An Invitation to Reimagine

AN INVITATION TO REIMAGINE True agency is the freedom to choose what to learn as well as how to learn it.

Exploring the Potential Future Role of Pedagogical Technology in the Australian Secondary School Learning Environment.

Jen

Stumbles|#2341941|

FUTURES

RESEARCH

UNIVERSITY

/

HOUSTON

FALL

jstumbles@uh.edu

2023

MASTERS

PROGRAM

SUMMARY

Education (both inside + outside of school) operates as and within,

a Complex Adaptive System

AN INVITATION TO REIMAGINE

We need to reimagine education beyond the legacy worldviews & system structures we seek

to break free of. We can start by accepting education as the complex adaptive system that it

is. Just as children cannot be controlled through authority alone, or forced to learn without

We need to think more critically about how we might realise technology’s inherent

personal enrolment . . nor can we ignore the disruptive change emerging elsewhere. The

complex adaptive system that is education, in the broadest sense (including informal + formal,

potential as a harbinger of future states.

school + non-school), will continue to change and respond to the external global environment,

whether schools innovate or not.

Edtech has largely filled a vacuum where few alternatives exist.

FUTURE ARTEFACT

Edtech’s “progress or success” to date, rests squarely on its ability to provide solutions to

current urgent challenges within the existing frame (a need for technology integration,

balanced with increasing administration, resource shortages and remote requirements). A

frame in which few other alternatives are being offered. How might the dominant discourse

driven by Edtech and our own worldviews, bias and epistemology of technology be shaping

our imaginations? How might we move beyond that? What if we were prepared to change

ourselves as much as the system?

Watch the 2055 Global ScrollyTale of the Year https://edfuturehub.com/future-fable

Technology and global change is outpacing our system.

The challenge with imagining the future role of technology within education, is that it demands

of us, that we reimagine education entirely. Technology, future work, culture and life is

changing exponentially faster than the pace of education reform. On every front technology is

and will continue, to disrupt the status quo - not just within a learning or work space, but

within modes of connection, communities of practice, pathways to agency and identity, and

learning as part of the transformative social connective process.

W

e have the opportunity to reframe how we see the present

It is only by embracing the uncertainty that exists between our ideas about historical order

and future chaos, that we can hope to reshape the system with both the stability + flexibility

that our potential futures demand. What if we found the unconventional experts, the

committed outliers? What if we used future-focused structures and modes of operation that

You can view the full version of this project at https://edfuturehub.com/

reflect the future possibility you seek to create? - the focus here is global, self-driven,

decentralised participatory network structures and knowledge nodes, that invite a radical

rethink of education as a system.

Images: AI Midjourney

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 2

FRAMING DOMAIN DESCRIPTION

Client

Key Outcome

Geographic Scope

This research is being conducted to assist the Head of Preparedness and Response, at the fictional Australian Secondary School Technology Network (ASSTN) to explore how they might leverage the real potential of pedagogical technology in the future Australian secondary school learning environment.

Understanding how we might think more critically about the role of technology within the context of secondary school learning; and how we might realise its inherent potential as the harbinger of future states.

The scope for this project focuses on the Australian secondary school market, but given the global nature of these technologies, we will look outside of Australia as part of our horizon scanning process.

Key Question Project Type: EXPLORATORY

What role should pedagogical technology play in the Australian secondary school learning environment to prepare our students for potential futures ahead?

Lines of Enquiry { How might future technology experiences transform pedagogiesa { What inherently human challenges does this technology surface and how might we meet thema { Where is the key tension in the alignment of scaleable pedagogical frameworks with non-linear outcomesa { How might an increasing future reliance on technology, shape our understanding of expertise, learning and shared value in the futurea { How might technology itself help us to navigate the uncertain futures ahead?

Time Horizon >2023

2028 H1

2033 H2

2034+ H3

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 3

FRAMING

Educational reform is inherently political and difficult to manage between national and state governments. Pressure from Govt, academic experts, schools and think tanks makes for a challenging job.

+ STAKEHOLDERS

A QUESTION OF FRAMING The challenge we have in front of

ve me t + ym ke

Go

rn

Polic

n

a

EDTECH INDUSTRY LEADERS There are approx 600 educational

rs

technology companies in Australia

Government Education Ministers

(both pedagogical technology and

and Policy Advisors at a National

administrative academic

(Federal) and State / Territory level.

technology).

TEACHERS Secondary school teachers across all

us, is to help students imagine and

School Principals

All schools are struggling with a lack of resources and teacher shortages at present. There is pressure on private independent schools to be at the forefront of educational progress and inline with international best practices, especially across careerpreparation modules and technology approaches.

experience the ways in which

technology as a force will shape

their future lives - not just new job

roles and ways of working, but

connection, augmented thought

processes, information gathering

and synthesis, new models of value

and play. We seek to prepare them

for their role as global citi

zens and

the opportunities that await them, to

disciplines including (but not limited

to) technology or

School Principals and leaders across

-f

state

unded and private

independent secondary schools.

STUDENTS

Students in

f

reshaping of how we interact with

the planet and the people we share

Could anything be more ?

important

Y

ears

7 - 12

secondary schools.

PARENTS Parents o

f

IC

T.

Technology in secondary schools sits both within the curriculum subjects outlined in this assessment, and also within individual disciplines (although mostly as a substitute or augmentation tool).

secondary school aged

children in

- 18

-

at state

unded or private independent

Y

ears

7 - 12

(age approx

12

).

Parents have a dual perspective on technology.

They are both anxious to ensure their children are being prepared for the workplaces of the future, but personal experience in the home (managing screentime) clouds their experiences.

engage them in the necessary

it with.

The edtech industry in Australia is expected to grow at an annual rate of 9.38% with a projected market volume of USD174.50m by 2027. ㉑ Edtech leaders have a vested interest in maintaining the narrative of edtech driving change and increased opportunity within the education space.

The challenge here in this project, is that at its core, it is not a strictly

Students use of technology is widespread across learning, socialising and gaming. 4 out of 5 students have at least one device for their own personal use with an average of 3.5 devices per child. They are enthusiastic about technology and regularly use it within the flow of learning work.

'

technological problem. It s helpful to think of the education system as a

If technology is the answer, what is the question?

Secondary school students are preparing for a work future within a post-industrialised context where their future employment fferent from previous generations (and most likely, radically disconnected) from the school system within

will be radically di

which they are being prepared.

The critical question I’m exploring in this project is - what future role might pedagogical ? The Australian Technology Curriculum tends to view

technologies play within the Australian secondary learning environment

technology as a

‘tool’ without understanding or realising its true potential as a harbinger of future states. If we continue to

consider technology from an instrumentalist point of view, disconnected from the broader system of social, economic, political

and environmental forces within which it operates, we do both ourselves and our children a great disservice.

(Beare &

Slaughter, 2021)

complex adaptive system, and to identify the unresolved root challenge which

KEY STAKEHOLDERS

defines the context for this technology question.

How might we reconceptualise education to prepare our students for the future?

And now we can see that technology in this context, is the proxy for a much bigger question. Given the nature of this project is to explore the potential role of

technology within the Australian secondary school space; and the complexity of exploring this question within the broader context of education as a complex

adaptive system - let us frame this current assessment for clarity. 3 clicks in on Google will surface a myriad of superficial solves for the relationship between

technology and education. In order to provide a rigorous and disciplined exploration of the future role of technology that is both possible and plausible; it’s critical that

we focus on both the broader educational context and technology’s current placement within it. We do this to avoid emasculating the project challenge and further

down the track, jumping to simplified scenarios which neither answer the challenge in a plausible manner, nor account for the complexity in solving it.

REFERENCES

⑫

‌

‌

Beare,

H.,

&

Slaughter,

R.

(2021).

Education

for

the

Twenty-First

Century.

Routledge.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 4

SCANNING

Government educational reform is driven by future

HISTORY

market-dynamics; reinforcing the idea of education as

2021

UNESCO develops a framework to guide educational policymakers in preparing for the increasing role of AI UNESCO AI Guide for Education Policymakers

an ‘output-focused’ system, thus resigning technology 1987 - A key period in the GLOBAL SYSTEM development of Technology Education in Australia eventually leading to the 1994 nationally agreed curriculum which included AUS EDUCATION tech as a compulsory learning area. ⑥ SYSTEM Senior secondary computing subjects More generalist mirroring computing courses introductory that appealed to a (first-year) wider range of university students. ① subjects were introduced .①

1987

1980 CURRICULUM

FOCUS

No generalised

curriculum policy framework meant tech courses were combined with popular trends in ICT skills, website development and learning software applications.

ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

1990

to the role of ‘enabler’ . . but enabler of what?

Australian Digital Technologies

A Statement on Technology for Australian Schools

1994 - Australian states and territories produce a nationally agreed curriculum including technology but post-1994 the political climate means the program is not adopted nationally. ⑥

1994

The 2000 dotcom crash affects interest in computing . Secondary computer science– focused courses survived in most Australian states but became increasingly marginalised as enrolments fell. ①

2000

2008

2000s

Blended Learning

Computer education is relegated to a subset of a vocationally based Technologies curricula, dominated by woodworking and home economics.

This leads to more computer use across subjects, and raised questions about the need for computer education courses.

1994

Web 1.0

Commonwealth Digital Education Revolution The Commonwealth Digital Education Revolution gives high school students 1:1 computer access and internet. ①

2004

Web 2.0

Digital Technologies curriculum is introduced across all years of schooling, excluding the final senior years. ①

2010

The UK Government stops computer education in schools after being criticized by the Royal Society and Eric Schmidt. This leads to a realignment towards computer science.

Australia incorporates the UK's changes with the computational thinking framework. ①

2011

Curriculum The Australian Government introduces Australia reviews & the Digital reinforces endorsed Technologies the Digital curriculum, aiming to Technologies subject engage students from with minor changes.

Foundation to Year 12 Digital Literacy now - focused beyond includes a greater computer usage it focus on cyber safety encompasses creative and artificial engagement with intelligence technology. ① concepts. ①

2014

2020

2021

Virtual Learning

AustralianComputer

Education Review A review into Australian Computer Education identifies key challenges remain around a national approach, teacher support & training, increased investment and pedagogical transformation. ①

2022 The 2022 report identifies general, outdated equipment that is prone to failures reinforces teacher disengagement from using technologies to support their teaching, and results in little time being spent on Digital Technologies and

Digital Literacy teaching. ①

This sees a fundamental shift, from computer education being a marginalised subset of the Technologies curriculum to becoming the first new compulsory subject since the 1960s.

Social &

Although the Australian Curriculum, Assessment &

Reporting Authority (ACARA) publishes a national curriculum, it is not mandated across all states, and many schools and teachers are struggling with the requirements of the curriculum. ①

Only 18% of schools

overall reported extensive use of

technologies within all subject areas (Digital Literacy) ①

MOOCs

Personal computers

became available in schools.

60% of Australian

Education is operating within a larger EDTECH

dynamic global system where some parts of

The Australian EdTech sector undergoes rapid growth, doubling in size between 2014 and 2019. ⑤

The the system are changing and increasing Relations velocity at a faster rate than others. hip of Things REFERENCES (RoT) ① Computer education in Australian schools 2022 Report. Enabling the next generation of IT professionals. ② Deloitte EduGrowth Report, 2020. ③ Encouraging signs for Australia’s edtech market with solid growth expected. ④ Australian Market Insights, Statistica. ⑤ EduGrowth. ⑥ Technology Education in Australia 20 Years in Retrospect.

Edtech is focused on the secondary school market . ② Total revenue in the Education market is projected to reach US$106.00m in 2022. ④

Australia’s edtech market is projected to grow by 11% by 2025 ③

Australian Edtech expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2022-2027) of 9.38%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$174.50m by 2027. ④

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 5

SCANNING

MIND THE GAP A widening gap between pedagogy + the socio-cultural systems within which technology exists; and how those systems create and shape change, and learners’ experience within it.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

Disconnect between pedagogy, curriculum, assessment

Teachers still at the Heart

and desired learning outcomes.

The most prominent pedagogical technology being used in Australian

Technology use in schools remains for the most part, at a substitution / schools (utilising learning management systems such as Blackboard or augmentation level of adoption and seems to assume a continuing status Google Classroom) continues to reinforce a teacher-centred pedagogy quo, driven in large part by a collective belief system about the nature of model. ㉛Technology in this context, is being utilised as a digital

DRIVER: DISCONNECTION

technology. New schools of thought such as e (TPACK) ⑮ /

TEPACK ⑯ substitute for the organisation and distribution of materials. Whilst there

invite a similarly self-limiting empirical approach. Technology seems to be is often a ‘chat’ or ‘discussion’ component within these programs, they viewed through this historically instrumentalist lens of ‘what is useful’? which simply reinforce the teacher-centric pedagogy, offering little to disrupt the orientates the domain of technology knowledge evermore toward a skillstraditional paradigms that a genuine student-centric or self-directed based output-focused domain, neglecting the very shifts which make activity or a more immersive technology approach might invite. ⑳ technology so important. ⑨

The intentional + Cultural / interior component of Fragmentation + Reductionist Models of Technology

students’ current and future technology experience

Knowledge

is Missing

Whilst there are clearly exceptions to this (both in school approaches,

A disconnect between the educational experience and the shifting

teacher-led pedagogies and individual curriculum decisions), technology

DRIVER: DISCONNECTION

continues to be taught in a fragmented fashion. Historically the Australian secondary school curriculum

motivations, perceptions, goals and sense of purpose that technology invites

has categorised technology

for a younger, digitally-native generation.

Further disconnection between the

collective experience of existing within a multitude of social technology

fl

according to an instrumentalist output-focused approach around skills:

systems and the way in which these system experiences in uence students’

either computer programming or design and production OR a

collective (and individual) ideas about learning, value, worldview and internal

generalised knowledge subject.

narratives of both themselves, and their possible futures.

Technology as Singular Entity

It’s tempting to continue to view technology as a singular entity and discount

Complex Change Cycles Demand a more Dynamic Future

Work Self

We’re now operating within a global system of dynamic change

DRIVER: AGENCY

the invitation to a wider perspective as unnecessarily complicated or

; where

;

confusing and yet, it is these very realms within the human experience of

market demands, technology progress and the exponential rate of growth technology, which are driving radical change and in the context of in access to information, multiplying of connection and global outreach is government-desired learning outcomes - radical economic progress to boot.

fi

moving at a signi cantly faster pace than the lifecycle of educational reform. ⑨

How can we support students to create meaning and identity for themselves,

DRIVER: DISCONNECTION

and

find purposeful work within this new future context? And what role might

technologies play in enabling or facilitating this?

REFERENCES

➇ The ‘Future of the Classroom’ report, by Google for Education, Emerging Trends in K-12 Education, Australian Edition, 2019. ⑨ Hernes, Gudmund & UNESCO,. (2002). Emerging trends in ICT and challenges to educational planning. ⑩ Australian curriculum - Year 10 technology curriculum outline example]. ⑫ Williams, P John. (1993). Technology Education in Australia: Twenty Years in Retrospect. ECU Publications. 3.

10.1007/BF00183707. ⑮ Australian Digital Technologies Hub. ⑯ Edtech in the Classroom, Simon Baddeley, 2020. ⑲The Digital Landscapes in Australian Schools 2023 Report, Campion Education. ⑳ Prestridge, S. (2014). A focus on students’ use of Twitter – their interactions with each other, content and interface. Active Learning in Higher Education, 15(2), 101–115. https://doi.org/10.1177/1469787414527394.

㉛ Growing up Digital Australia, Phase 2 Technical Report, 2021, UNSW Gonski Institute for Education.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 6

SCANNING

TRENDS

TIPPS (TRENDS, ISSUES, PLANS +PROJECTIONS)

The latest Campion report⑲ states that 50

%

of Australian secondary

schools are utilising both print and digital tools and resources and 30

%

of schools are looking to deepen their digital commitment.

%

92

%

90

use

P

DF te

x

tbooks or interactive te

x

tbook

s

use digital learning software ⑲

DRIVER: MYTH OF PROGRESS

2019

the

|

Google

Future

of

Classroom

Report

➇

Technology as Enabler, but of what?

PROJECTIONS The 2023 Australian Financial Review Workforce Summit forecast

reports that tech jobs continue to rise at triple the rate of the rest of

the economy and Australia has a deficit of tech-capable people

which surfaces an immediate challenge for policymakers as they

seek to build Australian capability for these future dynamics.

Future of Work, Education and Skills report from the OECD highlight

a need to shift from a statis linear learning progression model to a

'non-linear' dynamic model where each student has their own

learning path.

PLANS The Australian Govt 21st Skill Development information found online

covers much of the WHAT, albeit lacking specific detail on the HOW.

What is also apparent in reading these reports, is that they share little

of the urgency or framing around 21stC skill development being

utilised in the World Economic Forum or OECD reports. The updated

(V9 2022) Technology Curriculum for all intents and purposes

continues to be very similar to its predecessor developed in 2015

REFERENCES

⑲The

Digital

Landscapes

in

Australian

Schools

2023

Report,

Campion

Education.

➇

The

‘Future

of

the

Classroom’

report,

by JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 7

Google

for

Education,

Emerging

Trends

in

K-12

Education,

Australian

Edition,

2019.

EMERGING ISSUES

SCANNING TIPPS (TRENDS, ISSUES, PLANS +PROJECTIONS)

CURRENT + EMERGING ISSUES

>EMERGING

Belonging to the Man

Changing Teacher Roles

Most schools in Australia are either Google or Microsoft schools, and

How will teachers grapple with the change needed to deliver true

there is growing concern about the potential impact of a technology

student-centred learning? As emerging technologies continue to

partner such as Google driving the emerging pedagogy via the

accelerate decentralised and redistributed systems of knowledge

technology as the starting point. There is also growing concern within

and influence; teachers and principals will face increasing challenges

the teaching community about the privacy rights of teachers as it

unless they're able to redefine their roles from the keepers of

pertains to their own personal information through the use of these

>EMERGING

knowledge, to the facilitators of practice and self-led learning.

systems.

There's the potential here for further divide between govt. education policymakers in Canberra and teachers on the ground in schools.

DRIVER: UNCERTAINTY

DRIVER: UNCERTAINTY

The Decoupling of Learning Process and Assessment

Human Experience VS Pedagogy Disconnect

With the likely further decentralisation of Education Systems and

In the face of increasingly sophisticated human technology experiences; how will

potential uncoupling of learning process / experience and

schools support students to create meaning and identity for themselves, and find

assessment; how will education leaders and teachers assess and

purposeful work within a new future context? In what ways will govt.

ensure the delivery of consistent quality for all students across the >EMERGING

policymakers and education support systems need to rethink their roles and

board?

“The risk is that the education system will be churning out humans who

responsibilities (and potentially their own internal capability) to facilitate these

>FUTURE

emerging shifts? Given the disconnect of cadence + depth between technology

are no more than second-rate computers, so if the focus of education

progression and curriculum reform; how will school leaders negotiate the ever-

continues to be on transferring explicit knowledge across the

changing role and need to continue developing technology pedagogy to keep

generations, we will be in trouble." OECD

DRIVER: DECENTRALISATION

DRIVER: DISCONNECTION

Emergent Education Policy

>FUTURE

The Slow Pace of Oversimplification

The agenda for education policy is in large part, defined by the

There is growing concern amongst teachers and academia on the impacts of

broader labour market and economic conditions of the time.

placing technology at the core of education innovation. Much of the dominant

How will policymakers balance short-term government priorities with

discourse is being driven by education technology providers (whether platform

learners' longterm interests to make the meaningful and relevant

technologies like Google classroom or edtech apps such as Kahoot), and there

curriculum shifts that are so urgently required? Increasing

is a real risk that the education sector falls prey to to oversimplified notions of

complexity across technologies and future work, means a multi-

DRIVER: UNCERTAINTY

pace with student' real world experiences?

>EMERGING

learning with technology packaged up by those who stand to commercially gain

disciplinary or interdisciplinary approach to technology pedagogy is

from wide acceptance. How will education policy providers ensure that the

critical. How will govt. education policymakers grapple with

pedagogical debate is not being driven by the market whilst at the same time,

increasing pressure to change the approach, cadence and

acknowledging the lag in research reviews which leaves a vacuum for school

transparency of educational policymaking?

DRIVER: MYTH OF PROGRESS

leaders struggling to keep pace with teacher and / or student demand?

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 8

After talking with 3 educational experts about theories and perspectives on technology's future role; what's clear is that the voices of young learners are desperately missing from this conversation. The voice of young learners on the fringes, who are already engaging in non-linear pathways and taking responsibiliity for their own learning.

SCANNING

PRIMARY RESEARCH

THE MYTH OF PROGRESS IS ALIVE AND WELL. Edtech is driving much of the conversation and utilising its commercial power to produce the content, training and resources our underfunded education system so desperately needs. It's heartening to know there are

t h e

all learning is voluntary

p r o f e s s o r

Much has been written in academic circles about the difference between the creative thinker, the gifted learner and the high achiever. What about those T H E

learners who excel at technology? Who instinctively understand when, how

P R O G R E S S I V E

D I G I T A L

C O N N E C T O R

and why connections matter and how to make them? Who might be average performers at school and yet, in the privacy of their own channels they are vibrant, disciplined, rigorous learners with a voracious appetite for T H E

S C H O O L

T E A C H E R

knowledge and experiences? How do we enable kids to be 'seen' within a system that cannot grade their achievements in this space nor understand

The challenging thing is that nothing about this kind of learning . . looks like school.

people out there who have edtech's number and understand the longterm implications of a technology-market driven approach. The challenge he highlights, that there is no real clear leadership or voice of reason, is a

that amongst the chaos and the complexity, lies a far richer world which invites kids like this to take a different posture? How do we bring more young voices into the conversation? Why is this puzzle missing so many pieces?

concerning one. How do we galvanise the educational activists of the world?

How do we connect and collaborate to address this challenge across a system with so many constraints?

the heavy lift : schools and their tools The interviews confirmed much of the previous research around

TECHNOLOGY IS BOTH A MEANS TO AN END AND A WHOLE NEW WAY OF BEING

obstacles and constraints within the current system. Even the best theories (with evidence based research) are divorced from the lived

This constantly evolving digital environment necessitates not only the development of whole new sets of skills (of which there are many), but

@ A P P O X Y Z |

a

1 5

y e a r

social behaviours, relational cues, workflows, habits of mind and

h i g h

specialised knowledge. It is both an entirely new way of being; and a

C O N C E P T

transformational step towards the future. It is also just the playground for

o n

N F T

o l d

s c h o o l

T w i t t e r

a n d

&

d e v e l o p m e n t

c u r r e n t l y

A u s t r a l i a . H E D i s c o r d ,

A R C H I T E C T

s e l f

experience of technology, especially for young learners. Experts

y r s

s t u d e n t

i n

P R O J E C T S

t h r o u g h

1 5

F O R

e a r n s

t a u g h t

I S

o p e r a t e s A N

M U L T I P L E a

w e b

l i t t l e d e s i g n

HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT TECHNOLOGY AND

a t t e n d i n g

your own work career in the future?

m o s t l y

O F F I C I A L H I G H o n

t h e

V A L U E s i d e

+

w o r k .

I don't really think about it like that. I use technology with

contrary and that "technology brings this into focus", this resonates

work that I do. Not all of it but I do it because I love

deeply with my initial framing - that the challenge here in this project, is

something out or make something, and if I can get paid

and a clear understanding that what lies on the other side of uncertainty; is opportunity. Not specifically financial (although clearly this is also true),

I had to tell my dad to stop hassling me. He was trying to get me to wash his car for like $20 and I was like . . .

with passion and finding your people.

I just made USD100 this morning doing a PFP* for some dude who is dropping a new NFT project. So no, I don't want to wash your car for $20

Intergenerational knowledge transfer is declining The stark difference between the "experts" and the young learners with their colourful vibrant lived experience in this landscape is plain to see. As are the inherent paradoxes that mark the discourse.

Academics muse on the lag between emerging technologies and evidence-based research to support usage and pedagogy. Teachers experiment but still believe they have to be ' a step ahead'. Ahead of what? The children? The technology? By all rights they are experts, but in understanding how to support learning and scaffold young learners on their journey. They will never be able to compete with the 15 year old kid who stays up late deeply embedded in the discourse community, riffing on NFT development and

.

*Personal

W e a k

S i g n a l s

o n

t h e

F r i n g e

The next-best thing to being

that at its core, it is not a strictly technological problem. It's helpful to think of the education system as a complex adaptive system, and to

for it, it's a bonus.

but opportunity for deep connection, for experiencing learning and living

resilience and grit, into action . . despite their class instructions to the

everything, all the time. And I get paid for some of the learning new stuff. It's addictive. Often I just figure

those who have grown up with the pace of change, the thrill of the new

observed that many teachers are struggling with the practice of putting

Profile

identify the unresolved root challenge which defines the context for this technology question. How might we reconceptualise education to prepare our students for the future? And now we can see that technology in this context, is the proxy object for a much bigger question.

Pic

Non-linear pathways to self-led learning and growth.

The pathways of the young learners I spoke with started with gaming & leveraged social media to create community and find their people. Not stories we often hear amongst the

able to predict the future is

parental pendulum of panic and frustration.

listening to those who will shape it.

the death of X (formerly known as Twitter). So then the question becomes . . what is their role in education's future(s)? To Luke's point, we need the language before we can articulate our thoughts. So where is that voice? That leadership?

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 9

Uncertainty

FUTURING

\ IN T ERNA L U nknown Potential L ives Here

DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Uncertainty \ E XT ERNA L

The rise of an emergent system

We’re operating within a complex adaptive (and

We’re facing a global system of dynamic change, where

human) system of policymakers, school leaders,

market demands, technology progress and exponential

OECD states that educators need to make the shift

teachers & students with a high level of uncertainty about how best to navigate the

to non-linear dynamic models and student-centred

?

rates of growth in information, connection & creativity far outpace the current education system.

future.

pathways

Future Skills Decentralisation

The Concerns over job automation and Reports into the

an urgent reframe

Changing task composition of labour input shows

future of work continues to rise

The need to critically reconceptualise education in order to

routine tasks in decline

effectiveness of AUS school

prepare students for the possible work futures ahead is an

autonomy suggest this has

urgent one. This urgency however, is not shared by everyone.

not improved student

70% of AUS students use

outcomes

ChatGPT for schoolwork & study Homeschooling in Australia

Continued growth

has increased 105% over

toward peer-to-peer

the past 8 years with an

knowledge networks like

The potential impact of

annual growth rate of

Wikipedia

platforms like Google

ITFT lists collaborative AI,

work futures

9 out of 10 jobs in the next 5

quire a post-

years will re Research reports positive

increasingly more sophisticated in their use of functions signalling presence

7

4 % of employment is at risk

computerisation

continues to be the top

Total non-teaching staff in

information

secondary schools increased by

Disconnect between pedagogy,

Regular metaverse users are

Disconnect between

displaying increasingly

what kids learn in

Educational definition of ’

school, and what they ll

representations of self

schools use PDF

need to know for the

textbooks & learning

future

technology is disconnected from the broader system of social, economic, political & environmental forces from within

Homeschooling in Australia has increased 105% over the past 8 years with an annual growth rate of

The recently revised Digital Subjects Curriculum (2020) has developed only

In 2020, the AUS Govt. replaced autonomous school governance with the 'Schools Success'

marginally further than its 2015 predecessor and yet, the world has

centralised reform policy.

tech integration (tool substitution) distracts from the important conversations about the real potential of tech

’

Continued distraction allows the dominant discourse to be

’

driven by the edtech industry s continued

“learning

” success stories which further clouds the waters

innovation

and reinforces the instrumentalist views of success that further perpetuate the myth of progress.

​

Agency

G L O B A L CITI Z ENS OF IMPACT

The urgent challenge & opportunity to build personal agency is critical to student futures. This extends beyond technology, 21st skills or future work readiness.

changed

The focus on successful

debate. Continued focus on core staffing issues disallows

which it operates

that pseudonyms provide

various online services

Multi-level myths of success and progress shape much of the

focus on the real system challenges and tech s role within it.

90% of secondary

boundaries & autonomy

9.4%.

curriculum & learning experiences continue

sophisticated online

Increasingly research suggests

people they interact with across

Agency

3%.

management software

regularly built mental profiles of the

Myth of Progress

DISTRACTIONS FROM THE ENDGAME

Growth in access to

game for AUS kids

Metaverse technology users

personal experience of technology in a real world context.

autonomy

26% while teachers fell by

metaverse style game)

’ experience of tech learning & their

decentralisation & school

the rest of the economy

Roblox (early-stage

between students

trend toward

Tech jobs continue to rise at triple the rate of

visit a venue in the metaverse first

MIND THE GAP

learning experiences is further magnified by the disconnect due to increasing

secondary education

and awareness within the spaces.

(60%) of Millenials say they'd like to

Disconnection The fundamental disconnect between technology pedagogy &

driving pedagogy

metaverse participants are becoming

Future Skills

critically important technologies for

9.4%.

Regular social media users and

XR as

z

risking an oversimplification of the challenges and negating the

’

their role as global citi ens and the part they ll play in

Edtech dominates the discourse in the media about tech & education,

We must prepare them for

reshaping our relationship with the planet and with each other.

Disconnection

We must support them to become impactful urgent optimists.

Decentralisation

rigorous pedagogical discussion that needs to be had

E V ER Y THING IS CONNECTED

The decentralisation of educational systems, dynamic

Myth of Progress

KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE

The key forces that push change forward.

networks of power and influence, peer to peer knowledge sharing & creativity are changing the dynamics of learning.

Moreover, decentralised but increasingly networked relationships and communities mean the traditional rules of power and authority (expertise) no longer apply.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 10

Myth of Progress

Dis Connection

The conservative bias of edtech systems responsible for the homogenising myth of the 2020s; that the delivery of historical, linear methods of learning via new technologies would satisfy changing needs, has been dismantled. The historical edtech market has long been

Knowledge is defined, developed, shaped, circulated, exchanged and discovered within an ever-changing network model. Learning comes from energy flows within this network. Learning and knowledge operates like a current open, participatory and peer-driven. It moves through nodes and networks. The goal is to channel it, not covet, hoard or restrain it. School is not somewhere you go, learning is something you do and it looks markedly different for everyone.

> Legacy Edtech has left the stable

recognised as inherently problematic in pedagogical approach (or lack thereof), and transparency, privacy, portability & interoperability.

Disconnection

> From horseless carriages

Education policymakers' historical approach of technology as an addendum to education is widely accepted as self-limiting and dangerously incorrect. Apropos to this legacy axiom, was the idea of

technology as something we can shape and employ instrumentally, rather than something which shapes us. The disconnect here, is from our own history; as we come to terms with the limits of our attempts to sustain pre-digital ideas about learning and indeed, life. Technology takes its rightful place as both a lens with which to make sense of the world, and a tool to shape our possible futures within it.

Future Skills

> A wholesale reframe

Historical ideas about grading and assessment are seen as bugs of the old system & the decreasing role of intergenerational knowledge transfer sparks a major shift as education leaders focus on critical sense-making skills to preparing learners for the future.

Uncertainty > Breeds emergent resilient systems of change.

> I connect. Therefore I am.

p w

Technology Em o ers

POST-NORMAL FUTURES TRANSFORMATION

NEW EQUILIBRIUM

A pedagogical pilgrimage toward

A Relationship of Things (RoT).

shared futures of possibility.

Education as an autopoietic system.

Education leaders are human lighthouses amidst a sea of uncertainty and

complexity, going to war on the curriculum dichotomies of fact and skill, labelling them as polarising and incomplete foundations for possible futures ahead. Education's role is redefined as one of sense-making with redefined teacher / student roles as learner and leader - interchangeable dependent on context and pedagogical domain knowledge at play.

Disconnection

D

Govt.'s continued shift toward centralising school reform

BASELINE

You've been schooled.

Myth of Progress

Agency > Global Citizens of Impact

Many economically-advantaged children attend virtual schools, or attend physical school part-time and supplement with online programs as more

parents take their children's education into their own hands.

Future Skills

> An urgent reframe

Australia's ability to develop future-focused school graduates declines, and

increased online learning through international systems results in more students choosing international post-graduate study. Australia's job market becomes disproportionately out of step with the global economy and Australia hits a skills ceiling on knowledge / science / research work on the world stage.

Emergent system

established system

G

fails to increase changing key OECD measures, Two critical disconnects are increasing - both the gap between education policy and practice, as stretched teachers struggle to balance top heavy reforms with the realities of teaching AND the critical gap between the growing Edtech and future-work ready student populations.

Agency continues to develop through self-generated intentional action.

The development of personal and collective agency through passion, curiosity and connected experiences locates learning in the flow of agency building, alongside social connection, relationship, community and shared experience. Learners connect with networked publics both individually and through self-forming collaborative pods, engaging in passionate discovery and serendipitous scholarship. This collaborative discovery and network engagement leads to shared learning experiences and deeper community building. Learners of any age, become scholars . . with young learners in secondary / high school commonly referred to as ‘earlywork scholars’, enjoying peer attribution and recognition on-chain, enabling them full autonomy and ownership over their work.Credentials are stacked, and there is no longer a clear distinction between learning, creating, connecting + working.

Future Skills

> I AM the future employer you’ve been preparing me for.

Proof-of-work becomes Proof-of-Self. And by the way . . proof of ‘work’, is whatever learners say it is. In the later years of the period formerly known as

Uncertainty

> Mind the ap

The Australian

> Agency emerges through intentional action

‘schooling’, learners are required to critique, maintain and generously contribute to the Knowledge Commons.

Agency

Future Skills

Agency

> Sees the emergence of a true autopoietic global system Increasing uncertainty occurs as a result of the absence of a common

prescribed curriculum, which in turn increases system complexity moving ecentralisation forward. Knowledge networks and feedback loops continue to emerge and > You can lead from any chair. Or laptop. reform, as learners unite through engagement with inter-disciplinary problemA transformative shift sees the primacy of entity relationships, focused subsystems. Here learning emerges through ‘knowledge in use’ , interactions, processes and networks as key. Learning surfaced in the flow of autonomous learning explorations, stewarded by pathways are co-created by passionate learners, domain educators. Education centres are hybrid and set up to scaffold; selected by masters and learning coaches. Students learn in their own time, education consumers based on access, pathway and facilitator approaches.

asynchronously or in-person, online or off or both. Every learner’s experience is different. Early models of peer-to-peer learning have given way to Peeragogy: collaborative peer-to peer teaching and learning. Like the production of agency, learning is recognised as a socially constructive act. The cocreation of knowledge amongst individuals, groups and participant networks within the system.

Technology Frustrates

Myth of Progress D

> istractions from the Endgame

Australia's edtech sector continues to grow dramatically with renewed focus across content and administration technology. The legacy myth that school

education's objective should continue logically, to be linked with future employers' needs continues. Productivity continues to decline and consistent curriculum / testing has been achieved at the expense of capability building.

Graduate numbers decline further as teaching becomes a last choice profession further reinforcing the perceived need for centralised leadership.

FUTURING EXPLORING MAJOR DRIVERS OF CHANGE ACROSS 3 SCENARIO ARCHETYPES JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 11

FUTURING

Australian students continue to decline.

BASELINE SCENARIO

You’ve been Schooled

Whilst centralised policy reform and widespread education technology has increased the efficiency of communication and assessment between schools and government, educators and

Myth of Progress

teachers on the front lines have struggled to adapt. Concerned parents have increasing begun to intervene and seek alternative methods of education, either wholesale shifts to non-standard education or supplementing govt.-run education with AI tutoring and online or virtual alternatives. We see a host of international 21stC skill-based programs enter the virtual space; and the irony of the times is that whilst Edtech content

Projected mean scores for Australian students

management and administration technology is now Australia's

calculated on existing OECD Australian Pisa

number # 1 export, the majority of (socially advantaged

Education Surveys 2000 - 2018.

students) are being educated by non-AUS online and virtual platforms which focus on capability development through project-based learning in a digital-native context.

Given declining productivity and stagnated teacher pay; high Image: AI Midjourney

Welcome to 2033. Education is now completely centralised at a national level due to productivity pressures; the curriculum is highly structured and education technology has delivered clear output, administrative efficiencies and consistent assessment metrics. The role of teacher has fast become one of 'instructing' a tightly defined syllabus as national policymakers continues to focus in on assessment testing as evidence of reform.

However the centralisation of the education system has not led to an increase in productivity given the changing work environment. As the pace of edtech growth increases further, the rise of increasingly complex global markets and productivity begins to set a new pace . . the Australian education system begins to significantly lag behind its global counterparts. We see this in the 2033 OECD PISA Survey, where key metrics have been redefined globally to meet evolving future requirements, and resultantly Australian student receive their lowest scores in history.

performing teachers are looking to international learning spaces to reskill and reconnect with future-focused educational communities and virtual educational markets.

Given the large percentages of students engaged in

Australia’s 2nd largest startup sector and 3rd biggest export continues to grow . .

decentralised schooling, we observe both a widening of disadvantaged and advantaged students, along with a major increase in Australia's brain drain as students are educated outside the traditional school system with a more global focus, and subsequently choose international post-graduate study.

Australia's job market becomes disproportionately out of step with the global economy as Australia hits the capability ceiling inherently embedded within the current system.

. . with a continued focus on content management systems and administrative technology.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 12

FUTURING NEW EQUILIBRIUM SCENARIO

curriculum is replaced by dynamic nodes offering multi-dimensional learning experiences

A pedagogical

the technology of best fit wins

pilgrimage toward

Each year learners decide on their focus for the year; supported by

Foundational components continue to form critical parts of the

shared futures of possibility.

leaders and coaches, which provides the frame through which they

pathway framework, but these revolve mostly around social

will naturally explore multi-discipline learning pathways on the

emotional learning units, local & community history, and meta-

journey towards production of an annual body of work. All learner-

learning modules (self-awareness & self-leadership as

driven projects are developed within a real-world context and

foundations for the development of agency). Like all

where appropriate utilise both physical maker skills, or whichever

governments, Australia contributes financially to the global

augmented reality or digital discovery tools are necessary to

learning library, but the majority of national educational spend

support the work. The choice of technology (or not), always starts

is channeled toward the continual technology updates for

with the single objective of best fit, for both project and learner.

every learner and leader, together with learning coaches,

Agency

There is no talk of the 'role of technology' or ' digital literacy', nor

Image: AI Midjourney

learning represents a lifelong journey Welcome to 2033 where the Personal Learning Paradigm (PLP) has become the single most important pedagogical framework within our learning ecosystem. Revolutionary education reform saw a global redefining of the roles of learner and leader - both now interchangeable, dependent on both the individual learner, and the context or pedagogical domain knowledge at play. Words like 'teaching' and 'instruction' have been replaced with 'coaching' and 'facilitating', and learners refer to themselves and each other as 'scholars'. Each proudly developing a digitally recorded

community node networks and system infrastructure.

grading or examination. These 'bugs' of the old system have been

Over time Australia's model shows itself to be a transformative

replaced with continuous feedback loops of personal, peer and

investment for the economy. Most learners engage with formal

community reflection, which surface regularly in feedback sessions

education pathways until age 21 and continue to be engaged

with personal learning coaches. Learning formats are flexible -

well beyond that in an episodic fashion. The reality is that most

mostly combinations of physical and virtual connection. Learners

learners will continue to engage episodically throughout their

meet regularly face to face in local community-based groups, and

lives, albeit within the informal education pathway program,

also connect in with global virtual communities of practice that

and many will also choose to return and contribute themselves.

reflect both their chosen learning paths and personal interests

Learners and leaders alike, embrace the idea of global

beyond project work. Parents too, are connected with their

citizenship through radical generosity and community-based

children's learning via real-world support channels which operate

learning, as the path to positive futures, instilled as strongly in

asynchronously, together with community members who operate on

them as the power of their own agency.

a rotating basis, either as local connection points to provide context, guidance and support within communities, or domain masters who provide specialist support within their fields of expertise.

body of work which incorporates both node-driven project work and external curiosity-driven passion projects. Education is no longer structured into primary and secondary grade groups with

There is no edtech industry to speak of; but many students

a definitive end. From age 14; learners' education pathway engagement time decreases marginally

participate in the Critical Digital Futures Foundation (CDFF), made

each year - as they connect with industry, government or thinktanks to supplement their bodies of

up of both local and global nodes, which interact with all levels of

work.

industry and government. Curriculum models are digital and

“The world is not a cul-de-sac.”

Paulo Freire

Education for Critical Consciousness

dynamic, offering an ever evolving global playlist of nodes within each learning narrative, where each student is free to choose their own path.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 13

FUTURING TRANSFORMATION SCENARIO

The Relationship of Things (RoT) Agency

At OpenCampus kids create their own interdisciplinary work projects based around personal passions. For some kids

bet:

. . even just finding the passion can be a big step. I think one of the mandates is the selection of one wicked

“for sure”

collaborative challenge project each year . . you know, like water war strategy or climate refugees. But apart from that kids are free to pick almost anything, their learning coaches will help them shape it into something robust and purposeful. They mint these projects as Scholar NFTs, so they have them on-chain as proof-of-work which they can

It's been 10 years since I first started trading in crypto and 8 years since I parted company with what

mod:

to moderate in a

stack for subsequent connections. And by the way . . proof of ‘work’, is whatever learners say it is. Facts.

Following your weird interest to the depths of its complexity is always going to be a more engaging and

NPC:

transformative experience than memorising sonnets. Bet . . I still remember the security protocols I learned when I

character. Someone

something

non-role-playing

lost my first NFT buy to a rug pull. Just goes to show you remember the stuff that was meaningful. Each student

that is ready to

belongs to a series of learning communities-of-practice, much like the unofficial ones I cultivated for myself in the old

opinion

agree with popular

days of discord and slack. From what I can see, despite early misgivings from the NPCs, these OpenCampus hubs

unquestioningly and

have been transformative. They offer a network of different learning mode spaces which learners can access at

what they are told.

various stages of their problem-project pathways; super labs offer powerful physical technology, scientific equipment,

robotic

scale, time period and subject matter imaginable. The government's role has been reduced to community tech Image: AI Midjourney

cap: a lie

forum or to change

creative production and manufacturing facilities, whilst immersive arenas and virtual cells invite exploration at every

The Relationship of Things (RoT)

“yep ok”, "it's on"

infrastructure and device supply. Who would have thought? The good news is that every region in the country has stable high speed internet and the latest fully subsidised laptops which get replaced every three years. We’re all like digital inequity? that’s history man. It's hard to believe . . had I been just a few years younger, that I could have literally

always believes Someone who acts

PFP:

personal profile pic used in spaces like twitter + discord

yapping:

when someone talks

is now called OpenCampus - (the system formerly known as high school), which is almost completely

developed my own path with support from inside the system. Still, I'm not feeling hard done by, there were plenty of

forever to an

unrecognisable. In 2027 a wave of privatisation swept across the educational landscape and more

people in my community who stepped up or reached sideways to scaffold me. Just as I've done for others along the

audience

than 35% of private schools broke ranks with legacy church structures and pivoted to for-profit

way. As for me? . . . I'm a professional writer, can you believe that?! The guy that wouldn’t dox because he was too

models led mostly by, you guessed it . . Big Tech . By the end of 2029, these for-profit schools formed freaked to put out his real name. Yep that guy who pretty much failed English. That's me . . Simon Renstad and now I the Education Commons Collective and in 2031 expanded the Collective worldwide. OpenCampus

get paid to write for a living. Not a salary mind you, it's all attribution splits and networked commerce but it's more

uninterested

white hats:

ethical hacker who uses their skills to identify

reformed as a series of local and international networks. Learning is now available through a series of

than enough. And it's not just about the money. When you work across these web4 platforms like I do, it's the

vulnerabilities

decentralised transparent blockchain-based platforms maintained by community white hats.

acknowledgement from people who have read your work or better still, who have built on it and included you in their

rug pull:

Peeragogy is the dominant educational approach now which doesn't surprise any of us. Content is

creative attribution protocols (with on-chain acknowledgement), that makes you get up in the morning.

developers lure

where fraudulent investors in to

open source and co-created by domain masters and students alike; while learners connect with

what looks like a

personal learning coaches regularly to structure pathways that align with problem-based meta maps.

I'm also a domain master for OpenCampus; I work across three areas - mostly Crypto, NFT design and lately, a

These meta maps eventually form pathways towards earlywork opportunities (what we used to call

new area I'm calling the Common Arts Collective. I co-create domain knowledge and problem-based meta maps

project and then

careers), but unlike the school I went to, there's no age limit and people tend to get into it early

with the hardcore students who are really into it; I hold regular digital spaces and physical meetups with students

funds.

nowadays. Besides, work doesn't mean what it used to. The idea of focusing your final school years

and learning coaches all over the world. All paid for by OpenCampus which is pretty rad. There's a couple of guys

doxxing:

training for a job with somebody else feels kind of ridiculous now. Like the education version of an old

in my crypto class who are out of this world . . they're teaching me stuff that would blow your mind. One of them

revealing your own

school "prepper"

is like sixteen I think and the other is only twelve. It's brilliant. That's the kind of stuff that makes you smile. . I used

identity

.

to tell my mum I was a pioneer, and unbeknownst to me, I might actually have been right. Facts.

lucrative new disappear with the

or someone's real

facts: the truth

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 14

VISIONING CASCADING IMPLICATION MAPPING

Technology companies have privatised schools for profit.

EXPLORING THE IMPLICATIONS EMERGING FROM

A TRANSFORMATION SCENARIO We use the Futures Wheel to map cascading implications that may emerge from the possible future scenarios we develop. Here we explore a broad range of cascading impacts for consideration within the transformation scenario.

These Future Wheels are based on emergent ideas

The 4 emergent changes described here; whilst taken

developed in the Transformation scenario - The

from the transformation scenario and thus firmly

Relationship of Things (RoT). Here we explore the potential positioned in the future, are not entirely unrealistic as cascading implications of 4 potential shifts which emerged the seeds of these emerging changes are in fact, from the Transformation scenario - The Relationship of

already visible today. The Futures Wheels enable us

Things (RoT). They include1

to explore the cascading implications and identify the

Technology companies have privatised schools for

challenges and opportunities these shifts present, and how they interrelate within the education system, so

profit$ Educators have bifurcated into domain masters and

that we might take the next steps in determining how best to move toward possible preferred futures.

learning coaches$ Curriculum has been replaced with problem-based meta maps$ Learners’ work is minted as ‘scholar NFTs’ on-chain.

Note: These Future Wheels are presented in high resolution and can be viewed by enlarging the document size.

Educators have bifurcated into domain masters and learning coaches.

Curriculum has been replaced with problem-based meta maps.

Learners work is minted as ‘scholar NFTRs’ on-chain.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 15

VISIONING

IMPLICATIONS WITHIN A NEW SYSTEM

KEY IMPLICATION MAPPING

Note: This implication map is presented in high resolution and can be viewed by enlarging the document size.

IMPLICATIONS MAPPED TO TWO KEY FOCAL ISSUES

INDIVIDUAL

CRITICAL ISSUES POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF A

Proof-of-work becomes the cost of entry for all employment.

Education ‘proof-of-work’ records become the most important human asset

Creative global scholarship becomes the token for connection to networked communities.

Divisions emerge as historical records create disparity between young learning graduates.

Learners’ work is minted as ‘scholar NFTs’ on-chain.

Education becomes ‘employment preparation’

Learners’ education pathways recorded on-chain.

Scholar NFTs create new market framing as tokens of work-inprogress scholarship.

Collaboration in the flow of work emerges as core signal of value

Learners participate in the attribution economy, building on the work of others & enabling their work to be built on shaping intellectual generosity & respect as core beliefs in a web3-orientated worldview.

Learners become autonomous agents

Emergence of 3 social classes: - techno-capitalists - social citizens - off-gridders

Learner data privacy becomes a critical human rights issue.

Learner data privacy becomes a critical human rights issue.

The Relationship of

Increased education system efficiency + impact.

Co-operative Post-capitalist system emerges.

H1

H2

A POST-NORMAL TRANSFORMATION SCENARIO FOR 2033

Increased learner agency

New knowledge commons ownership models emerge.

Education system becomes selfinnovating in response to feedback loops.

The development of personal and collective agency through passion, curiosity and connected

Education’s purpose redefined with development of agency + identity at the core.

experiences locates learning in

Reduction in educational disparity

the flow of agency building, H1

H2 The rise of OffGridders

Advanced pedagogy Increased education system innovation

Educators have bifurcated into domain masters and learning coaches.

Advanced educational psychology focus

Issue #

Emergence of 3 social classes: - techno-capitalists - social citizens - off-gridders

Dismantling of national education management

Graduates shaped to favour tech careers.

Technology companies have privatised schools for profit.

education policy.

Advanced educational psychology focus

Higher levels of learner engagement

Conflict over education leadership

Tech becomes political force

Increased retention rates + education quality

Increasing STEM focus

Massive deficit in critical

privatised schools

of new social classes characterised by a willingness (or not) to participate in this new human data economy

Most Provocative Implications

Emergence of 3 social classes: - techno-capitalists - social citizens - off-gridders

Most Important Implications

Key Focal Issues

The further politization of education

H1

Decline of non-tech related industry + increasing unemployment

H2

Increased

global tech competitiveness

Increased learner inequality

Education ‘proof-of-work’ records become the most important human asset.

Learners’ education pathways recorded onchain.

Individualism rises

Increased digital surveillance and data collection.

thinkers

Higher cost of entry to Libertarianism becomes the dominant worldview

Creation of 2nd class citizens ‘stuck’ in Govt. schools

Proof-of-work becomes the cost of entry for all employment.

Govt.will have to subsidise Tech education

Govt.will have to subsidise Tech education

Higher cost of entry to

shared experience.

Divisions may emerge as historical records create disparity between young learning graduates.

Two-speed education system

Cultural Homogenization Loss of Foundational Pedagogies

relationship, community and

A potential implication may be the emergence

Increased personalised learning, generalization + specialization skills

Big Tech will shape

2

This scenario surfaces risk around education being reinforced as ‘employment preparation’, inviting a dominant culture of system-focused achievement - the very element, the legacy system seeks to disconnect from.

Advanced educational psychology focus

alongside social connection,

H3

Dual model supports expertise & personal learning (self) development

Challenging power dynamics b/w domain masters + coaches across national & global education landscape.

Things (RoT)

H3

Learner -led learning stimulates innovative capability building

Learning mapped to ability, style Increased learner engagement & approach

KEY CHANGES

Two-speed education system

Education system bifurcates into two schools of thought - global citizenship and social responsibility vs economic interests.

Co-creation of educational framework

Increased depth of subject matter expertise

TRANSFORMATIVE SCENARIO

Increased social responsibility & connection with the world.

Increase in interdisciplinary learning

Problem-based Projects invite deeper ownership

H3 Education system bifurcates into two schools of thought - global citizenship and social responsibility vs economic interests.

The reshaping of the education model as an explicitly two-speed system represents one of the most critical issues in this transformation scenario.

Co-creation becomes commonplace amongst all participants in the system.

Curriculum has been replaced with problem-based meta maps.

H2

Issue # 1

Industry-driven learning becomes dominant force of influence.

Dominant culture of system-focused achievement emerges.

NFTs attribution records become living token of peer collaboration.

H1

privatised schools

Dismantling of welfare policies

Breakdown of

collective community

Increased learner inequality

By consolidating the key

H3 Citizens may opt out of education.

implications from the 4 Future Wheels we can identify the cross impacts of these emerging shifts and the most critical issues this scenario presents.

Less operating transparency.

Creation of 2nd class citizens ‘stuck’ in Govt. schools

SYSTEM

Less operating transparency

Increased digital surveillance and data collection

System becomes MORE data-driven

Citizens may opt out of education

Two-speed education system

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 16

DESIGNING The challenge with a significant proportion of schools being privatised for-profit by

B

ig Tech, is that it partially

reshapes the system, leaving a two-speed education system in its wake. This is problematic for two reasons

KEY CHALLENGE SUMMARY

It reinforces the bipolarity

:

of legacy power, influence and connection dynamics that might otherwise be

reshaped by a wholesale multipolar educational system that surfaces increased international connectivity and

cross-system collaboration.

KEY CHALLENGE # 1 > Two-speed education system.

B

ig Tech’s privatisation of a proportion of schools (leaving a proportion of govt.

schools within the legacy system) sees that any possible

‘

transformation future’ surfaces within a bipolar world

context where the local tensions between dominant political and economic systems continue to interact with In addressing the genuine transformation of education as a complex system; we are invited to consider

partially reformed

what can only be, a opportunities for innovation and rebirth beyond the current political, economic, social and cultural discourse.

influence and agency) would be Attempting to reimagine education within the context of legacy worldviews, binds us to the very structural

education system.

distributed throughout z

system likely further increases the politi definitions which we seek to break free of. networked value

U

nlike a multipolar system where power ( connection,

the system, the bipolarity of the two-speed education

ation of education, and makes wholesale decentralisation and

impossible.

Edtech’s “progress or success” to date, rests squarely on its ability to provide solutions to current urgent

challenges within the existing frame (a need for technology integration, balanced with increasing

It further amplifies inequality

as a system feature.

B

y partially reshaping the the old system, we are left with a

administration, resource shortages and remote requirements). A frame in which few other alternatives are vacuum through which this damaging dynamic will continue to develop. Technology, future work, culture and life

being offered.

is changing exponentially

As we consider the most critical issues surfaced in the Transformation Scenario; it is useful to remind continue, to

disrupt

faster

than the pace of education reform.

O

n every front technology is and will

the status quo - not just within a learning or work space, but within modes of connection,

ourselves that the existing framing of education’s challenges originates from a historical, locally constructed communities of practice, pathways to agency and identity, and learning as part of the transformative social

wellspring within which the worldviews that frame our understanding of education includem connective process.

L

Knowledge as mostly singular & statiy

L

Learning as lineak

J

ust as children cannot be controlled through authority alone, or forced to learn without personal enrolment . .

L

L

nor can we ignore the disruptive change emerging elsewhere.

Technology as tooc

Curriculum as pathwa_ education, in the broadest sense (including informal

L

+

The complex adaptive system that is

formal, school

+

non-school),

will continue to change and

Assessment as the best measurement of progresv respond to the external global environment, whether schools innovate or not. As we see in the younger

L

Improved educational productivity as success

generation already playing at the edges of these futures;

Accepting that these beliefs are localised historical worldviews rather than objective neutral standpoints, it

generate their own self-organi

follows that discussions around pedagogical adaption and technology integration become increasingly

form

z

non-linear interactions are building scale and will

ing patterns, eventually re-organi

z

/

ing and

or initiating system change

in some

.

moot. Which is not to say that pedagogy itself is unimportant, but rather . . it is necessarily not the only

starting point nor pathway to a rigorous future-focused learning experience.

These emergent changes will surface and change will continue, whether the individual components (legacy

schools) change or not. This is the nature of complex adaptive systems. If we accept this; then we accept that

At this stage of the project in addressing the most critical issues and potential options moving forward; it's

the risk of radically rethinking education and considered experimentation is no greater than the alternative. That

worth remembering that the reframe of the problem I seek to address is the one that reflects our new

there are no

understanding of this future system.

order and future chaos, that we can hope to reshape the system with both the stability

The possible imagined futures then, represent possibilities which are

‘

safe’ bets. It is only by embracing the uncertainty that exists between our ideas about historical

+

defined by how we choose to define the question. That is: How might we reconceptualise education to

potential futures demand.

better prepare our students for possible futures?

In short; reimagining the education system is not something we can do by halves.

flexibility that our

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 17

DESIGNING

KEY CHALLENGE SUMMARY

KEY CHALLENGE # 2 > The Rise of Off-Gridders.

In the transformative scenario, the converging of several key

A potential implication may be the emergence of new social

drivers of change will potentially create internal system volatility

classes characterised by a willingness (or not) to participate in

and risk for many of its participants. The takeover of a

this new human data economy. Here we imagine the possible

significant proportion of schools by Big Tech sees existing

rise of:

(predominantly) tech-centric issues around privacy and security

migrate into the education space.

Assumptions around

decreased operating transparency and data-driven operations

Techno-capitalists

Those content to roll with the system to full advantage.

elevate concerns around data security and data privacy.

Social Citizens

The recording of learner pathways on-chain amplifies concerns

around historical record keeping and digital privacy, especially

for young learners as they find their way. On-chain learner

records offer the potential for deeper

participation in the

Those who focus their work and activity on-chain around

collaboration and connection, ignoring the increasing tendency

toward system ‘success’ metrics or employment-focused

activity.

attribution economy, building on the work of others & enabling

their work to be built on - shaping intellectual generosity &

Off-Gridders

Those who reject increased data transparency and perceived

respect as core beliefs in a web3-orientated worldview.

on-chain surveillance as determinants of future worth. They The potential development of new market framing as ‘

“Privacy is not an “option” and it

S

cholar

NF

Ts’ become tokens of ‘work-in-progress’ and education

may revolt and opt out of education altogether, going ‘Off-Grid’

in a rejection of this new world order.

‘proof-of-work’ become important individual assets -

shouldn’t be the price we pay for getting on the internet”.

foreshadows a darker underside where ‘proof-of-work’

In this scenario, learner data privacy becomes a critical human

becomes the cost of entry for employment. This scenario

rights issue and must be addressed.

underbelly surfaces risk around education being reinforced as Gary

Kovacs

‘employment preparation’, inviting a dominant culture of

system-focused achievement - the very element, the legacy

system seeks to disconnect from.

D

ivisions may emerge as

historical records create disparity between young learning

graduates.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 18

DESIGNING KEY RECOMMENDATION # 1

How best to prepare young people for the world ahead so that they might find a purposeful place within it, to connect, contribute and participate as global citizens?

CRITICAL ISSUE # 1

TAKE A MULTPOLAR POSTURE. FAKE IT TIL YOU MAKE IT.

Two-speed Education System

RECOMMENDATION

At each point we must consider: Is this truly disruptive? How are we getting in our own way? Who wins in this scenario and who loses? Which parts make us uncomfortable? Where is the shared vision? Where else might we look for inspiration, innovation or a disruptive reframe?

A Multipolar Posture. Fake it til you make it.

ADAPTIVE CHALLENGE

Radical Acceptance.

Unconventional Experts.

Disruptive Experimentation.

Reflect. Rinse. Repeat. Share. ¿ Requires new learning in order to be addressed.

WHO OWNS IT?

This strategy should reflect a multipolar approach, incorporating both

formal,

informal and external actors that reflect the nature of the challenge. That is to say, the Education Futures should take a

Lab

multipolar

posture, be decentralised, autonomous, technologypositive and community-driven with agency

for all actors,

at its very core.

FIND YOUR PEOPLE

SERIOUS PLAY

THE FIRST 3 EXPERIMENTS

Given the enormity, multi-faceted and complex nature of this task - cultivating a community is critical as you begin this adventure. A solid first step would be to create an Education Futures Thinktank that includes insiders, outsiders, academics, entrepreneurs, students and curious committed strategists (both inside and outside the system) who play from both the centre and the edges.

Identify those key actors who are already working to redefine challenges and redraw boundaries. Consider other projects which have tackled wicked challenges (e.g. South Africa’s postapartheid remodelling through scenarios) and charge each group with the responsibility to develop a series of hypothesis, scenarios and action plans to help us meet the future head on.

After reviewing all the current actors, their networks and participatory communities involved in the imagining, development and dissemination of alternative images of the future - select three small scale projects across the group, the three most impactful projects and scale these up across every school - public and private.

Each group will develop a series of small scale considered experiments that test the edges of their hypothesis. Their experimentation will focus around a small selection of schools, teachers and methodology. They will need funding - redirect govt. funding but also seek private contributions to bolster this think tank with both entrepreneurial input as well as financial support.

These experimental projects should not be destructive to the current system run in parallel. Just as large corporations may ‘incubate’ new ideas within intrapreneurial startup modules inside the larger organization - so too, can new models be incubated within the current system.

It is also critical that Big Tech are deeply engaged with this new process. In order to mitigate lone actors (or industry) fragmenting the existing system further, we need to ensure that they are part of the solution from the beginning. Find the unconventional experts, the committed outliers. Use future-focused structures and modes of operation that reflect the future possibility you seek to create - the focus here is global, self-driven, decentralised participatory network structures and knowledge nodes, that invite a radical rethink of education as a system.

In creating this community of practice, the sum of whose scale and innovation will be far greater than any individual part . . you will start not just to strategise and imagine, but to experience the future possibility ahead of you. Hire industry experts to identify, gather and cultivate deep community connection and start to build an open Knowledge Common as the foundation step. Progress moves at the speed of trust; so get serious about developing real networked relationships with people who make you uncomfortable. Gather up the incredible thinking already being disseminated across the globe, and utilise it to create new worldviews about what and how this new system might emerge.

Share everything. Ask advice. Seek feedback from those who disagree. Find naysayers who push you harder. Consider the core tenets of 21stC skill building and nominate a skilled facilitator to hold each group accountable - are the pushing boundaries, is the group autonomous, merit-driven and most importantly . . are they building resilience by purposely reshaping new parts of the old system?

How are they seeing the future? How are they redrawing boundaries? What conventions have they upheld and which constraints have they ignored? How are they thinking about what ‘success’ or ‘progress’ might look like? What new language is needed to articulate this new emerging landscape?

How would a multipolar posture put a different lens on the ways of working and connecting? How can we incorporate the visions and imagination of Big Tech into our thesis’ about the future? This stage will be as much about development of the self within each person in the group, as development of the system.

Critical requirements during this phase will beÜ Ô Govt. + philanthropy funding for both public and private institutions. This must be a top priority and funded adequately to ensure impactful deployment.

Remember the goal hereí Ô Considerations of access, device and existing levels of digital literacy× Ô Strategic scaffolding + global community building within education, Big Tech, Govt and key actors across a multitude of networks will be critical to this implementation - both for execution and feedback loops× Ô This cultivation of a multi-polar global education futures community will be critical.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 19

DESIGNING KEY RECOMMENDATION #2

THE PROTECTION OF CROWDS CRITICAL ISSUE #2

At each point we must consider: Is this truly disruptive? How are we getting in our own way? Who wins in this scenario and who loses? Which parts make us uncomfortable? Where is the shared vision? Where else might we look for inspiration, innovation or a disruptive reframe?

The Rise of Off-Gridders

A COMMUNAL META-DATA MANIFESTO RECOMMENDATION

The Protection of Crowds.

ADAPTIVE CHALLENGE

We have some work to do.

Requires new learning in order to be addressed.

WHO OWNS IT?

The Government Agency responsible for citizen data protection and privacy (in collaboration with Education Futures Lab leadership) should lead this initiative.

Regulation cannot keep pace with the issues emerging around privacy and security as technology increases exponentially. This first stage involves the development of a series of guiding principles around how learning (and coaching) data should be used. This includes what data is visible and to whom; which data should be recorded onchain and the possible implications of this. It may also recommend a data strategy (and guiding schema) for individuals, learning coaches and domain masters.

The legacy system has introduced technologies and captured data (including learners’ work) with little regard for the ownership, control and management of access to that data from the user POV. Further to that, there has been no consideration of ownership rights (of both coaches and learners) - this transformative scenario is likely to elevate those concerns rapidly.

A Meta-Data Manifesto should acknowledge all data belongs to the user who created it, regardless of circumstance. Likewise, it should seek to decouple from legacy ideas about ‘system efficiency’ and ‘feedback loops’ generated from learner data captured and utilised without permission as it is likely these kinds of frameworks will be looked upon no more kindly than retail chains using data for marketing in the future.

Whilst there is much to be considered, a manifesto is a solid first step towards intentions and guardrails, and will be critical for all actors within the system.

NETWORKED MECHANISMS OF INTENT

THE HUMAN SOLVE

You’ve got your manifesto; here’s where the rubber hits the Off-Gridders’ concerns in this space extend beyond data road. This phase involves the proactive collaborative privacy protocols and provenance records. At heart, these development of global standardised learning metadata concerns revolve around the core idea of human value. How protocols that give consideration toH we value each other, what that looks like and how increasingly F credibility of dat[ networked data systems may become a proxy for those value F governance or compliance (both personal and collectivef equations. Publicly.

F intellectual property and copyrighte F attribution and compensatio_ Just as we seek to decouple the current system from the F immutable content creation as standard

legacy worldviews and mythologies around power and control, productivity and ‘progress’ . . so too must we work Technology solutions should encompass the deliberate and tirelessly to ensure that in scenarios like these, tokens non-deliberate capture of information, how information is represent connection points, flagship marks of collaboration accessible / visible, how it may be queried, stored, analysed and craft . . not value judgements, corporate employment and used.

entry points or filter stage gates.

Web 3's decentralised architecture offers a solution to Limited higher education digital passports aside; the idea that centralised data control and ownership, it enables the everything you’ve worked on during your younger years might decentralization and democratization of data, empowering be used to assess your ‘worth’ or economic value is learners to store and share their data on decentralised understandably frightening. The manifesto and mechanisms networks, and will enable greater ownership and control.

will provide boundaries and stop gaps; but no one feels comforted by the thought that “they can’t . . but they might if Likewise the use of public blockchains will ensure greater they could”.

transparency, security, and simpler data lineage tracking to establish clear chains of custody. Despite these measures, This piece of work won’t be an easy solve nor a quick fix. It there will be a continual stream of issues around will require the building of new narratives around learning, provenance, authenticity, ownership and access control that what it means to progress in your own personal learning will need both proactive approaches where possible, and journey both individually and as part of a global collective. It swift thoughtful responses when not. will be a long process, with many wrong turns and false starts, but even the starting of this process means it matters to you.

And that’s more than we can say for the current system.

JEN STUMBLES | UH MASTERS FUTURES RESEARCH PROJECT, FALL 2023 | 20