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Independents PADD III forecasts version Brent Crude 1

Page 1

Forecasts of the Independent Variables with Brent Crude Independent Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Table Listing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) . . . 17 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 36

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 43 43 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 53 54

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

54 55 55 56 56 57 57 58 58 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 70 70 71 71

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices . . . . . . . Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline . . 92 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

. 137

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . 152 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . 172 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products . . . . . . . . . . . 182 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol . . 212 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . 217 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

232

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol . . 227 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . 242 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components . 267 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . 272 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components . 277 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . 297 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . 302 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur . 307 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur . . 312 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320

337

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326 Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) . . . . . . . . . . 327 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . 352 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol . . 357 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . 362 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol . . 367 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 . 372 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . 377 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . 382 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB . 387 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . 437 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur . . 447 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale . . . 462 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471

472

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 485 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 485 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . 487 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol . . 492 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . 497 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol . . 502 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 . 507 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline . . . . . . . 512 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 512 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . 517 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 520 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 520 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

.

522

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 530 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 530 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 542 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 542 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 546 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 546 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 549 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 549 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 558 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 558 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 561 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 561 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 564 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 564 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 570 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 570

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur . . . . . 572 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 574 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 574 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 575 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 575 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur . . 582 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 582 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale . . . 597 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 598 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 598 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 601 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 601 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 Spot Crude Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 608 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 608 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 610 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 610 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611

. 1

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

2

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

3

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

4

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

6

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

7

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

8

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

9

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

10

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

11

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

12

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

13

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

14

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

15

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

16

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

17

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

18

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

19

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

20

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

21

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

22

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

. 23

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

24

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

25

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

26

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

27

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

28

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

29

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

30

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

31

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

32

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

33

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

34

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

35

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

36

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

37

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

38

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

39

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

41

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

42

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

43

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline

44

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

. 45

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

46

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower

47

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55

48

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

49

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

50

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

51

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

52

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

53

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

54

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

55

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

56

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

57

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

58

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

59

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

61

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

62

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

63

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

64

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

65

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

66

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)

. 67

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)

68

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

69

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

70

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

71

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol (Thousand Barrels)

72

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

73

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)

74

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 (Thousand Barrels)

75

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

76

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

77

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB (Thousand Barrels)

78

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

79

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

80

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

81

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

82

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

83

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

84

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)

85

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel (Thousand Barrels)

86

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels)

87

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels)

88

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels)

. 89

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels)

90

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels)

91

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal (Thousand Barrels)

92

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale (Thousand Barrels)

93

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene (Thousand Barrels)

94

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)

95

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

96

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

97

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

98

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol (Thousand Barrels)

99

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

100 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) 101 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 (Thousand Barrels) 102 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels) 103 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 104 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB (Thousand Barrels) 105 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 106 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 107 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 108 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 109 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels) 110 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components (Thousand Barrels)

. 111 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) 112 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel (Thousand Barrels) 113 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels) 114 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels) 115 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels) 116 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur (Thousand Barrels) 117 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels) 118 Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal (Thousand Barrels) 119 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale (Thousand Barrels) 120 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene (Thousand Barrels) 121 Spot Crude Price 122 Spot Brent Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries 2027 Forecast

10000

$130 $120 $110

8000

$90 $80 $70 $60

6000

$50 $40 $30 $20

4000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

10000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

10000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries

10000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Gross Inputs into Refineries Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120

9000

$110 $100

8000

$90 $80

7000

$70 $60

6000

$50 $40

5000

$30 $20

4000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

10000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day)

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels per Calendar Day) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120

10000

$110 $100 $90 $80 9800 $70 $60 $50 $40 9600

$30 $20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 9600

9800

10000

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

10200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 9600

9800

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

10000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 9600

9800

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent)

10000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

5

$130 $120

$100 4 $90 $80 $70 3

$60 $50 $40 $30

2 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

5

$130 $120

$100 4 $90 $80 $70 $60

3

$50 $40 $30 2 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

5

$130 $120

$100 4 $90 $80 $70 3

$60 $50 $40 $30

2

$20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast All Grades Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

4 $100 $90 $80 $70

3

$60 $50 $40 $30

2

$20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3 Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3 Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

4 $100 $90 $80 $70

3

$60 $50 $40 $30

2

$20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3 Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3 Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

4 $100 $90 $80 $70

3

$60 $50 $40 2

$30 $20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3 Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3 Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast

5

$130 $120

$100 4

$90 $80 $70 $60

3 $50 $40 $30 $20 2 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast Midgrade All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

5

$120

$100 4

$90 $80 $70 $60

3

$50 $40 $30 $20

2 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Midgrade Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130

5

$120

$100 4

$90 $80 $70 $60

3 $50 $40 $30 $20

2

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Midgrade Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

5

$100 $90 4

$80 $70 $60 $50

3 $40 $30 $20 2 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Premium All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

5

$100 $90 4

$80 $70 $60 $50

3 $40 $30 $20 2 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Premium Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

5

$100 $90 4

$80 $70 $60 $50

3 $40 $30 $20 2 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Premium Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120

5 $110

$90 $80

4

$70 $60 $50 3 $40 $30 $20 2 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

4

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4 Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4 Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80

4

$70 $60 $50 3 $40 $30 $20 2 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

5

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1

2

3

4

5

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

6

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 2

3

4

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

2500 $100 $90 2250

$80 $70 $60

2000

$50 $40 1750 $30 $20 1500 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2750

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2750

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2750

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline

2750

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

500

$100 $90 $80

400

$70 $60 $50

300

$40 $30 $20

200 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

600

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

500

$100 $90 $80

400

$70 $60 $50

300

$40 $30 $20

200 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

300

400

500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

600

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

4 $100 $90 3

$80 $70 $60

2

$50 $40 1 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

5

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -2

0

2

4

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

1

2

3

4

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

1

2

3

4

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline

5

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

2000

$100 $90 $80

1750 $70 $60 $50

1500

$40 $30 $20

1250

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1250

1500

1750

2000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

1250

1500

1750

2000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2250

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1250

1500

1750

2000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline

2250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

1000 $100 $90 900

$80 $70 $60

800

$50 $40 700 $30 $20 600 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

1100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 600

700

800

900

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

1100

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 600

700

800

900

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol

1100

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline with Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Lower

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and

Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 1000 $100 $90 900

$80 $70 $60

800

$50 $40 700 $30 $20 600 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$10 2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

1100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 600

700

800

900

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

1100

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 600

700

800

900

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower

1100

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Ed 55 and Lower Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable 55

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed

Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 1.5

$100 $90 $80

1.0

$70 $60 $50

0.5

$40 $30 $20

0.0 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$10 2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

2.0

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

2.0

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable 55 Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

2.0

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable 55 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55

2.0

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed 55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

1200

$130

$110 1000

$100 $90 $80

800 $70 $60 $50

600

$40 $30 400

$20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

$120

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 400

600

800

1000

1200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

1200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline

1200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Other Finished Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

1000 $100 $90 800

$80 $70 $60

600

$50 $40 400 $30 $20 200 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

200

400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1200

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

1200

$130

$110

1000

$100 $90 800 $80 $70 600

$60 $50 $40

400

$30 $20 200 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

$120

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

250

500

750

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1250

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

400

600

800

1000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

1200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Commercial Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

200 $120 $110 $100

150

$90 $80 $70

100

$60 $50 50

$40 $30 $20

0 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -50

0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Military Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130

3000 $110 $100 $90 2500 $80 $70 $60 2000 $50 $40 $30 1500 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

$120

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1500

2000

2500

3000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

3500

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

2500

$90 $80 $70

2000

$60 $50 $40

1500

$30 $20 1000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

3000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

150

$100 $90 $80

100

$70 $60 $50

50 $40 $30 $20

0

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

200

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 200 $110 $100 150

$90 $80 $70

100

$60 $50 50 $40 $30 0

$20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Scatterplot

0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Non-Linear Regression

0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Distillate Fuel Oil Greater than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130

$110 200

$100 $90 $80 $70

100 $60 $50 $40 $30 0 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

$120

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Refiner and Blender Net Production of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120

1750

$110 $100

1500

$90 $80

1250

$70 $60

1000

$50 $40

750

$30 $20

500 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

2000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

2000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Refiner, Blender, and Gas Plant Net Production of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 2027 Forecast $130

4000

$120

$100 3000

$90 $80 $70 $60

2000 $50 $40 $30 $20

1000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

2000

3000

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

4000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

2000

3000

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

4000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

2000

3000

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

4000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR 2027 Forecast $130

3000

$120

$100

2500

$90 $80 2000 $70 $60 1500 $50 $40 1000

$30 $20

500 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

2000

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products 2027 Forecast $130

1250

$120

1000

$100 $90 $80

750 $70 $60 $50

500

$40 $30 250

$20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 250

500

750

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

1000

1250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 250

500

750

1000

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

1250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 250

500

750

1000

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products

1250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Petroleum Products Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline 2027 Forecast

300

$130 $120 $110

200

$90 $80 $70 $60

100

$50 $40 $30 $20

0 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100 Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

200

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

250

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline

250

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$100

60

$90 $80 40

$70 $60 $50

20 $40 $30 $20

0

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -25

0

25

50

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

75

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120

10

$100 $90 5

$80 $70 $60 $50

0

$40 $30 $20 -5 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

5

$80 $70 $60 $50

0

$40 $30 $20 -5 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

10

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120

10

$100 $90 5

$80 $70 $60 $50

0

$40 $30 $20 -5 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$100

60

$90 $80 40

$70 $60 $50

20 $40 $30 $20

0

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -25

0

25

50

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

75

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

5

$80 $70 $60 $50

0

$40 $30 $20 -5 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

10

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$120 10 $110 $100 $90 5

$80 $70 $60 $50

0

$40 $30 $20 -5 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Ed55 and Lower Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$120 10 $110 $100 $90 5

$80 $70 $60 $50

0

$40 $30 $20 -5 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Imports of Motor Gasoline, Finished, Conventional, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120

$100

60

$90 $80 40

$70 $60 $50

20 $40 $30 $20

0

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -25

0

25

50

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

75

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast

300

$130 $120

$100 200

$90 $80 $70 $60

100

$50 $40 $30 $20

0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

250

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components

250

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

100

$130

$110 80 $100 $90 60

$80 $70 $60

40

$50 $40 20 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

$120

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

100

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

80

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

100

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Non-Linear

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

80

Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

100

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Imports from All Countries of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

4 $90 $80 $70 2

$60 $50 $40 $30

0

$20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

6

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

4 $90 $80 $70 2

$60 $50 $40 $30

0

$20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

6

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Imports of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 30 $110 $100 $90 20

$80 $70 $60 $50

10 $40 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -10

0

10

20

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

30

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

60 $90 $80 $70

40

$60 $50 $40

20

$30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -20

0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

80

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 $110 200

$100 $90 $80 $70 $60

100

$50 $40 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

250

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol 2027 Forecast

1.0

$130 $120 $110

0.8

$90 0.6

$80 $70 $60

0.4

$50 $40 0.2 $30 $20 0.0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 0 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0 Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2027 Forecast

80

$130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80

40

$70 $60 $50

20

$40 $30 $20

0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

60

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -20

0

20

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

60

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

60

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

60

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130

80 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 40

$70 $60 $50

20 $40 $30 $20

0

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

60

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -20

0

20

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

60

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

20

40

60

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil

80

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur 2027 Forecast $130

40 $120

$100

30

$90 $80 $70

20

$60 $50 10

$40 $30 $20

0 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -10

0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

40

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

40

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

40

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 6

$110 $100 $90 $80

4

$70 $60 $50 2 $40 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -2

0

2

4

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

6

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

2

4

6

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

0

2

4

6

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

30

$100 $90 $80

20

$70 $60 $50

10 $40 $30 $20

0

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

40

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -10

0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

40

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

40

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur

40

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 to 2000 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

50

$130

$110 40 $100 $90 30

$80 $70 $60

20

$50 $40 10 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

$120

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -10

0

10

20

30

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

50

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

50

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

10

20

30

40

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur

50

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 2000 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130 $120

300 $110

$90 $80

200

$70 $60 $50 100 $40 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -100

0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil

300

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene 2027 Forecast

4

$130 $120

3

$100 $90 $80

2

$70 $60 $50

1

$40 $30 $20

0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -1

0

1

2

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

3

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

1

2

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

3

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

1

2

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene

3

4

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) 2027 Forecast $130

1000

$120

$100 800 $90 $80 600

$70 $60 $50

400 $40 $30 200

$20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

200

400

600

800

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

1000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

400

600

800

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

1000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 200

400

600

800

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol)

1000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Imports of Other Oils (Excluding Fuel Ethanol) Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil 2027 Forecast $130 $120

300000

$100 280000 $90 $80 $70

260000

$60 $50 240000 $40 $30 $20

220000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

200000

220000

240000

260000

280000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

300000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 220000

240000

260000

280000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

300000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 220000

240000

260000

280000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil

300000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

95000 $120 $110

$90 $80 $70

85000

$60 $50 $40

80000

$30 $20 75000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

$100 90000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 75000

80000

85000

90000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

95000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 75000

80000

85000

90000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

95000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 75000

80000

85000

90000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline

95000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

12000

$120

$100 10000 $90 $80 $70

8000

$60 $50 6000

$40 $30 $20

4000 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast

250

$130 $120

200 $100 $90 150

$80 $70 $60

100

$50 $40 50 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

200

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

200 $100 $90 150

$80 $70 $60

100

$50 $40 50 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

50

100

150

200

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol

250

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline 2027 Forecast $130

12000

$120

$100 10000 $90 $80 $70

8000

$60 $50 6000

$40 $30 $20

4000 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

15

$100 $90 $80

10

$70 $60 $50

5

$40 $30 $20

0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

20

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -5

0

5

10

15

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

20

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

5

10

15

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

20

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

0

5

10

15

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol

20

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

-0.00002 $100 $90 -0.00004

$80 $70 $60

-0.00006

$50 $40 -0.00008 $30 $20 -0.00010 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

0.00000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Scatterplot

$130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 0 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

10000 $90 $80 $70

8000

$60 $50 6000

$40 $30 $20

4000 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 4000

6000

8000

10000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline

12000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components 2027 Forecast

90000

$130 $120

85000

$100 $90 $80

80000 $70 $60 $50

75000

$40 $30 $20

70000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 70000

75000

80000

85000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

90000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 70000

75000

80000

85000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

90000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 70000

75000

80000

85000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components

90000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 $110 12000

$100 $90 $80 $70 $60

10000

$50 $40 $30 $20 8000 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

13000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

13000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB

13000

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

9500 $90 $80 $70

9000

$60 $50 8500 $40 $30 $20

8000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components

10000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

9500 $90 $80 $70

9000

$60 $50 8500 $40 $30 $20

8000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components

10000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

40000

$100 $90 37500 $80 $70 35000

$60 $50 $40

32500

$30 $20 30000 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42500

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

32500

35000

37500

40000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42500

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

32500

35000

37500

40000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42500

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

32500

35000

37500

40000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components

42500

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

37000

$100 $90 $80

36000 $70 $60 $50

35000

$40 $30 34000

$20 $10

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

38000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 300

$110 $100 $90 $80

200

$70 $60 $50 100 $40 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 -200

-100

0

100

200

300

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

300

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

100

200

300

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

35000 $100 $90 32500

$80 $70 $60

30000

$50 $40 27500 $30 $20 25000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37500

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 25000

27500

30000

32500

35000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37500

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

25000

27500

30000

32500

35000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37500

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 25000

27500

30000

32500

35000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components

37500

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol 2027 Forecast $130

6000

$120 $110

5000 $90 $80 $70 $60

4000

$50 $40 $30 3000 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 3000

4000

5000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

6000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 3000

4000

5000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

6000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 3000

4000

5000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

6000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 2027 Forecast

18000

$130 $120

16000 $100 $90 $80

14000

$70 $60 12000

$50 $40 $30

10000 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

12000

14000

16000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

18000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

12000

14000

16000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

18000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

12000

14000

16000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel

18000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130 $120

60000

$110

$90 $80

50000

$70 $60 $50 $40 40000 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

$100

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

40000

50000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

60000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 40000

50000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

60000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 40000

50000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil

60000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130

$110 50000 $100 $90 $80 $70 40000

$60 $50 $40 $30 $20

30000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

$120

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

40000

50000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

40000

50000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

40000

50000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

3000 $120 $110 $100

2500

$90 $80 2000 $70 $60 1500

$50 $40 $30

1000 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

1000

2000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

1000

1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

3000

Brent Crude

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 1000

1500

2000

2500

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur

3000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110

6000

$100 $90 $80

5000

$70 $60 $50

4000

$40 $30 $20

3000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 3000

4000

5000

6000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 3000

4000

5000

6000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 3000

4000

5000

6000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur

7000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70

15000

$60 $50 $40 $30 $20

10000

$10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

20000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

15000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

20000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

15000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

20000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

15000 Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil

20000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

$120 $110 60000 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60

40000

$50 $40 $30 $20 20000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

$130

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 20000

40000

60000

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Spot Brent Crude Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast $130 $120 $110 $100

40000

$90 $80 $70

30000 $60 $50 $40

20000

$30 $20 10000 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

50000

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 10000

20000

30000

40000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

50000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Spot Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene $130

60000

$120

$100 $90 $80

50000

$70 $60 $50 $40 40000 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

$110

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 30000

40000

50000

60000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

70000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 40000

50000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

60000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 40000

50000

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene

60000

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks and including Lease Stock excluding SPR of Crude Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Finished Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated Motor Gasoline with Fuel ALcohol Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline with Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Motor Gasoline, Greater than Ed55 Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Other Conventional Motor Gasoline Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Motor Gasoline Blending Components, RBOB Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Alcohol Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Regression

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated RBOB with Ether Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional CBOB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Reformulated GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional GTAB Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Components Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, 0 to 15 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 to 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Brent Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater Than 500 ppm Sulfur Lag\ Lead Correlations with

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Gulf Coast Propane and Propylene Ending Stocks Excluding Propylene at Terminal Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable Crude Price

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane, fractionated and ready for sale Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Spot Brent Crude $130 $120 $110 $100 $90

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

$80

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Scatterplot

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Gulf Coast Ending Stocks of Propane and Propylene Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Spot Crude Price Spot Brent Crude 2026 Forecast

Spot Crude Price 2027 Forecast

125

$130 $120 $110

100 $100

75

$80 $70 $60

50

$50 $40 25 $30 $20 0 2019

$10 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Brent Crude

Spot Crude Price

$90

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Spot Crude Price Scatterplot

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

25

50 Spot Crude Price

75

100

125

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Spot Crude Price Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

25

50 Spot Crude Price

75

100

125

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Spot Crude Price Non-Linear Regression

$130

$130

$120

$120

$110

$110

$100

$100

$90

$90

$80

$80

$70

$70

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 0

25

50 Spot Crude Price

75

100

125

Brent Crude

Brent Crude

Independent Variable

Dependent Variable Spot Crude Price Independent Variable

Spot Crude Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with Brent Crude Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

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Independents PADD III forecasts version Brent Crude 1 by Joel Fingerman - Issuu