Independents PADD II forecasts version 1c

Forecasts of the Independent Variables Independent Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 Table Listing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II ULSD Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II ULSD Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33 34 34 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 43 43 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 50 50

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II Diesel Sales Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II ULSD Sales Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51 51 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 55 56 56 57 57 58 58 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66 67 67 68

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

CBOE VIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

68 69 69 70 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 NYMEX CL Close . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Cushing Crude Spot Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Heat Crack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 RBOB Crack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Midwest Consumer Confidence Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 ATA Truck Tonnage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Vehicle Miles Traveled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Time Series Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Scatterplot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 The SGPlot Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Non-Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Cross Correlation Function (CCF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

.

Price of PADD II ULSD

1

PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks

2

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks

3

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average

4

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks

5

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks

6

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks

7

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks

8

PADD II ULSD Production

9

PADD II ULSD Imports

10

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts

11

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied)

12

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack

13

PADD II Diesel Sales Price

14

PADD II ULSD Sales Price

15

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades

16

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot

17

CBOE VIX

18

NYMEX CL Close

19

NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close

.

20

Cushing Crude Spot Price

21

Heat Crack

22

RBOB Crack

23

Winter

24

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index

25

ATA Truck Tonnage

26

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Notes Obviuously we are not limiited to these variables.

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 1

PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks Midwest ULSD Price

PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00 60,000 $5.50

$5.00 50,000 $4.50

$4.00 40,000 $3.50

$3.00

30,000

$2.50

$2.00

20,000 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 1

PADD II ULSD Price PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 20,000

40,000 PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks

60,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 1

PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20,000

30,000

40,000 PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks

50,000

60,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 1

PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20,000

30,000

40,000 PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks

50,000

60,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 1

PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 2

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50 35,000 $5.00

$4.50

$4.00 30,000

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

25,000

$2.00

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 2

PADD II ULSD Price PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 25,000

30,000 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks

35,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 2

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

25,000

30,000 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks

35,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 2

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

25,000

30,000 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks

35,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 2

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 3

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50 32,000 $5.00

$4.50

30,000

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00 28,000 $2.50

$2.00

26,000 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 3

PADD II ULSD Price PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average

34,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 3

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

26,000

28,000

30,000

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average

32,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 3

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

26,000

28,000

30,000

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average

32,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 3

PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 4

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Midwest ULSD Price

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

55,000

$6.00

$5.50 50,000

$5.00

$4.50 45,000 $4.00

$3.50 40,000 $3.00

$2.50

35,000

$2.00

30,000 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 4

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks

50,000

55,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 4

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks

50,000

55,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 4

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks

50,000

55,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 4

PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 5

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks Midwest ULSD Price

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

4,500

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00 4,000 $4.50

$4.00

$3.50 3,500 $3.00

$2.50

3,000

$2.00

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 5

PADD II ULSD Price PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 3,000

3,500

4,000

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks

4,500

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 5

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

3,000

3,500 PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks

4,000

4,500

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 5

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

3,000

3,500 PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks

4,000

4,500

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 5

PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 6

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50

150,000

$5.00 140,000 $4.50

$4.00

130,000

$3.50 120,000

$3.00

$2.50 110,000 $2.00

100,000 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 6

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 80,000

100000

120000 PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks

140000

160000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 6

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks

150000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 6

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks

150000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 6

PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 7

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Midwest ULSD Price

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50

60,000

$5.00

50,000

$4.50

$4.00

40,000

$3.50

$3.00

30,000

$2.50

$2.00 20,000 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 7

PADD II ULSD Price Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 20,000

40,000 Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks

60,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 7

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks

60,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 7

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks

60,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 7

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 8

PADD II ULSD Production Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Production

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

80

$6.00

$5.50 70 $5.00

$4.50

60

$4.00 50 $3.50

$3.00 40 $2.50

30

$2.00

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 8

PADD II ULSD Price PADD II ULSD Production Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 20

40 PADD II ULSD Production

60

80

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 8

PADD II ULSD Production Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

30

40

50

60

PADD II ULSD Production

70

80

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 8

PADD II ULSD Production Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

30

40

50

60

PADD II ULSD Production

70

80

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 8

PADD II ULSD Production Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 9

PADD II ULSD Imports Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Imports

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00 40,000 $5.50

$5.00

$4.50 35,000 $4.00

$3.50

$3.00 30,000 $2.50

$2.00

25,000 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 9

PADD II ULSD Imports Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 25,000

30,000

35,000 PADD II ULSD Imports

40,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 9

PADD II ULSD Imports Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

25,000

30,000

35,000 PADD II ULSD Imports

40,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 9

PADD II ULSD Imports Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

25,000

30,000

35,000 PADD II ULSD Imports

40,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 9

PADD II ULSD Imports Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 10

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

600

$6.00

$5.50 500 $5.00

$4.50 400 $4.00

$3.50

300

$3.00 200 $2.50

$2.00 100 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 10

PADD II ULSD Price PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 0

200 PADD II ULSD Net Receipts

400

600

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 10

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

100

200

300

400

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts

500

600

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 10

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

100

200

300

400

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts

500

600

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 10

PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 11

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied)

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50

6,000

$5.00

$4.50 4,000 $4.00

$3.50 2,000 $3.00

$2.50

0

$2.00

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 11

PADD II ULSD Price PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 0

2,000

4,000

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied)

6,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 11

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

0

2,000

4,000

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied)

6,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 11

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

0

2,000

4,000

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied)

6,000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 11

PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 12

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Midwest ULSD Price

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

320

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

300

$4.50

$4.00

280

$3.50

$3.00 260 $2.50

$2.00 240 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 12

PADD II ULSD Price Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 225

250

275 Refinery 3:2:1 Crack

300

325

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 12

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

240

260

280 Refinery 3:2:1 Crack

300

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 12

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

240

260

280 Refinery 3:2:1 Crack

300

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 12

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 13

PADD II Diesel Sales Price Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II Diesel Sales Price

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50 5 $5.00

$4.50

$4.00

4

$3.50

$3.00 3 $2.50

$2.00

2 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 13

PADD II Diesel Sales Price Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 2

3

4 PADD II Diesel Sales Price

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 13

PADD II Diesel Sales Price Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

2

3

4 PADD II Diesel Sales Price

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 13

PADD II Diesel Sales Price Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

2

3

4 PADD II Diesel Sales Price

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 13

PADD II Diesel Sales Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 14

PADD II ULSD Sales Price Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II ULSD Sales Price

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

$5.50 5 $5.00

$4.50

$4.00

4

$3.50

$3.00 3 $2.50

$2.00

2 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 14

PADD II ULSD Sales Price Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 2

3

4 PADD II ULSD Sales Price

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 14

PADD II ULSD Sales Price Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

2

3

4 PADD II ULSD Sales Price

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 14

PADD II ULSD Sales Price Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

2

3

4 PADD II ULSD Sales Price

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 14

PADD II ULSD Sales Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 15

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades

Midwest ULSD Price

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

5

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00 4 $4.50

$4.00

$3.50

3

$3.00

$2.50 2

$2.00

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 15

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 1

2

3 PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades

4

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 15

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

2

3

4

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 15

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

2

3

4

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades

5

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 15

PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 16

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot Midwest ULSD Price

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

4

$5.50

$5.00 3 $4.50

$4.00

$3.50 2 $3.00

$2.50 1

$2.00

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 16

PADD II ULSD Price Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 1

2 Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot

3

4

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 16

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

1

2 Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot

3

4

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 16

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

1

2 Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot

3

4

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 16

Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 17

CBOE VIX Midwest ULSD Price

CBOE VIX

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00 50 $5.50

$5.00 40

$4.50

$4.00

30

$3.50

$3.00

20

$2.50

$2.00

10 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 17

CBOE VIX Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 0

10

20

30 CBOE VIX

40

50

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 17

CBOE VIX Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

10

20

30 CBOE VIX

40

50

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 17

CBOE VIX Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

10

20

30 CBOE VIX

40

50

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 17

CBOE VIX Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 18

NYMEX CL Close Midwest ULSD Price

NYMEX CL Close

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

120

$6.00

$5.50 100

$5.00

$4.50 80 $4.00

$3.50 60 $3.00

$2.50

40

$2.00

20 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 18

NYMEX CL Close Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 20

40

60

80 NYMEX CL Close

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 18

NYMEX CL Close Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20

40

60

80 NYMEX CL Close

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 18

NYMEX CL Close Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20

40

60

80 NYMEX CL Close

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 18

NYMEX CL Close Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 19

NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close Midwest ULSD Price

NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

4

$5.50

$5.00

3

$4.50

$4.00

$3.50 2 $3.00

$2.50

$2.00 1 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 19

PADD II ULSD Price NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 1

2 NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close

3

4

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 19

NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

1

2 NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close

3

4

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 19

NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

1

2 NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close

3

4

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 19

NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 20

Cushing Crude Spot Price Midwest ULSD Price

Cushing Crude Spot Price

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

120

$6.00

$5.50 100 $5.00

$4.50 80 $4.00

$3.50

60

$3.00

40

$2.50

$2.00 20 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 20

PADD II ULSD Price Cushing Crude Spot Price Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 20

40

60

80

Cushing Crude Spot Price

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 20

Cushing Crude Spot Price Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20

40

60

80

Cushing Crude Spot Price

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 20

Cushing Crude Spot Price Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20

40

60

80

Cushing Crude Spot Price

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 20

Cushing Crude Spot Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 21

Heat Crack Midwest ULSD Price

Heat Crack

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

120

$6.00

$5.50 100 $5.00

$4.50 80 $4.00

$3.50

60

$3.00

40

$2.50

$2.00 20 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 21

PADD II ULSD Price Heat Crack Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 20

40

60

80 Heat Crack

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 21

Heat Crack Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20

40

60

80 Heat Crack

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 21

Heat Crack Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

20

40

60

80 Heat Crack

100

120

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 21

Heat Crack Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 22

RBOB Crack Midwest ULSD Price

RBOB Crack

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

140

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

120

$4.50

$4.00

100

$3.50

$3.00 80 $2.50

$2.00 60 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 22

PADD II ULSD Price RBOB Crack Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 40

60

80

100 RBOB Crack

120

140

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 22

RBOB Crack Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

60

80

100 RBOB Crack

120

140

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 22

RBOB Crack Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

60

80

100 RBOB Crack

120

140

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 22

RBOB Crack Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 23

Winter Midwest ULSD Price

Winter

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

97.5

$5.50

$5.00

95.0

$4.50

$4.00

92.5

$3.50

$3.00

90.0

$2.50

$2.00

87.5 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 23

Winter Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 88

90

92 Winter

94

96

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 23

Winter Linear Regression

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 88

90

92 Winter

94

96

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 23

Winter Non-Linear Regression

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 88

90

92 Winter

94

96

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 23

Winter Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 24

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index Midwest ULSD Price

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

$6.00

50

$5.50

$5.00 40 $4.50

$4.00 30 $3.50

$3.00 20 $2.50

$2.00

10

$1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 24

PADD II ULSD Price Midwest Consumer Confidence Index Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 0

20 Midwest Consumer Confidence Index

40

60

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 24

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

10

20

30

40

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index

50

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 24

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

10

20

30

40

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index

50

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 24

Midwest Consumer Confidence Index Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 25

ATA Truck Tonnage Midwest ULSD Price

ATA Truck Tonnage

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

100

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

90

$4.50

$4.00

$3.50

80

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

70 2019

$1.50 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 25

ATA Truck Tonnage Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 70

80

90 ATA Truck Tonnage

100

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 25

ATA Truck Tonnage Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

70

80

90 ATA Truck Tonnage

100

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 25

ATA Truck Tonnage Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

70

80

90 ATA Truck Tonnage

100

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 25

ATA Truck Tonnage Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 26

Vehicle Miles Traveled Midwest ULSD Price

Vehicle Miles Traveled

2026 Forecast

2027 Forecast

300,000

$6.00

$5.50 275,000 $5.00

$4.50 250,000 $4.00

$3.50

225,000

$3.00 200,000

$2.50

$2.00 175,000 $1.50 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Dependent Variable Independent Variable 26

PADD II ULSD Price Vehicle Miles Traveled Scatterplot

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

ULSD

$4.00

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50 200000

250000 Vehicle Miles Traveled

300000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 26

Vehicle Miles Traveled Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

175000

200000

225000

250000

Vehicle Miles Traveled

275000

300000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 26

Vehicle Miles Traveled Non-Linear Regression

$5.50

$5.50

$5.00

$5.00

$4.50

$4.50

$4.00

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.00

$3.00

$2.50

$2.50

$2.00

$2.00

$1.50

$1.50

ULSD

$6.00

ULSD

$6.00

175000

200000

225000

250000

Vehicle Miles Traveled

275000

300000

Dependent Variable

PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 26

Vehicle Miles Traveled Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant 100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

-0%

-0%

-20%

-20%

-40%

-40%

-60%

-60%

-80%

-80%

-100%

-100% -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 Lags/Leads

2

4

6

8

10

12