Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Integrated Urbanism Dialoges Đ&#x; On Resilience 30th Sep. – 1stOct. Ain Shams University Contact: iusd@eng.asu.edu.eg

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Session #1

Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA Region • Chair: Fritz Reusswig • Speakers: Mohamed El-Raey What are the main environmental, social and economic challenges affecting urban settlements in the MENA region and what are local symptoms? How do resilient systems look like that meet these challenges? What kind of integrated approaches can be and have been developed in practice? What are the differences between approaches to resilience in Europe and the MENA region?

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

#1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Lecture #1

Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region Chair: Fritz Reusswig Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Hallegatte et al. 2007

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Local. Global. Cities.

• There are no ‚global‘ GHG emissions, only ‚local‘ ones.

• The ‚globality‘ of ‚local‘ emissions is not an ontological, but a systemic property, depending on – the connectivity of the biophysical Earth system – the connectivity of social actions

• Cities account for ~ 3% of the Earth‘s surface, but for > 50% of its population, for > 70% of its GDP, and for 60-80% of GHG emissions ( accounting principles).

• International climate policy (UNFCCC) is based on nation states, facing the freerider problem.

• While cities face the same problem to an even higher extent, many more cities than nation states have adopted local climate policy goals ( USA).

• While London‘s emissions are larger than those of Greece, only Greece, not London is participating in climate negotiations. London‘s Congestion Charge has reduced its GHG emissions at about 15%.

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Per capita emissions from selcted cities 16 14

CO2 tons/cap

12 10 8 6 4 2

Ho u

st P a on lo Al To to ro Sh nto an gh a Pr i ag ue Ro m e Be rli n To St ky o oc kh ol m Ri o Seo d Vi e J ul sh an ak e ap iro at na m Ko lk Sa ata o P Hy au de l o ra ba d Pu n Ch e Ah en m na ed i ab ad Bh op al

0

McCarney 2009 & own calculations

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Federal Ministry of Education

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

Three cities

Federal Ministry of Education

Potsdam

Masdar City

Hyderabad

Inhabitants

160.000

47.500

6.130.000

Annual population growth

0,7%

-

3,2%

Size (km2)

187

6,4

650

Inhabitants/km2

823

7.421

9.430

GDP/Inhabitant/Year â‚Ź

31.300

43.000 (VAR)

2.400 (6.900 PPP)

Local poverty rate

8%

0%

28%

CO2eq emissions (total, Mio. t)

0,867

0

8,4

CO2eq emissions (per capita, t)

5,63

0

1,37

CO2eq emissions (national average)

11

30

1,08 bzw. 1,5

National emissions goal 2050 (per capita)

1-2t

(0) not existing

Not existing

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Some challenges to the MENA region • Climate change ( Heat load, water quantity and quality, sea level rise, weather extremes, ‚climate refugees‘, food provisioning…)

• Very uneven economic and social development • Lack of regional cooperation • Lack of investment in education ( especially girls/young women) • Population growth • Heterogeneous political developments ( authoritarian regimes, different degrees of real democracy, instabilities…)

• Many regional conflicts with international dimensions • Many parts ‚blessed“ with oil & gas; low oil price • Corruption • Weak forms of urban autonomy & governance Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education

MSc Integrated Urbanism & Sustainable Design (IUSD)

Integrated Urbanism Dialogues On Resilience

#1-1 Introduction: Conceptualising Urban Resilience in the MENA region

Resilience • Holisitic, integrative, transdisciplinary • Combines coping strategies/learning with socio-ecological structures and processes ( change management) • ‚External‘ stress/shocks in an highly internalized urban system?

• We cannot praise/optimise the stability of a system before we have met some basic goals of sustainable development ( resilience is no substitute for SD) • The recent political events have demonstrated that destabilisation & change are more important than stability  How can the new democratic momentum be stabilized and used for sustainable progress?

• Combine top-down & bottom-up planning

Federal Ministry of Education

Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation Ministry of Higher Education