REAL ESTATE ANALYSES
THE MONTRÉAL OF TOMORROW IS EMERGING TODAY
Mitch Strohminger Guest Columnist
The greying of Greater Montréal is forecast to continue well into the next decade. The importance of the 60+ age cohort in absolute terms will continue to overshadow younger age cohorts for years to come. Already in 2021, roughly 1 in 4, or 24%, of Montrealers were aged 60 and over. By 2030, their share is forecast to grow to 26%. The 15- to 29-year-old cohort is also forecast to see faster growth in the coming years, expanding its share of the region’s total population by around half a percentage point by 2030. The increase in this younger age cohort is due to the coming of age of children whose parents are Generation Xers or Millennials. Other age cohorts are forecast to grow at slower rates, leading to a decline in their importance relative to Montréal’s overall metropolitan popu lation, which is forecast to grow to 4.6 million people by 2030, up from roughly 4.4 million people today. In fact, Oxford Economics forecasts that the population levels of the 30- to 44-year-old and 0- to 14-year-old cohorts are likely to remain constant through most of this decade. The 45- to 59- year-old cohort is forecast to increase slightly faster, as Millennials start to enter later middle-age.
These changes offer glimpses into potential real estate demand dynamics. The most impressive change is the rapid growth of the 60+ age cohort. In 2000, this was the smallest cohort, but by 2016 had grown to be the largest. By 2030, the size of the cohort will likely more than double to 1.2 million people compared to 2000 levels, or an increase of 150,000 persons relative to 2021 levels. This change should continue to support various seniors housing options for years to come, such as retirement communities and skilled nursing facilities.
NEARLY 1 IN 4 MONTREALERS IS OVER 60 YEARS OLD Mitch Strohminger is the CoStar director of market analysis for Québec, where he works in close collaboration with his colleagues to provide information on the Canadian real estate market. Prior to joining CoStar, he worked as a senior economist and then risk manager for Ivanhoe Cambridge. He holds two master's degrees, in urban policy and economics, from the New School in New York.
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE : : JUNE – JULY 2023