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Independents PADD III forecasts version Brent crude 1

Page 1


TimeSeriesPlots

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending

TimeSeriesPlots

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil,

TimeSeriesPlots

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil

TimeSeriesPlots

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

TimeSeriesPlots

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

TimeSeriesPlots

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 1 Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 2 Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 2 Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 3 Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

Forecast 2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

Brent

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 3 Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 4 Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 5 Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 6 Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 7 Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 8 Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 9 Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 10 Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 11 Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 12 Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 13 Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 14 Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 15 Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 16 Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 17 Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 18 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

Brent Crude 2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 18 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 19 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 20 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Spot Brent Crude 2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 20 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 21 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 22 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 22 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 23 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 23 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 24 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 24 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 25 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 25 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 26 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 26 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 27 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

2027 Forecast

2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 27 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 28 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 28 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 29 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 29 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 30 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 31 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Spot Brent Crude 2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 31 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 32 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Spot Brent Crude 2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 32 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 33 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 33 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 34 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 35 Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 35 Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 36 Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 37 Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 38 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 39 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 40 Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 41 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 42 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 43 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 44 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 45 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 46 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 47 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead

Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 48 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 49 Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 50 Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 50 Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 51 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead

Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 52 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead

Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 53 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 54 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 55 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 56 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 57 Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 58 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 59 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 60 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 61 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 62 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 63 Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 64 Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 65 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 65 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Brent Crude 2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 66 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 67 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 68 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 69 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 70 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 71 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 72 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 73 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 74 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 74 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 75 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 76 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

Spot Brent Crude 2027 Forecast

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 76 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 77 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

2027 Forecast

2026 Forecast

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 77 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 78 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Forecast

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 78 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 79 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 79 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 80 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 80 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 81 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 82 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 83 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 83 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 84 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 85 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

Brent Crude 2027 Forecast

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 85 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 86 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 87 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

2026 Forecast Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

2027 Forecast

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 87 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 88 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 88 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 89 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

2027 Forecast 2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 89 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 90 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 91 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 91 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Lag\ Lead

Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 92 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

2027 Forecast

2026 Forecast

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent

Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 92 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable 93 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 93 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable 94 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 94 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 95 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 96 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 97 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 98 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 99 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot

Independent Variable 100 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

Brent Crude

Spot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 100 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 101 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 101 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 102 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Brent Crude

Spot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 103 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 104 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot

Independent Variable 105 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 105 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 106 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 106 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 107 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 108 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 109 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 110 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 111 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 112 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 113 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable 114 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 114 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 115 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 115 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable 116 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 116 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 117 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 118 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 118 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 119 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

Brent Crude

Spot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 119 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Spot Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 120 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Independent Variable 121 Spot Crude Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with Crude WTI Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

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Independents PADD III forecasts version Brent crude 1 by Joel Fingerman - Issuu