Issuu

Forecasts of the Independent Variables with WTI Crude Independent Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Table Listing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) . . . 17 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 36

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 43 43 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 53 54

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

54 55 55 56 56 57 57 58 58 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 70 70 71 71

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline . . 92 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

. 137

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . 152 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . 172 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products . . . . . . . . . . . 182 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol . . 212 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . 217 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

232

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol . . 227 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . 242 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components . 267 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . 272 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components . 277 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . 297 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . 302 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur . 307 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur . . 312 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320

337

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) . . . . . . . . . . 327 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . 352 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol . . 357 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . 362 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol . . 367 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 . 372 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . 377 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . 382 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB . 387 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . 437 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur . . 447 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale . . . 462 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471

472

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 485 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 485 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . 487 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol . . 492 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . 497 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol . . 502 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 . 507 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . 512 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 512 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . 517 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 520 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 520 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

522

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 530 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 530 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 542 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 542 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 546 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 546 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 549 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 549 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 558 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 558 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 561 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 561 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 564 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 564 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 570 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 570

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . 572 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 574 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 574 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 575 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 575 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur . . 582 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 582 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale . . . 597 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 598 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 598 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 601 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 601 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 Spot Crude Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 608 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 608 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 610 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 610 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611

. 1

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

. 23

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

. 45

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)

. 67

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels)

. 89

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol (Thousand Barrels)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

100 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) 101 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 (Thousand Barrels) 102 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels) 103 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 104 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB (Thousand Barrels) 105 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 106 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 107 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 108 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 109 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 110 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

. 111 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) 112 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel (Thousand Barrels) 113 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels) 114 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels) 115 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels) 116 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels) 117 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels) 118 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal (Thousand Barrels) 119 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale (Thousand Barrels) 120 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene (Thousand Barrels) 121 Spot Crude Price 122 Spot Brent Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 1

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries 2027 Forecast

10000

$130

$120

$110

$100 8000 $90

$80

$70 6000 $60

$50

$40 4000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 1

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 4,000

6,000

8,000

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

10,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

10,000

Crude

Independent Variable 1

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

10,000

Crude

Independent Variable 1

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 1

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 2

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

10000

$130 $120

9000 $110 $100 8000 $90 7000

$80 $70

6000 $60 $50 5000 $40 4000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 2

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Crude

Independent Variable 2 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Crude

Independent Variable 2 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 2 Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 3

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) 2027 Forecast $130

10000

$120

$110

$100

$90 9800 $80

$70

$60

$50

9600

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 3

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 9,600

9,800

10,000

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

10,200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 9,600

9,800

10,000

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

Crude

Independent Variable 3

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 9,600

9,800

10,000

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

Crude

Independent Variable 3

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 3 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 4

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 4

$100

$90

$80 3

$70

$60

$50 2 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 4

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 4

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 4

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 4 Price

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 5

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 4

$100

$90

$80 3

$70

$60

$50 2

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 5

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 5

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 5

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 5

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 6

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 4

$100

$90

$80 3 $70

$60

$50 2 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 6

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 6

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 6

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 6

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 7

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50 2 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 7

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 7

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 7

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 7

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 8

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50 2 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 8

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 8

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 8

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 8

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 9

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 9

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 9

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 9

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 9

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 10

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 3 $60

$50

$40 2 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 10

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 10

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 10

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 10 Price

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 11

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100 4 $90

$80

$70 3 $60

$50

$40 2 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 11

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 11

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 11

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 11

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 12

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 12

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 12

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 13

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100 4

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

2 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 13

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 2

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 13

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 13

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 13 Price

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 14

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

2 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 14

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 2

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 14

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 14

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 14

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 15

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100 4

$90

$80

$70 3

$60

$50

$40

2 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 15

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 2

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 15

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 15

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 15

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 16

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120 5 $110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

2 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 16

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

4 Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 16

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

4 Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 16

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 16

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 17

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices 2027 Forecast $130

$120 5 $110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

2 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 17

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 17

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 2

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

Crude

Independent Variable 17

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 17 WTI Price

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 18

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast

2750

$130

$120

2500

$110

$100

2250

$90

$80

2000

$70

$60

1750

$50

$40

1500 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 18

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2,750

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2,750

Crude

Independent Variable 18

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2,750

Crude

Independent Variable 18

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 18 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 19

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

600

$130 $120 $110

500 $100 $90 400

$80 $70 $60

300 $50 $40 200 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 19

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Crude

Independent Variable 19

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Crude

Independent Variable 19

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 19 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 20

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

600

$130 $120 $110

500 $100 $90 400

$80 $70 $60

300 $50 $40 200 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 20 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Crude

Independent Variable 20 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Crude

Independent Variable 20 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 20 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 21

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$130 $120

$110 $100

$90 $80

$70 $60

$50 $40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 21 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -2

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 21 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 21 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 21 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 22

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

2250

$130 $120 $110

2000 $100 $90 1750 $80 $70 1500

$60 $50 $40

1250

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 22

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2,250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2,250

Crude

Independent Variable 22

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2,250

Crude

Independent Variable 22

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 22 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 23

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

1100

$130 $120

1000

$110 $100

900

$90 $80

800

$70 $60

700

$50 $40

600 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 23 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 600

700

800

900

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

1,100

Crude

Independent Variable 23 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 600

700

800

900

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

1,100

Crude

Independent Variable 23 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 23 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 24 Lower

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and

Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast 1100

$130 $120

1000

$110 $100

900

$90 $80

800

$70 $60

700

$50 $40

600 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$30 2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 24 Lower Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 600

700

800

900

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

1,100

Crude

Independent Variable 24 Lower Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 600

700

800

900

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

1,100

Crude

Independent Variable 24 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 24 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 25 Ed 55

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than

Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast 2.0

$130 $120 $110

1.5 $100 $90 1.0

$80 $70 $60

0.5 $50 $40 0.0 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$30 2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 25 Ed 55 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -1

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

Crude

Independent Variable 25 Ed 55 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

Crude

Independent Variable 25 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 25 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 26

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

1200

$130 $120 $110

1000

$100 $90 800 $80 $70 600 $60 $50 400

$40 $30

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 26 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 400

600

800

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

1,200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 400

600

800

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

1,200

Crude

Independent Variable 26 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 400

600

800

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

1,200

Crude

Independent Variable 26 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 26 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 27

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2027 Forecast $130

1200

$120

$110

1000

$100

$90

800

$80

$70

600

$60

$50

400

$40

200 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 27

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 200

400

600

800

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1,200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

400

600

800

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1,200

Crude

Independent Variable 27

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

400

600

800

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1,200

Crude

Independent Variable 27

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 27 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 28

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

1200

$130 $120

1000

$110 $100

800

$90 $80

600

$70 $60

400

$50 $40

200 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 28

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 250

500

750

1,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1,250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Crude

Independent Variable 28 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Crude

Independent Variable 28 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 28 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 29

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130

200 $120 $110 150

$100 $90 $80

100

$70 $60 50 $50 $40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 29

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Crude

Independent Variable 29

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Crude

Independent Variable 29 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 29 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 30

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

$120

3000

$110

$100 2500 $90

$80

$70

2000

$60

$50 1500 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 30

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

3,500

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 30

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 30

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 30 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 31

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130

3000 $120 $110 2500

$100 $90 $80

2000

$70 $60 1500 $50 $40 1000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 31

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 31 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 31 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 31 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 32

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

200

$130 $120 $110

150 $100 $90 100

$80 $70 $60

$50 $40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 32 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Crude

Independent Variable 32 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Crude

Independent Variable 32 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 32 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 33

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120

200 $110 $100

150

$90 $80

100

$70 $60

$50 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 33 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 33 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 33 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 33 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 34

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

200

$100

$90

$80 100 $70

$60

$50 0

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 34

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 34

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 34

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 34 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 35

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

2000

$130 $120

1750 $110 $100 1500 $90 1250

$80 $70

1000 $60 $50 750 $40 500 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 35

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

2,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

Crude

Independent Variable 35 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

Crude

Independent Variable 35 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 35 Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 36

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 2027 Forecast $130

4000

$120

$110

$100

3000

$90

$80

$70 2000 $60

$50

$40 1000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 36

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1,000

2,000

3,000

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

4,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,000

2,000

3,000

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

4,000

Crude

Independent Variable 36

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,000

2,000

3,000

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

4,000

Crude

Independent Variable 36

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 36

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 37

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR 2027 Forecast $130

3000

$120

$110 2500 $100

$90 2000 $80

$70 1500 $60

$50

1000

$40

500 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 37

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 1,000

2,000 Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

3,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

3,000

Crude

Independent Variable 37

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

3,000

Crude

Independent Variable 37

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 37

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 38

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products 2027 Forecast $130

1250

$120

$110 1000 $100

$90 750 $80

$70 500

$60

$50 250

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 38

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 250

500

750

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

1,000

1,250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 250

500

750

1,000

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

1,250

Crude

Independent Variable 38

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 250

500

750

1,000

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

1,250

Crude

Independent Variable 38

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 38

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 39

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline 2027 Forecast

300

$130

$120

$110

$100

200

$90

$80

$70 100 $60

$50

$40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 39

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

200

300

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

250

300

Crude

Independent Variable 39

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

250

300

Crude

Independent Variable 39

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 39

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 40

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$110 60 $100

$90 40

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 40

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -25

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 40

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 40

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 40

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 41

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 0

$60

$50

$40 -5 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 41

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 41

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 41

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 41

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 42

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 0

$60

$50

$40 -5 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 42

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 42

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 42

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 42 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 43

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 0

$60

$50

$40 -5 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 43

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 43

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 43

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 43

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 44

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$110 60 $100

$90 40

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 44

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -25

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 44

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 44

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 44

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 45

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 0

$60

$50

$40 -5 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 45

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 45

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 45

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 45 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 46

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 0

$60

$50

$40 -5 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 46

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 46

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 46

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 46 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 47

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70 0

$60

$50

$40 -5 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 47

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 47

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 47 Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 47 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 48

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$110 60 $100

$90 40

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 48

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -25

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 48

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

Crude

Independent Variable 48

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 48

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 49

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast

300

$130

$120

$110

$100

200

$90

$80

$70 100 $60

$50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 49

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

300

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

250

300

Crude

Independent Variable 49

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

250

300

Crude

Independent Variable 49

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 49

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 50

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

100

$130 $120

$110 $100

$90 $80

$70 $60

$50 $40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 50

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -20

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

100

Crude

Independent Variable 50 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

100

Crude

Independent Variable 50 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 50 Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 51

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 4

$100

$90

$80 2 $70

$60

$50 0 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 51

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 51 Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 51 Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 51 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 52

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 4

$100

$90

$80 2 $70

$60

$50 0 $40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 52

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 52 Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 52 Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 52 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 53

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 53

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -10

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Crude

Independent Variable 53

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Crude

Independent Variable 53

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 53 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 54

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$110 60

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60 20 $50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 54

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -20

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Crude

Independent Variable 54

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Crude

Independent Variable 54

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 54 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 55

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

200

$100

$90

$80

$70

100

$60

$50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 55

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

250

Crude

Independent Variable 55

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

250

Crude

Independent Variable 55

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 55 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 56

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol 2027 Forecast

1.0

$130

$120 0.8

$110

$100 0.6

$90

$80 0.4

$70

$60 0.2

$50

$40 0.0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 56

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Crude

Independent Variable 56

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Crude

Independent Variable 56

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 56

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 57

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 60 $100

$90 40

$80

$70

$60 20 $50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 57

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -20

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Crude

Independent Variable 57

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Crude

Independent Variable 57

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 57

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 58

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$110 60

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 58

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -20

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 58

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 58

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 58

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 59

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast $130

40 $120

$110 30

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60 10 $50

$40 0 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 59

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -10

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 59

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 59

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 59 Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 60

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast $130

$120 6 $110

$100

$90 4 $80

$70

$60

$50

$40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 60

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -2

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 60

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 60

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 60 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 61

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110 30 $100

$90 20

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 61

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -10

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 61

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 61

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 61 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 62

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60 10

$50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 62

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -10

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 62

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 62

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 62 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 63

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

$120 300 $110

$100

$90

200

$80

$70

$60

100

$50

$40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 63

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -100

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

300

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

200 Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

300

Crude

Independent Variable 63

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

200 Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

300

Crude

Independent Variable 63

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 63

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 64

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 3 $100

$90 2

$80

$70

$60 1 $50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 64

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -1

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

Crude

Independent Variable 64

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

Crude

Independent Variable 64

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 64

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 65

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) 2027 Forecast $130

1000

$120

$110 800

$100

$90 600

$80

$70

400

$60

$50

$40

200

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 65

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

200

400

600

800

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

1,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

400

600

800

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

1,000

Crude

Independent Variable 65

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 200

400

600

800

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

1,000

Crude

Independent Variable 65

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 65

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 66

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil 2027 Forecast $130

300000

$120

$110

$100

280000

$90

$80

260000

$70

$60

240000

$50

$40 220000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 66

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 200000

220000

240000

260000

280000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

300000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 220000

240000

260000

280000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

300000

Crude

Independent Variable 66

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 220000

240000

260000

280000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

300000

Crude

Independent Variable 66

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 66

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 67

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 67

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 67

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 67 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 67 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 68

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

95000 $120

$110 90000

$100

$90

$80

85000

$70

$60 80000 $50

$40

75000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 68

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

95,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

95,000

Crude

Independent Variable 68

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

95,000

Crude

Independent Variable 68

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 68

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 69

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

12000 $120

$110 10000

$100

$90

$80

8000

$70

$60 6000 $50

$40 4000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 69

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

12,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

12,000

Crude

Independent Variable 69

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

12,000

Crude

Independent Variable 69

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 69

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 70

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast

250

$130

$120

200

$110

$100

150

$90

$80

100

$70

$60

$50

$40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 70

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

150

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

200

250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

250

Crude

Independent Variable 70

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

250

Crude

Independent Variable 70

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 70

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 71

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol 2027 Forecast

250

$130

$120

200

$110

$100

150

$90

$80

100

$70

$60

$50

$40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 71

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Crude

Independent Variable 71

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Crude

Independent Variable 71

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 71 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 72

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

12000 $120

$110 10000

$100

$90

$80

8000

$70

$60 6000 $50

$40 4000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 72

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

12,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

12,000

Crude

Independent Variable 72

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

12,000

Crude

Independent Variable 72

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 72

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 73

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol 2027 Forecast

$130

$120

$110 15 $100

$90 10

$80

$70

$60 5 $50

$40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 73

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -5

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

Crude

Independent Variable 73

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

Crude

Independent Variable 73

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 73 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 74

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

0.00000

$130 $120

-0.00002

$110 $100

-0.00004

$90 $80

-0.00006

$70 $60

-0.00008

$50 $40

-0.00010 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 74

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Crude

Independent Variable 74

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Crude

Independent Variable 74

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 74 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 75

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

12000 $120

$110 10000

$100

$90

$80

8000

$70

$60 6000 $50

$40 4000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 75

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12,000

Crude

Independent Variable 75

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12,000

Crude

Independent Variable 75

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 75 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 76

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast

90000

$130

$120

$110 85000 $100

$90 80000 $80

$70 75000

$60

$50

$40

70000

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 76

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

90,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

90,000

Crude

Independent Variable 76

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

90,000

Crude

Independent Variable 76

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 76 Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 77

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110 12000 $100

$90

$80

$70

10000

$60

$50

$40 8000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 77

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

13,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

13,000

Crude

Independent Variable 77

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

13,000

Crude

Independent Variable 77

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 77 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 78

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

10000

$120

$110 9500

$100

$90

$80

9000

$70

$60

8500

$50

$40 8000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 78 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 78 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 78 Non-Linear Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 78 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 79

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

10000

$120

$110 9500

$100

$90

$80

9000

$70

$60

8500

$50

$40 8000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 79

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 79 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 79 Non-Linear Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 79 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 80

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

42500

$130 $120

40000

$110 $100

37500

$90 $80

35000

$70 $60

32500 $50 $40 30000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 80

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 30,000

32,500

35,000

37,500

40,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42,500

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 30,000

32,500

35,000

37,500

40,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42,500

Crude

Independent Variable 80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 30,000

32,500

35,000

37,500

40,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42,500

Crude

Independent Variable 80 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 80 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 81

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130

38000

$120

$110 37000 $100

$90 36000 $80

$70 35000

$60

$50

$40

34000

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 81

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 81

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 81 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 81 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 82

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120

300 $110 $100 $90 200 $80 $70 $60

100

$50 $40 0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 82

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 -200

-100

100

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

300

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

200

300

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Crude

Independent Variable 82

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

100

200

300

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Crude

Independent Variable 82 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 82 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 83

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

37500

$130 $120

35000

$110 $100

32500

$90 $80

30000

$70 $60

27500

$50 $40

25000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 83

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

35,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37,500

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

35,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37,500

Crude

Independent Variable 83

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

35,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37,500

Crude

Independent Variable 83 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 83 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 84

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol 2027 Forecast $130

6000

$120

$110 5000

$100

$90

$80 4000

$70

$60

$50 3000

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 84

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 3,000

4,000

5,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

6,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 3,000

4,000

5,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

6,000

Crude

Independent Variable 84

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 3,000

4,000

5,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

6,000

Crude

Independent Variable 84

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 84

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 85

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2027 Forecast

18000

$130

$120

$110

16000

$100

$90 14000 $80

$70 12000 $60

$50 10000

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 85

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 10,000

12,000

14,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

16,000

18,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

18,000

Crude

Independent Variable 85

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

18,000

Crude

Independent Variable 85

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 85

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 86

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

60000

$120

$110

$100

$90 50000 $80

$70

$60

40000

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 86

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 30,000

40,000

50,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

60,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 40,000

50,000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

60,000

Crude

Independent Variable 86

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 40,000

50,000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

60,000

Crude

Independent Variable 86

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 86

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 87

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110

50000

$100

$90

$80 40000

$70

$60

$50

$40 30000 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 87

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 30,000

40,000

50,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 30,000

40,000

50,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 87

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 30,000

40,000

50,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 87

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 87 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 88

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130

3000 $120 $110 2500 $100 $90 2000 $80 $70 1500 $60 $50 1000 $40 $30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 88

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

1,000

2,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

3,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 88

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Crude

Independent Variable 88 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 88 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 89

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast

7000

$130

$120

$110 6000 $100

$90

5000

$80

$70

$60 4000 $50

$40

3000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 89

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7,000

Crude

Independent Variable 89

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7,000

Crude

Independent Variable 89

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 89 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 90

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

$120

$110 20000 $100

$90

$80 15000 $70

$60

$50

$40

10000

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 90

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 10,000

15,000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

20,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 10,000

15,000

20,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 90

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 10,000

15,000

20,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

Crude

Independent Variable 90

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 90

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 91

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Spot WTI Crude Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120

60000

$110 $100 $90 $80

40000

$70 $60 $50 $40

20000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 91

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 20,000

40,000

60,000

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Crude

Independent Variable 91

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Non-Linear

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Crude

Independent Variable 91 Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 91 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 92

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Spot WTI Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale 2027 Forecast $130

50000

$120

$110

$100

40000

$90

$80 30000 $70

$60 20000 $50

$40

10000 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 92

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

50,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

Crude

Independent Variable 92

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

Crude

Independent Variable 92

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 92 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 93

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Spot WTI Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene $130

60000

$120

$110

$100

$90 50000 $80

$70

$60

40000

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 93

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

70,000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 40,000

50,000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

60,000

Crude

Independent Variable 93

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 40,000

50,000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

60,000

Crude

Independent Variable 93

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 93

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 94

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 94

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 94

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 94 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 94 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 95

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 95

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 95

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 95

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 95

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 96

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 96

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 96

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 96

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 96

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 97

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 97

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 97

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 97

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 97

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 98

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 98

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 98

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 98

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 98 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 99

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 99

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 99

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 99

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 99

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 100

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 100

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 100

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 100

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 100 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 101

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 101

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 101

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 101

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 101 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 102

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 102

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 102

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 102

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 102 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 103

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 103

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 103

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 103

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 103 Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 104

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 104

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 104

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 104

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 104 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 105

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 105 Scatterplot

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 105 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 105 Non-Linear Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 105 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 106

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 106

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 106 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 106 Non-Linear Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 106 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 107

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 107

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 107

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 107 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 107 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 108

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 108

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 108

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 108 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 108 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 109

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 109

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 109

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 109 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 109 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 110

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 110

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 110

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 110 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 110 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 111

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 111

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 111

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 111

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 111

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 112

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 112

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 112

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 112

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 112

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 113

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 113

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 113

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 113

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 113

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 114

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 114

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 114

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 114

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 114 WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 115

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 115

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 115

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 115 Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 115 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 116

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 116

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 116

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 116

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 116 with Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 117

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 117

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 117

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 117

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 117

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 118

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 118

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 118

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 118 Regression

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 118 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 119

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 119

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 119

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 119

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 119 Crude WTI Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 120

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Spot WTI Crude $130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 120

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 120

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 120

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 120

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 121

Spot Crude Price Spot WTI Crude

Spot Crude Price

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

125

$130

$120

100

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

0 2019

$30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 121

Spot Crude Price Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100

Crude

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 0

75 Spot Crude Price

100

125

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Spot Crude Price Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

75 Spot Crude Price

100

125

Crude

Independent Variable 121

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Spot Crude Price Non-Linear Regression

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$30 0

75 Spot Crude Price

100

125

Crude

Independent Variable 121

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 121

Spot Crude Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

-0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads