B O S T O N C O N D O M A R K E T R E P O RT Q3 2025
CONTENTS
TA B L E O F
Q3 Sales Recap...........................................................................................4 Interest Rates & Sales Comparison....................................................6-7 Q3 2025 Neighborhood Stats............................................................8-9 Top 12 Building Sales.......................................................................10-11 Q3 2025 Sales by Unit Type.................................................................12 Q3 2025 Sales by Price Range.............................................................13 Million Dollar Market..............................................................................14 End of Quarter Inventory.......................................................................15 Market Outlook........................................................................................16
2
DEAR FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES, The Boston condominium market experienced a modest decline in sales activity in Q3 2025, with closings down approximately 4.7% year over year and 10.1% below Q3 2023 levels. While this points to a slowdown in transactional volume, it is important to note that prior-year comparisons were influenced by the continued delivery of Nevins Hill, which alone accounted for 21 closings in Q3 2024 and temporarily inflated historical figures. Developers continue to navigate elevated construction costs and uncertainty surrounding tariffs introduced in Q2 2025, many of which went live during Q3 2025 (notably affecting imports from Canada and China), while others— such as Mexico—remain under negotiation at current rates. Collectively, Mexico, China, and Canada account for approximately 40% of total imported goods. Despite these headwinds, developer sentiment has begun to improve. We are seeing an increase in new inquiries related to product positioning—including location, pricing, and unit mix—for upcoming Boston-area condominium developments. The stock market ended Q3 at new highs, which economists largely attribute to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and continued momentum in the tech and AI sectors. The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut marked a positive step toward improved affordability for prospective homeowners in 2025, reflecting efforts to manage inflation amid shifting economic conditions. It is expected that Q4 will bring additional rate reductions, increasing purchasing power for buyers looking to make a housing change or enter the market for the first time. Inventory increased by just 5.4% compared to the end of Q3 2024. This modest rise in supply has contributed to mild price adjustments and longer days on market. The persistent imbalance between supply and demand continues to weigh on affordability and temper buyer urgency. Looking ahead, we anticipate gradual momentum returning through the final quarter of 2025. Continued incremental interest rate reductions would further support improving conditions for both buyers and developers. We are all watching closely—and with cautious optimism—as 2025 comes to a close and 2026 begins in the months ahead. Our full report provides a detailed quarter-over-quarter analysis comparing Q3 2025 with prior years and highlights emerging opportunities as market conditions continue to stabilize. Navigating an ever-changing landscape together
Janice 3
Q3 SALES RECAP
Number of Sales by Quarter 820 800
803
780 760
758
740 720
722
700 680
Q3 2023
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
Highlights: In the Boston condo market, 2023 continued to post the highest sales across Q1, Q2, and now Q3, driven primarily by the delivery of 566 Columbus and Raffles. Q3 2024 sales were about 4% higher than Q3 2025, largely due to Nevins Hill in Brighton, which delivered units in 2024 and contributed 21 closings in Q3. Approximately 72% of Q3 2025 sales seen in the data came from buildings with fewer than 50 units, no new large building delivered during the quarter. 4
5
HISTORICAL INTEREST RATES Historical Interest Rates Historical InterestBy RatesQuarter By Quarter (Freddie Mac) (Freddie Mac)
8.00% 8.00% 7.00% 7.00%
5.00% 5.00%
Interest Rates
Interest Rates
6.00% 6.00%
4.00% 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Q1
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
Q3
2022
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2024
30-Year Fixed Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Fixed Q1 Q215-Year Q3 Q4
2019
2020
2021
30-Year Fixed
2022
2023
2024
Q1
Q2
Q3
2025
Q1 Q2 Q3
2025
15-Year Fixed
Highlights: Mortgage rates rose modestly quarter over quarter from 6.08% at the end of Q3 2024 to 6.30% by Q3 2025. Higher rates in 2022–2023 corresponded with slower sales, while stabilization around 6–6.5% in 2024–2025 has supported modest recovery, though borrowing costs continue to influence buyer activity and developer timing. Rates have come down from Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, driven in part by the first rate reduction of 2025, which occurred in September. 6
INTEREST RATES AND SALES COMPARISON Interest Rates vs. Number of Sales by Quarter
Interest Rates vs. Number of Sales by Quarter
8.00%
1600
1400
7.00%
8.00%
1600
1200 1400
6.00%
6.00%
5.00%
1000 1200
5.00% 4.00%
8001000
4.00%
800 600
3.00%
600
3.00%
# ofSales Sales # of
# of Sales
Interest Rates
Interest Rates
Interest Rates
7.00%
400 400
2.00%
2.00%
200 200
1.00%
1.00%
0.00% 0.00% Q1 Q1Q2 Q2Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 2019 2019
Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2Q3 Q3Q4 Q4 Q3 Q1 Q1 Q2
2020 2020
# of Sales
2021 2021
# of Sales
Q2 Q3 Q1 Q4 Q2Q1Q3 Q2Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q2Q4 Q3Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q4
2022 2022
30-Year Fixed
30-Year Fixed
2023
2023
2024
2024 2025
0 0
2025
15-Year Fixed
15-Year Fixed
Highlights: Quarterly home sales show a clear inverse relationship with mortgage rates. When 30-year fixed rates were historically low in 2020–2021, sales peaked (e.g., Q2 2021: 1,450 units). As rates spiked above 6.5% in 2022–2023, sales dropped sharply. Modest declines in 2024–2025 supported partial rebounds, highlighting buyer sensitivity to interest rates. It is expected that Q4 2025 sales will show an upward trend as a result of the September 2025 interest rate cut. 7
NEIGHBORHOOD STATS Q3 2024 vs. Q3 2025
BACK BAY
ALLSTON
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
# Sales
84
83
-1%
# Sales
1
4
300%
-24%
Avg Price
$1,904,124
$1,983,042
4%
Avg Price
$580,000
$829,875
43%
1%
Avg $/SF
$1,465
$1,451
-1%
Avg $/SF
$1,398
$1,108
-21%
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
# Sales
20
9
-55%
Avg Price
$776,735
$592,989
Avg $/SF
$709
$717
BEACON HILL Q3 2024
BAY VILLAGE
BRIGHTON Q3 2025
% Difference
CHARLESTOWN Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
80
68
-15%
# Sales
61
53
-13%
# Sales
25
27
8%
# Sales
Avg Price
$1,670,812
$1,620,722
-3%
Avg Price
$694,450
$698,459
1%
Avg Price
$1,060,034
$1,030,349
-3%
Avg $/SF
$1,289
$1,289
0%
Avg $/SF
$795
$692
-13%
Avg $/SF
$864
$881
2%
Q3 2025
% Difference -33%
Q3 2024
FORT POINT
FENWAY
EAST BOSTON Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
Q3 2024
% Difference
# Sales
68
57
-16%
# Sales
25
24
-4%
# Sales
3
2
Avg Price
$709,905
$677,985
-4%
Avg Price
$785,653
$909,258
16%
Avg Price
$1,030,000
$1,187,500
15%
-11%
Avg $/SF
$987
$849
-14%
Q2 2025
% Difference
Avg $/SF
$672
$679
1%
$1,128
$1,003
MIDTOWN
LEATHER DISTRICT
JAMAICA PLAIN Q3 2024
Avg $/SF
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q2 2024
# Sales
78
86
10%
# Sales
3
4
33%
# Sales
21
31
48%
Avg Price
$717,547
$858,451
20%
Avg Price
$786,000
$818,500
4%
Avg Price
$2,646,705
$2,152,597
-19%
Avg $/SF
$645
$640
-1%
Avg $/SF
$775
$874
13%
Avg $/SF
$1,573
$1,373
-13%
Although included in the overall numbers throughout the Q3 2025 report, the following neighborhoods had zero data points in either Q3 2024 or Q3 2025 sales and are not included above: Chinatown, Financial District, South Station, Theatre District
Highlights: In Q3 2025, Boston’s neighborhood trends were mixed. Bay Village posted the largest price gain, rising 43% from $580K in Q3 2024 (one sale) to $829K (four sales), partially skewed by a $1.025 transaction. Allston saw a 55% decline in sales and a 24% drop in average price, largely due to higher-priced 2024 closings at 15 Raymond Street resulting in 20 sales in Q3 2024 versus only 9 sales in Q3 2025. Seaport’s 7% reduction in price from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 is due to a 2024 $20.3M two-unit sale skewing the average. Meanwhile, other neighborhoods saw varied activity, with some posting modest gains and others experiencing lower sales or price declines (which contributed to higher skewing of percentage 8 difference data), further highlighting a market with diverse housing product across neighborhoods and price points.
NEIGHBORHOOD STATS Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025
Q3 2024
SOUTH BOSTON
SEAPORT DISTRICT
NORTH END Q3 2025
Q3 2024
% Difference
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
# Sales
17
20
18%
# Sales
14
18
29%
# Sales
113
125
11%
Avg Price
$843,459
$666,400
-21%
Avg Price
$2,997,286
$2,778,597
-7%
Avg Price
$940,168
$912,750
-3%
1%
Avg $/SF
$795
$846
6%
Avg $/SF
$1,113
$1,032
-7%
$1,744
$1,764
WATERFRONT
SOUTH END # Sales
Avg $/SF
WEST END
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
% Difference
103
80
-22%
# Sales
29
23
-21%
# Sales
10
8
-20%
$1,405,672
$1,734,065
23%
Avg Price
$488,440
$688,500
41%
$1,049
$1,133
8%
Avg $/SF
$632
$676
7%
Avg Price
$1,395,277
$1,237,026
-11%
Avg Price
Avg $/SF
$1,145
$1,147
0%
Avg $/SF
BOSTON 9
TOP 12 BUILDING SALES New Construction Condominium Buildings Actively Selling in 2025
ONE DALTON
ST. REGIS
Back Bay - 1 Dalton Street
2019
Year Built
171
Total Units
$6,240,060
Average Sales Price
159
Number Sold/UAG
Seaport - 150 Seaport Boulevard
93%
Percent Sold/UAG
$2,621
Average $/SF
RAFFLES
Back Bay - 430 Stuart Street
2023
Year Built
131
Total Units
$3,970,611 Average Sales Price
125
Number Sold/UAG
95%
Percent Sold/UAG
$2,515
Average $/SF
2022
Year Built
114
Total Units
$4,668,808 Average Sales Price
66
Number Sold/UAG
58%
Percent Sold/UAG
$2,492
Average $/SF
WINTHROP CENTER
Downtown Crossing - 240 Devonshire Street
2023
Year Built
317
Total Units
$3,458,102 Average Sales Price
123
Number Sold/UAG
39%
Percent Sold/UAG
$2,082
Average $/SF
THE SUDBURY
Downtown - 110 Sudbury Street
2021
Year Built
55
Total Units
$4,616,905 Average Sales Price
39
71%
Number Sold/UAG
Percent Sold/UAG
$2,070
Average $/SF
THE ARCHER
Beacon Hill - 45 Temple Street
2020
Year Built
62
Total Units
$3,360,283 Average Sales Price
54
Number Sold/UAG
87%
Percent Sold/UAG
$1,582
Average $/SF
Highlights: Initial closings continued in Q3 at St. Regis (4), The Sudbury (1), Raffles (3), Winthrop Center (5), The Archer (1), 1515 Commonwealth (7), Trimount Place (4), and The Parker (2), totaling 27 market-rate closings. At the end of Q3, The Ritz-Carlton Residences still show 11 homes under agreement on MLS, unchanged from Q2 2025. As closings proceed in the coming months, we will gain a clearer picture of pre-sales—including off-market transactions—and final sales prices. Notably, St. Regis, affected by construction delays and slow sales, was transferred to Cottonwood Group in August. 10
TOP 12 BUILDING SALES New Construction Condominium Buildings Actively Selling in 2025
THE QUINN
South End - 380 Harrison Avenue
2021
Year Built
101
Total Units
$1,848,907 Average Sales Price
95
Number Sold/UAG
94%
Percent Sold/UAG
$1,537
Average $/SF
TRIMOUNT PLACE
South Boston / 267 Old Colony
2025
Year Built
55
Total Units
$916,801
Average Sales Price
27
Number Sold/UAG
$967
49%
Percent Sold/UAG
Average $/SF
ECHELON I & II
Seaport - 133 & 135 Seaport Boulevard
2019/20 Year Built
447
Total Units
$1,749,730 Average Sales Price
431
96%
Number Sold/UAG
Percent Sold/UAG
$1,676
Average $/SF
THE PARKER
Theatre District - 55 Lagrange Street
2022
Year Built
168
Total Units
$713,695
Average Sales Price
11
98
Number Sold/UAG
58%
Percent Sold/UAG
$1,165
Average $/SF
1515 COMM AVE
Brighton / 1515 Commonwealth Ave
2025
Year Built
102
Total Units
$1,001,951 Average Sales Price
54
Number Sold/UAG
53%
Percent Sold/UAG
$1,116
Average $/SF
THE RITZ-CARLTON RESIDENCES Downtown - 682 Atlantic Avenue
2025
Year Built
166
Total Units
$2,780,000 Average UAG Price
11
Number UAG
7%
Percent UAG
$2,122
Average UAG $/SF
SALES BY UNIT TYPE Total Sold & Average Sales Price
Q3 2024 Sold
Q3 2024 Average Sales Price
Q3 2025 Sold
Q3 2025 Average Sales Price
% Difference Sold QOQ
% Difference Average Sales Price QOQ
Studio
33
$514,295
17
$560,000
-48%
9%
1 Bedroom
204
$684,760
192
$717,821
-6%
5%
2 Bedrooms
369
$1,132,175
366
$1,094,105
-1%
-3%
3 Bedrooms
130
$1,783,240
124
$1,986,894
-5%
11%
4 Bedrooms
21
$2,409,310
23
$2,322,478
10%
-4%
7 Bedrooms
1
$20,348,000
0
$0
TOTAL
758
Unit Type
722
Highlights: In Q3 2025, total sales declined 5% to 722 units. Studio and two-bedroom homes saw small price changes, while one-bedroom homes rose 5% in average price. Three-bedroom homes drove growth with an 11% price increase despite a slight drop in sales. Four-bedroom sales increased 10% but average price softened 4%. The absence of a seven-bedroom two-unit combination sale from Q3 2024, previously $20.3M at The St. Regis, contributed to decreased upper-end pricing. 12
SALES BY PRICE RANGE Q3 2024 vs. Q3 2025
Highlights: The most notable drop in home sales between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025 occurred in the $1.5M–$1.99M range, which fell 36% compared to the prior year. Sales of homes under $1M declined slightly, while the $1M–$1.49M segment saw a modest increase, reflecting steady demand in this price range. Luxury sales remained relatively stable, with $2M–$2.99M homes up slightly and $3M+ homes showing a small decline. Overall, the data points to a selective market with mid-tier home sales softening while the high-end segment remained resilient. Q3 sales, when compared to Q2 sales each year, continues to be consistently down 8-10% from its Q2 seasonal high. Historically, Q2 is the busiest time of year for real estate transactions.
Sales by Price Range Q3 2024
Q3 2025
+- Change
< $1M
480
459
-21
$1M -$1.49M
133
141
8
$1.5M-$1.99M
67
43
-24
$2M-$2.99M
42
47
5
$3M+
36
32
-4
Total
758
722
-36
Price Range
Q3 2024 SALES BY PRICE RANGE
5%
5% 9%
Q3 2025 SALES BY PRICE RANGE
6%
4% 64%
6%
-
<$1M $1M - $1.49M $1.5M - $1.99M $2M - $2.99M
18%
Q3 2024 SOLD
$3M+
20%
63%
13
Q3 2025 SOLD
MILLION DOLLAR MARKET
506
480
459
200
176
62
Q3 2023
59
Total Sales 803
184
42
Q3 2024
36
Total Sales 758
47
32
UNDER $1M $1M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M+
Q3 2025
Total Sales 722
Highlights: Homes priced under $1M saw a slight drop in volume in Q3 in both 2024 and 2025 but maintained a stable share of total sales at 63.6%, reflecting consistent demand in the entry-level segment. Mid-range homes ($1M–$1.99M) experienced modest cooling but remained slightly above Q3 2023 levels. Higher-priced properties ($2M and above) accounted for just 10–11% of sales in 2024 and 2025, down slightly from 2023, indicating reduced activity at the top end of the market. Overall, the data suggests a selective market with steady entry-level demand and a slight reduction in high-end sales in 2024 and 2025.
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END OF QUARTER INVENTORY By Price Range ($500K+) 9/30/24
9/30/25
Number of Listings
Avg. Days on Market
Number of Listings
Avg. Days on Market
$500,000 - $599,999
41
57
78
64
$600,000-$699,999
92
68
91
58
$700,000-$799,999
65
75
103
88
$800,000-$899,999
82
61
69
52
$900,000-$999,999
54
82
55
70
$1M-$1.49M
179
70
175
80
$1.5M-$1.99M
82
105
88
94
$2M-$2.49M
58
85
50
90
$2.5M-$2.99M
52
84
42
92
$3M-$3.99M
49
112
47
124
$4M-$4.99M
21
104
26
131
$5M-$9.99M
54
136
55
154
Over $10M
22
261
18
251
851
Avg. 87
897
Avg. 89
Median Price:
$1,249,000
Median Price:
$1,150,000
Average Price:
$2,207,827
Average Price:
$2,068,892
Total Properties
Highlights: At the end of Q3 2025, Boston’s housing inventory increased 5.4% year-over-year to 897 listings, while average days remaining relatively stable. Median and average prices declined to $1.15M (8%) and $2.07M (6.3%), respectively, suggesting either a higher share of lower-priced homes or sellers adjusting expectations. Entry-level and lower-mid-tier homes ($500K–$799K) saw the largest inventory gains, while luxury listings ($3M+) experienced longer market times. Overall, the combination of a slight increase in inventory, fairly stable days on market, and softening median and average price points indicate a slight shift in a positive direction for a buyer. 15
THINGS TO WATCH AS WE NEAR THE END OF 2025 – BOSTON CONDO MARKET OUTLOOK The Boston condominium market experienced a modest decline when comparing Q3 2025 to Q3 2024 and a more pronounced decline relative to Q3 2023. This softening was driven by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates (despite a single rate cut in September 2025), and the fact that Q3 typically falls within a seasonally slower period for transactions. Looking ahead, we anticipate additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in Q4 2025, which could help the year close on a more positive note. 1. Market Resilience Boston’s condo market continues to benefit from a strong employment base and stable buyer demographics. The enactment of many new tariffs in Q2 2025 and the finalization of remaining tariffs affecting Canada and China in Q3 may help stabilize construction supply chains and development pricing. As costs begin to stabilize, the key question becomes whether pricing will realign with buyer expectations by year-end—or whether affordability constraints will continue to temper momentum. 2. Interest Rates Interest rates edged slightly lower from the end of Q2 2025 to end of Q3 2025 following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point cut in September 2025. Market focus has now shifted to Q4 sales/closing activity to assess the impact of that long-awaited cut, which occurred in the final month of Q3. Both buyers and developers are closely watching the October and December Federal Reserve meetings in hopes of additional reductions. Continued rate cuts could bring buyers off the sidelines and encourage developers to restart delayed projects or begin new ones. The key question remains: will the Fed provide enough relief to unlock the next growth cycle? 3. Inventory Levels Inventory remains low by historical standards—still under six months of supply—though up approximately 5% year over year and slightly down from Q2 levels. Rising days on market and modest price adjustments point to a more balanced environment. The question for Q4 is whether constrained inventory and softer pricing will be enough to drive increased closings, or if sellers will need to revisit pricing more aggressively. 4. Buyer Engagement Sales volume declined year over year in Q3 2025, placing buyer psychology front and center. Will demand return out of necessity, or will buyers remain highly selective—prioritizing location, lifestyle, and long-term investment value over short-term market conditions? 5. Upcoming Developments Several developments that were previously paused amid economic volatility may begin to reactivate. A notable example is 1515 Commonwealth, which delivered in January and recorded 13 closings in Q2 2025 and 7 closings in Q3 2025. As developer confidence improves, additional new construction opportunities may emerge for buyers seeking modern product. 6. Under Agreement Volume At the end of Q3, approximately 110 homes were under agreement across select neighborhoods—roughly in line with Q3 2024 levels. Many of these represent presales in new developments that will be reflected in closings in later quarters. In addition, “shadow sales” not captured in MLS data may signal stronger demand than public metrics suggest. Final Thought The remainder of 2025 points toward cautious, incremental progress. Market outcomes will hinge on interest-rate policy, renewed developer activity, and whether buyers view this moment as an opportunity—or choose to wait for clearer signals. Subscribe to the JDA Q3 2025 Boston Condo Market Report as we navigate a dynamic real estate market in 2025 and beyond—together.
STAY INFORMED
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WORKS CITED
This report’s Urban Data Neighborhoods include: Allston, Back Bay, Bay Village, Beacon Hill, Brighton, Charlestown, Chinatown, East Boston, Financial District, Fort Point, Jamaica Plain, Leather District, Midtown, North End, Seaport District, South Boston, South End, South Station, The Fenway, Theatre District, Waterfront, and West End. Data includes publicly available sales and listings from MLS and Registry of Deeds.
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JANICE DUMONT Founder & CEO 508.277.7707 jdumont@jdadvisors.com
JENNIFER FRIZZELL VP of Data Science & Strategy 781.608.5887 jfrizzell@jdadvisors.com
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