2.2 GRANNY DUMPING

1.2 THE SILVER TSUNAMI:

Demographers and economists first used the term ‘silver tsunami’ when the baby boomer generation entered their 60s. The term refers to the increased number of elderly people around the world who are approaching retirement age and the effect that this amount of people needing a place to retire has on residential landscapes. In 2020, the silver tsunami highlights sobering trends (Geber 2020). The baby boomer generation’s influence will create an upheaval to the economy when they leave the workforce (both government and industry), as well as when they downsize and sell their homes during this saturated housing market (Geber, 2020).

Medical technology is rapidly advancing and optimising health, drastically increasing the average person’s life expectancy. Due to the increase in the current population’s life expectancy, the elderly live in retirement longer than ever. Life expectancy among the elderly (60 and older) has risen from 1.1% in 2002 to 3% in 2020 (Statistics South Africa, 2020). This increase in the elderly population will have a drastic impact on the residential landscape of South Africa. This increase will directly affect the demand for suitable living environments for the elderly population (Sauer, 2020).

The latest information available from Statistics South Africa’s (2020) mid-year population estimates reports that the elderly (60 and older) makes up less than ten percent (9.12%) of South Africa’s population – that is, around 5.3 million people. Almost a quarter (24%) of those 5.3 million people, which is the highest percentage of the reported elderly population in South Africa, reside in Gauteng Province.

Estimates claim that by 2030, 10.2% of South Africa’s population will be older than 60 years, and by 2050 the estimate will rise to 16%. Of the projected 75 million people in 2050, roughly 12 million would be ready to retire and need a place to live out the remainder of their lives (IOL, 2020).

This impact on the residential landscape is global. The current significant problem with housing for the elderly is that due to modern consumerist society’s lifestyle choices, the priorities of the younger generations have shifted from the family-centric lifestyles of the past generations and towards accumulating wealth and material objects. This shift in lifestyle has led to the partial abandonment of the elderly in small rooms in retirement homes. These elderly people then develop a sense of worthlessness and rejection and soon succumb to depression, which turns them into husks of their former selves. Architects and designers must approach design challenges in the changing residential landscape and create strategies that could help ease the pressure on the retirement landscape.

FIGURE 1.3: The Silver Tsunami.