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Independents PADD II forecasts version 1c

Page 1


TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

CrossCorrelationFunction

Scatterplot

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

LinearRegression

Non-Linear

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Scatterplot

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Scatterplot

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

NYMEX CL Close

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

LinearRegression

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

LinearRegression

Non-Linear

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Scatterplot

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

LinearRegression

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

LinearRegression

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

Scatterplot

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

TimeSeriesPlots

Scatterplot

LinearRegression

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Scatterplot

Non-LinearRegression

CrossCorrelationFunction(CCF)

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 1 PADD I ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 2 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 3 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Scatterplot

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Variable 3 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 3 PADD II ULSD Ending Stocks 5-Year Average Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable 4 PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 4 PADD III ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 5 PADD IV ULSD Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 6 PADD II Crude Oil Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 7 Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Scatterplot

Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks
Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks
Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 7 Cushing OK Crude Oil Ending Stocks Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 8 PADD II ULSD Production Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 9 PADD II ULSD Imports Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Variable 10 PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 10 PADD II ULSD Net Receipts Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

0 2,000 4,000 6,000

Independent Variable 11 PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Scatterplot

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Variable 11 PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Linear Regression

Variable PADD II ULSD Price Independent Variable 11 PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Non-Linear Regression

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 11 PADD II ULSD Demand (Product Supplied) Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 12 Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 13 PADD II Diesel Sales Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 14 PADD II ULSD Sales Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 15 PADD II Conventional Retail Gasoline All Grades Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 16 Gulf Conventional Gas Regular Spot Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 17 CBOE VIX Scatterplot

Independent Variable 17 CBOE VIX Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent

Price

Independent Variable 18 NYMEX CL Close Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 19 NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD Close Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 20 Cushing Crude Spot Price Scatterplot

Cushing Crude Spot Price
Cushing Crude Spot Price
Cushing Crude Spot Price

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 20 Cushing Crude Spot Price Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 21 Heat Crack Scatterplot

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 21 Heat Crack Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 22 RBOB Crack Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent

Independent Variable 23 Winter Scatterplot

Variable 23 Winter Linear Regression

Independent Variable 23 Winter Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Dependent

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 24 Midwest Consumer Confidence Index Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Truck Tonnage

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 25 ATA Truck Tonnage Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

Independent Variable 26 Vehicle Miles Traveled Scatterplot

Dependent

Variable PADD II ULSD Price

Independent Variable 26 Vehicle Miles Traveled Lag\ Lead Correlations with ULSD Price

Correlations beyond Boundary Lines are Statistically Signifcant

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Independents PADD II forecasts version 1c by Joel Fingerman - Issuu