Teton Valley Real Estate Market Report | Q3 2023

WEST SID E OF THE TE TONS

Market Report Third Quarter

2023

Featured Property: #DZYS4W

Teton Valley, Idaho — Q3 2023 Sales Volume Vs. Units Sold 20 0 9-202 2

SA L ES VO LU M E

U N ITS SO LD

U N I TS SO L D

$ 65 0 M

1 , 3 00

$ 60 0 M

1 , 200

$550M

1 , 100

$5 0 0 M

1 ,000

$450M

900

$400M

800

$350M

700

$300M

600

$250M

5 00

$ 20 0 M

4 00

$ 15 0 M

3 00

$10 0 M

20 0

$5 0 M

10 0 20 0 9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

With three months left in 2023, it seems doubtful the Teton Valley real estate market will reach the symbolic $500M mark for its year-end dollar volume. Through Q3, year-to-date transactions are down 32 percent and the complementing dollar volume from those sales is down 23.4 percent when compared to the same period in 2022.

While vacant land sales have been the driver for the Teton Valley market in recent years, home sales are carrying the day in 2023. The 137 home sales thus far in 2023 (out of a total 420 closings for all property types on the year to date) generated more than $180M in closed sales volume (or 58.6 percent of the $308M closed in the first nine months of 2023). And while higher mortgage interest rates have diminished the buyer pool in 2023, the upper end of Teton Valley market (that is, properties

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Sales Volume By Price Category

YTD 202 2 VS. 2023

YTD 202 2 VS. 2023 YT D 2023

U N ITS SOLD

252

YTD 202 2

$ 20 0 M

$ 2 20 M

$ 18 0 M

$ 20 0 M

$ 160 M

$180M 247

$ 14 0 M

183

YTD 2023

UNITS SOLD 103

91

$ 16 0 M

145

$ 14 0 M

$ 120 M

164

$ 1 20 M

$ 10 0 M

$ 10 0 M

$80M

119 351

$80M

$ 60 M

10 9

$40M $ 20 M

202 2

with a listing price of >$1M) is outperforming the overall market with only an 11.7 percent decline in year-to-date upper-end sales compared to 2022.

215 vacant land sales also generated nearly $80M in sales for the first nine months of 2023. Those sales represent 51.2 percent of all transactions in 2023. For the same period in 2022, vacant land transactions accounted for 59.9 percent of all closings.

Of the areas of Victor, Driggs, Alta and Tetonia, Driggs saw the largest decline in transactions for the last twelve months. Transactions are down 42.5 percent and dollar volume is down 37.8 percent compared to the same period in 2022. Alta has fared the best thus far in 2023, down 20 percent on sales compared to 2022, but up 26 percent on dollar volume.

Sales Volume By Area Y T D 202 2

Cover Property: #B9TG5L

2016

10

84

210

$40M

8

A LTA

$60M

$ 20 M

VICTO R

D RIGGS

T ETONIA

< $500K

$500K-$1M

>$1M

Condominiums/Townhomes

Featured Property: #L57HZQ

Forty-eight condos or townhomes sold in the first nine months of 2023 ranging in price from $315,882 (for a

Sales Volume By Area

* excludes fracti o n a l u n i ts

YTD 202 2 VS. 2023

3-bedroom, 1-bath, 900-sq.ft. condo in Victor) to $980,000 YTD 202 2

(for a 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo zoned for short-term rentals at Teton Springs). Year-to-date sales, however, represent a 41.5 percent drop in transactions from the same period in 2022; the complementing dollar volume from these 2023 sales also accounted for a 41.8 percent decline.

More than any other asset class, higher mortgage interest rates have thinned the entry-level buyer pool. A slight

YTD 2023

UNITS SOLD

$ 4 5M

$40M 54

$ 35M

$ 30 M

increase in inventory currently on the market (34 units are on the market compared to 24 in 2022) due to the completion of new construction in developments like The Ponds, Moraine

$ 2 5M

$ 20 M

Square, Lakewood and Stone Peak has created a “buyer’s market” climate given the current pace of sales.

While the average sale price in this category was essentially flat year over year, sales of new units in these same communities during 2023 helped to push the median

23

$ 5M

percent to $579,000 (for a 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath, 1,175-sq.ft. townhome in Moraine Square).

CU R R E N T A R E A STATS

25

$ 10 M

sale price for a condo or townhome in Teton Valley up 10.2

At A Glance

27

$ 1 5M

0

1

0

ALTA

VICTOR

DRIG G S

0

T E TO NI A

Number of Condominiums Sold Q3 2023

% Change in Average Sales Price from Q3 2022

Q3 2023 Average Condominiums Sale Price

Average Days on Market

48

-0.6%

$585,552

110

Single Family Homes

Featured Property: #LTJ4T5

Sales Volume By Area

While the 137 homes that sold through Q3 2023 represent a 9.9 percent decline in sales compared to the

YTD 202 2 VS. 2023

same period in 2022 (and where the corresponding sold Y TD 2023

YTD 202 2

U N ITS SO LD

dollar volume also fell 4.2 percent), strong sales in the upper end of the Teton Valley home market managed to

$90 M

56

$8 0 M

push the average sale price up 6.3% to more than $1.3M. Twelve sales in the private community of Tributary

51

73

(where the average sale price was more than $3.1M)

65 $70 M

contributed to the bump in the overall average sale price.

That said, the median home sale price only slipped slightly

$60 M

from $950,000 in 2022 (for a newer 3-bedroom, 3-bath, $50M

2,200 sq.ft. home in Victor) to $925,000 (for a 5-bedroom, 3-bath, 3,800 sq.ft. home in Victor).

$40M

Home inventory fell precipitously from Q3 2022 to $30M

Q3 2023. Last year, 115 homes were listed for sale as of October 1st. In 2023, that number had fallen to 73. And

6

$ 20 M

18

5

15

based on the pace of sales for this segment of the market, the limited inventory has pushed the needle back ever so

$10 M

slightly into the “seller’s market” range (and despite the

CU R R E NT A R EA STATS

At A Glance

A LTA

VICTO R

D RIGGS

TETONIA

highest mortgage interest rates in more than two decades).

Number of Single Family Homes Sold Q3 2023

% Change in Average Sales Price from Q3 2022

Q3 2023 Average Single Family Home Sale Price

Average Days on Market

137

+6.3%

$1,318,454

160

Land & Ranches

Featured Property: #P3T2D3

Sales Volume By Area

Through Q3 2023, buyers’ appetite for raw land continues to cool. The 215 parcels that closed in the

YTD 202 2 VS. 2023

first nine months of 2023 were a 41.9 percent drop Y T D 202 2

Y TD 2023

U N ITS SO LD

$8 0 M

versus the same period in 2022. The corresponding dollar volume from those sales (nearly $80M) was also

136

a 47.4 percent drop year over year.

An increase in inventory isn’t to blame for these

$70 M

declines. Last October, 309 vacant parcels of land $60 M

were listed for sale. One year later, that number fell to 251 (or an 18.7 percent decrease).

$50M

While sale prices ranged from a modest $72,500

139

(for a 1-acre parcel in Tetonia) to a lofty $3.7M (for

$40M

90 $30M

85

59

69

more than 600 acres in Tetonia), the median land sale in 2022 was a 2.8-acre parcel in Tetonia that sold for $210,000. This year, the median price has slipped

$ 20 M

to $195,000 (or 7.1 percent) following the sale of a

$10 M

5

homesite in Teton Springs. Following suit, the average sale price dropped 9.6 percent in 2023 (down to

2

$370,947).

CUR R E N T A R E A STATS

At A Glance

ALTA

V I CTOR

DRIGGS

T E TO NI A

Number of Land & Ranch Sites Sold Q3 2023

% Change in Average Sales Price from Q3 2022

Q3 2023 Average Land & Ranch Sites Sale Price

Average Days on Market

215

-9.6%

$370,947

155

Featured Property: #6RE4LW

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Although the foregoing data has been compiled from sources deemed reliable, Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty does not guarantee its authenticity. It is intended for informational purposes only, is subject to prior sale, error, revision, and cancellation without notice, and should be independently verified with the source of such information. Source data is provided by Teton Board of Realtors MLS for areas one through ten, and supplemented with proprietary sales data for $0 sales. ®,™ and SM are licensed trademarks to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. An Equal Opportunity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty is Independently Owned and Operated.