asking rent: $6.10 p.s.f. NNN Purchasing Managers Index: 56.5 *previous 12 months

Leverage

Outlook Challenges Opportunities • As large-scale offshore drilling has yet • Exports of all stages of production to resume, pockets of weakness remain output from shale oil to resins are in specialized manufacturing, namely rising, and Port-area real estate is freestanding, crane-served product. poised to reap the benefits.

• Vacancy has been sub-5% for three • With construction ramping up, and 69% consecutive quarters, limiting existing of the pipeline speculative, energy options for energy tenants in the companies may see increased options market. for first-generation space as the year progresses.

Landlord

Landlord

Neutral

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) Mining & Logging Trade,Transportation & Utilities

40.0

Kuraray America Bayport Logistics Park Bldgs 2 & 3 Southeast 561,955 s.f.

New

Other Services Manufacturing

20.0 0.0

Vinmar Intl Cedar Port Industrial Park Southeast 500,006 s.f.

New

MRC Global Port Crossing Commerce Ctr Southeast 415,272 s.f.

New

Energy employment growth

1.9% year-over-year

-20.0

-1.6% since 2014

-40.0 -60.0 2014 19

2015

2016

2017

2018 Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Pittsburgh

Office

Energy tenant demand has waned, but it is not eliminated Market themes 1. After acquiring Rice Energy in the fourth quarter of 2017, EQT has been reorganizing and announced the creation of a separate, publicly traded pipeline business.

However, EQT’s leasing activity over the past twelve months came from backfilling their own space that was previously being marketed for sublease.

2. The Southpointe submarket is home to many of the region’s energy companies and was impacted the most by the protracted downturn in the sector. However, in 2017, leasing activity from a diverse set of tenants totaled over 233,000 square feet in Southpointe, resulting in total net absorption of 64,151 square feet.

Supply Total energy occupancy: 2.7 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 52.1 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 14.9% Under construction: 0.9 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 1.8% Average energy lease size: 68,000 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 1.0 m.s.f.

Total net absorption*: -21,941 s.f.

Sublease

3. In the fourth quarter of 2017, Westinghouse made 315,000 square feet of their headquarters available for sublease at 1000 Westinghouse Drive in Cranberry Township. Westinghouse is one of several corporations in the market to sublease large blocks of space, resulting in an increase of total vacancy to 17.6 percent.

Q1 sublease space: 1.4 m.s.f.

10-year sublease average: 688,000 s.f.

Average remaining term: 44.8 months Sublease from energy: 36.9%

Outlook

Leverage

*previous 12 months

Challenges • High vacancy rates persist as corporations reduce footprints to realize efficiencies.

• Leasing activity in suburban submarkets has been limited.

• Low oil pricing and stagnate demand for coal is causing company consolidations.

Opportunities • Over 700,000 square feet of space is still available in the Southpointe submarket.

• Landlords are eager to retain highquality tenants in suburban submarkets.

• Class A asking rates in Southpointe submarket have declined in Q1 2018 to $23.36 per square foot, gross.

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands)

6.0

Mining & Logging

Other Services

Professional & Scientific Services

Information & Finance

Westinghouse 1000 Westinghouse Dr N I-79/Cranberry 842,072 s.f.

Renewal

4.0 2.0

Dollar Energy The Highline Fringe 25,000 s.f.

New

Halliburton 121 Champion Southpointe 21,125 s.f.

Renewal

Energy employment growth

0.4% year-over-year

0.0 -2.0

2.9% since 2014

-4.0 2014 20

2015

2016

2017

2018 Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Pittsburgh

Industrial

Natural gas production is up, while coal market pivots to met coal Market themes 1. Metallurgical coal, used for steel manufacturing, gains momentum in the region as natural gas production increases. Total rig count for Pennsylvania at the end of April was 39, up from 34 one year ago. Merrion Oil and Gas and CNX have both announced in the first quarter 2018 that they will increase drilling, while EQT gears up to begin construction of the long anticipated Mountain Valley Pipeline.

2. Ethane storage in the Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio tristate region begins to take shape as the Shell petrochemical facility’s construction is underway.

Mountaineer NGL Storage has invested $20 million in a test well in Monroe County, Ohio, but that is only a fraction of the potential $2 to $10 billion estimate for a full storage hub in the region. An ethane storage hub could generate up to 100,000 jobs between the three states.

3. A synergy is forming between the energy and technology sectors in Pittsburgh.

Duquesne Light and Uber have teamed up to raise awareness of electric vehicles.

Supply Total manufacturing occupancy: 51.4 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 139.0 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 8.9% Under construction: 1.3 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 2.9% Average energy lease size: 22,100 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 0.2 m.s.f.

Total net absorption*: -0.5 m.s.f.

Economy Q1 sublease space: 383,465 s.f.

10-year sublease average: 0.2 m.s.f.

Q1 asking rent: $5.84 p.s.f. NNN Purchasing Managers Index: 57.3 *previous 12 months

Leverage Outlook Challenges Opportunities • There are limited availabilities in both • 1.3 million square feet is currently under the Class A warehouse and construction and is 39.3 percent manufacturing space as total vacancy preleased, demonstrating that the remains sub-9%. market continues to garner steady • Currently at $5.84 per square foot NNN, demand. asking rates continue to increase year- • As inventory is absorbed by Shell to over-year. support the petrochemical facility, new • The topography of the market limits the development will provide modern amount of developable land for energy opportunities for tenants in the market. users.

Landlord

Landlord

Landlord

Landlord

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) Mining & Logging Trade,Transportation & Utilities

4.0

Deepwell Grandview Blvd Butler County 44,694 s.f.

New

Other Services Manufacturing

2.0

ComTech 30-50 Curry Ave Washington 42,750 s.f.

New

0.0

Wellington Energy 980 Highland Ave Westmoreland 14,000 s.f.

New

Energy employment growth

-2.0

0.2% year-over-year

-4.0

-1.6% since 2014

-6.0 -8.0 2014 21

2015

2016

2017

2018 Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Denver

Office

Space backfilling thanks to rebounding oil prices and new firms Market themes 1. Energy firms are seeking to right-size space via restructure and/or renewal. Some larger companies have reduced footprints up to 40 percent since the downturn began. Available sublease space through March measured 2.3 percent, falling 220 basis points from a 10-year high recorded in 2016. Re-absorption has accelerated thanks to tenant-favorable sublease rents; over 50 percent of energy sublease space has been leased.

2. Rebounding oil pricing is leading energy firms to plant flags here, even if they don’t have assets in the Rockies. Many are backfilling sublease space from energy companies who downsized during the oil price downturn.

3. Legislative initiatives to limit hydraulic fracturing remain top-of-mind for both proponents and opponents, creating significant risk and uncertainty for the sector’s future. Whiting Petroleum recently announced the company’s intention to pull out of the Rockies and focus on the Bakken due to regulatory constraints in Colorado. Were they to exit Denver, Whiting’s 240,000-square-foot headquarters would significantly impact vacancy once it hit the market.

Outlook Challenges • Will they come, stay, or go? Battle over regulation and ensuing uncertainties gives pause to all users in the sector.

• Sustained population growth and expanding residential communities make the delicate balance of developing field assets more complex.

Opportunities • Metro remains a must-consider talent magnet for most traditional energy.

• Thanks to industry diversification, the economy has weathered the downturn far better than less diversified energy markets.

• Energy-related private equities (near $3 billion) are now at their highest point since the slump commenced.

Report and statistics based on Denver’s CBD submarket

Supply Total energy occupancy: 8.0 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 29.7 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 14.8% Under construction: 0.6 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 17.0% Average energy lease size: 14,030 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 0.5 m.s.f.

Total net absorption*: 0.6 m.s.f.

Sublease Q1 sublease space: 0.7 m.s.f.

10-year sublease average: 0.8 m.s.f.

Average remaining term: 24.9 months Sublease from energy: 57.2% *previous 12 months

Leverage Neutral

Tenant

Tenant

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) 20.0

Mining & Logging

Other Services

Professional & Scientific Services

Information & Finance

Noble Energy 1625 Broadway Midtown CBD 123,743 s.f.

Renewal

10.0

Extraction O&G Republic Plaza Midtown CBD 25,047 s.f.

Expansion

Centennial Resources 1001 17th Street West CBD 49,830 s.f.

Sublease

Energy employment growth

2.9% year-over-year

0.0

12.0% since 2014

-10.0 2014 22

2015

2016

2017

2018 Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Edmonton

Industrial

Economic recovery improves activity for industrial space

Supply

Market themes 1. The recent economic growth in Alberta has translated to greater leasing demand throughout the Greater Edmonton Area (GEA). The growth was driven by a rebound in oil prices which led to an increase in drilling and rigging activity, which has benefitted support sectors in the economy, including manufacturing and the transportation and warehousing sectors.

2. Although leasing activity has risen throughout the GEA, larger energy tenants continue to remain wary in committing to significant spaces due to the uncertainty in the future outlook of the industry. This reflects the current political and price risk in the sector, resulting from oil price volatility and the ongoing pipeline disputes in Canada.

3. Investments in the Nisku/Leduc submarket have continued to remain minimal as the highly energy concentrated submarket experienced historical lows in activity following the oil crisis.

Total manufacturing occupancy: 96.1 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 146.8 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 5.7% Under construction: 2.1 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 20.0% Average energy lease size: 30,000 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 800,000 s.f.

Total net absorption*: 289,861 s.f.

Economy Q1 sublease space: 1.4 m.s.f.

10-year sublease average: 805,881 s.f.

Q1 asking rent: $9.86 p.s.f. net (CAD) Purchasing Managers Index: 55.7 *previous 12 months

Leverage Outlook Challenges Opportunities • The high concentration of energy• Downward pressure on lease rates related tenants creates unwanted creates a favorable environment for exposure. tenants looking for space.

• Uncertainty in the sector has generated • Land and buildings have retained their wariness from investors and larger value, reducing risk for developers and tenants alike. building owners.

• A significant quantity of product still remains on the market.

Tenant

Tenant

Neutral

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) Mining & Logging Transportation & Utilities

25.0

Other Services Manufacturing

Pure HM QEMT I Nisku/Leduc 30,888 s.f.

New

15.0 5.0

Alliance Supply 8115 McIntyre Southside 16,000 s.f.

Sublease

Natpro 10685 176th St Northwest 19,840 s.f.

Renewal

Energy employment growth

12.8% year-over-year

-5.0

-3.6% since 2014

-15.0 -25.0 23

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Calgary

Office

Energy market remains turbulent as tenants assess space needs Market themes 1. Alberta’s energy market remains in flux as uncertainty towards the future of Keystone XL and Trans Mountain pipelines remains, lending hesitation to business decisions within the Calgary energy sector. Potential construction and completion of these projects will have a large impact on the space needs of TransCanada, owner of Keystone XL, as well as other energy producers and oil services firms in the city.

2. Large sublease vacancy from existing oil and gas related firms remains, offering half of the 3.1 million square feet sublease space in the downtown core. Space options are affordable and abundant for companies trying to relocate downtown from suburban markets or to establish a new presence in the Central Business District.

3. Economic recovery is occurring, but growth isn’t significant enough to put a dent in available Calgary office space. 4,000 oil and gas jobs were created in the first quarter of 2018, year-over-year, and Class A leasing activity is increasing. Companies are hiring as well as taking advantage of quality headlease and sublease space at deep discounts from oil price peaks in 2014.

Outlook Challenges • Legal and regulatory action against the Keystone XL and Trans Mountain pipelines offers uncertainty to the Calgary energy market.

• Over 10.8 million square feet of downtown office space is still vacant.

• Half of downtown sublease space is from energy tenants.

Opportunities • Options are plenty for suburban tenants to develop a downtown presence due to attractive rates and space availability.

• Class A leasing activity is increasing as companies take advantage of quality sublease and headlease space.

• Growth is occurring, with 4,000 oil and gas related jobs created in Calgary through the first quarter of 2018.

Report and statistics based on Calgary’s CBD submarket

Supply Total energy occupancy: 17.8 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 44.1 m.s.f.

Q1 direct vacancy: 17.4% Under construction: 428,599 s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 48.5% Average energy lease size: 39,559 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 1.2 m.s.f.

Total net absorption*: -1.5 m.s.f.

Sublease Q1 sublease space: 3.1 m.s.f 10-year sublease average: 1.9 m.s.f Average remaining term: 12 months Sublease from energy: 50.0% *previous 12 months

Leverage Tenant

Tenant

Tenant

Neutral

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) Mining & Logging Professional & Scientific Services

20.0

Other Services Information & Finance

Inter Pipeline Calgary City Centre CBD 55,000 s.f.

Expansion

10.0 0.0

CGG Veritas Gulf Canada Square CBD 48,000 s.f.

Sublease

Perpetual Energy Fifth and Fifth CBD 60,000 s.f.

Renewal

Energy employment growth

-7.4% year-over-year

-10.0

-6.2% since 2014

-20.0 -30.0 2014 24

2015

2016

2017

2018 Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Calgary

Industrial

Improvement in Alberta’s economy leads to active industrial market Market themes 1. Calgary is a key hub for goods movement on the west coast, and increased activity from logistics and distribution users has been a stabilizing factor through the energy downturn. This activity is evident in both the total vacancy rate decreasing 180 basis points and net absorption totaling over 2.3 million square feet over the past 12 months.

2. The new development pipeline has been low in recent years due to a slump in economic conditions, but as the market improves, developers are responding by building speculative mid- and large-bay projects.

3. A considerable reduction in the vacancy rate of manufacturing and oil and gas service buildings tells us that tenants are returning to the market in a response to improvements in the economy.

Outlook Challenges • Although there is a large amount of bigbox multi-tenant deliveries coming to the market, the amount of users actively seeking >50,000 square feet is limited.

• Land for owner-users in the Southeast quadrant will be limited due to a large number of recent land sales, which limits growth and creates inflation.

Opportunities • The lag time between construction and delivery of new projects will encourage further absorption into existing space, while also creating opportunities for larger tenants.

• Neutral conditions for rental rates will remain as the market continues to improve.

• Increased development of small- to mid-size industrial condo bays will give users looking to own and occupy a small footprint more options.

Supply Total manufacturing occupancy: 27.7 m.s.f.

Total market inventory: 155.0 m.s.f Q1 direct vacancy: 5.5% Under construction: 1.8 m.s.f.

Demand Energy tenants in market: 32.0% Average energy lease size: 20,000 s.f.

Energy tenant leasing*: 560,749 s.f.

Total net absorption*: 2.3 m.s.f.

Economy Q1 sublease space: 1.5 m.s.f.

Sublease average: 1.7 m.s.f.

Q1 asking rent: $9.32 p.s.f. net (CAD) Purchasing Managers Index: 55.7 *previous 12 months

Leverage Neutral

Landlord

Landlord

Landlord

2018

2019

2020

2021

Significant energy transactions

Energy employment

(12-month net change, employment in thousands) Mining & Logging Transportation & Utilities

25.0

Inova Geophysical Stoney Industrial Centre 76,444 s.f.

New

Other Services Manufacturing

5.0

Thermon 1802 Centre Avenue NE 50,432 s.f.

New

Schlumberger 3220 – 118th Avenue SE 71,182 s.f.

New

Energy employment growth

-7.4% year-over-year

-15.0

-8.0% since 2014

-35.0 2014 25

2015

2016

2017

2018

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

26

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Want more?

Energy Research:

Eli Gilbert Director, Energy Research +1 713 425 5903 eli.gilbert@am.jll.com

Rachel Alexander Manager, Energy Research +1 713 888 4044 rachel.alexander@am.jll.com

Energy Outlook | North America | 2018

Houston

Dallas & Fort Worth

Denver

Roman Rodriguez +1 713 425 5886 roman.rodriguez@am.jll.com

Steven McCord +1 312 228 2744 steven.mccord@am.jll.com

Thomas Jaroszewski +1 303 260 6523 tj.jaroszewski@am.jll.com

Pittsburgh

Calgary & Edmonton

Tobiah Bilski +1 412 208 1426 tobiah.bilski@am.jll.com

Thomas Forr +1 416 304 6047 thomas.forr@am.jll.com

27

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