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Coastal Q1 Market Report 2026

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LUXURY MARKET REPORT

Q1 Market Report | March 2026

COMMUNITY UPDATES

Wrightsville Beach & Landfall

Wilmington

Carolina & Kure Beach

Topsail Island & Surf City

Ocean Isle & Sunset Beach

Oak Island

Holden Beach

Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, & Hampstead

Southport

Bald Head

Atlantic Beach & Emerald Isle

FORECAST

Spring Market Forecast for 2026

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The North Carolina coastal real estate market entered 2026 with clear signs of transition, as reflected across these first quarter comparisons Following several years of constrained inventory and rapid appreciation, the market is now moving toward a more balanced environment, characterized by increased supply, steady but more selective demand, and varying performance across price points and submarkets From Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach to the Brunswick County and southern coastal communities, active listings have risen notably year over year, giving buyers more choices and easing some of the pressure seen in prior cycles

This growth in inventory is most evident in the $600K–$1M segment, which continues to anchor the market in both availability and transaction volume Markets such as Wilmington, Carolina & Kure Beach, Ocean Isle & Sunset Beach, and Topsail Island all show substantial active listings in this range, alongside strong pending activity that indicates continued buyer engagement At the same time, the $1M–$2M segment remains stable, with consistent though more measured absorption levels Wilmington again stands out as a regional driver, posting strong pending and closed sales in this category, while smaller or more niche markets reflect a narrower buyer pool and longer absorption timelines

Closed sales data across the region suggests a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating In several areas, year-over-year closings have improved, particularly in mid-range price points where relative value continues to attract both primary and second-home buyers However, other markets show flat or slightly declining sales compared to 2025, reinforcing a theme of normalization after the heightened activity of previous years This moderation is not indicative of weakening demand, but rather a shift toward more deliberate buying behavior as affordability, interest rates, and inventory levels influence decision-making

The luxury segment ($2M+) remains the most variable across all coastal markets While inventory has increased in many areas including Wilmington, Wrightsville Beach & Landfall, and Ocean Isle & Sunset Beach closed sales remain limited and inconsistent That said, select markets are seeing encouraging movement, suggesting that wellpositioned, high-quality properties continue to attract buyers even at the upper end Overall, luxury demand persists, but with greater sensitivity to pricing and market conditions

In summary, the first quarter of 2026 reflects a healthier and more sustainable coastal North Carolina real estate market Increased inventory is creating a more competitive landscape, steady pending sales demonstrate continued demand, and closing trends point to stabilization across most segments The market remains driven by mid-range properties, while higher price points require greater patience and strategic positioning As the year progresses, the key focus will be on how effectively the market absorbs this growing inventory and whether demand continues to keep pace across all price tiers

Wrightsville Beach is the furthest eastern part of Wilmington and one of the most popular beaches on the East Coast Just a few minutes inland sits the prestigious Landfall community This is a flagship gated golf course community in Wilmington, situated between Wrightsville Beach and the intracoastal waterway.

The first quarter market reflects a generally stable environment with notable gains in lower price points and continued strength in the luxury segment when compared to both 2025 and 2026 In the $600K–$1M range, closed sales more than doubled from 4 in 2025 to 9 in 2026 (up 125%), while inventory held steady at 9–10 listings The $1M–$2M segment remains the core of the market, though closings dipped from 23 in 2025 to 19 in 2026 (down 17%) after a strong 2025, with inventory rising from 16 to 22, suggesting more competition among sellers The luxury tier above $2M continues to show resilience, with closings increasing from 9 in 2025 to 11 in 2026 (up 22%) and inventory increasing at 23 listings, supported by 9 pending sales Overall, the data points to a market balancing increased supply particularly in the mid-range with strengthening demand at both the lower and upper ends, while the core segment moderates after a peak in 2025

Wilmington is a historic port city along the Cape Fear River that features three gorgeous beaches The historic artistic culture is complemented by the small beach town aesthetic offered by toprated pristine beaches at Wrightsville Beach, historic Carolina Beach, and Kure Beach The art, music, food, architecture, history, and natural beauty keep Wilmington in the running as top places to move in the U S

The Wilmington market reflects shifting dynamics compared to both 2025 and 2024, with inventory tightening in the core segment and demand strengthening in higher price points Active listings in the $600K–$1M range declined from 183 in 2025 to 135 in 2026 (down 26%), yet the segment remains the most active, with 126 closings only a 7% dip from 135 in 2025, which itself was up 12% from 121 in 2024 demonstrating sustained buyer demand The $1M–$2M segment showed notable improvement, with closings rising 55% in 2026 from 2025, reversing the prior year’s decline from 46 in 2024 The luxury tier continues to gain traction, with active listings increasing from 27 to 44 (up 63%) and closings up 21%, building on gains from 2024 Pending sales remain strong across all segments, particularly in the $600K–$1M range with 83 transactions

Overall, the data points to a market transitioning toward stronger performance, with tightening supply in the core price range and improving absorption at higher price points

With its proximity to Wilmington, the ferry to Southport, and the limited inventory of Wrightsville Beach, the Pleasure Island areas of Carolina and Kure Beach have become a highly sought after coastal destination Long known for its relaxed vibe and small-town beach atmosphere, this area’s real estate market has seen major jumps in property values as well as unit sell-through.

The Pleasure Island market in 2026 reflects a clear shift toward higher inventory levels compared to both 2025 and 2024, with active listings rising to 126 in the $600K–$1M range (up 20% from 2025), 39 in the $1M–$2M segment (up 3%), and 12 in the $2M+ tier (up 140%) While supply has expanded, sales activity has softened from prior years Closed sales in the $600K–$1M range declined year over year (from 47 in 2024 and 42 in 2025 to 33 in 2026), while the $1M–$2M segment dipped slightly from 16 in 2025 to 15 in 2026, though still above 2024 levels (11) The luxury segment remains limited, holding steady at just one closing in both 2025 and 2026, compared to 4 in 2024 Pending sales also indicate a slower pace of absorption, dropping from 28 in 2025 to 16 in 2026 in the $600K–$1M range (down 43%), while the $1M–$2M segment improved from 5 to 10 pending transactions, signaling some resilience in the mid-market Overall, the data points to a market adjusting to increased inventory, with demand still present but not keeping pace with the growing number of available listings

Topsail Island is a barrier island almost an hour north of Wilmington Although folklore has it that the island was named Topsail because pirate ships hid behind the island with their topsails visible from the sea, the name came from New Topsail Inlet Topsail Island has long been a vacation spot favorite and Surf City is one of the most popular cities on Topsail Island

The Topsail Island market reflects a sharp increase in inventory compared to 2025, alongside softer sales activity in the core price segments Active listings rose slightly in the $600K–$1M range from 82 to 83, but surged in the $1M–$2M segment from 70 to 83 and more than doubled in the $2M+ tier from 11 to 23, signaling a significant expansion in supply Despite this, closed sales declined in the primary ranges, with the $600K–$1M segment dropping from 38 in 2025 to 21 in 2026 (down 45%) and the $1M–$2M segment falling from 23 to 17 (down 26%), indicating a slowdown in absorption Pending sales show mixed signals, rising from 11 to 17 (up 55%) in the $600K–$1M range, while increasing more modestly from 7 to 12 in the $1M–$2M segment, suggesting some forward momentum despite slower closings The luxury segment improved, with closings increasing from 1 to 4, though overall volume remains limited Compared to 2024, the 2025 baseline had shown strengthening in sales, making the 2026 pullback more notable Overall, the data points to a market adjusting to a rapid rise in inventory, with some demand still present.

Ocean Isle Beach and Sunset Beach are two popular islands in the southernmost corner of North Carolina Ocean Isle was named in 1949 by Virginia Williamson whose husband, Odell Williamson, purchased the land as a resort development project Sunset Beach not only encompasses both a mainland and an island, but it earned its name in 1955 by Manson C. Gore who was impressed by the rare views of the sun setting over the Atlantic Ocean

The market reflects a clear increase in inventory compared to 2025, alongside mixed but generally stable sales trends across price points Active listings rose significantly, increasing 30% in the $600K–$1M range, holding relatively steady in the $1M–$2M segment (37 to 36), and doubling in the $2M+ tier from 12 to 24. Despite the added supply, the $600K–$1M segment showed continued strength, with closed sales rising from 40 in 2025 to 45 in 2026 and pending sales increasing from up 47%, signaling ongoing demand In contrast, the $1M–$2M segment experienced a slight pullback, with closings declining from 17 to 16 and pending activity remaining flat at 11 The luxury segment improved modestly, with closings increasing from 4 to 5 (up 25%), though overall volume remains limited After 2024, 2025 showed some softening in mid-range closings, reinforcing that the 2026 market is stabilizing after prior adjustments. Overall, the data points to a market with expanding inventory being actively absorbed in the primary price tier

Oak Island is one of the larger South Brunswick Islands southwest of Wilmington Oak Island became inhabited in the early 19th century after Fort Caswell was constructed in 1838 It grew slowly, and by the 1930s, it had become a popular beach and hunting destination Today, it is combined with several other towns and Caswell remains a separate entity on the end of the island, mainly in use for conventions and large events

The Oak Island market shows a clear increase in inventory compared to 2025, alongside steady to improving demand Active listings decreased slightly in the $600K–$1M segment by 13% and $1M–$2M by 20%, while the $2M+ segment increased from 5 to 9, reflecting a shift toward more luxury availability. Despite lower inventory in the primary segments, closed sales improved in the $600K–$1M range from 38 to 46 and held steady at 26 in the $1M–$2M segment, indicating strong and consistent buyer demand Pending sales also increased in the $600K–$1M range from 20 to 27 (up 35%), while doubling in the $1M–$2M segment from 7 to 14, signaling continued momentum heading into the next quarter The luxury segment remained limited, with no closings in 2026 compared to one in 2025 Overall, the data suggests a market with tightening inventory in the midrange, strong absorption, and developing luxury market, pointing to sustained buyer demand despite constrained supply

Holden Beach, a favorite South Brunswick Island, was voted number one family-friendly beach several years in a row and remains one of the more restful and residential islands Benjamin Holden in 1756 bought four mainland tracts and the island between his plantation and the ocean and John Holden, Ben's grandson, surveyed a section which he called Holden Beach Resort in 1924.

The market in 2026 reflects a sharp increase in inventory, alongside mixed sales performance across price points Active listings rose significantly, jumping 80% in the $600K–$1M range, increasing from 21 to 23 in the $1M–$2M segment, and surging dramatically in the $2M+ tier from just 1 listing in 2025 to 11 in 2026 Despite this growth in supply, sales in the $600K–$1M segment declined notably, with closings dropping from 11 to 4 (down 64%) and pending sales decreasing from 7 to 4 (down 43%), signaling slower absorption at the lower price point In contrast, the $1M–$2M range showed stability, with closings inching up from 10 to 11 (up 10%), though pending activity softened from 8 to 5 The luxury segment showed improvement, with closings rising from 1 to 3, though overall volume remains limited 2025 showed strengthening in the lower price tier (up 83% in closings), highlighting how the 2026 slowdown at that level represents a shift in buyer activity. Overall, the market is adjusting to a surge in inventory, with steady mid-market demand, emerging strength at the high end, and more cautious conditions in the entry-level segment

Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, and Hampstead are north of Wilmington Porter's Neck and Hampstead are two emerging markets that are developing a robust luxury market, while Figure Eight Island remains one of the region’s flagship upscale communities with some of the most significant coastal estate homes in the Carolinas.

The 2026 market reflects rising inventory alongside generally stable to improving sales trends when compared to 2025 Active listings edged up across all price points, increasing slightly in the $600K–$1M range from 52 to 53, more notably in the $1M–$2M segment from 23 to 36 (up 57%), while the $2M+ tier held relatively steady, easing from 17 to 15 Sales activity showed mixed but overall positive movement: the $600K–$1M segment recorded 31 closings in 2026, down 14% from 36 in 2025, while the $1M–$2M range improved by 14% The luxury segment saw the strongest gain, with closings rising from 5 to 7, a 40% increase year over year Pending sales remain healthy in the $600K–$1M range at 30 transactions, holding steady year over year, while the $1M–$2M segment increased from 5 to 7 pendings (up 40%), indicating continued mid-market momentum Overall, the data suggests a market absorbing increased inventory with stable core demand and growing strength in the higher-end segments.

The southeastern tip of North Carolina has historically been a popular vacation spot for decades The mix of historical significance as one of one of the earliest military settlements at the entrance of the Cape Fear and the coastal beauty has made this area highly desirable Bald Head’s unique atmosphere, exclusivity and ban on cars has also contributed to it becoming a popular destination.

The Southport real estate market reflects a meaningful increase in inventory paired with steady to improving sales activity, particularly in the mid-price range Active listings rose across all segments, reaching 67 in the $600K–$1M range, 25 in the $1M–$2M segment, and 6 in the $2M+ tier, signaling expanded supply compared to 2025 Despite this, demand remains solid, with closed sales in the $600K–$1M segment increasing from 24 to 38 (up 58%) and pending transactions holding strong at 28, indicating continued buyer momentum The $1M–$2M segment remained stable, with closings unchanged at 8 year over year and 7 pending sales, suggesting balanced conditions The luxury segment remains limited, with no closed sales recorded in either year despite a slight increase in inventory and 2 pending transactions in 2026 Overall, the data points to a market with growing inventory being actively absorbed in the primary price tier, steady mid-market performance, and limited but gradually emerging activity at the high end.

The southeastern tip of North Carolina has historically been a popular vacation spot for decades The mix of historical significance as one of one of the earliest military settlements at the entrance of the Cape Fear and the coastal beauty has made this area highly desirable Bald Head’s unique atmosphere, exclusivity and ban on cars has also contributed to it becoming a popular destination.

The first quarter Bald Head Island real estate market reflects a modest but active landscape, with inventory heavily concentrated in the mid- to upper-price tiers Active listings rose across all segments, increasing approximately 200% in the $600K–$1M range (from 2 to 6), 75% in the $1M–$2M segment (from 12 to 21), and 78% in the $2M+ tier (from 9 to 16), signaling a notable expansion in supply. Sales activity was strongest in the $1M–$2M range, where closings climbed 50% year over year (from 6 to 9), highlighting solid demand in the core market In contrast, the luxury segment saw a 25% decline in closings (from 4 to 3), while the $600K–$1M range experienced a 100% drop in sales (from 1 to 0), reflecting limited entry-level movement Pending sales remain light overall, though the $1M–$2M segment posted a 50% increase (from 2 to 3), suggesting some forward momentum Overall, the data points to growing inventory, strengthening mid-market demand, and more tempered conditions at both the entry-level and high-end of the market.

One of the most popular destinations for vacationers, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle rest on North Carolina's northern barrier islands below the Outer Banks Emerald Isle is famous for its pristine, emerald-colored beaches and Atlantic Beach, north of Emerald Isle, is near popular Morehead City and across from the famous historic port town of Beaufort, NC.

The Atlantic Beach and Emerald Isle market in 2026 reflects a noticeable rise in inventory compared to the prior year, alongside steady to improving sales performance across most segments Active listings increased year over year, climbing from 47 to 59 in the $600K–$1M range, from 23 to 42 in the $1M–$2M range, and from 12 to 26 in the $2M+ segment, indicating a more supply-heavy environment Despite this, closed sales held firm or improved: the $600K–$1M and $1M-$2M segment unchanged from 2025, while the luxury tier saw a notable jump from 2 to 5 sales, a 150% increase Compared to 2025, pending activity has softened down from 15 to 7 in the $600K–$1M range and from 10 to 8 in the $1M–$2M segment suggesting a slower pace of absorption as inventory expands Overall, the data points to a market that is transitioning toward more balanced conditions, with consistent mid-market demand and growing momentum in the high-end, even as rising inventory begins to temper the speed of sales

COASTAL MARKET FORECAST

The North Carolina coastal real estate market in the first quarter of 2026 reflects a nuanced shift toward increased inventory, steady to improving demand in select segments, and a continued concentration of activity in mid-range price points Across nearly all submarkets from Wilmington and the Brunswick County beaches to Bald Head Island and Wrightsville Beach active listings have risen year over year, signaling a gradual rebalancing after several years of constrained supply This increase in inventory is particularly notable in core markets such as Wilmington and Carolina & Kure Beach, as well as in traditionally tighter luxury enclaves like Wrightsville Beach & Landfall, where $2M+ inventory climbed to 23 homes

Despite this growing supply, buyer activity remains resilient, though more selective Pending sales are solid across most regions, especially in the $600K–$1M segment, which continues to drive the majority of transactions Wilmington leads the region with 83 pending sales in this range, followed by Ocean Isle & Sunset Beach (44) and Southport (28), indicating sustained demand from primary and second-home buyers seeking relative value The $1M–$2M segment shows more variability, with steady but measured absorption Wilmington again stands out with 28 pending sales, while other markets like Bald Head Island and Holden Beach remain more limited, reflecting a narrower buyer pool at higher price points

Closed sales data reveals a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating In many submarkets, closings in 2026 are either in line with or modestly improved over 2025, suggesting that while demand persists, it is being tempered by affordability constraints and longer decision cycles For example, Oak Island saw an increase in $600K–$1M closings (46 vs 38), and Southport also posted a notable gain (38 vs 24) Wilmington’s $1M–$2M segment also experienced a meaningful rise in closings, indicating renewed strength in upper-mid-tier properties However, several areas including Topsail Island and Carolina & Kure Beach show slight declines in closed sales compared to the prior year, reinforcing the theme of uneven performance across submarkets

The luxury segment ($2M+) continues to exhibit the most variability, with generally low transaction volume but signs of improvement in certain markets Wilmington recorded 17 closings compared to 14 the previous year, and Atlantic Beach/Emerald Isle saw an increase from 2 to 5 sales, suggesting renewed interest at the high end Conversely, some areas such as Oak Island and Southport posted minimal or no closings in this category, highlighting the sensitivity of the luxury market to pricing, inventory quality, and broader economic conditions

Overall, the first quarter of 2026 data points to a healthier, more balanced coastal North Carolina market Inventory expansion is providing buyers with more options, while steady sales activity indicates that demand remains intact The market is increasingly segmented: the $600K–$1M range continues to anchor transaction volume, the $1M–$2M segment shows selective strength, and the $2M+ tier remains opportunistic with pockets of momentum As the year progresses, the ability of the market to absorb rising inventory particularly in higher price points will be a key indicator of sustained stability and future price performance

As the market enters year 5 of the post covid buying wave and Airbnb properties that were bought on 5 year debt are seeing some sellers/investors divest some of the properties in their portfolio, particularly if rental competition has increased The life cycle delays brought on by the Covid period and low interest rates are also starting to see some movement on the inventory side, as people who have aged out of certain sized homes, or put off listing due to low interest rates, are moving into the market in larger numbers despite rates remaining in the 6's

On the positive side, in looking at those nearing retirement age, the top driving factors are all features which should help supply steady buyer activity Most survey respondents to a major bank study mentioned benign weather, outdoor activities and walkability, proximity to water, as key factors in location choices

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CHECK OUT OUR EMERGING MARKET REPORT!

The long history of high demand of the Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach area has led many people to turn to other markets for luxury inventory. To read our most recent report on coastal North Carolina's emerging markets, please visit the link below.

https://bit ly/3rps3PT

Wilmington

527 Causeway Drive, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28480

Bald Head Island

2C Merchants Row, Bald Head Island, NC 28461

Lake Norman

21025 Catawba Avenue, Suite 101, Cornelius, NC 28031

North Shore

350 Morrison Plantation Pkwy, Ste C1, Mooresville, NC 28117

Charlotte

1515 Mockingbird Lane, Suite 900, Charlotte, NC 28209

Asheville

18 S Pack Square, Asheville, NC 28801

Highlands - Cashiers

210 North Fifth Street, Highlands, NC 28741

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Coastal Q1 Market Report 2026 by Ivester Jackson - Issuu