Juan Guaidó… Good or Bad? You Decide

Chloe Hockfield, ’24

The United States of America is famous for engineering modern democracy; however, the U.S. recognizes a dictator as Venezuela’s leader over its elected President. On January 23, 2019, a member of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared himself acting President, taking control of Venezuela’s government. For the past three years, Guaidó has been recognized by many countries, the U.S included. While dictatorship is usually the worst way to gain control of a country, in this case, it is okay because of the controversy on the legitimacy of the elected President, the support of other democratic countries, and the positive impact on all Venezuelans.

Being a democracy, America was right to withhold recognition of President Maduro because he took away others’ voices and limited the democratic power in Venezuela. Venezuela’s elected President was put in office in April of 2013. President Maduro won by 1.6% of the votes, and many opposing parties said that the poll was not fair and other candidates were banned from running while some were thrown in jail or forced to flee the country.1 That year, the election poll had the lowest turnout with only 46% of citizens casting their vote.2 A large percentage of the population was upset about Maduro becoming the President and wanted an interim president who would listen to the people’s views instead of silencing them. Not only was he elected in 2012, but Maduro was re-elected into office for another six-year term in May of 2018 in just as equally controversial polls.3 His re-election was not recognized by the opposition-controlled National Assembly - which said that the Presidency was vacant. Later that year, on January 23, 2019, Juan Guaidó declared himself acting president of Venezuela with the support of the National Assembly.4 The National Assembly is a democratically elected group that supports Guaidó, and America is following in their footsteps by supporting Guaidó as interim President. Once again, Maduro proved himself to be a threat to Venezuela’s democracy as he tried to undercut Guaidó’s legitimacy by trying to get Luis Parra elected as the Assembly’s president in January of 2020. Maduro went as far as to have military forces stop opposing parties from participating in the vote.5 Most of the world’s democratic countries, the United States included, said the results were illegitimate and that they had no reason to believe that Maduro would oversee a fair election.6 Now, an elected official has lost control of the country he had unrightfully become the leader of, and Venezuelans should be able to feel safe under the power of President Guaidó. America’s support in Guaidó gives support to its citizens who know how valued democracy is. While some may say that Guaidó is a dictator taking away the democratic rights to vote for a President, he proves to protect Venezuelans from the unsafe conditions that President Maduro has put them in and restores democratic rights that were taken away.

Not only is the elected President affected, but so are all other democratic countries that are witnessing these events unfold in Venezuela. Donald Trump has previously recognized Juan Guaidó as the President of Venezuela and is showing America’s support in his rise to Presidency, and president Biden has continued to recognize Guaidó. The U.S had started sweeping sanctions on Venezuela but has failed to drive Maduro from office. Instead of weakening Maduro, this attempt provides him with a scapegoat to blame for the condition of Venezuela’s economy.7 Trump’s failed attempt has given the opposite effect by driving Maduro’s regime closer in alignment with Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing, providing him with many more needed allies.8 Other countries being forced to take sides are impacted as their citizens watch the events unfold, and people start talking about if their government made the right decision. More than fifty countries recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela, including the U.S, Canada, and Columbia.9 In contrast, other countries like Russia and China, which are known as historical allies with an economic interest in Venezuela, have stood by President Maduro and his right to lead Venezuela.10 But the difference in support is shown through the fact that less than twenty countries initially recognized President Maduro while Guaidó had over fifty countries who initially supported him.11

Before taking office in January 2021, U.S secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke up about America’s views on the intense citation and called elected President Maduro a “dictator” and said he would continue Trump’s policy of recognizing Guaidó as the interim president. Supporters of Guaidó have labeled Maduro, a dictator who rigged his 2018 re-election. They say that Maduro has clung to power by persecuting rivals which put surrounding countries in a sticky spot when deciding who to support.12 Democratic countries have to use their own judgment to decide who is in the right and if Guaidó stepping in was necessary to protect Venezuela. These countries also must carefully choose if they do not want to support a candidate and step out of the argument altogether. While the U.S has done a great job demonstrating its support of Guaidó, one can only wonder if its attempts to drive Maduro from power are doing more harm than good, and they should stop what they are doing.

Surrounding countries may be impacted by the events unfolding in Venezuela, but no one experiences the dispute more than the people who live there. Venezuela has been circling in a downward spiral for years with a dictatorship that was fuelled by terrible inflation and shortages of food and medicine that have caused more than 5.6 million out of approximately 32 million to flee the country since the crisis of hyperinflation started in 2014.13 For the first time in four years, Venezuela has a monthly inflation rate of less than 50% which is not classified as hyperinflation. Nevertheless, Venezuela continues to have the highest inflation in the world, with poverty going from 87% in 2017 to 96% in

2021.14 According to the U.S government’s congressional research service, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by more than 75% in the past eight years which is the largest economic collapse that did not come from war in over 45 years.15 Many people blamed President Maduro for the economic struggle since he has consistently failed to publish crime statistics and economic data, including monthly inflation statistics. In May of 2021, Transparencia Venezuela proved that the government withheld information and fraudulently altered statistics on the number of people in Venezuela who received Covid vaccines.16 Now, the people of Venezuela should be able to feel safe knowing that the information they receive on the economic status of their home is true and that no one is lying to them about what they deserve to know as citizens.

Even with the help of Guaidó, bringing Venezuela’s economy up will be extremely difficult. Transparency International has given Venezuela a score of 14 out of 100 - zero being highly corrupt and one hundred being very clean - on its Corruptions Perceptions Index. It is ranked number 177 out of 180 countries. On the other hand, the United States has a score of 67 out of 100 and a ranking of 27 out of 180. Being in much better shape than Venezuela, America is able to show its support and help them while Venezuela’s citizens are struggling. According to ACAPS,

“Inside Venezuela, hyperinflation and increased prices have reduced access to food, medicines, and other basic goods, while import restrictions hamper the general availability of goods. In recent years, malnutrition has reached emergency thresholds for children Since 2014, the number of Venezuelans applying under 5, with 50% exhibiting some degree of malnutrition for refugee status has and some 280,000 at increased by 8,000% risk of death due to undernourishment. Pregnant women and people in impoverished parts of the country are also more vulnerable to malnutrition.”17

Since 2014, the number of Venezuelans applying for refugee status has increased by 8,000%!18 With the help of a President who understands what democracy means and with the support of other countries, Venezuela can slowly climb its way out of the hole that Maduro had dug for them.

While faced with these very difficult times, Venezuela needs an ally to turn to and defend its citizens and its President. Interim President Guaidó needs a democratic country to stand up for him and assert his leadership during the intense times of hyperinflation so that the inhabitants of Venezuela can once again feel safe from all of the negative political disagreements happening in their country. Even though some may call it a dictatorship, when looking closer at the root of the problem, it is clear that an interim President is the only way to go because it gives voice to all those suppressed by President Maduro, lets neighboring countries show their support, and gives the citizens hope for a brighter future in Venezuela.

1 “Venezuela crisis: How the political situation escalated,” BBC News, August 12, 2021, Accessed November 28, 2021, https:// www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877. 2 “Freedom in the World 2022 Venezuela,” Freedom House, Accessed May 17, 2022, https://freedomhouse.org/country/venezuela/freedom-world/2022. 3 “Venezuela’s Guaido, US top diplomat, discuss ‘return to democracy,’” Aljazeera, March 3, 2021, Accessed February 3, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/3/blinken-guaido-discuss-pressure-against-venezuelas-maduro. 4 “Venezuela crisis: How the political situation escalated.” 5 “Freedom in the World 2022 Venezuela.” 6 “Freedom in the World 2022 Venezuela.” 7 “Venezuela crisis: How the political situation escalated.” 8 Fransisco Toro, “The U.S can’t topple Venezuela’s regime, but it could change its behavior,” The Washington Post, February 3, 2021, Accessed November 28, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/03/venezuela-biden-maduro-regime-diplomacy-human-rights/. 9 Chris Arsenault, “State win for Venezuela’s opposition masks deeper problems,” Aljazeera, January 11, 2022, Accessed January 9, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/11/out-of-options-venezuela-opposition-struggles-to-unseat-maduro. 10 “Venezuela crisis: How the political situation escalated.” 11 “Freedom in the World 2022 Venezuela.” 12 “Venezuela’s Guaido, US top diplomat, discuss ‘return to democracy.’” 13 Arsenault. 14 Manuel Herrera, “Will Venezuela’s economy recover in 2022?” Al Diá, December 23, 2021, Accessed April 13, 2022, https://aldianews.com/politics/policy/hyperinflation-venezuela. 15 Arsenault. 16 “Freedom in the World 2022 Venezuela.” 17 “Venezuelan Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis,” CDP, Disaster Philanthropy, January 25, 2022, Accessed May 4, 2022, https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/venezuelan-refugee-crisis/. 18 “Venezuelan Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis.”