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Volume 11 Issue 11 (2020) ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

http://TuEngr.com IMPACTS OF DAYLIGHT ON IMPROVING HEALING QUALITY IN PATIENT ROOMS: CASE OF SHORSH HOSPITAL IN SULAIMANI CITY SOCIAL OR TRADITIONAL WOM: AN INVESTIGATION OF SUCCESSFUL BRAND EXTENSION RECOMMENDATION METHOD FOR PURCHASE DECISIONS EFFECTS OF DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR LONG-LIFE FRUIT TREES ON DIFFERENT ECONOMIC BASES SPACE SYNTAX STUDY FOR VAKKO HEADQUARTERS AND POWER MEDIA CENTER IN ISTANBUL CONSTRUCTION COST OVERRUN RISK ANALYSIS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE: CASE OF A SIX-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING IN THAILAND STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND TRANSFER PRICING RISK WITHIN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN THAILAND FIELD MEASUREMENT AND SIMULATION VALIDATION OF INCIDENT IRRADIANCE ON VERTICAL FACADE IN TROPICAL COUNTRIES

MUGHAL ARCHITECTURAL STYLE IN COLONIAL BUILDINGS IN MALAYA: THE ROLES OF BRITISH ARCHITECTS PRODUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRRIGATED AND RAINFED WHEAT FARMING A PROBE INTO THE TEACHING COMPREHENDED READING TO STUDENTS IN RUSSIA OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE XIX CENTURY EFFECTS OF CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE AND TRUST ON CUSTOMER LOYALTY IN THE FAST-FOOD INDUSTRY OF PUNJAB, PAKISTAN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CORRELATES OF EDUCATION IN THE SLUM POPULATION: AN EVIDENCE FROM KARACHI, PAKISTAN IMPACTS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN BANGLADESH DETERMINANTS OF CUSTOMER CHURN: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS FROM SAUDI ARABIA LEADERSHIP STYLES: RELATIONSHIP WITH ORGANIZATIONAL DISSENT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT MEDIATION ANALYSIS VIA CB-SEM APPROACH LEGIBILITY PATTERN AT A CITY CENTRE OF KUALA TERENGGANU, MALAYSIA FEAR OF CYBER COMMUNICATION THREAT EFFECTS ON ONLINE FREEDOM OF EXPRESSIONS DETERMINANTS OF RETURN ON ASSETS OF NONFINANCIAL FIRM OF MALAYSIA CLASSIFICATION OF SCREW RELATIONAL DRUMS RUSSIAN REINDUSTRIALIZATION MECHANISM

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

International Editorial Board

Editor-in-Chief Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, PhD Professor Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA

Executive Editor Boonsap Witchayangkoon, PhD Associate Professor Thammasat University, THAILAND

Editorial Board:

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mohamed Gadi (University of Nottingham, UNITED KINGDOM) Professor Dr.Hitoshi YAMADA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Professor Dr. Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN ) Professor Dr.Mikio SATOMURA (Shizuoka University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN) Emeritus Professor Dr.Mike Jenks (Oxford Brookes University, UNITED KINGDOM ) Professor Dr.I Nyoman Pujawan (Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA) Professor Dr.Toshio YOSHII (EHIME University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Neven Duić (University of Zagreb, CROATIA) Professor Dr.Dewan Muhammad Nuruzzaman (University Malaysia Pahang MALAYSIA) Professor Dr.Masato SAITOH (Saitama University, JAPAN)

Scientific and Technical Committee & Editorial Review Board on Engineering, Technologies and Applied Sciences:

Associate Prof. Dr. Paulo Cesar Lima Segantine (University of São Paulo, BRASIL) Associate Prof. Dr. Kurt B. Wurm (New Mexico State University, USA ) Associate Prof. Dr. Truong V.B.Giang (Vietnam National University, Hanoi, VIETNAM) Associate Prof. Dr. Fatemeh Khozaei (Islamic Azad University Kerman Branch, IRAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Zoe D. Ziaka (International Hellenic University, GREECE) Associate Prof.Dr. Junji SHIKATA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Akeel Noori Abdul Hameed (University of Sharjah, UAE) Assistant Prof.Dr. Rohit Srivastava (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, INDIA) Assistant Prof. Dr.Muhammad Yar Khan (COMSATS University, Pakistan) Assistant Prof. Dr. David Kuria (Kimathi University College of Technology, KENYA ) Dr. Mazran bin Ismail (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA ) Dr. Salahaddin Yasin Baper (Salahaddin University - Hawler, IRAQ ) Dr. Foong Swee Yeok (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA) Dr.Azusa FUKUSHIMA (Kobe Gakuin University, JAPAN) Dr.Yasser Arab (Ittihad Private University, SYRIA) Dr.Arslan Khalid (Shandong University, CHINA)

:: International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

Volume 11 Issue 11 (2020) http://TuEngr.com

ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

FEATURE PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

MUGHAL ARCHITECTURAL STYLE IN COLONIAL BUILDINGS IN MALAYA: THE ROLES OF BRITISH ARCHITECTS

11A11A

PRODUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRRIGATED AND RAINFED WHEAT FARMING

11A11B

A PROBE INTO THE TEACHING COMPREHENDED READING TO STUDENTS IN RUSSIA OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE XIX CENTURY

11A11C

EFFECTS OF CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE AND TRUST ON CUSTOMER LOYALTY IN THE FAST-FOOD INDUSTRY OF PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

11A11D

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CORRELATES OF EDUCATION IN THE SLUM POPULATION: AN EVIDENCE FROM KARACHI, PAKISTAN

11A11E

IMPACTS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN BANGLADESH

11A11F

DETERMINANTS OF CUSTOMER CHURN: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS FROM SAUDI ARABIA

11A11G

LEADERSHIP STYLES: RELATIONSHIP WITH ORGANIZATIONAL DISSENT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT MEDIATION ANALYSIS VIA CB-SEM APPROACH

11A11H

LEGIBILITY PATTERN AT A CITY CENTRE OF KUALA TERENGGANU, MALAYSIA

11A11I

FEAR OF CYBER COMMUNICATION THREAT EFFECTS ON ONLINE FREEDOM OF EXPRESSIONS

11A11J

DETERMINANTS OF RETURN ON ASSETS OF NON-FINANCIAL FIRM OF MALAYSIA

11A11K

CLASSIFICATION OF SCREW RELATIONAL DRUMS

11A11L

RUSSIAN REINDUSTRIALIZATION MECHANISM

11A11M

IMPACTS OF DAYLIGHT ON IMPROVING HEALING QUALITY IN PATIENT ROOMS: CASE OF SHORSH HOSPITAL IN SULAIMANI CITY

11A11N

SOCIAL OR TRADITIONAL WOM: AN INVESTIGATION OF SUCCESSFUL BRAND EXTENSION RECOMMENDATION METHOD FOR PURCHASE DECISIONS

11A11O

EFFECTS OF DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR LONG-LIFE FRUIT TREES ON DIFFERENT ECONOMIC BASES

11A11P

SPACE SYNTAX STUDY FOR VAKKO HEADQUARTERS AND POWER MEDIA CENTER IN ISTANBUL

11A11Q

CONSTRUCTION COST OVERRUN RISK ANALYSIS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE: CASE OF A SIX-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING IN THAILAND

11A11R

STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND

11A11S

TRANSFER PRICING RISK WITHIN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN THAILAND

11A11T

FIELD MEASUREMENT AND SIMULATION VALIDATION OF INCIDENT IRRADIANCE ON VERTICAL FACADE IN TROPICAL COUNTRIES

11A11U

Contacts: Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan (Editor-in-Chief), School of Housing, Building and Planning, UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA, 11800 Minden, Penang, MALAYSIA. Tel: +60-4-653-2835 Fax: +60-4-657 6523, Sanusi@usm.my, Editor@TuEngr.com Associate Professor Dr.Boonsap Witchayangkoon (Executive Editor), Thammasat School of Engineering, THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY, Klong-Luang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel: +66-2-5643005 Ext 3101. Fax: +66-25643022 DrBoonsap@gmail.com, Editor@TuEngr.com Managing Office TUENGR Group, 88/244 Moo 3, Moo Baan Saransiri, Klong#2, KlongLuang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel/WhatsApp: +66-995535450. Postal Paid in MALAYSIA/THAILAND. Side images are natural beautiful scenery of Khao Kho, Petchaboon Thaiand.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11A

MUGHAL ARCHITECTURAL STYLE IN COLONIAL BUILDINGS IN MALAYA: THE ROLES OF BRITISH ARCHITECTS Asif Ali 1 2

1,2

, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan

School of Housing, Building & Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA. Architecture Section, University Polytechnic of Aligarh Muslim University, INDIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 04 July 2019 Received in revised form 26 February 2020 Accepted 31 March 2020 Available online 06 May 2020

The British architects during the colonial time had adopted and contributed to the Mughal architectural style in their building design in Malaya. A historical investigation has been analyzed for the role of the British architects integrating Mughal styles when working at the Public Works Department in British India and later in British Malaya during their services. A historical description is formulated using a contentanalysis method to narrate the research survey and analysis. The finding shows that the involvement of British architects and engineers in the design of public buildings was one of the primary factors for the Mughal architectural route to the image of British Malaya. The results illustrate that Mughal architectural elements were deliberately incorporated into the local architecture. The British architects had a fascination with Mughal architecture and presuming British East Indian Company as a successor of the Mughal Empire were the two reasons for choosing a mixture of British and Mughal architecture as a hybrid symbol of the empire. This study is conducted to fill a gap in the existing literature on the subject of Mughal style and its influence on present Malaysian architecture.

Keywords: Mughal architecture; Neoclassical style; Architectural transition; Colonial architects; Architectural history; British Malaya; Malaysian architecture; Indo-Saracenic.

1. INTRODUCTION Climatic factors and available local materials have shaped the indigenous architecture of a region. Socio-political and socio-cultural conditions contribute to further development of architecture. Southeast Asian architecture, being in the equatorial region with high humidity level, primarily was evolved to house the inhabitants from the heat and humidity. The abundant availability of wood in the region and its heat insulation quality made timber construction ubiquitous. Hence, house-on-stilt building with attap roofs, louvred windows, and timber walls *Corresponding author (A.S.Hassan). Tel: +6046532844. Email: sanusi.usm@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.205

became common in the architecture of the Malay region. This architecture continued to become the most dominant style not until a new architectural style introduced by the western colonizers starting with Portuguese who had colonized the Empire of Malacca (later named Malaya). The Portuguese were the first European who introduced cement, bricks and stones as the main materials in building construction. Malaya was established during the British colonization in the Malay Peninsula while Malaysia was constituted after the annexation of Sabah and Sarawak with the Malay Peninsula. The story began with Portuguese and Dutch colonization from 1511-1825 in the Malay Peninsula. They had introduced European architectural elements to the region. The British took over Malaya from the Dutch in 1825 until 1957. They further contributed to the changes to the current development of the architecture of the region. In more than 400 years, the colonizers had transformed the buildings in Malaya with a mixture of British and Mughal elements known as Indo-Saracenic architecture. Several typological studies are used in this topic as the main references, which show the influence of Indo-Saracenic style in on architecture of Malaya (Ahmad, 1997; Khazaee et al., 2015; Rasdi, 2007; Saaid and Hassan, 2019). During Contemporary British Indian colonial bureaucrats and technocrats were greatly fascinated with Mughal architecture. This interest of the British enticed to introduce Mughal architectural style in South East Asia, including Malaya. Scholars summarize two reasons for the involvement of Indo-Saracenic architecture in the Malay world, which are the British architectsâ€™ fascination with Mughal style and its construction carried by migrated Indian Muslims settled in various parts of Malaya (Rasdi, 2007). The research objective is to investigate how the Mughal architectural style was brought to Malaya by the British architects and engineers.

2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, the colonial architecture of Malaya was influenced by a hybrid of neoclassical and Mughal architecture. This research study applies a content-analysis method to identify the route of a transformation of Mughal style to architecture in Malaya. A historical investigation is used to identify the route of Mughal architectural transition from India to Malaya with evidence from the architectural elements as the indicators. A parallel descriptive analysis of British colonial time in India and Malaya is needed to fulfill the objectives of the research.

2.1 COLONIAL ARCHITECTURE IN INDIA The British had entrusted its trading corporation, British East India Company (BEIC) involved trades in India since the 1600s. BEIC started functioning with its military authorized by the British government in 1757 after the Battle of Plassey at Palashi, Bengal in India. By the next century, the British extended their territory to almost overall present-day India. Much attention was not given to architecture by the British in the beginning as they focused on territorial expansion, except the construction of few government buildings and other structures required for the elite class in Madras, Bombay, and Calcutta. These structures mostly were in contemporary European classical style, especially in Madras and Calcutta. This style reflected racial and cultural supremacy and dominance over the conquered territory. In 1854, the Public Works Department (PWD) was established, and later architects were appointed in each province for the construction of various public buildings. At the same time, England was also facing the stylistic competency, and by the mid of

Asif Ali, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan

nineteenth century, Gothic architecture prevailed over the European classical style. Soon after the construction of Muir College in Allahabad with a reflection of Mughal style, a debate started among the British technocrats about the suitable architectural style under the rule of the British East Indian Company. The issue rose to dissent on whether the colonial buildings in India should hold the British neoclassical style or the style should be founded on Indian architectural legacy. The style was not merely concerned with the aesthetical choice of buildings, but it is an identity of a new nation also accepted by the Indian population.

2.2 COLONIAL ARCHITECTURE IN MALAYA Portuguese captured Malacca in 1511 and occupied till 1641, marking the first European colonization in the Malay Peninsula. They built various public, residential and religious buildings and fortified the city with a stone wall (Vlatseas, 1990). Most of the Portuguese buildings were destroyed during the Dutch attack in 1641. Portuguese introduced arch construction to the Malay world and constructed buildings using masonry technique. Later Malacca was occupied by Dutch from 1641 to 1824. Stadhuys, a town hall building in Malacca, was the earliest example of Dutch colonial structure in the Malay world. Christ Church is another example of the Dutch neoclassical building in Malacca built in the mid-eighteenth century. The features of these two buildings like round pediment shape, louvred windows, balustrades, and open balconies, introduced classical architecture in this region. However, the greatest impact on Malaysian architecture today was made by the British. The first British colony in Malaya was established in Penang in 1786. Hence, Penang observed earliest British colonial architectural influence, but later other states were also influenced as the British involvements in political and economic affairs of states deepened (Hassan, 2009). The Strait Settlements, in the early nineteenth century and rubber plantation and establishment of the tin industry in the states of Selangor and Perak further augmented British involvement in administration. The establishment of the Public Works Department (PWD) and the Survey Department authorized by the British, regulated further guidelines for public services and development of infrastructure. In 1895, Kuala Lumpur became the center of British rule and headquarters of Resident-General and other departmental heads. In the late eighteenth century, a series incidences of fire destruction took place in Kuala Lumpur, and finally, Selangor State Council banned the use of wood and thatch in construction (Sharif, 2017). The colonial architecture of Malaya is influenced by various styles like neo-classical, Tudor, neo-Gothic and Mughal architecture. However, neoclassical and Mughal architecture was more influential than other styles. Neoclassical style, the revival of Greek and Roman forms, was already prevailing in England from the mid-eighteenth century. Hence, the neoclassical style was a favorite choice in the British Empire as a symbol of democracy in the British Imperialism’s supremacy (Hassan & Che Yahaya, 2012). Triangular pediment, Roman and Greek orders, balustrade, pilasters, Venetian windows and a large central entrance of the facade were the features of colonial neoclassical examples. With the construction of the Sultan Abdul Samad building (Supreme Court building – Figure 1), Mughal architectural features were also incorporated with the neoclassical elements into the building style in Malaya. Later, the style became conventional to the architecture of Malaya and regarded the status symbol. Kuala Lumpur Railway Station and Masjid Jamek, Zahir *Corresponding author (A.S.Hassan). Tel: +6046532844. Email: sanusi.usm@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.205

Mosque in Alor Setar, Ubudiah Mosque in Perak (Figure 2) and Alwi mosque in Perlis are among the buildings highly influenced with the Mughal style.

Figure 1: Sultan Abdul Samad Building, Kuala Lumpur

Figure 2: Ubudiah mosque (exterior photo â€“ left and interior photo â€“ right)

3. DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS British architects and engineers preferred this Indo-Saracenic architectural styles able to embody the Islamic culture of the time acceptable to the Muslim Malay people under the British colonization. Two ideal styles were found suitable for this purpose, Mughal and Moorish style. The former was a dominant style and was borrowed from the British-India architecture while the latter had less influence. A few of Moorish elements were integrated as the secondary elements of the Mughal architecture. The Moorish style was the Umayyad architecture of Spain, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. This section explains three factors of the content-analysis study, which are the British fascination with Mughal style, its inception in Malaya and the role of the British architects during the colonial period.

3.1 BRITISH FASCINATION WITH MUGHAL ARCHITECTURE British colonial architects considered Mughal architecture as their appropriate choice of style for constructing public buildings in India for two reasons (Metcalf, 1984). a). British took over power from Mughals and considered themselves next in the hierarchy of power and assimilating their position in Indian society as their new rulers.

Asif Ali, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan

b). The dome and arch construction (arcuated system) of Mughal architecture was similar to the contemporary British architecture. It was practical enough to cover the larger spans in comparison to ancient Indian post and lintel construction (trabeated system). In 1870, Lord Napier, the then Governor of Madras, in a speech, pointed out the advantages of dome and arch construction of medieval India over the trabeated and corbelled system of ancient India. He argued that the dome and arch system is more scientific and practical to build colonial public buildings. He urged the Government of India to make this an official style of constructing colonial buildings. Napier referred it as “Mussulman style” and “a tribute to the genius of the past” while talking about the style incorporated by the government architect R. F. Chisholm, to the building of Madras Board of Revenue. In 1860, Madras departed the European classical style with the design of Memorial Hall, the last classical structure. Mayo College was established to educate the royal siblings of the princes of Rajputana with an English environment. In 1875, Major C. Mant received the commission of Mayo College, Ajmer, a significant structure in the development of Mughal style during the colonial period. However, the design raised a controversial debate for the appropriate architecture for the college and delayed the work. The choice was classical, Indo- Islamic and Hindu styles. Lord Mayo, who was a viceroy of India was interested in classical style, but later he preferred to build the college in the Hindu style. He sent Gordon, the Executive Engineer, to visit contemporary Hindu palaces for the study. Gordon found that by the late Mughal period, the two architectural styles, Hindu and Muslim, already amalgamated. Gordon made the design and Cunningham, archaeological surveyor to the Government of India added turrets and cupolas.

Figure 3: Albert Hall Museum, Jaipur The building was completed in 1885 on the design of Mant. He argued that the Hindu and Muslim architecture had already been intermingled and also harmonious to the local climate, hence suitable for further development of colonial architecture in India. A similar approach was observed in style adopted for Albert Hall, Jaipur (Figure 3) and Prince of Wales Museum, Bombay. Hence British technocrats and bureaucrats were convinced by the last quarter of the nineteenth century that medieval Indian architectural features were suitable for the inspiration of colonial development in India and they called it ‘Indo-Saracenic’. Sir Richard Temple mentioned Mughals as “the greatest architectural genius that ever lived” (Metcalf, 1984). British rulers compared the colonial structure to the Mughal buildings to claim themselves the direct line of descent of Mughals. The British had collected the census of population, archaeological and ethnological survey and *Corresponding author (A.S.Hassan). Tel: +6046532844. Email: sanusi.usm@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.205

started detailed gazettes in the late nineteenth century. The process revealed the treasures of Indian art and architecture in the Western world. Subsequently, the work of contemporary architectural historians like James Fergusson got large readers reading his book ‘History of Indian and Eastern Architecture’ published in 1876, which made the European world more familiar with the Mughal architecture. At the same time, the wide use of camera photography promulgated Indian architectural heritage to the rest of the world.

3.2 THE BEGINNING OF MUGHAL ARCHITECTURAL TRANSFER TO MALAYA The evidence shows that it was a deliberate decision to incorporate a hybrid of neoclassical style with Mughal architectural elements into the buildings in Malaya during the design of the first building with this style, i.e. Sultan Abdul Samad building in Kuala Lumpur. On the completion of this building in 1897, Charles Edwin Spooner, who was the state engineer of Selangor PWD mentioned in his speech that the style of the building is ‘Mahometan style’. The name is derived from the word ‘Muhammad’, the last Prophet in Islam. The style was also known as Indo-Saracenic, Indo- Islamic, Euro-Islamic and sometimes as Moorish style by the researchers. Like in India, the early examples of colonial buildings also had the design of neoclassical style that the issue of incorporating Mughal style at the early stage was reluctant. But later the style flourished and embellished a hybrid identity of the urban fabric. Spooner argues, “Mr. Norman then drew out a ground plan and Mr. Bidwell an elevation in Classic Renaissance of a building. Though I did not like the design, I adopted the arrangement of the offices and the general lines. I then decided on the Mahometan style, and in due course sent it in with an estimate for $152,000. One stood behind the chair of the acting Governor (Mr. Maxwell) when he was examining the trial estimates, and I leave it to you to imagine my feelings when he did not put his pen through the $76,000 down as the first part of the vote for $152,000.” (Gullick, 1992)

3.3 BRITISH COLONIAL ARCHITECTS IN MALAYA Izumida (2003) has enlisted more than fifty Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) members who had worked in Southeast Asia during the colonial period. Six of them worked in Malaya (Table 1), and most of them served in PWD while several of them also had their private practice in an architecture firm. One of the architects was Arthur Benison Hubback, who was British army personnel, a sportsman and an architect. He was born in Liverpool in 1871. After he had completed his studies, he was working as an apprentice for the city of Liverpool. In the late nineteenth century, Hubback joined as a chief draughtsman in the Public Works Department (PWD) in Selangor and later started his private practice.

Table 1: Colonial Architects worked in Malaya British Colonial Office at the Public Work Department Architects (PWD) R. A. J. Bidwell PWD Selangor (1895) C. G. Brother PWD Alor Setar (1913-1999) B. Hubback PWD Selangor (1901-1910) F. A. Mallard PWD Kuala Lumpur H. A. Neubronner W. & Neubronner Penang (1899-1907) C. A. Norman PWD Malaya

Asif Ali, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan

Figure 4: Kuala Lumpur Railway Station. While working with PWD, he got an opportunity to work with R. A. J. Bidwell on the design of government office building, today it is known as Sultan Abdul Samad Building. Later Hubback designed several buildings like Kuala Lumpur Railway Station (Figure 4) and Masjid Jamek Kuala Lumpur and Ipoh Railway station. He designed almost 25 buildings in Malaya, and some of them are considered today as landmarks in Kuala Lumpur. In 1913 Hubback was commissioned to design Kowloon railway station by Hong Kong government. Hubback and Bidwell introduced the onionshaped dome to the architecture in Malaya. His works considerably affected the architecture of the country. A. B. Hubback had already worked as Deputy Director of Architecture Department, PWD, India (Khazaee et al., 2015). H. A. Neubronner, born in Malacca, studied in London and established Wilson and Neubronner, a construction and renovation firm in Penang (Ho, 2009). He renovated many notable buildings including Kapitan Keling mosque and Aceh mosque. Another Architect C. A. Norman, an associate of RIBA (Royal Institute of British Architect) joined Selangor PWD as an Assistant Superintendent in 1883. In 1896, he became the Fellow of Royal Institute of British Architects. The foundation stone of Sultan Abdul Samad Building bears the name of C. A. Norman. However several changes were made later by C. E. Spooner and A. B. Hubback. Another colonial architect, R. A. J. Bidwell was trained in a London firm and got an honorary member of the Architectural Association. He worked in different firms in England and later appointed at Selangor PWD. After a very short service of two years, Bidwell resigned Selangor PWD in 1895. Bidwell became the partner of Swan and Maclaren in Singapore in 1899 and later continued his practice. Other architects who worked in Southeast Asia and Japan also influenced the architecture of Malaya when they incorporated Mughal architectural elements in their designs. Singaporeâ€™s pioneer colonial architect George Dromgold Coleman appointed as the Government Superintendent of PWD while he had also already worked in Calcutta (Hancock, 1986). Colonel Mackenzie worked in South India, shortly stayed in Java as a Royal Engineer under East India Company (Izumida, 2003). In 1881, Josiah Conder designed Ueno Imperial Museum in Japan, with two onion-shaped domes at the center of the building with Mughal influence. The building was damaged in the Great Kanto earthquake in 1923 and was replaced with a new structure. Not all the British Colonial architects and engineers working in Southeast Asia visited India, but it seems that most of them were aware of the growing fascination of the Mughal architectural style in the British colonial world. *Corresponding author (A.S.Hassan). Tel: +6046532844. Email: sanusi.usm@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.205

4. CONCLUSION British architects were fascinated with Mughal architecture. The reason was similarities of arches and dome construction system over ancient Indian corbelled techniques and its aesthetical quality. In the beginning, the British architects designed their buildings with neoclassical style, but later they integrated Mughal architectural elements in this neoclassical architecture for building design in India. They established a hybrid style for an architectural symbol of the British colonial government under the British East Indian Company compared to the architectural style of the British government in England (Hassan, 2017). The choice of a hybrid of Mughal and classical style in Indian soil help the British presence acceptable by the population as governing transition from the Mughal Empire. The orientation towards Indo-Saracenic style had affected the further development of their colonial architecture, including in the Muslim populated regions near India like the British Malaya. British colonial architects and engineers deliberately designed this hybrid architecture for many government and religious buildings in Malaya, marking a new architectural style and symbol of the British administration in this region.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors appreciate the financial supports from Universiti Sains Malaysia under Bridging Grant (Number 304.PPBGN. 6316521).

7. REFERENCES Ahmad, A. G. (1997). British Colonial Architecture in Malaysia 1800-1930. Kuala Lumpur: Museums Association of Malaysia. Gullick, J. M. (1992). The Bangunan Sultan Abdul Samad. Journal of the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society. 65(1) (262), 27-38. Hancock, T. H. (1986). Coleman's Singapore: Volume 15 of Monograph. Kuala Lumpur: Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society. Hassan, A. S. (2009). The British colonial â€˜divide and ruleâ€™ concept: its influence to transport access in the inner city of George Town, Penang. Transportation. 36(3), 309-324. Hassan, A. S. & Che Yahaya, S. R. (2012). Architecture and Heritage Buildings in George Town, Penang. Penang: USM Press. Hassan, A. S. (2017). Amalan Tebus Guna Tanah, Reka Bentuk Bandar dan Seni Bina di Malaysia (Reclamation Practice, Urban Design and Architecture in Malaysia). Penang: USM Press. Ho, K. L. (2009). Connecting and Distancing: Southeast Asia and China. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Izumida, H. (2003). A Study on British Architects in East and Southeast Asia: 1830-1940. Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering. 2(2), 131-136. Khazaee, M., Yaacob, N., Awad, M., Alcheikh, Z., & Ali, Z. M. (2015). Mughal or Moorish Architecture: The Origins of Malaysian Mosques during Colonial Periods. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities. 23(3), 639-654. Metcalf, T. R. (1984). Architecture and the representation of empire: India, 1860-1910. Representations. 3765.

Asif Ali, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan

Rasdi, M. T. M. (2007). Mosque Architecture in Malaysia: Classification of styles and possible influence. Journal Alam Bina. 9(3), 1-37. Saaid, A.S.H.M., Hassan, A.S. (2019). The Influence of Mughal Architecture on Masjid Zahir: Case Study on Five Rural Mosques in Kedah, Malaysia. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(12), 10A12I: 1-14. Sharif, S. (2017). The Brick-making Industry in Kuala Lumpur in the Late Nineteenth Century. Journal of the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society. 90(1), 61-72. Vlatseas, S. (1990). A History of Malaysian Architecture. Singapore: Longman. Asif Ali is an Assistant Professor of Architecture in the University Polytechnic of Aligarh Muslim University, India. He received his Bachelor of Architecture from Aligarh Muslim University with Honors in 1998. He did his Master of Architecture from Aayojan School of Architecture, Jaipur, India. Asif Ali's current interests include Sustainable Development and Islamic Architecture in India. Presently he is pursuing his PhD at School of Housing, Building and Planning, University Sains Malaysia.

Ahmad Sanusi Hassan is Professor in Architecture Programme at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang. He obtained a Bachelor and Master of Architecture degrees from University of Houston, Texas, USA, and Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree focusing on sustainable architecture and urban design development for Southeast Asia from University of Nottingham, United Kingdom. His research involves Urban Design, Studio Architecture and History, Theory of Architecture, Computer-Aided Design (CAD) and Computer Animation.

*Corresponding author (A.S.Hassan). Tel: +6046532844. Email: sanusi.usm@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.205

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11B

PRODUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRRIGATED AND RAINFED WHEAT FARMING 1

Ranjbar Zahra , Mohammad Chizari , 1 1 Hassan Sadighi , Homayoun Farhadian 1

Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, IRAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 20 January 2020 Received in revised form 22 April 2020 Accepted 29 April 2020 Available online 08 May 2020

This research presented a model for wheat production risk management in irrigated and rainfed farming systems among wheat farmers in Kermanshah province, western Iran using the survey technique, and the descriptive-correlational method for data collection and analysis. The statistical population was all wheat farmers (N = 102,000) of which 383 individuals were sampled by the stratified random sampling technique with a proportional allocation. From the questionnaire survey, all variables composite reliabilities were more than 0.7. The finding showed that the proposed model could make better predictions for the irrigated system (R2 = 0.78) than for the rainfed system (R2 = 0.50). The results give a new insight to researchers in research centers, extension agents, and farmers because the expansion of the cooperation of stakeholders in developing optimal strategies of risk management can be very effective so that those in charge can develop better plans by considering different sources of risk depending on the farming system.

Keywords: Risk resources; Cultivar strategy; Crop insurance; Agricultural extension agents; Irrigated wheat; Irrigated and rainfed farming systems; Crop risk diversification.

1. INTRODUCTION Agriculture plays a crucial role in food security and economic stability of societies to an extent that it is known as the survival factor of societies. However, efforts in this important economic sector of the world are always posed to risk because it depends on nature and climatic conditions on the one hand and is vulnerable to biological variables such as pests and diseases on the other hand. This has been underlined by many researchers [3, 8, 9, 11-14, 16, 18-22, 28]. Therefore, understanding the hazards and risks and ways to manage them is an issue that should be considered [25, 26, 30],. This is also true for various crops and the most important crop of the agricultural sector in Iran – wheat. Based on a report by Iran’s Ministry of Agriculture, of about 11 million ha of *Corresponding author (M.Chizari). Tel: +98-21-48292012. mchizari2002@yahoo.com, and m.chizari@modares.ac.ir ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A11B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.206

planting area, 7.6 million ha (69.55%) is cultivated by grains among which wheat has the highest acreage [1]. Although wheat is the main staple crop in Iran with a significant role in people’s food regime and plays a significant role as a strategic commodity in food security, sustainable rural livelihood, and sociopolitical independence of the country, its production is posed to a wide range of risks that threaten the improvement of the production of this crop [32]. However, investigating the risk factors of crops for the aim of their management is a wellestablished principle and an important step in research on agricultural development so that it can contribute to propose approaches to increasing farmers’ adaptability and reducing their vulnerability against risks in the main wheat-producing regions. Having 411,000 ha of wheat farms, Kermanshah province is a leading wheat-producing region in Iran (Agriculture Statistics Book, 2018). It accounts for 8% of the total wheat acreage in Iran. However, it has been shown that once in a while, factors like drought, chilling, the outbreak of a certain pest and so on strike some regions and inflict heavy losses to crops including wheat and consequently to rural communities, so the production of these crops has always been posed to risks. In this respect, meteorological statistics of the recent decade in Kermanshah province show that the province is at the top of the list of provinces most frequently struck by disasters [15]. As such, this research explored a wheat production risk management model based on the farming system in the Kermanshah province of Iran.

2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK From the agricultural perspective, risk has been considered by global circles since 1933. On the other hand, risk assessment and management in agriculture is very complicated. Risks that farmers faced are originated from many sources. Air, soil conditions, diseases, insects, pests, birds, rodents, livestock, and weeds are examples of these sources. Risk management refers to the selection of methods and solutions to alleviate the impacts of changes. Within the context of risk management, studies have focused on farmers’ behavioral strategies in risky conditions, including practical ways adopted by farmers to control or mitigate risks and improve agronomic conditions. They have been enumerated in the literature as to include crop diversity, the use of resistant cultivars, the cultivation of alternative crops with lower risk, attendance in educational-extension courses, insurance, and so on. The work [20] listed some of these strategies as appropriate farm location, proper sowing date, crop and cultivar diversification, search for alternative income resources, and the selection of sustainable agronomic techniques. Another strategy is to partially transfer the risk to organizations and to make guaranteed agreements and crop insurance. In this respect, some researchers have highlighted the role of personal, agronomic, economic and social factors in risk management. In e.g. [17], farm owners have more risk-taking capability than the others. Also, variables like income, educational level, and farm size are positively and significantly related to risk-taking and the adoption of new technologies. In [23], farmers respond to risk differently depending on their agronomic system, farm size, and income level. While [12] perceive that age is an important factor for people’s risk aversion. Some have also revealed a significant relationship between farmer attitude with his/her income, farm size, and educational level. Noted in [10] that socioeconomic variables were influential on risk perception and management and mentioned that assets and insurance were the main risk management strategies. Marine and his colleagues addressed the role of training programs held by the extension service [24]. In a study on factors influencing the adoption of improved potato cultivars, [2] found

Ranjbar Zahra, Mohammad Chizari, Hassan Sadighi, Homayoun Farhadian

that higher educational levels of the family head and access to media had positive impacts on the adoption of improved cultivars. Nonetheless, other factors, e.g. farmer perception and attitude, should not be neglected as perceptions precede behavior. Attitudes can be regarded as an individual’s positive or negative assessment of behavior. The more positive the assessments are, the more willing the individuals will be to display a specific behavior. But, since knowledge and awareness by themselves cannot signify a good or bad behavior or performance and the reality is much more complicated than this linear trend, so other mediator factors should also be considered. Based on the theoretical framework, some of these variables include personal, social, economic, agronomic characteristics as well as communication channels.

3. METHODOLOGY This research is a quantitative study, an applied study in terms of objective, and a descriptivecorrelational study in terms of surveyed data collection methodology. The statistical population was all wheat growers in Kermanshah province, western Iran (N = 102,000). The sample size was 383 by the Krejcie and Morgan table and was taken by the multi-stage stratified random sampling technique with proportional allocation. Given the population ratio in each stratum, 313 individuals were taken from the rainfed stratum (81.7%) and 70 individuals from the irrigated stratum (18.3%). The alpha was in the range of 0.73-0.94.

4. RESULTS Most farmers (91%) were the sole owner. The lowest farm size was 1 ha in the rainfed system and 0.5 ha in the irrigated system and the highest were 41 and 32 ha, respectively. Most farmers in both systems were at the intermediate level that 68.6% of rainfed farmers and 74.1% of irrigated farmers were placed in this group. The mean age was 48.2 years with SD 10.6 years, showing that most participated farmers were middle-aged. Over half of the sample was illiterate so that the educational level of over 60% was under diploma. Farming was the main job of most participants (92.7%). The participants had been a farmer for, on average, 26 years with SD 12.4 years (Table 1). Table 1: Demographic characteristics of the farmers Variables Type of cultivation Type of tenure

Age (year)

Education

Agricultural experience (year) Main job

Irrigated Rainfed Own farm Hiring Both of them r≤30 31-45 46-60 r>60 Illiterate Primary level High school Diploma Academic education r<20 r≥20 Agriculture Other

Frequency 70 313 348 26 9 10 180 134 53 35 72 132 120 24 174 209 355 28

Percent (%) 18.3 81.7 90.9 6.8 2.3 2.7 47.7 35.5 14.1 9.1 18.8 34.5 31.3 6.3 45.4 54.6 92.7 7.1

Min -

Max -

Mean -

SD. -

48.2

10.6

12.4

*Corresponding author (M.Chizari). Tel: +98-21-48292012. mchizari2002@yahoo.com, and m.chizari@modares.ac.ir ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A11B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.206

After the demographic characteristics, the use of educational-extension programs by farmers was explored (Table 2). It was found that the items like attendance in agricultural exhibits, interaction with academic centers, and using informing SMS and radio broadcasts did not have high averages among farmers. Table 2: Average use of educational-extension programs and services No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Use of educational-extension programs Interaction with experts in agricultural service centers Interaction with the extension unit Television programs Radio broadcasts Agriculture related websites Using informing SMS Interaction with input suppliers Interaction with informant key and extension agent Production cooperatives Interaction with academic centers Participation in workshops and courses Demonstration farms Educational journals and brochures Technical-consulting services companies Attendance in agricultural exhibits Interaction with other organization Pattern site tags and learning centers Farmers of leader Total Mean

Mean 2.59 2.25 1.89 1.55 1.79 1.46 1.94 2.43 1.18 1 2.07 1.80 1.77 1.76 1.45 1.03 1.96 2.47 1.76

SD. 1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9

Rank 1 4 8 13 10 14 7 3 16 18 5 9 11 12 15 17 6 2

On the other hand, since farmers employ various mechanisms to counteract risk, the types of strategies to adapt to wheat production risk were assessed on the Likert scale to identify the relative importance of individual strategy versus the other strategies. To this end, the adaptation strategy index (ASI), put forth by Uddin et al. (2014), was used in which a coefficient is assigned to each strategy based on its importance. To identify those adaptive strategies which held relative importance over others, an adaptation index procedure was implemented as measured by the following formula: ASI = ASn× 0+ ASl× 1 + ASm× 2+ASh× 3 + ASvh× 4

(1),

where ASI = Adaptation strategy index, ASn, ASl, ASm, ASh, ASvh = Frequency of farmers rating adaptation strategy as having no, low, moderate, high and very high importance. Farmers in the study area managed risk by implementing practices that would reduce their exposure to risk. The results are shown in Table 3. Out of 35 adaptation strategies, the use of disinfected seeds was ranked the first among farm adaptive measures, while cooperative cultivation was ranked as the least frequently utilized. The results show that few farmers use windbreakers, water transfer systems, soil conversation techniques, and diversification as risk management strategies. Although the results of [6, 17, 28, 35] have shown that one of the most important strategies to cope with risk is diversification. Also, according to Table 3, crop rotation is the most important strategy to cope with risk. This is consistent with [29], that the majority of food crop farmers use enterprise diversification to include mixed farming (85%), mixed cropping (80%), and crop rotation (72.5%).

Ranjbar Zahra, Mohammad Chizari, Hassan Sadighi, Homayoun Farhadian

Among risk management strategies, the ones considered the most included the use of disinfected and modified seeds, the application of crop rotation, more irrigation rates, the change in planting time, the application of fallow, and participation in training courses. These strategies have been considered in other studies, too. For example, Ellis believes that irrigation is not only a risk management strategy but it also has a major impact on output through it's complementarily with multiple cropping and improved seeds during cultivation [7]. Participation in training courses must learn a risk coping strategy. Noted that extension along with other factors will provide a satisfactory result. Extension agents should be trained about the vulnerabilities of farmers to be able to help farmers manage risks. Table 3: Farmers copping strategies to deal with risk and ranked order of the adaption strategies

Another strategy that some farmers pursue is to transfer a portion of the risk to outside organizations. Contracting and insurance are two forms of external assistance that farmers often use to reduce their vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events [20]. Insurance that was ranked the 16th in our survey is one of the most important strategies in [27] who identified price and production risks as the most important sources of risk and rated insurance scheme as an appropriate strategy to manage risks. Insurance has been ranked high among different risk management *Corresponding author (M.Chizari). Tel: +98-21-48292012. mchizari2002@yahoo.com, and m.chizari@modares.ac.ir ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A11B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.206

strategies [5, 19, 27, 20]. To achieve the research goal, i.e. proposing a wheat production risk management model based on the farming system, modeling was performed. Table 4 shows indices of the goodness of fit (GoF), the assessment of measurement models summary (Table 5), the root of the average variance extracted (AVE), and correlation coefficients between the latent variables research (Table 6). Table 4: Indices to assess the fit of the measurement model Goodness of fit Suggested value Estimated value

SRMR <0.10 0.081

NFI >0.80 0.92

RMS_Theta ≤0.12 0.10

The results showed that the indices to assess the GoF of the latent variables measurement model were high enough (Table 4). The standardized factor loads (β) were high (> 0.50) and statistically significant (P < 0.01) for all indicators selected for the latent variables of the research. They provided adequate evidence to confirm that the indicators selected for each measurement model of the latent variables were one-dimensional. Also, the composite reliability (CR) was > 0.70 for the measurement model of all latent variables of the research (Table 5). Therefore, the measurement model of the research was reliable enough. Also, AVE was > 0.50 for all constructs of the proposed model (Table 5). Table 5: Evaluation of measurement model Standardized factor loads Risk management (0.60 ≤β≤ 0.79) Financial management behavioral strategy (0.71 ≤β≤ 0.80) Technological management behavioral strategy (0.62 ≤β≤ 0.83) Agronomic management behavioral strategy (0.71 ≤β≤ 0.79) Attitude to risk (0.72 ≤β≤ 0.89) Awareness of risk sources (0.61 ≤β≤ 0.78) Extension Programs (0.51 ≤β≤ 0.88)

CR 0.92 0.87 0.83 0.78 0.97 0.90 0.95

AVE 0.50 0.58 0.55 0.55 0.69 0.51 0.53

α 0.91 0.82 0.73 0.70 0.96 0.87 0.94

This means that the measurement model of all latent variables had high convergent validity, and based on the results, the root of AVE for the measurement model (0.71 < AVE < 0.83) was higher than their correlation (0.20 < r < 0.68). This implies that the model proposed for the measurement of the research latent variables had a high diagnostic validity.

4.1 MULTI-GROUP ANALYSIS Since the main research assumption was that the path coefficients of the proposed model would be based on the variable of farming system (irrigated vs. rainfed), the variable of the farming system was considered the mediator variable and multi-group analysis of the proposed model mediated by the farming system was performed in the Smart-PLS software package.

4.2 CONCEPTUAL MODEL ANALYSIS BASED ON FARMING SYSTEM Table 6, there is a significant (P < 0.01) difference between the path coefficient for the effect of the variable of age on the awareness of wheat production risk sources based on the variable of the farming system so that it was revealed that the impact of age on risk awareness was -0.84 in the irrigated system but 0.24 in the rainfed system whereas the path coefficients showed that the impact of job experience on the awareness of wheat production risk sources was 0.48 in the irrigated system but -0.29 in the rainfed system.

Ranjbar Zahra, Mohammad Chizari, Hassan Sadighi, Homayoun Farhadian

Table 6: Evaluation of research conceptual model. Structural paths Age → awareness of risk sources Experience→ awareness of risk sources Income→ awareness of risk sources Extension → awareness of risk sources Awareness of risk sources→Attitude to risk Attitude to risk→ Financial strategy Attitude to risk→ Technological strategy Attitude to risk→ Agronomic strategy Financial strategy→Risk management Technological strategy→Risk management Agronomic strategy→ Risk management

Path coefficient (Irrigated) β T -0.84 3.94∗∗ 0.48 2.25∗ 0.05 0.51 0.43 3.66∗∗ 0.34 3.58∗∗ 0.46 6.54∗∗ 0.45 8.04∗∗ 0.28 2.79∗∗ 0.13 1.84 0.68 7.54∗∗ 0.36 3.06∗∗

Path coefficient (Rainfed) β t 0.24 2.42∗ -0.29 3.01∗∗ -0.12 2.06∗ 0.76 22.80∗∗ 0.49 11.97∗∗ 0.44 8.21∗∗ 0.11 1.85 0.45 10.83∗∗ 0.47 9.62∗∗ 0.02 0.50 0.33 7.55∗∗

Difference of path coefficients β 1.08 0.76 0.17 0.34 0.15 0.01 0.34 0.17 0.60 0.66 0.03

t 5.01∗∗ 3.52∗∗ 1.55 3.01∗∗ 1.59 0.16 3.79∗∗ 1.56 6.80∗∗ 6.37∗∗ 0.19

In the irrigated and rainfed systems, the variable of the use of educational-extension programs had a positive and significant (P < 0.01) impact on the awareness of wheat production risk sources. There was also a significant (P < 0.01) difference in the path coefficient of the impact of the use of educational-extension programs on the awareness of wheat production risk sources based on the farming system so that the impact of this variable on the awareness was 0.43 in the irrigated system and 0.76 in the rainfed system. In both irrigated and rainfed systems, the variable of awareness of risk sources had a positive and significant (P < 0.01) effect on the attitude towards risk dimensions. Also, in both farming systems, the variable of attitude towards risk dimension was influential on behavior strategy for the financial management of farm positively and significantly (P < 0.01), but there was not a significant difference in the path coefficients of the farming systems for the effect of the attitude towards risk dimensions on the behavioral strategy towards financial management of the farm. On the other hand, in the irrigated system, the variable of attitude towards risk dimensions influenced behavioral strategy as to technology development management at farm positively and significantly (P < 0.01), whereas the effect of this variable on technology development management was insignificant in the rainfed system. Also, the results revealed significant (P < 0.01) differences in path coefficients for the effect of attitude towards risk dimensions on the behavioral strategy as to technology development management at the farm based on the farming system. The path coefficients showed that the effect of attitude towards risk dimensions on the behavioral strategy as to the technology development management was 0.45 in the irrigated system and 0.11 in the rainfed system. The results showed that in both farming systems, the variable of attitude towards risk dimension had a positive and significant (P < 0.01) effect on the behavioral strategy towards agronomic management of the farm, but the farming systems did not significantly differ in path coefficients for the effect of the attitude towards risk dimensions on the behavioral strategy as to the agronomic management of the farm. It is worth noting that in the irrigated farming system, the variable of behavioral strategy as to the financial management of the farm was not significantly influential on wheat production risk management whereas, in the rainfed system, the effect of the behavioral strategy as to the financial management was positive and significant (P < 0.01) on wheat production risk management. Besides, there was a significant difference at the P < 0.01 error level between the path coefficients for the impact of behavioral strategy as to the financial management of the farm on wheat *Corresponding author (M.Chizari). Tel: +98-21-48292012. mchizari2002@yahoo.com, and m.chizari@modares.ac.ir ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A11B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.206

production risk management based on the farming system so that it was found that the effect of this strategy was 0.13 in the irrigated system and 0.47 in the rainfed system. In this respect, it was also found that in the irrigated system, the variable of behavioral strategy towards technology development management at the farm had a positive and significant (P < 0.01) effect on wheat production risk management. But, this impact was insignificant in the rainfed system. The farming systems differed significantly (P < 0.01) in the path coefficient for this effect so that the path coefficients indicated that the effect of the technology development management was 0.68 and 0.02 in the irrigated and rainfed systems, respectively. Finally, Figure 1 illustrates that the coefficient of determination for the latent variable of wheat production risk management was about 78% for the irrigated system and about 50% for the rainfed system. This means that the latent variables of the model could capture about 78% of the variance in risk management in the irrigated system and about 50% of the variance in this variable in the rainfed system. Therefore, it can be stated that the proposed conceptual model performs better in predicting wheat production risk management by wheat farmers of Kermanshah province in the irrigated system than the rainfed system.

Irrigated wheat

Rainfed wheat

Figure 1: The proposed model in the irrigated and rainfed system.

5. CONCLUSION The results showed that the average use of educational-extension programs and services by farmers was weak (< 1.76), which is in agreement with [31]. Noted that interaction with extension services and attendance in educational workshops and courses had higher averages than the overall average, which is consistent with [4]. But, items, like holding agricultural exhibits, interaction with academic centers, and using informative SMS and radio broadcasts, did have a high average among farmers, which is interesting because the programs sent by these media may not match farmersâ€™ needs and problems, so these broadcasts are not welcomed. Thus, extension programs should be based on the specific principles of farmersâ€™ teaching and learning. Since among the different channels to get information, farmers mostly rely on the interaction with experts, the use of pioneering farmersâ€™ abilities, and the interaction with informants and extension agents, this means

Ranjbar Zahra, Mohammad Chizari, Hassan Sadighi, Homayoun Farhadian

that farmers select information sources that are more available and are more closely aware of their problems. For example, extension agents are present in rural areas most of the time, so they are more closely aware of their problems and/or they are more familiar with farmers’ dialect and language, so they are more warmly welcomed by farmers as a source of information. Hence, to achieve one of the goals of extension, i.e. fostering local leaders and sharing information with farmers through these leaders, it is recommended to hold specific training courses for experts, pioneering farmers, and extension agents so that, as trained technical leaders, they can contribute to developing new concepts among rural people. Also, extension programs and services should match the literacy level and needs of farmers. A strategy, which was ranked lower among the strategies and farmers did not show willingness, was crop insurance whilst it has been identified as key leverage to reduce susceptibility to risks [33]. Crop insurance implementations help compensations for the damages by different risk factors and sources, grant loans and facilities at an appropriate interest rate to allow tackling the challenges of input supply, supply inputs promptly, reinforce the links between the educational sector, extension sector, and insurance funds, develop policies to provide financial supports and liquidity for farmers, and ask for help from other sectors that have interests in agriculture, especially the private sector. Models comparison, based on the path coefficients, the effect of using programs on the awareness of wheat production risk sources was 0.43 in the irrigated system while it was 0.76 in the rainfed system. Thus, extension plays a critical role in raising awareness of risk sources. Also, the proposed model can predict farmers’ use of wheat production risk management in the irrigated system better than in the rainfed systems. This may arise from the conditions peculiar to rainfed farming, which is mainly influenced by climatic conditions. So, farmers cannot be so effective in improving the conditions in this farming system and leave crop production to such factors as rainfall. Then, they do not make themselves look for up-to-date information for the improvement of crop production and/or risk management and they take a fatalistic attitude. It is, therefore, recommended to motivate farmers to act more responsibly and make more efforts by providing strong motives, especially financial incentives that are more welcomed by farmers. Attention should also be paid to engaging farmers in programs by using modern cooperation techniques.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES [1] Agricultural Statistics book (2018). Agricultural Statistics of Crop Year 2016-2017. Volume I: Crops. Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture. [2] Abebe, G. K., Bijman, J., Pascucci, S., and Omta, O. (2013). Adoption of improved potato varieties in Ethiopia: The role of agricultural knowledge and innovation system and smallholder farmers’ quality assessment. Agricultural Systems, (122): 22–32. [3] Aimin, H. (2010). Uncertainty, Risk Aversion and Risk Management in Agriculture. International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 152–156. [4] Wapet, S.; Chandrapatya, Suraphol; Buranatanung, N. 2005. Factors affecting the adoption and nonadoption of sloping land conservation farming practices by small-scale farmers in Thailand. In Kheoruenromne, I.; Riddell, J. A.; Soitong, K. (Eds.). Proceedings of SSWM 2004 International Conference on Innovative Practices for Sustainable Sloping Lands and Watershed Management, *Corresponding author (M.Chizari). Tel: +98-21-48292012. mchizari2002@yahoo.com, and m.chizari@modares.ac.ir ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A11B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.206

Chiang Mai Hill Hotel, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 5-9 September 2004. Bangkok, Thailand: Department of Agricultural Extension. pp.257-267. [5] Anto´n, J., Cattaneo, A., Kimura, Sh., and Lankoski, J. (2013). Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty. Global Environmental Change, 23, 1726–1736. [6] Castañeda-Vera, A. and Garrido, A. (2017). Evaluation of risk management tools for stabilising farm income under CAP 2017-2020. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales 17(1): 3-23. [7] Ellis, F. (2000). The determinants of rural livelihood diversification in developing countries’, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 51. [8] Farrington, J. (1995). The changing public role in agricultural extension. Food Policy, 20(6): 537-544. [9] Fraisse, C.W., Breuer, N.E., Zierden, D. Bellow, J.G., Paz, J., Cabrera, V.E., Garcia y Garcia, A., Ingram, K. T., Hatch, U., Hoogenboom, G., Jones, J. W., and Brien, J. J. (2006). AgClimate: A climate forecast information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 53: 13–27. [10] Flaten, O., Lien, G., Koesling, M. Vallec, P. S., and Ebbesvik, M. (2005). Comparin risk perception and risk management in organic and conventional dairy farming: Emprical results from Norway. Livestock production science, 95: 11-25. [11] Ullah, R., Shivakoti, G. P., and Ali, GH. (2015). Factors effecting farmers’ risk attitude and risk perceptions: The case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 13, 151-157. [12] Gomez-Limon, J. A., Riesgo, L., and Arriaza B. M. (2002). Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach. 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [13] Gunduz, O., Ceyhan, V., Aslan, A., and Bayramoglu, Z. (2016). Determinants of farmers’ risk aversion in apricot production in turkey. International Journal of Management and Applied Science, 2(9), 149-155. [14] Sulewski, P., Kłoczko-Gajewska, A. (2014). Farmers’ risk perception, risk aversion and strategies to cope with production risk: an empirical study from Poland. Studies in Agricultural Economics, 116, 140-147. [15] Heidari, M.P. (2016). How can we reduce climate risks? Special Issue from the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, Kermanshah Provience Meteorological Office, 31-23. [16] Irwin, A., and Poots, J. (2015). The human factor in agriculture: An interview study to identify farmers’ non-technical skills. Safety Science, 74, 114–121. [17] Shrapnel, N. and Davie, J. (2000). The influence of personality in determining farmer responsiveness to risk. International workshop on farm management decisions with climatic risk. 17-19 April. Department of primary industries: Toowoomba. QLD. [18] Jankelova, N., Masar, D., and Moricova, S. (2017). Risk factors in the agriculture sector. Agric. Econ. – Czech, 63(6), 247–258. [19] Janowicz-Lomott, M. and Łyskawa, K. (2014). The new instruments of risk management in agriculture in the European Union. Procedia Economics and Finance, 9, 321– 330. [20] Shannon, H., and Motha, R.P. (2015). Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean. WeatherandClimateExtremes, 10: 50–56. [21] Kay, R., Edwards, W. M., and Duffy, P. A. (2004). Farm manegement. 5th Edition. Mc Graw-Hill, New York, 239-258. [22] Kgakatsi, I. B. and Rautenbach, C. J. W. (2014). The contribution of seasonal climate forecasts to the management of agricultural disaster-risk in South Africa. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 8, 100–113. [23] Lu, W., Xi, A. and Ye, J. (2008). Disaster Risk reduction strategies and Risk management practices: Critical Elements for adaption to climate change. UNFCC.

Ranjbar Zahra, Mohammad Chizari, Hassan Sadighi, Homayoun Farhadian

[24] Marine, S. C., Martin, D., Adalja, A., Mathew, S., Everts, K. L. (2016). Effect of market channel, farm scale, and years in production on mid-Atlantic vegetable producers' knowledge and implementation of Good Agricultural Practices. Food Control, 59: 128-138. [25] Mase, A. S., Cho, h., and Prokopy, L. S. (2015).Enhancing the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) by exploring trust, the availability heuristic, and agricultural advisors' belief in climate change. Journal of Environmental Psychology 41: 166e176. [26] Menapace, L., Colson, G., and Raffaelli, R. (2015). Climate change beliefs and perceptions of agricultural risks: An application of the exchangeability method. Global Environmental Change, 35, 70–81. [27] Meuwissen, M. P., Huirne, R. B. M., & Hardaker, J. B. (2001). Risk and risk management: an empirical analysis of Dutch livestock farmers. Livestock production science, 69(1), 43-53. [28] Saqib, S. E., Ahmad, M. M., Panezai, S., and Ali, U. (2016). Factors influencing farmers' adoption of agricultural credit as a risk management strategy: The case of Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 17, 67–76. [29] Owusu-acheampong, J. (1996). Micro-finance evangelism, ‘destitute women’, and the hard selling of a new antipoverty formula. Development in practice 6(2). [30] Ramaswami, B. Ravi, Sh. and Chopra, S.D. (2003). Risk Management in Agriculture. Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.Planning Unit. Discussion Paper in Economics 03-08. [31] Ranjbar, Z., and Karami, E. (2013). The impacts of extension programs on sustainability of irrigated and rain fed wheat production systems in Kermanshah county. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 9(1), 1-14. [32] Roosta, K., Farajolahossini, S. J., Chizari, M. And Hosseini, S. M.(2009). Investigation of Extension mechanisms which is effective on the risk management of wheat Production in Khorasan Razavi Province. J. Agric. Sci. Natur.Resour., 15(6). [33] Thomas, R. J. (2008). Opportunities to reduce the vulnerability of dryland farmers in Central and West Asia and North Africa to climate change, Journal of Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 126: 36-45. Ranjbar Zahra is a PhD student at Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, IRAN. She is interested in Rural Development, Agricultural Extension, and Education.

Dr. Mohammad Chizari teaches at Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, IRAN. He is interested in Agricultural Extension, and Rural Development.

Dr.Hassan Sadighi is an Associate Professor at Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, IRAN. He got a Ph.D. In Agricultural Extension Education, from Mississippi State University, USA. He is interested in Agricultural Extension Education and Animal Sciences.

Professor Dr.Homayoun Farhadian is Professor of Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, IRAN. He is interested in Rural Development, Agricultural Extension, and Education.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11C

A PROBE INTO THE TEACHING COMPREHENDED READING TO STUDENTS IN RUSSIA OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE XIX CENTURY Sergei I. Belentsov 1, Irina V. Ilyina 1, Olga N. Malykhina 2, Tatyana I Gulyankova 3 1

Institute of Continuing Education, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education «Kursk State University», RUSSIAN FEDERATION. 2 Municipal Budget Educational Institution Lyceum 21, RUSSIAN FEDERATION. 3 Department of Theory and Practice of Journalism, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education «Kursk State University», RUSSIAN FEDERATION. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 14 January 2020 Received in revised form 09 April 2020 Accepted 01 May 2020 Available online 09 May 2020

This article investigates how the leading figures of reform in Russia in the 60-70s of the XIX century turn to the method of teaching reading as one of the main educational skills. The authors prove that scientists have developed a method of teaching comprehended reading to students of different classes, ages, and levels of knowledge. They expanded access to the paper word. They presented the disadvantages of the traditional classical education system and suggested an alternative-an applied learning system. The important finding found that the controversy contributed to the appeal of teachers to develop a new, explanatory method of teaching reading, which undoubtedly accelerated the process of forming the method of comprehended reading.

Keywords: Reading literature; Managing educational reforms; Teaching of conscious reading; Classical and applied education; Russian education reform.

Disciplinary: Multidisciplinary (Education Sciences Development), World History, Politics and Law).

(Education

2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Russian education reform the second half of the XIX century was democratic in nature. People's lives acutely need for change in all areas, the previous inefficiency education system. There is a tendency to reduce differences in literacy skills between classes and to criticize previous conditions, actions, and traditionalist views. Methods of teaching reading are the main learning skills after leaving the initial stage of training becomes a natural decision for managers of reforms in Russia at that time. Teachers and social activists wanted serious changes in the ways of teaching meaningful reading to students of different ages, the content and volume of reading literature, and the reorganization of educational institutions. It was achieved in a short time (60-70 years XIX). *Corresponding author (Sergei I. Belentsov) Tel: +7(919)130-19-19 Email: si_bel@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.207

2. LITERATURE REVIEW This problem was widely discussed in the works of F. I. Buslaev (1982) and Ostrogorsky (1873), which characterize the first method of teaching comprehended reading – the explanatory method. These scientists named the method for the first time in the XIX century gave it a theoretical and practical justification in their works. The research of P. I. Milyukov (1903) examines the historical background, L. S. Vygotsky (2008) psychological and pedagogical, A. E. Kaufman (2011), P. F. Kapterev (1995) - sociocultural reasons for changes in the management of comprehended readers in Russia in the XIX century. Today, these studies are equally important for understanding the ways of modern pedagogy. The works of N. I. Pirogov (2018), L. I. Polivanov (1868), I. I. Sreznevsky (1860), and V. Ya. Stoyunin (1860) reveals the features of teaching reading in classical and applied learning systems in the 60-70s of the XIX century. Among modern researchers, it is necessary to note the works of V. F. Chertov (2013) (consciousness of both teachers and students in the selection of literature for reading). V. V. Zelchenko not only speaks a lot about the modern teaching of ancient, "classical" languages but also draws the attention of the modern public to the historical development of comprehended teaching of "classical" literature.

3. METHOD This work is based on a cultural-historical approach, consideration of pedagogical facts and phenomena in specific historical conditions, taking into account the economic, cultural, and political level of development of society. The hermeneutical approach to the study of sociopedagogical processes involves the interpretation of the semantic content of sources. Axiological and humanistic approaches allow us to consider the personality of the student and teacher in matters of education and upbringing as the highest value of social development.

4. TEACHING COMPREHENDED READING Teaching comprehended reading is a separate issue in the education of schoolchildren, it is closely related to the reorganization of high schools. The new type of educational institution was approved in 1864. The role of the native language, national history, natural science, and modern literature increases significantly in them. It splits the teaching community into two camps – «applied» and «classics» – for a long time.

4.1 HISTORICAL AND CULTURAL METHOD OF TEACHING The historical and cultural method of teaching determines the training in a classical gymnasium, «in which the introduction to civilization is given greater importance compared to grammatical and logical training» (Zelchenko, 2019). There was intending in the opinion of its adherents to develop thinking, and not to communicate various information that was characterized as too diverse and prone to variability. They revealed Aristotle's «Рoetics» as «a code of laws of art that must be followed, for genius must be perfected, and the path to perfection is the imitation of classical models, exercise, and reading». It was required to «more often contain students in rhetorical exercises and imitations of the best authors, both Latin and Russian», for example, «Lomonosov's speeches and sermons, published again from the Synod» (Chertov, 2013). The

Sergei I. Belentsov, Irina V. Ilyina, Olga N. Malykhina, Tatyana I Gulyankova

significance of such education is in the constant appeal to the best examples of world experience contained in antiquity, which was considered the basis of all cultures – both European and Russian. Exercise in subjects that do not tolerate negligent treatment, was traditionally attributed to the advantages of classical education. Moreover, only classicism, as repeatedly emphasized by supporters of classical education, made youth immune to indoctrination, since it developed a critical mind and freed them from such «superfluous», «free-thinking» subjects as, for example, civics. According to P. N. Milyukov, in the 50s it was claimed that the youth did not know the current legislation was fond of «Republican institutions of the classical world», from which the conclusion was made that «classicism» is to the detriment of the student, classical languages should be replaced by the study of law (Milyukov, 1896-1903).

4.2 CLASSICAL EDUCATION «Classicists" allowed themselves harsh statements that an applied school could only «prepare students not for people with moral convictions, but for lifeless folding stores, more or less filled with a load of various kinds of knowledge» (Milyukov, 1896-1903). Moreover, all foreign teachers who sent their comments about the proposed reform were their supporters. The main objections to classical education were its isolation from real life, of scholasticism and the strangeness of the national peculiarities and traditions. The psychologists supported opponents of the former system: «Completely abstract thinking proceeds for the student in an incomprehensible way, which gave rise to a naked and dry verbalism in our former school, i.e., an endless predilection for verbal formulations, for verbal definitions without any insight into the essence of the matter». The students understood entire essence of the previous system of education (in the figurative expression of L. S. Vygotsky) clearly as a horse understands which way to turn when the reins are jerked, but the meaning of the path as a whole from the starting point to the endpoint, the essence of these turns remained inaccessible (Vygotsky, 2008). An adept of the classical gymnasium, F. F. Zelinsky, an antiquarian, culturologist, public figure, one of the most famous professors – «classics», said at one of the congresses: «perhaps the mistake of the old school was precisely that they tried too hard to bring various local needs to the same denominator... perhaps the future school will better meet its purpose when it provides proper scope for various needs of local nature and differently gifted psychologically teachers» (Zelchenko, 2019).

4.3 ROLE OF TEACHERS V. Ya. Stoyunin (1860) spoke about the greater importance of the role of the teacher, the ability to make «your own method» in teaching in contrast to the harmony and prescription of the system. He insisted that "there can be no strict systematic presentation, it is only necessary to strictly understand what before and after you need to explain to the student, to lead him more accurately to the goal» (Stoyunin, 1860). Stoyunin (1860) argued «the inappropriateness of the power of a dead language and scholastic ideas» and cited the authoritative opinion of Professor Sreznevsky. However, he was not inclined to the opposite point of view. «On the one hand, the habits of the old and the innovations of modern writers, on the other-explanations or just rules without any explanation, repeated in textbooks, led... to such discord that only our habitual will do, knows how to put up with it to everyone's satisfaction» (Stoyunin, 1860). *Corresponding author (Sergei I. Belentsov) Tel: +7(919)130-19-19 Email: si_bel@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.207

N. I. Pirogov opposed the division into classical and applied high schools, saw secondary schools as General education, giving the basics of knowledge in all subjects. He admitted that he still preferred classical education. Also, he was against the possibility of choosing lessons categorically. «Can a 12-or 13-year-old child enter the fourth grade of a gymnasium be given a choice of teaching that has such a significant impact on his future career? Is he able to appreciate the measure and quality of his mental abilities, his inclinations, the importance of the significance of this or that scientific subject?. True, he is not alone, but his parents also participate in this choice; but parents, often completely uneducated, having in mind only the worldly benefits of their son's future career, of course, choose what they think is more profitable; and the young man, having the opportunity to choose, stops at what seems easier for him» (Pirogov, 2018). That is why Pirogov advised us to look for good teachers (for parents), to prepare good teachers (for universities and lyceums). «Believe me, in the hands of a competent teacher, both ancient and new languages, and all subjects of universal education will not remain without benefits for the development of mental abilities" (Pirogov, 2018). Pirogov (2018) called for literature lessons «to oblige teachers to engage more practically with students (reading and analyzing classical writers, literary conversations, etc.), which is not consistent with the direction of mentors, although generally zealous, but used to literally adhere to programs" (Pirogov, 2018).

5. RESULT Figure 1 presents the principal theoretical positions of classical and applied teaching systems in Russia in the 60-70s of the XIX century.

"classic"

"applied" development of thinking

message of practically useful information

appeal to the best examples of world experience

appeal to native history and modern literature

the development of a critical mind

a new ideology, often politically tinged

following the patterns

the development of a unique method

Figure 1: Theoretical positions of classical and applied teaching systems. L. I. Polivanov (1968) tried to reconcile the «classics» and «applied», and wrote an article «in defense of literary works as a subject of study in secondary schools». He explained that the study of literary works was introduced in high schools instead of the theory of syllables, prose, and poetry, as well as the history of literature, and was perceived as a change in the method of teaching. The literary critic recognized that with the new approach, the student learned to look at the work as

Sergei I. Belentsov, Irina V. Ilyina, Olga N. Malykhina, Tatyana I Gulyankova

an example or source of information. «A literary work will rightfully become an important means of development and will form in the student a literate person in the strict sense of the word» when he learns to understand what he has read (Polivanov, 1868). L. I. Polivanov insisted on searching for General laws of analysis and requirements for the work that is introduced into training. The work of the teacher must be determined by these laws (1) by what the student does not see in the work, and (2) by what the work itself does not give for its full understanding. It is a glorification of the explanatory method of reading.

5.1 ESTABLISHMENT OF TEACHING METHOD F. I. Buslaev (1982) established this method first, as known. His work «On the teaching of the national language" (1844) contained an expressive assessment of the old school system, which he considered « criminal code of laws, a police calculation of rules, for non-compliance with which the guilty is punished» (Buslaev, 1982). The order of presentation of modern textbooks contradicted the «natural development of the gift of speech», the scientist stated categorically: children are completely useless any theoretical information before they learn to write and understand what they read «clearly». K. D. Ushinsky (1870), V. Ya. Stoyunin (1860), V. p. Ostrogorsky (1873), V. I. Vodovozov asserted the extreme importance of studying the native word in all aspects; they are the followers of F. I. Buslaev (1982). Read what is available to age, what is written in modern language, what corresponds to life experience, stop to explain the incomprehensible, convey the essence of what you read in your own words, learn to Express what you read in writing – these are the first principles of teaching reading, which, according to these teachers, should be followed from the first days at school, forming the skill of interested, «conscious» (Ostrogorsky, 1873), «real», «labor» (Stoyunin, 1860), «practical» (Vodovozov, 1888), «productive" (Kulman, 1892) reading (all these are variants of the explanatory reading). In the middle section, however, the main focus in the management of reading was the education of «higher ideals» by means of literature, which is impossible to implement without »real» reading. That is why it was necessary to study works of art with «a pronounced educational orientation, full of ideas embodied in an aesthetically impressive form» (Stoyunin, 1860). Theoretical skills are acquired in high school. The main method of work in the lesson when teaching conscious reading is an analytical conversation. First, it eliminated the strict normativity of classical rhetoric, and secondly, it promoted «labor», conscious study of literature at school (Stoyunin, 1860).

5.2 READING AND READING The method of «real study» of the text in school from V. I. Vodovozov (1888) already assumed a comparative historical analysis. This revealed the distinctive features of the era, the influence of the author's personality, his biography on the content, and the social significance of the topics. V. Р. Ostrogorsky (1873) spoke about the «ethical and aesthetic» education of students utilizing artistic words, in which the work was carried out with a «spiritual mood», addressed «to everything sublime, noble, good. Such work taught the student «to treat correctly and intelligently both the phenomena of life itself and the works of literature, in which he will know what to look for and what to hold on to». (Ostrogorsky, 1873). The teacher also believed that literary education is impossible without independent reading, which is why he paid great attention to the organization of extracurricular reading. *Corresponding author (Sergei I. Belentsov) Tel: +7(919)130-19-19 Email: si_bel@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.207

The teacher was convinced that samples of literary words cannot provide a single, once and for all approved conclusion, it is impossible to allow the student (as well as the teacher) «anatomical knife cut into pieces the works of such geniuses as Shakespeare, Schiller, Goethe, our Pushkin, Lermontov, Gogol» (Ostrogorsky, 1873). Learning to read in the middle level, according to V. P. Ostrogorsky (1873) not rejects the classical theory at all, but must begin with comprehension of the theoretical contents of the initial psychology and the laws of creation, realized in aesthetic and historical analysis of Russian and many foreign works. Only then is it possible to «gradually build a great building of literary education in the soul of a young man» (Ostrogorsky, 1873).

5.3 PRINCIPLES OF EXPLANATORY READING The basic principles of the classical reading method are presented in Figure 2. Even on the pages of artworks, you can notice echoes of the dispute between «classics» and «applied». For example, in the play «For every wise man enough simplicity» by A. N. Ostrovsky in 1868.

Figure 2: Principles of explanatory reading. The memoirs of the Russian journalist A. E. Kaufman (2011) give a speech by D. I. Mendeleev: «... stop stuffing the heads of young men with classical trash and mental straw, and give them healthy real technical knowledge! And then Russia, in the depths of which inexhaustible riches lie untouched, will bloom with a magnificent color... » To this, according to the memoirist, they objected that his classical education did not prevent him from becoming a great chemist (Kaufman, 2011).

5.4 EDUCATION REFORM: A PROGRESS They considered the new Charter a victory for classical education in 1871 «In spite of the history of our school and the pedagogical truth». P. F. Kapterev (1995) explained this victory by the effectiveness of the political weapon into which they turned the pedagogical reform: political wellintentioned, lack of freedom of thought, and therefore an obstacle to the spread of education among the people. «The desire to plant and strengthen a trustworthy political mood in the youth-the reason has long been and still decides our pedagogical issues» (Kapterev, 1995). I. I. Sreznevsky (2017) assessed the consequences of such a reform and described the results of the exams. Their lack of freedom in the presentation of ideas and useless knowledge of the dead amazed them. (Sreznevsky, 2017). V. P. Ostrogorsky (1873) described the typical graduate schools in 1873: theoretical concepts and critical erudition – no, «the mental development is so poor that he has neither desire nor the energy to read a critical article, on the part of acquaintance with world literature complete ignorance, and sometimes superficial, flippant attitude down to the greatest works of the human

Sergei I. Belentsov, Irina V. Ilyina, Olga N. Malykhina, Tatyana I Gulyankova

spirit», «poor, fragmented knowledge, poor reading in relation to Russian literature». The teacher lamented that you «almost do not meet the desire and ability to read a serious book in our youth», and concluded that the graduates were distinguished by «the poverty of taste development, which was little affected by the teaching of literature» (Ostrogorsky, 1873). However, the high school student should not blame for this state of affairs, according to V. P. Ostrogorsky. First, the literature course itself is built incorrectly. Secondly, neither the school nor society can instill an interest in reading: «In the 40s when we had no other literary interests, and our students read and were interested in works of literature; now when all the interests of society are reduced to all sorts of legal and other scandals or to ... profitable, bread operations and issues of the day, when society almost reads nothing, the spirit of utilitarianism ... easy money and emptiness of mind and hearts penetrate the schools» (Ostrogorsky, 1873). Finally, the third reason for the unsatisfactory state of reading instruction is related to the poverty and randomness of the composition of libraries. Thus, society receives graduates who are not prepared for serious reading and have neither the desire nor the ability to supplement their education with this important component.

6. CONCLUSION The results of the review of the development of comprehended reading training for middle school students in Russia in the 60-70s, this study gives key aspects. This study identifies the direction of educational reform towards the democratization of education of the country's population. The liberal sentiments of the participants in the reform, with the government, approval, allowed us to openly present the shortcomings of the traditional classical education system and offer it an alternative both in organizational, theoretical, and practical terms. Traditionalists-classics did not give up their positions without a fight, and the resulting controversy contributed to the appeal of teachers to develop methods of teaching conscious reading, which, no doubt, accelerated the process of forming the methodology. The authors of the article structured the key features of the "classical" and "applied" methods of teaching reading. They demonstrated how the controversy between the representatives of the two camps gave birth to the awareness of a new teaching method - teaching comprehended reading. The structure of explanatory reading, which was formed in the 60-70 years of the XIX century, is also presented for the first time. The authors consider this method to be the beginning of the modern system of teaching comprehended reading.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

8. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The study is performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for basic research under Research Project No. 19-013-00174 A «The Problem of learning to read Russian schoolchildren in secondary schools in Russia in second half XIX - early XX centuries».

9. REFERENCES Buslaev, F. I. (1982). About teaching the national language / Russian as a subject of teaching: a textbook on the methodology of the Russian language. Manual for teachers. Comp. A. V. Tekuchev. Enlightenment. 287p. *Corresponding author (Sergei I. Belentsov) Tel: +7(919)130-19-19 Email: si_bel@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.207

Vygotsky, L. S. (2008) Pedagogical psychology / L. S. Vygotsky. Ed. by V. V. Davydov-M.: AST Astrel Keeper, 671p. Zelchenko, V. V. (2019). From Congress to Congress: experience of the First all-Russian Congress of teachers of ancient languages (1911) in the modern situation [Electronic resource]. / V. V. Zelchenko. http://refdb.ru/look/2607453.html Kapterev, P. F. (1995). General Pedagogical ideals in the practice of secondary schools. Classicism and realism: the History of Russian pedagogy. Pedagogy, 6, 69-83. Kaufman A. E. (2011). Behind the scenes of the press (from the memoirs of an old journalist). St. Petersburg: RNB, 224p. Milyukov, P. N. (1903). Essays on the history of Russian culture. Part 2: Church and school (faith, creativity, education). Sytina Publishing House, Saint Petersburg, 1896-1903, 365 c. Ostrogorsky, V. P. (1873). About literary education in our secondary educational institutions. Pedagogical leaflet of Saint Petersburg women's high schools. #1(18), 3-16. Pirogov, N. I. (2018). Selected pedagogical essays. http://pedagogic.ru/books/item/f00/s00/z0000052/st016 Polivanov, L. I. (1868). In defense of literary works as a subject of study in secondary educational institutions. Circulation on the Moscow school district. #1-4. Sreznevsky, I. I. (2017). About the study of the native language in General and especially in childhood e-heritage.ru/ras/view/publication/general.html?id=46948693 Stoyunin, V. Ya. (1860). Lectures of Professor Sreznevsky. Northern bee. SPb, #69. http: xn90ax2c.xnp1ai/catalog/000200_000018_RU_NLR_DIGIT_109215/viewer/?page=443 (accessed 24.07.2019) Chertov, V. F. (2013) Russian literature in the pre-revolutionary school. 2nd ed., additional / V. F. Chertov. - Moscow: Prometheus. 245p. Professor Dr.Sergei I. Belentsov is Professor and Deputy Director of the Institute of Continuing Education, Kursk State University Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education, Russian Federation. He holds a Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences degree. His research interests are related to the Interdisciplinary Study of Problems of Economics, Pedagogy, and History.

Professor Dr. Irina V. Ilyina is Professor and Director of the Institute of Continuing Education, Kursk State University Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education, Russia. She holds a Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences degree. Her research interests are related to the Interdisciplinary Study of Problems of Economics, Pedagogy, and History.

Olga N. Malykhina, is a Teacher of philological disciplines of the Municipal Budget Educational Institute Lyceum 21, Russia. Her research interests are related to the Interdisciplinary Study of Pedagogy, History, Language and Literature.

Tatyana I. Gulyankova, a candidate of Philological Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Theory And Practice of Journalism, Kursk State University Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education, Russia.

Sergei I. Belentsov, Irina V. Ilyina, Olga N. Malykhina, Tatyana I Gulyankova

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11D

EFFECTS OF CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE AND TRUST ON CUSTOMER LOYALTY IN THE FAST-FOOD INDUSTRY OF PUNJAB, PAKISTAN 1*

Muhammad Azeem , Muhammad Sajjad , Muhammad Imran Khan , 1 1 1 1 Madiha Ali , Aamir Hayat , Munir Ahmed , Rafaqet Ali 1

Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 20 January 2020 Received in revised form 01 April 2020 Accepted 16 April 2020 Available online 11 May 2020

The purpose of this research was twofold. First, the study empirically investigated the effects of customer experience quality on customer loyalty. Second, the mediating effects of trust were investigated in the relationship between customer experience quality and customer loyalty. Clients’ perceptions were gathered through a convenience sampling technique from 428 fast-food consumers. PLSSEM was employed to analyze the internal consistency, reliability and validity, and significance of hypothesized data by using SmartPLS 3.28. Outcomes revealed that trust mediates the relationship between customer experience quality and customer loyalty. More specifically, trust is a dominant factor in the fast-food industry to develop sensory aspects for durable relationships and reinforce customer loyalty.

Keywords: Product Experience, Outcome Focus, Moments-of-Truth, Peace-of-Mind, Trust, Customer Loyalty, Structural Equation Modelling.

1. INTRODUCTION In the advanced era, the service firms are embroiling its personnel to execute their manifold tasks instantly for the smooth customer relationship. Due to this, fast-food turns out to be incredibly popular in workers/public to satisfy the need for diet at work. Besides that, the fast-food sector has extensively changed the lifestyle and customary eating habits in all nations (Noor, 2016) and consumers become engrossing towards social activities to enjoy the various type of food (conventional/international) at their favorite spot. Therefore, customer experience is a predominant factor in the food industry to build sensory aspects of a product/service. Effective interactions with clients are based on quality services that lead firms towards success (Namin, 2017), and positive experience fascinates buyer’s intention and loyalty. Thus, every firm is incredibly vibrant for enhancing the core competencies to provide quality services that captivate customer loyalty (CL). Limited research was demeanor to find an association between customer experience quality (EXQ) *Corresponding author (M. Azeem). Email: muhammadazeem.ch25@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.208

and loyalty in banking and retail stores (Klaus and Maklan, 2012; Roy, 2018), for that reason, customer experience quality is required to investigate in dissimilar service sectors or environment with new variables. Hence, trust is a predominant factor in relational loyalty which effectively excites customer relationship in every business, it keeps positive interaction and influence customer for payout more for the specific product/service (Garbarino and Johnson 1999; Klaus and Maklan, 2012; Roy, 2018). This study empirically investigated the relationship between customer experience quality (EXQ), trust, and customer loyalty in the fast-food industry of Punjab, Pakistan. Food business (fast-food outlets and food restaurants) in Pakistan hold commercially the world’s eighth-largest market and also become the second largest industry in Pakistan. As well, more than one thousand food processing units are working on a large scale in Pakistan (Noor, 2016). Simultaneously, several food scandals are increasing consumer worries about the food preparing system and its aftereffect on health (Nga and Tuan, 2019). However, the consumer has a greater observation related to food quality, and awareness is one’s perceptive of an entity that enhances attentiveness about food-related risk, often based on earlier experience. Due to this, services firms are looking into the question: ‘How can customer experience quality retain the customer loyalty?’ Based on Schema theory of Fiske and Taylor, (1991) and Commitment-Trust theory of Morgan and Hunt, (1994), this research intends to give the answer of the above question and mainly focus to fill this gap. Firstly, we examine the EXQ effect on customer loyalty. Finally, we analyze the mediating role of trust in the proposed relation. This is the 1st attempt in Pakistani fast-food business setting. The theory provides an exploration of customer trust and adds to value with its unique conceptual model in a different services sector in the Pakistani context.

2. THEORY AND HYPOTHESES The customer experience (CE) is a perspective of service quality (Parasuraman et al., 1988). Customers can gain experience by utilization of a product/service. This incorporates before and after product/service experiences and continues even the service delivery has been finished. Several specialists of consumer’s researcher reinforced the customer experience concepts (Maklan and Klaus, 2011), and refer it as “the customers’ cognitive assessment towards purchasing behavior (Klaus and Maklan, 2013). Also, earlier established Service-Quality-Model of Parasuraman et al., (1988) didn't work as an inclusive resource for measuring customer experience in real-life business situations. Therefore, to measure EXQ a scale developed by (Klaus and Maklan, 2012). Customer’s perceptiveness of service experience is reflected in its four dimensions; product experience, outcome focus, moments-of-truth, and peace-of-mind. Product Experience accentuates client perception to see that he/she may choose, analyze products from a wide range of contributions, and play a significant role in creating the CE. Outcome Focus characterizes customer behavior with goal-oriented experiences. Moreover, it is related to diminishing the customers' exchange costs by discovering better and less expensive suppliers. Moments-of-Truth accentuate service providers (SP) to make sure the pro-activeness, flexibility, and service recovery. Additionally, the service provider’s behavior can affect the decisions of customers related to present and future buying choices, especially, when he/she confront issues. The interpersonal skills of customer developed a perception of handling hazard he/she may confront while dealing with these SP offerings. Peace-ofMind the assessment of customer may influence its collaboration with SP not only from the

M.Azeem, M.Sajjad, M.Imran Khan, M.Ali, A.Hayat, M.Ahmed, R.Ali

beginning but after the completion of service. Besides, it is strongly emphasized that services carry out with the emotional aspect, and customers may appreciate the expertise of service providers. Customers’ emotional attachment with the firm is based on quality services/experiences that evolved customer behavior (Dennis et al., 2013). Customer experience is not limited to services related experiences, since it’s developed as a holistic form, and should focus on intellectual, physical, emotional, or even spiritual elements. Customers’ first experience and expectations are linked with product quality, and their satisfaction formed them as a regular customer. Prior experience brings out a positive evaluation of a product/service that captivates loyalty. It potentially affects customer attitudes that create more value. Critic – assuming “Schema theory” as elucidating that cognitive frameworks inside a purchaser's mind authorize him/her to construe and form new information (Fiske, 1982). Nishida (1999) refers to the schema as earlier experiences that organized individual knowledge which is used to assist behaviors in well-known circumstances. “Cognitive Schema” facilitates the customer in organizing the expectations concerning different domains, procedure, retrieve information, and to make decision-making. Client relationship with a company is crucial to encourage them to pay further and frequently purchase of a product/service. Customer admissible purchasing at more expensive rates shows its loyalty. Likewise, the commitment of the client is characterized as loyalty which might prefer to buy products/services or shows precedence to purchase specific products of a special brand in the future. Budianto (2019) argues that "Loyalty is frequently observed behavior". Behavioral estimates such as buying and inexpensive purchasing are censured for the absence of essential conceptions. This presents the sense of view of factual dynamic procedures, for instance, a low level of repeat buying of specific services might be the outcome of situational aspects. Loyalty is the most valuable asset which augments the company's profits. To create customer loyalty, organizations generally focus on cost savings and offers products with benefits, for instance, bonuses, discounts, prizes on the purchase and exceptional care of customer through loyalty programs. It provides creative and innovative strategies to facilitate and well-engage customers by offering quality products and special deals on a special occasion. It predicts behavioral intentions that observable towards buying intentions and loyalty. Therefore, customer experience and loyalty both are prerequisites to obtaining strong client bases for business sustainability. Thus, the study hypothesis is proposed as H#1: Customer experience has a positive effect on customer loyalty.

Customer trust recognizes as a potential element that shows strong affection related to a product/service of an organization and shows solid bond among buyers-sellers. It diminishes customer whispers related to product quality, cost-effective, builds positive word of mouth, and enhances the profitability of the organization with repurchase intentions. Spekman (1988) refers to trust as the “cornerstone” of deep-rooted relationships and valuable intangible assets for every business. Furthermore, it identified as a strong connection for every firm to create long-term associations among employees, employers, and customers. In numerous cases, past interactions are important for trust, however, earlier experience does not ensure the client's trust. It will increment if the service provider's actions proceed as expected. Perceive value, satisfaction, and trust are the three integral construct of “social exchange theory” that builds brand loyalty (Alnawas and Hemsley-Brown, 2018). In the EXQ perspective, consumer satisfaction (CS) and trust is the ‘cumulative assessment of the brands’ performance aligned with desires and consistent satisfaction. *Corresponding author (M. Azeem). Email: muhammadazeem.ch25@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.208

It developed consumer trust to utilize the focal service brand. Client experience developed trust, based on earlier use of a product/service (Klaus and Maklan, 2012; Deshwal, 2016). Customer positive perception about a particular product or service build trust and impacts on buyers intends to purchase. Additionally, trust has a positive effect on the attitude that influencing the intention in the food sector. For existing research, the term “trust” is utilized in the view of trusting belief. It conceived important for as an accomplishment of expectation. The commitment-trust theory suggested that “trust and commitment” both are the dominant factors among two parties for structure and maintaining a network of ongoing relationships. EXQ is based on psychological construct and focused on the facet of consumer perceptual attributes that are inherently personal. More directly, cognitive and emotional assessment is associated with consumer’s experiences that create a perception about particular a product or service and influence customers for re-purchase. Trust is significant in maintaining long-lasting associations among parties, which would not be possible without trust. Moorman et al., (1993) stated trust as “a willingness to rely on an exchange partner in whom one has confidence”. Therefore, trust is crucial for a maintain buyer-seller relationship, it viewed simultaneously a sensitive indicator for execution service and increase satisfaction and loyalty. CE and trust significantly enhance customer loyalty and encourage them to repurchase (Afridi, 2016). Thus, the study hypothesis is proposed as H#2: Trust mediates the relationship between customer experience and customer loyalty.

3. METHODOLOGY The fast-food industry was chosen for this research because the services are provided in this industry often fast, easy, and comparatively inexpensive. However, fast-food products have a lowswitching cost but customers pay more attention to self-expressive and experiential value (Liu et al., 2019). Clients’ perceptions were gathered through a questionnaire survey using a convenience sampling technique (CST) because of ease of access to identify the fast-food lover’s who frequently visit the various multinational food companies such as; KFC, McDonald's, Pizza Hut, and Domino's' etc, located in big cities like (Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Multan, etc) of Punjab, Pakistan. The questionnaire divided into two segments, demographic variable related information given in the first segment while the second segment is concerning to latent variables. Klaus and Mak'lan (2013) validated the EXQ scale was chosen to examine customer experience with its four dimensions: moments of truth, outcome focus, peace of mind, and product experience via 19 items. These four dimensions demonstrating overall customer experience. Trust was measured against five items adopted from Suh and Han, (2003). Customer loyalty five items were taken from Zeithaml et al., (1996) and Cakici et al., (2019). A five-point Likert scale was used, in which 1 for “completely disagree” and 5 for “completely agree”. All 450 questionnaires were distributed in which 436 questionnaires are received, and 428 accurate filled questionnaires are carried for statistical analysis. After obtaining survey data, the investigation performs analytical techniques by using SPSS 20.0 for descriptive statistics. PLS-SEM was employed to analyze the internal consistency, reliability and validity, and significance of hypothesized data by using SmartPLS 3.28. PLS-SEM is a proficient tool that provides appropriate results in testing moderation and mediation researches (Hair et al., 2017).

M.Azeem, M.Sajjad, M.Imran Khan, M.Ali, A.Hayat, M.Ahmed, R.Ali

4. RESULTS 4.1 PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS The respondent profile is presented in table 1. From a total of 428 client’s perceptions, 54.9% are male and 45.1% are female that often visiting fast-food restaurants. In age groups, it is observed that frequent customer of fast food products 29.9% were below 20 years, while 53.5% belongs to the age group of 21 to 35 years old which is comparatively high as compare to others age groups, 36 to 50 years of people response rate was 14%, and above 50-year-old response rate was only 2.6%. Education level shows that 18.2% having school levels education, 35.7% hold college-level education, and university levels were slightly high with 46%. Fast food lovers related from different occupations response shows that 48.6% are students and 29.7% are employees while self-employees 16.8% and unemployed only 4.9%. Table 1: Profile of respondents (n=428) Description Gender Age

Education

Occupation

Number of respondents Male Female < 20 21-35 36-50 > 50 School College University Students Employees Self-employed Unemployed

Frequency 235 193 128 229 60 11 78 153 197 208 127 72 21

Percentage 54.9 45.1 29.9 53.5 14.0 2.6 18.2 35.7 46.0 48.6 29.7 16.8 4.9

4.2 MEASUREMENT MODEL To evaluate the measurement model, this study adopted approaches of Anderson and Gerbing, (1988). Firstly, the convergent validity (CV) is assessed by the factor loading of constructs each item, and their value is higher than the required threshold value of 0.708. Second, to test the internal consistencies of constructs, Cronbach’s α and composite reliability are used. However, composite reliability is comparatively more preferred than Cronbach's α when SEM is using for data examination (Hair et al., 2016). For both, the standard value is .70. In our case, both values are >.70 and established the internal consistency. Third, the value of the average variance extracted (AVE) should exceed 0.5. Table 2 portrayed the values of factor loadings of each individual item’s, alpha, CR, and all latent variables’ AVE, and affirmed that our data are reliable and valid at all of these criteria. Besides the validity measures, discriminant validity (DV) evaluate by using Fornell and Larcker’s criterion (1981). The square root of each construct’s AVE is compared with its every opposite construct and the square root of AVE for each construct should be beyond the values of its bivariate correlations. Table 3 demonstrates that latent constructs are dissimilar from each other and discriminant validity is established.

*Corresponding author (M. Azeem). Email: muhammadazeem.ch25@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.208

Table 2: Reliability and Validity

Indicators λ1 A2 CR3 AVE4 CL1 0.85 0.90 0.93 0.71 CL2 0.86 CL3 0.85 CL4 0.84 CL5 0.82 Customer Experience Quality Moments of truth MOT1 0.82 0.86 0.90 0.64 MOT2 0.84 MOT3 0.84 MOT4 0.73 MOT5 0.77 Outcome focus OF1 0.80 0.83 0.89 0.66 OF2 0.78 OF3 0.83 OF4 0.84 Product experience PE1 0.82 0.84 0.89 0.67 PE2 0.83 PE3 0.81 PE4 0.81 Peace of mind POM1 0.72 0.86 0.90 0.59 POM2 0.77 POM3 0.81 POM4 0.82 POM5 0.74 POM6 0.74 Trust T1 0.81 0.91 0.93 0.73 T2 0.83 T3 0.88 T4 0.88 T5 0.86 Note: 1 - Factor loadings; 2 - Cronbach’s alpha; 3 - CR = Composite reliability; 4 - AVE = Average variance extracted. Second order construct Customer Loyalty

First order construct

Table 3: Fornell-Larcker Criterion Variable CL MOT OF PE POM Trust

CL 0.84 0.62 0.64 0.69 0.63 0.78

MOT

POM

Trust

0.80 0.60 0.77 0.65 0.58

0.81 0.77 0.66 0.56

0.82 0.73 0.58

0.77 0.57

0.85

4.3 STRUCTURAL MODEL After affirmed the validity and reliability of the data, the next step is to evaluate the structural model. The outcomes of hypotheses testing are exhibited in Table 4. To analyze the mediating role of trust in the effects of customer experience and customer loyalty, the author followed the mediating technique of Baron and Kenn, (1986). The mediating relationship is determined on following steps: (a) indirect relationship among independent and dependent variables (Model 1) must be significant (Figure 2); (b) IV and DV with mediating variable omit the direct path (Figure 1), the outcomes ought to be significant (Model 2); (c) simultaneously observed three variables (IV, DV, and Mediator) and relationship should be drop-off indicates the partial mediation, and if the association between IV and DV turns into statistically insignificant indicates a full mediation-model (Model 3). Prior research also followed similar methods (Durna, et al., 2015; Hon and Lu, 2010). The above-mentioned model's results discussed step-by-step. Model-1, outcomes affirmed that customer experience positively associated with customer loyalty (β = 0.737; t-value = 26.862***). For Model 2, results indicated that customer experience positively impact on trust (β = 0.656; t-

M.Azeem, M.Sajjad, M.Imran Khan, M.Ali, A.Hayat, M.Ahmed, R.Ali

value = 22.060***) and trust positively associated with customer loyalty (β = 0.518; t-value = 11.226***). In Model 3, simultaneously observed IV and DV in the existence of mediating variable (trust) and found that the relationship slightly decreased but statistically significant (β = 0.398; tvalue = 8.966***), and customer experience impact on trust (β = 0.654; t-value = 22.811***) and trust impact on customer loyalty (β = 0.517; t-value = 11.195***) is also statistically significant and indicated trust partially mediates in the proposed relationship. Table 4: Hypotheses Testing EXQ  CL EXQ  Trust Trust  CL EXQ  Trust Trust  CL EXQ  CL

Standardized path-coefficients and t-values Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 0.737 (26.862***) 0.656 (22.060***) 0.518 (11.226***) 0.654 (22.811***) 0.517 (11.195***) 0.398 (8.966***) *** P-value <0.001.

Figure 1: Direct Model

Figure 2: Indirect Model *Corresponding author (M. Azeem). Email: muhammadazeem.ch25@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.208

5. DISCUSSION The present study empirically investigated the effect of customer experience quality on customer trust and customer loyalty in the fast-food industry of Punjab, Pakistan. The outcomes of the study affirmed that trust mediates the relationship between customer experience quality and customer loyalty. The study found support for all the hypotheses. For this purpose, first, we examine how effectively customer experience forms customer attitude that foster revisit intentions and customer loyalty. Therefore, the study found support for the relationship EXQ and CL, as it is evident from (t-value 11.226***), hence supporting Hypothesis-1. CE at various levels positively portraits satisfaction which is directly linked with loyalty. It bolsters the general belief that experiences would matter more in dissimilar services and might be different in trading and services firms. Rahayu et al. (2019) investigations provide support for our insight that CE and loyalty both are prerequisites to obtaining strong client bases for business sustainability. Finally, by incorporating the mediating variable, the study statistically found that trust mediates the relationship between EXQ and CL as it is evident from (t-value 8.966***), supporting hypothesis H-2. The results are consistent with prior research of Boonlertvanich (2019) that validate trust as a vital element to construct satisfaction and loyalty. Therefore, the commitment-trust theory also provides support to cultivate the trust that is the predominant driver of loyalty. Studies of Auh, (2005), Wilkins et al. (2009) affirm that trust plays the bridging role to augment loyalty. Superior experiences accomplish client expectations, build trust, and persuades loyalty. In an investigation on retail setting affirmed that CE and customer familiarity with the business firm will lead to building trust (Sun and Lin, 2010). Moreover, the transcendent nature of client experience also supports our findings in magnetizing customer trust that forms ongoing customer loyalty. For instance, an investigation on the online shopping revealed that CE has a significant effect on customer trust (Koufaris and Hampton-Sosa, 2002) and in another research reported that CT positively predicts CL in the telecommunication sector (Akbar and Parvez, 2009). The equivalent is upheld by the discoveries of the present study. Thus, a “WOW” experience means quality product and services delivery significantly effect on customer attitudes and behaviors that help to develop customer trust and loyalty. This study provides remarks for executive and marketing specialists. First, food companies’ managers focus on employee communication, professional development, and motivational strategies to expand the expertise and creativity of employees (Azeem et al., 2019). Their expertise provides cordial reception and quality experience to a customer which increases customer satisfaction. More specifically, service managers can potentially captivate the customer’s loyalty with innovative services that enhance customer trust. Secondly, service firms put exclusive efforts in the improvement of their services attributes such as (interaction quality, atmosphere, perceived value, and product experience) which are crucial for customer satisfaction, experience, and long-term relationship. So, the earlier positive experience impregnable the perception related to a product or service strengthening the patron attitude. The multinational food companies are being familiar with the feeling of the customer and their clean, safe, and enjoyable environment for adults/children that developed customer trust and play an imperative role in fast-food businesses to retain existing customers and also extract new customers. This will turn into competitive advantages to contend the rivals in the market place and business become more lucrative.

M.Azeem, M.Sajjad, M.Imran Khan, M.Ali, A.Hayat, M.Ahmed, R.Ali

6. CONCLUSION This research has developed a unique conceptual framework that provides an understanding of customer trust in the relationship between customer experience quality and customer loyalty in the fast-food business setting. The findings support our theoretical insights provided by schema theory and commitment-trust theory and indicated that the customer experience and trust are extensively matters in the fast-food business for captivating customer loyalty. Trust as a holistic model carries out inter-dependency evident among the constructs that are highly essential to develop buyer-seller relationships, and corporate image in the services industry. Although, the consumer has a greater observation and concerns related to food quality and their consideration about food hazards take them at highly trusted food-outlets, often based on earlier experience. Thus, memorable experiences based on a quality product/service positively construct consumer satisfaction and trust that leads to increase the customer loyalty in a business-to-customer context.

7. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Data can be provided by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Afridi, S. A. (2016). The Impact of Service Quality on Customers’ Loyalty and Advocacy; Mediating Role of Trust: A Comparative Study of Public and Private Sector Hospitals. Doctoral Dissertation, Preston University. Akbar, M. M., & Parvez, N. (2009). Impact of service quality, trust, and customer satisfaction on customers loyalty. ABAC Journal, 29(1). Alnawas, I., & Hemsley-Brown, J. (2018). The differential effect of cognitive and emotional elements of experience quality on the customer-service provider’s relationship. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 46(2), 125-147. Anderson, J. C., & Gerbing, D. W. (1988). Structural equation modeling in practice: A review and recommended two-step approach. Psychological bulletin, 103(3), 411. Auh, S. (2005). The effects of soft and hard service attributes on loyalty: the mediating role of trust. Journal of Services Marketing, 19(2), 80-92. Azeem, M., Hayat, A., Nawaz, R., Sajjad H. M, Ali, M. (2019). The Effect of Motivation on Employee Creativity: Evidence from NGO Sector in Southern Punjab, Pakistan. International Journal of Business Management, 7(2), 161-166. Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of personality and social psychology, 51(6), 1173. Boonlertvanich, K. (2019). Service quality, satisfaction, trust, and loyalty: the moderating role of main-bank and wealth status. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 37(1), 278-302. Budianto, A. (2019). Customer Loyalty: Quality of Service. Journal of Management Review, 3(1), 299-305. Dennis, C., Joško Brakus, J., & Alamanos, E. (2013). The wallpaper matters: Digital signage as customer-experience provider at the Harrods (London, UK) department store. Journal of Marketing Management, 29(3-4), 338-355. *Corresponding author (M. Azeem). Email: muhammadazeem.ch25@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.208

Deshwal, P. (2016). Customer experience quality and demographic variables (age, gender, education level, and family income) in retail stores. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 44(9), 940-955. Durna, U., Dedeoglu, B. B., & Balikçioglu, S. (2015). The role of servicescape and image perceptions of customers on behavioral intentions in the hotel industry. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 27(7), 1728-1748. Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition. Mcgraw-Hill Book Company. Fornell, C., & Larcker, D. F. (1981). Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error. Journal of marketing research, 18(1), 39-50. Garbarino, E., & Johnson, M. S. (1999). The different roles of satisfaction, trust, and commitment in customer relationships. Journal of marketing, 63(2), 70-87. Hon, A. H., & Lu, L. (2010). The mediating role of trust between expatriate procedural justice and employee outcomes in Chinese hotel industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 29(4), 669-676. Klaus, P. P., & Maklan, S. (2013). Towards a better measure of customer experience. International Journal of Market Research, 55(2), 227-246. Klaus, P., & Maklan, S. (2012). EXQ: a multiple-item scale for assessing service experience. Journal of Service Management, 23(1), 5-33. Koufaris, M., & Hampton-Sosa, W. (2002). Customer trust online: examining the role of the experience with the Web-site. Department of Statistics and Computer Information Systems Working Paper Series, Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, New York. Liu, Y., Song, Y., Sun, J., Sun, C., Liu, C., & Chen, X. (2019). Understanding the relationship between food experiential quality and customer dining satisfaction: A perspective on negative bias. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 102381. Maklan, S., & Klaus, P. (2011). Customer experience: are we measuring the right things?. International Journal of Market Research, 53(6), 771-772. Moorman, C., Deshpande´, R. and Zaltman, G. (1993), “Factors affecting trust in market research relationships”, Journal of Marketing, 57, 81-101. Morgan, R. M., & Hunt, S. D. (1994). The commitment-trust theory of relationship marketing. Journal of marketing, 58(3), 20-38. Namin, A. (2017). Revisiting customers' perception of service quality in fast food restaurants. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 34, 70-81. Nga, N. T. H., & Tuan, T. A. (2019). Consumers’ Purchase Intention of Pork Traceability: the Moderator Role of Trust. International Econometric Conference of Vietnam, 886-897. Nishida, H. (1999). A cognitive approach to intercultural communication based on schema theory. International journal of intercultural relations, 23(5), 753-777. Noor,

A. M. (2016). Fast Food: 2nd Largest Industry in Pakistan. http://www.foodjournal.pk/2016/July-August-2016/PDF-July-August-2016/Exclusivearticle-Dr-Noor-Fast-Food.pdf

Parasuraman, A., Zeithaml, V. A., & Berry, L. L. (1988). SERVQUAL: A multiple-item scale for measuring consumer perceptions of service quality Journal of Retailing, 64. Rahayu, K. S., Yulianto, E., & Kusumawati, A. (2019). Dimensions and Outcome of Experience Quality in Outdoor Dining Casual: The Case of Outdoor Cafe in Indonesia. WACANA,

M.Azeem, M.Sajjad, M.Imran Khan, M.Ali, A.Hayat, M.Ahmed, R.Ali

Jurnal Sosial dan Humaniora, 22(1). Roy, S. (2018). Effects of customer experience across service types, customer types and time. Journal of Services Marketing, 32(4), 400-413. Spekman, R. E. (1988). Strategic supplier selection: Understanding long-term buyer relationships business horizons. 75–81. Suh, B., & Han, I. (2003). The impact of customer trust and perception of security control on the acceptance of electronic commerce. International Journal of Electronic Commerce, 7(3), 135-161. Sun, P. C., & Lin, C. M. (2010). Building customer trust and loyalty: an empirical study in a retailing context. The Service Industries Journal, 30(9), 1439-1455. Wilkins, H., Merrilees, B., & Herington, C. (2009). The determinants of loyalty in hotels. Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management, 19(1), 1-21. Zeithaml, V. A., Berry, L. L., & Parasuraman, A. (1996). The behavioral consequences of service quality. Journal of marketing, 60(2), 31-46. Muhammad Azeem is a MS student in the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. His research is focused on Strategic Management, Innovation, HRM, Marketing, Consumer Behavior, and Tourism.

Dr.Muhammad Sajjad is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. He holds a Ph.D. in HRM from Foundation University Islamabad. His research expertise is in HRM, Marketing, Social Media, Consumer Behavior and Marketing Research.

Dr.Muhammad Imran Khan is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. He holds a Ph.D. in Marketing from Qurtuba University Peshawar. His research is focused on E-marketing, Social Media, Advertising, Consumer Behavior and Marketing Research.

Madiha Ali is a MS student in the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. Her research is in Tourism, HRM and Marketing.

Aamir Hayat is a MS student in the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. His research interests are in Entrepreneurship, Innovation, HRM, Strategic Management and Business Ethics.

Dr.Munir Ahmed is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. He holds a Ph.D. in Statistics from Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan. His research expertise is in Regression Analysis, Quantitative Techniques, Organizational Behavior, HRM, Social Media, and Strategic Management.

Dr.Rafaqet Ali is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan. His major research interest is in Emerging Economy, HRM, Social Media, and E-marketing.

Trademarks Disclaimer: All product names including trademarks™ or registered® trademarks mentioned in this article are the property of their respective owners, using for identification and educational purposes only. The use of them does not imply any endorsement or affiliation.

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PAPER ID: 11A11E

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CORRELATES OF EDUCATION IN THE SLUM POPULATION: AN EVIDENCE FROM KARACHI, PAKISTAN Riaz Ahmed 1

and Atta Ullah Khan

Department of Economics, Preston University Islamabad Campus, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 30 January 2020 Received in revised form 25 March 2020 Accepted 14 April 2020 Available online 12 May 2020

This paper empirically analyzes the correlates of education in the context of slums’ population of Karachi, Pakistan. Primary data has been used in the study which was collected through a questionnaire. Through a stratified sampling technique, 380 households were selected from 20 sampled slums. The descriptive analysis includes literacy rate, education level of the unemployed population, percentage of school-aged children who are not attending school, and reasons for not attending the school are presented. A logistic regression model is used to explore the impact of important variables like per capita income of the family, education of family head, dependency ratio, access to school and educational expenses on the educational attainment of family. The literacy rate was found 37 percent while 51 percent of the school-aged children are not attending school. The major reason for children not attending the school is found to be poverty. It is also found that the majority of unemployment is due to illiteracy. The result of the regression model shows that per capita income and education of family head affect the educational attainment positively while dependency ratio, access to school, and expenses on education affect it negatively.

Keywords: Slum population; Logistic regression; Low school enrollment rate; Slum unemployment rate; Slum childs’ education; Slum family head’s income; Poverty study; Literacy rate; Slum study.

1. INTRODUCTION The world is rapidly urbanizing due to rural-urban migration and fast growth in population. The urban population is rising day by day. The rise in the world, the urban population is threatening. In 1950, 32 percent of the total world population was living in urban areas while in 1980, it rose to 39 percent and in 2000 it was estimated 48 percent. The urbanization is linked with many problems like poor sanitation, environmental pollution, traffic congestion, bad health, and unhygienic conditions (Ahmed et al., 2015; and Ahmed & Mustafa, 2016). Urbanization is the problem of the whole world. However, in the developing world, this *Corresponding author (Riaz Ahmed). Cell/Whatsapp: +923007847627 Email: riazahmedrai@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.209

problem is very severe. In the developing world, there were 881 million slum dwellers in 2014 while this figure was 792 million in 2000 and 689 million in 1990. The population residing in slums has been increasing by about 9 million a year since the year 2000. An unplanned and uncontrolled rise in the urban population is creating problems for the people living there (UN-Habitat, 2013). Pakistan is one of the developing countries where the intensity and gravity of the matter are very problematic. In 1951, the share of the urban population in Pakistan was about 18 percent. It jumped to about 29 percent and 33 percent in the year 1981 and 1998 respectively (Government of Pakistan, 2001). Urban population is increasing due to several reasons and due to rural-urban migration, it has increased from 6 million to 57 million from 1951 to 2008, respectively (Afzal, 2009; and Afzal et al., 2019). Rapid urbanization is creating many problems for people living in developing countries like Pakistan. The major problem is finding the appropriate shelter to live (Munir et al, 2019). People with low incomes are unable to have it. As a result, they settle in the open spaces of the cities. These open space settlements are called slums, squatter settlements, or Katchi Abadis (Qadeer, 1983). An interesting contribution in the context of slums was made by Martine (2007). He explains that slums may develop in peri-urban areas, near industrial establishments, sewage disposal sites, garbage disposal, and industrial waste dumping sites. There are different definitions of slums in different countries. According to Basu and Basu (2016) “The urban areas where buildings are in any respect unfit for human settlements are called slums. Another definition, Encyclopedia of Britannica (2010) explains the term slum as “a residential area that is physically and socially deteriorated and in which satisfactory family life is not possible.” Although slum dwellers are facing many problems, yet the problem of low literacy rates cannot be tolerated. United Nations (UN), especially focused on education while developing Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) #4 is about education. It lays stress on ensuring equitable quality education and promoting lifelong learning for all at all ages. UN desires all nations of the world to achieve the targets of SDGs until 2030 but very low literacy rates in slums are one of the major hurdles in meeting the challenges of SDGs (United Nation, 2015). The slum dwellers do not have easy access to educational institutions. Child labour is common in slums. Due to poverty, children are unable to get an education rather they are forced to do work to support their families (Ahmed et al., 2015). In another study, Ahmed and Mustafa (2016) found that slums are poverty pockets. Slum-dwellers face very poor socio-economic conditions. The majority of the population is deprived of even very basic necessities of life. The literacy rate is found very low as compared to normal settlements. Tsujita (2013) pointed out the factors which might be hurdles against the schooling of children. He concluded that poverty is one of the major factors which may affect the education of children badly. In the same line, Mangione and Speth (2008) found that the income and socio-economic status of a household, including its educational status, are the major indicators of children’s educational attainment. Debi (2001) analyzed many problems faced by slum children in achieving an education. Most significant of these problems are poor health, family background, unfavorable home conditions, large family size, poor living conditions, surrounding environment, migration, language problem, unstable sources of earning, poor economic conditions, poor parental education, and unfavorable

Riaz Ahmed and Atta Ullah Khan

environment of learning, etc. Many studies point out the factors which may affect education in slums. For example, AlSamarrai and Peasgood (1998) identified that among many factors that may affect the education of children living in slums of Islamabad, parental education is most important of all. Parental education affects education positively. Similarly, Handa and Simler (2004) found that child’s age and household income are significant indicators affecting the schooling in slums. The gender of the child is also one of the significant factors which may affect the education of slum children. The enrolment of girls is significantly less than that of boys. After the debate, we conclude that there is a need to study that might discuss the determinants of education comprehensively using statistical analysis. This study is especially devised to explore the determinants of education in the slums of Karachi, Pakistan using descriptive analysis of the variables related to education and logistic regression analysis.

2. METHODOLOGY In this section methodology used for this piece of research has been discussed. This section consists of three parts.

2.1 SAMPLING The target population is all the slums of Karachi, Pakistan. The list of slums was taken from the Karachi Development Authority (KDA). It was used as a sampling frame. Sampling consists of two steps. Sample slums were chosen based on variability in the dwelling units among slums. Representative households were chosen based on variation in income which was estimated through a pre-questionnaire. Table 1: The Selection of Sample Slum Wise (Source: Authors’ calculations). No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Selected Slums Grass Bandar ( South) Nishterabad ( Karachi) Akal Bonga (South) Rehman Abad ( Central) Qasimabad, Extension (Malir) Shireen Jinnah Colony (Clifton) Jehangirabad, Extension (South) Chonna Bhatti (South) Sadiq Nagar, Extension (Central) Siraj Colony ( Central) Jamal Goth ( Landhi) Allah Dad Colony, Extension (Landhi) Chiragh Colony, Extension ( Landhi) Moosa Goth ( Central) Hijrat Colony ( South) Madina Colony, Extension ( Malir) Wahid Colony, Extension (Nazimabad) Mujahid Colony (Nazimabad) Baloch Para (South) Qayyumabad, Extension ( Korangi)

No of Households 07 08 09 11 13 15 08 10 11 16 18 13 14 17 19 30 33 29 34 63

2.2 COLLECTION OF DATA All the slums have been divided into six categories (Strata) keeping in view that the slums have close variations within each stratum. The sample slums were selected based on variability among *Corresponding author (Riaz Ahmed). Cell/Whatsapp: +923007847627 Email: riazahmedrai@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.209

dwelling units in different slums. The proportional allocation method was used and a sample of 20 slums was adopted to determine the sample size based on variation in income which was collected through a pre questionnaire. The overall sample consists of 380 households from 20 sample slums. This overall sample size was equally distributed in different strata. Again in each slum, the sample size was distributed according to the weight of the number of households. The selection of sample slum wise is shown in Table 1. The study is based on primary data which has been collected through a questionnaire, covering all domains of the studyâ€™s objectives. The statistical validity of the questionnaire was tested. Before the final circulation, the questionnaire was pre-tested through a pilot survey.

2.3 JUSTIFICATION OF VARIABLES AND REGRESSION MODEL Per capita income, education of family head, the dependency ratio (Number of dependent individuals in the family), access to school (Distance to school in Km), and educational expenses in rupees are important explanatory variables that might affect the education of a family. All the explanatory variables have been taken from existing literature. There is considerable literature that shows a positive relationship between family income and education of the family (Behrman, 1997; Dearden et al., 1997: Krueger, 2004; and Black and Devereux, 2011). Access to school (Distance to school in Km) is another significant variable that may affect education. We find from the available literature that greater the distance from school lesser will be an educational achievement. It shows that a negative association exists between the distance of school and attainment of family education (Baluch and Shahid, 2008). Education of the family head has a positive impact on the educational attainment of the family (Baluch and Shahid, 2008 and BjĂśrklund and Salvanes, 2011). Greater the dependency ratio lesser will be the educational attainment (See Black et al., 2005; Lee, 2008; Baluch and Shahid, 2008 and Qian, 2013). From the literature, there is a negative association between the education of the family and educational expenses (Baluch and Shahid, 2008). To see the impact of these variables on the health of the family, a regression model of health is built. The functional form of health model is given as đ?‘Źđ?‘Ź = đ?œˇđ?œˇ + đ?œˇđ?œˇđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’€đ?’€đ?’‘đ?’‘đ?’‘đ?’‘ + đ?œˇđ?œˇđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Ź + đ?œˇđ?œˇđ?&#x;‘đ?&#x;‘ đ?‘Ťđ?‘Ťđ?’“đ?’“ + đ?œˇđ?œˇđ?&#x;’đ?&#x;’ đ?‘şđ?‘şđ?’‚đ?’‚đ?’‚đ?’‚ + đ?œˇđ?œˇđ?&#x;“đ?&#x;“ đ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?’†đ?’† + đ?œşđ?œş

(1).

The symbol đ?›˝đ?›˝ is the intercept term while đ?›˝đ?›˝đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? , đ?›˝đ?›˝đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? , đ?›˝đ?›˝đ?&#x;‘đ?&#x;‘ , đ?›˝đ?›˝đ?&#x;’đ?&#x;’ and đ?›˝đ?›˝đ?&#x;“đ?&#x;“ are regression coefficients of

independent variables, đ?‘Źđ?‘Ź = Education (1= if all 5-9 years Children in the family are going to school, 0 = otherwise), đ?’€đ?’€đ?’‘đ?’‘đ?’‘đ?’‘ = Per Capita income in Pakistani Rupees, đ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?‘Ź = Education of household head in years, đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x; = Dependency Ratio (Number of dependent individuals in the family), đ?‘şđ?‘şđ?’‚đ?’‚đ?’‚đ?’‚ = Access to School (Distance to school in Kms), đ?‘Źđ?‘Źđ?’†đ?’† = Education Expenses in Pakistani rupees, đ?œşđ?œş = error term

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES The general description of important variables related to education is discussed. 3.1.1 LITERACY RATE The literacy rate is one of the important socio-economic variables. It is very necessary to analyze the literacy rate of the slum population. In Pakistan, a person who can read and write a single line of Urdu is considered literate. This study analyzes the literacy rates of the sampled slum,

Riaz Ahmed and Atta Ullah Khan

see Table 2. The results show that 37% of slum dwellers are literate while Pakistan's overall literacy rate is 58 % (The News, 2020). Low literacy rates in slums are apparent from many other studies (See Ahmed et.al, 2015; Ahmed and Mustafa, 2016 & Malaviya and Bhagat, 2013). Table 2: Literacy Rate (Source: Authors’ calculations). Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Selected slums Grass Bandar(South) Nishterabad ( Malir) Akal Bonga (South) Rehman Abad (Central) Qasimabad, Extension ( Malir) Shireen Jinnah Colony( Clifton) Jehangirabad, Extension (South) Chonna Bhatti (South) Sadiq Nagar, Extension (Central) Siraj Colony (Central) Jamal Goth ( Landhi) Allah Dad Colony, Extention ( Landhi) Chiragh Colony, Extention ( Landhi) Moosa Goth (Central) Hijrat Colony (South) Madina Colony, Extension (Karachi) Wahid Colony, Extention (Nazimabad) Mujahid Colony Baloch Para (South) Qayyumabad, Extension ( Korangi) Average

Literacy rate 35 38 40 40 37 41 39 31 35 40 29 30 31 35 35 48 40 45 30 35 37

3.1.2 EDUCATION OF UNEMPLOYED POPULATION We tried to analyze the education of unemployed slum dwellers, see Table 3. Table 3: Education of Unemployed Population (Source: Authors’ calculations). Education Level Uneducated Primary Middle Matric Intermediate BA & Above Other

% age of Unemployment Pop. 50.90 20.70 13.16 6.49 4.68 3.00 1.07

The results show that the highest percentage of unemployment was found among uneducated (about 51%). The results are in line with the study of Wambugu (2011) who found that the greater the level of education, the lower will be the unemployment rate. 3.1.3 REASON FOR NOT ATTENDING SCHOOL The reason for not attending school is one of the important socio-economic variables. We tried to explore the reason behind children not attending school. The results are given in Table 4. Table 4: Reason for not Attending School (Source: Authors’ calculations). Reason No school in the location Children not willing in schooling Engaged in work Due to poverty Others Total

% age of children not attending the school 4.08 9.00 20.17 61.25 5.5 100.00 %

*Corresponding author (Riaz Ahmed). Cell/Whatsapp: +923007847627 Email: riazahmedrai@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.209

The major reason for not attending the school was found to be poverty (61.25%) followed by children who are engaged in some child labor (20.17%). The results are consistent with many other studies conducted on slum populations. Ahmed et.al (2015) analyze the socio-economic conditions of slum dwellers of Faisalabad. He found the majority of slum children are not attending school due to poverty. 3.1.4 PERCENTAGE OF SCHOOL AGED CHILDREN (BETWEEN 6-11 YEAR) WHO ARE NOT ATTENDING SCHOOL The percentage of school-aged children between 6-11 years of age who are not attending school is shown in Table 5. This is a very high percentage (51%) when the world is trying to meet the challenges of SDGs. The results are in line with Ahmed & Mustafa (2016), and Ahmed et al. (2015). Table 5: Percentage of school-aged children (Between 6 and 11 years of age) who are not attending school (Source: Authorsâ€™ calculations). Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Selected slums Grass Bandar ( South) Nishterabad ( Malir ) Akal Bonga ( South) Rehman Abad (Central) Qasimabad, Extension ( Malir) Shireen Jinnah Colony( Clifton) Jehangirabad, Extension ( South) Chonna Bhatti ( South) Sadiq Nagar, Extension ( Central) Siraj Colony (Central) Jamal Goth ( Landhi) Allah Dad Colony, Extention ( Landhi) Chiragh Colony, Extension (Landhi) Moosa Goth (Central) Hijrat Colony ( South) Madina Colony, Extension ( Malir) Wahid Colony, Extension (Nazimabad) Mujahid Colony Baloch Para ( South) Qayyumabad, Extension ( Korangi) Average

Percentage 57 57 59 47 50 51 50 58 55 51 55 52 53 55 39 35 43 45 57 45 51

3.2 RESULT OF REGRESSION MODEL From the result of the regression model, the estimates of determinants of education are given in Table 6. Table 6: Logistic Estimates of Determinants of Education Explanatory variables dy/dx S.E P- value Per capita income 0.00475* 0.00215 0.005 Edu of family head 0.00850* 0.003960 0.001 Dependency ratio -0.0555* 0.02111 0.000 Access to school -0.0428* 0.01520 0.000 Edu Expenses -0.7500* 0.31495 0.0015 * denotes statistically significant at the 5% level

The results show that per capita family income and education of household heads have a significant positive impact on the education of the family. The marginal value shows that the probability of 1 unit positive change in per capita income of the family brings 0.00475 units positive change in education. The finding is consistent with many other studies (Behrman, 1999;

Riaz Ahmed and Atta Ullah Khan

Dearden et al., 1997: Krueger, 2004; Black and Devereux, 2011). It has also been found from the results that 1 unit positive change in the education of household head is expected to bring 0.00850 units positive change in education. The available literature also supports this finding of the study (Baluch and Shahid, 2008 and BjĂśrklund and Salvanes, 2011). Table 6, the number of dependent in the family, a distance of home from the school and education expenses have a significant negative impact on education. The probability of one unit increase in the number of dependent in the family brings 0.0555 units negative change in the education of the family. The finding is consistent with existing literature (Black et al., 2005; Lee, 2008; Baluch and Shahid, 2008 and Qian, 2013). Similarly, the probability of one unit increase in distance of the school from home brings 0.0428 units negative change in education. This finding is also in line with many other studies (Baluch and Shahid, 2008). Interestingly, the probability of one unit increase in education expenses brings 0.7500 units negative change in education. The finding is also supported by the literature (Baluch and Shahid, 2008). The correlation matrix shows no clue of multicollinearity. There are no chances of autocorrelation because there are no lag values in the data. Also, no clue of heteroscedasticity was observed. Thus, data was found to fit the regression.

4. CONCLUSION Slums are the most neglected residential areas of the world. Education is one of the important socio-economic variables which might be focused to attain the targets of SDGs. This study is especially devised to analyze the status of education in the slums of Karachi, Pakistan. Karachi is the most populous city in Pakistan. About 50 percent of the population of Karachi is living in slums. A sample of 380 households from 20 sampled slums was selected for this study. The descriptive analysis of important variables related to education is presented. The literacy rate was found 37 percent that is far less than the national level. It was also found that poverty was the major reason for children not attending school. The major reason for unemployment was also a lack of education. About 51 percent of the school-aged children (between 6 and 11 years of age) are not attending school. Other factors include the impact of Per capita income, education of family head, the dependency ratio (number of dependent individuals in the family), access to school (Distance to school in Km), and education expenses on the educational attainment of the family is analyzed. This study found a positive relationship between family income and the education of the family. It is also found that greater the distance from school lesser will be an educational achievement. We further explored that the education of the family head has a positive impact on the educational attainment of the family. The results also confirm that the greater the dependency ratio lesser will be the educational attainment. Also, there is a negative association between the education of the family and educational expenses. Strong policy measures are suggested to improve the level of education in slums. Government and other concerned institutions may take steps in this regard. Steps might be taken to improve family income as it affects education positively. For this purpose, the government might launch small business schemes for poor slum dwellers. As the distance of school affects education negatively, therefore the Government might open a school at easy access to every slum dweller. Education expenses have also a negative impact on the education of the family. *Corresponding author (Riaz Ahmed). Cell/Whatsapp: +923007847627 Email: riazahmedrai@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.209

Free education for slum populations is suggested to improve the literacy rate.

5. DATA AVAILABILITY Relevant information is available by contacting the corresponding author.

6. REFERENCES Afzal, M. (2009). Population Growth and Economic Development in Pakistan. The Open Demography Journal, 2(1):1-7. Afzal, M., Ahmed, S., & Nawaz, M. (2019). Macroeconomic Determinants of Urbanization in Pakistan. Growth, 5(1), 6-12. Ahmed, R., Mustafa,U. & Khan, A.U. (2015). Socio-economic status of transferred and non-transferred urban slums: A case study from Faisalabad, Pakistan Development Review, 54(2): 947-962. Ahmed, R., & Mustafa, U. (2016). Quantification of socio-economic Deprivations of Urban Slums: A Case Study of Faisalabad. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics (PJAE), Special Issue, 153165. Al-Samarrai, S. and Peasgood, T. (1998). Educational attainments and household characteristicsin Tanzania, Economics of Education Review, 17(4), 395-417. Baluch, M.U.H., & Shahid, S. (2008). Determinants of Enrollment in Primary Education: A Case Study of District Lahore. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 46(2), 161-200. Basu, B., & Basu, D. (2016). Socio-economic condition of the slums in Kolkata. International Journal of Humanities & Social Science Studies, 3(2), 141-151. Behrman, J., (1999).Mother’s Schooling and Child Education: A Survey. University of Pennsylvania Department of Economics, DP 025, 1997. Björklund, A., & Salvanes, K.G. (2011). Chapter 3 - Education and Family Background: Mechanisms and Policies. In: Eric A, Hanushek SM, Ludger W (ed) Handbook of the Economics of Education, 3, 201–247. Black, S. E., Devereux, P. J. & Salvanes, K. G., (2005). The more the merrier? The effect of family size and birth order on children’s education. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2): 669–700. Black, S.E, Devereux, P.., (2011). Chapter 16 - Recent Developments in Intergenerational Mobility. In: David C, Orley A (ed) Handbook of Labor Economics, vol Volume 4, Part B. Elsevier, pp 1487– 1541. Britannica, Encyclopedia (2010, pp.315). Encyclopedia of Britannica. Encyclopedia Britannica Inc. Corporate site. Dearden, L., Machin, S., and Reed, H., (1999). Intergenerational Mobility in Britain, Economic Journal, 107 (1), 47-66. Debi, S. (2001). Inequality of Access to Elementary Education in Orissa : An Inter and Intra Spatial Analysis. In A. Vaidyanathan and P.R. Gopinathan Nair (eds), Elementary Education in Rural India: A grassroot view, Vol. II, 518-63, New Delhi: Sage. Government of Pakistan. (2001). Population and Housing Census 1998, Islamabad, Pakistan. Handa, S. & Simler, K.R. (2004). Human capital, household welfare, and children’s schooling in Mozambique, Research Report 134. Krueger, A. B. (2004). Inequality, Too Much of a Good Thing. In James J. Heckman and Alan B. Krueger, eds., Inequality in America, Cambridge: MIT Press.

Riaz Ahmed and Atta Ullah Khan

Lee, J. (2008). Sibling size and investment in children’s education: an Asian instrument. Journal of Population Economics, 21(4): 855–875. Malaviya, P. & Bhagat, N.K. (2013).Urban poverty and health risk factors: A case study of slum dwellers of Jammu (J&K) India. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 2(3), 1645-1670. Mangione, P. L. & Speth, T., (2008). The transition to elementary school: a framework for creating early childhood continuity through home, school, and community partnership. The Elementary School Journal 98 (4), 381–397. Martine, G., (2007). State of the world population: unleashing the potential of urban growth. New York: United Nations Population Fund, 2007. Munir, M. A. A., Hassan, A. S., Ali, A., & Witchayangkoon, B. (2019). A study of space syntax of spaces for the urban poor: Larimer county food bank and Capslo homeless shelter. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(10), 10A10J, 1-13. Qadeer, M. A. (1983). Urban Development in the Third World. Vanguard Book Ltd, Lahore. P.190. Qian, N., (2013). Quantity-quality and the one child policy: The one child disadvantage in school enrollment. Working paper. The News (2020). Pakistan’s literacy rate stands at 58pc. The News Pakistan. Tsujita, Y. (2013). Factors that prevent children from gaining access to schooling: A study of Delhi slum households. International Journal of Educational Development, 33(4), 348–357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2012.08.001. Uinted Nation. (2015). The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. Transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1, New York, USA. UN-Habitat. (2013). State of the World’s cities 2012/2013: prosperity of cities. Cambridge, UK: United Nations Human Settlements Programme. Wambugu, A. (2011). The effects of educational attainment on employment outcomes in Kenya. International Journal of Education Administration and Policy Studies, 3(7), 94-102. World Bank. (1999). World Bank Development Indicators report, Washington, D.C. Riaz Ahmed is a PhD Scholar, Department of Economics, Preston University Islamabad Campus, Pakistan. His area of interest is Development Economics especially, slums.

Dr. Atta Ullah Khan is an Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Preston University Islamabad Campus. He earned his Ph.D in Economics from PMAS, Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi. He is interested in Sustainable Development, Governance, Economic Analysis, Social Exclusion, Applied Economics, Development Studies, Developing Countries, Case Studies, Local Governance, Gender and Development.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11F

IMPACTS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN BANGLADESH 1

2,3

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker , Bo Yang , Wang Tingzhi , 5 6,7 8,9 Aditi Chakrovorty , Md Abdus Salam , Nazmul Huda 1

School of Political Science and Public Administration, Neijiang Normal University, Neijiang, CHINA. School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, CHINA. 3 Sichuan Radio and TV University, Chengdu, CHINA. 4 Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, CHINA. 5 The East Asia Study Center, University of Dhaka, BANGLADESH. 6 Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, BANGLADESH. 7 Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Nagoya, JAPAN. 8 Department of Humanities, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, BANGLADESH. 9 Department of Safety System & Construction Engineering, Kagawa University, JAPAN. 2

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 09 January 2020 Received in revised form 27 April 2020 Accepted 08 May 2020 Available online 14 May 2020

Migration is an indispensable part of an economy. The purpose of this article was to explore the linkage between poverty and migration through evidence. The study was based on a quantitative approach and used a demographic household survey (1991 to 2011) data accompanied by a theoretical discussion. The theoretical evidence showed that the relationship between poverty and migration was not simple rather than vice-versa. The relationship showed three ways such as migration as a factor of poverty, poverty as a major reason for migration as well as migration as an outcome of poverty. Empirical evidence showed that migration had a great impact on the reduction of poverty at not only the individual level but also the household level, community level as well as national level. It also revealed that internal migration depended on the socio-economic, cultural, and demographic factors in Bangladesh such as low income, unemployment, social inequality, higher and quality education, unsatisfactory life leading, and natural disasters like flood, drought, and riverbank erosion. A target-oriented pro-poor policy is required to enhance the off-farm job opportunity, basic public and social services, and disaster management so that people can stay in rural areas with a sustainable livelihood.

Keywords:

Rural-urban migration; Rural-city migration; Political economy; Poverty reduction; Migration factors; Migration reasons; Migration flow; Public policy; Famine-drive migration; Migration rate; Poverty-forced migration; Migration for sustainable development.

Disciplinary: Multidisciplinary (Economics, Migration and Mobility Studies, Development Studies, Sociology). ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH. *Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

1. INTRODUCTION Poverty is a significant cause of migration (Sarker, 2016). Mainly poverty works as the main aspect of every action of it. When there is no work and the abdomen is vacant, a man tries his best to succeed. In the same way when the indigent doesn't succeed to nourish themselves in their local cities have to see the starving encounters of their dearest children and get possibilities, even after trying core, to get rid of poverty, they are forced emigrate to another place. Because of this poverty, they are now the population of cities (Ahamad et al., 2013). Migration has become a vital part of the present international economic system. Truly, 214 thousand individuals were living abroad as migrants. Truly, an approximated US$440 billion was remitted globally by global migrants (United Nations, 2013). The variety of individuals who move within nationwide boundaries is much higher than global migrants. It has been approximated that the variety of inner migrants is nearly four times the variety of global migrants (UNICEF, 2010). Both inner and globally migrations can have significant growth effects for source and location places. UN systems engaged in migration plans, research and government usually maintain that migration can help to eliminate poverty and activate financial and social growth if favorable coverage is functional at international, local and nationwide stages, showing the interest of both source and location places. The proof is growing on the linkages between migration and growth at both international and nationwide stages. However, the definite evidence is yet to appear on backlinks between migration and poverty (Kimura & Chang, 2017). This study evaluates the present literary works and finds evidence connecting migration and poverty, as well as migration and growth. The lowest groups in any society are often sidestepped by financial growth and it is quite true for individuals of non-urban places. There is a trend in reducing poverty since freedom, still, a wide array of non-urban individuals (35.2%) is living below the poverty line (BBS, 2015). Rural poverty results from a deficiency of assets, restricted financial possibilities, and inadequate knowledge and abilities as well as disadvantages based on public and governmental inequalities (World Bank, 2008). Without possibilities for adequate earnings in the non-urban places, hardship is being improved and this pressured many non-urban inadequate to seek a career elsewhere, leading to a massive rural-urban migration (Olopade et al., 2019). Migration minimizes the population pressure especially in the non-urban places which stimulate financial conditions and minimizes rural poverty (Ramos et al., 2020). The facility and career opportunity in urban areas are better than rural areas which stimulate rural-urban migration (Ali et al., 2020). The occurrence of hardship is greater in non-urban places than that of the city places. The reduction rate in the non-urban sections of poverty is also greater in non-urban places than the city places. It may be happened due to rural-urban migration (Sultana & Fatima, 2017). There are few types of migration usually found in the society of Bangladesh like (i) rural-urban migration includes the movement of individuals from non-urban places to towns of the same nation for searching new opportunities; (ii) seasonal migration focuses individualâ€™s shift for searching job in a specific season and (iii) return migration includes the voluntary come back of migrants to the previous place from migrated place. Often, adolescents are migrating to nearer town to earn money. The latest studies are on rural to urban internal migration in the aspect of poverty showed that seasonal and circular internal labor migrants were more prevalent among the poor (Sikder et al., 2017). In this article, an attempt has been made to discuss all kinds of migration sources, both in

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, Bo Yang, Wang Tingzhi, Aditi Chakrovorty, Md Abdus Salam, Nazmul Huda

regular and irregular conditions and short-term and long-term situations. Internal migration has been focused in some studies such as rural-urban migration and policy response (Voss et al., 2001; Lall et al., 2006; Wang, 2008), internal migration and child labor (Binci & Giannelli, 2016), internal migration and poverty trap (Haan & Yaqub, 2008; Guriev & Vakulenko, 2015; Zhang, 2017), internal migration and livelihood (Adjei et al., 2017; Schiff, 2008), poverty alleviation (Awuse, 2013) at the international case as well as Bangladesh cases such as internal migration and livelihood (Al-Amin, 2010; Chowdhury et al., 2012), development nexus (Afsar, 2003), remittance (Sikder et al., 2017; Buchenau, 2008); food security (Bruyn, 2010), and drought (Chakrabarty & Chakrabarty, 2017) but very few of them concentrated on the impact of internal migration on poverty alleviation. Therefore, this study intends to fill the research gap by addressing the research questions: (a) What are the causes of internal migration? (b) Is there any effect of internal migration on poverty alleviation? and (c) Is poverty a root cause of internal migration?

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 MIGRATION AND POVERTY Migration has been an extended earnings strategy in Bangladesh. Nowadays, poverty is a key driver of the rural-urban migration in Bangladesh. The city dwellers are far less reliant on farming. Moreover, dependency on off-farming actions among the non-urban individuals is mentionable recently which motivates migration to urban areas for better earnings possibilities. Furthermore, the principle aspect that draws the non-urban the indigent to the city center is the rapid expansion of non-agricultural areas. Another intra-related aspect that motivates the non-urban individuals Bangladesh to move into city places is the frequent repetition of the organic catastrophe which seriously damaged farming growth and caused meals crisis and lack of employment, particularly for those who typically depends on farming actions as a means to earn their daily earnings (Siddiqui, 2012). So, it is obvious that the lowest portion, often cannot move since sources are needed to do so. This often led to a debate about the link between migration and growth. Study on several literary works relevant to rural-urban migration assesses that, in comparison with the other least western world, a greater part of rural-urban migration in Bangladesh is because of the powerful forcing aspects relatively on one side and powerful pulling aspects on the contrary (World Bank, 2007). Bruyn (2010) described poverty as the total absence of possibilities, accompanied by high levels of undernourishment, starvation, uneducated, lack of education, mental and physical ailments, emotional and public uncertainty, disappointment, sadness and despondency for the future. Poverty is also characterized by a chronic shortage of monetary, public, and governmental contributions, relegating individuals to the exemption, preventing accessibility to the benefits of monetary and social development, and thereby restricting their social development (Buchenau, 2008). All these explanations determine poverty from an extensive viewpoint, providing specific requirements such as the condition of employment and earnings, food security, quality of shelter, accessibility to knowledge, wellbeing, and extent of social and financial inclusion.

*Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

2.2 THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE The study of inner migration is a key significance in social sciences as well as financial aspects and it comes out not only the activity of people between one spot to another position inside the nation but also impacts on livelihoods and concrete development (Figure 1). Internal migration relies on the socio-economic, market and social aspects like great lack of employment rate, low income, and great inhabitantsâ€™ development, imbalanced submission of the area, the requirement for higher education, prior migration styles and discontentment with real estate.

Figure 1: A conceptual model of migration decision making Source: Weeks (2008) and Al-Amin (2010). An attempt has been made to elucidate the reasons for migration, migration decisions and financial factors with their influences by well-established theories like the neoclassical theory, the new economic theory and the network theory. 2.2.1 NEOCLASSICAL THEORY The neoclassical theory is the oldest migration theory that works on both the micro-level and macro-level. It mainly deals with wages which motivated individual for immigration and the various levels of wages which creates an economic balance among various areas (Harris & Todaro, 2015). It also states that differences in wage levels help people to motivate them to move from one place to another due to demand and supply of labor in specific areas. The wage levels are low in those places where labor supply is high on the other hand the wage level is high where labor supply is low. It can be balanced which wage region got sufficient labor supply. Therefore, the migration can be minimized by ensuring equal resource distribution in different areas and depends on the condition of the labor market (Oâ€™reilly, 2012). There are push and pull factors which influences by labor availability. This concept is also used through the microeconomic plan. It is based on the foundation that people create their minds emigrate not the only platform on the wages but also a preliminary rumor in human capital that can improvement their financial efficiency and on the whole quality of

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, Bo Yang, Wang Tingzhi, Aditi Chakrovorty, Md Abdus Salam, Nazmul Huda

life (Massey et al., 1993). They consider their locations according to where they will get the biggest return. People also consider psychological demands like leads of finding a career, the chance of being removed from the host country and the financial cost of migrants (Borjas, 1989). The concept indicates that consumption, knowledge, and experience also impact people for making their decision about migrations. 2.2.2 NEW ECONOMIC THEORY OF MIGRATION According to a new economic theory, people make their decision for the betterment of their households to overcome future barriers. In this circumstance, people do not take decisions individually so their decision making is done by consultation with other members of the family. It generally happens as risk minimization measures. The household wants to extend their dependency not only on income but also on the geographical base to reduce their economic and property losses. The risk of the total safety and wealth of the family can be reduced due to the work of the household members. It can be easily covered by the other members if any of the household members would be laid off or unable to work due to sickness or die (Massey et al., 1993). One family trying to improve their income compared to close relatives. Though migration does not solely depend on wage differences it is a certain level frustration of not having the excellent income to go with the well of the household that relative starvation. This idea shows that migrants try to extent the risk rather than just an increase in income and also not target the wage equilibrium. The main idea of this theory is that people subsidized their livelihood to limit the risk built into societies (Wickramasinghe & Wimalaratana, 2016). This idea better explains about the property owners and individual actions than the neoclassical concept. 2.2.3 NETWORK THEORY Chain migration happens when migration is going on its own way and slightly isolated from the driving forces which required it going in the prior place. Massey et al. (1993) mentioned that migrants set up interpersonal ties that connect them to previous migrants and non-migrants in origin and principle areas through ties of association, companionship and shared a social origin. The international migration increases due to lower the costs and risks of transformation and increases the expected net returns to migration (Gheasi & Nijkamp, 2017). This theory deals with the social networks of people and explains how people take their migration decision by consulting with other community people who already experience. After getting migration, they feel the interest to migrate there because it decreases their mental and monetary cost as well as increases social security (Harris & Todaro, 2015). Not only that social networks also help them to get access to the labor market easily and helps them easy to integrate into the host society. The social network is very important to create a hustle free migration to a new destination. Gradually it becomes a practice of way into adulthood for people of poor areas having diminutive to accomplish with economic supply and demand (Borjas, 1989). Individuals with different conditions normally have different stages of monetary well-being at the same level of income. Generally, poverty can be described as considering money. The individual needs to accomplish the lowest level of well-being not to be considered as poor. Everyone in the poverty range is taken to be similarly poorly off, and all those below the range are more intense off than all above it. Usually, the people who are living below the poverty line move to *Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

the urban area with a passion for enhancing their earnings. Although the evidence is limited and combined (Wickramasinghe & Wimalaratana, 2016). But the extremely poor people sometimes bound to migrate with bad conditions because of their belief as to the lower level and by which migration does not change their economic conditions, for example, the insured labor (Tian & Guan, 2008). This is happened due to the shifting of individuals for different reasons across or within the nation. A migrant could be an individual who goes across or within the nation to enhance particular livelihood; a sanctuary who passes across the boundary due to governmental and spiritual suppression; or by an individual who is displaced by natural disasters (Momayez & Atefeh, 2019). Still, the demographer neither could nor achieved to an agreement meaning of migration. This is because migration does not take place under a frequent situation rather the causes of migration are based on particular perspective in which they take place. It continues to be an essential job for the demographer to demonstrate why individuals shift from one spot to another (Khurram et al., 2020). An extensive concept of migration is required for this. This is because only the concepts of migration can best describe why individuals are moving from one spot to another within the broader financial and governmental perspective (Aamir & Iftikhar, 2020). For example, if migration in Bangladesh is proven as the result of the monetary aspect then, it could be fixed through the decentralization of the economic system within the nation. The fact is that often it is almost unachievable. Furthermore, migration was controlled by a push-pull process; that is, negative situation position (oppressive rules, large taxes, etc.) â€œpushâ€? individuals out and beneficial circumstances in an exterior place take them out (Sarker, 2016). The expense of migration is a significant barrier for the indigent who wants to go. Migrating smaller ranges happens upon lower costs, a statement which has led some to claim that the indigent seems to interact with more in short-range (internal) migration, such as non-urban to non-urban or non-urban to city migration (Tsukada, 2014). However, there are figures of important exclusions to this common concept. For example, in some cases ranges from non-urban places to household city migration centers may be higher than those to cross-border or local migration locations. For some, both the traveling range and the expense of worldwide migration may be less than for inner activity. Those who live in boundary places may choose to combination worldwide boundaries rather than shift internally. For example, a part of Bangladeshis and Indians who live on either side of the Benapole-Petrapole boundary take part in a career in Kolkata or Jessore rather than in Dhaka or Delhi, which are much further away. One of the reasons why the migrants are attracted to certain locations, in particular, is the available public investment and assistance systems there. In addition to public investment, price, and range, well-established northeastern hyperlinks may be an aspect (Sikder et al., 2017). However, as labor migration between Bangladesh and Indian is lawfully limited, individuals seem to go illegally.

3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN, DATA COLLECTION, AND ANALYSIS This study focused on the linkage between internal migration and poverty alleviation of Bangladesh through a quantitative approach accompanied by a theoretical approach. It used data from Bangladesh's demographic household survey from 1991-2011. Theoretical approaches such as

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, Bo Yang, Wang Tingzhi, Aditi Chakrovorty, Md Abdus Salam, Nazmul Huda

neoclassical theory, new economic theory as well as network theory were used to explore the evidence of linkage between internal migration and poverty. Besides, this study used information from various government reports, journal articles, books and newspapers to shape the article. It was conducted from February-April, 2017.

3.2 ETHICAL ISSUES This study is based on secondary data freely available in Bangladesh's demographic household survey from 1991 to 2011. All the ethical standards have been followed for using the data obtained from published documents of the government of Bangladesh.

Figure 2: Migration profile in Bangladesh (Source: BBS, Population Census (2011))

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 4.1 PROFILE OF MIGRATION IN BANGLADESH The people are working to create a new property that causes urbanization. Similarly, migration is a socioeconomic trend suffering from many complicated systems including public, emotional, *Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

financial, governmental, institutional, and other factors. Migration impacts the dimensions, framework, and development of communities (Uddin & Firoj, 2013). Migration may also affect the dimensions of the employees, the submission of employees by expertise, knowledge, market, and profession, a career position, benefits, investment, and efficiency. It also brings to public and emotional effects on both roots and locations. It requires activity from one property to another. Migration can be internal and international. Murata (2018) found that nearly two- thirds of emigration from non-urban to towns. The significance comes out not only from the activity of individuals between places but also from its impact on the lifestyles of individuals and city development. Generally, migration is a process of moving properties from one place to another. However, usually, rural-urban activity rules the sector of research and planning as its part in modifying the lifestyles of migrant family members both at the hometown and location (Imai et al., 2017). In Bangladesh, an enclosed migrant is described as someone who moves from his previous area to new areas, so that the area of location becomes the area of a regular property (Figure 2).

4.2 INTERNAL MIGRATION TREND The total internal migration was 13.5 thousand in 2011 while it was 11 thousand in 1991 and 12.5 thousand in 2004. It was increased to 1.5 thousand in 2004 from 1991. The rural to urban migration rate was higher among other internal migrations. It was gradually decreased from 5.62 in 1991 to 4.29 in 2011. The second highest internal migration was rural to rural migration rate; it was 8.6 in 1991 to 4.2 i.e. decreased gradually (Table 1). Table 1: Internal migration from 1991 to 2011 Internal migration 2011 2004 1991 Number of total migrants 13488973 12564448 11167791 Internal migration rate 9.7 9.34 10.02 Rural to Rural 4.20 2.99 8.6 Urban to Rural 0.36 0.38 1.42 Urban to Urban 0.85 26.41 28.04 Rural to Urban 4.29 4.79 5.62 Source: Population and Housing Census (2011) and (2015)

Barisal Division of Bangladesh was rated maximum possible creating the speed of development and development of people of Barisal was lower in Bangladesh, then respectively Khulna division. Some places from the Rajshahi division were also placed as the region of an origin (BBS, 2015). The incident of internal migration in 2011 was 9.7 indicating that among 100 inhabitants 9.7 people move internally from one location to another. This amount was 10.02 in 1991. And, in 2004, it was 9.34 which was nearly 0.36 less than in 2011 and 0.68 less than that of 1991. Though this rate was excellent in 2011 but 0.32% reduced than that of 1991. 4.2.1 INTER-DIVISIONAL MIGRATION Figure 3 shows the inter-divisional bivariate distribution of lifetime migrants according to birthplace and current residence in 2011 of Bangladesh. The maximum inter-divisional lifetime migration rate (31.24) was found in the Dhaka division due to as the capital of Bangladesh. People migrated from other divisions for earning money and better livelihood. The second-largest rate (21.27) was found in the Khulna division due to an industrial city.

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, Bo Yang, Wang Tingzhi, Aditi Chakrovorty, Md Abdus Salam, Nazmul Huda

Barisal

21% 33%

31%

Chittagong

9% 16%

Dhaka

7% 8%

Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet

Figure 3: Inter-divisional migration rate Source: Population and Housing Census (2011) and BBS (2015). 4.2.2 DIVISION WISE IN-MIGRATION The rate of in-migration was maximum (32.25) in 2011 due to people's movement from other divisions to Dhaka. All the earning facilities and employment opportunities are available in Dhaka so people migrated to Dhaka for earning money, fulfilling desire and better livelihood. The first column indicated that 75.06% of the individuals who live in the Barisal division were locally born and the remaining individuals moved from other places. The third column indicated that 57.51% of individuals of Dhaka local born and the remaining individuals moved from other places (13.13% from Khulna, 9.29% from Rajshahi, 8.09% from Rangpur and 5.04% from Chittagong). The vales indicate that the Dhaka division has the highest in-migration and lowest in Barisal division and the percentage of migrants was less than 50.0% in the other places (Figure 4).

Barisal Chittagong

2% 32%

58% 63%

3% 0%

Dhaka Khulna

2% 3%

Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet

Figure 4: Division wise in-migration rate Source: Population and Housing Census (2011) and BBS (2015) *Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

4.3 LINKAGE BETWEEN POVERTY AND MIGRATION Poverty is a major obstacle for the people of Bangladesh. 31.5% of the total population are living under the national poverty line (ADB, 2017). Poverty is one of the main causes of migration. It is an important factor for poverty reduction in Bangladesh. The relation between poverty and migration is complex. This relationship was found in three ways like migration as a factor of poverty, poverty as a major reason for migration as well as migration as an outcome of poverty. According to development theory, as a heterogeneous group, poor people's representation is noticeable but practically they were deprived of access to powers, resources, and control (Akhter & Bauer, 2014). The people are experienced by different vulnerabilities which shaped their livelihood as a poor in Bangladesh. That is why many people choose migration as a means of poverty alleviation. Since there were no available options to tackle poverty so they took migration as a means for survival and livelihood security (Adjei et al., 2017). The lacks of opportunities like shelter, education, health treatment, and employment are the major responsible factors for migration. As a result, people think of themselves as poor which created by migration. It stimulates them to further migration for improving their life and livelihood. Sometimes, the rural poor people faces a natural disaster like flood, cyclone, tornado, and river erosion which damages their houses, physical assets, livestock, poultry and other daily necessity items (Al-Amin, 2010). As a result, they could not carry on their livelihood in the countryside as usual, so they migrate to the city for earning money and carrying on daily life (Figure 5). In the city area, the migrated people could earn money because jobs are available.

Figure 5: Linkages between major factors of internal migration and poverty alleviation Source: Authorâ€™s contribution. Some people could lead their life as usual but migrated people in the city area faces some difficulties like shelter problem, water and sanitation problem, health problems, childrenâ€™s education problem and social security problems. Migrated women in the city area often harassed at their working place (Chakrabarty & Chakrabarty, 2017). Sometimes people migrate to other cities or return to the countryside to leading a better life and livelihood. Migration is dependent on the situation and characteristics of the people who were intended to migration as well as demographic, cultural and socio-economic factors which sometimes force them to migrate from one place to another place within a country (Etzold & Mallick, 2015).

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, Bo Yang, Wang Tingzhi, Aditi Chakrovorty, Md Abdus Salam, Nazmul Huda

4.4 IMPLICATION FOR POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS It is necessary to concentrate on the issues of the contribution of migration and urbanization. A large gap still remains between migration and urbanization. Migration and urbanization should be considered in the National Development Plan for ensuring sustainable socio-economic development (Zaman et al., 2010). Generally, rapid urbanization without vigilant planning can create a negative effect on sustainable development. Since migration rates are highest bound to Dhaka, the government should emphasize to develop all the big cities of the country for reducing migration flow to Dhaka. It will require a handsome investment for developing infrastructure and creating job opportunities for other cities of the country. This investment should focus the equal opportunities for urban citizens of all cities of Bangladesh so that people tend to migrate to other cities equally (Islam et al., 2013). A macro-level policy should be made by the government considering economic motivations, on-going economic expansion, and better management. Distributional equity and environmental vulnerabilities should be considered for making a plan in favor of migrated people (Kuhmonen et al., 2016). Since migration plays a key role in reducing poverty, it should be managed properly to facilitate reducing socio-economic failures. Rural-urban flows of migration should be a primary concern that emerges severe deprivations in urban areas (Kimura & Chang, 2017). Due to rural-urban flows of agricultural laborers, rural agriculture faces a shortage of labor that hampers the agricultural production of marginal, middle and large farmers. Evidence showed that the productivity level of urban areas is greater than in rural areas (Peou, 2016). That is why; people are interested in migrating to major cities of the country. A new strategic focus is necessary to address high growth, social equity, and national urbanization properly. It is implied that the private sector should come forward to absorb surplus labor for equal growth in the rural as well as urban areas. New forms of decentralization are necessary at the local level for empowering urban and rural people to face the challenges. The rural economy should be improved for managing rural-urban migration, increasing agricultural production, and off-farm job opportunities (Radel et al., 2018). It can be developed through developing infrastructure, communication, marketing channels, value chain, and supply chain for agricultural products.

5. CONCLUSION This study revealed that rural-urban migration was higher than other internal migrations. The rural people were migrated for ensuring better livelihood opportunities. Evidence showed that 4.5 million people had done the internal migration in 2007 of which 75% of people moved within urban or rural areas. Poverty alleviation is a major goal in Bangladesh like other developing countries. A strong policy is necessary to reduce poverty affect the poor. Though developing countries governments have an urban bias in their development policies which helps a small part of the population of city dwellers by ignoring people of rural areas. The diversification process of rural livelihoods should be improved by increasing employment opportunities in off-farm activities in addition to traditional agriculture which enabling rural people to escape from poverty. Stronger interventions like creating income-generating activities, capability enhancement, motivational works and planned supportive activities should be ensured during a natural disaster as a disaster-prone country. The study also revealed that three key factors were responsible for internal migration such as *Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

economic factors, public services, and environmental factors. Firstly, people tend to migrate to city areas as they were economically poor and could not afford their livelihood and eventually fall into poverty. They migrated to overcome the poverty situation. Secondly, people usually faced low health care, education, no modern facilities, and public services in rural areas. So, they tend to migrate to urban areas for getting better public services. Thirdly, there were so many environmentally vulnerable areas in Bangladesh like a riverine island (char), and a coastal island that faces natural disaster regulatory. People of those areas tend to migrate to urban areas for obtaining better safety of life. This finding suggests that a proper pro-poor policy should be taken by the government to ensure off-farm job opportunities, providing better public and social services and environmental protection for rural people so that people feel better in the rural areas and leading their livelihood sustainably.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

7. REFERENCES ADB.

(2017). Basic 2017 statistics. Retrieved https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/298061/basic-statistics-2017.pdf

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Peou, C. (2016). Negotiating rural-urban transformation and life course fluidity: Rural young people and urban sojourn in contemporary Cambodia. Journal of Rural Studies, 44, 177–186. DOI: 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.02.002 Population and Housing Census. (2011). Population and housing census 2011: Socio-economic and demographic report. Retrieved from http://203.112.218.66/WebTestApplication/userfiles/Image/BBS/Socio_Economic.pdf Radel, C., Schmook, B., Carte, L., & Mardero, S. (2018). Toward a Political Ecology of Migration: Land, Labor Migration, and Climate Change in Northwestern Nicaragua. World Development, 108, 263–273. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.04.023 Ramos, M. E., Gibaja-Romero, D. E., & Ochoa, S. A. (2020). Gender inequality and gender-based poverty in Mexico. Heliyon, 6(1), e03322. DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03322 Sarker, R. (2016). Migration and Employment: A Study of Bangladeshi Male Migrant Workers in Malaysia. In K. F. Lian & et al. (Eds.), International Migration in Southeast Asia (p. 373). DOI: 10.1007/978-981-287-712-3_7 Schiff, M. (2008). On the underestimation of migration’s income and poverty impact. Review of Economics of the Household, 6(3), 267–284. DOI: 10.1007/s11150-008-9031-8 Siddiqui, T. (2012). Impact of migration on poverty and development. In Migrating out of Poverty (No. 2). Brighton BN1 9QN, United Kingdom. Sikder, M. J. U., Higgins, V., & Ballis, P. H. (2017). Remittance income and social resilience among migrant households in Rural Bangladesh. Remittance Income and Social Resilience among Migrant Households in Rural Bangladesh, 1–281. DOI: 10.1057/978-1-137-57771-9 Sultana, H., & Fatima, A. (2017). Factors influencing migration of female workers: a case of Bangladesh. IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 7(1), 4. DOI: 10.1186/s40176-017-0090-6 Tian, J. X., & Guan, M. (2008). A study on governmental aid of rural-urban migration of poverty peasants. Proceedings of 2007 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering, ICMSE’07 (14th), 2405–2410. DOI: 10.1109/ICMSE.2007.4422198 Tsukada, K. (2014). Seasonal Deprivation and Microcredit in Northern Bangladesh. In A. S. Shonchoy (Ed.), Seasonality and Microcredit (pp. 9–20). DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-55010-5_3 Uddin, M. N., & Firoj, M. (2013). Causes and Consequences of Rural-Urban Migration in Bangladesh: An Empirical Study in Chittagong City. International Journal of Ethics in Social Sciences, 1(1). UNICEF. (2010). Understanding Urban Inequalities in Bangladesh: A prerequisite for achieving Vision 2021. Retrieved from http://www.unicef.org/bangladesh/Urban_paper_lowres.pdf United Nations. (2013). International Migration Policies: Government Views and Priorities. Washington DC, US. DOI: 10.4135/9781412952446.n605 Voss, P., Hammer, R., & Meier, A. (2001). Migration analysis : A case study for local public policy. Population Research and Policy, 20, 587–603. Retrieved from http://www.springerlink.com/index/KM2121GAKLFBN2MV.pdf Wang, D. (2008). Rural-Urban Migration and Policy Responses in China: Challenges and Options. In ILO Asian Regional Programme on Governance of Labour Migration. Weeks, J. R. (2008). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. Belmont CA 94002 USA: Wadsworth Publishing, pp. 1-157. Wickramasinghe, A. A. I. N., & Wimalaratana, W. (2016). International Migration and Migration Theories. Social Affairs: A Journal for the Social Sciences, 1(5), 13–32.

Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, Bo Yang, Wang Tingzhi, Aditi Chakrovorty, Md Abdus Salam, Nazmul Huda

World Bank. (2007). Dhaka: improving living conditions for the urban poor. In Bangladesh Development Series Paper (No. 17). DOI: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BANGLADESHEXTN/Resources/295759-1182963268987/d hakaurbanreport.pdf World Bank. (2008). Poverty Assessment for Bangladesh: Creating opportunities and bridging the East-West Divide (No. 27). Dhaka, Bangladesh. Zaman, A. H. uz, Alam, K. M. T., & Islam, M. J. (2010). Urbanization in Bangladesh: Present Status and Policy Implications. ASA University Review, 4(2), 1–16. Zhang, H. (2017). Opportunity or new poverty trap: Rural-urban education disparity and internal migration in China. China Economic Review, 44(2016), 112–124. DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.03.011 Dr Md Nazirul Islam Sarker is an Associate Professor in the School of Political Science and Public Administration, Neijiang Normal University, Sichuan, China. He obtained a PhD from Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. He completed his Bachelor of Science in Agriculture and Master in Agricultural Extension Education from Bangladesh Agricultural University. He also completed MBA from the Commonwealth of Learning. His research area includes Smart Agriculture, Urban and Disaster Management, Agricultural Extension, Governance and Public Policy.

Bo Yang is a PhD Candidate of School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. He is also working as an Associate Professor of Sichuan Radio and TV University, Chengdu, China. His research area includes Governance, Public Policy, Public Management and Administration.

Wang Tingzhi is a PhD Candidate of Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. He has published a couple of scientific articles. His research area includes Management, Business Economics, Governance, Public Policy, and Public Management.

Aditi Chakrovorty is working as Research Assistant of The East Asia Study Center, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh. In 2019, she has attended a BRI fellowship in Sichuan University, Chengdu, China on International Relations. As well as she has completed a Bachelor of Social Sciences and Masters of Social Sciences from University of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Her research area includes International Relations, Diplomacy, Soft Power, Management, Public Policy, and Public Management.

Md Abdus Salam is a PhD Candidate of Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan. He is an Assistant Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh. His research area includes Agricultural Economics, Labour Economics, Public Management and Agribusiness.

Nazmul Huda is a PhD Candidate of the Department of Safety System & Construction Engineering, Kagawa University, Japan. He is also working as an Assistant Professor of Department of Humanities, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh. His research area includes Sociology, Livelihood, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability.

*Corresponding author (Md N. I. Sarker). Tel: +86-13219555057 sarker.scu@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.210

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11G

DETERMINANTS OF CUSTOMER CHURN: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS FROM SAUDI ARABIA Yasir Ali Soomro

, and Ahmed Nafe Al-Sehli

Department of Marketing, Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, KINGDOM of SAUDI ARABIA. 2 Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, KINGDOM of SAUDI ARABIA. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 06 February 2020 Received in revised form 08 April 2020 Accepted 30 April 2020 Available online15 May 2020

This research main objective finds the determinants of churn that affect the telecom industry of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). To analyze the churn predictions to retain the customers in the telecom industry, the paper takes factors of churns that create obstacles in the retention of the customers. The variables of the study included switching cost, price, value-added services, and service quality relevant to the telecom industry. The questionnaire was created using adopted items from various studies and was used to collect the data from 315 respondents through non-restricted random sampling. Data reliability and analysis were performed on IBM SPSS®20 software and multiple regressions were applied. The key findings that lower switching costs of cellular network providers significantly lead to customer churn (MNP). This study found that switching costs are not considered a factor if a customer is dissatisfied or innovator in nature to try other companies’ services. Whereas, low service quality, high price structure, and less value-added encourage customers to switch service. The telecom industry should improve its service quality since it is considered one of the most important factors in churning in any industry. This paper would be highly beneficial for the managers of the telecom industry in KSA and other Middle Eastern telecommunication companies.

Keywords:

Switching behavior; Service quality, Switching cost; Value-Added services; Client churn rate; Customer churn; Mobile Number Portability (MNP); Pricing structure; Mobile service provider.

Disciplinary: Management and Marketing Sciences. 2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Today, the service sector contributes more than 60 % to worldwide GDP and still grows, and telecommunication service has a massive contribution towards the economy of any country (CIA, 2008; 2013). Every single communication over the globe is occurring through telecommunication (Akbar et al., 2017). In the past, the telecommunication sector was a monopoly in Saudi Arabia with a *Corresponding author (Yasir Ali Soomro). E-mail: dr.yasir@hotmail.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11G http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.211

Government-owned company named Saudi Telecom Company (STC) established in 1998. In 2004, its monopoly was broken when MOBILY entered the market and since then other new companies were given licenses, and currently, there are a total of five companies including STC, MOBILY, ZAIN, FRENDI, and VIRGIN. The Saudi government has been making efforts to transform the industry to improve competition and service for people. The effects of liberalization were evident on incumbent monopoly (Mumuni et al., 2017) that service quality perceptions and customer attitudes enhanced during early post-liberalization duration; however, they declined somewhat afterward. In the digital and data age, telecommunication companies contribute a lot to the development of countries' economies. Among the different communication and telecommunications industry sectors, the phone and mobile services’ market has rapidly increased market share and adoption. In 2013, the Communications and Information Technology Commission (CITC) issued a decision policy that allowed customers to transfer their number to another service provider; this decision affected the company’s retention and sales. The competitiveness has influenced the perception of customers, as clients are faced with a large set of offers that allowed the customer to compare several options and choose one that is the best operator. (Kim & Yoon, 2004; Kim & Wong, 2016) The mobile telecommunications market in Saudi Arabia is a competitive one. By the end of the first two quarters of 2016, the total mobile penetration was approximately 152 % that sums up to 48 million mobile phone subscribers in Saudi Arabia (Soomro, 2019). In this era of intense competition, each operator wants to retain loyal customers based on the provision of high-quality service as it has consequences on firms' revenue. This research thus determines the factors that affect the switching behavior (mobile network portability) among customers that will help the operators consider and make proper value addition in their service to avoid the churn. Thus, this study finds the determinants of churn among customers that affect the telecom industry of Saudi Arabia that can help stakeholders including managers, CITC governing authority to understand the market and give supports to small companies and increase telecom competition.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 CUSTOMER CHURN Chum is the term used to describe customer attrition or loss. The inclination of clients to discontinue service on a given day is known as customer churn (Jahromi et al., 2010; Chandar et al., 2006). Further, Churn takes place when customers switch between one-service operators to another due to several reasons. These days, consumer churn has come to be the primary worry for companies in all of the industries. And irrespective of the industry, firms are facing a challenge dealing with this problem. Constant churn can hurt a company due to low-profit margins, losing an extremely good deal of price, and reduced in referrals customers from existing customers. There are two fundamental ways to manage customer churn: ‘untargeted methods’ which depend upon the superior product and big marketing campaigns to grow brand loyalty and retention of customer base, and ‘focused techniques’ which rely upon figuring out customers who are expected to switch, and then offer them with a direct incentive or personalize a service plan to live (Burez & Van den Poel, 2007). The focused procedures fall into two classes: reactive and proactive. In a reactive

Yasir Ali Soomro, Ahmed Nafe Alsehli

technique, an organization waits until clients communicate the organization to cancel their (provider) subscription and then the company gives the customer offers (Jahromi et al., 2010). Customer retention is an essential element resulting in superior business performance in service industries (Wong, 2010).

2.2 SWITCHING BEHAVIOR The literature on customer churn (switching) has examined its possible antecedent (Dick, 1994: Bolton, 2004). Keaveney (1995) presented the model for customer switching behavior, containing eight predominant factors which were crucial to switching behavior, particularly, price, inconvenience caused by anything, main services failures, servicescape failures, and unsatisfactory responses & performance of employees in service, competitive problems, moral issues, and involuntary elements. Amongst these antecedents, the pricing issue stands out as the most effective factor for switching (Kau et al., 2012; Colgate, 2001). To preserve their competitive role and market share, service operators should pay attention to making plans and executing customer retention strategies (Lee, 2001: Wong, 2010). Customer satisfaction intermediates the relationship between customer value and loyalty. Organizations have moved past contending on delivery and the price of the core service to the advancement of their value-added service and quality of service offered. Moreover, the benefits from high quality have been observed to be vital – however not adequate – the main predictor for customer loyalty towards the service firm. Quality is an important element in your organizations’ product or service but not enough for customer loyalty (Aydin, 2005).

2.3 SWITCHING COST The primary factor of the switching barrier is switching costs (Kau et al., 2012; Colgate & Lang, 2001). Switching costs are turning into a noteworthy issue for rivalry in the market of mobile communications (Grzybowski, 2008; Maicas et al., 2009; Srinuan et al., 2011). Switching cost is rising day by day, which along these lines increases repurchase goals and negative verbal exchange and at last, switching (Jones et al., 2007; Ghouri et al., 2010). The switching cost is the cost brought about when shifting from one service provider to another, this cost includes psychological cost along with time, and monetary cost (Kau et al., 2012; Dick & Basu, 1994). The most important consequences of the firm strategy and competition are switching costs. Several studies (Farrell & Klemperer, 2007; Maicas et al., 2009) conclude that the existence of switching costs affects the power of the company on market, forces it to charge higher prices and minimize service or product quality, three create entry limitations and, four obtain irregular returns.

2.4 SERVICE QUALITY Service quality is very vital to service industries, especially in the telecom industry (Cronin Jr & Tylor, 1992; Ofir & Simonson, 2001). The capability of company managers to comprehend and capitalize on how the clients evaluate service quality has direct impacts on firms’ performance and success (Jain, 2004; Peng, 2014). Sebastianelli and Tamimi's (2002) findings that there are different impacts of different service quality levels. For instance, greater service quality will encourage favorable behavioral outcomes among customers and consequently reduce the likelihood of adverse behavior such as switching (Soomro et al., 2012). To show high service quality standards, firms get certified and participate in various awards *Corresponding author (Yasir Ali Soomro). E-mail: dr.yasir@hotmail.com

show through different programs, e.g., ISO certifications, the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA), and Six Sigma certification, to signify quality performance in both service industry & manufacturing (Prybutok, 2011; Zu & Douglas, 2008; Peng, 2014). Poor service and product quality do not only disappoint the customer expectation but lead to customer switching to competing brands and their word of mouth (WOM) also influences other clients (Gilbert, 2004). From research evidence, converting a new customer is much more costly than retaining an existing customer (Szmigin, 1998). The conceptualization of service quality has its foundations in anticipating and filling the gap between clients' desires and actual services delivered (Chen & Aritejo, 2008). Quality perception, perceived value, and customer satisfaction have proved to be a predictor of the behavioral plan (Chen & Aritejo, 2008; Chen & Chen, 2010; Cronin, 2000; Petrick, 2004). It has also been extensively accepted satisfaction and perceived value are directly influenced by service quality (Baker, 2000; Chen & Aritejo, 2008; Cronin, 2000; Chen & Cheng, 2012). The visible service quality prompts fulfillment, which is fundamentally a result of the intelligent relationship between the service supplier and the client (Gronroos, 1984; Lee, 2000). In earlier studies, service quality of Telco companies have been tested with modified “SERVQUAL” model (Chen, & Aritejo, 2008; Johnson, 2002; Kang, 2004; Van-Der-Wal, 2002), to investigate, for example, quality of calls, pricing structure, smart device, easy procedures, value-added services, and client bolster (Lee, 2001; Lim, 2006; Chen & Cheng, 2012). 2.4.1 CALL QUALITY Quality is the main concern that immediately affects customer satisfaction for mobile subscribers (Kim, 2005). The client expects a sensible time between placing a call and the actual connection to the receiving call. The voice quality, clearance, and distortion-free are aspects leading to better call quality. 2.4.2 CONNECTIVITY Although faced with a multi-service explosion by mobile operators, telecommunication services are the primary and important services rendered by cellular service providers as they provide the maximum of simple and giant services for cellular users. The first-class community is important for the first class of cellular telecommunication services. The quality is defined by the performance of the underestimated cellular community in terms of accessibility, balance, and reliability of the sign. The overall performance strongly affects the advantage of competitive mobile companies (Gans, 2000). 2.4.3 COMPLIANT MANAGEMENT Ahn et al. (2006) identified the number of complaints has a positive relationship to the probability of churn. Sulaimon et al. (2016) revealed that undesirable response to complaints made or no solution to the problems results in poor service evaluation and hence, to terminate the contract. Most dissatisfied customers are due to unresolved complaints. Complaining customers take two actions to reduce their dissonance; first is personal actions that include switching from a service provider and spreading negative word-of-mouth; the Second step is to complain to official consumer rights or trade associations for a lawsuit and compensatory outcome (Ahn et al., 2006). Complaints are a major factor resulting in switching or customer churns (Keaveney, 1995). Reducing the number of complaints and dissatisfied customers is to implement the “Complaint Management” system. If

Yasir Ali Soomro, Ahmed Nafe Alsehli

complaints are professionally followed and dealt resulting in customer satisfaction. Thus, complaint management is another element that mobile companies cannot afford to overlook (Akbar et al., 2017).

2.5 VALVE-ADDED SERVICES Value-added service features grows constantly as cellular telecom generation evolves rapidly. Cost-added services affect customer satisfaction notably (Kim & Yoon, 2004; Kim, 2005). Client value affects satisfaction, retention, and long-term profitability (Ku, 2009). Krishnan (2008) discovered that the first-rate signs to decide whether or not people will suggest a service provider customer support and the way it is offered (i.e. value-added services). Further, clients that purchase more, and use bundles of service categories tend to be loyal.

2.6 PRICING STRUCTURE The price is an effective factor to customer gratification for cell phone subscribers; (Kim & Yoon, 2004; Kim, 2005) Supporting customers to keep the money, by using matching them to the superior fee plans, is a viable method to lessen client churn rate. Formerly, (Joo, Jun, & Kim, 2002)they have recommended that average plan optimization is beneficial to Wi-Fi providers from a long-term economic attitude (Wong, 2009; Lim, 2006).

2.7 MOBILE DATA Past research proves that general service quality radiates from a fast and stable and quality of internet network (He & Yan, 2010; Quach et al., 2016) in the telecom market, the quality of the network includes the strong network signal and coverage (Wang et al., 2004; Quach et al., 2016) the number of downloading errors, and downloading speed errors (Vlachos & Vrechopoulos, 2008). This implies at this point that any interruption in the availability of the Internet can induce customer evaluation of service ratings as low.

2.8 PROPOSED CONCEPTUAL RESEARCH MODEL The research empirically developed proposed model and variables are given in Figure 1.

Switching cost Pricing structure Value-added

Customer Churn

Services Quality • • •

Call quality Connectivity Compliant management

Figure 1: Propose Conceptual Research Model.

*Corresponding author (Yasir Ali Soomro). E-mail: dr.yasir@hotmail.com

2.9 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES H1: Lower switching cost of cellular network provider significantly lead to customer churn (due to Mobile Number Portability (MNP)). H2: The higher prices of cellular network providers significantly lead to customer churn (MNP). H3: Less value-added services offered by cellular network providers induce users to churn (MNP). H4: Low service quality of cellular network providers significantly leads to customer churn (MNP).

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Based on the deductive approach, a hypothesis testing design was adopted and questionnaires are used as a research tool. The population is all mobile users in Saudi. The sample was determined through non-restricted random sampling and a total of 315 respondents filled the questionnaire distributed through Google survey during July-August 2019. Respondents’ belonged to the millennial generation living in Saudi Arabia ranging between the age of 18-38. Table 1 presents the respondents’ demographic details. Sample participants were 70.9% males, 55.6% with a bachelor’s degree holder, and 31.6% with high school graduates. Participants had more than one SIM card of different companies and we found 67.5% had STC SIM card and 40.6% had MOBILY SIM card and only 14.4% had ZAIN SIM. The research questionnaire was finalized and all construct items were chosen and modified from previous literature available (see Table 2). Table 1: Demographic detail of respondents (Sample (N)= 315). Items Gender Male

Percentage

Female

29.1

Age 18-24 25-31 32-38

23.1 36.6 40.3

70.9

Item Education No education High School Bachelor’s Master’s Ph.D Telecom Company STC Mobily ZAIN

Percentage 0.3 31.6 55.6 12.2 0.3 67.5 40.6 14.4

Table 2: Questionnaire Construct Items Question Items Switching cost 1 2 3 4 5

Switching your SIM to another provider would cause too many problems Switching your SIM to another provider would be too expensive I think it is more costly for me in terms of time and money trying to switch to another telecom company General, it is a hassle switching to a new network operator Switching to another network service provider would take a lot of energy, time, and monetary cost on my part.

Sources Kim et al. (2016) Nimako et al. (2014) Edward et al. (2010); Yang & Peterson, 2004

Price 1 2 3 4

Compared to what I pay and what I get from my current operator, I think it is value for money Call Prices of my current services provider are very competitive Prices of my current services provider are expensive than another competing service provider Data bundles of my service provider are very expensive Yasir Ali Soomro, Ahmed Nafe Alsehli

Edward, et al. (2010)

Table 2: Questionnaire construct items (continue). Question Items Service quality 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sources

My network provider has a wide coverage My service provider has no call drops/breakage in calls My Network has Strong signals were ever I go I stay with a provider because the number of network errors is low. My services provider provides very low packages for on-net calls and off-net calls. The provider has excellent connection quality everywhere When I face any problem, the service provider can immediately solve it When I request any changes in my contract, the service operator still holds a friendly attitude I would also share my negative experience with other customers I always have an exceptional service experience during every interaction with the service provider

Asiedu & Sarfo (2013) Edward et al. (2010) Asiedu & Sarfo (2013) Peng et al. (2014) Malhotra & Malhotra (2013) Quach et al. (2016) Liu et al. (2011)

Switching Behavior 1 2 3 4

How likely it is that you may switch from your current service provider to another service provider Have you ever considered of changing your service provider Would you switch to another service provider due to higher brand image If I like a service provider, I rarely switch from it just to try someone different

Bansal et al. (2005)

Value Added service 1 2

Considering the trade-off between all of the costs and benefits of obtaining the service, the value of service provided by “my service provider ” is excellent Evaluating the amount I pay and what I get in return from my network operator compared to competing brands, I believe the company provides me with fair and good value.

Yang & Peterson (2004) Edward, et al. (2010)

4. RESULTS 4.1 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS Table 3 displays Cronbach Alpha reliability test result. Values higher from 0.7 are considered reliable. Thus, all the collected data for construct are highly reliable and can be used for data analysis to determine churn in the telecom industry. Table 3: Constructs Reliability Constructs Switching Behavior Switching cost (SC) Pricing structure (PS) Value Added (VA) Service Quality (SQ)

Mean 3.269 2.778 3.128 2.927 3.033

SD 0.770 0.897 0.555 1.011 0.729

Cronbachs Alpha 0.821 0.714 0.725 0.856 0.778

Table 4: The total effect assessment. Variables Total effect (R2= 14.3%; Q2=13.2% model significant at 0.05 level)

Beta Coefficient (t-value)

Percentile 95% confidence intervals

SC -0.054(-0.986) ns [-0.139; 0.046] PS 0.150 (2.764) * [0.060; 0.356] VA -0.158 (2.482) * [-0.216; -0.025] SQ -0.256 (3.877) * [-0.408; -0.133] 2 2 2 Note: R (coefficient of determination); Q (Adjusted R ); *Significant at the 0.05 level; ns indicates not significant at 95% confidence level

4.2 HYPOTHESES TESTING AND ANALYSIS Regression analysis was employed in this research study. The regression test observes the conditions where dependent variables are concurrently determined by independent variables. When the R square value is close to one, it suggests that the theoretical framework fits the collected data *Corresponding author (Yasir Ali Soomro). E-mail: dr.yasir@hotmail.com

very well. The value of beta is an effort to arrive at a more comparable regression coefficient. The ANOVA Table endorses the fitness of the model. Table 4 presents the summary of the multilinear regression model with R square and adjusted R square as 0.143 and 0.132. Even though the model is significant at 1 percent level, but R square and adjusted R square are shockingly low. This means that the variable used in this model are only capturing at most 14.3 percent change independent variable. Rest 85.7 percent is falling under residual. In the model, â€œswitching behaviorâ€? was taken as the dependent variable and all other variables, switching cost, service quality, pricing structure and value-added are the independent variables. If all independent variable assumes the value zero, then switching behavior will acquire 3.9 as its value. Also, the p-value of all independent variables except switching cost, were significant at one and five percent error level refer to Table 5.

4.3 RESULT OF HYPOTHESES H1: The switching cost has no significant impact on switching behavior due to having 0.325 significant levels with T stats of -.986 (see table 4). This means that customers do not consider switching costs while deciding to switch. Therefore, the network portability fee (normally 100 SAR) imposed by the operator does not stop from switching if a customer is dissatisfied or is an innovator in nature and personality. Table 5: Hypotheses summary. Hypotheses p-value Empirical conclusion H1 0.325 Not supported H2 0.006 supported H3 0.014 supported H4 0.001 supported Note: Significant at the 0.05 level

H2: The price structure has a significant impact on switching behavior due to having 0.006 significant levels with T stats of 2.764 (see Table 4). This means price structures and switching behavior are significantly related. Higher price packages of cellular network providers make the customer switch to other companies that offer better rates and services at a low price. H3: The value-added has a significant impact on switching behavior due to having 0.014 significant levels with T stats of 2.482 (see Table 4). This means, value-added and switching behavior are significantly related. Hence, if the company fails to provide value-added service then the customer is going to switch the network to a competing brand that has more value-added services. H4: The service quality has a significant impact on switching behavior due to having 0.000 significant levels with T stats of 3.877 (see Table 4). This implies, there exists a significant relationship between service quality and switching behavior. Poor service quality will lose customers.

5. CONCLUSION This research determines churn factors in the Saudi telecom industry. Although R-square in regression models is quite low, it is significant in the context of our objective. the model variables played a significant role in churn in the telecom industry. Those variables are pricing structure,

Yasir Ali Soomro, Ahmed Nafe Alsehli

value-added and service quality; all these variables were significant and causing a significant change in independent variable i.e. switching behavior or churn. However, switching cost was insignificant so it is safe to conclude that when a customer switches from one service operator to another, switching cost does not affect his decision but the price, value-added and service quality does. Hence, primary reasons which lead to customer retention are price, value-added and service quality, not switching cost. Service quality is considered as an important factor for any firm. In this article, respondents remained neutral about service quality; this demonstrates that the telecom industry is not performing at their best to provide best quality service to their customer; if scenario remains, loyal customers will most likely switch to another service provider with better service quality and price structure, since there is no significant switching cost. Telecom companies should also offer several international and domestic calls and text offers to attract more customers. It is a recommendation for the company to analyze the pattern of its customers and then create a pricing structure and deals so that customers can get what they want from their service providers. Service providers can also collaborate with smartphone industries to offer attractive on the purchase of new smartphones; this idea alongside other creative ideas should be made a priority of service provider.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

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Soomro, Y. A. (2019). Understanding the Adoption of SADAD E-Payments: UTAUT Combined with Religiosity as Moderator. International Journal of E-Business Research (IJEBR), 15(1), 55-74. Soomro, Y. A., Hameed, D., Shakoor, R., Butt, A. S., & Khani, S. (2012). Factors Effecting Consumer Preferences in Airline Industry. Far East Journal of Psychology and Business,7(1), 63-79. Srinuan, P., Annafari, M., & Bohlin, E. (2011). An analysis of switching behavior in the Thai cellular market. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 61-74. Sulaimon, O. S., Emmanuel, O. E., & Bilqis, B. B. (2016). Relevant Drivers for CustomersChurn and Retention Decision in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunication Industry. Journal of Competitiveness, 8(3), 52-67 Szmigin M, B. H. (1998). Customer equity in relationship marketing. Journal of Consumer Marketing, 544–557. Van-Der-Wal, R. P. (2002). Service quality in a cellular telecommunications company: A South African experience. Managing Service Quality, 323 –335. Vlachos, A., & Vrechopoulos, P. (2008). Determinants of behavioral intentions in the mobile internet services market. Journal of Services Marketing, 280-291. Wang, Y., Hing-Po, L., & Yongheng, Y. (2004). An integrated framework for service quality, customer value, satisfaction: Evidence from China's telecommunication industry. Information Systems Frontiers, 325-340. Wong, k. (2009). Potential moderators of the link between rate plan suitability and customer tenure: A case in the Canadian mobile telecommunications industry. Journal of Database Marketing & Customer Strategy Management, 64–75. Wong, K. K.-K. (2010). Fighting churn with rate plan rightsizing: a customer retention strategy for the wireless telecommunications industry. The Service Industries Journal, 2261–2271. Yang, Z., & Peterson, R. (2004). Customer perceived value, satisfaction and loyal: The role of switching costs. Psychology & Marketing, 799-822. Zu, X., Fredendall, L. D., & Douglas, T. J. (2008). The evolving theory of quality management: the role of Six Sigma. Journal of Operations Management, 26(5), 630-650. Dr.Yasir Ali Soomro is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Marketing at the King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Saudi Arabia. He received his Doctorate degree in Marketing from top business school of Pakistan named Iqra University. He is a Certified Trainer from A.I.T Thailand. His main area of research is Consumer Behavior, Online and Offline both along with Branding Strategies.

Ahmed Nafe Alsehli is a field operator at Petro Rabigh refinery and petrochemical company, Saudi Arabia. He got his Master’s degree in Business Administration from King Abdulaziz University Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. His research focuses on Consumer Behaviour.

Trademarks Disclaimer: All products names including trademarks™ or registered® trademarks mentioned in this article are the property of their respective owners, using for identification and educational purposes only. Use of them does not imply any endorsement or affiliation.

Yasir Ali Soomro, Ahmed Nafe Alsehli

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11H

LEADERSHIP STYLES: RELATIONSHIP WITH ORGANIZATIONAL DISSENT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT MEDIATION ANALYSIS VIA CB-SEM APPROACH Muhammad Riaza 1

, Mumtaz Ali Junejo , Amir Hussain Shar

Institute of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 14 February 2020 Received in revised form 01 May 2020 Accepted 08 May 2020 Available online18 May 2020

This study examines the causal effects of leadership styles on organizational dissent, with the mediating role of conflict management. Aim population was the healthcare sector of doctors and paramedic staff of Sindh (N=480). The study is explanatory in design and quantitative in nature. Hypotheses were assessed through Covariance based-structural equation modeling (CB-SEM), which is a comprehensive statistical approach to assess the measurement and structural part of the model. The study outcome revealed that there is a negative relationship between leadership styles and organizational dissent (path-c). A positive significant relationship was observed between leadership styles and conflict management (path-a). Conflict management has a negative effect on organizational dissent (path-b) and lastly, conflict management mediates the relationship between leadership styles and organizational dissent among employees of the healthcare sector of Sindh (path-c’). The study results are essential for the healthcare sector to reduce prevailing dissent among organizations.

Keywords: Healthcare sector; Healthcare employees; HRM conflict management strategies; Coaching Leadership; Directing Leadership; Delegating Leadership; Facilitating Leadership.

Disciplinary: Management Sciences (HRM). 2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Human behavior in knowledge-based organizations is often a reflection of the way they are being gone in front. Thus, the styles of leading people are very much important. Modern business leadership affects a lot the organizations’ aggregate environments (Bennis, 2007). Positive or negative perceptions of employees provoke attitudes toward professional contributions and organizational productivity. Retaliating behavior among professionals reflects the negative approaches to leadership practices. Leadership styles are extremely crucial constructs in examining organizational performance. Many studies were done during the period of post-world war-II *Corresponding author (M.Riaza). Email: reazmalik@ymail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.212

(Cannella & Rowe 1995; Bass, 1985). Organizational performance vitally depends on successful leadership and helps to achieve organizational goals (Gordon & Yulk, 2004; Bass 1985). According to Yukl and Mahsud (2010), outcomes of apt & prompt leadership may increase the organization's output on several traits. Behind every positive perception, attitudes, and norm among employees, there is always a contribution of effective leadership. The negative behavior of employees is an exhibition of ineffective and inefficient leadership. Yukl et al. (2010) and Amabile et al. (2004) confirm negative outcomes of the workplace inefficient leadership such as absenteeism, work-related stress, and aggressive attitudes among employees. This study has considered leadership styles as an independent variable along with key dimensions suggested by Hersey & Blanchard Theory (like facilitating, coaching, and delegating and directing leadership styles). Employee's voice works as an indicator for organizations to overcome any misconduct and act as an imperative form of counteractive response for organizations. Concerns or questions, ideas, withholding information, and information about work-related issues are measured as very common among employees. However, there may be several reasons behind employees’ choice to remain silent; they may start to believe that expressing their views would be a futile exercise, or they somehow do not want to be negatively viewed by others, or fear of retaliation or employees are not at a stage to destruct the work-related relationship, or they do not want to disturb anyone (Milliken et al., 2003). Conflict is a naturally occurring phenomenon (Rahim, 2010). Human behaviors have certain instincts to disagree with a particular stance, and this continuous disagreement can be managed but may not be completely eliminated (Rahim, 2010). Thus, conflict management strategies play a pivotal role to reduce the organizational dissent (Cox, 2003). According to Kolb and Putnam (1992) conflict is an inevitable factor in human life due to dissimilar associations with culture, norms, and value. Hence, conflict can’t be detached from people’s life. In nutshell, this study investigates the effects of leadership styles on organizational dissent among people engaged in the healthcare sector of Sindh by taking conflict management as a mediating variable that may settle down the negative effects of a particular leadership style on organizational dissent thus turning the situation positively.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Information flow within the organization has always been given great attention in organizational studies; the voice of employees is a sound, a bit unique, and a comparatively new term in behavioral studies. Harshman's (1970) model serves as the basis for the "exit or voice" model study that explores employees’ reactions to problems faced at the workplace. Dissatisfaction with internal or external audiences can be expressed. There was a dearth on research focus in the 1980s: while whistleblowing established considerable scholarly attention, at the same time the issue and expression of “Dissent” within an organization were rarely studied (Sprague & Ruud, 1988; Stewart, 1980). Once the literature on “organizational dissent” began and got mature, the notion about organizational differences became inconsistent. In this regard, Kassing (1997) attempted to summarize the previous research and put forward the differences with necessary clarifications by proposing a theoretical model on organizational dissent.

2.1 LEADERSHIP STYLES The modern literature provides evidence that organizational success is largely recognized with the performance of its employees. However, scholars have struggled to create a certain association

M.Riaza, M.A.Junejo, A.H.Shar

between leadership styles and organizational dissent. The impact and significance of leadership styles in today's organizations are diverse and need to explore the usefulness and effectiveness of several leadership styles. The applications and understanding of each single leadership style may be examined in terms of its level of adaptability among different conditions. Changes in businesses have allowed leaders to review their leadership style for maximum performance and better employee participation (Ashkenas et al., 2002). According to Yukl (2010), the scholars are yet to offer an all-encompassing definition to grasp leadership; they seemed busy in redefining the existing leadership concepts. Hersey and Blanchard (1969) documented the concept of situational leadership, they found that some factors are still missing to validate the practical concept of this theory. Blanchard (2002) developed an updated version of situational leadership theory, termed SLII. Wyld (2010) reported that the roles of followers are taken as a central view of situational leadership.

2.2 DIRECTING/TELLING STYLE Directing leadership style provides explicit directions for the goals and roles of employees, and also tracks the performance of followers to collect immediate response and feedback regarding followersâ€™ job outcome. Moreover, directing leaders have to work day and night with subordinates and making them learn.

2.3 COACHING/SELLING STYLE Coaching leadership style is exhibited when the leader explain why s/he is seeking suggestions. It appreciates the right behavior and directs subordinates to the job. The subordinates need supportive and sympathetic leaders capable to usher the congenial working environment.

2.4 SUPPORTING/PARTICIPATING STYLE Supporting leadership encourages employees and leaders to work and decide together. The leader's roles are to assist, encourage, listen, and facilitate the followers. The followers intend to work on their skills, however yet they need certain motivation from the leader.

2.5 DELEGATING STYLE Delegating leadership style occurs when the leader gives necessary training to employees to work independently with the given resources. So this style empowers the employees. Moreover, leaders would be just responsible for setting goals without intervening in the work of followers.

2.6 CONFLICT MANAGEMENT There are several ways to manage conflicts that can be classified between winners and losers (Jones & White, 1985). The mutual decisions usually make the stakeholders optimistic. The result of a win-lose is achieved when one party exercises its dominant majority, power, and authority over the other. On the other hand, the result of lose-lose occurs when both parties have failed to achieve their goals and each party seeks a compromise or withdrawal. Robbins (1996) suggested that conflict management practices depend on their intentions to dominate compromise, abstain, collaborate, or take advantage of conflict-related opportunities. Black and Mountain (1964) introduced a conflict resolution grid that focused on mutual conflicts. The conflict grid consists of two axes, namely the care of people and the care of production. The parties were estimated to have five different aspects of *Corresponding author (M.Riaza). Email: reazmalik@ymail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.212

conflict management, including (1) competing (or forcing); (2) collaborating (or problem-solving); (3) compromising; (4) accommodating (or smoothing); and (5) avoiding (or withdrawing). Additionally, Black and Mountain (1964) stated that problem-solving or collaborating considered the â€œbest way" to solve conflicts. Therefore, the purpose of dispute resolution was to help organizers work in a win-win approach (collaboration) rather than avoiding positions (win-loss) related to the conflict. Rahim (1985) identified five conflict management strategies, namely avoiding, dominating, compromising, obliging, ad integrating. On the contrary, in the Black and Mountain (1964) conflict theory, Rahim (1985) confirmed that a particular style cannot be considered an ideal style for conflict management, but each style depends on the situation.

2.7 ORGANIZATIONAL DISSENT Organizational dissent is considered as an intrinsic moral value of the expression. According to Sprague and Ruud (1988), dissent contains expressions that can be regarded as a violation of moral responsibility, loyalty conviction, a minor inconvenience, and political rights. Numerous concepts regarding the organizational environment, like whistleblowing, employee voice, organizational conflicts, employee resistance, and upward influence are exactly associated with the concept of organizational dissent. Scholars who essentially investigated the insights of the organizational environment have advocated different definitions of organizational dissent (Hegstrom, 1990; Redding, 1985; Graham, 1986). These scholars comprehensively reported five assumptions: 1) Dissent arises because of an existing level of dissatisfaction, 2) intentionally non-organizational status is maintained which causes dissent, 3) Dissent consists of open protest, 4) Dissent contains a particular clash, and 5) unanimous messages (reflecting dissent) are mostly about issues of principles. Moreover, Kassing (1997) recommended that dissent need to be re-accepted to avoid particular confusion from one place to another. Kassing (1998) considered dissent as conflicting expressions generated by employees on different organizational procedures, policies, and practices. The three main categories of dissent that are classified according to their recipients are described as articulated (upward), latent (lateral), and displaced. Dissenting factors can be directly involved with the supervisor (Articulated dissent), or the colleagues having similar status (latent dissent), or people outside the organization like media, family, and friends (Displaced dissent). Employees are different in their tendency to express disagreement and their unwanted decisions are influenced by various factors like organizational, relations, and individual levels. For example, employees who have internal control tend to be more intolerant, whereas those with external control are more likely to respond as lateral dissent (Kassing & Avtgis, 2001). Similarly, the upward dissent is found to be negatively associated with aggression and positively related to argumentation (Kassing & Avtgis, 1999).

2.8 LEADERSHIP, CONFLICT MANAGEMENT, AND ORGANIZATIONAL DISSENT Healthcare sector is a major service sector, and the issue of organizational dissent can be resolved by adopting some appropriate leadership styles. Dube (2013) studied transformational & transactional leadership (full range leadership theory), using a mixed method of research. The study revealed that transformational leadership style is more dominating than transactional leadership style in public sector organization (South Africa). This study observes a contextual difference and has focused on Hersey & Blanchard leadership model of leadership styles. Novac and Bratanov (2014)

M.Riaza, M.A.Junejo, A.H.Shar

studied HRM, Hersey-Blanchoard leadership model (situational leadership, 1999) and organizational climate (survey based study). Their study concluded a strong relationship between leadership styles & organizational climate in public sector. Jameson (2010) studied some crucial construct of organizational behavior such as trust, leadership, power; organizational silence (displaced dissent). Hamilton (2011) documented employee dissent, loyalty, communication, and organizational culture at Canadian services sector. Using qualitative approach, he concluded that formal policy and training had less influence on dissent than organizational culture, employee experience & perceived career & relationship risks. Payne (2014) reported that trust in supervisors was significantly related to employee’s use of articulated dissent & negatively related to latent & displaced dissent. Turnage and Goodboy (2016) applying the leader member exchange theory (LMX), reported that the quality of superior-subordinate relationship is important in determining how dissent is communicated. Moreover, communicating the dissent in person to supervisor instead of email is sign of better working relationship. Additionally, it is observed in the literature that leadership styles, conflict management and organizational dissent have been studied separately into different parts of the world. Islam and Rimi (2017) documented evidences on conflict management as collaborating, compromising, avoiding, accommodating, and competing. They revealed evidences of conflict management in banking sector through application of Thomas-Kilman’s conflict management model. Furthermore, Ajike et al. (2015) studied Conflict, conflict management, organizational performance and reported that conflict management has significant positive impact on organizational performance. The outcomes suggested that female top management of educational institutions in USA used compromising as most preferred way of conflict management (Monn, 2012). These studies have focused health care sector with conflict management as intervening variable irrespective of gender. Lizasoain et al. (2015) studied conflict management, emotional intelligence, leadership styles & service quality. Study was mainly based on quantitative, descriptive and co-relational. A high correlation was found between conflict management styles, emotional intelligence and leadership styles and their study results recommended to contribute better service quality in higher education. Jameson (2010) studied trust, leadership, power, organizational silence (displaced dissent).

2.9 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The study framework is given in Figure 1.

Facilitating Leadership

Conflict Management

Coaching Leadership Delegating Leadership

Leadership Styles

Organizational Dissent

Directing Leadership

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.212

From discussion, the hypotheses are formulated H1: Leadership Styles negatively & significantly influences the organizational dissent; H2: Leadership Styles positively & significantly influences the conflict management; H3: Conflict Management negatively & significantly influences the organizational dissent; H4: Conflict Management mediates the relationship between leadership style and organizational dissent.

METHOD

To study the causal effects of leadership styles and conflict management on organizational dissent, the cross-sectional survey was executed to gather the data. The target population is drawn from the healthcare sector of Sindh, Pakistan. Total 480 respondents (doctors/professors/consultant, paramedical staff, and ministerial staff) works in various hospitals of Sindh (Govt. owned). Table 1 illustrates the proportionate distribution of population frame and extracted the sample size. For constructs and scales, Table 2 shows sources for predesigned close-ended questionnaire at five-point Likert scale used to collect primary data for this study. Table 1: Population & sample size. Divisional Hospitals Chandka Medical college/hospital Larkana, Sindh Ghulam Muhammad Maher Medical College Sukkur, Sindh DHQ Hospital Hyderabad, Sindh DHQ Hospital Karachi, Sindh DHQ Hospital Mirpurkhas, Sindh DHQ Hospital Nawabshah, Sindh Total

Population Employed 200 212 183 211 162 157 1125

Percentage (%) Sample 18% 87 19% 91 16% 77 19% 91 14% 67 14% 67 100% 480

Table 2: Research instruments and sources Construct Leadership Styles (LS) Conflict Management (CM) Organizational Dissent

Nature of Construct IV MV DV

Items 24 25 20

Citation Hersey & Blanchard (1982) Thomas &Kilmann (1974, 2007) Kassing (2000)

Table 3: Demographic Profile (N = 480). Demographic Variables Teaching Hospital Organization Hospital Medical College Gender Male Female 20-30 Years Age 31 to 40 Years 41-50 Years Above 40 Years Health Tech/Nursing BSc/MBBS/FCPS Qualification MSC/MBA (Health Management) M.Phil/MS PhD Below 10 Years Experience 10 - 20 Years Above 20 Years

M.Riaza, M.A.Junejo, A.H.Shar

Frequency 109 308 63 336 144 116 189 80 95 192 144 48 48 48 240 144 96

Percent 22.7 64.2 13.1 70.0 30.0 24.2 39.4 16.7 19.8 40.0 30.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 50.0 30.0 20.0

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 4.1 RELIABILITY SCORE Table 4 shows the reliability statistics of variables of interest that the Cronbach’s Alpha reliability more than 0.7 confirms reliability of all variables. Table 4: Alpha Scores for All Study Variables Main Construct Leadership Styles

Dimensions Facilitating Leadership Style (FLS) Coaching Leadership Style (CLS) Delegating Leadership Style (DLS) Directing Leadership Style (DrLS) Conflict Management (CM) Organizational Dissent (OD)

Items 6 6 6 6 25 20

Cronbach’s Score .80 .71 .73 .76 .71 .82

Table 5, all mean score reveal that respondents’ fall under the response of agree. Moreover, SD shows the suitable deviation among the mean scores.

Table 5: Surveyed mean & SD result based on five-point Likert scale. Variable FLS CLS DLS DrLS CM OD

Minimum 4 4 4 4 4 4

Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5

Mean 4.34 4.43 4.46 4.34 4.45 4.42

SD .475 .496 .499 .475 .498 .495

4.2 CFA ANALYSIS Table 6 shows the outcomes of CFA. The validities like Composite Reliability (CR) and average variance extracted (AVE) are also given. All item loads were seen as fully significant (p<.001 or ***). Hence, validities for all leadership styles (CR >.70 and AVE >.50) were established. The validities for organizational dissent and conflict management were also established. The goodness of fit (GOF) of the model is observed through fit indices. The fit indices shows Goodness of Fit Index (GFI), Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI), Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI) and Comparative Fit Index (CFI), indicating suitable goodness of fit of the model. However, to achieve the better GOF several items have been removed from leadership styles, organizational dissent and conflict management, only those items were removed whose loading were below .50. Hence, the measurement model has achieved suitable GOF and it would be carried in the further (structural) analysis for hypotheses assessment. Table 6: Validities & Fit Indices Variable FLS CLS DrLS DLS OD CM

Validity CR=.857, AVE=.494 CR=0.869, AVE=0.522 CR=0.841, AVE=0.510 CR=0.875, AVE=0.540 AVE=.907, CR=.967 AVE=.741, CR=.934

Fit Indices GFI=.896 AGFI=.864 TLI=.960 CFI=.967 NFI=.968 RMSEA=.0.07

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.212

4.3 OUTCOMES OF STRUCTURAL MODEL

Figure 2 revealed the outcomes of SEM (2 nd order) statistical analysis for Path-C. The structural part of the model revealed that the path effect Leadership Styles  Organizational Dissent, was (b= -.44, p=0.000 or ***) and confirming the H1 regarding negative significant effect of Leadership Styles on Organizational Dissent. All construct have loading among acceptable ranges and fit indices. Hence, H1 has been retained.

Figure 2: Assessing Leadership styles  Organizational Dissent (2 nd Order). Figure 3 shows the outcomes for Path-A. The results revealed that the path effect from Leadership Styles  Conflict management, (b= 0.20, p=0.002 < 0.05) was confirming the H2 regarding positive & significant effect of Leadership Styles on Conflict Management. Hence, H2 has been retained.

Figure 3: Assessing Leadership Styles  Conflict Management (2nd Order)

M.Riaza, M.A.Junejo, A.H.Shar

Figure 4: Assessing Conflict Management  Organizational Dissent Figure 4 shows the outcomes for Path-B. Both constructs have suitable factor loading. The results revealed that the path effect from Conflict Management  Organizational Dissent, was (b= -.40, p-value = 0.001 < 0.05) confirming the H3 regarding negative and significant effect of conflict management on Organizational Dissent. The fit indices were also established.

Figure 5: Assessing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) 2 nd order Table 7: Hypotheses assessment summary. Hypotheses H1 H2 H3 H4

Coefficients -0.44 0.20 -0.40 -0.10 -0.14

p-value *** *** *** 0.071 0.037

Remarks Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted

Figure 5 shows the outcomes of final model. Leadership styles have been abstracted in 2 nd order and taken as independent variable, organizational dissent considered as outcome variable, and *Corresponding author (M.Riaza). Email: reazmalik@ymail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.212

conflict management were taken as mediating variable. The results shows the path Leadership Styles Conflict Management  Organizational Dissent (b = -0.10, p-value = .071) is accepted at 0.1 level, whereas the direct effect results through Leadership Styles  Organizational Dissent (b= -0.14, p=0.037) confirm H 4 regarding fully mediating the relationship between leadership styles and organizational dissent. Table 7 gives the hypotheses summary.

5. CONCLUSION The study was intended to examine leadership styles (facilitating leadership, coaching leadership, delegating leadership, directing leadership) in health care sector of Sindh. These dimensions were initially introduced by Hersey & Blanchard (1996). The leadership styles and its dimensions were treated in causal relationship with organizational dissent. This study considered organizational dissent as an outcome variable. Conflict management strategies were included to explain the relationship between leadership style and organizational dissent. The study was explanatory in design and quantitative in nature. All the hypotheses were accepted. The Data was analyzed through CB-SEM. It is concluded that leadership styles have significant and negative effect on organizational dissent (Path-C), leadership styles have significant and positive effect on conflict management (Path-A), conflict management has significant and negative effect on organizational dissent (Path-B), and conflict management mediates the relationship between leadership styles and organizational dissent.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Ajike, E. O., Akinlabi, B. H., Magaji, N., &Sonubi, A. O. (2015). Licensed under Creative Common Effect of Conflict Management on the Performance of Financial Service Organization in Nigeria: An Empirical Study of Access Bank Plc. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management United Kingdom, III (7), 260–272 Ashkenas, R., Ulrich, D., Jick, T., & Kerr, S. (2002). The boundary less organization. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass. Bass, B.M. (1985). Leadership: Good, better, best. Organizational dynamics, 13(3): 26 40, doi: 10.1016/0090-2616 (85)90028-2 Bennis, W. (2007). The challenges of leadership in the modern world: introduction to the special issue. American Psychologist, 62(1), 2, DOI: 10.1037/0003-066x.62.1.2 Cannella, A.A., & Rowe, W.G. (1995). Leader capabilities, succession, and competitive context: A study of professional baseball teams. The Leadership Quarterly, 6(1), 69-88, DOI: 10.1016/1048-9843 (95)90005-5 Cox, K. B. (2003). The effects of intrapersonal, intragroup, and intergroup conflict on team performance effectiveness and work satisfaction. Nursing Administration Quarterly, 27(2), 153-163. Dube, C. K. (2013). A Survey of the Leadership Style in the Public Sector : a Case Study of Ethekwini Municipality. Goleman, D., Boyatzis, R., Mckee, A. (2002). The New Leader: Transforming the art of leadership into the science of results.

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Gordon, A., & Yukl, G. (2004). The future of leadership research: Challenges and opportunities. German Journal of Human Resource Management, 18(3): 359 365. Graham, J. W. (1986). Principle organizational dissent: A theoretical essay. In B.M. Staw& L.L. Cummings (Eds.), Research in organizational behavior, 8, 1–52, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. Hamilton, H. L. (2011). Employee dissent in federal government organizations: Lessons for managing reputation and fostering employee loyalty. Corporate Communications. Hegstrom, T. G. (1990). Mimetic and dissent conditions in organizational rhetoric. Journal of Applied Communication Research, 18, 141-152. Hersey P. & Blanchard K. (1996). Training & Development. Alexandria 50, 1, 42. Hersey P. (2009). Situational leaders: Leadership Excellence. 26, 2, 12. Islam, N., Rimi, N. S. (2017). Conflict Management Technique in Private Commercial Banks of Bangladesh : An Application of Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Handling Model, 9(29), 91–99. Jameson, J. (2010). Trust and Leadership in Post-Compulsory Education: some snapshots of displaced dissent. Power and Education, DOI: 10.2304/power.2010.2.1.48 Jones, R. E., & White, C. S. (1985). Relationships among personality, conflict resolutions styles, and task effectiveness. Group and organization studies, 10(2), 152-167. Kassing, J. W. (1997). Articulating, antagonizing, and displacing: A model of employee dissent. Communication Studies, 48, 311-332. Kassing, J. W. (1998). Development and validation of the Organizational Dissent Scale. Management Communication Quarterly, 12, 183-229. Kassing, J. W. (2000a). Exploring the relationship between workplace freedom of speech, organizational identification, and employee dissent. Communication Research Reports, 17, 387-396. Kassing, J. W. (2000b). Investigating the relationship between superior-subordinate relationship quality and employee dissent. Communication Research Reports, 17, 58-70. Kassing, J. W. (2009). “In case you didn’t hear me the first time”: An examination of repetitious upward dissent. Management Communication Quarterly, 22, 416– 436. Kassing, J. W. (2011). Dissent in organizations. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press. Kassing, J. W., & Avtgis, T. A. (2001). Dissension in the organization as a function of control expectancies. Communication Research Reports, 18, 118-127. Kassing, J. W., Piemonte, N. M., Goman, C.C., & Mitchell, C. A. (2013) Dissent expression as an indicator of work engagement and intention to leave, Journal of Business Communication, 49, 237–253. Kolb, D. M., & Putnam, L. L. (1992). The multiple faces of conflict in organizations. Journal of Organizational Behaviour, 13(3), 311-324. Milliken, F. J., Morrison, E. W., &Hewlin, P. (2003). An exploratory study of employee silence: Issues that employees don’t communicate upward and why. Journal of Management Studies, 40, 1453– 1476. Monn, K. P. (2012). Comparisons in conflict management among Suburban Illinois Public School Top Management Team members. Doctoral dissertation, Northern Illinois University. Novac, C., Bratanov, C. I. (2014). The Impact of the Leadership Style on the Organizational Climate in a Public Entity. Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy. *Corresponding author (M.Riaza). Email: reazmalik@ymail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.212

Payne, H. J. (2014). Examining the Relationship between Trust in Supervisor-Employee Relationships and Workplace Dissent Expression. Communication Research Reports, DOI: 10.1080/08824096.2014.907141 Rahim, M. A. (1985). A strategy for managing conflict in complex organizations. Human Relations, 38(1), 81-89. Rahim, M. A. (2010). Managing conflict in organizations. Transaction Publishers. Redding, W. C. (1985). Rocking boats, blowing whistles, and teaching speech communication. Communication Education, 34, 245–258. Robbins, S. P. (1996). Organizational behavior: Concepts, controversies, application (7th Ed.), Prentice Hall. Sprague, J. A., & Ruud, G. L. (1988). Boating-rocking in the high technology culture. American Behavioral Scientist, 32, 169-193. Stewart, L. P. (1980). “Whistle blowing”: Implications for organizational communication. Journal of Communication, 30, 90-101. Turnage, A. K., Goodboy, A. K. (2016). E-mail and face-to-face organizational dissent as a function of leader-member exchange status. International Journal of Business Communication, 53(3), 271-285. Yukl, G. (2010). Leadership in organizations. Boston, MA: Prentice Hall. Yukl, G., Gordon, A., Taber, T. (2002). A hierarchical taxonomy of leadership behavior: Integrating a half century of behavior research. Journal of Leadership, & Organizational Studies, 9(1), 15-32. DOI: 10.1177/107179190200900102 Yukl, G., Mahsud, R. (2010). Why exible and adaptive leadership is essential. Consulting Psychology Journal: Practice and Research, 62(2), 81, DOI: 10.1037/a0019835 Muhammad Riaz is a student of Institute of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Pakistan. He got his Master’s degree in Supply Chain Management from University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Pakistan. He pursues his PhD in Management Sciences with HRM focus.

Professor Dr.Mumtaz Ali Junejo is Professor and Dean, Faculty of Management Sciences, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Pakistan. He got his PhD in SME from Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Pakistan. His research is Total Quality Management and Human Resources Management.

Professor Dr.Amir Hussain Shar is Professor at Institute of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Pakistan. He got his PhD in Banking and Finance from Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Pakistan. His research focuses on Banking and Finance.

M.Riaza, M.A.Junejo, A.H.Shar

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PAPER ID: 11A11I

LEGIBILITY PATTERN AT A CITY CENTRE OF KUALA TERENGGANU, MALAYSIA 1

Ahmad Syamil Sazali , Ahmad Sanusi Hassan , Yasser Arab 1 2

, Boonsap Witchayangkoon

School of Housing, Building & Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA. Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 14 May 2019 Received in revised form 01 April 2020 Accepted 04 May 2020 Available online 19 May 2020

This paper seeks to determine five elements of the urban design that can be analysed in Kuala Terengganu City Centre to form a clear mental map of the urban environment and planning strategies by the government of Terengganu. A comprehensive urban trail conducted focusing on the city centre to study the urbanism elements and planning Keywords: strategies by the government of Kuala Terengganu. Urban planning and Coastal heritage city; community building ideas towards a better city have been taking into Urban Planning; Urban city design; City zoning; considerations by the authority of Kuala Terengganu in presenting the Mental map; Malay town; ideas of Coastal Heritage City. The strategic and pragmatic urban design approaches by the government of Terengganu by indicating the City identify. specific zoning within the city centre itself have indirectly strengthened the city development identity. The outcomes of this study prove that urban design elements play an essential role in creating a specific mental mapping in persona picturesque about Kuala Terengganu City Centre. Disciplinary: Sustainable Architecture and Town Planning, Urban and Regional Science. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Malay towns, as studied by Hamid (1988) and Ezrin (1985) began as traditional Malay settlements with its own fascinating cultural landscape environment. Several old towns such as Kota Bharu, Kuala Terengganu, Kuala Dungun, Pekan, Johor Lama, Bandar Maharani, Kelang, Kuala Selangor and Kota Setar were initially Malay towns because of their physical and non-physical elements. Half of these towns evolved into the states capitals influenced by the colonial British Administration development during the colonial period. However, the Malay towns are currently undergoing tremendous changes due to rapid *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

industrialisation, economic development and urbanisation. The original characteristics of these towns have changed as a result of increasing population, migration, economic wealth and changes in lifestyle brought about by the development of modern housing schemes, business premises and other infrastructures. A myriad of development activities taking place across the country does not leave these towns untouched. Modern structures such as skyscrapers encroached into the town centres and Malay historic sites. As stated in Sejarah Melayu (Malay Annals) as well as in other sources of Malay literature, the Kuala Terengganu town centre was founded by a Malay Sultan in the early 18th century. This is also evident by the discovery of Terengganu coins that bear the name of Sultan Zainal Abidin, dating back to 1708. The town was rich in Malay cultural heritage. It was built as a self-containing Malay town with the palace, mosque and market built within walking distance of each other to serve the daily need of the community. The Kuala Terengganu town centre was replete with characteristics reflecting the culture of the Malays who live or used to live there. In Kuala Terengganu, the palace was the administrative centre, the mosque as a place of worship, the market as a place to conduct commercial activities, and the traditional villages a place where the larger community lived. Today, the Malay cultural landscape in the town centre is facing threats from changes brought about by rapid development. These threats are real and can be seen in its working. Take the case of the old palace. Even though it is maintained, it is now only used for royal ceremonies. Many of the traditional villages in the old quarters had been replaced with commercial buildings and modern houses development, and this process will continue with the other remaining traditional villages. There is a need for authority to monitor and control development that impinges on the pristine existence of these villages.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW This study is to measure the quality of urban design elements to the selected urban area in Kuala Terengganu as the case study. These urban elements were introduced by Kevin Lynch (1960) in his book The Image of the City stated that elements like nodes, paths, districts, edges, and landmarks make a city and help to make a visual image to the people. In this book, Kevin Lynch explains the concept of legibility where people always understand the character of a place with their mental mapping, which contains images in urban design as follow (Lynch, 1960): Paths: Paths are related to the connectivity of the city that connects to all channels, road, streets or walkway within a city; this is where the user customarily, potentially or occasionally moves. The path can be a backbone for a city as it provides urban form network and also serves a unique character to its specific urban design. Therefore, the path can be a predominant element for many people because users can feel and observe the cityscape while moving through the paths. Along these paths, the other urban design elements are related to it (Lin et al. 2019). Edges: Edges are boundaries that separate two districts visually. It is the element that breaks the continuity of the city, making it visible that the city consists of different areas. Despite that, these boundaries are often defined as a unity rather than isolation because even though it breaks the city, it also ties several different elements together, making a seamless transition from one area to another (Batty & Longley, 1994). In other words, it must be visually prominent, yet the observers will still mentally omit the edges. Some elements of edges can be from paths such as rivers, highways, and railway or other things

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

like parks and difference in building height. Districts: Districts are relatively area of various large cities with common characteristics that can be visually and logically determined of those areas. The physical characteristics that determine districts are thematic continuities that may consist of an endless variety of components: texture, space, form, detail, symbol and others (Lynch, 1960). Various components and elements are visually recognised in a specific characteristic cluster that forming a strong contra effect. Furthermore, a particular series of clues are required to produce a sharp image of a whole district. Nodes: Nodes are strategic foci which observers can enter, which are not only small points but also squares, linear shapes and central districts etc. There are two types of nodes, junctions of path and concentrations of characteristics. A successful node should have unique features inside and intensifies some surrounding characters as well. Nodes are the urban spaces or voids as places of attraction by the people or focal points and intersections of the road. They may be only concentrations, which gain their importance from being the condensation of some use or real character, as a street-corner hangout or an enclosed square. Landmarks: Landmarks can be defined as objects in the urban area used as a point of reference. Landmarks are usually something that physical objects that we can see, such as buildings, monuments, signages or mountains. Landmarks also make people recognise the place by viewing it as the landmark, so it is set in their mind that the landmark is the icon to a specified place. Landmarks are not necessarily to be the tallest or biggest buildings, but landmarks can be any buildings or monuments that can relate to the specific area so by looking at the landmark, people can recognise and remember the specific area (Pauzi et

al. 2018).

3. CASE STUDY: CITY CENTRE OF KUALA TERENGGANU The case study is located at Kuala Terengganu City Centre of Terengganu. It encompasses the administration, economic zones, public amenities, religious and settlements area in front of Terengganu River. This city is also well-known as a Coastal Heritage City (Bandaraya Warisan Pesisir Air) due to its location of the city just beside the South China Sea (Figure 1) and the priceless value of the traditional heritage of Terengganu to bring it until now.

Figure 1: Geolocation of Kuala Terengganu City (Courtesy of Google Map)

Based on the Terengganu map, Kuala Terengganu City Centre, the centre of Terengganu, has many landmarks and nodes defined as an identity of Kuala Terengganu. The site area is a strategic area for the *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

local people and tourist because of the landmarks of Kuala Terengganu cum with the traditional architecture of Terengganu on the surrounding buildings which are it was the priceless element that we cannot see at other states. Terengganu is very well-liked with its traditional element of architecture built using colonial and modern material construction such as ‘Bumbung Pemeleh’, ‘Dinding Janda Berhias’ and ‘Kayu Tunjuk Langit’ and also with the original traditional cultural of Terengganu practised from colonial architecture and urban layout that they practice a long time ago until now.

Figure 2: Site Plan - Kuala Terengganu City Centre

4. METHODOLOGY The methodology applies a qualitative site survey and analysis referring to Kevin Lynch (1960) is an observation survey on the quality of the five urban elements including paths, edges, districts, nodes and landmarks that are essentials on analysing the urban layout in Kuala Terengganu City Centre for this research. A fieldwork study by a site visit to Kuala Terengganu City Centre and a study from the layout plan in Figure 2. Meanwhile, in-depth interviews selected the residents and tourists, both local people and international visitor were also conducted. The study used three strategies to understand and analyses the essential urban design elements within Kuala Terengganu City Centre: First, pre-assumption of the importance of essential urban design elements that can be found within Kuala Terengganu. Second, urban trail and observation of the importance and interaction of people to the urban design elements around Kuala Terengganu within the membrane of study’s zone and third, manual extraction and analyses based on mental mapping of the urban design elements and its importance to the social, economic and cultural factors in hierarchical order.

5. ANALYSIS 5.1 PATH Based on Lynch (1960), the path is considered as the most crucial element in urban design, and it is the first element designed in any plan. Figure 3, the hierarchy of road layout in Kuala Terengganu City Centre exists in this area are Arterial Road (Primary Road), Collector Road (Secondary Road)

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

and Local Road (Tertiary Road) that connects many sides of Kuala Terengganu into the site which is it is a tourists attraction area.

Figure 3: Hierarchy of road layout. The site can be accessed by a few roads and channels, by land routes or water routes. The dominant entrance (arterials road - blue) to the site is by Jalan Sultan Zainal Abidin, Jalan Sultan Sulaiman and Jalan Kampung Cina. Furthermore, Jalan Daik becomes the secondary entrance (collectors road - yellow) routes to the site. These roads being the main entrances due to their connections with the other arterial roads. Other than that, the site also can be accessed by water routes go through Terengganu River from Seberang Takir Jetty and boats from Redang Island or Perhentian Island will come to the Ferry Terminal just inside the site of this case study (Figures 4 and 5).

Figure 4: Ferry Terminal

Figure 5: Terengganu River

The paths to the site are quite clear and straight forward as the Kuala Terengganu city centre was designed based on grid concept. (1) Jalan Sultan Zainal Abidin, (2) Jalan Petani and (3) Jalan Datoâ€™ Isaacs became the primary paths and numbered according to hierarchical order. These roads are congested during peak hours and school holidays as the users leaving or entering the site because of the location of Ferry Terminal to the Redang and Perhentian Island, Pasar Payang, Taman Syahbandar and the Post Office located beside the Istana Maziah. The existence of other arterial *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

roads such as Jalan Masjid Abidin, Jalan Tok Lam and Jalan Petani eased the traffic flow on the main roads (Figures 4). The formal pedestrian walkway, on the other hand, is located along all roads to ease the user, especially to the tourist because the site is one of the tourist attraction in Kuala Terengganu. The Terengganu River (Figure 5) is not only as the transportation routes to enter and leave the site but also as a separation between Kuala Terengganu city centre and Seberang Takir. This natural topography becomes one of the dominant edges for the city centre. The importance of the river is to divide the territory and functions of both cities, and, to reconnect them. It generates a different way of living, economic approaches and architectural values between these two cities. Even, there is new construction of the bridge to connect Kuala Terengganu and Seberang Takir, which is the first draw bridge (Figure 7) constructed in Malaysia. The bridge is constructed there because of the route for the ferry, ship and boat along the Terengganu River.

Figure 6: Jalan Sultan Zainal Abidin The arterial road along Taman Shahbandar until to the Pasar Payang

Figure 7: The first drawbridge in Malaysia connecting Kuala Terengganu City Centre to Kuala Nerus (in construction)

5.2 EDGES Lynch (1960) defined edges as the linear elements that act as boundaries between two kinds of areas and serve as lateral references. Terengganu River, located along with Kuala Terengganu City Centre, can be considered as the edge by the people who live or visit at Kuala Terengganu City Centre. Edges is an essential elements of urban design. Edges are boundaries that can determine the limit of the area, for example, in this case, is the Terengganu River as a shoreline.

Figure 8: Terengganu River The edges of Terengganu River have differentiated between the land area of Kuala Terengganu City Centre and the land area of the other side called Seberang Takir. The river separates land and water area, as indicated in Figures 5 and 8. This makes more accessible for people to recognise the edges since the difference between two elements are very obvious (Lynch, 1960) due to its physical barrier creating lines along which separate or join two regions.

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

It does not only act as a separation between districts but also as the connection route among those districts. Terengganu river is connecting a few districts in Terengganu such as between Kuala Terengganu District, Setiu District and Hulu Terengganu District and also the river will connect to Tasik Kenyir. The existence of Terengganu River divides the city functions between Kuala Terengganu, Setiu and Hulu Terengganu and eases the administration for those cities. Unfortunately, the importance of the Terengganu River as a transportation route seems to be forgotten due to the introduction of land transportation that more convenient to the users. The appreciation among the locals and tourists towards Terengganu River as a vital edge for the city centre seems to be diminished because fewer activities happen along the river as contrary during the past days. This is very contrary to ecological consideration in urban planning (Rameli and Wong, 2015) although water body is very prominent components of Kuala Terengganu.

5.3 DISTRICT AND ZONING The division of the district at Kuala Terengganu city centre is generally based on the historical and geographical factors as well as planning consideration in the future as a Coastal Heritage City. These zones are vital for future references and guideline in preserving cultural and social aspects. Figure 9, Kuala Terengganu city centre was divided into six zones, identified through the function and activity. Zone 1 is for reclamation area, zone 2 for tourism, zone 3 for commercial area, zone 4 for the royal area, zone 5 for the old residential and commercial area and zone 6 for the religious area. Functions and activities were identified based on the locations of the buildings and the planning consideration from the government of Kuala Terengganu.

Figure 9: Zoning of Kuala Terengganu following historical aspect and future planning approaches. The reclamation land in Zone 1 is in construction to enlarge the tourism area that is one of the future planning approaches to get more tourists in Kuala Terengganu since the area is tourist attractions. The government plans to build more recreational area, a parking area (Figures 10) and upgrading the environment there because the tourist population in Kuala Terengganu increases every year. These approaches are useful in terms of tourism activity and economy in Kuala Terengganu. *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

Figure 10: The reclamation land turns into a car park and recreational area for tourist purpose For Zone 2, it is called tourism zone because of the location of attractive places such as Taman Syahbandar, Jetty Terminal, Bazaar Warisan, Bukit Puteri and Pasar Payang are inlined, and it is walking distance between each other. This zone is significant as there are so many dominant landmarks, and it is similar to an introduction of Kuala Terengganu to the tourist. They got the most tourist visitors around this area every year because of the Pasar Payang, which is the famous market in Kuala Terengganu, and this reflects the historical traits and values of Kuala Terengganu. Next, Zone 3 is for the commercial area that there have Astaka Hypermarket, which is the famous hypermarket back in the 1990s until now. Zone 4 is for the royal area which is there have Istana Maziah is one of the official palaces of the Sultan of Terengganu. Zone 4 is divided into a private area and semi-private area. Istana Maziah itself is in the category of private area and for the semi-private area in the park in front of the Istana Maziah. The purpose of the park is to ties several different elements together, making a seamless transition from one area to another (Batty & Longley, 1994). Tourists or the public can use the park anytime without any hesitate of disturbing the privacy of the palace.

Figure 11: The only traditional house with Terengganu architecture element in the middle of Kuala Terengganu city centre

Figure 12: Commercial shophouses

Zone 5 is for the traditional residential (Figure 11)and commercial area (Figure 12) because of the history of the site a long time ago. They insist on staying there because of their family members and the sentimental value of their place since a long time ago. This result is based on the interview session with the villagers. Figure 11, the government wants to develop that area, and there is the only house that standstill there with the construction occur around their house. Finally, Zone 6 is for a religious area that encompasses Masjid Abidin (Figure 13) and

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

neighbouring compounds such as Islamic Museum, the Terengganu Royal Mausoleum that is the members of the royal family who have been buried beside Masjid Abidin and an array of shops that offer a variety of Islamic attires, religious books and non-alcoholic perfumes. The mosque is also known as the White Mosque or the Big Mosque. The original building material of the Masjid Abidin was wood, but during the reign of Sultan Umar at around 1852, the mosque was replaced with one made out of bricks. In 1881, Sultan Ahmad II ibni Yang Dipertua Muda Tengku Mahmud constructed a new dome to replace the old one erected under Sultan Zainal Abidin II.

Figure 13: Masjid Abidin (White Mosque or the Big Mosque).

The district element in Kuala Terengganu city centre was divided into 6 different zones and each zone are differentiated with the arterials road along the site study area.

5.4 NODES Nodes are the core element in urban design as they become the focus of the area (Lynch, 1960) and can be accessed from all directions. Based on his statement, nodes can be defined as a focal point of strategic nature that a person can penetrate. From the site observation, there is only one distinctive node (Figure 14) that become the essential elements in the whole Kuala Terengganu city centre which is Taman Shahbandar, or the other names are Dataran Shahbandar (Figure 15). Its scale and activities can distinguish Taman Shahbandar as a district garden or park and. The garden or park is mainly designed for the usage of recreational place for the public. Taman Shahbandar, which can be accessed by foot, bicycle and car, serves the purpose of creating a node for the public to gather and interact with each other. This idea can be seen as imperative for the user that is dedicated for all purposes. Meanwhile, the scale and size of Taman Shahbandar also can cater any significant events such as a cultural event, entertainment event, a big scale of night market or Bazaar Ramadhan and any concert that can hold at Taman Shahbandar. Mostly, any significant events in Kuala Terengganu are held in Taman Shahbandar because of the important place, and the location of Taman Shahbandar itself is facing to the river that people can feel the calmness of Terengganu River.

*Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

Figure 14: Nodes â€“ Taman Shahbandar

Taman Shahbandar is a suitable place for the tourists to visit because of the design and the layout planning is very lovely, and there is a seafood restaurant (Figure 16) with the fantastic view towards to the Terengganu River. Tourists who want to go to Perhentian Island or Redang Island, they will see the beauty of Taman Shahbandar because the Jetty Terminal just beside the Taman Shahbandar. Lydon, Garcia and Duany (2015) researched the tactical urbanism where they concluded that by re-imagining parks to create a vibrant plaza as neighbourhood gathering place could be a way to shape urban spaces in new development to inspire the residents.

Figure 15: Taman Shahbandar

Figure 16: Seafood Restaurant

5.5 LANDMARKS Landmarks, which are physical elements, are the external references to the individuals (Lynch, 1960). There are a few reasons that make a landmark memorable, which are its significance, uniqueness, contrast to the background and its distinctive location. Kuala Terengganu City Centre has many distinctive landmarks (Figure 17) that can be recognised as its visual identity with its activity, design and architectural element. There is a lot of unique, traditional and local architectural styles rest around the site that falls under the category of landmarks. Some of them are known due to the historical significance and local identity representation. The landmarks that can be found around the site are Taman Syahbandar, Istana Maziah, Bukit Puteri,

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

Bazaar Warisan, Pasar Payang and Masjid Abidin. All these places have their own sentimental and historical value.

Figure 17: Landmarks in Kuala Terengganu City Centre

6. DISCUSSION Although Kuala Terengganu City Centre is developed from colonial style of planning, the ideas and concept that being implemented by the authority reflects the local culture, way of living and architectural symbolism. The high integration of the urban design elements with the non-visual elements that are related to social interpretations, connectivity and appreciations at Kuala Terengganu City Centre reflects the considerations of brilliant urban quality of life. The evolution and transformation of the city image since the declaration of Kuala Terengganu as a Coastal Heritage City *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

have shown some positive progress and at the same time picturesque a clear identity and character rooted from local culture and heritage. However, there are less ecological considerations in responding with the garden city concept and to meeting the challenges in the future. The natural environment that exists at the site should be fully utilised as a large tract of greenery in responding with the garden city concept because landscaping and water bodies are prominent here at Kuala Terengganu City Centre. Moreover, the uses of the technology in accordance of millennium era is not fully utilised to meet the local government visions to create a model of Coastal Heritage City that reflects the cultural and natural heritage of Terengganu. Hence, Kuala Terengganu City Centre seemed to be distanced with the development as compared to the other city. However, many alternatives have been derived from creating a competitive city, great urbanism and meaningful city image to the people.

7. CONCLUSION After the site observation, the urban design elements of Kuala Terengganu City Centre were identified based on the various scale of measurements that has been discussed in research methodology. As Kuala Terengganu City Centre can be considered a heritage township, the planning is not as hectic, the place and architecture are full with the history of Kuala Terengganu and the relationship with the neighbouring contexts are also carefully laid out. The roads are designed with proper hierarchy. Some path already changed from two ways into one lane, for example, Jalan Sultan Zainal Abidin along the Dataran Shahbandar until Pasar Payang. Some lanes also make some amendment from two ways into one way. Jalan Sultan Zainal Abidin well-identified lead towards the upper site of Kuala Terengganu. There few landmarks along the path. The most significant edge for Kuala Terengganu City Centre is Terengganu River itself. The Terengganu River connects a few districts in Terengganu such as between Kuala Terengganu District, Setiu District and Hulu Terengganu District and also the river will connect to Tasik Kenyir. The existence of Terengganu River divides the city function between Kuala Terengganu, Setiu and Hulu Terengganu and ease the administration for those cities. Unfortunately, the importance of the Terengganu River as a transportation route seems to be forgotten due to the introduction of land transportation that more convenient to the users. The appreciation among the locals and tourists towards Terengganu River as a vital edge for the city centre seems to be diminished because fewer activities are happening along the river as contrary during the past days. This is very contrary to ecological consideration in urban planning as stated by (Rameli and Wong, 2015) although water body is very prominent components of Kuala Terengganu. The Kuala Terengganu City Centre is zoned based on their function and urban images into six zones at which are reclamation land zone, tourism zone, royal zone, residential and commercial zone and religious zone. The existing function of each area determines the division of the districts/zones. The other zonings have then been defined due to its specific functions and individual architectural styles that then create a unique mental image for the city itself. The establishment of sub-zoning within Kuala Terengganu City Centre is derived from â€˜divide and ruleâ€™ concept where the zoningsâ€™ functions and image are different from each other. To form a city, those small zonings in Kuala Terengganu City Centre have then been connected by the identical structures such as archway or unique architectural elements and also access that create a large section for the city (Hassan, 2009).

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

Most dominant nodes within the site are influenced by the existence of cultural, socio-economical influences, the history behind it and amalgamation of structures and most importantly, due to its functions. This cohesion of a few factors creates a centre of attraction within Kuala Terengganu City Centre. Due to Kuala, Terengganu is diverse in cultural aspects such as thousands of delicious traditional delicacies, traditional architectural and locals products, and it becomes the prime factor for the locals to start the business on the nodes. The significant nodes that are also recorded assemblance the specific functions that are vital and also special for the people. Hence, most of the main nodes recorded are standing because of that catalyst. Other than that, there are some other nodes become strategic foci due to its necessary historical background and as an essential identity to picturesque the overall concept of the city as a Coastal Heritage City. The landmarks as perceived at Kuala Terengganu City Centre are affected by the cultural and architectural inheritance as well as the overall urban development concept by the governing party. These landmarks are usually well-known due to its functions and local architectural styles. The unique characteristics create a permanent mental image of the city and then overlap with individual interpretations about the city itself. The mental images created by the resemblance of the concepts and urban design elements, which portraying throughout the city. In parallel with the city planning concepts and idea, the Terengganu traditional architectural styles are merged with the Malay vernacular architecture and created urban signage for the city. Few dominant landmarks function as the urban signage and symbolical identities for Kuala Terengganu.

8. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

9. REFERENCES Abdullah, N.H. (2014). Resident’s needs and organisers goals towards the Organization of Monsoon Cup Event, Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Management. Barnett, J. (1986): The Elusive City: Five Centuries of Design, Ambition and Miscalculation. Corbusier, L. (1971), The City of Tomorrow and its Planning, 3rd Ed. (trans: by Etchells, F.). Hall, P. (2014). Cities of Tomorrow: An Intellectual History of Urban Planning and Design Since 1880. 4th Ed. West Sussex: Blackwell Publishing. Handy, S. (1996). Methodologies for Exploring the Link Between Urban Form and Travel Behavior. Transportation Research: Transport and Environment: D 2(2): 151-65 Harvey, D. (1989). From Managerialism to Entrepreneurialism; The Transformation of Urban Governance in Late Capitalism, Georgrafiska Annaler 71B:3-17 Hassan, A.S. (2001). Perancangan Rekabentuk Bandar Bukan Geometri. Journal of Housing, Building and Planning, 13, 89-104, Penang: USM Press Hassan, A.S. (2009). The British Colonial ‘Divide and Rule’ Concept in Inner City of George Town. Penang: Its Influence to Irregular Layout of the Transport Access. International Journal of Transportation, 36(3), 309-324. Lin, L. H., Nordin, J., Hassan, A. S., & Arab, Y. (2019). Elements of Paths, Edges, Nodes, Districts *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab). Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.213

And Landmarks in Fishing Village Waterfront, George Town, Penang. International Transaction Journal of Engineering Management & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(18), 10A18E Lynch, Kevin (1960). The City Image and Its Elements, The Image of the City, Cambridge: MIT Press Pauzi, M. H. M., Hassan, A. S., Arab, Y., & Samad, M. H. A. (2018). A Study on Mental Mapping: Case of Government Buildings, George Town, Penang. International Transaction Journal of Engineering Management & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 9(3), 211-219. Snedcof, H.R. (1985), Cultural Facilities in Mixed Use Development, Urban Land Institute. London: The Architectural Press. Ahmad Syamil Sazali obtained his Master of Architecture from the School of Housing, Building, and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM).

Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan is a Professor in Architecture Programme at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia. He obtained a Bachelor and Master of Architecture degrees from University of Houston, Texas, USA, and Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree focusing on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design Development for Southeast Asia from University of Nottingham, United Kingdom. Dr.Yasser Arab is a senior lecturer at Universiti Sains Malaysia. He obtained his Bachelor of Architecture from Ittihad Private University, Aleppo, Syria. He obtained a PhD in Sustainable Architecture from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. His research focused on the Environment Performance of Residential High-Rise Buildings’ Façade in Malaysia.

Dr.Boonsap Witchayangkoon is an Associate Professor of Department of Civil Engineering at Thammasat University. He received his B.Eng. from the King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi with Honors. He continued his PhD study at University of Maine, USA, where he obtained his PhD in Spatial Information Science & Engineering. His current interests involve Applications of Emerging Technologies to Engineering.

A.S.Sazali, A.S.Hassan, Y.Arab, B.Witchayangkoon

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PAPER ID: 11A11J

FEAR OF CYBER COMMUNICATION THREAT EFFECTS ON ONLINE FREEDOM OF EXPRESSIONS Asghar Ullah Khan 1* , Robina Roshan 1 1

Department of Communication & Media Studies, Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 29 November 2019 Received in revised form 26 March 2020 Accepted 29 April 2020 Available online 19 May 2020

This research article provides insight into the issue of the effect of cyber communication threats on online freedom of expression. Victims of cyber communication threats may avoid expressing themselves on cyber communication technology. This study quests for the rate of cyber communication threats faced by students having a relationship with how freely they express their views about political and social issues in online spaces. The study interviewed 800 students from six leading universities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan over a closedended questionnaire. Hypotheses were tested through statistical procedures. Results revealed that the hypothesis is partially accepted. Results also suggested that that cyber harassment and online identity theft harm online freedom of expression about political and social views while receiving unwanted material, hacking, and viruses showed positive correlation and having a positive effect on online freedom of expression about political and social views.

Keywords: Online freedom of expression (FoE); Online FoE political views; Online FoE social views; Cyberthreat; cyber harassment; online identity theft; Receiving unwanted material; Online hacking and viruses; Online freedom of university students.

1. INTRODUCTION Freedom of speech and expression means the right to express our own opinions freely using words from mouth, writing, typing, printing, pictures, or any other mode. In the modern era, it is accepted worldwide that the right to freedom of speech is the essence of a free and democratic society and it must be protected all the time. The first principle of a free society has not hampered the flow of words in a blog, social media, paper, or in an open forum. Freedom to express opinions and ideas without halt, and especially without fear of getting punished plays a significant role in the development of a free and open society. It is one of the most important fundamental liberties guaranteed against state suppression or regulation. Freedom of expression (FoE) is guaranteed not only by constitution or statutes of various states but also by various international conventions like the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), the European Convention on Human Rights *Corresponding author (A.Ullah Khan). Email: asgharullahadvocate@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11J http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.214

(ECHR) and fundamental freedoms, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). These declarations openly talk about the protection of freedom of speech and expression (Sharma & Alam, 2016). While in Pakistan, the meaning of Freedom of Speech is different. In Pakistan, the meaning of freedom of speech and expression is different. Article 19 of the constitution of Pakistan 1973 describes it as “Every citizen shall have the right to freedom of speech and expression” and there shall be freedom of the press subject to any reasonable restrictions imposed by law in the interest of the glory of Islam or the integrity, security or defense of Pakistan or any part thereof, friendly relations with foreign States, public order, decency or morality, or about contempt of court, a commission of or incitement to an offense (Mahmood, & Shaukat, 2006). Article 19-A of the constitution of Pakistan 1973 describes it as “Every citizen shall have the right to have access to information in all matters of public importance subject to regulation and reasonable restrictions imposed by law” (Ali at al., 2015). Freedom of expression (FoE), as well as press freedom and freedom of information, are indispensable to the attainment of all human rights. UDHR Article 19 describes it as “Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes the freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas over any media and regardless of frontiers” (Assembly, .(1948FoE is broadly understood as the notion that every person has a natural right to freely express himself/herself through any media and across any frontier without outside interference, such as censorship, and without fear of reprisal, such as threats and persecution. Rule of law, freedom of information, free, independent and pluralistic media and active civil society are the conditions needed for FoE to flourish. The advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web led the advocates of FoE to believe that with the new technology, the people could truly experience a full range of FoE, from simple speech to artistic expression to political and religious debates. Cyber communication technology is much important for self-expression. Young people use modern communication technology to experiment as well as find legitimacy for their political, social, ethnic, cultural or sexual identity (Collin et al., 2011, Zanuddin and Shin, 2020). It constitutes new spaces for social engagement and political participation including information sharing and bringing together new networks for action utilizing email, user-generated content and other networking practices (Collin et al., 2011; Montgomery, 2009; Vromen, 2008). Political candidates are increasingly utilizing social networking sites (SNS) and social media, as are advocacy and issue orientated groups (Collin et al., 2011). Cyber communication technology is being used for discussion, organization and mobilization as part of emerging political discourse in young people’s everyday life (Collin et al., 2011; Kann et al., 2007). The effect of cyber communication threats (CCTs) victimization on online freedom of the expression is affecting a significant portion of the online population (Henson, 2013). To know the relationship between cyber communication threats faced by students and their online freedom of expression, therefore, this is the main objective of the study which is aimed to investigate to emerge certain new findings. Thus the research hypothesis is It is more likely that higher level of cyber communication threats (CCTs) faced by students will have a significant relationship with the online freedom of expression (FoE) regarding political and social issues.

Asghar Ullah Khan and Robina Roshan

2. LITERATURE REVIEW The Internet is an integral part of the daily life of many individuals and has become a central and key medium for an increasing number of individuals to exercise their right to freedom of expression (Cannataci et al., 2016). However, some individual uses the Internet for the negative purposes that are creating fright in the online societies which cause impediment for freedom of expression. Pereira and Matos (2016) found that most of the victims (57.6 %) were not care to express online views following their online victimization. Of the victims who reported fear of revictimization while expressing online views or share personal information (43.4 %), 34.3 % were moderately, and 8.1 % were very careful while using SNS after the cyber victimization. Further found that most of the cyber victim till date not used SNS due to fear of re-victimization (33.5 %), followed by ‘randomly used SNS (21.6 %) (Pereira & Matos, 2016). Penney (2017) stated that online threat victimization may cause to shun online self-expression and sharing of opinions (Penney, 2017). Even various internet users adopt self-censorship while expressing their views and feelings, especially on sensitive issues because of fear, anxiety, and pressure of online victimization (Aceto & Pescapé, 2015). In addition to self-censorship, victims hesitate to share their personal information on social media websites, forums, and other user-generated content and limit both their followers and anonymous users to reach their profiles and sharing due to the threat of the re-victimization (Yılmaz et al., 2017). Cyber communication threats (CCTs) victimization often results in quieting of the victim and leave online groups (Marganski & Melander, 2018). Some users avoid using online communication when they are unable to cope with offenders (Spangler, 2017). According to Lenhart et al., (2016) online harassment and abuse can cause victims to experience increased isolation or disconnection from their online communities, whether because of the strain the harassment has put on their close relationships, or because their harassment has made them feel more cut off from avenues for communication and information-seeking. Lenhart et al. (2016) found that 40% of victims say they experienced at least one of these types of isolation or disconnectedness due to the online harassment they experienced, 20% had to shut down an online account/profile since of online harassment/abuse and 13% of victims felt less connected to information and 13% felt less connected to friends or family because their cell phone or internet use was limited because of harassment or abuse (Lenhart et al., 2016). Similarly, Wolak et al. (2010) stated that victim of CCTs often avoids online communication with a stranger, reduce commenting on any issue and posting on their profile, sharing of pictures and personal information, and maintaining Web pages at SNS (Wolak et al., 2010). Pew Research Centre survey found that around one-quarter of Americans (27%) say they have decided not to post something online after witnessing the harassment of others, while more than one-in-ten (13%) say they have stopped using an online service after witnessing other users engage in the harassing behaviors, 45% say it is more important to let people speak their minds freely online; a slightly larger share (53%) feels that it is more important for people to feel welcome and safe online (Duggan et al., 2017). The Britain court declared that CCTs victimization directly affects freedom of expression (Shariff & Hoff, 2007). The emerging research on cyber communications indicates that cyber victimization and threats infringe on their constitutional rights i.e. FoE and creates a *Corresponding author (A.Ullah Khan). Email: asgharullahadvocate@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11J http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.214

hostile and negative environment for online users (Shariff & Hoff, 2007). Higgins et al. (2008) suggested that CCTs victimization was significantly related to avoiding online communication. Past research suggests that individuals take a threat of online victimization seriously. For example, many social network users often avoid to comment or post personal information that could be used to harass or commit identity theft (Henson et al., 2013). Wilcox et al. (2007) study indicated that 81.5% of student respondents after victimization avoided online activity at least sometimes. Generally, researchers have found that an individual’s level of online selfexpression is often influenced by his or her previous experience with CCTs. However, Reisig et al. (2009) finding revealed that; nearly 60% of respondents indicated that it was somewhat or very likely, suggesting that their fear of victimization is fairly high. Fear of victimization also significantly and negatively affected individuals’ online behaviors, reducing their likelihood of making online purchases, spending time online or online self-expression (Henson et al., 2013). Russo and Roccato (2010) reported that individuals who had experienced either direct or indirect victimization (someone within respondent’s social network) were significantly more likely to fear for their safety and reduce online activities such as online communication and selfexpression. In one of the few empirical studies focused on the fear of online threats, Higgins et al. (2008) reported several findings relevant to the current study. They found that self-control was significantly related to fear of online victimization, with individuals who had higher levels of selfcontrol also reporting higher levels of fear. While many internet users who have not encountered pestering still say they have self-censored to avoid potential harassment, people who have seen or experienced harassment online are much more likely to self-censor for this reason than those who have not. The focus of this research paper is on individual victims of CCT. Online freedom of expression means how freely individuals expressing their thoughts and ideas on different online platforms. The study focuses on how freely and actively university students express and share online their opinions about social and political issues. Therefore, in this study investigated how fear of CCTs can affect online FoE.

3. RESEARCH DESIGN This study uses a cross-sectional survey research design to collect fresh and up to date data. Studies of individual behavior rely most heavily on the use of survey questionnaires as the primary method of data collection from the Universities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) ranked by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan (UniRank, 2017), in which students are unit of analysis. As a popular research tool in mass communication research (Yang & Wyckoff, 2010), survey methodology gathers primary, explorative and important descriptive data from the target population. The data gathered from this approach is quantitative and the themes were derived from a review of the relevant literature. Subsequently, the survey questions are formulated based on the themes arising from the empirical literature on the field, and theoretical framework.

3.1 POPULATION AND SAMPLE The total 51887 with 38991 male students and 12896 female students from top-ranking six public sector universities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province are population for this study, including Khyber Medical University Peshawar, University of Peshawar, The University of Agriculture

Asghar Ullah Khan and Robina Roshan

Peshawar, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, University of Engineering & Technology Peshawar and Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan. Different scholars have provided different criteria for deciding the sample size. According to Gay’s (2013) criteria, for the population of more than five thousand (>5000), the sample size of four hundred is sufficient. This study takes 800 sample size. The sample from each university is according to its proportion in the entire population, as well as proportion based on their gender.

3.2 DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENT & ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE A well-structured close-ended questionnaire measuring the concepts of the study was distributed personally and the respondent was requested to fill the questionnaire at the distribution spots, during October-November 2019. The questionnaire used a four-level Likert Scale. SPSS software is used for analyzing quantitative data using both descriptive & inferential statistics to find out the answer to the research question.

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The research hypothesis of this study states that it is more likely that a higher level of cyber communication’s threats faced by students will have a significant relationship with the online freedom of expression regarding political and social issues. To test this hypothesis, the Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to find the relationship between cyber communication threats faced and online freedom of expression regarding political and social issues. The alpha level is 0.05. Tables 1 and 2 present the results. Table 1: Basic statistics. Variables Cyber harassment Online identity theft Receiving unwanted material Hacking Viruses Freedom of political views Freedom of social views

Mean 1.99 1.90 2.30 1.84 2.30 2.10 2.57

SD .64 .71 .86 .86 .91 .96 .99

Table 2: Relationship among level of cyber communication threats. Cyber Online Harassment Identity theft

Variables Cyber Harassment Online Identity theft Receiving unwanted material Hacking Viruses

Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) Correlation

Online freedom of expressing political Sig. (2-tailed) views Correlation Online freedom of expressing social views Sig. (2-tailed)

Unwanted Hacking Viruses material

Online freedom of expressing political views

Online freedom of expressing social views

1 .623** <0.01 .819** <0.01 .525** <0.01 .683** <0.01 -.174**

1 .498** <0.01 .806** <0.01 .421** <0.01 -.314**

.419** <0.01 .667** <0.01 .105**

.390** 1 <0.01 .164** .167**

<0.01

0.003

<0.01

-.366** <0.01

-.159** <0.01

.355** <0.01

0.043 .341** 0.226 <0.01

1 1

<0.01 .497** <0.01

N= 800; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001. *Corresponding author (A.Ullah Khan). Email: asgharullahadvocate@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11J http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.214

Table 2, Pearson correlation coefficients were determined to compare the mean score for online freedom of expression (FoE) about political and social views with various categories of CCT victimization like; cyber harassment, online identity theft, receiving unwanted material, hacking and viruses. There was a negative correlation between FoE about political and social views and cyber harassment and online identity theft while showed a statistically positive correlation with receiving unwanted material, hacking and viruses. Online FoE about political views and respondent’s cyber harassment has significant relationship [r= -.17, p<.05], a higher level of cyber harassment is being associated with lower levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about political views and respondent’s online identity has significant relationship [r= -.31, p<.05], a higher level of online identity theft is being associated with lower levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about political views and respondent’s receiving unwanted material has significant relationship [r= .11, p<.05], a higher level of receiving unwanted material is being associated with higher levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about political views and respondent’s hacking has a significant relationship [r= .16, p<.05], a higher level of hacking is being associated with higher levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about political views and respondent’s viruses victimization has significant relationship [r= .17, p<.05], a higher level of viruses is being associated with higher levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s cyber harassment has significant relationship [r= -.37, p<.05], a higher level of cyber harassment is being associated with lower levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s online identity victimization has significant relationship [r= -.16, p<.05], higher level of online identity theft is being associated with lower levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s receiving unwanted material victimization has significant relationship [r= .36, p<.05], a higher level of receiving unwanted material is being associated with higher levels of FoE about political issues. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s hacking victimization has an insignificant relationship [r= .04, p<.05]. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s viruses victimization has significant relationship [r= .34, p<.05], a higher level of viruses is being associated with higher levels of FoE about political issues. Based on the results, the hypothesis is accepted and thus substantiated. Results suggested that cyber harassment and online identity theft harm online freedom of expression about political and social views while receiving unwanted material, hacking, and viruses showed positive correlation and having a positive effect on online freedom of expression about political and social views.

5. DISCUSSION It would be futile to attempt to develop prevention programs that encouraged youth to reduce their use of the Internet. The use of the Internet is often necessary for educational, information, entertainment purposes, and many youths use the Internet to socialize and connect with others. Rather than encouraging youth to stop socializing on the Internet, it would be more effective to educate youth on the dangers present online so they are aware of the potential for victimization. Adolescents using the Internet should be educated to only participate in cyber communication with people they know each other and trust. If adolescents limit their online communication to people

Asghar Ullah Khan and Robina Roshan

they know, the risk of victimization should be lower. Awareness-raising seminars should be held regularly to inform internet users about what is available for them to handle CCTs and how they can access it. Educational Institutions should introduce separate offices to prevent CCTs victimization of users. Pakistan does have cyber protection laws, but it is needed that people should be informed about those laws as well as the mechanism through which they can seek relief. Also, it is important to remove ambiguities, if any, in the legal structure and to improve the ability of the organizations who are responsible for the implementation of cyber laws. For future researchers, it is suggested that causes and prevention mechanisms of other forms of CCTs which are related to organizations and institution should also be studied.

6. CONCLUSION Looking at the relationship between cyber communications threats (CCTs) victimization and students’ freedom of expressing (FoE) political and social views in online settings. The mixed results indicate that certain online crimes like cyber harassment and online identity theft can make the internet users more cautious about what they are sharing while other types of threats like receiving unwanted material, hacking, and viruses will not limit their online FoE. Pearson correlation coefficient showed that cyber harassment and online identity theft harm online freedom of expression about political and social views while receiving unwanted material, hacking and viruses showed positive correlation and having a positive effect on online FoE about political and social views. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s hacking victimization has in a significant relationship. Online FoE about social views and respondent’s viruses’ victimization has a significant relationship, the higher level of viruses is being related to higher levels of FoE about political issues. These findings support hypothesis partially that which stated that “It is more likely that higher level of CCTs faced by students will have a significant relationship with the online freedom of expression (FoE) regarding political and social issues”.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Aceto, G., & Pescapé, A. (2015). Internet censorship detection: A survey. Computer Networks, 83, 381-421. Ali, A., Saleem, M., & Shoib, M. (2015). An Analysis of Right to Information Laws of Pakistan and India. Assembly, U. G. (1948). Universal declaration of human rights. UN General Assembly, 302(2). Cannataci, J. A., Zhao, B., Torres Vives, G., Monteleone, S., Bonnici, J. M., & Moyakine, E. (2016). Privacy, free expression and transparency: redefining their new boundaries in the digital age: UNESCO Publishing. Collin, P., Rahilly, K., Richardson, I., & Third, A. (2011). The benefits of social networking services. *Corresponding author (A.Ullah Khan). Email: asgharullahadvocate@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11J http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.214

Duggan, M., Lee, R., Smith, A., Funk, C., Lenhart, A., & Madden, M. (2017). Online harassment 2017. The Pew Research Center (11 July 2017). Retrieved September 2017. Gay, L. R. (2013). Educational Research: Competencies for analysis and applications (7th Ed.). Upper Saddle River, London: Merrill Prentice Hall. Henson, B., Reyns, B. W., & Fisher, B. S. (2013). Fear of crime online? Examining the effect of risk, previous victimization, and exposure on fear of online interpersonal victimization. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 29(4), 475-497. Kann, M. E., Berry, J., Grant, C., & Zager, P. (2007). The Internet and youth political participation. First Monday, 12(8). Lenhart, A., Ybarra, M., Zickuhr, K., & Price-Feeney, M. (2016). Online harassment, digital abuse, and cyberstalking in America: Data and Society Research Institute. Marganski, A., & Melander, L. (2018). Intimate partner violence victimization in the cyber and real world: Examining the extent of cyber aggression experiences and its association with inperson dating violence. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 33(7), 1071-1095. Montgomery, K. C. (2009). Generation digital: Politics, commerce, and childhood in the age of the Internet: MIT press. Mahmood, S., & Shaukat, N. (2006). The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, 1973: Legal Research Centre. Penney, J. (2017). Can Cyber Harassment Laws Encourage Online Speech? Pereira, F., & Matos, M. (2016). Cyber-stalking victimization: What predicts fear among Portuguese adolescents? European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 22(2), 253270. Reisig, M. D., Pratt, T. C., & Holtfreter, K. (2009). Perceived risk of internet theft victimization: Examining the effects of social vulnerability and financial impulsivity. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36(4), 369-384. Zanuddin, H., Shin, C.Y. (2020). Relationship between new media literacy and motivation in solving fake news problem. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(8), 11A8I: 1-10. Shariff, S., & Hoff, D. L. (2007). Cyber bullying: Clarifying legal boundaries for school supervision in cyberspace. International Journal of Cyber Criminology, 1(1), 76-118. Sharma, I., & Alam, M. A. (2016). Privacy and Freedom Issues in Cyberspace with Reference to Cyber Law. International Journal of Computer Applications, 145(3). Spangler, T. (2017). IMDb Shuts Down Discussion Boards—Variety. http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/. UniRank. (2017). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa University Ranking. http://www.4icu.org/pk/khyber-pakhtunkhwa/

Retrieved June 2018,

Retrieved December 2017,

Vromen, A. (2008). Inclusion through voice: youth participation in government and community decision-making. Wilcox, P., Jordan, C. E., & Pritchard, A. J. (2007). A multidimensional examination of campus safety: Victimization, perceptions of danger, worry about crime, and precautionary behavior among college women in the post-Clery era. Crime & Delinquency, 53(2), 219-254. Wolak, J., Finkelhor, S. D., Mitchell, K. J., & Ybarra, M. L. (2010). Online “predators” and their

Asghar Ullah Khan and Robina Roshan

victims: Myths, realities, and implications for prevention and treatment. Psychology of violence, 1(S), 13-35. Yang, S.-M., & Wyckoff, L. A. (2010). Perceptions of safety and victimization: does survey construction affect perceptions? Journal of experimental criminology, 6(3), 293-323. Yılmaz, B. S., Doğru, H., & Bahçeci, V. (2017). What if you cannot access the internet in the surveillance society? Individuals’ perceptions related to internet censorship and surveillance in turkey. Journal of Media Critiques, 3(11). Asghar Ullah Khan is a PhD scholar at Department of Communication and Media Studies, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan. His research includes Cyber Threat.

Dr. Robina Roshan is an Assistant Professor at Department of Communication and Media Studies Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan. She got a PhD degree from Department of Communication & Media Studies, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan. Her research includes Violence Against Women. She can be reached at robina.roshan @ yahoo.com

*Corresponding author (A.Ullah Khan). Email: asgharullahadvocate@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11J http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.214

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11K

DETERMINANTS OF RETURN ON ASSETS OF NON-FINANCIAL FIRM OF MALAYSIA 1*

Hussain Tahir , Sarfraz Hussain , Anam Iqbal , 3 4 Ejaz Aslam , Ridzuan Masri 1

IUMW Business School, International University of Malaya-wales, Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA. Azman Hashim International Business School, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, MALAYSIA. 3 IIUM Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance School, International Islamic University Malaysia, MALAYSIA. 4 School of Management and Business, Manipal International University, MALAYSIA. 2

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 19 November 2019 Received in revised form 20 April 2020 Accepted 11 May 2020 Available online 20 May 2020

To identify the determinants of return on assets of non-financial firms, and to examine how firms’ different attributes affect the return on assets, this study uses a sample made up of 185 non-financial firms of Malaysia, covering the period 2005-2018. This paper uses ordinary least squire (OLS) and panel regression fixed effect, random effect model simultaneously. The results show the size of the board and board diversity exhibit insignificantly negative relationships with ROA in the Malaysian context, respectively. Financial leverage exhibit significant negatively influences the Malaysian non-financial firms. The dividend payout exhibit statistically significant and positive relationship with ROA in Malaysian non-financial firms, respectively. It is clearly stated that high ROAs lead the way in making good financial gains in Malaysia. However, board diversity negatively affects the ROA in Malaysian non-financial firm context, because most firms are familyowned. High dividend payout policy increases the ratio of return on assets, high dividend ratio attracts the more investment that upsurges the firm’s value and growth. The findings of research have significant policy consequences. The research contributes to the return on assets literature by viewing at the position of return on assets and its determinants in selected non-financial firms of Malaysia.

Keywords:

Financial leverage; Dividend payout policy; Board size; Board diversity; ROA; Fixed effect model; Random effect model; Leverage ratio.

1. INTRODUCTION The agency theory proposes that the being of different types of corporate board attributes apparatuses, financial constraints and financial decisions depend on agency costs. Thus, a system of *Corresponding author (H. Tahir) Email: baigtahir3636@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.215

corporate board attributes and financial decisions procedure is familiarized, which restraints management from following objectives that fail to maximize the owner’s wealth (Mahmood et al., 2014; Sarwar et al., 2018). An important procedure of the corporate board attributes and the financial decision system is the role of the corporate board members. The reason is that corporate board members are realized as the main means for stakeholders to control top management (John & Senbet, 1998). The board members have the responsibility to govern the organization’s inclusive policy, And to ensure that there are satisfactory controls to protect the owners' property (Keenan, 2004). The board also has several other responsibilities, including financial benefit investments, and profitable payment policy decisions, although in practice these responsibilities are vicarious to higher administration. Most of the specific research emphasizes the characteristics of the corporate board and the impact of such financial decisions on the return of assets. A very few experimental studies on ROA, corporate board attributes, and financial policy have focused on non-Malaysian companies (Farinha, 2003; Khan et al., 2019; Nguyen et al., 2019; Yurtoglu & Gugler, 2003). Considering the corporate board structure, ownership structure, financial structure and institutional framework working separately in most countries and continents, it is important to understand this issue from Malaysia's point of view as well. The utmost Anglo-Saxon states, like the US and UK, where investor protection is high. The stock ownership is often discrete, and it is claimed that each stockholder has only limited privileges and the capacity to oversee administration. The biggest contingent of corporate governance, accordingly, lies between powerful managers and small external shareholders. (Hamilton et al., 2019; Yurtoglu & Gugler, 2003). In South Korea and most of the ASEAN, the tools of general governance include their pyramid and business groups with cross-ownership structures. Legal requirements for governance in these nations are weak (Aslam et al., 2020: Claessens et al., 2000). Continental Europe, the main feature of corporate board attributes mechanism is that companies that have strong ownership structure, but their corporate legal system tends to play an insignificant role. The organizational board mechanism is also illustrated by massive stockholders. The mainstream regulator gives the major stockholder substantial influence over significant decisions, identically maintaining the level of financial leverage and an announcement of dividend (Tahir et al., 2020). In ASEAN economies, companies are typically detained by families and the corporate platform is considered by robust monitoring structures as well as high levels of stockholder shield because most of the investors from company owners’ families, however, family firms pay fewer dividends (Rajverma et al., 2019). In this regard, ASEAN offers a stimulating opportunity to examine the association between the corporate board, financial leverage, and dividend payout policy considering the differences in the degree of stockholder safeguard and return on assets. The significance of the research, subsequently deceits its input to the literature by offering a viewpoint on the board mechanism and corporate financial decisions in Malaysia. As usually, reflecting that corporate board mechanism, possession mechanism, and firm’s organizing backgrounds in Malaysia that is different from advanced nations. It also preserves some of the insights on sustainability versus stability between corporate governance and dividend policy for ASEAN countries under study. The present study is inspired as an agency viewpoint and scrutinizes the extent to which the corporate board attributes mechanism effect most on return on assets. Study

H.Tahir, S.Hussain, A.Iqbal, E.Aslam, R.Masri

emphasis generally on how corporate board attributes, financial leverage and dividend payout policy effect the ROA in Malaysia. Study particularly taken the registered non-financial firms from Kuala Lumpur Stock exchange because it has the most dynamic and effective stock market in ASEAN.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT The previous provisions, different competitive approaches affect the return on assets in different ways (Loukil et al., 2019; Masum & Khan, 2019). However, research is limited in emerging economies. Hashim (2000) says that the performance of SMEs in Malaysia varies according to the choice of business strategies they adopt. Prior researches have scrutinized the company performance factors but the studies investigating the effect of the board of members’ attributes are still limited. Agrawal et al. (2019) works on 1,700 Indian firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, for 2001-2016 and realize the annual stock returns of Indian companies as compared to the return of economic value-added assets.

2.1 CORPORATE BOARD SIZE AND ROA The bigger board possessed skill in information and knowledge over lesser board, large board helpful in improving the firm return on assets (Tahir et al., 2020). The research claimed that a higher quantity of board of directors is difficult to manipulate other directors and better monitoring on an organization's economic performance. Study contribute that the bigger size of the corporate board has more outside connections, aptitude to extract serious possessions like capital, and expertise in running the organization and these characteristics might lead to higher firms’ performance. Earlier research reveals that as corporate board size rises a conflict of interest will arise, as well as communication difficulties, which eventually decline company return on assets (Tahir et al., 2020). Larger companies, diversified companies, and companies that depend on additional on liabilities financing will derive better company worth from having bigger corporate boards (Aslam et al., 2019; Coles et al., 2008). Therefore, with the bigger board size, appropriate administration and control will be highlighted and help improve the firm’s return on assets and corporate nonfinancial performance. Thus, the hypothesis is given as H1: There is a positive relationship between board size and company return on assets.

2.2 CORPORATE FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND ROA There is an effect of financial leverage on companies’ profitability in the manufacturing sector in Turkey, the period from 2005 to 2011 (Reis et al., 2013). The regression analysis was conducted by utilizing financial data taken from annual reports of companies inside the scope of the investigation. Chinaemerem and Anthony (2012) scrutinized the impact of financial leverage on the company's’ ROA of Nigerian 30 non-financial companies of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The research used debt to equity ratio indicator, ROA, and ROE as factors of firm performance. The outcome displays that a company’s financial leverage has a negative and statistically significant effect on the company’s performance. The conclusion of this research show uniformity with *Corresponding author (H. Tahir) Email: baigtahir3636@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.215

previous experiential research and deliver indication in support of the theory of agency cost. However, Muritala (2018) scrutinizes the finest level of financial leverage finished in which a company can upsurge its financial performance using annual information of 10 companies of five years of data. The outcomes from PLS settle that return on assets, the firm’s size, age, and tangibility of a firm’s assets are positively associated with the company’s performance. Different studies used different proxies for measuring firm financial performance. Research of the brewery sector is measured by Nweze et al. (2012) to identify the company's performance by using the operating profit margin. On the other side, the net profit of commercial banks is measured for financial performance (Aslam et al., 2016; Olatunji & Adegbite, 2014). The present research developed net Income dividend by total assets for financial performance by calculating a simple average for ROA, of non-financial firms registered on Bursa Malaysia. This method was also taken by the research on the financial performance to assess the factors influencing financial performance of registered companies on Vietnam Stock Exchange and 2nd is conducted in the USA, where an assessment of the financial performance of that companies was through the use of return on assets (Byoun et al., 2016; Pham et al., 2019). Thus, the second hypothesis is given as H2: There is a negative relationship between financial leverage and company return on assets.

2.3 CORPORATE BOARD DIVERSITY AND ROA Specified the compensations of having corporate board diversity on board, where females board members may well understand specific market circumstances than its opposite sex, which may take more innovation and excellence to corporate board decision making (Khan & Abdul Subhan, 2019; Unite et al., 2019). Greater corporate gender diversity on the board may produce an improved public image of the company that may advance the company return of assets. Likewise, there is conceivable that the participation of females in board explore outside aptitude pool. Additionally, the number of feminine highest executives may positively affect the career development of females in inferior places by inspiring them as an inspirational model. Ladies’ and different minority clusters’ participation in the highest administration has become a very significant constituent in understanding attributes of the highest administration counting the BODs. Though, linking an attribute of the board of directors to companies’ return on assets will be an appreciated contribution. Many companies, there is a relationship between board diversity and, return on assets, finishing that female board sign is positively associated with ROA (Galbreath, 2018; Miller et al., 2013; Schmidt, 2019). The hypothesis states as H3: There is a positive relationship between Corporate Board Diversity and company return on assets.

2.4 CORPORATE DIVIDEND PAYOUT POLICY AND ROA Since the experiential literature, there is a mix of dividend payout ratio and company performance. The different research proposes a positive association while other provision of negative association. Some of such research also established no relationship between dividend payout and company performance. Miller (1961) study recommended that under specific supposition about the absolute capital market, payout policy choices being assumed by a company will not influence its rate of returns and market value, and contended that irrespectively how the company

H.Tahir, S.Hussain, A.Iqbal, E.Aslam, R.Masri

announces its earnings, the market value of the company will not be pretentious because it’s worth is strongminded by its core income and its investment power. This situation has been mainly disparaged by quite a lot of writers because in real-life circumstances because of the imperfect market, different circumstances such as taxes, transaction costs, asymmetric evidence and agency costs (Abdelsalam et al., 2008; Aslam et al., 2019; Amidu, 2006; Kajola et al., 2015). The dividends are significant to stockholders and possible shareholders because it is signed about firms’ earnings. Zhou & William, (2006) discovered that healthy dividend payout companies incline to experience robust upcoming incomes but despite the contradictory views of market observers, the previous low earnings have been relatively low. Agyei et al. (2011) reveal the association between dividend policy and ROA of sixteen banks (1993-2003) in Ghana and find a positive association identifies between dividend policy and ROA. The hypothesis is H4: There is a positive relationship between dividend payout policy and company return on assets. From all past researches, each board feature and financial constantans demonstrate the influences of each attribute on company return on assets are unpredictable. Thus, the influence can be positive or negative as each attribute has its pros and cons. Considering this indication on the attributes affect the company return on assets, there is still boulevard for extents of investigations where the corporate board of members’ attributes and financial constraints can be prolonged. Therefore, it is still a rising requirement to enlarge present literature and offer new experiential evidence on other board of directors’ attributes and financial constraints that are still not extensively studied in the earlier. Therefore, this study investigates the determinant of return on assets.

3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN This study sample has 185 non-financial firms (2,590 firms’ years-observations) of Bursa Malaysia for 2005-2018. Firms include to study have three criteria (1) Annual reports availability throughout 2005-2018 (2) Firm registered before 2005 (3) financial data availability throughout 2005-2018. This standard is used for two reasons. First and according to Al-Najjar and Kilincarslan (2016); Perafan et al. (2016); Mansourinia et al. (2013), standard allows to meet conditions for balanced panel data. Second, using both cross-sectional time-series data of 14 consecutive years allow us to deduct whether observed cross-sectional relationship between corporate board attributes, financial data, and return on assets holds over time. The study collected the financial data from Thomson Reuter DataStream and corporate board attributes data from respective Companies' annual reports that are directly downloaded from the Bursa Malaysia website. Table 1: Variable definition Variable ROA B_size Flev B_div DPR

Definition Net Income / total assets Number of the board of directors Total debt / total assets (financial leverage ratio) Number of women/ all board members Cash dividend/net income

*Corresponding author (H. Tahir) Email: baigtahir3636@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.215

3.2 VARIABLE MEASUREMENTS To examine board size, board independence, board tenure, board diversity/financial leverage relationship, the regression model is applied ROAijt = ɑijt +β1 B_SIZEijt+ β2 FLEVijt + β3 B_DIVijt + β4 DPR ijt + ε ijt

(1).

The subscribe ijt is the period and firm indicator, ε is an error term, while β1, β2, β3 are regression coefficients and ɑ is regression constant.

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION Table 2 described the summary statistics of the variables. The study for the ﬁnal sample of 2,590 ﬁrms-year observations over 2005-2018. The study reveals the general companies in Malaysia are not over-leveraged. Table 2: Descriptive statistics (OBS = 2,590) ROA B_SIZE FELV B_DIV DPR

MEAN 0.029 7.461 0.184 0.094 0.214

SD 0.189 1.834 0.183 0.113 0.404

MIN -2.312 3 0 0 -3.644

MAX 5.280 15 2.912 0.571 3.085

Table 3: Correlation matrix (OBS = 2590) ROA B_SIZE FELV B_DIV DPR

ROA 1 .0623 -.1711 .0433 .1581

B_SIZE

FELV

B_DIV

DPR

1 -.0249 -.0105 .1307

1 .0231 -.1314

1 .0081

VIF 1.05 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.03

Correlation matrix Table 3 shows the ROA positive with board size hence B_size has a negative relationship with financial leverage. The association between ROA and Flev is negative. However, B_DIV and DPR have a positive association with ROA is positive. Hence, the financial leverage relationship with board diversity is positive, and the association between B_DIV and DPR is positive. The multicollinearity (VIF) less than 1 to 1.05, Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) shows good multicollinearity between variables that allow us for further analysis of variables. Table 4: Ordinary Least Square (OLS). (Values in parentheses are t-statistics values). Variables B_SIZE FELV B_DIV DPR CONSTENT PROB>F, chi ADJ R2 OBS

H.Tahir, S.Hussain, A.Iqbal, E.Aslam, R.Masri

OLS 0.0042(2.16)** -0.1587(-7.96)*** 0.0776(2.41)*** 0.0618(6.78)*** 0.0055(0.35) *** 0.0503 2,590

4.1 OLS RESULTS ANALYSIS This study first conducted the OLS technique to identify the association between DV and IV. The study dependent variable is ROA. The relationship between board size and return on assets is positive and statistically significant means increase in board size the return on assets increase, respectively. ROA relationship with financial leverage is negative and significant which means when FELV increases the level of ROA decrease, respectively. If a company wants to increase the ROA must reduce the ratio of financial leverage. However, the relationship between B_DIV and DPR significant and positive, an increase in the number of female board members affects the ROA positively. Hence, board diversity increases in corporate board the return on assets increase that already identify in many scholarly works, board diversity influenced on corporate financial decision making that may enforce the board to avoid the biases. The association of corporate dividend payout policy and return on assets is positive means if a firm increases the dividend payout ratio that will be helpful in ROA that is already identified by different scholarly work. The increase in dividend payout ratio helps attract more investment that allows the firm to invest in more profitable projects. Based on the OLS model (Table 4), all the hypotheses results are on expectations which are predicted in hypothesis development, and F statistic is significant. Thus, this study identify all the stated hypotheses are accepted. Table 5: Multivariate analysis (OBS = 2590) (Values in parentheses are t-statistics values). Variables B_SIZE FELV B_DIV DPR CONSTENT PROB>F, chi ADJ R2

Fixed effect -0.0004(-0.10) -0.2765(-10.42)*** -0.0013(-0.02) 0.0397(3.80)*** 0.0740(2.71)*** *** 0.05

Random effect 0.0034(1.41) -0.2001(-9.07)*** 0.0609(1.59)* 0.0519(5.46)*** 0.0238(1.24) *** 0.095

This study uses panel data, therefor study conducted the fixed effect (FE), random effect (RE) technique which supports the continuous panel data using the STATA SE 14.2. For identification of the difference between FE and RE, the Hausman test is used as an appropriate technique for this specific data. For the sake of multivariate, the relationship between ROA and board size in FE is negative however statistically significant, which means an upsurge in B_SIZE effect negatively on ROA, and the B_SIZE association in RE is positive and insignificant. The association between ROA and financial leverage is negative and statistically significant which means if the company increases the FLEV that negatively affects the ROA. In a random effect, the relationship between ROA and FELV is the same as FE. The association between board diversity and ROA is negative and the relationship statistically insignificant means corporate non-financial firms in the Malaysian context increases the number of women in the corporate board that negatively affect the ROA. In a random effect, the association between B_DIV is significant and positively influences the ROA which is opposed to the fixed effect. The association between corporate dividend policy and return on asset is positive and *Corresponding author (H. Tahir) Email: baigtahir3636@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.215

statistically significant which means increases in dividend payout policy that parallel to retune on assets. If a corporate firm increases the ratio of dividend payout policy the ROA automatically upsurged. On the other side, in random effect, the same results are identified like FE, the relationship between corporate dividend payout policy and ROA. The FE adjusted R2 is 0.05 which less than the RE R2 that is 0.095. To differentiate the technique between fixed effect and random effect, when Hausman test >0.05 the FE is an appropriate technique.

5. DISCUSSION Table 4 introduced the outcomes of the OLS estimation of equations. This technique allowed the recognition of latent omitted-variable bias. Inclusive, the OLS results in Table 4 nosedive to backing any of the study whole hypotheses. OLS results in limitations highlighted when examining the company ROA. Table4 results proposed that the variables of attention (i.e., the board size, financial leverage, board diversity, and dividend payout policy) have a mixed statistically significant and insignificant effect on ROA. The adjusted R2 is good, portentous that the joint instructive influence of these variables is decent. These outcomes verify the hypothetical study prospects and most of the prior detections that are described in the literature (Farinha, 2003; Khan et al., 2019; Nguyen et al., 2019; Yurtoglu & Gugler, 2003). Hence, the single country' speciďŹ c factor is bias the measures of family possession, when utilizing this estimation model. Companies with high asset value and lower capital necessities of big financing have, on average, a high ratio of dividend announcements that ROA. The fixed effect regression outcomes in Table 5 settle critical issues that ascend at what time using OLS regression. Entirely, variables of attention are estimated with a robustness fixed-effect model. Board size -0.0004(-0.10) has a statistically positive and insignificant association with ROA in FE study reject the null hypothesis. Financial leverage -0.2765(-10.42)*** negative and statistically significant which means if the company increases the financial leverage that negatively impacts the ROA study reject the null hypothesis. Board diversity -0.0013(-0.02) has a negative association and statistically insignificant relationship with ROA in fixed-effect based on results the study does not reject the null hypothesis. However, the relationship between corporate firm dividend payout policy and return on assets 0.0397(3.80)*** is positive and statistically significant study rejects the null hypothesis.

6. CONCLUSION This work has investigated the determinant of return on assets. A multi-technique singlecountry approach was applied to conduct this research. This research denotes a couple of significant contributions to business ďŹ nance literature. Primary, study foregrounds the importance of using multiple experimental methods to improve the robustness of outcomes. It also emphasizes the constraints of conventional multiple OLS regression techniques. The outcomes propose that FE and RE with the use of the Housman test offered profound experimental intentions. Although the regression investigation fixed effect (LSDV) introduced unifacial averages, it shows a supplementary path to upsurge return on assets even with the high dividend payout policy and less financial leverage of non-financial firms of Malaysia. The application of multi-methods is

H.Tahir, S.Hussain, A.Iqbal, E.Aslam, R.Masri

convenient for understanding composite associations. Additionally, this study reports thought-provoking results for researchers and practitioners. This study was established based on agency theory that emphasized the theoretical fundamentals that are utilized to observe the association between board attributes, financial constraints and return on assets. The information extracted from this research can assist practitioners, lawmakers, and investors to develop strategies for business and investment plans. This research is not deprived of limitations. It reﬂects the overall conditions of a pool of mixed and non-financial companies. More studies are desirable to familiarize the lessons erudite from this work to change markets, economies, and regions. More works should be established to describe the unidentified reasons for fluctuations of board attributes, financial constraints and return on assets.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

8. REFERENCES Abdelsalam, O., El-Masry, A., & Elsegini, S. (2008). Board composition, ownership structure and dividend policies in an emerging market: Further evidence from CASE 50. Managerial Finance, 34(12), 953– 964. Agrawal, A., Mohanty, P., & Totala, N. K. (2019). Does EVA Beat ROA and ROE in Explaining the Stock Returns in Indian Scenario? An Evidence Using Mixed Effects Panel Data Regression Model. Management and Labour Studies, 44(2), 103–134. Al-Najjar, B., & Kilincarslan, E. (2016). The effect of ownership structure on dividend policy: evidence from Turkey. Corporate Governance (Bingley), 16(1). Amidu, A. (2006). Determinants of dividend payout ratios in Ghana’,. The Journal of Risk Finance, 7(2), 136-145. Aslam, E., Haron, R., & Ahmad, S. (2020). A comparative analysis of the performance of Islamic and conventional banks: does corporate governance matter? Int. J. Business Excellence, 20(3), 1–13. Aslam, E., Haron, R., & Tahir, M. N. (2019). How director remuneration impacts firm performance: An empirical analysis of executive director remuneration in Pakistan. Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(2), 186– 196. Aslam, E., Ijaz, F., & Iqbal, A. (2016). Does Working Capital and Financial Structure Impact Profitability of Islamic and Conventional Banks Differently? Islamic Banking and Finance Review, 3(1), 50–67. Aslam, E., Kalim, R., & Fizza, S. (2019). Do Cash Holding and Corporate Governance Structure Matter for the Performance of Firms? Evidence from KMI 30-and KSE 100-Indexed Firms in Pakistan. Global Business Review, 20(2), 313–330. Byoun, S., Chang, K., & Kim, Y. S. (2016). Does Corporate Board Diversity Affect Corporate Payout Policy? Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 45(1), 48–101. Chinaemerem, O. C., & Anthony, O. (2012). Impact of capital structure on the financial performance of Nigerian firms. Oman Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 34(969), 1– 19. Claessens, S., Djankov, S., & Lang, L. H. P. (2000). The separation of ownership and control in East Asian corporations. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1–2), 81–112. Coles, J. L., Daniel, N. D., & Naveen, L. (2008). Boards: Does one size fit all? Journal of Financial *Corresponding author (H. Tahir) Email: baigtahir3636@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.215

Economics, 87(2), 329–356. Farinha, J. (2003). Dividend policy, corporate governance and the managerial entrenchment hypothesis: An empirical analysis. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 30(9), 1173-1209. Galbreath, J. (2018). Is Board Gender Diversity Linked to Financial Performance? The Mediating Mechanism of CSR. Business and Society, 57(5), 863–889. Hamilton, Li., Mitchell, L., & Mangan, A. (2019). Contemporary Issues in Management: A Critical Management Approach. Edward Elgar Publishing. John, K., & Senbet, L. W. (1998). Corporate governance and board effectiveness. Journal of Banking & Finance, 22(4), 371–403. Kajola, S. O., Desu, A. A., & Agbanike, T. F. (2015). Factors influencing dividend payout policy decisions of Nigerian listed firms. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 3(6), 539– 557. Keenan, J. (2004). Corporate governance in UK/USA boardrooms. Corporate Governance: An International Review, 12(2), 172–176. Khan, A. W., & Abdul Subhan, Q. (2019). Impact of board diversity and audit on firm performance. Cogent Business and Management, 6(1), 1–16. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2019.1611719 Loukil, N., Yousfi, O., & Yerbanga, R. (2019). Does gender diversity on boards influence stock market liquidity? Empirical evidence from the French market. Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society. Mahmood, M., Khan, S., Ijaz, F., & Aslam, E. (2014). Determinants of Profitability of Islamic Banking Industry : An Evidence from Pakistan. Determinants of Profitability of Islamic Banking Industry: An Evidence from Pakistan, 6(2), 27–46. Mansourinia, E., Emamgholipour, M., Rekabdarkolaei, E. A., & Hozoori, M. (2013). The effect of board size, board independence and CEO duality on dividend policy of companies. International Journal of Economy, Management and Social Sciences, 2(6), 237–241. Masum, M. H., & Khan, M. M. (2019). Impacts of Board Characteristics on Corporate Performance: Evidence from Bangladeshi Listed Companies. International Business and Accounting Research Journal, 3(1), 47–57. Miller, M., and F. M. (1961). “Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares.” 411–433. Miller, T., Triana, M., & Trzebiatowski, T. (2013). Board Gender Diversity, Performance, and Power of Women Directors as Predictors of Strategic Change. Academy of Management Proceedings, 1(1), 1–24. Muritala, T. A. (2018). An empirical analysis of capital structure on firms’ performance in Nigeria. IJAME. Nguyen, D., Kiet, T., & Thuan, L. T. (2019). examine the determinant factors on financial. 72–85. Olatunji, T., & Adegbite, T. (2014). Investment in Fixed Assets and Firm Profitability: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Banking Sector. Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies, 1(3), 78–82. Rajverma, A. K., Arrawatia, R., Misra, A. K., Chandra, A., & Mcmillan, D. (2019). Ownership structure influencing the joint determination of dividend, leverage, and cost of capital. Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1–25. Sarwar, B., Xiao, M., Husnain, M., & Naheed, R. (2018). Board financial expertise and dividend-paying behavior of firms. Management Decision, 56(9), 1839–1868. https://doi.org/10.1108/md-11-2017-1111 Schmidt, I. M. (2019). Board Gender Diversity and Firm performance : How do Educational Levels and Board Gender Quotas affect this Relationship ? Evidence from Europe. Faculty of Economics and Business, 3476871, 0–42.

H.Tahir, S.Hussain, A.Iqbal, E.Aslam, R.Masri

Tahir, H., Masri, R., Rahman, M., (2020). Corporate Board Attributes and Dividend Pay-out Policy: Mediating Role of Financial Leverage. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 7(1), 167181. Tahir, H., Rahman, M., & Masri, R. (2020). Do board traits influence firms’ dividend payout policy? Evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 7(3), 87-99. Tahir, H., & Ridzuan Masri1 & Mahfuzur Rahman2. (2020). Determinants of Dividend Pay-Out Policy of Listed Non-financial Firms in Malaysia. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(2), 68–76. Unite, A. A., Sullivan, M. J., & Shi, A. A. (2019). Gender Diversity in Boards and Performance of Philippine Publicly Traded Firms: Do Women Matter? International Advances in Economic Research, 14. Yurtoglu, B. B., & Gugler, K. (2003). Corporate governance and dividend pay-out policy in Germany. European Economic Review, 47(4), 731–758. Zhou, P., & Willi am, R. (2006). Dividend Payout and Future Earnings Growth. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(3), 58–69. Hussain Tahir is a PhD student at IUMW Business School, International University of Malaya-Wales, Malaysia. He got his Master’s degree in Busines Finance,International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan. His researches are Corporate Governance, Financial management, Dividend Payout policy, Corporate governance.

Sarfraz Hussain is a student at Azman Hashim International Business School, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He is an Assistant professior at Govt. Imamia College Sahiwal, Pakistan.

Anam Iqbal is a PhD scholar at IIUM Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, International Islamic Universiety Malaysia. She got her Master’s degree in Finance, University of Management & Technology Lahore-Pakistan. Her areas of research are Corporate Governance, Earning management, and working capital.

Ejaz Aslam is a PhD Scholar at the IIUM Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. His research is in Banking and Finance, Corporate Governance, and Cash Flow.

Dr.Ridzuan Masri is a Senoir Lecturer at School of Management and Business, Manipal International University, Malaysia. He holds a BBA, a MBA, and a PhD in Marketing. His areas of research are Marketing, Management, Islamic Management, Strategic Management, Business Ethics.

Trademarks Disclaimer: All product names including trademarks™ or registered® trademarks mentioned in this article are the property of their respective owners, using for identification and educational purposes only. Use of them does not imply any endorsement or affiliation.

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PAPER ID: 11A11L

CLASSIFICATION OF SCREW RELATIONAL DRUMS Alexey Marchenko

Department of Descriptive Geometry and Graphics, Kuban State Agrarian University named after I.T. Trubilin, RUSSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 10 February 2020 Received in revised form 04 May 2020 Accepted 08 May 2020 Available online 22 May 2020

This article develops and presents a classification of screw relational drums for machines. The results of the study are summarized and presented in graphical form in the form of constructions of currently known screw relational drums that ensure the horizontal movement of bulk materials (feed components) and intensify the interaction with each other and from the wall of screw relational drums, which expands the technological capabilities and reduces the size equipment and their mass.

Keywords: Screw relational drums designs; Helical drum; Screw classification; Smooth helical lines; Disciplinary: Mechanical and Machine Engineering. Broken helical lines, Feed preparation machine; Spiral helical relational ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH. drums.

1. INTRODUCTION An analysis of the state and prospects for the development of technologies and equipment for the preparation of feeds allowed us to conclude that to increase productivity, feed preparation machines with working bodies are needed in which the feed preparation process would be carried out not only with the volumetric interaction of the particles of the feed components, but also the process itself preparation of feed would occur during the transportation of particles of feed components in an unoriented state in the working organ not a feed preparation machine from loading to unloading (Marchenko, 2020; Timuska & Sundström, 2001). This work aims to create a progressive process for the preparation of feed, based on the use of continuous machines, with working bodies in the form of screw relational drums.

2. METHOD The combination of transport and technological functions is ensured by the installation of flat, curvilinear or rod elements along the perimeter of the working body of the feed preparation machines *Corresponding author (Alexey Marchenko). Email: ipmarchenko@rambler.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11L http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.216

(Marchenko, 2009), multidirectional with respect to helical lines along its perimeter, as well as devices with a complex surface around the perimeter and with tension springs fixed inside, in which compound screw effect. We call such aggregates and devices with different configurations relational, as this is a general term that takes in conventions, similarities, relativity from certain conditions, forms, and purposes. Therefore, they are called screw relational drums. Changing the layout of flat, curvilinear, or rod elements in screw relational drums allows you to control the complex spatial motion of the flows of particles of the components of the feed, i.e. increase or decrease the performance of feed preparation or regulate the quality of feed. To impart low-frequency vibrations with a large amplitude of 15-1000 mm or more to the components of the feed components, the spatial shape of the helical relational drums is formed by mounting flat, curvilinear or rod elements around their perimeter. As a result of the studies, classification of relational screw drums was created (Figure 1) and Figures 2-9 which show the designs of screw relational drums: - cylindrical (RC) - conventional cylindrical shape; - conical (RK) - conditionally conical shape; - convex (RVP) â€”conditionally convex in shape; - concave (RVG) - conditionally concave shape; - rod (RP) - mounted from helical rods; - annular (RKO) â€”conditionally annular in shape with a conditionally broken outer surface, along the perimeter of which broken or curved helical lines are located. - spiral (RS) - conditionally spiral form; - square (RCA) of course square shape.

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION Each of these types of relational screw drums includes 7 classes located along the perimeter: 1st class - continuous broken lines; 2nd class - in separate sections of broken helical lines rotated relative to each other; 3rd class - directed towards each other by broken helical lines of the same pitch; 4th class - with four broken helical lines and two broken helical lines of the opposite direction; 5th class - three helical directionals from loading to unloading, and two broken helical lines of the opposite direction; 6th class - broken lines of the same direction; 7th class - smooth helical lines in one direction.

Alexey Marchenko

Figure 1: Classification of screw relational drums Moreover, the classes of all types of screw relational drums can differ in the number of helical or zigzag lines, for example: subclass a - three (n); subclass b - four (n + 1); subclass in - five (n + 2); subclass g - six (n + 3), etc. We will try to imagine the movement of the components of the feed, for example, peas (within the material point). In screw relational drums of the 4th and 5th classes, these movements are determined by the ratio of the screw parameters of the step and the number of approaches. In screw relational drums of the 6th and 7th classes, the direction of axial movement is uniquely determined. In screw relational drums of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd classes, if you think completely abstractly, there should not be axial movement. Therefore, when installing feed preparation machines with screw relational drums of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd classes, a slight (3-7Âş) slope is created so that due to the acting gravity force to create movements of the feed components in the right direction, to a certain extent, this is facilitated by the intake of feed components, and the multidirectional of the screw surfaces creates a mixing effect. *Corresponding author (Alexey Marchenko). Email: ipmarchenko@rambler.ru ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11L http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.216

Figure 2: Classification of cylindrical drums of screw relational drums.

Figure 3: Classification of cylindrical drums of helical relational drums

Alexey Marchenko

Figure 4: Classification of conical helical relational drums

Figure 5: Classification of conical helical relational drums *Corresponding author (Alexey Marchenko). Email: ipmarchenko@rambler.ru Â©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11L http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.216

Figure 6: Classification of convex helical relational drums

Figure 7: Classification of concave helical relational drums

Alexey Marchenko

Figure 8: Classification of ring helical relational drums

*Corresponding author (Alexey Marchenko). Email: ipmarchenko@rambler.ru Â©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11L http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.216

Figure 9: Classification of spiral helical relational drums

Figure 10: Classification of square helical relational drums

Based on the results of the research, classification of screw relational drums has been created, with the help of which, like a periodic table, it is possible to find new original designs of screw relational drums using the methods known in the classification using descriptive geometry and engineering graphics using the Compass-3D software package.

Alexey Marchenko

4. CONCLUSION The article does not only present a classification of screw relational drums but also outlines ways to optimize the dimensions of the working bodies of equipment in the form of screw relational drums. Varieties of types of screw relational drums, their classes and subclasses are shown, which allow to select the working body of the feed preparation machine with the given parameters according to the characteristics of the feeds, and thus solve the problem of optimizing the designs of feed preparation machines as a whole. The approbation of the classification of screw relational drums was carried out, with the help of which the original designs of screw relational drums were created, the novelty of which was confirmed by 87 patents of the Russian Federation (e.g. Marchenko et al., 2009; 2012).

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

6. REFERENCES Timuska, K., & Sundström, M. (2001). Oil-free screw rotor apparatus. U.S. Patent No. 6,302,667. Washington, DC: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Marchenko, A. (2020). Development of Preparing Feed Machines. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(8), 11A8A, 1-11. Marchenko A.Yu., Serga G.V., Tsybulevsky V.V., Kholyavko E.V., Goryachev A.S., E.G., Nefedov P.A., Snegovsky A.B. (2012). Vibration device for mixing Federation Pat. No. 2467670. IPC A23N17/00; applicant and patent holder Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Kuban State Agrarian 2011101096/13; declared 01/12/2011; publ. 07/20/2012, Bull. No. 33, 8 p.

Chernyshenko feed. Russian Federal State University. №

Marchenko A.Yu., Serga G.V., Tsybulevsky V.V., Serga M.G. (2009). Drum feed mixer. Pat. No. 2373809 Russian Federation, IPC A23N17/00; applicant and patent holder Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Kuban State Agrarian University. No. 2008121050/13; declared 05/26/2008; publ. 11/27/2009, Bull. No. 33, 8 p. Dr.Alexey Marchenko is an Associate Professor at the Department of Descriptive Geometry and Graphics, Kuban State Agrarian University named after I.T. Trubilin, Krasnodar, Russia. He is a Candidate of Technical Sciences. His research emphasizes on Feed Machineries.

*Corresponding author (Alexey Marchenko). Email: ipmarchenko@rambler.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN2228-9860 eISSN1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11L http://TUENGR.COM/V10A/11A11L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.216

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11M

RUSSIAN REINDUSTRIALIZATION MECHANISM Gumar Batov 1*, Lyudmila Khutova 2, Larisa Makoeva 3, Aza Gusalova 3, Margarita Bolatova 3 1

Institute of Informatics and Regional Management Problems “Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, RUSSIA. 2 Department of Finance and Credit, North Caucasus State Academy, RUSSIA. 3 Department of Economic Theory and Applied Economics, Gorskiy State Agrarian University, RUSSIA. ARTICLEINFO

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Article history: Received 16 January 2020 Received in revised form 02 May 2020 Accepted 12 May 2020 Available online 22 May 2020

Reindustrialization is a trend in the modern development of economic sectors. It forms a new understanding of the roles of industry, creates a new geography of productive forces, and ensures the transfer of all sectors of the economy to new high-tech foundations. For Russian Federation, re-industrialization should be an ongoing Keywords: process and its role is to create those industrial sectors on a new Instruments of technological basis, the loss of which is fraught with a quick lag behind reindustrialization; Russian industrial policy; the leading countries and the consolidation of a regime dependent on external factors in industrial and technological development. Industrialization Reindustrialization can be implemented using various methods and methods; Technological methods, based on technological innovations, new knowledge, digital development; Reindustrialization technologies, and lies in the fact that this large-scale event and policy; Technology and comprehensive activities to change technological, production, economic innovation investment. and social processes. Without solving these problems, the effective development of production will become problematic, the more analysts connect the further growth of the world economy with industry and industrial sectors. For successful re-industrialization in the country, cardinal changes in investment behavior, technological solutions, and organizational models are needed that will improve the efficiency of the entire process of updating industrial production. Only with an integrated approach can a sustainable technological modernization be achieved. In whatever situation the economy and the material sphere as a whole are, the strategic direction can only be the policy of reindustrialization. Disciplinary: Management and Economic Science, Technological Modernization, Innovation and Sustainability Development. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION In many countries, especially developed ones, there is a rethinking of the role of industrial *Corresponding author (G.Batov). Tel: +7-989-99-7555-7. Email: gumarbatov@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction

Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.217

development, plans, programs, and strategies that are being developed for transferring all sectors of the economy to a new high-tech foundation. In these countries, it realized that further development of the economy is possible only based on orientation towards restoring the potential of industrial production, updating industrial capital, increasing its competitiveness through the achievements of scientific and technological progress. Each country, depending on its characteristics, offers its methods of resolving problems associated with the development of industrial production. With the difference of these models for different countries, they have something in common, which is the main direction and this direction is the updating, modernization, and development of the material base of the economy on a new technological basis or reindustrialization. Many researchers are involved in reindustrialization issues. S. Bodrunov [1], who was one of the first to deal with the issues of reindustrialization, made his contribution to the research of this subject, R. Greenberg [2] studied the industrial sectors that could form the core of reindustrialization, S. Gubanov [3] examined the features of neo-industrialization. Lenchuk [4] investigated the problems of deindustrialization, the causes of its occurrence and suggested solutions, N. Komkov [5] substantiated the technological aspects of reindustrialization, Romanova [6] examined the strategic foundations of reindustrialization, Sukharev [7] recommended approach to the re-industrialization as an economic policy. Foreign researchers are also involved in these issues, but they interpret reindustrialization as an industrial revolution. These include Rifkin [8], who represents reindustrialization as the third industrial revolution, Schwab [9] and Davis [[9] connect reindustrialization with digital technologies, Perez [10] and Freeman [11] determine the need for industrial policy, Reinert [12] proves the preference for the development of industrial sectors. The listed researchers and those who could not be noted contribute to the solution of the difficult problems associated with reindustrialization. For the Russian economy, re-industrialization should be an ongoing process. Its role is to create, on a new technological basis, such industrial sectors that will not keep pace with leading countries and reduce dependence on external factors in industrial and technological development.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study method is based on the use of a systematic approach and generally scientific methods: scientific abstraction, analysis, and synthesis, generalization, system-structural analysis. During the development of the proposed topics, classical and modern works of domestic and foreign scientists, statistical and empirical material collected in the process of field research were used.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS The problems related to reindustrialization are so extensive that they require methodological and conceptual certainty. When we talk or write about this issue, we use such definitions as: “industrialization”, “deindustrialization”, “reindustrialization” or “new industrialization”, “neo-industrialization”. Each of these terms has its semantic load and its terminological purpose or replace each other. The generic concept of these terms is the concept of "industrialization". According to the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, industrialization (from Lat. Industria - zeal, activity), is the process of creating large-scale machine production in all sectors of the economy and especially in industry.

Gumar Batov, Lyudmila Khutova, Larisa Makoeva, Aza Gusalova, Margarita Bolatova

Industrialization ensures the predominance of industrial production in the country's economy, the transformation of an agrarian or agrarian-industrial country into an industrial-agrarian or industrial one. Nature, pace, sources of funds, goals, and social consequences of industrialization are determined by the industrial relations prevailing in a given country. In the process of industrialization, the replacement of existing fixed assets by more productive machinery and equipment, the release of manual workers. The essence of industrialization is the complete mechanization and partial automation of production, where people using machines within the framework of an industrial facility, industrial production produce various goods. In this case, the person carries out the operational management of production processes [13].

3.1 ASPECTS AND COMPLEXITIES OF REINDUSTRIALIZATION Reindustrialization is a complex concept, attached to it by the fact that it is used to justify the development of various industries that have different patterns of development. Machine-building, machine-tool industry, light industry, non-ferrous metallurgy, processing industry, etc., they all develop in different patterns, with their inherent features and specificity. The use of aspects of reindustrialization is also associated with methodological difficulties, which are given to it by the lack of a universally recognized interpretation of this concept, with the definition of object boundaries, principles, and mechanisms. The work [14] attempted to clarify the concept of “reindustrialization” and related definitions. We analyzed existing approaches to defining the concepts of “reindustrialization,” “neoindustrialization,” and “new reindustrialization,” carried out a criterial analysis of the content of these terms and pointed out the main goals and instruments of the reindustrialization policy in modern foreign practice, and defined these terms. Reindustrialization is associated with such definitions as restoration, transfer, modernization, structural adjustment, renewal, implementation, revival. With a difference in their understanding and interpretation of the substantive part, they all touch upon issues of updating (replacement), modification (change), innovation (innovation) of the production process of industrial branches or the whole industry. Whatever term we use, they all agree on one thing. We are talking about the industry and industrial sectors, which must be subjected to various changes that will contribute to increased productivity and competitiveness. That is, we are dealing with a triad: industry - labor productivity competitiveness. This is a general plan for reindustrialization or a strategic direction. How and how to implement reindustrialization depends on various factors, the methods used, as well as on the strategic goals that are planned to be implemented.

3.2 RE-INDUSTRIALIZATION STRATEGY AND POLICY As an example, we consider the work of a peasant farm (peasant farm), which located in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (Komsomolskoye, Prokhladnensky district). It was engaged in the production of livestock products (meat and milk), but the products did not bring sufficient profit and was unprofitable. The managers of the enterprise decided to change the development policy and chose as their re-industrialization strategy the milk production. The choice of such a system justified by advantage over other participants by three factors. First is the availability of land (pasture), second *Corresponding author (G.Batov). Tel: +7-989-99-7555-7. Email: gumarbatov@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction

is free space for the maintenance of the dairy herd, and the third was nearness to the milk processing factory. The company bought 100 heads of Holstein-Friesian breed of cows. Purchased robotic milking machines of the German company Westphal-Mobile for these cows. In total, the cost of equipment amounted to 60 million rubles, of which 21 million rubles are government subsidies. Serving the animals and the equipment carried out by two people, all the processes for caring for the cows are automated. The farm's production indicators are high, with an average annual milk yield of 9,500 kg, calf yield 98%, profitability from milk sales 28%. In the immediate plans of the enterprise is to the construction of a new building for the installation of a second robotic line. The farm can afford this because it has a sown area of 1000 hectares. Also, some rooms will allow for installing new equipment and place livestock. Based on this, a decision was made in 2020 to double the number of cows. This issue will have to be resolve despite the difficulties created by the viral infection. They realized that animal husbandry is becoming a promising and profitable industry.

3.3 DILEMMA OF RELEVANT TECHNOLOGY The most severe problem of those who purchased robotic farms is the lack of local specialists who would understand the computer systems with which the equipment equipped. In the event of failure of a part or material, you have to consult with foreign specialists or colleagues from other regions, and sometimes they are invited to troubleshoot. All this brings additional costs. Robotic farms, which dramatically increased milk production, had a positive effect on the processing industry, they gave a cumulative impact. Currently, there is a need to expand and increase existing capacities for milk processing and the construction of new ones. To solve the problem, it planned to build two milk processing plants based on Prokhladnoye OJSC and Concern-Real LLC with a capacity of 20 tons of milk per day. They will have been locating in two regions of the republic. The implementation of new investment projects in the dairy industry will lead to an increase in production by 30% and the expansion of the range of products. The Nalchik Dairy Plant (NMK) also began reindustrialization. A robotic farm, which discussed a little higher, is the supplier of raw materials for the plant. The plant carries out modernization and reconstruction using digital technologies and, if in the past, the plant used SCADA, RFID, partly ERP, now it launches new lines based on the information and digital technologies. The plant began to introduce a PLM-system, which will provide for the management of the product life cycle. A characteristic feature of this system is its ability to ensure interactions between different manufacturers and various enterprises. The goal of introducing digital technologies is to increase labor productivity, reduce production costs, improve product quality and consumer satisfaction, consolidate competitive advantages. The use of information technology to automate the production process, control logistics, and optimize operating costs will allow the company to save up to 10 to 14% of costs. Increasing production volumes and improving product quality allowed the enterprise (NMK) to expand the geography of sales, penetrate and gain a foothold in the dairy markets of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Stavropol and Krasnodar Territories, which themselves are producers of food products. Our understanding and approach to reindustrialization are that we consider reindustrialization as

Gumar Batov, Lyudmila Khutova, Larisa Makoeva, Aza Gusalova, Margarita Bolatova

a technological policy, the essence of which is to modernize the technological basis (fixed assets or means of production) of industrial sectors and the entire material sphere based on new (innovative, digital, nanocrystalline, etc.) technologies Replacing existing fixed assets with modern, more productive and environmentally sound ones.

3.4 MECHANISMS AND INSTRUMENTS OF REINDUSTRIALIZATION Reindustrialization should be a continuous process, in modern conditions, its role should consist (taking into account emerging trends in the development of the world economy) in the constant creation of a new technological basis of those industries whose loss is fraught with a quick lag behind the leading countries. To solve these problems re-industrialization should have a set of mechanisms and tools (Figure 1). The integrated use of these mechanisms and tools will allow the economic entity (firm, enterprise, company, industry) to gain a competitive advantage.

Digital technology

Industrial policy

Public Private Partnership

Innovation

Reindustrialization

Offshoring

Export

Import substitution

Figure 1: Mechanisms and instruments of reindustrialization. Speaking about reindustrialization, it is necessary to indicate what is the reason for reindustrialization, which generates it. There may be various factors, and one of them is deindustrialization. As Lenchuk [4] states, “deindustrialization as an economic process is the result of a large-scale reduction in the demand markets for the products of national producers as a result of the dynamic loss of their competitiveness and inability to fend off the process of its decline. At the same time, we are talking about such a scale of decline in industrial activity, which, in turn, leads to deep degradation of the main factors of industrial production, significantly worsening the conditions for their reproduction not only in terms of value but also in the physical sense. There is physical and moral aging of industrial funds; not only a large-scale reduction in those employed in industry, but also the loss of skills of industrial labor, the demand for highly skilled labor, including engineering, and the quality of its reproduction are reduced; production teams break up, traditional national industrial brands leave the market ”[4].

3.5 DEINDUSTRIALIZATION Developed and developing countries, including Russia, also faced de-industrialization. But the *Corresponding author (G.Batov). Tel: +7-989-99-7555-7. Email: gumarbatov@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction

origin of this phenomenon is different. For developed countries, the process of deindustrialization is mainly associated with the transfer of production to other countries in the “search” of ways to reduce costs, especially labor and competitiveness. In Russia, deindustrialization has other reasons; they are determined by the transformation processes that were carried out in the 90s. As a result, the industrial-basic sectors of the economy were destroyed. The consequences were difficult not only for Russia but also for other republics that were part of the country. Tarash and Golodnyuk [15] note: “one of the main reasons for the deindustrialization of the economy in post-Soviet countries during the period of market reforms was the mass fragmentation of integral property complexes, as a result of which unified technological chains of production were destroyed”.

3.6 REINDUSTRIALIZATION ISSUES Almost all countries of the world are involved in reindustrialization issues, but this process in each of them occurs in different ways. All of them use certain methods and methods that match the characteristics of these countries. Before the crisis, both developed and developing countries paid special attention to the problems of offshoring and outsourcing, which in general means the process of transferring various types of activities outside the country or corporation. Now the reverse operation is taking place, returning to the metropolis or to the territories from where they were transferred. The process of redeploying an industrial enterprise to our country can be carried out in various ways. These include re-scoring, back-shoring, and no-scoring. Restoring is the return of industrial production to the country where the parent company is located, is the reverse process of offshoring. Backshoring is understood as the return of part of the production process that used to be in another country, its reconstruction, and concentration on the domestic territory. Nyershoring is usually called the transfer of offshore operations to a country located next to the country of registration of the parent company. Of interest are the methods and methods of carrying out reindustrialization by various countries and their comparative analysis. Especially now, when most countries are intensively engaged in this process. We begin our analysis with the United States, which is at the forefront of this issue. The US uses such a method as reshoring - the return to the historical homeland of industries previously transferred to other countries. But they should not “return” with the baggage that was transferred to another country, not with the technologies that they used in the host country, but with completely new ones created or being created in the country. In the US, this is done at the state level and administratively. We agree with Zakharov notes [16], “the following can be noted as arguments in favor of reindustrialization in the USA. First, manufacturing creates the effects of the spread of new knowledge throughout the rest of the economy. New knowledge and technologies, managerial forms used in the production of new products, will inevitably spread to other business projects. Secondly, a decrease in the market share in knowledge-based industries harms the entire economy. So, if a country loses an aerospace industry, then the entire innovation ecosystem is degrading, which makes it difficult to develop new enterprises and generate new technologies. If technological opportunities are lost in one industry, then it is almost impossible to revive it. This hinders the growth of other industries, which weakens overall competitiveness. Thirdly, if production goes abroad, then

Gumar Batov, Lyudmila Khutova, Larisa Makoeva, Aza Gusalova, Margarita Bolatova

innovations usually follow the same lines, weakening the country's international competitiveness” [16].

3.7 LESSION LEARN We analyzed the process of reindustrialization takes place in European countries. This procedure in these countries occurs a little differently than in the USA. Yes, in some countries, in particular in the UK, re-scoring is observed, but not in such a harsh form as in the USA. In the EU, more attention is paid to the innovative re-equipment of existing industries, with their modernization and technologicalization. Europe, in the process of re-industrializing the economy, has relied on the high-tech industry. This is due to the competitiveness of the final product. Given the high cost of labor in Europe, high social standards, and the lack of cheap energy, defeat competitors can only be based on the production of unique products. European Commission emphasizes, the focus should be on the development of high-tech industry sectors - the IT industry, telecommunications, optical devices, aircraft, space technology, the production of new materials, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment” [15]. In Russia, as well as in other countries, we are engaged in the issues of reindustrialization, but unfortunately not on such a scale and not as intensively as the situation the country is in.

3.8 REINDUSTRIALIZATION FRAMEWORK The reasons that cause the need for reindustrialization for different countries are different. While the United States and the EU are addressing this issue to establish industrial production in their countries, for Russia we think that question is to re-create a new industry, manufacturing, especially machine building and machine tool building. It is necessary to recreate technological complexes that existed before the reforms or to create new technological chains that encompass neighboring states and friendly countries and are competitive. In Russia, the issue of reindustrialization should be resolved in the framework of updating the economic system, choosing a new model and strategy for economic development. However, we share the point of view according to which reindustrialization should be based on new, most modern technologies. One can agree with [17] that “it is also appropriate to recall that industrial production is a priority basis for the modernization of the national economy, without which it is doomed to constant dependence on market phenomena. On the other hand, if a country does not have its developed industrial sector, then there will be no innovation since the manufacturing industry is the most advanced innovative technological segment of the national economic system. Besides, the heavy industry allows you to create new jobs, not only in most industrial enterprises but in related industries, in other areas of the economy” [17]. We think that the transition of Russia to the tracks of reindustrialization is associated with the solution of three problems: firstly, it is necessary to restore the level of industrial production that the country had before the reforms; secondly, it is necessary to create a technological base, which will be a supplier of machinery and equipment, with which you can create highly technological sectors; thirdly, to develop high-tech industries. *Corresponding author (G.Batov). Tel: +7-989-99-7555-7. Email: gumarbatov@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction

4. CONCLUSION For successful re-industrialization in the country, cardinal changes in investment behavior, technological solutions, and organizational models are needed that will improve the efficiency of the entire process of updating industrial production. Only with an integrated approach can a sustainable technological modernization be achieved. In whatever situation the economy and the material sphere as a whole are, the strategic direction can only be the policy of reindustrialization and solution of three problems: firstly, it is necessary to restore the level of industrial production that the country had before the reforms; secondly, it is necessary to create a technological base, which will be a supplier of machinery and equipment, with which you can create highly technological sectors; thirdly, to develop high-tech industries.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The study was carried out with financial support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No. 19-010-00287 A â€œDevelopment of a mechanism for the accelerated development of a problematic macro-regionâ€?.

7. REFERENCES [1] Bodrunov S.D. (2015). Formation of the strategy of reindustrialization of Russia. Monograph. 2nd Ed., Part one. SPb. INIR. 551. [2] Greenberg R.S., Bodrunov S.D. (2013). Re-industrialization of the Russian economy: imperatives, potential, risks. Moscow, Saint Petersburg. 59. [3] Gubanov S.S. (2012). Sovereign breakthrough. Neo-industrialization of Russia and vertical integration. M. Book world. 223. [4] Lenchuk E.B. (2016) New industrial policy in the context of ensuring technological independence. St. Petersburg: Aletheia. 336. [5] Komkov N.I. (2017). Scientific and technological development: limitations and opportunities. Problems of forecasting. 5(164):11-21. [6] Romanova O.A. (2014). Strategic vector of economic dynamics of the industrial region. Economy of the region. 1:43-56. [7] Sukharev O.S. (2013). The economic policy of the reindustrialization of Russia: opportunities and limitations. National interests: priorities and security. 24(213):2-24. [8] Rifkin J. (2017) The Third Industrial Revolution. How horizontal interactions change energy, the economy and the world as a whole: Per. from English V. Ionova. M. Alpina non-fiction, 410. [9] Schwab K., Davis N. (2018) Technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Per. from English - M: Eksmo, 320. [10] Perez K. (2011). Technological revolution and financial capital. The dynamics of bubbles and periods of prosperity: Per. from English F.V. Mayevsky; Scientific ed. trans. S.Yu. Glazyev, V.E. Dementiev. M. Delo, 231. [11] Freeman C. (1995). The National System of Innovation in Historical Perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics. 19:5-24. [12] Rainert E.S. (2011) How rich countries became rich and why poor countries remain poor: Per. from English N. Autonomova; under the editorship of V. Avtonomova; Gos. un-t Higher School of Economics. M. Publishing. house of state. University Higher School of Economics, 384.

Gumar Batov, Lyudmila Khutova, Larisa Makoeva, Aza Gusalova, Margarita Bolatova

[13] Prokhorov A.M. (1969). The Great Soviet Encyclopedia. 3rd Ed., Moscow: Sov. Encyclopedia, 30:631. [14] Maltsev A.A., Mercier-Suissa K., Mordvinova A. (2017) To the interpretation of the concept of “reindustrialization” in the context of globalization. Regional Economy. 13(4):1044-1054. [15] Tarash L.I., Golodnyuk R.A. (2017). Reindustrialization of the economy as a direction of industrial development. Bulletin of the Institute of Economic Research. 4(8): 23-33. [16] Zakharov A.N. (2018). Prospects for the reindustrialization of developed economies (USA, Canada and Australia). Vestnik MGIMO-University. 1(58): 213-245.

[17] Volkova G., Ziyadullaev N. (2017). New industrialization as an innovative driver of modernization of the economy. Economist, 6:41-48. Professor Dr.Gumar Batov is Professor and a Leading Researcher at Institute of Informatics and Problems regional management. He holds a Doctor of Economics.

Dr.Lyudmila Khutova is an Associate Professor at North Caucasus State Academy. Research interests: regional economy; finance. She holds a PhD in Economics.

Dr.Larisa Makoeva is an Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory and applied economics, Gorskiy State Agrarian University. She got a PhD in Economics. Scientific and professional interests are "Justification of priority areas for the effectiveness of intensification of agricultural production".

Dr.Aza Gusalova is an Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory and applied economics, Gorskiy State Agrarian University. She holds a PhD in Economics. Her scientific and professional interests are the effectiveness of government regulation in the agricultural sector of Russia.

Margarita Bolatova, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory and applied economics, Gorskiy State Agrarian University. She holds a PhD in Economics. Her scientific and professional interests is Prospects for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.

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PAPER ID: 11A11N

IMPACTS OF DAYLIGHT ON IMPROVING HEALING QUALITY IN PATIENT ROOMS: CASE OF SHORSH HOSPITAL IN SULAIMANI CITY Husein Ali Husein 1, Sazgar Samir Salim 1 1

Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, Salahaddin University, Erbil, IRAQ.

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Article history: Received 16 March 2020 Received in revised form 29 April 2020 Accepted 15 May 2020 Available online 25 May 2020

Nature provides important design solutions whether in architecture or other sciences and arts. Biophilia is an innate human desire to be connected to nature and biophilic architecture is bringing nature to indoor environments. The positive effects of biophilia are especially interesting in healthcare facilities due to extreme stress elements in those spaces. The architecture of hospitals can affect the health and well-being of patients and staff. Therefore, the main purpose of the present research is to understand the relationship between a patient’s health and their physical environment, which specifically addresses using natural light as a biophilic technique in the patients’ rooms. Most patients’ restrooms were built without windows and depend on artificial lighting. This paper, impacts of daylight is investigated through a detailed questionnaire which handed to 155 patients of Shorsh Hospital randomly of both gender aged between (18-40 years old), they were asked to indicate their opinions about lighting conditions in their rooms and its impacts on their health and recovery. According to the findings, using the biophilic technique (natural light) specifically inside hospital rooms support physical and psychological wellbeing and accelerates the healing of the patient. Therefore, architects and designers should try to bring daylight into hospitals to upgrade the qualities of these environments skillfully.

Keywords: Biophilic architecture; Artificial lighting; Sustainable hospital; Patient survey; Daylighting; Natural light; Human health; Hospital positive feeling; Accelerated healing.

1. INTRODUCTION As indoor environments are affected by several elements, humans being directly affected by indoor environments. Well-designed indoor environments make people feel comfortable and more active. The elements start from the structure and form of the building, and complete with color, light, furnishings, and other details. One of the most important elements that affect indoor environments is light. Architects can develop their designs for interior environments by understanding the importance *Corresponding author (Husein Ali Husein). Tel:+9647504703157 Email: husein.ali@su.edu.krd

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.218

of light (Dalke et al., 2006). In these days, biophilic design is being regarded as a harmonious approach for dealing with workplace stress, student performance, patient healing, and other familiar challenges to health and overall well-being, The high standard biophilic design is a design that powerfully reduces stress and anxiety inside the build environments and improves the physical health of the users â€“ can be attained by providing a useful connection with nature, without requiring trendy industry alliances of architecture. As the practice of biophilic design needs applying different design strategies, Kellert & Calabrese (2015) introduce a guide or framework of biophilic design strategies and classified nature experiences into three categories that include 24 biophilic attributes. One of the biophilic patterns applying in buildings is daylight. Light is a part of the electromagnetic spectrum that is in contact with retinal receptor cells. Human eyes receive and transmit them to the brain. Receiving range based on the characteristics of the environment (Jiang et al., 2017). Having light as an integral part of the universe of creation, we cannot imagine life on earth without lighting. A human being is Bioclimatic Creatures, has a strong dependence on the light. Any disruption in receiving desirable illumination can cause different consequences for humans. Lighting is always an inseparable part of the human environment; around 80-85% of our communications with the outside world are performed by visual senses (Almusaed & Almssad, 2006). Lighting quality in an environment requires the integration of three important factors, including human needs, factors related to architecture, and economic-environmental considerations. Human needs mainly include the ability and ease of vision, the ability to communicate with the environment, aesthetics, health, and comfort. Providing appropriate quantity and quality, light for a deep perception is an environmental factor. Ming et al. (2011) shown that the improvement in brightness intensity has increased 5% of human performances in their environments, which can be attributed to improved visual acuity, biological effects of brightness, and psychological effects. Human activities affected by the intensity, type of source, color, direction, and method of light distribution in different environments by affecting his behaviors, morale, efficiency, and effectiveness. Among these, the role of natural light as the most complete and most desirable light is undeniable. Patients are among those who normally spend more than one hour in a closed environment without having the opportunity to enjoy natural light. The darker the hospital, the more staying time of patients, which leads to depression and anxiety. And most of the healthcare spaces depend on artificial light which causes serious damage to the eye retina. In this case, our eyes protect themselves with the continuous blinking mechanism. Dalke et al. (2006) shown that the lamps and other artificial light are more tedious than normal light. Incomplete or undesirable lighting, in addition to the effects of the lens on the visual system, can include effects on the mental, neuropsychological, and physiological effects of the patients. Too much exposure to artificial lights has many harmful effects include eye fatigue, headache, visual impairment, and an increase in accidents due to lack of light or glare and sight (Knez, 1995). Therefore, in terms of meeting patient health, safety, and ergonomics needs, hospitals require achieving all the components of optimal daylighting

Husein Ali Husein, Sazgar Samir Salim

This study examines the impacts of daylight in improving the health of patients in hospitals. Exposure to light during the hours of the day has a significant impact on the physical and mental health of individuals. Increasing efficiency, reducing harmful accidents, increased mental capacity, increased satisfaction, and more pleasures are Advantages of using natural lighting in the patient rooms. Daylight, in addition to preventing patientâ€™s tiredness, improves their morale and satisfaction. The installation of windows that are sufficiently luminous can make the healing environment pleasant and comfortable and add to the health and wellbeing of people. Also, desirable illumination can improve satisfaction, comfort, alertness, mood, and quality of working in workplaces.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 BIOPHILIC ARCHITECTURE In architecture, biophilia refers to a concept that imitates the conditions of a natural environment. Almusaed (2011) said it is the integration of nature within urban spaces to make buildings alive, It aims to re-establish the link between the individual and nature in our daily living and working spaces. Biophilic design is the answer to the human need to be connected to nature and aims to reestablish this link in the built environment. In other words, biophilic design is the theory, science and practice aimed at creating buildings inspired by nature and maintaining a connection to nature in the environments in which we live and work every day (Kellert & Calabrese, 2015). Daylighting is one of the most important patterns of biophilic architecture.

2.2 SPECTRAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DAYLIGHT The light is part of electromagnetic waves, which is received in contact with human retina receptor cells, then the signal is transmitted to the brain. Physiologically, for a healthy person, light waves are within the range of 400-700 nm in the color spectrum. Daylight is a form of energy radiation from the sun. It is an important part of our daily lives that vary according to where we are, the time of day and the season. This light ray will be reflected or absorbed by an object and surface that it will reach. (Knez, 1995). In the old days, people often use sunlight and spend themselves outdoors but nowadays humans spend most of their time in an indoor environment that filled with artificial light. Daylight was the main source of lighting for a building until 1940 when artificial light was discovered (Yin et al., 2018). However, despite its significant improvements, an increase in electric power consumption, health, and environmental danger, is a result of reviving the use of natural light as the main source of indoor lighting. Daylight is a renewable natural resource that its contribution does not require any technological transformation.

2.3 DAYLIGHT, HUMAN BODY, AND HEALTH Since the eye remains the main gateway to the waves of the light spectrum, the daylight is as vital as air and water for human beings. our brain has a biological clock, which needs daylight to adjust itself. A lack of natural light has dangerous consequences. In the morning, light appears mostly in green-blue tones, while it is rather reddish in the afternoon. Brains are perfectly regulated on this natural cycle. When the eyes register a blue-green light, the brain "knows" that it is morning (Locke & Latham, 1990). *Corresponding author (Husein Ali Husein). Tel:+9647504703157 Email: husein.ali@su.edu.krd

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.218

The use of daylight in indoor environments improves the health of occupants. "People who are more exposed to natural light are physically more active, their sleep quality and quantity are much better also have a higher quality of life than others," (Shishegar & Boubekri, 2016). They also indicated that exposure to light, especially during the day and in the morning, will have a positive effect on the health of people as a result of their impacts on mood, metabolism and level of consciousness. Another important benefit of daylighting is reducing CO2 level which causes many health issues, artificial light in workplaces increasing CO2 by consuming energy. Other studies report indoor energy consumption of 30% is attributed to consumption for artificial lighting (Parise & Martirano, 2013). The use of natural light represents a substantial saving in consumption that leads to a significant decrease in CO2. Optimum use of daylight in buildings also contributes to the more rational use of heating and air-conditioning systems that consume energy and acoustically distracting. Daylight can also help to improve the posture of the body (the position of the body) and prevent light-related skeletal disorders. Light can push or delay the biological rhythm by altering the balance of the body's hormones. This agent can affect the sleepiness or alertness of individuals. The quantity and quality of lighting influence the mental health and performance of individuals. Therefore, allowing entering sunlight to indoors is essential for providing better health physically and psychologically (Shishegar & Boubekri, 2016). Table 1 demonstrates the multiple benefits of having natural light in the buildings. Table 1: Natural light benefits for human health (Shishegar & Boubekri, 2016). Physically Improve Vitamin D Visual System Circadian Rhythms Sleep Quality

Decrease Cancer Possibility Abnormal Bone Formation

Psychologically Improve Decrease Mood Depression Mental Performance Stress Alertness Sadness Brain activity Violent behavior

2.4 DAYLIGHT IN HOSPITAL Healthcare centers are built aims to treat patients and improving human well-being. The interior design of the therapeutic space is an integral part of the design quality of the environment. Research shows that Therapeutic environments need high flexibility, security, intimacy, and relaxation as these spaces that lead to anxiety and panic in users, Lack of attention to physical design and interior design in therapeutic areas causes users dissatisfaction (Ryan et al., 2014). Figures 1, it is important to provide factors that needed for healthy hospital environments. Hospital lighting is an essential environmental factor in providing users with the right healing conditions (Kellert & Calabrese, 2015). It is essential to have the optimum amount of light in the design of therapeutic settings to identify important areas such as reception and nursing stations. Make it easier and faster to find paths, reduce workforce, stress and confusion, and waste of time. The amount of light, whether natural or artificial, is represented by the level of illumination; (KrasiÄ‡ et al., 2013). The luminance is expressed in lux. When the sky is cloudy, an intensity of about 1000 lux is measured outside. The light intensity measured on a sunny day exceeds 10,000 lux.

Husein Ali Husein, Sazgar Samir Salim

Far below the levels of illumination necessary to accomplish quality-healing environments, the optimum amount of light you need depends on the type of activity you do. Besides the amount, the placement of windows in hospital rooms should be considered according to sun orientation to avoid direct exposure that leads to depression and eye pressure (Urlich et al., 2004).

(a): Most modern Healthcare spaces Controlled (b): Healthcare spaces with view to nature and by technology lead to Stress and anxiety. daylight provide more healing quality. Figure 1: Comparison of healthcare with architectural environment design (after Kellert & Calabrese (2015)).

2.5 IMPACT OF DAYLIGHT ON PATIENT'S HEALTH AND RECOVERY The benefits of daylight in health centers include brightness, reduced heating costs, as well as better physical and mental health for staff and its patients. The patient wants a quality environment, he needs to be under the supervision of the medical staff and able to see them. In terms of access, clear signs, visual clues, and navigation make it vital for visitors and patients to enter the hospital for the first time because they are anxious and distracted. Patients want access to the world outside the hospital. It has many effects on the human body and psyche and mental and physical health. It will also have a decisive role in improving the disease (Hauge, 2015). Aripin (2007) demonstrated the positive outcome of natural lighting on patientsâ€™ health and recovery process in addition to its benefits on hospital staff and the environment of the hospitals. Aripin (2007) focused on physical aspects that affect daylighting designs of wards, including building orientation which is an important criterion to create sustainable healing environments, window design which physically psychologically and mentally affect patient and hospital staff, Access to view which accelerate the process of recovery from the illness which psychologically aids the patients. Visual comfort should satisfying patients to achieve sustainable hospitals, artificial lighting, natural light design with the help of artificial lighting should be pursuing to provide a comfortable environment for patients, color is another physical aspect that should be considered to sustain hospitals that affect the patient's perception the environment. McSweeney et al. (2019) investigate the impact of indoor exposure to sunlight on psychological stress makers in hospitals, under two conditions, one with sufficient natural light and another with *Corresponding author (Husein Ali Husein). Tel:+9647504703157 Email: husein.ali@su.edu.krd

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.218

covered windows. Change in physiological stress measured through heart rate variability HRV and a survey of how participants feel their exposure to natural light. The results concluded that indoor natural exposure can provide relief from stress resulting from the parasympathetic activity. Totaforti (2018) focused on the impacts of windows in designing hospitals. The study showed the evidence that views of natural landscapes reduce post-operation hospital stay by 8%, Serotonin hormone can be boosted by daylights which lower the pain perception by 22%. The study concluded that too much exposure to artificial light in a patient room cause psychological and physical problems, like headaches, eye pressure, fatigue, depression. Proper lighting in the hospital environment improves the body's biological cycle, transparency and visual clarity in the environment, reducing occupational errors, reducing hospital stay, and reducing pain. Reducing the feeling of depression, increasing the positive feeling in the hospital environment (Ming et al., 2011).

3. METHODOLOGY To understand the impact of lighting on human health and wellbeing in hospitals in the term of recovery of patients during their hospital staying time, a survey is used as a method for data collection. Participants were day-patients from different rooms of Shorsh Hospital in Sulaiman. Patients’ staying time was from 08:00 am to 5:00 pm. Participant’s ages were between 18-40 years with the mean age 30 years old. Participants were told that the study is about the impact of daylighting in their rooms on healing and recovery. Out of 155 questionnaires that were randomly distributed, 120 were returned (48 female and 72 male). The questionnaire includes questions regarding their restrooms lighting conditions, duration of current light level exposure, and impact of that condition on their health, recovery, and psychological health throughout the day. A qualitative approach was used to demonstrate the significant relationship between the patient’s perception and lighting design used inside hospital spaces. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software program was used to analyze data. Participant's Gender Male

Female

40%

Lighting conditions Comfortable

Neutral

43.6%

60%

Figure 2: Participants gender

Not Comfortable 23% 33.3%

Figure 3: Hospital lighting conditions

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION According to a questionnaire question (How is the lighting condition in your room), illustrated in Figure 2 that most of the patients were not satisfying with the indoor lighting condition out of 120 participants, 52 thought that it’s not comfortable and 40 patients rated neutral, only 28 (23%) were comfortable with it. So the lighting conditions in that hospital need improvements due to the survey answers. Most respondents do not feel comfortable with the hospital lightings, Figure 3.

Husein Ali Husein, Sazgar Samir Salim

One of the questionnaire questions is for investigating types of lighting that mainly used for illuminating patient’s rooms. According to the answers, we found that rooms in Shorsh Hospital do not depend on natural daylighting. Only 21% rated that the main source of indoor illumination is daylight, 47% stated that their rooms use artificial light. And some rooms depend on both natural and artificial light, (Figure 3). The amount of patient’s exposure to sunlight during their recovery time was recorded, while many researchers concluded that daily exposure is necessary for human being both physically and mentally, but the most patients in Shorsh hospital as we see in Figure 4 have lack of sunlight exposure, as 72% of respondents said never expose to sunlight daily. Only 6% of them have a chance to always expose to the sun. this finding is quite aligned with the finding of Raanaas et al. (2012) which they investigate the lighting condition on ‘lung’ and ‘heart’ patients at the rehabilitation center. your level of exposure to sunlight at work? Always

Sometimes

Never

Your level of exposure to sunlight Always

Sometimes

Never

6% 22%

22 %

72%

Figure 4: Main source of lighting.

Figure 5: Amount of patient’s sunlight exposure

The sunlight entering indoor environments through the window opening, the most important factor to let maximum natural light enter and spread its benefits is window designs (Krasić et al., 2013). Another question was “do you think that there is enough window to allow sufficient natural light to enter your room?” 48% said “No” while 15% doesn’t have enough windows (Figure 6). is there enough window to allow sufficient natural light to enter your room? Yess

don’t know

48%

37%

Beds are arranged according to window designs and daylights? Disagree

Neutral

Agree

23% 8%

69%

15%

Figure 6: Does your room have enough windows?

Figure 7: Arrangements according to sunlight

Beside maximizing the windows and adding skylights, Ming et al. (2011) demonstrated to make full use of daylight inside healing areas by arranging furniture according to the sunlight, as surgical and medical process requiring more accuracy and light near windows. In this survey (Figure 7). most participants 69% of the respondents were disagree that furniture in their recovery rooms arranged according to sunlight. It indicates that the design conditions according to natural lighting are poor in this hospital in Sulaimani city and need improvement in terms of using daylights. *Corresponding author (Husein Ali Husein). Tel:+9647504703157 Email: husein.ali@su.edu.krd

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.218

The questionnaire intends to investigate whether there is a correlation between patients health and recovery with their lighting conditions, there is a strong correlation between exposing to natural lighting and increasing healing process in hospitals, as in the 2nd questions most of them were not comfortable with their lighting condition and according to 47% of them the main source of lighting were artificial lighting. here in the question about their wellbeing (Figure 8) 51% associated poor healing environments to the poor lighting conditions and lack of daylights, while 37% of the respondent wont distracted by the lighting conditions and believed that natural lighting don’t increase their satisfactions in their bedrooms. So majority of the respondents supported the idea that natural light affect hospital spaces positively and 71% of them recommended to have more natural light inside their rooms, while 18% of those participant that do not associate lighting with their healing process did not recommend increasing natural light (Figure 9). Your existing lighting conditions decrease your comfort in the healing environments ? Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Do you recommend to increase natural light into your room? No

Neutral

Yes

18% 37%

10%

51% 12%

Figure 8: Effects of lighting on patient’s performances

71%

Figure 9: Patient’s preferences for natural light

The results of this questionnaire indicate a relationship between the patient room’s daylight and healing quality. Patients in rooms with enough Windows not only had more light exposure but also increase their comforts and satisfactions to the hospital environments. After analyzing the survey we can conclude that lighting conditions in most of the rooms of Shorsh Hospital are poor as %43 of the patients were not comfortable with it. Figure 8, 51% believed that their existing lighting conditions decrease their healing perception. So the hospital needs lighting design improvement. Building design should be so that more sunlight allowed entering the buildings of healthcare as it affects patients' perception in the healing environments and improves the space quality, as the goal of all healthcare facilities is to increase patients' health and recovery from illness. Many techniques can be done to maximize natural light, one of them is expanding windows and arranging restroom beds so that patients get enough light, but none of them achieved in these hospital rooms. Besides increasing sunlight amount window in hospitals let outdoor views and other roles that were not taken into account in this paper .views have psychological effects for humans while daylight has physiological benefits. Future investigations s may be able to uncover the various benefits of views of windows.

4. CONCLUSION This study investigated and analyzed the roles of daylight on increasing healing quality and patient’s satisfaction in healthcare spaces. Biophilic design, use of natural elements/resources in an indoor environments. Use of natural light and avoid immersing interiors in artificial light is an

Husein Ali Husein, Sazgar Samir Salim

important pattern of biophilic design. The result of this study show that architects and designers should be concerned with the effects of natural factors on the design of healing spaces to provide comfortable hospital environment for patients and accelerate healing. Proper design of the daylight system besides contribution to minimizing environmental impacts, also promotion the creation of a healthy and comfortable environment for the occupants. Too much exposure to artificial light in the patient room cause psychological and physical problems, like headaches, eye pressure, fatigue, depression .while, Sunshine is the healthiest, cheapest light source and one of the most important sources of light energy supply. Using natural light in the patient room avoids disappointment and frustration. It is also an effective approach to create comfort and increase self-confidence throughout the day. It also provides better mental satisfaction and comfort. Daylight directly improves the health and productivity of individuals.it is said to be the source of mobility and motivation. Those who stay in a natural light environment will significantly improve their health, happiness, and comfort which are the results of faster patient recovery. Therefore providing daylight to the patient’s room should be considered as a priority in the architecture and design of the healing spaces. More researches are required to investigate building techniques that optimizing the benefits of natural light in buildings.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6. REFERENCES Almusaed, A. (2011). Green Walls Biophilic and Bioclimatic Architecture (pp. 205-216): Springer. Almusaed, A., & Almssad, A. (2006). Biophilic architecture: The concept of healthy sustainable architecture. Paper presented at the PLEA2006-The 23rd Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture, Geneva, Switzerland, 6-8 September 2006. Aripin, S. (2007). Healing Architecture: Daylight in hospital design. Paper presented at the Conference on Sustainable Building South East Asia. Dalke, H., Little, J., Niemann, E., Camgoz, N., Steadman, G., Hill, S., & Stott, L. (2006). Colour and lighting in hospital design. Optics & Laser Technology, 38(4-6), 343-365. Hauge, B. (2015). Designing with daylight; the relationship between daylight and health. Paper presented at the DS 80-9 Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED 15) Vol 9: User-Centred Design, Design of Socio-Technical systems, Milan, Italy, 27-30.07. 15. Jiang, S., Powers, M., Allison, D., & Vincent, E. (2017). Informing healthcare waiting area design using transparency attributes: A comparative preference study. HERD: Health Environments Research & Design Journal, 10(4), 49-63. Kellert, S., & Calabrese, E. (2015). The practice of biophilic design. London: Terrapin Bright LLC. Kellert, S., & Calabrese, E. (2015). The practice of biophilic design. Retrieved from www. biophilic-design. com website. Knez, I. (1995). Effects of indoor lighting on mood and cognition. Journal of environmental psychology, 15(1), 39-51. Krasić, S., Pejić, P., & Mitković, P. (2013). Significance of daylight in the design and construction of buildings. Građevinar, 65(09.), 833-840. *Corresponding author (Husein Ali Husein). Tel:+9647504703157 Email: husein.ali@su.edu.krd

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.218

Locke, E. A., & Latham, G. P. (1990). Work motivation and satisfaction: Light at the end of the tunnel. Psychological science, 1(4), 240-246. McSweeney, J., Johnson, S., Sherry, S., Singleton, J., & Rainham, D. (2019). Indoor nature exposure and influence on physiological stress markers. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 1-15. Ming, F., Jing, M., & Zhikui, C. (2011). The architectural design of natural light in hospital buildings. Paper presented at the 2011 International Conference on Electric Technology and Civil Engineering (ICETCE). Parise, G., & Martirano, L. (2013). Daylight impact on energy performance of internal lighting. IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications, 49(1), 242-249. Raanaas, R. K., Patil, G. G., & Hartig, T. (2012). Health benefits of a view of nature through the window: a quasi-experimental study of patients in a residential rehabilitation center. Clinical rehabilitation, 26(1), 21-32. Richards, A. (2001). Alien vision: exploring the electromagnetic spectrum with imaging technology (Vol. 9): SPIE press Bellingham and Washington, DC. Ryan, C. O., Browning, W. D., Clancy, J. O., Andrews, S. L., & Kallianpurkar, N. B. (2014). Biophilic design patterns: emerging nature-based parameters for health and well-being in the built environment. International Journal of Architectural Research: ArchNet-IJAR, 8(2), 62-76. Shishegar, N., & Boubekri, M. (2016). Natural light and productivity: Analyzing the impacts of daylighting on students’ and workers’ health and alertness. Proceedings of the International Conference on “Health, Biological and Life Science”(HBLS-16), Istanbul, Turkey. Totaforti, S. (2018). Applying the benefits of biophilic theory to hospital design. City, Territory and Architecture, 5(1), 1. Urlich, R., Zimring, C., Quan, X., Joseph, A., & Choudhary, R. (2004). The role of the physical environment in the hospital of the 21st century. The Center for Health Design. Yin, J., Zhu, S., MacNaughton, P., Allen, J. G., & Spengler, J. D. (2018). Physiological and cognitive performance of exposure to biophilic indoor environment. Building and Environment, 132, 255-262. Dr. Husein Ali Husein is an Assistant Professor of Architectural Engineering and competence of Architectural Technology, Department of Architecture, Salahaddin University –Erbil. He gained a B.Sc. degree in Architectural Engineering from the University of Technology- Baghdad, an M.Sc. degree in Architectural Engineering and Public Building Design from TU-Berlin, and a Ph.D. degree in Architectural Technology from the University of Sulaimania. Sazgar Samir Salim is an MSc student in Interior Architecture at TIU. She received a B.Sc. degree (architecture engineering) from Koya University. She is an official architect in Final Design Engineering Bureau.

Husein Ali Husein, Sazgar Samir Salim

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11O

SOCIAL OR TRADITIONAL WOM: AN INVESTIGATION OF SUCCESSFUL BRAND EXTENSION RECOMMENDATION METHOD FOR PURCHASE DECISIONS Yasser Ali Baeshen 1

Department of Marketing, Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, KINGDOM of SAUDI ARABIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 04 March 2020 Received in revised form 11 May 2020 Accepted 19 May 2020 Available online 26 May 2020

This study is based on a survey conducted among 200 individuals whose opinions regarding social media word of mouth (SWOM) and word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing techniques were analyzed. It has been concluded that customers rely more on social media WOM to make purchase decisions as compared to traditional WOM. Therefore, Keywords: marketing effort for brand extension success should be made on Social Brand extension strategy; Brand extension success; networks. These results came through a survey methodology where the response of 200 participants was analyzed through t-test statistical Social media Word of analysis using SPSS software. In this developing era of business and Mouth (SWOM); technology, the way businesses promote and sell their products and Consumer attention; services has drastically experienced a shift that is triggered by the shift Digital marketing; Word-of-Mouth; in customer’s reliance on internet for gaining information. SWOM has Consumer purchase replaced word-of-mouth promotion and has been attracting more of decision. consumer attention thus helping both businesses and their customers to make more satisfying choices. Disciplinary: Management and Economic Science (Digital Business & Marketing), Information Technology. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Consumers lack trust on retailer advertisements (Makki & Chang, 2015), Survival of brands has become difficult due to increasing competition, technology and online buying behaviour (Soomro, 2019). A large number of Small medium enterprises shut down and large multinational managed to survive with issue that how to grow and diversify the business portfolio ahead and they have to learn to survive (Strauss, 2012). The worlds as we see it today has become much saturated and compact. Managers of companies are continuously trying to introduce new products to grow their portfolio and reduce risk. One of the strategies that managers prefer in their practices is the brand extension strategy. *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.219

Brand extension is a term using an already established brand name to introduce a new product in to a market thus facilitating new-product acceptance and providing positive feedback to the parent brand and company (Keller & Aaker, 1992). As of today, the marketing communication trend has changed drastically by User-generated content (UGC) (Liu et al., 2017). Now many people interact on social networking cites and even real life interactions, influence of one user is very substantial over other users and this interaction determines the buying behavior of consumers in many cases. Consumers have tendency to trust the people in their social circle and connections such as friends, family and relatives, office colleagues as compared to what company reveal in the advertisement campaigns (Keller & Fay, 2012). Maybe this is the motivation behind greater usage and research carried on social media, turning out to be definitely more main-stream than TV ads or shimmering magazine promotions. Individuals accept that through the assessment of others they can get to know the genuine feedback for the product or services (Cakim, 2010). As social media usage grows rapidly, there are changes that have been created to traditional modes of marketing and brand endorsement, as influencers and the medium the influencers choose to communicate through have changed. Social media has changed the way WOM methods of recommendations work, where social media is increasingly being used by numerous companies globally to attract new customers and retain old ones. There has been a shift in marketing media, where the focus has changed and SWOM now is additional tool that businesses can utilize as compared to other conventional methods for WOM like publicity, etc. Social word of mouth gives an informative online platform to its customers with an important characteristic that it can accompany not only to an individual customer but also a group of people at once. A large number of people can have an access at the same time on same online review. A research showed that small businesses rated social media (48%) and word of mouth (45%) as Top ten tools utilized for marketing. (Holland, 2016) It has been estimated by the few internet projections that nearly 73 per cent of all adults using the internet use social networking sites and with smart Phones proliferations it has become part of human life. This growing popularity of social networking sites has changed the way marketers pursue their customers, and has given rise to a paradigm shift in the field of marketing (Al-Deen, Hana, & Hendricks, 2011). As per the survey (BrightLocal, 2016) that revealed that 91 percent of buyers read online reviews before purchasing from a local business, also 84 percent of consumers showed trust on online reviews. A better volume of WOM would add to consumer responsiveness a new launches in the market and thereby add to the productâ€™s sales and enhance customer confidence. This argument is confirmed by most studies that relate to the relationship among the valence of WOM amid the volume of WOM. While the valence of WOM is tall, according to the hope disconfirmation theory, some customers would easily feel displeased. These displeased consumers would have greater motivation to spread negative WOM to reduce their worry or dissonance. Some consumers are eager to spread positive WOM out of basic courtesy and self-enhancement. This study investigates the impacts of volume of word of mouth (WOM) and social word of mouth (SWOM) on how it affects consumer preference towards the extended brand of existing company.

Yasser Ali Baeshen

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 BRAND EXTENSION Many companies especially renowned MNC’s develop new products with various product categories to increase their market share (Soomro & Issani, 2017). Brand extension strategy is when a former name of brand is utilized for entering on the road to modified or /class some other product (Aaker, 1990). Brand extension is explained to as a strategy where brand leverages an established brand name to support new product in the market to avoid failure (Soomro et al., 2016). The buyers as well respond quickly to the new offered product as they can relate with the performance and are familiarized with parent brand, In addition, positive feelings and evaluation of parent brand can be transferred to new launch. This brand extension strategy is very well known and common practice that can be adopted to expand market globally for multinational companies (Estes et al., 2012). In brand extension, the companies bring improvement, innovation and new variants for fresh goods. The benefits of product extension are that it can increase promotional efficiency, the customer risk of purchasing product is reduced, easiness in distribution channel because of parent brand (Keller, 2003).

2.2 WORD OF MOUTH (WOM): Word of mouth is conceptually a two-way oral or face-to-face communication between two or more people. Generally, one person acts as a recipient (i.e. receiver) and other, a communicator (i.e. sender) (Rezvani et al., 2012). They exchange informal information and their experiences regarding any particular product or services in a way in which recipient perceives communicator as a non-commercial entity without any limitation (barrier) to advancement in technology (Hoye and Lievens, 2009). On the basis of communicator’s remarks or experiences, the recipient chooses to build decisions. Trustworthiness is the most significant source that causes customers to purchase a product and build a durable association with company (Ghorban & Tahernejad, 2012). Word of mouth valence has gained more consideration in current analysis regarding WOM, and there is confirmation that positive and negative word of mouth are mainly general types of WOM. Word of mouth has a growing influencing power, directly impacts the behavior of the customers about their buying decisions. Positive (Valence) as word of mouth engages a customer’s preference for particular brand and negative (Valence) as word of mouth disengages a customer’s preference for a particular brand. WOM conversation arises through personal and non-personal sources of references. Companions, relatives and associates can be referred to as personal source of references, a well known tool for WOM conversation. Amongst non-personal sources of references are included journals, published literature and analysis by researchers, reporters, customers and their proficient systems found in magazines, weekly reviews, social media blogs, chat forums etc. The research even indicates that there is no doubt in the fact that customers who are dissatisfied get attracted with the process of word of mouth than those customers who are satisfied. Anderson (1998) indicates that almost 20 to 50 percent of all purchasing decisions are done with the help of word of mouth which is therefore a primary factor. Sundaram and Webster (1999) found that the negative WOM have a *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.219

damaging effect on bran evaluation of unfamiliar. Whereas, positive WOM done by consumers benefit both known and unknown brands. As brand extension is a strategy to associate new product with strong existing brand name, now will the WOM have significant effect on purchase decision of brand extension? To test, following hypothesis is developed: H1: Product recommendation via traditional Word-of-Mouth promotion is significantly related to consumer purchase decision of product extended.

2.3 SOCIAL WORD OF MOUTH (SWOM): According to Keller and Fay (2012), the social network is trendy and has innovative qualities. Due to advancement of technology and growing influence of social media, traditional boundaries of word of mouth have expanded now; it has become so easy to exchange information not only amongst companions but also with the whole world. SWOM also has the capacity of dealing with more than one person at a time and this is the actual power of SWOM (Almana & Mirza, 2013). Social word of mouth (SWOM) on consumer purchasing decisions has vastly expanded its latent impact on the considerable growth in online social networks. Internet has gained popularity therefore word of mouth has grown from linear traditional use to network and emanative or logical. Immediate communication devices have become effective media to exchange information online. A book on how to craft word-of-mouth strategies and attract customers states that internet browsers have reconsidered their privacy and information collection approaches as they try to gather more data out of their client's profiles and the search history. Likewise, Facebook has chosen to sell sponsored ad section on its timeline that will be controlled by the Facebook users (Cakim, 2010). Currently, Facebook is also tracking and gathering offline information from users profile and smartphone through different applications (Zhao et al., 2019). In future, this profiling will help companies to predict the future movement and preference of consumers (Pellet et al., 2019) Social media has gained popularity in the last decade, and lately risen to prominence among vendors, solution providers and consumers as a media of choice to connect with one another without any hassle or delays (Cakim, 2010). Social networking sites serve the users to disseminate their social circle or peers review and evaluation of their purchase decision. These sites grant the users the liberty to directly reach out to service providers and sellers with their complaints and response about products and services (Staff, 2012). Social media has given power to the consumers to ask or inquire about the features, attributes and value propositions of a product offering before they even make a purchase decision and it increases sales for companies (Woessner, 2010). Users are more informed and equipped about the reputation of any brand and their performance in the market compared to competing brands by reading the experience and feedback reviews of existing users of the particular product or business. (Al-Deen et al, 2011). Social media marketing holds the power that advertising messages can be targeted according to individual customerâ€™s preferences and can be sent out to multiple users, which their preferences in mind through the social networks. Social media marketing has positive impact on brand awareness (Kaimkhani, 2018). Social media is a platform where users share personal information, and armed with this personal information, social networking sites use advanced data mining techniques that

Yasser Ali Baeshen

enable customized marketing on a mass scale (Al-Deen et al, 2011). Many people think that there isn’t a great deal of difference between social WOM and traditional word-of-mouth. Believe is that only difference is in the mode or medium of communication. Furthermore, Social media has easily becoming a platform for spreading unverified news and reviews (Grinberg, 2012). The current trend and practice by company managers is that they are shifting their spending from traditional advertising campaigns to social media marketing to achieve their promotion objectives and word of mouth publicity (Sass, 2013). Consumer behavior depicts that one individual can affect the purchase decision of others. This elaborates the extent of ability of other people in altering final buying decisions (Keller, 2013). Pro-active business managers have recognized this trend and sense that alternatively smarter way is to focus on social media usage and create SWOM buzz instead of spending money on TV or print media advertising (Keller, 2013). Social networking sites are famous due to their engagement power and discussion forums. These networks are endued with the current technological tools that are instrumental in making an impact on consumers. Traditional WOM is limited due to time and space also does not patronize continuous dialogue between parties (Shih, 2009). Social networks like Facebook and Instagram, allows both buyers and sellers to establish partnership in the communication process and exchange. As the information flow in the virtual communities is smooth on these sites (Kirkland, 2010). Social networking sites such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and YouTube etc., brought the cost of advertising down immensely. Not just the costs of marketing has lowered but a much bigger audience pool could be easily targeted by utilizing these mediums and number attained through WOM method is less compared to SWOM (Scott, 2002). Now a consumer can easily share their opinions on social network sites, like as Facebook, twitter and it appeal other customers through it. Results indicate that a huge impact is created in the world of advertisement, through Social Voice. It is believe of many, that social voices plays a vital role in the decision making journey of a consumer. SWOM creates awareness and the decision making power gets clear and in a way or so, people get satisfaction as many people are getting tech savvy, therefore SWOM has increased significantly (Kirkland, 2010). Social Word of Mouth is a person’s informal opinion about a specific product, organization or services and the opinion are based on experiences only therefore it is more reliable and interesting. Communication among consumers that takes place, physically or through internet has a lot of significance for the marketing agents they are keen to know what the consumers are thinking and demanding of the product. This helps them to improve their product as per the demand of the costumer. This is somehow similar to the traditional method but of course SWOM is of much advance, efficient and effective. Earlier the marketing agents needed to give advertisements on air and spend heavy amount of money on the billboards to publicize the launch of their product but with the help of SWOM it is far more efficient, productive and economical. Positive eWOM (user-generated) on social media networking site such as Facebook has significant affect on brand attitude and purchase intention (Kudeshia & Kumar, 2017). Liu et al. (2017) stated that electronic word of mouth (eWOM) is an useful strategy that influence consumers’ evaluations for brand extension, However, authors also found that positive eWOM works more for high-similarity brand *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.219

extensions as compared to low-similarity ones. Therefore, following hypothesis was formulated to test that whether SWOM has any significant effect on purchase decision of brand extension. H2: Product recommendation via SWOM is significantly related to purchase decision of product extended.

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1

METHOD, SAMPLING TECHNIQUE AND SAMPLE SIZE

The main aims was to evaluate the difference between the impact levels of social WOM on social networks opposed to Traditional WOM assessing a better way to market product launched through brand extension. To achieve the main objectives of this research, a self-developed questionnaire was used to collect primary data from university students in Jeddah Saudi Arabia. A questionnaire survey was spread on social networking sites and WhatsApp application. It was the researcher’s prerogative to choose a respondent based on observation of certain traits that makes the candidate a suitable participant for the study non-restricted non-probability sampling (Cohen et al., 2007). Non-restricted sampling is the method that was used here as the entire population of the universe of candidates cannot be accessed. Target was to achieve 300 valid responses but only 200 were useful to process for data analysis and interpretation. Primary data collected is the first-hand information regarding any issue or problem of the research. As mentioned earlier, to achieve the objective of this study, a questionnaire was specifically designed to gather relevant and most accurate responses from the target audience. The questionnaire included 15 closed ended questions and was used to obtain data. The demographic analysis is presented in Table 1. Table 1: Demographic Analysis (Sample size=200) Qualification Bachelor’s Diploma Non educated Postgraduate studies Up to High School Total

Percentage 57.7 8.5 0.4 17.0 15.3 100.0

Gender Female Male Total

13.8 86.2 100.0

Age (years) ≤ 21years >21 - 25 >25 - 30 >30 - 35 > 35 Total

Percentage 68.4 26.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 100.0

3.2 RESEARCH MODEL DEVELOPED The research model that was used in this research paper was a conceptual model that uses hypothesis testing in order to understand the perceptions of respondents towards how they are influenced by word-of-mouth (WOM) or social media marketing messages SWOM. Astin’s IEO model (Kerlinger, 1979) has been used here and has been illustrated as follows: The model (Figure 1) indicates that social media marketing and WOM messages tend to influence the output – which is the consumer purchase decisions, directly as well as indirectly through the environment.

Yasser Ali Baeshen

Word-of-mouth Consumer purchase decisions regarding brand extension Social WOM Figure 1: Conceptual Research Model

4. RESULTS 4.1 FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS The mean value for the One Sample T-Test should not be less than 4 in order for Hypothesis 1 to be accepted. The mean value that has been noted here is greater than 4 which indicate that product recommendation via social media allows consumers to make more satisfying and quick purchase decisions thereby helping businesses attain better sales targets. Therefore, the first hypothesis stands “Accepted”. The mean value for One Sample T-Test should be less than 4 in order to be rejected, and here it has been indicated that the mean is less than 4 (refer Table 2), which indicates that the Word-ofMouth product recommendation method (sig > 0.001) is not considered to be favourable for businesses when it comes to increment of sales revenues as compared to social media marketing. Therefore, it is inferred that hypothesis H1 stands rejected. Table 2: One-Sample Statistics Social WOM Word-of-Mouth

Mean

Std. Error Mean

200 200

4.065 3.095

0.985 0.812

.0696 .0574

Table 3: One-Sample Test t Social WOM .933 Word-of-Mouth -15.755

Sig. (2-tailed)

199 199

.001 .015

Test Value = 4 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Mean Difference Lower Upper 0.065 -0.072 0.2023 -0.905 -1.018 -0.792

Table 4: Independent Samples Test Variance

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference

t-test for Equality of Means

Sig.

12.392

<0.001

10.745

398

10.745 384.097

Sig. Mean (2-tailed) Difference

Std. Error Difference

Lower

Upper

0.97

0.090

0.793

1.147

0.97

0.090

0.793

1.147

*Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.219

The Levene's Test sig. (<0.001) indicates that the variance in SWOM is significantly different than that of traditional WOM, showing SWOM is more effective in increase in sales of companyâ€™s products and services, which requires social media for its marketing and advertising. Table 5: Research hypotheses assessment summary Hypotheses H1: Traditional WOM is significantly related to consumer purchase decision of product extended. H2: SWOM is significantly related to purchase decision of product extended.

Empirical Conclusion Not supported Supported

This research study has practical contribution for managers of companies to take advantage of social media by engaging consumer to consumers into discussion. User-generated content is a new trend and marketers have to encourage buyers and consumer after purchasing to post a video or written blog post as review and then monitor the discussion to counter any negative reviews and highlight positive reviews. This can be achieved as social media teams can monitor the forums and communities as neutral users, unlike in traditional marketing where, marketers had no interference in the conversations between consumers, peers and associates. This is what highlights the importance of using social networking sites for companies to create buzz in more controlled and monitored manner. This study paves way for readers to ponder and research further in this field pertaining to marketing. In fact the conclusions derived from this research can open doors for future assessment of better product recommendation within area of SWOM and digital WOM. There are different avenues of future research that can be looked into and these include the convenience with which some marketers can taper social networking websites like Facebook, twitter, snapdeal /snapchat and ebay.com which are gradually budding as significant shopping tools for both sellers and buyers. Additional research can be carried out on the topic of social networking websites that want to target customers more strategically by matching the demographics of consumer such as income, gender, age that match their target group and product. Social networking sites and other mediums alike do demonstrate a powerful but also can harm the reputation and acceptability for businesses for those who will received may negative reviews of users; therefore future research can be based on answering how risk can be minimized by businesses.

5. CONCLUSION This research study was aspired at determining the difference between word of mouth (WOM) technique and social WOM; and how both impacts on consumer purchase decision for brand extension purchases. Previous literature showed support for both the techniques and each had its merits and limitations. Besides, this research finding confirmed that WOM carried on social networking has more impacts and the most desirable technique for appealing consumers towards a particular brand. The concept of globalization has enclosed the entire world into our computer systems enabling the people to keep track of the latest updates and news available. It is argued that social networks, contrasting with the other forms of media, loses track as to how much information has to be

Yasser Ali Baeshen

transmitted and where to stop dissemination. Security could become another vicinity of distress where people can gain easy yet unlawful right to a userâ€™s information. Without a doubt social networking sites have promising future for advertising but still have to overcome the issues associated with it. Having so many promotional options available, there was a need to achieve a thoughtful perceptive of who influences the consumer buying behaviour of consumers. To simply conclude the research findings, it can be assured that social media, alike any other media and mediums have equally positives and negatives outcomes. Businesses have to wisely and smartly utilized and defend themselves against any rumour or negative news or propaganda created due to social media. Then, the consumers may have different attitude and behaviour about how search for information and seek recommendation regarding any product. Some people may prefer virtual or in person information regarding the products or services, therefore preference for social media buzz or peer buzz can vary. Social networking site are in growth and drastically improving with each day passing and further room for research in this area does exist. With the greater than before use of social networks, it is not surprising to know that results of research further confirm the reality that social networking platforms are the preferred mediums to network and spend time for most people. According to Rutledge (2008) that the chief persuasion on online buying behaviour nowadays are online blog reviews and the personal experiences of connection and friends, and most significantly on social sites like Facebook and Twitter. The finding still need to be research further to check the shift from conventional methods of advertising to the social media formats, however what is apparent is the fact that companies urgently need to establish an understanding regarding this process if they would like to connect with their consumers and enhance their sales.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

7. REFERENCES Aaker, D.A. & Keller, K.L. (1990). Consumer evaluations of brand extensions, Journal of Marketing, 54(1), 27-41 Almana, A. M., and Mirza, A.A. (2013). The impact of electronic word of mouth on consumers' purchasing decisions. International Journal of Computer Applications, 82(9), 23-31. Al-Deen, Hana, S., and Hendricks, J. (2011). Social Media: Usage and Impact. Oxford: Lexington Books. Anderson, P. (2001). Relationship development and marketing communication:an integrative model. . Journal or Business and Industrial Marketing, 167-182. Anderson, E. W. (1998). Customer Satisfaction and Word of Mouth. Journal of service research, 1(1), 5-17 BrightLocal. (2016). Local consumer review survey 2016. local-consumer-review-survey (accessed January 2020).

www.brightlocal.com/learn/

Cakim, I. M. (2010). Implementing Word of Mouth Marketing: Online Strategies to Identify Influencers, Craft Stories, and Draw Customers. Oxford, John Wiley and Sons. *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.219

Cohen, L., Manion, L., and Morrison, K. (2007). Research methods in education. London and New York: Routledge. Estes, Z., Gilbert, M., Guest, D., & Mazursky, D., (2012), A dual-process model of brand extension: taxonomic-feature based and thematic-relation-based similarity independently drive brand extension evaluation, Journal of Consumer Psychology, 22-1, 86-101 Ghorban, Z. S., & Tahernejad, H. (2012). A study on effect of brand credibility on word of mouth: With reference to internet service providers in Malaysia. International Journal of Marketing Studies, 4(1), 26. Grinberg, M. (2012). The Next Generation of Social Media Marketing Strategy. Huffington Post. Holland, D. (2016, April 26). Word of Mouth Marketing Association. Retrieved from womma: https://womma.org/social-media-marketing-word-mouth-marketing/ Hoye, V.G. & Lievens, F. (2009). Tapping the grapevine: A closer look at word-of-mouth as a recruitment source. Journal of Applied Psychology, 94, 341-352. Kaimkhani, S. A. (2018). Does social media marketing affect the knowledge acquisition and brand awareness: an exploratory study of female users?, International Women Online Journal of Distance Education, 8(1), 9-23. Keller, K.L (2003). Brand Synthesis: The Multidimensionality of Brand Knowledge. Journal of Consumer Research , 595-601 Keller, K.L.and Aaker,D.A. (1992), The Effects of Sequential Introduction of Brand Extensions, Journal of Marketing Research, 29, 35-50. Keller, E. & Fay, B. (2012). Word-of-Mouth Advocacy: A New Key to Advertising Effectiveness. Journal of advertising research, 52(4), 1-7 Keller, M. (2013). Social Media and Interpersonal Communication . Social Work Today, 13(3). Kerlinger, F. (1979). Behavioral research: A conceptual approach. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. Kirkland, K. (2010). The Writer's Guide to Self-Marketing Using Social Networking Sites. Oxford: C&M Online Media, Inc. Kudeshia, C., & Kumar, A. (2017). Social eWOM: does it affect the brand attitude and purchase intention of brands? Management Research Review. Liu, X., Hu, J., & Xu, B. (2017). Does eWOM matter to brand extension?. Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing. 11(3), 232-245 Pellet, H., Shiaeles, S., & Stavrou, S. (2019). Localising social network users and profiling their movement. Computers & Security, 81, 49-57. Rezvani, M., Hoseini, S.M.K. & Samadzadeh, M.M. (2012). Investigating the role of word of mouth on consumer based brand equity creation in Iranâ€™s cellâ€“phone market. Journal of knowledge management, economics and information technology, (8), 1-15 Sass, E. (2013). Social Media Affects Purchase Decisions, ARF Finds. Retrieved July 2013, from http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/191791/social-media-affects-purchase-decisionsarf-finds.html#axzz2JmP0ED3r Shih, C. (2009). The Facebook Era: Tapping Online Social Networks to Build Better Products, Reach New Audiences, and Sell More Stuff. Oxford: Prentice Hall. Soomro, Y. A., & Issani, M. A. (2017). Success of brand extension in glocalization: A mediation and moderation analysis. Pakistan Business Review, 18(4), 924-942.

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Soomro, Y. A., Issani, M. A. I. A., & Nasim, S. (2016). Consumer perceived brand concept & close brand extension: A multi-mediation model analysis. Journal of Business Studies, 12(1). Soomro, Y. A. (2019). Understanding the Adoption of SADAD E-Payments: UTAUT Combined with Religiosity as Moderator. International Journal of E-Business, 15(1), 55-74. Staff,

C. (2012). Social Media Changing IT Marketing, http://channelnomics.com/2012/03/05/social-media-changing-marketing-buying

Buying.

Strauss, S. D. (2012). The Small Business Bible: Everything You Need to Know to Succeed in Your Small Business. Oxford: John Wiley and Sons. Sundaram, D. S., & Webster, C. (1999). The role of brand familiarity on the impact of word-of-mouth communication on brand evaluations. ACR North American Advances. Woessner, S. (2010). Increase Online Sales Through Viral Social Networking. Ocala, Florida: Atlantic Publishing Company. Zhao, S., Li, S., Ramos, J., Luo, Z., Jiang, Z., Dey, A. K., & Pan, G. (2019). User profiling from their use of smartphone applications: A survey. Pervasive and Mobile Computing, 101052. Dr.Yasser Ali Baeshen is an Assistant Professor and Chairman of the Department of Marketing, the King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Saudi Arabia. He had a Master’s degree from Australia. He received his Doctorate degree in Marketing from Brunnel University, United Kingdom. His main areas of research is e-Marketing and Digital Marketing.

*Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa

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PAPER ID: 11A11P

EFFECTS OF DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR LONG-LIFE FRUIT TREES ON DIFFERENT ECONOMIC BASES Walid M. A. Khalifa 1 2

1,2*

, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Hail, SAUDI ARABIA. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Fayoum, EGYPT.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 14 January 2020 Received in revised form 24 April 2020 Accepted 15 May 2020 Available online 28 May 2020

The important step for an agriculture project is to select from the available alternatives, based on the site conditions, the crop type, system of irrigation, system configurations, and laterals’ arrangement. Based on economic selection bases, the best combination is that requires minimum initial installation cost and/or minimum total annual costs and/or minimum energy cost and/or minimum maintenance cost or gives maximum benefit/cost (B/C) ratio and/or maximum net returns and/or maximum net cultivated area. The objectives of the present study were to use the drip irrigation model TISD linked with the measures of the economic analysis to study the effect of system configurations and lateral’s directions for long-life fruit trees on the selected economic bases. The study was conducted on eleven long-life fruit trees based on physical, crop, and economic conditions. The long-life fruit trees considered in the study were: apples, apricots, bananas, citrus, dates, figs, grapes, guavas, mangoes, olives, and pears. The results revealed that the drip irrigation system with configurations and laterals’ direction has a very small effect on the B/C ratio, the annual net return, total annual costs, and net cultivated area. Further, the system used in the study has a very high effect on initial capital cost and annual energy cost. Moreover, the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction have a considerable effect on the annual maintenance cost.

Keywords:

Drip irrigation, Drip system configuration; Maximum benefit/cost (B/C) ratio; Fruit trees; Crop productivity; Economics of crop farming.

1. INTRODUCTION Drip irrigation is the most water-efficient method of irrigation, and in developed countries is often the most cost-efficient method for high-value crops as well (Asmon and Rothe, 2006). This system of irrigation is an efficient, reliable, and economically viable water management strategy to irrigate more land areas with existing limited water resources and economic returns (Mandal et al., *Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A11P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.220

2007). The economic assessment of the drip irrigation system in fruit crops reveals that this system can save a considerable amount of water and leads better returns regardless of the higher initial investment (Behera and Sahoo, 1998). The drip-irrigation can apply small but frequent irrigation in terms of water saving, yield, quality, and water use efficiency (Shrivastava et al., 1994; Hanson et al., 1997). The drip irrigation systems also provide the opportunity to apply an appropriate amount of nutrients and chemicals along with water, which reduces leaching losses and enhances yield, quality and water, and nutrient use efficiency (Bresler, 1977; Mohammad et al., 1999). The effect of the sowing of the one-hectare area using a trickle irrigation system has been studied by Tiwari and Reddy (1997) on banana yield, capital cost, operating cost, and net return. The cost analysis was carried out based on yield results under different sowing geometry patterns. The analysis revealed that the net return was set to be maximally for one plant at a place of 2-m spacing. It was found that the length to width ratio of sowing has a high correlation with the initial capital cost and the total annual cost. The highest return was gained at 4-m spacing with 2 plants per location. Cuykendall and White (1998) did the drip irrigation investment and costs in an apple orchard. The project was designed to help farmers in determining the investment, fixed and variable costs, and expected returns from drip irrigation. In the project, economic worksheets were developed to help farmers in assessing fixed and variable costs of drip irrigation. The economics of yield data were applied to replicate multi-year irrigation studies to help farmers in determining yield response from drip irrigation. Net present value (NPV) methodology was applied to estimate the discounted break-even investment results from published responses to drip irrigation, with investments in drip irrigation of $464-880 per acre for 10 acres free of trees. Within over seven years of data from the Agricultural Experiment Station in New York State, the average yield increased due to irrigation was 117 bushels per acre, resulting in a break-even investment of around $2,000 per acre. Cetin et al. (2004) evaluate the financial investment in drip irrigation systems to help Turkish apple farmers, under the NPV criterion to determine the discounted breakeven investment results from published responses to drip irrigation systems. Farmers with typical drip irrigation systems could expect an initial investment of US$1415 per ha when the orchard blocks are 5 ha in size. The survey results indicated that NPV was US$2584 for “Granny Smith” and US$909 for “Golden Delicious”, respectively, after an initial investment of US$1415 per ha. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that, in present value terms, a farmer could spend up to US$3999 for “Granny Smith” and US$2324 for “Golden Delicious” per ha for drip irrigation systems and still break even. Asmon and Rothe (2006) studied the economic feasibility of drip irrigation in Afghanistan. Their economic analyses were summarized in three main findings. First, drip irrigation systems make the relatively high capital costs when there is a relatively high cost associated with the use of water. Also, drip systems make sense when the water is scarce, and saving water to expand the farmer’s irrigated area is a high priority for that farmer. Finally, drip irrigation should be used exclusively when the water source is a tube well. With a deep tube-well (120m or more), drip is consistently remunerative, for all fruit types investigated; grapes, pomegranates, almonds, apricots, and apples. In sum, the overall finding of the study is that drip irrigation in Afghanistan is an important element of agricultural development policy for the medium term (5-7 years). Mandal et al. (2007) studied guava orchard to study the effect of drip irrigation system on yield, quality, and economic return of guava production in saline soil having pH 8.18 and EC 0.95 S/m. The

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

results of drip irrigation used for guava started bearing at 3rd year of sowing. The drip-irrigated planted guava at 6m x 6m, produced 8.31 t/ha and 15.0 t/ha, whereas at 5m x 5m, 12.0 and 21.60 t/ha after 3rd and 4th year of planting, respectively. The highest production cost (Rs. 68,764 ha-1), net profit (Rs. 82,346 ha-1) as well as B/C ratio (2.20) were higher at 5m x 5m distance. Nassar (2009) applied micro irrigation systems (trickle and bubblers) for olive trees at Wadi EL Natrown, Egypt, with a split-plot design. The olive trees were planted in the center of an irrigated round base of 1 m diameter. The distance between the tree rows and the trees in the same row is 5 m. Concerning the hydraulic specifications and their position: 1) For the drip irrigation 4 emitters (12 l/h) for each tree placed on one lateral line PE 16 mm diameter passing through the center of the tree round base; where each emitter is 30 cm distant from the next one; 2) For the bubblers, one bubbler per each tree (100 l/h) placed in the tree round base, 25 cm distance from the tree stem moving monthly in 180º clockwise to maintain good water distribution. A comparison was made between the different systems taking into account the following points: olive trees morphology (plant height and stem diameter), shoots number for each tree, leaves a number for each tree, shadow area, and root distribution, several fruits for each tree, fruit weight, the yield for each tree, total yield per feddan (1 feddan = 4200 m2), efficiency of the yield and both content of soil moisture and distribution of soil salt. The results obtained show the usefulness of trickle irrigation system in olive trees growing rather than the bubblers where the trees’ height increased by 9.2%, stem diameter increased by 14%, shoots number per tree increased by 14%, leaves number per tree increased by 17%, shadow area increased by 13%. Also, trickle irrigation systems demonstrate the highest values of sand soil moisture content at 18, 16, and 10.5% by weight) in the soil layers (00–30), (30-60) and (60-90) cm, respectively. The olive trees' root distribution under trickle irrigation showed more regularity than other types due to root distribution relative to the placement and the number of irrigation distributors. The net effect of trickle-irrigation was to increase water saving for producing one kilogram of olive fruits with 18% less than with bubblers. The number of fruits increased under trickle irrigation by 16% while the olive tree yield (kg/tree) increased by 18% compared with bubblers respectively. Wilde et al. (2009) studied a field of installation subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) systems at Texas, USA to record the agronomic effects of uniformities distribution on cotton production over six years. NPVs were evaluated for each level of irrigation and uniformity. At the lower irrigation level, the study concluded that the least uniform design provided a higher NPV. Further, the length of the scheduling horizon influenced NPV with the more uniform system due to the cumulative effect of small enhancements in net income over a longer time. Besides, the producer's risk aversion (RA) level influenced their choice of design uniformities. A more RA producer excelled in a more uniform design and was willing to pay a higher installation cost for a more uniform system. A less RA producer preferred a less uniform system design with a lower initial cost. A subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system was used by Soussa (2010) to investigate the suitable irrigation water schemes in open fields and greenhouse for tomatoes and peppers. The study investigated the effects of soil form and climate on consuming water. Two Enviroscan sensors were composited to measure the soil moisture. Further, two weather stations were held to measure the climate parameters. The crop evapotranspiration and the amount of irrigation water were estimated using software based on the Penman-Monteith approach. The climate and crop growth parameters, *Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

and the crop water use were estimated. These estimated values were used to develop a suitable scheme for water use and crop production. The results showed a significant increase in crop productivity by 18% when the suggested SDI system is used over the normal drip irrigation system. Kumar and Palanisami (2010) studied impacts of drip irrigation on the farming system in terms of cropping patterns, resources use and yield. The study showed that the adoption of drip irrigation technology has increased the net sown area, net irrigated area, and thereby has supported in obtaining higher cropping consistency and irrigation intensity. The results suggested that a valuable move towards crops such as coconut, grapes, and banana from annual crops like vegetables, sugarcane. The main causes have been found as a shortage of human labor and water. The analysis of the economics of crop farming under drip has detected that the drip method of irrigation has an important impact on resource-saving, cost of cultivation, yield of crops, and farm profitability. The physical water and energy productivity is importantly high in the drip over the other methods of irrigation. A 4-year study was conducted by Ehret et al. (2012) to set the effects of drip irrigation configuration and rate on fruit yield and quality of young highbush blueberry plants. Plants were grown in a silt loam soil on raised beds and were non-irrigated or irrigated using either one or two lines of suspended drip strip. Each lateralsâ€™ configuration had emitters spaced every 0.3 or 0.45 m. Water was supplied by each drip configuration for two rates, a moderate of 5 L/plant, and a heavy of 10 L/plant each per irrigation episode. Neither the number of irrigation lines nor emitter spacing had an impact on yield or fruit quality. The yield was not affected by irrigation rate until the fourth year after planting and with only 5 L/plant. The yield increase was the result of differences in fruit weight during the second of two harvests and was associated with delays in fruit maturation. Narayanamoorthy and Devika (2017) studied the economic and resource impacts of drip irrigation including its benefit-cost pattern using survey data in crops like okra. The study found that the use of drip irrigation can reduce 15% of cultivation cost, save 47% of water resources and electrical energy, and increase 49% of the productivity of okra for the same cultivated area under the traditional method of irrigation. Farmers cultivating okra under using the drip irrigation showed that an additional farm business income of RS 72,711 per acre over the non-drip adopters. Dhehibi et al. (2018) studied the effect of subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) at the rate of 60% 40% and 20% of water requirement on the date palm productivity and water use efficiency. The water quantity could be reduced using SDI at rates of 20%, 40%, and 60% of water demands, respectively. Thus, the yield of the date palm is for 2.0, 2.7, and 4.7 kg/m3, respectively. The economic evaluation suggested that using SDI at the rate of 60% of water requirements, the net profit was US$12825/ha. The economic analysis of high-efficiency irrigation systems in Pakistan have been conducted by Razzaq et al. (2018). The water productivity of modern and conventional-irrigated farms have been observed and compared. The wheat crop used the water of sprinkler systems while mango orchards used the drip irrigation systems. Economic analysis of benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV) revealed that the installation of sprinkler and drip irrigation systems were an economically feasible option. Further, the productivity of conventional farms was less than those of modern ones. El-Attar et al. (2019) studied the effect of the irrigation system and the number of drippers on yield, fruit quality, chlorophyll and leaf mineral content of mango trees which grown under conditions of sandy soil were watered with 6, 9, or 12 drippers for each tree, either as a surface or subsurface of irrigation system. The obtained results indicated that the subsurface irrigation system

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

was more effective than the surface one. The drippers’ number showed different effects concerning yield per tree or the fruit’s quality and the leaf mineral content. From one hand, it could be concluded that the trees which were irrigated with 9 subsurface drippers save the irrigation water without a significant decrease in the yield compared to the control (12 drippers as the surface irrigation). On the other hand, as a subsurface dripper irrigation system, the highest significant yield as kg/tree was obtained due to 12 drippers/tree compared with the 9 or 6 drippers/tree. García et al. (2020) reviewed the current irrigation scheduling methodologies based on two case studies (woody and field crops) located in semi-arid areas. The preferable irrigation program had been noticed requiring good investment for equipment, operation, and maintenance services. These approaches could be suitable for the low availability of water and profited highly. Khalifa (2020b) conducted the economic analysis on seven crops and nine vegetables using the trickle irrigation system in a hypothetical field in Egypt based on the physical and economic conditions. Economic analysis measures of benefit-cost ratio (B/C) and net return values (B − C) were estimated. The crops considered in the study were: sugar beet, lupine, lentil, chickpea, soybean, sesame, and peanuts. Also, the concerning vegetables were tomato, onion, garlic, peas, cabbage, eggplant, watermelon, cantaloupe, and cowpea. Some convenient rotations for the crops and vegetables were presented. The study results showed that high values of net returns were attained for most crop rotations. Further, most of B/C for crop rotations have been ranged between 1.5 and up to more than 2.0. These estimated results corroborated that investment in trickle irrigation could be economically highly viable for arid arable lands such as Arab countries. However, the major scopes of drip irrigation appear to be in fruit crops where the system can provide a substantial water economy and better productivity. Further, the cost of the system will be reasonable, economical, and viable. Indeed, drip irrigation is highly convenient for all wide-spaced crops. Drip irrigation is very useful in fruit crops, but the information on the economic viability of this system is lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the effect of a drip irrigation system with different configurations on different economic bases such as; fixed costs, labor cost, energy cost, maintenance cost, the net return, and benefit-cost ratio for long-life fruit trees.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS This study used the model of trickle irrigation system design (TISD) developed by Khalifa (2020a) to design the trickle irrigation system with the economic analysis deliberated by Khalifa (2020b) to estimate the impact of drip irrigation system on several bases of economic agronomy. These economic bases include fixed costs, labor cost, energy cost, maintenance cost, the net return, and benefit-cost ratio. This study applied to long-life fruit trees (apples, apricots, bananas, citrus, dates-palm, figs, grapes, guavas, mangoes, olives, and pears).

2.1 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS All the economic analysis for this study was referred to Khalifa (2020b). By summing the main bases of these analyses, the total annual costs of trickle system are the sum of annual costs’ components on account for capital (construction elements of drip system including outlets, regulator, laterals, manifolds, mainlines, fittings, and pump and raw land costs), plantation and labor costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, production costs (including; land preparation, seeding, fertilization, *Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

weeding, pest control, and harvesting), water and taxes (if any), and equivalent annual cost component of first years’ costs. Also, net returns are estimated by subtracting the above estimated average total annual costs (C) from the average annual gross returns (B). If the economic goal is to maximize net return, then the system with the largest net return (B − C) meets the goal based on the economic analysis. Further, the B/C ratio is considered an important criterion of economic analysis. If the goal is to maximize the return on investment, then the system that yields the highest B/C ratio best meets the goal based on the economic analysis. It is possible, even common, to have one system yield the largest net return and another has the highest B/C ratio. The final selection of the drip irrigation system, usually, reduces the system and configuration that either returns the greatest net benefits (B − C) or provides the best return on investment (B/C) depending upon the goal selected. After the system and configuration have been selected and designed, the project should be presented by preparing plans, schedules, and instructions for proper layout. Plans must show the pump position, network alignment, laterals’ position, and strips, and roads’ dimension. The schedules should list the necessary information about crops, weather, soil, irrigation, system components, costs, and expected benefits from the project. Generally, final selection should not be made by the designer alone but presented to the owner and operator and the decision made jointly. Control Valve

Manifold Laterals

Pump

L Submain

Main Pipe

Subunit

B Figure 1: Configuration #1 for Drip Irrigation System (Khalifa, 2020a). Control Valve

Manifold Laterals

Pump

L Main Pipe

Submain

Subunit

B Figure 2: Configuration #2 for Drip Irrigation System (Khalifa, 2020a).

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

2.2 DRIP IRRIGATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT The trickle irrigation system design (TISD) model developed by Khalifa (2020a) and redeveloped by Khalifa (2020b) to consider the economic analysis is used to estimate the effects of the drip configurations and laterals’ direction according to the North on the economic bases of long-life fruit trees. Thus, the economic analysis should be linked with TISD to consider the most economic size for different pipe reaches of laterals, manifolds, and main pipe. The most economical pipe size gives the minimum sum of fixed cost (material) and energy cost (power). The used pipe material depends on the landowner's needs and used system. For manifolds and main pipe network of the drip irrigation system; PVC pipe is usually used, and must satisfy the installation and operating conditions. The most economic pipe size selection is based on many parameters: desired rate of interest by the developer; pipe material and its life cycle; equivalent annual rate of energy inflation; pump efficiency; fuel cost per unit of brake power output (Bliesner and Keller, 1982); pipe price; and the system capacity. Thus, this study used the two common configurations, see Figures 1 and 2. Each system configuration, the laterals’ direction may be parallel to the farm width (parallel North, PN) or the farm length (normal North, NN). Figure 3 shows the flowchart for developing the TISD model.

PHYSICAL CONDITIONS • Soil type: soil texture • Climate conditions: tropical zone and wind speed • Field conditions: shape dimensions and topography • Irrigation water quality

• • • • •

CROP CHOSEN Long-life fruit trees: 1. Apples 2. Apricots 3. Banana 4. Citrus 5. Dates 6. Figs 7. Grapes 8. Guava 9. Mangoes 10.Olives 11.Pears

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Fixed cost • Capital system cost Plantation cost • Labor cost Energy cost • Maintenance cost Crop production cost • Equivalent first year costs Net return • Benefit-cost ratio

CROP CONDITIONS Plant spacing Plant root depth Percentage shaded area Average rate of water use Seasonal water requirements • Leaching requirement ratio

• • • • •

DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM • System configurations: 1 or 2 • Laterals directions: parallel width or length • System components: outlets, laterals, pipe network, fittings, and pump station

Figure 3: Flowchart of developing the Trickle Irrigation System Model (TISD).

2.3 CASE STUDY A hypothetical farm in Egypt as shown in Figure 4 was studied by the developed model TISD to show the physical, crop, and economic conditions (see Table 1). 2%

N B = 670 1.5% L = 790 Figure 4: Farm shape and topography of the case study (Khalifa, 2020b). *Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

Table 1: Site physical, crop, and economic data of the case study Soil type: Climatic conditions: Farm shape: Farm topography:

Crop conditions:

Obstructions:

Water source:

Raw land value: Real interest rate: Nominal interest rate: Electric energy:

Labor:

Construction elements:

Physical and Crop Conditions Coarse texture (coarse or fine or loamy sands) Hot climate (Middle Egypt) Wind speed = 3.0 mph Figure 4 Figure 4 Plant spacing Doorenbos and Pruitt (1992) Plant root depth SCS (1993) Percentage shaded area Sawa and Frenken (2002) The average rate of water use Steduto et al. (2012) Seasonal water requirements Reddy et al. (2017) Leaching requirement ratio No Surface water Suction head = 6.0 m Water quantity = no restriction Frequency = continuous Water quality, Electrical Conductivity = 640.0 ppm = 1.0 dS/m Water price = 0.0 US$/m3 Economic Conditions RAW = 1000 US$/ha RIR = 6.0% NIR = 10.0% Energy cost = 0.10 US$/kW-hr. (for 2018 prices) Energy escalation rate = 27.0% (for 2018 prices) https://eipr.org/en/publications/electricity-facts-20172018-price-hikes-continue Available and reliable Labor cost = 4.5 US$/man-hr. (for 2018 prices) Labor escalation rate = 5.0%. (for 2018 prices) https://www.capmas.gov.eg/HomePage.aspx Available for drip irrigation system Available maintenance supports PVC specification = DIN (Germany) PVC price = 15 US$/kg of PVC (for 2018) Aluminum and steel pipe (Keller and Bliesner, 1990) Outletsâ€™ prices (Rain Bird, 2018)

Based on the agricultural statistics in Egypt (FAOSTAT, http://www.fao.org/faostat/en), the required information of the concerned long-life fruit trees in 2018 is listed in Table 2. Table 2: Economic information of concerned long-life fruits for the case study (FAOSTAT, 2018) Fruit trees Apples Apricots Bananas Citrus Dates-palm Figs Grapes Guavas Mangoes Olives Pears

Fruit production price Average fruit (US$/ha) production (ton/ha) 4707.4 25.09 4174.2 15.43 13295.9 46.44 3726.2 24.11 5253.4 31.76 1336.2 6.59 5158.9 22.31 1473.6 14.78 2697.8 6.78 3135.2 10.41 3702.6 15.89 * FAOSTAT (2017)

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

Average fruit price (US$/ton)* 187.6 270.6 286.3 154.55 165.4 202.8 231.2 99.7 397.9 301.1 233

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION According to the physical, crops, and economic data site conditions, the developed model (TISD; Khalifa (2020a, 2020b) was run for all selected long-life fruit trees under the point-source drip irrigation system with the two common configurations shown in Figures 1 and 2 according to the shape of case study shown in Figure 4. Table 3 listed the summary of the model designs for long-life fruit trees. After completing the system design trails and their economic analysis, TISD selects the most economic design based on the maximum B/C ratio. The expected system costs and returns were also calculated by the model. The listed parameters in Table 3 are as follow: 1. The present worth capital (fixed) cost per unit area of the farm, (US$/ha); 2. The total annual costs per unit area of the farm, (US$/ha), which include: annual capital system cost (US$/ha); annual capital raw land cost (US$/ha); annual plantation cost (US$/ha); annual labor cost (US$/ha); annual energy cost (US$/ha); annual maintenance cost (US$/ha); annual crop production cost (US$/ha). 3. The net cultivated area under point-source drip irrigation system (ha); 4. The expected annual net return per unit area of the farm, (US$/ha); and 5. The expected B/C ratio from the project.

Labor

Energy

Maintenance

Production

Equivalent 1st years

Total

27 27 27 27 17 17 17 17 40 40 40 40

86 88 87 84 56 56 56 53 554 554 558 558

4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 14 14 14 14

196 182 180 187 135 136 113 123 443 411 382 393

12 12 10 13 8 8 7 9 29 29 25 32

2306 2355 2351 2238 1191 1191 1191 1143 6137 6137 6187 6187

593 602 596 581 502 502 489 485 1641 1632 1627 1649

3300 3345 3316 3226 1963 1963 1916 1895 9051 9008 8986 9092

*Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

B/C

Plantation

75 75 60 92 52 51 41 62 192 189 153 219

Net return (US$/ha)

Land

721 768 631 899 509 507 383 600 1764 1745 1200 2087

Gross return (US$/ha)

System

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Net area (ha)

Fixed cost (US$/ha)

Total annual costs (US$/ha)

Configuration and lateral direction

Bananas

Apricots

Apples

Fruit trees

For long-life trees, the first years of agriculture (from 3-7 years according to the trees’ type) there is no normal production. Therefore, the first years’ costs were calculated by the model as a present worth and redistribution over the project life. So, the total annual costs include the equivalent annual cost component of the first years’ costs before full production. From Table 3, the best conditions of long-life trees, based on a drip irrigation system, system configurations, and laterals’ directions could be obtained. These conditions could be selected based on different selection bases. The considered selection bases are; maximum B/C ratio, the maximum net return, maximum net cultivated area, minimum fixed cost, minimum total annual costs, minimum annual energy cost, minimum annual labor cost, and minimum annual maintenance cost. Then, the landowner can select suitable conditions for him. Table 4 lists the best conditions of the type of fruit, system configurations, and laterals’ directions based on different selection bases. Table 3: Summary of TISD model of the case study for long-life fruit trees

51.45 52.54 52.46 49.94 52.04 52.04 52.04 49.94 51.79 51.79 52.21 52.21

4576 4673 4666 4441 4104 4104 4104 3938 13010 13010 13115 13115

1276 1328 1349 1216 2141 2141 2188 2043 3959 4002 4129 4023

1.39 1.40 1.41 1.38 2.09 2.09 2.14 2.08 1.44 1.44 1.46 1.44

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Labor

Energy

Maintenance

Production

Equivalent 1st years

Total

20 20 20 20 27 27 27 27 13 13 13 13 24 24 24 24 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16

25 25 25 25 221 216 219 207 17 17 16 16 83 83 83 83 21 21 21 20 18 18 18 17 26 26 25 25 33 31 34 33

2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

155 173 181 189 140 161 168 165 45 51 53 50 141 123 141 124 84 96 99 93 34 38 41 42 76 85 89 93 110 104 95 92

7 7 7 9 8 11 9 11 5 5 5 7 13 13 13 15 4 4 4 6 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 6 7 4 6

1667 1667 1651 1643 1462 1427 1446 1375 879 879 872 851 2173 2157 2191 2191 714 714 709 691 923 923 909 882 1295 1295 1283 1277 1350 1290 1378 1337

650 657 656 665 667 674 673 656 337 339 338 336 551 546 556 559 294 298 299 295 449 450 447 442 647 651 650 658 339 328 340 334

2563 2588 2582 2614 2577 2600 2600 2527 1327 1335 1332 1318 3063 3034 3088 3101 1154 1170 1171 1155 1455 1460 1449 1428 2095 2107 2100 2123 1891 1824 1897 1862

B/C

Plantation

38 38 42 62 49 80 55 82 29 29 32 45 77 86 79 103 24 24 27 37 17 17 19 30 29 29 32 47 36 46 28 43

Net return (US$/ha)

Land

350 346 526 634 458 798 682 849 255 252 369 449 806 849 799 995 213 210 307 375 170 165 262 318 268 265 403 486 398 486 331 470

Gross return (US$/ha)

System

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Net area (ha)

Fixed cost (US$/ha)

Total annual costs (US$/ha)

Configuration and lateral direction

Pears

Olives

Mangoes

Guavas

Grapes

Figs

Dates

Citrus

Fruit trees

Table 3: Summary of TISD model of the case study for long-life fruit trees (continue)

52.75 52.75 52.25 52 52.04 50.78 51.45 48.93 52.21 52.21 51.79 50.53 51.32 50.95 51.74 51.74 52.21 52.21 51.79 50.53 51.87 51.87 51.11 49.6 52.75 52.75 52.25 52 51.66 49.39 52.75 51.16

3714 3714 3678 3661 5165 5040 5107 4856 1318 1318 1307 1276 5002 4966 5043 5043 1454 1454 1442 1407 2644 2644 2605 2528 3125 3125 3095 3080 3614 3455 3690 3579

1151 1126 1096 1047 2588 2440 2507 2329 -9 -17 -24 -43 1939 1932 1955 1942 300 283 271 252 1189 1184 1156 1100 1030 1017 995 957 1723 1631 1793 1717

1.45 1.44 1.42 1.40 2.00 1.94 1.96 1.92 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 1.63 1.64 1.63 1.63 1.26 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.82 1.81 1.80 1.77 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.91 1.89 1.95 1.92

Table 4: Best design conditions based on different selection bases Best conditions

Fruit trees

Selection bases Maximum B/C ratio Maximum Annual net return Minimum Initial capital cost The maximum Net cultivated area Minimum Total annual costs Minimum Energy cost Minimum Labor cost Minimum Maintenance cost

Apricots and Dates Bananas Guavas and Mangoes Citrus and Olives Pears Figs, Guavas, and Mangoes Figs and Mangoes Mangoes Mangoes

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

System configurations

Lateralsâ€™ direction

#1 & #2 #1 & #2 #1 & #2 #1 & #2 #1 #1 & #2 #1 & #2 #1 & #2 #1 & #2

PN or NN PN or NN PN PN NN PN or NN PN or NN PN or NN PN or NN

From the previous analysis that applying the work of case study to design a certain project, a lot of time and effort is required. To reduce the required time and effort, a simple manual method is proposed to select the most promising configurations of a drip irrigation system for each specific site based on the desired economic goal. This method reduces the alternatives that should be designed by the TISD model to select the best configuration. Therefore, a parametric study should be conducted to discuss the effects of different long-life fruit trees on the different costs and returns of common systems, configurations, and possible laterals’ directions. So, the TIDS model was run for the long-life trees (Table 2) under the drip irrigation system configurations by using the physical and economic data (Table 1). The selection basis of the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction refers to the landowner. This basis may be one of the following factors: 1. Maximum B/C ratio or maximum net return or maximum net cultivated area. 2. Minimum initial capital cost or minimum total annual costs or minimum annual operating and maintenance costs.

3.1 EFFECT OF DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM ON MAXIMUM ECONOMIC BASES Figures 5, 6, and 7 show the calculated B/C ratios, the annual net return, and net cultivated area, respectively of the chosen trees (Table 2) under the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction on the North. From Figures 5, 6, and 7, the best laterals’ direction may be parallel to or normal on the North. There is an insignificant effect of the system configuration and lateral lines’ direction with farm sides or North on the B/C ratio (Figure 5). There is also no significant effect of the system configuration and lateral lines’ direction with on net returns (Figure 6). From Figure 7, the system’s configuration type has a small effect (around 5 %) on the net cultivated area. So, it could be considered that the B/C ratio, the net returns, and the net cultivated area are approximately the same trends with respect to the drip system configurations and laterals’ direction to the North. Also, it could be noticed that the arrangements of the long-life fruit trees based on all the maximum of B/C ratio, the annual net return, and net cultivated are different (see Table 5). Thus, the B/C ratio, annual net return, and the net cultivated area are not always the same selection basis. In other words, the fruit trees that give maximum B/C ratio not always give maximum net return or maximum net cultivated area. 2.50

B/C

2.00 1.50 1.00

0.00

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

0.50

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

Figure 5: B/C Ratios of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations.

*Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

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PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Net return (US$/ha)

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

Figure 6: Annual Net Return of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations.

52 51 50 49 48

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Net cultivated area (ha)

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

Figure 7: Net Cultivated Area of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations. Table 5: Long-life fruits based on the maximum economic bases. Fruit trees Apples Apricots Bananas Citrus Dates Figs Grapes Guavas Mangoes Olives Pears

Max. B/C Ratio Best Lateral’s configuration direction #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN

Max. Net Return Best Lateral’s configuration direction #1 NN #1 NN #1 NN #1 & #2 PN #1 PN No No #1 NN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 PN #1 NN

Max. Net Cultivated Area Best Lateral’s configuration direction #2 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 NN #1 & #2 PN #1 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 NN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 NN

3.2 EFFECT OF DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM ON MINIMUM ECONOMIC BASES Figure 8, 9, 10, 11 show the calculated total annual costs, initial capital cost, annual energy cost, and annual maintenance cost, respectively of the chosen trees (Table 2) under the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction on the North. The total annual costs are the summation of; equivalent annual system and land costs, annual operation cost (energy, labor, and maintenance), annual average production cost, and the equivalent annual cost of long-life trees for years’ preparation before full production. From Figure 8, it could be noted that the total annual costs for the chosen fruit trees have nearly insignificant effect with the two configurations and laterals’ direction. Further, from Figure 9, it could be noticed that system configurations type and laterals’ direction have a very high effect on the initial installation cost, especially for Bananas (around 50%). Furthermore,

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Total annual costs (US$/ha)

from Figure 10, it could be noted that the drip system configurations and laterals’ direction have a high effect on the annual energy cost especially for Bananas (around 20%). From Figure 11, it could be noted that the drip system configurations have a considerable effect on the annual maintenance cost. Further, laterals’ directions have a considerable effect on the annual maintenance except in Bananas (more 20% normal on the North). Also, the arrangements of the fruit trees are based on all the minimum of total annual costs, initial installation cost, annual energy cost, and annual maintenance cost are different (see Table 6). Therefore, the combination of the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction that gives maximum net return and/or maximum B/C ratio, not necessary to require the minimum total annual costs, nor minimum initial installation cost, nor minimum annual energy cost, nor minimum annual maintenance cost.

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

Figure 8: Total Annual Costs of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations. Initial installation costs (US$/ha)

2500 2000 1500 1000

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

500

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Annual energy costs (US$/ha)

Figure 9: Initial Installation Cost of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations.

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

Figure 10: Annual Energy Cost of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations. *Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2 PN1 PN2 NN1 NN2

Annual maintenance cost (US$/ha)

Apples

Apricots

Bananas

Citrus

Dates

Figs

Grapes

Guavas

Mangoes

Olives

Pears

Figure 11: Annual Maintenance Cost of chosen long-life fruit trees under drip irrigation and configurations.

Table 6: Long-life fruits based on the minimum economic bases. Fruit trees Apples Apricots Bananas Citrus Dates Figs Grapes Guavas Mangoes Olives Pears

Min. Total Annual Costs Best Lateral’s configuration direction #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN/NN

Min. Initial Installation Cost Best Lateral’s configuration direction #1 NN #1 NN #1 NN #1 & #2 PN #1 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 PN/NN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 & #2 PN #1 NN

Min. Annual Energy Cost Best Lateral’s configuration direction #1 NN #1 NN #1 NN #1 PN #1 PN #1 PN #2 PN #1 PN #1 PN #1 PN #2 NN

Min. Annual Maintenance Cost Best Lateral’s configuration direction #1 NN #1 NN #1 NN #1 PN, NN #1 PN #1 PN, NN #1 PN, NN #1 PN #1 PN #1 PN #1 NN

As mentioned earlier, the economic efficiency is central to the drip irrigation system. Development projects may focus on either the maximum B/C ratio or maximum net benefits from the development. Economic constraints may have an impact on economic efficiency and play an important role in selecting the system configurations type and their lateral’s direction. The conducted analyses through this study were summarized and listed in Table 7. Table 7 lists the best arrangements of the drip irrigation system based on the desired selection basis and the cultivated long-life fruit trees. Also, Table 7 lists the significant effect of the selection of drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction. Table 7: Effect summary of the drip irrigation system for long-life fruit trees on the economic bases.

No.

Selection Basis

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

B/C ratio Annual net return Total annual costs Net cultivated area Initial capital costs Annual Energy costs Maintenance costs

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

Significance of system configurations Very small (2%) Small (< 5%) Negligible (< 1%) Small (< 5%) Very high (> 20%) High (< 20%) Considerable (< 10%)

Significance of laterals’ direction Negligible (< 1%) Small (< 5%) Negligible (< 1%) Small (< 5%) Very high (> 20%) High (< 20%) Considerable (< 10%)

4. CONCLUSION It emanates from the findings of this study that the effect of the drip irrigation system with configurations and laterals’ direction for long-life fruit trees on the economic bases was varied. The outcome of this study was, based on the computer model TISD (Trickle Irrigation System Design). The model had been used with long-life fruit trees (apples, apricots, bananas, citrus, dates-palm, figs, grapes, guava, mangoes, olives, and pears) to meet with a desired economic goal. Based on the conducted economic bases study, the system’s configuration types of drip irrigation have varied effects on the B/C ratio, net returns, total annual costs, initial installation cost, maintenance cost, energy cost, and net cultivated area. Based on B/C ratio, annual net return, total annual costs, and net cultivated area, the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction have a very small effect for the selected long-life fruit trees. Furthermore, based on initial capital costs and annual energy costs, the drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction have a very high effect on the selected long-life fruit trees. The drip irrigation system configurations and laterals’ direction have a considerable effect on the annual maintenance costs. For the future extension of this study, the parametric study of (soil type, land slopes, high wind speed, climate, irrigation water quality, water source type, farm partition, nominal interest rates, raw land value, and energy and labor inflation) are suggested to be investigated their impacts on the B/C ratio of the drip irrigation system with different configurations and laterals’ direction.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL All relevant data are already included in this article.

6. REFERENCES Asmon, I., Rothe, R. (2006). The Economic Feasibility of Drip Irrigation in AFGHANISTAN: A Study Conducted for the U.S. Agency FOR International Development. Alternative Livelihoods Project – South (ALP/S), Final team report. Behera, B. P., Sahoo, N. (1998). Economic evaluation of a drip irrigation system in Orissa. Environment and Ecology, 16(2), 297-299. Bliesner, R. D., Keller, J. (1982). Diesel powered pumping for irrigation. 2nd edition Detroit, Michigan: Detroit Diesel Allison Division of General Motors Crop. Bresler, E. (1977). Trickle-Drip irrigation: Principles and application to soil-water management. Advances in Agronomy, 29, 343-393. Cetin, B., Ozer, H., Kuscu, H. (2004). Economics of drip irrigation for apple (Malus domestica) orchards in Turkey. New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science. 32(4), 349-354, DOI: 10.1080/01140671.2004.9514315 Cuykendall, A. M., White, G. B. (1998). Economics of Drip Irrigation for Apple Orchards in New York State. Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York. 14pp. Dhehibi, B., Salah, M. B., Frija, A., Aw-Hassan, A., El Ouhibi, H., Al Raisi, Y. M. (2018). Economic and Technical Evaluation of Different Irrigation Systems for Date Palm Farming System in the GCC Countries: Case of Oman. Canadian Center of Science and Education, Environment and Natural Resources Research. 8(3), 55-68. *Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

Doorenbos, J., Pruitt, W. (1992). Crop Water Requirements. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24. Rome, Italy. Ehret, D. L., Frey, B., Forge, T., Helmer, T. (2012). Effects of Drip Irrigation Configuration and Rate on Yield and Fruit Quality of Young Highbush Blueberry Plants. Hortscience. 47(3), 414–421. El-Attar, H. A., Merwad, M. A., Mostafa, E. A. M., Saleh, M.M.S. (2019). Yield, fruit quality and leaf mineral content of mango trees as affected by subsurface drip irrigation system. BIOSCIENCE RESEARCH. 16(1), 620-628. FAOSTAT, http://www.fao.org/faostat/en. García, I. F., Lecina, S., Ruiz-Sánchez, M. C., Vera, J., Conejero, W., Conesa, M. R., Domínguez, A., Pardo, J. J., Léllis, B. C., Montesinos, P. (2020). Trends and Challenges in Irrigation Scheduling in the Semi-Arid Area of Spain. Water. 12(785), doi:10.3390/w12030785. Hanson, B. R., Schwanki, L. J., Schulbach, K. F., Pettygove, G. S. (1997). A Comparison of furrow, surface drip and surface drip irrigation on lettuce yield and applied water. Agricultural Water Management, 33, 139-157. Keller, J., Bliesner, R. D. (1990). Sprinkle and trickle irrigation. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Book Co. Keller, J., Keller, A., Bliesner, D. (1988). Irrigation project simulation model for planting and design. Proceeding Sixth International Water Resources Association Congress on Water Resources, Ottawa, Canada. III, 127-136. Khalifa, W. M. A. (2020a). Computer Model for Trickle Irrigation System Design. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 11(7), 11A07U, 1-17. Khalifa, W. M. A. (2020b). An Economic Analysis of Crops Production using a Trickle Irrigation System. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 11(8), 11A8J, 1-13. Kumar, D. S., Palanisami, K. (2010). Impact of drip irrigation on the farming system: evidence from southern India. Agricultural Economics Research Review. 23. 265-272. Mandal, G., Kumar, S., Kumar, R., and Singh, R. (2007). Effect of Drip Irrigation and Plant Spacing on Yield, Quality and Economic Return of Guava (Psidium guajava L.) Grown in Saline Soil. Acta horticulturae. 735(735), 427-432, DOI: 10.17660/ActaHortic.2007.735.60 Mohammad, M. J., Zurai, S., Quasmeh, W., Papadopulos, I. (1999). Yield response and nitrogen utilization efficiency by drip irrigated potato. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 54, 243-249. Narayanamoorthy, A., Devika, N. (2017). Economic and resource impacts of drip method of irrigation on okra cultivation: an analysis of field survey data. Journal of Land & Rural Studies. 6(1), 15–33. Nassar, A. (2009). Comparison of Micro Irrigation Systems for Olive Trees. Journal of Agricultural Engineering. 26(1), 149-169. Rain Bird. (2018). Landscape Irrigation Price List. http://www.rainbird.com. Razzaq, A., Rehman, A., Qureshi, A. H., Javed, I., Saqib, R., Iqbal, M. N. (2018). An economic analysis of high efficiency irrigation systems in Punjab, Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 34(4), 818-826. Reddy, K. H. N., Kumar, K. A., Ramana, M. V. (2017). Design and Development of Drip Irrigation System Software in Visual Basic. International Journal of Agricultural Science and Research. 7(4), 339-346.

Walid M. A. Khalifa, Nabil A. A. Mahmoud

Sawa, A. P., Frenken, K. (2002). Irrigation Manual: Planning, Development, Monitoring & Evaluation of Irrigated Agriculture with Farmer Participation. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Volume IV, Module 9. Sub-Regional Office for East and Southern Africa (SAFR). Harare, Zimbabwe. Soil Conservation Service (SCS). (1993). Chapter 2 Irrigation Water Requirements. Part 623 National Engineering Handbook. United States Department of Agriculture. 210-vi-NEH Soussa, H. K. (2010). Effects of Drip Irrigation Water Amount on Crop Yield, Productivity and Efficiency of Water Use in Desert Regions in Egypt. Nile Basin Water Science& Engineering Journal. 3(2), 96-109. Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Fereres, E., Raes, D. (2012). Crop Yield Response to Water. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Irrigation and Drainage Paper 66. Rome, Italy. Tiwari, K. N., Reddy, K. Y. (1997). Economic analysis of trickle irrigation system considering planting geometry. Agricultural Water Management. 34(2), 195-206. Wilde, C., Johnson, J., Bordovsky, J. P. (2009). Economic analysis of subsurface drip irrigation system uniformity. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. 25(3), 1-5. Dr. Walid M. A. Khalifa is an Assistant Professor at Hail University, Saudi Arabia, and Fayoum University, Egypt. He received his BSc in Civil Engineering from Cairo University of Egypt, a PhD in Water Resources and Environmental Hydrology from Cairo University. His research interests include Water Quality and Hydrodynamics Modeling, Pressurized Irrigation Modeling, and Design of RC Water Structures.

Dr. Nabil A. A. Mahmoud is an Assistant Professor at Fayoum University, Egypt. He received his BSc in Civil Engineering from Cairo University of Egypt, a PhD in Irrigation and Hydraulics from Cairo University. His research interests include Pressurized Irrigation Modeling and Water Structures Design.

*Corresponding author (W.M.A.Khalifa) Tel:+966-504322771

khalifawalid@yahoo.com w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11Q

SPACE SYNTAX STUDY FOR VAKKO HEADQUARTERS AND POWER MEDIA CENTER IN ISTANBUL 1

Norhazwani Khairdzir , Yasser Arab , Ahmad Sanusi Hassan , 1 2 Rasha Saeed Abdulla Baangood , and Boonsap Witchayangkoon 1 2

School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA. Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 10 July 2019 Received in revised form 23 April 2020 Accepted 14 May 2020 Available online 28 May 2020

This paper discusses the science-based and human-focused approach of space syntax analysis with its levels of permeability and wayfinding to explain how the spatial layout of specific building typology influences the ways people use them. This research objective is to relate spatial configuration to its building typology, which in this case is a broadcast media centre, using space syntax analysis by the case study. Broadcast centres are stations that include radio, television and other electronic media outlets whose primary objective is to transmit information and entertainment news to the public. Space syntax is defined as a technique of describing and analyzing the relationship between spaces of urban areas and buildings (Jacoby, 2006). This research approaches by studying the layout plans of building with labelling spaces in alphanumeric and tabulated in a measurable scale graph figure that shows its level of permeability and wayfinding. In conclusion, the degree of permeability and wayfinding for broadcast media centres are more involved in wayfinding and less permeable for public users and staffs due to security purposes. Hence, designing the best layout for this building typology is vital as a guideline.

Keywords: Building permeability; Building wayfinding; Building spatial layout; Building typology; Spatial building configuration; Building circulation typology.

1. INTRODUCTION Space is one of the elements in the design of architecture (Ching, 2007) as spaces begin to be captured, enclosed, moulded and organized by solid elements of mass. Space is the void or the absence of mass that is experienced when a person enters a building and can be defined by visual of the floor, structures, walls and ceiling. The word syntax refers to the arrangement of words or phrases that creates a well-formed sentence that gives meaning in a language. The same goes to architecture; spaces should be arranged as such, it makes sense to people who use the building (Jacoby, 2006). *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.221

Designing floor plans and circulation for efficient orientation and navigation is one of the most omnipresent and complex problems in architectural design. A building’s distribution is the key to organizing layout and communication within spaces as it connects the exterior and interior areas and reflects the overall spatial arrangement of the structure. However, its efficiency depends on making the destination evident to the user, so that user can easily direct their movement towards their intended space (Natapov et al., 2015). Spatial layout of buildings influences the ways people use them and through space syntax analysis. Space syntax is said to be a theory of space and a set of analytical, quantitative and descriptive methods for analyzing the spatial formations in different forms such as; buildings, cities, interior spaces, landscapes, and others (Hillier et al., 1984; Hillier, 1996). Space Syntax is introduced as an attempt to produce a kind of knowledge that will help architects and designers to test, find solutions, and oversee implications and consequences with their design. (Dursun, 2007). Similarly, the roles of space syntax (Li et al., 2009). (1) It serves as a language for thinking and talking about space in the dialogue between architect and designed spaces. (2) It merges science-based knowledge into the design process, which establishes the core of “evidence-based design” (Turner et al., 2001). (3) It provides as tools for architects to explore ideas, understand the effect of their design and let them evaluate their design before-hand. (4) It gives a chance to architects to assess the designs as to how inhabitants will experience living in it.

This research objective is to compare layout plans of an existing building regarding users as to relate spatial configuration to its building typology of a broadcast media centre. Besides, this study is to understand the function of spaces of this building typology through space syntax analysis. Each area was labelled in numeric or alphanumeric while the information on the level of wayfinding and permeability is shown in a measurable scale graph figure to achieve the objective. Based on the graph figure, the analysis of each layout plans on the level of permeability and wayfinding is tabulated and discussed to compare similarities and differences through the user’s perspective. Due to limitations and restricted resources on the information about news and broadcast media centre buildings especially from locals, an abroad case study has been chosen that is the Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Centre in Istanbul, Turkey. However, the broadcast media centre in this case study is only located in the basement area and more for entertainment rather than news. Above the ground, floor plans shall be disregarded as it mostly consists of Vakko’s fashion house offices, which is not in the same typology as discussed in this research.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 DEFINITION OF BUILDING TYPOLOGY: NEWS AND BROADCAST MEDIA CENTRE The building typology to be discussed is the news and broadcast media centre. News can be defined as a newly received or noteworthy information on recent events (Oxford Dictionary, 2018b). Meanwhile, the news means material reported in newspapers or news periodical or on a newscast (Merriam-Webster. 2018). The word broadcast; noun by definition, is a television or radio transmission (Oxford Dictionary, 2018a). Hence, broadcast centres are stations that include radio,

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

television and other electronic media outlets whose primary objective is to transmit information and entertainment news to the public.

2.2 DEFINITION OF WAYFINDING

SPACE

SYNTAX:

LEVEL

PERMEABILITY

AND

Space syntax was pioneered by Bill Hillier and Julienne Hanson from University College London (UCL) during the 1970s. Both came to write about it in a book called “The Social Logic of Space” in 1981. (Space Syntax Network, 2018). Hillier defined space syntax as a technique of describing and analyzing the relationship between spaces of urban areas and buildings. Space syntax measures the quality of integration and connectivity of spaces within a building and represents it in a formalized graph-based accounts of spatial layout configuration into the architectural analysis (Li et al., 2009). The fundamental concept of space syntax analysis relies on the study of depth: 1) Level of permeability 2) Level of wayfinding

Permeability can be defined as to permit or restrict people or vehicles movement in a different direction or within the spaces inside a building. Examples for the level of permeability include public, semi-public, and private spaces. Wayfinding is a design system that guides people through the physical environment and enriches their experience and understanding of the space. Hence, through the space syntax analysis that building circulation and ease of wayfinding can be proven.

3. RESEARCH METHOD This research paper documents the level of permeability and wayfinding through space syntax analysis by comparing layout plans of an existing building as a case study. Hence, a qualitative analysis method was conducted to gain relevant data and information based on the level of permeability and wayfinding by using the Likert scale and measurable graph figures. Firstly, identify the building typology of case study through a reliable source. However, due to limitation and restricted resources on the information about news and broadcast media centre buildings especially from locals, an abroad case study has been chosen that is the Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Centre in Istanbul, Turkey. Previous literature reviews of related topics gained from websites and printed sources such as books, journals and articles are studied to obtain more information and understanding of space syntax analysis and also the building typology. After obtaining the necessary information on the case study, the layout plans are redrawn from the original copies with the aid of AutoCAD software and edit using Adobe Photoshop. The spaces within the layout plans are defined in numeric and alphanumeric labels such as S1, R1, 1, 2, 3 Lc, etc. Axial space conception will be used to read the layouts. Axial space is the longest line that chains convex polygons, a straight line linked to the notion of visibility and can be followed by foot (Jacoby, 2006). Based on the axial space, these labels are then transferred into measurable scale graph figures according to each floor levels, as shown in the example below: All the labelled spaces which are one syntactic step away from the root (entrance/exit) are placed on the first level in the graph, all the spaces two spaces away will be placed on the second level and so on (Jacoby, 2006). The depth is used as a measurable scale on the graph left axis based on the Likert *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.221

Scale (Table 1) to show the level of permeability and wayfinding of users in the building. Table 1: the Likert Scale for Space Syntax Analysis of measurable scale graph figures.

Likert Scale Numbering (-) 1 - 3 (-) 4 - 6 (-) 7 - 9

Level of Permeability

Level of Wayfinding

Public Semi-Public/Private Private

Easy Medium Hard

The negatives on the numbering of the Likert Scale only indicates the direction of the floor plans going underground. Meanwhile, the colours green, yellow and red represents the level of permeability from public > semi-public/private > private on the measurable scale graph figure. The analysis is to compare two primary users of the building, finding similarities and differences between visitors and staffs. These findings are then recorded as positive, negative or essential in providing a guideline in designing the best layout for this building typology.

3.1 CASE STUDY: VAKKO HEADQUARTERS AND POWER MEDIA CENTER, ISTANBUL, TURKEY (2010) Designed by REX architects (2010), Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Center is the headquarters for a Turkish fashion house that includes its office, showrooms, conference rooms, auditorium, museum and dining hall, as well as television studios, radio production facilities and screening rooms for Power Media Center, within a 9100m2 area, see Figures 1 and 2 (Archdaily).

Figure 1: Site Plan and Location Plan of Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Center in Istanbul. Source: https://www.google.com/maps

Figure 2: Front elevation of Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Center in Istanbul.

As stated before, the above-ground where the Vakkoâ€™s headquarters situated will be disregarded as it does not fit the building typology in this research. Hence, we will only be studying usersâ€™ level of permeability and wayfinding from ground level to basement area where the Power Media Centre is

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

located (Figure 3). Furthermore, the floor plans shown in Figures 4 and 5 shows the basement level and finally the site plan illustrated in Figure 6. While Table 2 shows the schedule of accommodation for ground floor level corresponding to its colours.

Figure 3: Section of Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Center in Istanbul.

Figure 4: Site Plan and Ground Floor Plan. Table 2: Schedule of Accommodation for Ground Floor Plan. Capacity (No. Number of Broadcast Media Centre Description of use Schedule by area category of People) rooms required Ground Floor Plan Guard House/Security 1 To house security Checkpoint Drop Off Drop off visitor/staff Reception Area 20 1 Information &registration desk for visitors Lobby 15 Waiting/meeting area Toilet/ Washroom 6 2 Use as washroom Staircase 3 Lift/Elevator 10 2

*Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.221

Figure 5: Basement Level 1 Floor Plan redrawn from the original copy. Table 3: Schedule of Accommodation for Basement Level 1 Floor Plan. Broadcast Media Centre Schedule by area category

Capacity (No. of Number of People) rooms required Basement Level 1 Plan

Reception Area

Lobby Administrative Office TV Production Office System Room Radio Production Studio Video Lounge Meeting Room Recording Room Power IT Room TV Studio Auditorium Control Room Library / Reading Room Library Office Power’s Cafe’ Vakko’s Café’ Serving Area Storage Cleaning Services Toilet / Washroom Power Technical Services OG Cells Security Surveillance Room Mail Screening Room AHU Room Vakko’s Museum Art Storage Staircase Lift/ Elevator

15 40 12 2 20 40 10 3 2 180 5 25 2 55 125 10

1 10 7 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 20

1 4

Description of use Information &registration desk for visitors Waiting/meeting area Office of administrative Office for producers Office & Radio stations Use for meetings/ conferences IT department office Stage Audience seating area Control the cameras & broadcast Reading area & resources center Office for librarians

Dish washing & cleaning

Security & CCTV rooms Mailing room 1

5 2

Table 3 shows the schedule of accommodation for basement level 1, corresponding to its colours. Table 4 shows the schedule of accommodation for basement level 2, corresponding to its colours.

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

Figure 6: Ground Floor Plan. Table 4: Schedule of Accommodation for Basement Level 2 Floor Plan. Broadcast Media Centre Schedule by area category Security Checkpoint TV Studio Private Dressing Room Makeup room Prop/ Customer Storage Showrooms Restroom Flexible Corridor Vakko IT Room TV Server Room Health Room Storage Technical Service Room Electric Room Locker’s Room (Men’s & Women’s) Mechanical/Electrical Rooms Mechanical/Life Safe Staircase Lift/Elevator

Capacity (No. of Number of People) rooms required Basement Level 2 Plan 2 1 1 3 2 5 1

3 2

Description of use To house security/ get access pass Changing room To store props and costumes Exhibition shows

2 2

Backstage/prop setup It department office To place server

2 2 2

Power supply

5 2

Power supply

4. RESULTS OF ANALYSIS 4.1 CASE STUDY: VAKKO HEADQUARTERS AND POWER MEDIA CENTER Before proceeding to the analysis, this research will involve two primary users of the building, the staffs and visitors. The staffs are the regular users of this type of building typology as they are mostly workers in departments such as administrative, production TV or radio, cleaners, security, and others. Their access to the building’s spaces depends on the job scope and positions apart from their work shifts. Visitors, on the contrary, are the most likely audience for a pre-recorded show or even guest on the talk show. They are usually permitted with ticketing or passes to enter the area such as the auditorium, live stage, or studio within a specific time. The analysis of site plan and ground floor plans are indicated with the numeric or alphanumeric labels with respective colours, as shown in Figure 7. *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.221

Figure 7: Site Plan and Ground Floor Plan is redrawn from the original copy. Source: https://www.archdaily.com/56149/vakko-headquarters-and-power-media-center-rex-2.

By referring to the floor plan in Figure 7, this is the analysis for the site plan.

Figure 8: Measurable Scale of the Site Plan

Figure 8 shows the level of permeability of users in context to the site plan. G1, G2 and Gp are located on 0 since it indicates the starting point. Whereas, other areas range of -1 to 1 on the Likert scale for the depth of space from entrance/exit. Since these spaces are still considered the public area, hence both visitors and staffs are allowed to use these spaces. The wayfinding for both staffs and visitors should be easy since the lines connection between spaces in the figure is direct and open; hence it is visible and can easily be noticed by users. Table 5 shows a summary of the analysis.

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

Table 5: Likert Scale for Space Syntax Analysis of each measurable scale graph for the site plan. Area BR1, BR2 OP, E1 & E2

The depth of Space form Entrance / Exit -1 1

Level of Permeability Public Public

Level of Wayfinding Easy Easy

Also based on Figure 7, the ground floor plan can be analyzed as follow:

Figure 9: Measurable Scale of the Ground Floor Plan

Figure 9 shows the level of permeability for users in the ground floor plan. The spaces labelled green in the legends indicates public areas as it lands on the scale between -1 and 3. These spaces are allowable for visitors and staffs to access. However, the spaces labelled as restrooms, staircases and lifts fall on the scale of 4, which indicates the semi-public area in yellow. These spaces need permission in order for visitor to access, whereas it is still free for staffs. Through Figure 9, the wayfinding starts to be less noticeable, and visitors might need direction and guide to find. This information is transferred as in Table 6, where the wayfinding level from easy to medium as users enters the spaces. Figure 10 shows the basement level 1 floor plan of the case study building, where the major part of the spaces for a broadcast media centre operates. Table 6: Likert Scale for Space Syntax Analysis of each measurable scale graph for ground floor plan Area S1 E1, E2 C1 1, C2, C3 2, 3, 4, La, S2a, S3a

The depth of Space form Entrance / Exit -1 1 2 3 4

Level of Permeability

Level of Wayfinding

Public

Easy

Semi-Public/Private

Medium

*Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

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Figure 10: Basement Level 1 Floor Plan Based on Figure 11, the level of permeability for users in the basement level 1 floor plan has become more complex as it is intended to make it less accessible by staffs and restricted to visitors. The users will find it harder on wayfinding through the floor plan without the aid of signage like how it is shown through the lines connecting between each space in Figure 10 and summarized in Table 7. Table 7: Likert scale for space syntax analysis of each measurable scale graph for basement level 1 floor plan Area S1, BR1, BR2 5, 59, 60

Depth of space from Entrance/Exit -1 -2

6, C16, 43, R2

-3

7, 8, C4, C5, C6, 31, 32, C10, 44, C12, S4, S5 S2a, La, 9, 10, C8, 33, C7, 28, 29, 30, 35, 36, 37, 38, C11, 45, C13 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 39, 40, 41, 42, 46, 47, 48, 49, 51, C14, Ss, R1 S3a,11, 12, 13, 14(a-d), 15(a-d), 16(a-d), 17(a-d), 18, 19, 20, 25a, 34, 50, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, C15 14e, 15e, 16e, 17e, 58

-4 -5

Level of Permeability

Level of Wayfinding

Public

Easy

- Visitors and staffs are accessible

-The user can easily recognize each space as it is more open and have a large area. Medium

Semi-Public/Private - Smaller rooms and unseen from public eyes. But giving privacy to staffs

-A bit harder for the user to find their ways as the layout gets complicated.

Semi-Private

Hard

- Only accessible by authorized staffs.

-Hidden inside rooms/space

-6

-7 -8

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

Figure 11: Measurable Scale of the Basement Level 1 Floor Plan

Figure 12 shows the basement level 2 floor plan of Power Media Center. Most services are located on this level, so supposedly this area should have been restricted.

*Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

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Figure 12: Basement Level 2 Floor Plan.

Figure 13: Section. Figure 14 shows the same complexity level of permeability for users in basement level 2 floor plan compared to basement level 1. From the floor plan of Figure 12, visitors and staff have to go through a security checkpoint (SC) before proceeding into the area. The wayfinding through the floor plan is designed to make visitors or staffs who are not supposed to be there find it hardest, as seen by the haywire lines in Figure 13. Through the floor plan, it can be read that narrow corridor with many doors and hidden rooms makes the user feel disoriented and uncertain of their destination. It was intended as such because the spaces are probably occupied for authorized personnel and significant guests except for the parking areas. All of this is tabulated in Table 8, as shown in Table 8.

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

Figure 14: Measurable Scale of the Basement Level 2 Floor Plan Table 8: Likert scale for space syntax analysis of each measurable scale graph for basement level 2 floor plan Area BR3 R2, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69 S4, S5, 61, 62, SC, Cf, C19, C20, Lb, S2b, 63, 64, C17, S6, C18, 75, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85 R1, Ss, 70, 49, 82a, 83a, 71, 72, 73, 74, 76 S3b, 77

The depth of Space form Entrance / Exit -2

Level of Permeability

Level of Wayfinding

Public

Medium

Semi-Public/Private

Hard

-3 -4 -5

- Only accessible by authorized staffs & guest

-6 -7

Private - Only accessible by authorized staffs

*Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

Hardest

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Figure 15: Measurable Scale of the Overall floor plans of Power Media Center

Figure 15 shows the measurable graph of the overall floor plans of Power Media Center.

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

5. DISCUSSION After analyzing all the layout plans and graphs, the level of permeability from Public (Green) > Semi-Public/Private (Yellow),> Private (Red) can be distinguished on layout plans as shown in Figure 15.

Ground floor plan

Basement level 1

Basement level 2 Figure 16: From (Top left) Ground floor plan, Basement level 1 and Basement level 2 floor plan.

Based on Figure 16, it is shown that some of the spaces fall back to its design intend such as the ground level and basement level 1 floor plans where the colours represent usersâ€™ permeability according to the spaces it was intended. However, as one enters the basement level 2 floor plan, it starts to show a different representation. The spaces were designed to be private, but the graphs show the contrary results as more semi-public/private spaces are seen. As seen in Figure 15 where the overall graphs are shown, the wayfinding for the users in such building typology is intended to be complicated due to tight security and safety reasons as broadcast media centres are prone to bomb and hostage or hijack threats. The design of Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Center is basically distinguishable in the level of permeability and wayfinding. The segregation between visitor and staffs access can be seen clearly. The negative about its design is there is no proper drop-off area, and it is design underground where there is limited natural daylight and ventilation. However, this building typology was intended not to create loopholes for threats to come inside the building, and that might be the sole purpose it was designed underground. The design shows that the architect has tackled this by creating a void that acts as a courtyard and also several air & light wells to the basement level. Another complex design to think is the circulation and accessibility for services from the loading to unloading areas into the buildings as these are considered visitors. *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

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6. CONCLUSION In conclusion, this research has shown a comparison of an existing layout plans using space syntax analysis for building typology such as broadcast media centre are more complicated in the level of wayfinding and less permeability, especially to public or visitors. For the staffs or workers, there is limited access to the spaces within the building due to security purposes. The segregation between visitor and staffs access can be seen clearly in the design of the case study building. This building typology was intended not to create loopholes for threats. Hence it was purposely designed to be underground. Due to limited natural daylighting and ventilation, the architect creates a void that acts as a courtyard and also several air & light wells. The use of space syntax analysis in designing a broadcast media centre is crucial as it helps understand the function of spaces which will help the designer indicate the best layout as guidelines for this building typology. Hence, designing the best functional layout for visitors and staffs separately according to public> Semi-public/private > Private is essential. Therefore, such a link between building circulation and expected ease of wayfinding will be able to assist designers in anticipating the cognitive abilities and limitations of building users.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Information can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES

Ching, F. DK (2007). Architecture: Form, Space and Order. 3rd Ed., 93-102, US: John Wiley & Sons. Dursun, P. (2007). Space Syntax in Architectural Design. Proceedings, 6th International Space Syntax Symposium, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, 056.1- 056.12. Encyclopedia Britannica. (2018). Architecture: Space and Mass. http://www.britannica.com/topic/architecture/Space-and-mass Hillier, B. (1996). Space is the Machine: a configurational theory of architecture (Cambridge University Press). Hillier, B., Hanson, J., & Peponis, J. (1984). What do we mean by building function?. E & FN Spon Ltd. Jacoby, K. (2006). What is Space Syntax? Does The Urban Form of The City Affect The Level of Burglary and Crime? Seminar of Master Architectures and Cities in The face of Globalization, Royal Institute of Architecture, Stockholm. Retrieved from http://www.paris-belleville.archi.fr/enseignants/mademi/De/Participants/page25/ Li, Y.; Lertlakkhanakul, J.; Lee, S.; Choi, J. (2009). Design with Space Syntax Analysis Based on Building Information Model: Towards an Interactive Application of Building Information Model in Early Design Process. Tidafi, T.; Dorta, T. (eds). Proceedings of CAADFutures 2009, Montreal, 501- 514. Merriam-Webster (2018). News Definition. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/news Natapov, A.; Kuliga, S.; Dalton, R. C.; Hรถlscher, C. (2015). Building Circulation Typology and Space Syntax Predictive Measures. Proceedings, 10th International Space Syntax

N.Khairdzir, Y.Arab, A.Sanusi Hassan, R.Saeed A. Baangood, B.Witchayangkoon

Symposium, London, pp.030:1- 030:16. Oxford Dictionary. (2018a). Definition of the word Broadcast. http://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/broadcast Oxford Dictionary. (2018b). Definition of the word News. http://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/news REX. (2010). Vakko Headquarters and Power Media Center. Retrieved from https://www.archdaily.com/56149/vakko-headquarters-and-power-media-center-rex-2 Turner, A., M. Doxa, D. O’Sullivan, and A. Penn. 2001. From isovists to visibility graph: A methodology for the analysis of architecture space. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 28(1): 103–121. Norhazwani Khairdzir obtained her Master of Architecture from the School of Housing, Building, and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM).

Dr. Yasser Arab is a Senior Lecturer in Architecture at School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). He obtained his Bachelor of Architecture from Ittihad Private University, Aleppo, Syria. He obtained a Ph.D. in Sustainable Architecture from USM, Penang, Malaysia, his research focused on the Environment Performance of Residential High-Rise Buildings’ Façade in Malaysia. He teaches Studio for first year student and involved in supervising student of Master of Architecture and Urban Design. He is a Registered Architect in the Syrian Engineers Union.

Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan is Professor in Architecture Programme at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. He obtained a Bachelor and Master of Architecture degrees from University of Houston, Texas, USA, and a PhD degree focusing on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design Development for Southeast Asia from University of Nottingham, UK. His research encompass Urban Design, Studio Architecture, History and Theory of architecture and Computer Aided Design (CAD)

Rasha Saeed Baangood is a Lecturer at Architectural Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Aden. She obtained her Bachelor’s degree in Architectural Engineering from Aden University, Aden, Yemen. She was awarded a Master’s degree in Architectural Engineering from Jordan University of Science and Technology (JUST), Jordan. She is a PhD student at School of Housing, Building and Planning, USM.

Dr.Boonsap Witchayangkoon is an Associate Professor of Department of Civil Engineering at Thammasat University. He received his B.Eng. from the King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi with Honors. He continued his PhD study at University of Maine, USA, where he obtained his PhD in Spatial Information Science & Engineering. His interests involve Applications of Emerging Technologies to Engineering.

Note: The original of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at the 4th International Conference-Workshop on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design (ICWSAUD2019) conference held in Penang, Malaysia during 24-26 June 2019. *Corresponding author (Yasser Arab) Email: yasserarab2005@yahoo.com

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PAPER ID: 11A11R

CONSTRUCTION COST OVERRUN RISK ANALYSIS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE: CASE OF A SIX-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING IN THAILAND 1,2*

Damrongsak Rinchumphu , Chonticha Karnjanamukdar , 2 3 Kasina Uboncharoen , Wacharapong Prasarnklieo 1

Center of Excellence for Natural Disaster Management (CENDIM), Chiang Mai University, THAILAND. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, THAILAND. 3 Department of Architecture and Planning, Faculty of Architecture, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, THAILAND. 2

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 14 February 2020 Received in revised form 14 April 2020 Accepted 15 May 2020 Available online 28 May 2020

This study aimed to analyze construction cost overrun risks related to design guidelines to prevent possible risks. Construction cost overrun risk in six-storey office building construction projects was emphasized. This research mainly aimed to analyze the construction budget risks from the variance in material costs and wages using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique. This research considered four categories of variables, consisting of the cement price index, steel price index, other material price index (except cement and steel), and consumer price index of Thailand, over 60 months from November 2014 until October 2019, with reference to the Thai Ministry of Commerce. The results showed that the construction cost overruns of a six-storey office building construction with a budget of 248 million Baht was equivalent to 4%, which meant that the risk was equal to 9.9 million Baht. The overall result from this research could assist developers as a reference for project budget management to manage the projects’ financial risk, and developers or designers could cite the data for material proportion design to minimize the project construction cost risk.

Keywords: Construction cost risk analysis; BOQ analysis; Risk of cost variation; Material Price variation; Construction project cost overruns; Office building construction; Price index distribution pattern; Construction budget management.

1. INTRODUCTION The construction sector is continuously growing, and it is considered as an important strategic industry that drives Thailand's economy and society. The keys to a good construction project are cost, time, and quality. One important factor is "construction cost", which drives the construction project to success or failure (Afzal et al., 2018). Good and accurate cost planning will lead to smooth project management during the construction period (Cho et al., 2010; Shi et al., 2014). Otherwise, if the cost management plan is mistaken, it may result in the project being at risk of *Corresponding author (D.Rinchumphu). Tel: +66-95-9959519 Email: damrongsak.r@cmu.ac.th

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construction cost overruns from the anticipated budget, which may lead to many problems. Thus, construction cost overrun risk analysis is a method that helps to analyze the risk possibilities, occurred with projects for decision making and reserve planning in case of exceeding the construction budget so the project can be completed (Memon et al., 2011; Sovacool et al., 2014). Cost overruns are the extra expenses from the anticipated construction budget, which can be due to various factors, including - Inadequate structure management, which means some parts of the work are missed resulting in a false prediction that leads to a lower budget than needed. - Lack of clear budget framework for each contract which can lead to uncontrollable costs in alignment with reality. - Delay of a project which may be caused by changes in construction and installation plan, resulting in increased expenses. - Change in material price and wage which varies due to economic conditions that affect the costs and profits of the project. - Bringing new technologies into construction work to improve the quality, resulting in higher costs. - Unexpected incidents, such as disasters, which cause project disruption resulting in delays and more expenses.

Moreover, Tammahagin (2011) and Yiangyong & Tochaiwat (2014) presented that cost overrun risks in the Thai building construction industry mostly were relevant to the variance in the material price and wages, which will be the main content of this study. To represent one of the main commercial buildings in Thailandâ€™s market, a six-storey office building (Figure 1) was chosen as a sample to prove the procedures and appropriate methods in construction cost overrun risk analysis from the variance of the material price and wages.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW To gain an overall understanding of the theories and principles used in the study, the literature review, therefore, consists of contents related to the material price index and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique as follows.

2.1 MATERIAL PRICE INDEX The material price index of this research could be divided into four categories 1. Cement price index (C) is the price of products made from cement, consisting of the foundation pile, reinforced concrete, concrete floor, concrete beam, concrete block, rough concrete, concrete paver block, Portland cement, mixed cement, and masonry cement, etc. 2. Steel price and product index (S) is the price of all kinds of steel used in construction, consisting of steel bars, deformed bars, round steel, wires used for binding steel, angle steel, and steel pipes, etc. 3. Material price index (M) is the price of other construction materials that are non-cement or steel, including all other materials used for construction, consisting of wood, electrical equipment, plumbing, sanitary ware, plastering materials, tiles, and other construction materials.

Damrongsak Rinchumphu, Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, Kasina Uboncharoen, Wacharapong Prasarnklieo

4. Consumer price index (I) is the index illustrating the changes in products and services, which include increased wages and salaries in line with rising product and service prices as wages and salaries affect decisions related to purchasing goods and services. Thus, the consumer price index of the country is set as a representative of the labor cost in this research.

(a)

(b)

Figure 1: Floor plan and side of building (a) Elevation, (b) Typical Floor Plan

2.2 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION (MCS) TECHNIQUE The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique is a popular tool and an essential technique in risk or uncertain incident analysis. This method creates project patterns or policies via computer analysis and then examines the resultsâ€™ probability of obtaining the various variables that are changing at the same time. Generally, probability analysis is a highly effective tool for research or project problem investigation, which does not only have a single solution; however, the randomization of the MCS pattern is also considered another easy-to-use format for probability *Corresponding author (D.Rinchumphu). Tel: +66-95-9959519 Email: damrongsak.r@cmu.ac.th

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analysis. This analysis can present the results of risks and uncertainties, which can be explained by the probability distribution. This also includes the use of MCS in construction risk analysis or possibilities in investment decisions (Ahiaga-Dagbui & Smith, 2014; Chang & Ko, 2017). MCS is defined as a procedure for obtaining an approximate numerical solution using a random set of numbers. It is a coherent estimation of random variables with a known distribution, but the results are too complex to be determined by mathematical methods. Random numbers in many cases are generated by a computer program in accordance with the distribution of the possible assumptions of variances and repeated calculations through the pattern until the form of the distribution is the result. Most of the possibility analysis simulation is to explain if every event can be as described by three characteristics: 1) Optimistic, 2) Pessimistic and 3) Most likely (Mooney, 1997). The MCS procedures can be summarized as follows: 1. Define variances in situation simulation, objectives, and validation of results obtained from the simulation. 2. Anticipate the distribution pattern of the variables in the situation simulation by assigning it to the actual distribution of the data sets (custom distribution). 3. Create random data from a set of variances to simulate situations from forecasting the probability of the data distribution. 4. Calculate the result from the set of variances using the method in 3. 5. Repeat the calculations in steps 3 and 4, at least 1,000 times. 6. Present the results of the data obtained from the calculation via graphs or diagrams showing the probability distribution.

Results from the simulation can be shown in graphs or diagrams illustrating the probability distribution according to the result examination set initially (Nakaya, 1999).

3. METHOD The research methodology consisted of four procedures: principles/tools, data, expected results, and analysis methods as shown in Table 1. Table 1: Research procedure Procedures Principles/tools Data Expected Results Analysis of Procedures 1. Bill of Quantities Material Check Cost and proportion List and expense Analyze the expenses (BOQ) analysis of 6-story Form analysis of materials in proportion for each by category office building various categories category of work in project 2. Variance analysis of Principles of Changes in the material The variance of each Analyze the variance building material price Variance price index in four category index in four categories Analysis categories for 60 months 3. Analysis of initial A computer Distribution of four Distribution of each Analyze the distribution variable distribution program called categories of the material category ModelRisk price index for 60 months 4. Analysis of A computer Simulation of the Risks of construction cost Monte Carlo Construction Cost program called variance of material price overruns for six-storey Simulation index affecting project Overruns Risk ModelRisk office building project

The data in Table 1 can be explained in detail via the following procedures: Procedure1 - BOQ analysis of the six-story office building project by dividing the cost of each job category, which was divided into four categories:

Damrongsak Rinchumphu, Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, Kasina Uboncharoen, Wacharapong Prasarnklieo

concrete, steel, other construction materials (excluding concrete and steel), and wages. Procedure2 - Variance analysis of construction material price index in four categories by analyzing the variance from November 2014to October 2019 (Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, 2020). Procedure3 - Distribution pattern analysis of the initial variables using the ModelRisk program as a tool to help analyze the distribution pattern that is the most suitable for the data set (Habibi, 2017; Vose, 2010). Procedure 4 - Construction cost overruns risk analysis using MCS via ModelRisk to analyze the relation between construction cost overrun risk and variance of the material price index for both project overall and classified work categories (Habibi, 2017).

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION Regarding the data collected from the BOQ of six-storey office building in Bangkok, the results could be divided into three issues.

4.1 BILL OF QUANTITIES OF 6-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING For the BOQ of the six-storey office building project, the researcher performed the analysis by dividing the construction cost into four categories. Table 2: List and expense proportion for each category Categories

Concrete (C)

Steel (S)

Materials (M)

Labor (I)

Total Cost

Amount (Baht) Percent

18,184,607.20 7%

14,209,711.57 6%

170,470,371.61 69 %

45,117,700.28 18 %

247,982,390.66 100 %

The analysis result obtained from dividing the construction cost into each work category was to consider the variance of the construction cost for only four variables by referring to the calculation formula of the Escalation Factor (K) of the construction work (Chooprasit, 2001; Jaruwanno, 2011). The work categories were concrete, steel, other materials (excluding concrete and steel), and wages. For the concrete and steel categories, only expenses related to the project were considered. All other materials were classified into the other material category. The analysis result of the BOQ of the six-storey office building project consisted of a list and expense proportion as shown in Table 2, presenting the changes in the construction proportion of each category when changes in the material price occurred, which could lead to construction cost overruns.

4.2 VARIANCE IN MATERIAL PRICE INDEX IN FOUR CATEGORIES For the study of the material price variances, the researcher cited the material price index from the Ministry of Commerce by collecting data from November 2014 until October 2019 for 60 months. The variance in the material price index that could affect the project is shown in Figure 2. Regarding the variance result analysis, it was found that the category with the highest variance was steel, while the secondary was concrete. If the variance was considered, the procurement of such materials might be emphasized and prioritized by the risk management over other types. Additionally, when considering the material proportion of each category shown in Table 2, it was found that the proportions of the steel and concrete categories were not as much as the other categories. After many irritations of the MCS, the risk analysis outcome was more accurate, *Corresponding author (D.Rinchumphu). Tel: +66-95-9959519 Email: damrongsak.r@cmu.ac.th

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resulting in the ability to effectively control the material prices. 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 0

Concrete (C)

Steel (S)

Other Materials (M)

Consumer price index (I)

Figure 2: Variances in material price indexes 60 months (November 2014 to October 2019), with October 2019 set as the base.

4.3

DISTRIBUTION PATTERN OF INITIAL VARIABLES

The distribution pattern of the initial variables was obtained using data from the change in the material price index from the Ministry of Commerce over the past 60 months. After that, the distribution pattern comparison process was utilized through VOSE ModelRisk as a user interface. The program displayed possible distribution patterns of the data set as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: The user interface of distribution pattern comparison for the data set. Figure 3 presents the user interface of the distribution pattern comparison of the possible set of

Damrongsak Rinchumphu, Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, Kasina Uboncharoen, Wacharapong Prasarnklieo

data selected by the program. The suitability of the data presentation was not equal. Therefore, the program processed the set of data and possible distribution patterns to find the most suitable pattern by sorting the most appropriate patterns from top to bottom. The distribution pattern of the initial variables processed by ModelRisk for the cement price index distribution was a log-normal distribution, while the pattern of the steel price index, index distribution, and distribution pattern of the consumer price index of the country had normal distributions, as shown in Figure 4.

Log-normal distribution pattern of the cement price index

b) Normal distribution pattern of the steel price index

Normal distribution pattern of the consumer price Normal distribution pattern of the material index price index Figure 4: Distribution patterns of four categories price index The processing of the ModelRisk helped to quickly identify the most suitable distribution pattern through the Fit Model system, which was very useful when compared to the analysis by continuously sampling the distribution pattern to find the most suitable pattern for the data. Obtaining the appropriate distribution pattern could reduce errors or deviations in the analysis results and increase the accuracy of the simulation so that the risk analysis results for the construction cost overrun were most precise since the different patterns of the results from the MCS method were dissimilar and might lead to incorrect risk analysis results. Regarding the distribution pattern analysis of the four variables, there were two patterns: normal distribution and log-normal distribution. The distribution pattern of the initial variables had *Corresponding author (D.Rinchumphu). Tel: +66-95-9959519 Email: damrongsak.r@cmu.ac.th

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.222

different monthly price index data, which caused the histogram to collect data for each category with different shapes. However, when the distribution pattern was considered, some work categories also had the same distribution pattern relatedness. The distribution pattern of each index was connected to the probability simulation process. After 1,000 randomization irritations, the set of the data was chosen at random by the analysis assistance program following the distribution of the analyzed data. The random results depended on the distribution pattern of the initial variables in each work category and addressed the analysis using the ModelRisk as an analysis tool.

4.4 CONSTRUCTION COST OVERRUN RISK FOR SIX-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING The program displayed possible distribution patterns of the data set as shown in Figure 3. The analysis of the construction cost overrun risk for the project was the result of the comparison between the altered material price for the project and the construction budget, and the possible risk is simulated via the MCS method and construction budget of the project. The variances for all four material price indexes for 60 months period were the initial variables for the probability simulation. The variance of the material price index was set according to the distribution pattern analyzed via the ModelRisk to obtain the overrun cost for the six-storey office building project, and the program matched them randomly according to the number of rounds specified. The changes in the total construction cost and continuous change in each category could be seen according to the constants of the categories, which increased and decreased from the original construction budget. This research was randomized 10,000 times, and the analysis results are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Cumulative frequency and simulation histogram According to Figure 5 and the analysis of each category, it was found that the price variance in Thailand was quite large, which directly affected the project budget. It was also found that the overrun of the budget at the optimistic 95th percentile was equal to 1.04, representing 4%, which meant that the risk value is 9,919,295 Baht. Therefore, the results did not only reflect that the material price variances and wages were important to the construction of the building, but it also showed methods for risk analysis used as a practical guideline for further projects in the future.

Damrongsak Rinchumphu, Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, Kasina Uboncharoen, Wacharapong Prasarnklieo

4.5 DISCUSSION The construction cost overrun risk analysis for the six-storey office building through Monte Carlo Simulation using ModelRisk helped in the analysis of the material variance factors and wages based on data from the variance in the history of the price index over the past 60 months. It was found that after 10,000 rounds of simulation, the total construction cost of the project was 247,982,390 Baht. The most likely variance in the material price index for the overrun cost was 1.04, reflecting an allowance at 4%, which meant, the construction cost overrun risk value was 9,919,295 Baht. However, when comparing the result to Tammahagin (2011), in which the cost overrun risk value for a 23-storey condominium was 6%, the 2% difference in the correction (COR) values could be due to different building categories, office building and residential building as these have dissimilar components, for example, the number of bathrooms per building area or passenger lifts. Besides, the difference in the height certainly affected the unequal composition of the material and construction cost proportion. Nevertheless, a 2% difference was not a large difference, and preliminary analysis could be performed to reveal that the study results reflected an appropriate method for an efficient analytical process. However, the construction cost overrun risk analysis was beneficial for the best budget management to allocate the budget to cover all possible risks for all factors that could cause the cost overruns, which are similar to the results of Yiangyong & Tochaiwat (2014). Nevertheless, if the factors affecting the construction costs could be increased, such as inadequate structure management, the lack of a clear budget framework for each contract, could lead to delays, bringing new technologies to construction and unexpected incidents, the construction cost risks, which could be more accurately analyzed (Aziz et al., 2013; Vu et al., 2016).

5. CONCLUSION This study has analyzed the construction cost overrun risk for a six-storey office building construction project, using construction budget risks from the variance in material costs and wages via the Monte Carlo Simulation technique. This study focuses on four variables, including the cement price index, steel price index, other material price index (except cement and steel), and consumer price index of Thailand, over 60 months from 2014-2019, announced by the Thai Ministry of Commerce. The results showed that for the case study of a six-storey office building with a budget of 248 million Baht, the construction cost overruns was 4%, equaling risk 9.9 million Baht. The overall result from this research is useful for developers as a reference for project budget management to manage the projectsâ€™ financial risk, and developers or designers could cite the data for material proportion design to minimize the project construction cost risk.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research work was financially supported in part by Chiang Mai University. *Corresponding author (D.Rinchumphu). Tel: +66-95-9959519 Email: damrongsak.r@cmu.ac.th

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.222

8. AUTHOR RESPONSIBILITIES Damrongsak Rinchumphu conceived and planned the experiments. Chonticha Karnjanamukdar and Kasina Uboncharoen carried out the experiments and contributed to sample preparation. Damrongsak Rinchumphu, Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, and Kasina Uboncharoen and Wacharapong Prasarnklieo contributed to the interpretation of the results. Damrongsak Rinchumphu took the lead in writing the manuscript. All authors provided critical feedback and helped shape the research, analysis, and manuscript.

REFERENCES

Afzal, F., Yunfei, S., Sajid, M., & Afzal, F. (2018). Risk assessment of first overseas mass rapid transit project: promulgating interpretive qualitative paradigm for China Pakistan construction concession. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 9(4), 253-269. Ahiaga-Dagbui, D. D., & Smith, S. D. (2014). Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining. Construction management and economics, 32(7-8), 682-694. Aziz, A. A. A., Memon, A. H., Rahman, I. A., & Karim, A. T. A. (2013). Controlling cost overrun factors in construction projects in Malaysia. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, and Technology, 5(8), 2621-2629. Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices of Thailand. (2020). Construction price index. www.price.moc.go.th/th/node/211 Retrieved January 2020, Chang, C.-Y., & Ko, J.-W. (2017). New approach to estimating the standard deviations of lognormal cost variables in the Monte Carlo analysis of construction risks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(1), 06016006. Cho, K., Hong, T., & Hyun, C. (2010). Integrated schedule and cost model for repetitive construction process. Journal of management in engineering, 26(2), 78-88. Chooprasit, S. (2001). A study of factors affecting construction material price index for the development of improvement guidelines. Master of Engineering Thesis, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand. Habibi, R. (2017). Applications of Vose ModelRisk software in simulated data. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 1-10. Jaruwanno, E. (2011). An approach in optimizing operation of the Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices: A case study of business expectation index. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Memon, A. H., Rahman, I. A., & Azis, A. A. A. (2011). Preliminary study on causative factors leading to construction cost overrun. International Journal of Sustainable Construction Engineering and Technology, 2(1). Mooney, C. Z. (1997). Monte Carlo simulation. 116, Sage publications. Nakaya, T. (1999). A study of risk analysis tools and techniques application to BOT projects. Thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand. Shi, L., Ye, K., Lu, W., & Hu, X. (2014). Improving the competence of construction management consultants to underpin sustainable construction in China. Habitat International, 41, 236-242. Sovacool, B. K., Gilbert, A., & Nugent, D. (2014). An international comparative assessment of construction cost overruns for electricity infrastructure. Energy Research & Social Science, 3,

Damrongsak Rinchumphu, Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, Kasina Uboncharoen, Wacharapong Prasarnklieo

152-160. Tammahagin, S. (2011). Risk management guidelines of construction materials cost for design and development process of middle-income condominium project in Bangkok area. Built Environment Inquiry Journal, 10, 106-116. Vose, D. (2010). Fitting distributions to data. Vu, H. A., Wang, J., Min, L., Mai, S. H., & Nguyen, H. P. (2016). Research on cost overrun risk of construction phase of Vietnam highway international contracting project. Engineering, 8(3), 86-98. Yiangyong, S., & Tochaiwat, K. (2014). Factors influencing the construction cost overruns of low rise apartment projects. Paper presented at the 5th Graduate Integrity (GI 5). Dr. Damrongsak Rinchumphu is a researcher at Center of Excellence for Natural Disaster Management (CENDIM) and a lecturer at Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. He got a Doctoral degree in Civil Engineering and Built Environment from Queensland University of Technology, Australia. His research focuses on Sustainability and Technology in Civil and Construction Management.

Chonticha Karnjanamukdar was a Bachelor's degree student at Civil Engineering Program, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. Her research is in the field of Construction Cost and Risk Analysis on Several Building Projects.

Kasina Uboncharoen was a Bachelor's degree student at Civil Engineering Program, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. His research is in the field of Construction Cost and Risk Analysis on Several Building Projects.

Wacharapong Prasarnklieo is an Assistant Professor at Department of Architecture and Planning, Faculty of Architecture, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Thailand. He got a Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, and a Master of Engineering in Civil Engineering from Thammasat University, Thailand. His research focuses on Structural Engineering and Construction Management.

*Corresponding author (D.Rinchumphu). Tel: +66-95-9959519 Email: damrongsak.r@cmu.ac.th

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.222

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11S

STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND 1

Kwanchanok Oonta-on , Uruya Weesakul 1 2

and Nkrintra Singhrattna

Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND. Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, Ministry of Interior, THAILAND.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 20 February 2020 Received in revised form 01 May 2020 Accepted 11 May 2020 Available online 26 May 2020

During the past decades, Thailand has faced flood and drought problems caused by the effects of global climate change which directly affected rainfall-runoff and water allocation for all demands. This research aims to study the relationships between rainfall in the study area and large-scale atmospheric variables at the different levels from surface level to 10-mb level at lead time 4-15 months. The predictors were identified to develop a 3-month rainfall forecast model to support water resources management. The model evaluations using the leave-one-out technique were evaluated by the goodness-of-fit of statistics and probability density function (PDF) of observed rainfall. The results revealed that the observed data could be preserved to the estimated data for the goodness-of-fit technique and the PDF technique, observed and predicted rainfall were classified into five categories (namely: extremely dry, dry, normal, wet and extremely wet respectively), represented the maximum efficiency in pre-monsoon season (May-June-July) and minimum model efficiency in monsoon season (August-September-October) approximately 42.5% and 31.7% respectively.

Keywords: Stochastic hydrologic model; Climate change; Rainfall forecast model; Atmospheric variables; K-nearest neighbor

Disciplinary: Water Resources Engineering Environmental Climate Change, Sustainability.

and

Management,

1. INTRODUCTION Over the past decades, many regions around the world have been exposed to severe and frequent natural disasters caused by global climate change such as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, extremely severe cyclonic storm Nargis in Myanmar during 2008, the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti, an El Niño event caused a drought in some parts of Southern Africa in late 2015 and during 2018–20 Mozambique drought. Although some regions have not yet experienced extreme events or severe disasters, they have to face large-scale atmospheric variabilities such as *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

more floods and droughts. Hence, large-scale atmospheric variability also affects many areas of the world. Many studies reveal the relationship between large-scale atmospheric and rainfall variability (Loo et al., 2014; Mamombe et al., 2016; Barcikowska et al.; 2018; Sipayung et al., 2018). Also, the studies of El NiĂąo and La NiĂąa events impact on rainfall variability in many countries (Bridhikitti, 2017; Ueangsawat, 2015; Li et al., 2019). Likewise, many regions of Thailand have experienced flood and drought problems caused by large-scale atmospheric variability. Its impacts on Thailand are prolonged droughts, decreased agricultural, severe ďŹ‚ooding, health-related issues and the drought also challenges over water resource management within the region (Marks, 2011). Uncertainty of climate change was studied in Khon Kaen Province Thailand, the results showed that rainfall patterns were changed with longer high intense dry seasons following by shorter high intense rainy seasons. It has been found in that study that explicit consideration of climate change did not exist and that water availability patterns will continue the same as the past results (Friend and Thinphanga, 2018). Studies of impacts of climate change on rainfall in Thailand were done in various regions, for example, in the upper Chao Phraya river basin interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall were analyzed (Singharattana et al., 2005; Singharattana et al., 2013) and the rainfall variability of four basins in the north, northeast, coast east and south of Thailand (Weesakul et al., 2013; Weesakul and Yodpongpiput, 2015; Weesakul and Oonta-on, 2015). In several years, the statistical model applied for rainfall forecast models are quite popular and widely used because it can be used easily and not complicated. Many statistical model have been developed for making predictions in different regions around the world. Various researches related to forecasting rainfall by using the relationship of large-scale atmospheric variables (LAV) and rainfall were also developed with the effort to offer the accuracy deterministic results as much as possible. For example, linear and non-linear models are also widely used and applied for seasonal forecasting (Ansari, 2013, Badr et al, 2015; Djibo et al, 2015; Hossain et al, 2018). The main limitation of the linear model is the assumption of linearly separable and assumes that the relationship is a straight-line. The non-linear model provides a better fit because it is both unbiased and produces smaller errors. An artificial neural network (ANN) is a non-linear model (Badr et al., 2013, Rasel et al., 2016). Disadvantages of the ANN models are complicated models, need more data to train and unexplained behavior of the network. Compared to an ANN model, the regression model is easier to explain and understand. The k-nearest neighbor algorithm (k-nn) is an interesting technique applied for hydrological models because it is a non-linear and non-parametric model. In nature, the rainfall prediction cannot be specified exactly for one result because of the uncertainty of climate. So the stochastic modeling technique was selected to solve for the hydrologic problems rather than the statistic modeling technique. Singharattana et al. (2012) studied hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by LAV (i.e. the surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), surface zonal wind (SXW) and surface meridian wind (SYW) using the modified k-nn model. The results indicated the long-lead forecasting ability of the modified k-nn model for rainfall in the Ping River Basin is an impressive result that can be applied to manage water resources and develop long term plans for the reservoir. The modified k-nn was developed to forecast rainfall in the Mun and Chi River Basin, Thailand. Its performance reveals that the model can predict seasonal rainfall and providing sufficient information for appropriate cropping

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

pattern planning in the area (Weesakul et al., 2014, Weesakul et al., 2016). It is interesting to explore the capability of the modified k-nn model in forecasting seasonal rainfall in other river basins with different hydrological characteristics. This study aims to develop a modified k-nn model to forecast seasonal rainfall over Klong Yai River Basin using LAV as predictors.

Figure 1: Klong Yai River Basin, Thailand.

2. STUDY AREA AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA Klong Yai River Basin is a tributary of the Eastern River Basin, located on the east coast of the Gulf of Thailand between 12°38’-13°00’N latitude and 101°00’-101°40’E longitude covering an area of 1,804 km2, as shown in Figure 1. Most areas of the Klong Yai River Basin are in Rayong province and some parts are in Chonburi province. Its topography is mostly a coastal plain. The upper part of the basin is a corrugated plateau and hill. The main river basin is the Rayong or Klong Yai River, which consists of many branches flowing into the Gulf of Thailand. The climate of the Klong Yai River Basin is tropical monsoon which is under the influence of southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon. Wet and dry season caused by seasonal shift in winds or monsoon; the tropical rain belt brings additional rainfall during the monsoon season. The transition period of the northeast to southwest monsoon starts from mid-February to mid-May. After that, it has heavy rain due to the influence of the southwest monsoon originating in the Indian Ocean from May to October. The average temperature since 1981-2017 equals 29°C. The winter season begins in November and ends in February influenced by the eastern monsoon and carries cool air mass from upper China to cover *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

Thailand resulting in the average temperature in the winter since 1981-2017 equal to 26.9Â°C. Summer starts from March to April and the average temperature is 29.4Â°C. The monthly cumulative rainfall calculated from the amount of daily rainfall data from four stations in the Klong Yai River Basin ranged from 1976-2017, collected and published by the Meteorological Department. The average monthly rainfall (Figure 2) shows the beginning and the preliminary peak of rainfall in May is 176.8 mm. and slightly decreases in July (the pre-monsoon season; MJJ). The average monthly rainfall for pre-monsoon ranged from 152.7-176.8 mm. The large quantities of rainfall are observed in August to October (ASO (the monsoon season)) is ranged from 136.1-236.0 mm. The amount of average monthly rainfall in the dry season, Nov-Jan (NDJ), and Feb-May (FMA) are ranged from 11.1-26.0 mm. and 31.3-85.7 mm. The average annual rainfall from four stations is 1333.9 mm. and the minimum and maximum of average annual rainfall are 812.0 mm and 1858.1 mm. was detected in 1979 and 1983, respectively.

Rainfall (mm)

300

200

100

0 JAN

FEB MAR APR MAY JUL

JUN AUG

SEP

OCT NOV DEC

Figure 2: Averaged monthly rainfall from 1976-2017 in Klong Yai River Basin.

3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 DATA COLLECTION There are two important data in this research consisted of the monthly rainfall data and the large-scale atmospheric variables (LAV). Very few rainfall stations are distributed over the Klong Yai River Basin as shown in Figure 1. The monthly rainfall data of four stations were collected by the Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD) cover the period 1976-2017. Data consideration was done under three conditions. The first one, the rainfall station should have located above the reservoir because this research aims to apply the rainfall forecast results for future water management such as finding the amount of water entering the reservoir for adequate water allocation. The second one is the number of completed rainfall data available at each station is not less than 95% and the last one is the consistency of duration is not less than 30 years. From Figure 1, the rainfall station above the reservoir is station 478004 with 4.0% incomplete data and forty-year rainfall duration consistency (1977-2017) while the incomplete data at station 478001, 478002, and 478007 are equal to 22%, 10.8%, and 4.5% respectively. Therefore, the data at station 478004 is suitable for forecast the 3-month rainfall in the Klong Yai River basin. Large-scale atmospheric variables (LAV) is the global climate data are collected and provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which presented in Grid cell size 2.5o

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

latitude x 2.5o longitude around the world and at different heights, ranging from the surface level to the higher levels above the atmosphere. LAV data includes 13 atmospheric variables such as geopotential height (GH), zonal wind (u), meridional wind (v), air temperature (AT), sea surface temperature (SST), relative humidity (RH), specific humidity (SH), pressure (P), omega (O), sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation rate (PR), precipitable water (PW), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR). The LAV data period from 1977-2014 was used in this study.

3.2 PREDICTOR IDENTIFICATION 3.2.1 CORRELATION MAPS OF THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES Correlation map is the result of correlation analysis between the rainfall in the study area and the large-scale atmospheric variables (LAV) at different coordinates. The correlation map is an interactive plot that is analyzed and provided by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESLR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The important condition to identify predictors based on the significant relationship which can be tested the hypothesis by Fisherâ€™s Transformation (z') method (Haan, 2002).

ďŁŤ1+ r ďŁś z ' = 0.5 * lnďŁŹ ďŁˇ ďŁ1âˆ’ r ďŁ¸

(1),

where z' is an approximately normally distributed, and is used to compare with z of the standard normal distribution to obtain the significant level (p) of correlation, đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x; is the correlation coefficient between two independent data sets. 3.2.2 COMBINATION CASE OF PREDICTORS To reduce the complexity of the rainfall forecast model, the optimal predictors' selection method is very important. In this study, generalized cross-validation (GCV) with the leave-one-out technique was used as a selection method. For m multiple independent variables, there are 2m-1 cross-combination cases of variables. In this case, only one point was picked as the test set. The model was built on all the remaining, complementary points, and evaluates its error on the single-point held out. A generalization error estimate is obtained by repeating this procedure for each of the training points available, averaging the results. Each combination case is evaluated using this technique and the GCV is calculated by:

ei2 âˆ‘n GCV = i =1 2 (1 âˆ’ m / n ) n

(2),

where đ?‘’đ?‘’đ?‘–đ?‘– is the residual error in each case, đ?‘›đ?‘› is the total number of data points, and m is the number of variables. 3.2.3 RAINFALL FORECAST MODEL Regression analysis is used to predict dependent variables by considering the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The most widely used regression analysis is the parametric approach based on the exact assumption of the function such as a *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

linear regression in which its outcome can be estimated from a linear relationship. Each data point on the regression line has one residual. If all data points are on the regression line, the residual is equal to zero. The accuracy of the model depends on the data distribution. Unlike the parametric approach, the nonparametric approach does not require making assumptions or parameters. Therefore, the nonparametric approach is more flexible and accurate than the parametric approach. For this reason, the modified k-nearest neighbor model (k-nn) which is a nonparametric approach used for fit regression and forecast model. For fitting process, local regression fit, the minimum GCV was calculated from a couple of the neighbor size (k) and polynomial order (p) is almost always at order 1 or 2 because a low-order polynomial and the simple models can be easily fitted with the data more than higher-order polynomial.

ei2 âˆ‘ n GCV ( k , p ) = i =1 2 (1 âˆ’ m / n ) n

(3),

where ei is the residual, n is the total number of data points, and m is the number of variables. The mean estimation of rainfall (yďż˝ 1, yďż˝ 2, yďż˝ 3,â€Ś, yďż˝ n) and the residual (e1, e2, e3,â€Ś, en) of independent variables (x1, x2, x3,â€Ś, xn) can be calculated from the developed local regression. The rainfall forecast (đ?‘Śđ?‘Śďż˝i) at any point (đ?‘Śđ?‘Śďż˝i) is made from a simple average of a small subset of nearby points (đ?‘Śđ?‘Śďż˝i). The modified k-nn makes predictions based on the residual (ei) of the k neighbors closest and the

value of k can be computed in term of âˆšđ?‘›đ?‘› âˆ’ 1, đ?‘›đ?‘› is the total number of data. The random selection of the residuals used the weight function which gives the most weight to the residual nearest the point of estimation and the least weight to the residual that is furthest away. The weight function can be calculated as W ( j) =

1/ j

(4),

âˆ‘ (1 / i) i =1

where đ?‘Šđ?‘Š(đ?‘—đ?‘—) is the weight value of a neighbor of (đ?‘Ľđ?‘ĽĚ… i) in j rank and k is the size of neighbors. To define closeness, the distance between point (đ?‘Ľđ?‘ĽĚ… i) and (xi) of the k neighbors must be calculated by the Euclidean distance equations:

di =

âˆ‘ (x

âˆ’ xi

)

for univariate data

(5),

for multivariate data

(6),

j =1

)

i, j

âˆ’ xi , j

where i is 1, 2, 3, â€Ś, n, and m is the number of the identified predictors. Instead of making for only one prediction of the most likely case, an ensemble of prediction is produced. Therefore, the number of ensembles of rainfall (N) was repeated many times until reach to achieve of rainfall forecasting ensemble; in this case, N is 300 ensembles.

3.2.4 EVALUATION OF MODIFIED K-NEAREST NEIGHBOR MODEL

The evaluation of the Modified k-nn model is based on the Leave-one-out technique. The

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

regression between the independent variable (LAV) and the dependent variable (the 3-month rainfall from 1976-2017) in the Khlong Yai River Basin was developed. The leave-one-out technique was done at every point in this case total points are 39 points and after that leave 1 data point out from 38 training data. These data points are used as validation data. Repeat until complete 39 points at 12 different lead times. (a)

Goodness-of-fit technique

The goodness-of-fit technique is represented by the box plots. The box plot in each lag time during MJJ, ASO, NDJ, and FMA can be estimated by 300 simulations from the modified k-nn model. The criteria used to evaluate the model efficiency based on five standardizes of the statistics measurement including mean, median, standard deviation, interquartile range, and skewness. A box plot shows the quartile range of ensembles between the 25th percentile (QL) and 75 (QU). The whiskers are lines running from the box to the maximum and minimum values and the median is the line dividing the box. The solid line represents the statics observed data are plotted overlying the box plot of statics estimated data. The model efficiency depends on the consistency in statistics preserving between the observed and estimated data. (b)

Probability density function technique

The modified k-nn model evaluation used the probability concept to capture the Probability density function (PDF) of the historical 3-month rainfall data. The possible outcome of the probability indicates the chance that a particular event will occur. Probabilities can be expressed as proportions ranging 0-1. The historical 3-month rainfall data (MJJ, ASO, NDJ, and FMA), during 1977-2017 in the Klong Yai River Basin was considered and then classified into five categories at 20th, 40th, 60th, and 80th (namely: extremely dry, dry, normal, wet and extremely wet respectively). The probability can measure from

P (E ) =

N (E ) N (S )

(7),

where P(E) is the probability of the possible outcomes, N(E) is the number outcomes favorable and N(S) is the total number of outcomes. For a given year, 300 ensemble rainfall from the modified k-nn model was classified into five categories same as the classification of historical data and then calculate the probability of each category .After that, the probability of calculated rainfall each year could be identified as the possibility of rainfall interval by considered the maximum probability .Finally, compare the possibility categories between the historical rainfall and the calculated rainfall for example, in 1980, the probability of 3-month rainfall from historical data is dry and the category of rainfall from the model is also dry that means the model can be captured PDF and the model efficiency can be measured from the percentage of accuracy at that period.

*Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 PREDICTOR IDENTIFICATION AND COMBINATION CASE The correlation map, analyzed and published by NOAA, was used to identify the most influence large-scale atmospheric variables (LAV) on seasonal rainfall in the Klong Yai River Basin. The identified LAV were used to develop the 3-month rainfall forecast model. The correlation map demonstrated the statistical relationship between 3-month rainfall for four periods (MJJ, ASO, NDJ, and FMA) and 13 LAV for 12 different lead times ranging from 4-15 months covering potential regions such as study basin, the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the Gulf of Thailand, South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. The LAV in this research was selected based on the significant relationship at a 99% confidence level which was tested by Fisherâ€™s transformation from rainfall data 39 years (1976-2014). So the upper and lower bounds of the correlation coefficient (r) are Âą 0.4. For example, the relationship between ASO rainfall and Zonal wind was found at a 30 mb level as shown in Figure 3. The correlation maps represented a higher Zonal wind over the study basin and nearby the sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Gulf of Thailand, and the Pacific Ocean, is associated with increasing ASO rainfall. The location, which has a high positive correlation is +0.4 and its long lead times 4-9 months over the Bay, is shown in the solid box.

Figure 3: The correlation maps between ASO rainfall at a lead time 4-9 months, respectively from left-right and top-bottom and Zonal wind at 30 mb level

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

Table 1: Summary of the identified predictor from correlation maps in the Klong Yai basin Season of rainfall

MJJ

ASO

NDJ

FMA

Atmospheric variables GH u1 u2 AT1 AT2 RH1 RH2 SH1 SH2 O SLP PW U V AT SH1 SH2 GH U V AT SST RH SH P SLP PR PW OLR GH U v1 v2 AT SST RH SH1 SH2 P O SLP PR PW OLR

Location Latitude Longitude 7.5-12.5°N 30-35°N 0-5°N 25-30°N 0-5°N 2.5-7.5°N 2.5-7.5°N 0-5°N 12.5-17.5°N 10-15°N 7.5-12.5°S 5-10°S 10-15°N 12.5-20°N 12.5-17.5°N 7.5-15°N 0-5°S 0-5°N 2.5-7.5°N 10-15°N 2.5°S-2.5°N 0-5°N 0-5°N 0-5°N 0-5°N 2.5-7.5°S 2.5°S-2.5°N 2.5-7.5°N 0-5°N 0-5°N 2.5-7.5°N 0-5°N 5-10°N 10-15°N 7.5°-12.5° 5-10°N 2.5°S-2.5°N 5-10°N 0-5°S 5-10°N 0-5°S 0-5°N 7.5°S-2.5°N 0-5°S

180-185°E 180-185°E 175-180°E 175-180°E 210-217.5°E 135-140°E 210-215°E 180-185°E 205-210°E 207.5-212.5°E 205-210°E 180-190°E 85-95°E 180-190°E 157.5-167.5°E 120-130°E 110-120°E 135-140°E 230-235°E 207.5-212.5 °E 250-260 °E 255-260 °E 255-260 °E 110-115 ° N 275-250 °E 255-260°E 255-260°E 255-260°E 255-260°E 240-250 °E 162.5-167.5 °E 155-160 °E 92.5-97.5 °E 110-120 °E 145-150 °E 175-180 °E 217.5-222.5 °E 95-100 °E 220-225 °E 155-160°E 207.5-212.5 °E 202.5-207.5°E 105-115°E 202.5-207.5°E

level (mb) 250 100 100 400 400 925 925 500 500 500 Surface Surface 30 10 850 400 400 600 700 150 Surface Surface 400 400 Surface Surface Surface Surface Surface 850 850 200 200 50 Surface 400 400 400 Surface 925 Surface Surface Surface Surface

Lead time (month) 8-10 4-7 11-13 4-6 9-13 10-14 13-15 8-15 4-6 4-6 12-14 8-12 4-9 11-15 12-15 4-8 10-14 4-11 6-11 5-11 4-9 4-9 6-11 5-15 5-8 4-7 5-9 4-8 6-11 7-11 4-11 4-9 13-15 6-13 4-9 4-11 4-9 10-12 4-9 4-12 4-9 4-8 4-8 4-9

The summary results of the identified predictors from the correlation map at a 99% confidence level were shown in Table 1. The results indicated that the significant relationships covered the different areas depending on the period of 3-month rainfall at a different height, and the long lead times. The significant relationship for the monsoon season (i.e. MJJ and ASO rainfall) and the selected predictors have long lead times ranging from 3-8 lead times. The predictors for pre-monsoon rainfall (MJJ) are identified over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean which its relationships are the *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

positive and negative correlation. There are five predictors such as v, SST, P, PR, and OLR have significant correlations at every level but short lead times. In addition to the above predictors, a significant relationship can be found with 3-8 months lead times. For example, the relationship between MJJ rainfall and GH at the level 250 mb can be found over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean at lead times 8-12 months. For ASO rainfall, five influence predictors consist of u, v, AT RH, and SH were found over the Gulf of Thailand, the South China Sea, Jawa (Indonesia), and the West Pacific Ocean. The significant relationships are observed at 3-6 lead times. For example, a significant relationship between ASO rainfall and v at the level 10 mb has long lead 11-15 months. The significant relationship between rainfall and predictors in the dry season (i.e. NDJ and FMA) has long lead time more than monsoon season. Generally, the significant relationships appeared in different regions such as the Gulf of Thailand, the South China Sea, the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the East Pacific Ocean. The longest lead time, appeared in the region of the South China Sea with a significant relationship between NDJ rainfall and SH at the level 400 mb, was 5-15 months. For other significant relationships have 4-7 long lead times to accept the significant relationship between NDJ rainfall and O has no long lead time. The predictors for rainfall during FMA were found with the significant relationships between FMA rainfall and O at level 925 mb, which appeared in the east of Pacific Ocean, with the longest lead times 4-12 months compared with other predictors. The predictors from Table 1 were used to develop the 3-month rainfall forecast model. Instead of using overall predictors which is very complicated to use various predictors to construct the model. Reducing the predictors with minimizing the criteria of generalizes cross-validation (GCV) can solve this complex problem. The advantage of reducing the redundancy of these predictors with GCV results in 1-4 optimal predictors in each lag time. The summary of the optimal predictors for 12 different lag times from GCV was shown in Table 2. Table 2: Summary of the optimal predictors for 12 different lag times. Seasonal Rainfall

1 O

2 GH

3 AT1 SH2

4 AT1 SH2

U V SH2 AT SST PR OLR GH SH1 O

u AT

v SLP PR OLR v1 AT

GH SLP

GH SH1 O

GH v1

MJJ

ASO

NDJ

FMA

Lead time (month) 6 7 8 AT2 RH1 AT2 RH1 SH1 RH1 SH1 SH2 SH1 u u u u v v v SH2 SH2 OLR SLP v v OLR PR 5 AT2 PW

GH v1

RH PR

AT O

9 AT2 RH1 SH1 u v

10 O RH1 SH2 v

11 RH1 SH2

12 SH1

v SH1

AT P SLP

P O SLP

SH1 P O SLP

O SLP PW

4.2 EVALUATION OF MODIFIED K-NEAREST NEIGHBOR MODEL (a) Goodness-of-fit technique

The goodness-of-fit of a statistical model describes how well it preserves to observations. The box plot of 300 simulated rainfall means, median, SD, interquartile range, and skewness was developed and fitted to the observed rainfall for four periods (MJJ, ASO, NDJ, and FMA) at 12

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

different lag times. For monsoon season (i.e. MJJ and ASO), the observed mean is 390 and 541 mm. respectively.

Figure 4: The box plots of 300 simulated rainfall from the modified k-nn model for MJJ, ASO, NDJ, and FMA in 1977-2017 with 12 different lag times. (The red lines represent the statistics of observations.) The goodness-of-fit technique was used to evaluate the Modified k-nn model by fitting the historical data to the box plots of 300 forecasting ensembles of rainfall using the basic statistics of measurement data for four periods (MJJ, ASO, NDJ, and FMA) ranging from 1977-2017. The basic statistics of measurement data consisting of mean, median, standard deviation, interquartile range, and skewness are represented in Table 3. From Figure 4, the results indicated that the forecasted data could be preserved to the observed data in every period except for the box plots of the interquartile *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

range during FMA at 3, 4, and 5 months lag time which was found to be overestimated. Also, an underestimation of the skewness box plot was found in the same duration (FMA) at 9 months lag time. (b) Probability density function technique

The model evaluation used the probability of capturing PDF of the 3-month rainfall data by comparing the probability of historical rainfall data and computed data with 5 categories. The results of efficiencies for a 3-month rainfall forecast model in the Klong Yai river basin during 1977-2017 were obtained in Table 3. According to these results, the maximum efficiency to capture the historical 3-month rainfall data was found in pre-monsoon (MJJ) equal to 42.5% at 6- and 9-month lag time. The minimum efficiency of the same period is equal to 15% at a 12-month lag. The efficiency of the model during the monsoon season was lowest. The maximum and minimum efficiency in this period is 31.7% at 9-month lag and 7.3% at a 3-month lag. For the dry season (NDJ and FMA), the maximum efficiency is 35.0% at a 6-month lag and 41.5% at a 7-month lag. The minimum efficiency in NDJ is 15% at 9 and 11-month lag. For FMA, the minimum efficiency is 19.5% at a 12-month lag. Therefore, the efficiency of the Modified k-nn model to forecast 3-month rainfall depends on lag time and the probability in preserve the PDF of the observed data in pre-monsoon and monsoon season which are 7.3-42.5% and 15.0-41.5% respectively. Table 3: The efficiency of 3-month rainfall forecast model in Klong Yai river basin during 1977-2017 Periods MJJ AOS NDJ FMA

1 30.0 29.3 32.5 24.4

Legend:

2 27.5 24.4 32.5 22.0

3 37.5 7.3 25.0 34.1

4 20.0 24.4 22.5 26.8

Model efficiency (%) Lag time (month) 5 6 7 8 35.5 42.5 27.5 35.0 9.8 12.2 24.4 26.8 22.5 35.0 20.0 32.5 29.3 22.0 41.5 34.1

Maximum efficiency

9 42.5 31.7 15.0 26.8

10 25.0 26.8 12.5 26.8

11 25.0 26.8 15.0 34.1

12 15.0 22.0 17.5 19.5

Minimum efficiency

5. CONCLUSION High variation of rainfall due to climate change requires a stochastic hydrologic model, considering the uncertainty of rainfall, to forecast rainfall more accurately. A modified k-nn model, based on a stochastic nonparametric approach, was developed in this study to forecast seasonal rainfall over the Klong Yai River basin. According to rainfall characteristics in the area, rainfall was grouped into four seasons which are two-premonsoon seasons (November-December-January: NDJ and February-March-April: FMA) and two monsoon seasons (May-June-July: MJJ and August-September-October: ASO). Monthly rainfall data during 1976-2017 were used for analysis in the study. A variety of Large Atmospheric Variables at different levels were analyzed their correlations with seasonal rainfall over the study area. It has been found that different LAV at different levels influenced seasonal rainfall over the river basin with different lagging time. Generalized Cross-Validation was used to select the optimal predictors for the modified k-nn model. Finally, only one to four LAV were used as predictors to forecast seasonal rainfall for 1 to 12 months lead time with different LAV for each season and for each lead time. Goodness-of-fit and probability density function techniques were used to evaluate the efficiency of the model. The results of the

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

model simulation reveal that the forecasted rainfall was well preserved to the observed data for the goodness-of-fit technique. For the probability density function technique, the modified k-nn model performed well for forecasting of rainfall in pre-monsoon season with 43% efficiency, but the performance reduced to 32% efficiency for forecasting of monsoon rainfall. However, the model developed in the study can be used to forecast seasonal rainfall for one year ahead providing useful information as a guideline for water resources management in Klong Yai River Basin.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors are thankful to the Thai Meteorological Department for providing rainfall data and PTT Public Company Limited for research fund and kind cooperation in the testing of the model.

8. REFERENCES Ansari, H. (2013). Forecasting seasonal and annual rainfall based on nonlinear modeling with Gamma test in North of Iran. Int. J. Eng. Pract. Res, 2(1), 16-29. Barcikowska, M. J., Kapnick, S. B., & Feser, F. (2018). Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate. Climate dynamics, 50(5-6), 2039-2059. Bridhikitti, A. (2019). Multi-decadal trends and oscillations of Southeast Asian monsoon rainfall in northern Thailand. Songklanakarin Journal of Science & Technology, 41(1). 74-80. Djibo, A.G. (2015b). Development and assessment of non-linear and non-stationary seasonal rainfall forecast models for the Serba watershed, West Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, 134-152. Djibo, A.G., et al. (2015a). Linear and Non-Linear Approaches for Statistical Seasonal Rainfall Forecast in the Sirba Watershed Region (SAHEL). Climate 2015, 3, 727-752; DOI:10.3390/cli3030727. Friend, R., & Thinphanga, P. (2018). Urban water crises under future uncertainties: the case of institutional and infrastructure complexity in Khon Kaen, Thailand. Sustainability, 10 (11): 3921. Rasel, H.M. (2016). Application of Artificial Neural Network for Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting: A Case Study for South Australia. Proceeding of the World Congress on Engineering 2016, Vol I. Hamada, S., Badr, Zaitchik, B.F. (2013). Application of Statistical Models to the Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies over the Sahel. Journal of Applied Meteorological and Climatology, 53, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0181.1. Hossain, I., Esha, R., & Alam Imteaz, M. (2018). An attempt to use non-linear regression modeling technique in long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting for Australian capital territory. Geosciences, 8(8), 282. Li, Y., Strapassonb, A., Rojas, O. (2019). Assessment of ElNiño and LaNiña impacts on China: Enhancing the Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100208. Loo, Y. Y., Billa, L., & Singh, A. (2015). Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. Geosci Front 6: 817–823. Mamombe, V., Kim, W., Choi, Y.S. (2016). Rainfall variability over Zimbabwe and its relation to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean processes. Int. J. Climatol, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4752 Marks, D.. (2011). Climate Change and Thailand: Impact and Response. International Contemporary *Corresponding author (Yasser Ali Baeshen). Email: ybaeshen@kau.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

Southeast Asia. Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, 33(2), 229-258. Singhrattna N, Babel, M.S., and Perret, S.R. (2012). Hydroclimate Variability and Long-Lead Forecasting of Rainfall over Thailand by Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 57(1), 2012. Singhrattna N, Rajagopalan B, Kumar KK, and Clark. (2005). Interannual and Interdecadal variability of Thailand summer Monsoon Season. J Clim, 18, 1697-1708. Singhrattna N., Mukand, Perret, S.R. (2013). Changes in Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. Climate Research, 49: 155-168, 2011, DOI 10.3354/cr01015. Sipayung, S. B., Nurlatifah, A., Siswanto, B., & Slamet, L. S. (2018). Analysis of climate change impact on rainfall pattern of Sambas district, West Kalimantan. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 149(1), 1755-1315. Ueangsawat, K., Nilsamranchit, S., & Jintrawet, A. (2015). The fate of the ENSO phase in upper Northern Thailand, a case study in Chiang Mai. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 5, 2-8. Weesakul, U., Oonta-on, K. (2015). Impact of Climate Change on Annual Rainfall over Eastern River Basin in Thailand: A Warning signal for Future Industrial Water Supply. The 4th International Symposium on Engineering, Energy, and Environment. Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N., and Luangdilok, N. (2013). Effect of Climate Change on Thailand Rainfall Variability. The 3rd International Symposium on Engineering, Energy and Environments. Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N., and Luangdilok, N. (2014). Rainfall Forecast in Northeast of Thailand Using Modified K-Nearest Neighbor. KKU Engineering Journal, 41(1): 1-10. Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N., Yodpongpiput, P. (2016). Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Cropping Pattern Planning Using a Modified K-Nearest Neighbor Model. KKU Engineering Journal, 43(3): 156-161. Kwanchanok Oonta-on is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat University. She graduated with her Bachelor of Civil Engineering from Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University. She earned her Master of Engineering in Civil Engineering from Thammasat University. Her research interests Concern Rainfall Forecast Model and Water Resources Management and Planning. Dr.Uruya Weesakut is an Associate Professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat University. She received her Bachelor of Engineering in Civil Engineering (Honors) from Khonkaen University, Thailand. She received her Master of Engineering in Water Resources Engineering from the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand. She then extended her research on the application of remote sensing and gained another Master's degree in Remote Sensing from GDTA, Toulouse, France. Later, she received her Ph.D. in Mechanical and Civil Engineering from the University of Montpellier II, France. Her research interests concern the rainfall forecast model and water resources management and planning. Dr. Nkrintra Singhrattna is a Civil Engineer of the Structural and System Engineering Bureau, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, Thailand. She received her Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from Chiang Mai University, Thailand. She got her Master of Science degree in Water Engineering and Management from the University of Colorado at Boulder, USA. Later, she received her Ph.D. in Water Engineering and Management from the Asian Institute of Technology.

Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11T

TRANSFER PRICING RISK WITHIN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN THAILAND 1*

Paranyu Vitanakorn , Sillapaporn Srijunpetch 1

Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University, Bangkok, THAILAND.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 07 February 2020 Received in revised form 4 May 2020 Accepted 20 May 2020 Available online 29 May 2020

The purpose of this study is to assess transfer pricing risk within the automotive industry in Thailand based on COSO ERM 2017; identifying transfer pricing risk, prioritizing risk by rating its severity, and developing appropriate risk response to mitigate risk. The findings and results of this study show that there are five potential key transfer Keywords: pricing risks sorted by the severity of risk in descending order from Tax risk assessment; intellectual property, profit allocation in accordance with the COSO ERM 2017; risk-bearing function and capital, high-risk transaction related to OECD; BEPS Actions; service, arm’s length price calculation, and pricing policy and interest. Transfer pricing risk The most efficient and sustainable method to mitigate risk is to factors; Transfer pricing understand the business so that the most suitable pricing policy can be risk mitigation; Intellectual Property (IP); selected and embedded into the business plan. In addition, all firms Advance Pricing should anticipate auditing from the Thai Revenue Department by Agreement (APA). regularly reviewing the pricing policy. Another effective risk response for the companies with changes in functions or business structure is to agree on the profit range and pricing policy in advance with the Thai Revenue Department. It is called the Advance Pricing Agreement. Disciplinary: Management Science (Pricing Risk Management) and Tax Management Strategies. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION In the globalization world, multinational companies (MNCs) keep expanding themselves to farther areas where costs are cheaper and the gap in tax rules exist. Therefore, several MNCs attempt to use transfer pricing as a tool for effective tax avoidance or tax evasion. Some large businesses, for example, Starbucks, Amazon, and Google are accused of using transfer pricing for tax avoidance activities due to low payment of corporate income tax in the United Kingdom although they report their large sum of profit in the United States (Huda et al, 2017). As a result, tax authorities worldwide pay more attention to transfer pricing during the tax audit because excessive *Corresponding author (P.Vitanakorn). Tel:+66-817541157 Email: paranyu.v@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.224

use of transfer pricing causes tax income loss for tax authorities and trigger them to perform transfer pricing audit to gain more corporate income tax from firms (Urquidi & Thompson, 2010; Sikka & Willmott, 2010). At the same time, Thailand’s Tax authority; so-called Thai Revenue Department (TRD), tightens up their transfer pricing law by enforcing the firms in Thailand which generate the revenue exceeding 200 Million Thai Baht to submit the report disclosing transaction details with a related company, starting from 2020. It causes firms to raise their awareness of transfer pricing to protect themselves from being accused of using abusive transfer pricing penalized for tax shortfall. Therefore, understanding the potential transfer pricing risk and its impact ahead of time is necessary for all industries, especially automotive industry, as it is one of the targets for transfer pricing inspection due to its complexity of transaction within a long supply chain and has a great impact on Thai economy (Ernst and Young, 2012). The objective of this study is to identify transfer pricing risk factors within Thailand’s automotive industry and understand the severity and priority of identified transfer pricing risks to raise awareness and manage the risk response efficiently. This study is useful for the participants of the study, the accountants in automotive companies because they can use the experts’ opinions as their reference to assess their company’s transfer pricing risk. Moreover, other industries with the same function as the automotive industry can use this study as a guideline to do transfer pricing assessment. This study raises awareness of some other transfer pricing risk factors that have never been seen as critical ones before. The experts’ opinions and advice clarify the fact and give us a wider scope of reliable knowledge.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 TRANSFER PRICING RISK FROM FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS Transfer pricing has been a long-lasting controversy among global MNCs and tax authorities. Several transfer pricing cases of renowned MNCs; Starbucks, Chevron, and Amazon, show the dispute between MNCs and tax authorities. The common issue found in these three cases is that they are suspected of financial transactions. For example, an intra-group loan or royalty from intangibles can shift the profit to cross-bordered related entities to reduce their tax bill (Sari & Hunar, 2015; Vann & Cooper, 2016; Nevius, 2017). There are certain types of risky financial transactions for transfer pricing purposes. At the same time, the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) introduces the inclusive framework of Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) to solve tax avoidance issues and ensure consistency of transfer pricing with arm’s length principle together with an alignment of economic value by proposing an implementation of 15 action plans. Among BEPS 15 actions, action 4, 8, 9, and 10 are introduced as transfer pricing on financial transactions between intragroup companies (OECD, 2013). 1) Action 4 recommends a limitation of interest deductions to prevent base erosion from interest expense. MNCs may utilize the adjustment of debt amount among group companies to gain favorable tax results such as using an intragroup loan to generate excessive interest deduction or to gain tax-exempt income.

Paranyu Vitanakorn, Sillapaporn Srijunpetch

2) Action 8 focuses on intangibles relating issues from transfer pricing due to its mobility and hard valuation. It covers the contents on the adoption of a broad and clear definition of intangibles, suitable allocation of profits arisen from the intangible usage or transfer in accordance with value creation, rule development of hard-to-value intangibles. 3) Action 9 considers the contractual allocation of risks which may not correspond with executed activities. Besides, Action 9 indicates the correspondence of the level of returns by the funding entities, and the level of activities undertaken by the funding company. 4) Action 10 addresses other high-risk areas in various scopes such as the profit allocation from controlled transaction to related entities which are not commercially rational, the usage of transfer pricing approach to divert the profit from the most economically important activities of MNC, and the use of some payment which is hard to measure and may not align with value creation such as management fee and head office expense.

2.2 TRANSFER PRICING RISK ASSESSMENT To prevent or mitigate tax risks, both oversea and Thailand’s firms have focused on tax risk management because they believe that it gives high benefits of taxation strategy, tax risk mitigation, lower risk of tax audit burden and gains shareholder’s confidence on improved tax internal control and tax governance. Common tax risk management framework was developed based on COSO ERM to control risks in the tax area (Rensburg, 2012). Based on COSO ERM 2017, tax risk assessment is one of the key components of tax risk management which identifies, assesses, and reports risk-related matters. Thus, it is necessary to understand the process of tax risk assessment included in the 5 principles lying within Component 3 of COSO ERM 2017 (COSO, 2017). 1) Principle 10 Risk Identification. Firms identify risks from internal and external circumstances in all aspects which could have some impacts on the achievement of enterprise or business operation’s targets and strategies. Risk factors and potential impact from risk will be addressed in this stage, too. 2) Principle 11 Assessment of Severity of Risk. Firms assess the severity of identified risk in multiple levels, such as an impact on the entity-wide level or at the business unit’s objective level. The severity measurement is set based on its impact and likelihood but should be aligned with the nature, size, and complexity of a firm and its risk appetite. 3) Principle 12 Risk Prioritizing. Identified risk is prioritized based on the severity of risk compared with the firm’s risk appetite. The priority of risks is the basis for selecting risk responses. 4) Principle 13 Implementation of Risk Response. Risk Response is selected depending on each identified risk from management decision by considering its effect on the business context, cost, and benefit, firm’s risk appetite as well as risk priority and severity. Examples of risk responses are Accept, Avoid, Mitigate, and Share the risk. 5) Principle 14 Portfolio View Development. The last process of risk assessment is to develop a portfolio view of risk to assess an entity-wide risk and a current overview risk with the *Corresponding author (P.Vitanakorn). Tel:+66-817541157 Email: paranyu.v@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.224

entity’s target and strategy at each level.

3. METHOD This study follows COSO ERM 2017 component 3 to assess overall transfer pricing risks within Thailand’s automotive industry. Considering the quality of the result and population integrity in recruiting six participants; four experienced accountants from four representative automotive companies and two experts in transfer pricing from Big Four companies, are chosen as the study samples. This study runs in-depth interviews to collect data and uses the Delphi technique in the data analysis by performing an in-depth interview for two rounds.

Figure 1: Research procedures Figure 1 shows the study’s overall procedure. The first round (Delphi 1) is an interview with 4 experienced accountants from automotive companies to collect the data of transfer pricing risk factors, the severity of risks, and suggested risk response method based on the transfer pricing risk assessment process in COSO ERM 2017. The predetermined questions are distributed to the participants beforehand while in-depth interviews are conducted and summarized in the following process. 1) Risk identification. Upon interview with participants in Delphi 1, information related to transfer pricing risk must be identified. Transfer pricing risk is the main risk identified in this study. So, the interview focuses on risk factors across business functions in the automotive industry which might cause transfer pricing risk and its impact on tax aspects. 2) Transfer pricing risk rating on severity. Each participant needs to assess the severity of each identified risk by rating impact and likelihood level to prioritize each transfer pricing risk and find an appropriate risk response. The rating criteria of impact are based on external auditor’s materiality, using net income after tax as a qualitative benchmark (Eilifsen & Messier Jr, 2015). The rating criteria of likelihood are based on participants’ experiences and opinions of how probable a taxpayer uses this kind of situation or transaction to perform transfer mispricing or to trigger tax administration in performing tax audits. 3) Prioritizing risk and Risk response. Identified transfer pricing risks, of which the impact and likelihood are assessed, are prioritized before selecting an appropriate risk response. Moreover, each participant is required to give a risk response method for transfer pricing risk to develop an

Paranyu Vitanakorn, Sillapaporn Srijunpetch

overall risk response solution. 4) Develop an overall risk matrix. The researchers gather information in steps 1 to 3 from each participant, summarize them in an overall transfer pricing risk assessment, and show in a risk matrix format. According to the intermediate result summary in Delphi 1, such a result is distributed to the second round of interviews with expert consultants in the transfer pricing area from the Big Four companies (Delphi 2). The interview with Delphi 2 collects the experts’ professional opinions on intermediate results to assess the consensus of the responses between 2 rounds of interview and improve the study’s validity. Then, their opinions are added to the final result summary.

4. FINDING AND RESULT 4.1 TRANSFER PRICING RISK FACTORS IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN THAILAND 4.1.1 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY In the automotive industry, Intellectual Property (IP) is a kind of patent or know-how relating to the product or part design, manufacturing, and assembling, including trademark, to manufacture finished vehicles or parts. It sometimes involves a right to modify or develop product and part design. Generally, the transactions related to IP have two types. The first one, called outright IP acquisition, is used when the company invents the IP and plans to sell and transfer the ownership of IP to the buyer. Then, the buyer, as IP’s new owner, has IP possession right to manufacture parts or vehicles based on purchased IP. The second type, called running royalty, is used when the IP owner grants the right to use the IP. Since the ownership is not transferred, the grantee needs to pay back the royalty regularly based on sales of such products. In any case, both Delphi 1 and 2 unanimously choose IP as the top priority transfer pricing transaction for TRD because of its difficulty in valuation. The experts clarify IP valuation issues. As for outright IP, there are two prominent valuation methods; Cost Approach and Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF). In basic taxation rules, the estimation or assumption by both methods is not acceptable to be recorded as an expense in taxation. The cost approach uses the assumption of the total cost as if we make a new IP. Similarly, the DCF method uses the assumption of generated future income. This problem urges us to find some ways to prove to TRD that the assumption we use in the valuation is the closest value to reality. Several firms choose both the cost approach and DCF to see if the outcome remains at least nearly the same. If so, the assumption is proved reasonable. While the valuation of outright IP is difficult to prove the assumption, the valuation of running royalty is much easier. The expert gives an example to clearly understand how to value royalty. “Mr. A is the owner of a shirt factory. It produces simple white shirts and sells them at 100 Thai Baht price in which the cost per piece is 95 Thai Baht. Thus, the profit per piece is 5 Thai Baht. One day, Mr. A rescues Mr. B at the beach. During that time, Mr. B is the owner of a leading brand in the garment industry. Mr. B, knowing that Mr. A is an owner of the shirt factory, wants to thank Mr. A by giving him the right to freely use the logo of his brand for the rest of his life. Then, Mr. A *Corresponding author (P.Vitanakorn). Tel:+66-817541157 Email: paranyu.v@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.224

puts the logo on his shirts before increasing the selling price from 100 to 500 Thai Baht, of which the cost increases from 95 to 105 Baht. The profit sharply increases from 5 to 395 Thai Baht per piece. But Mr. B suddenly dies a year later. His family asks Mr. A to pay the royalty if he continues to put the logo in the products. The problem is how to calculate the royalty. The royalty is the value between the profit Mr. A makes before putting the logo and the highest profit Mr. A makes from producing shirts with the logo within a range of 5 to 395 Thai Baht”. This explanation is an easy case study. When there is a residual profit left from using IP, it becomes a cause of paying royalty back to the IP owner. Even though most of Thailand’s automotive companies usually pay royalty 2-6 percent, there is no guarantee that it is an appropriate range of royalty fee setting. 4.1.2 PROFIT ALLOCATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH RISK BEARING FUNCTION & CAPITAL In the business with a long supply chain in the automotive industry, most parent companies are located abroad. Therefore, there triggers the distrust in taxpayer and tax authority whether the companies in Thailand transfer their profit to the parent company or group companies overseas. At this point, TRD uses a profit range which should be in accordance with risk-bearing function and capital as a principle to examine how much the appropriate bottom line in a company is. Delphi 1 and 2 share the same opinion that the more function of work there is, the more risk to bear and the higher profit than other companies with less function of work. For example, a trading company, only aiming for sourcing and delivering goods to distribution centers to customers in the domestic or international market, has a very low risk as it does not need to stock up inventories. In terms of manufacturing companies, they must invest in a production plant and bear risk from unsold assembled products. So, the profit should be higher to compensate for these risks. High risks should come up with a high rate in return. The expert gives the opinion in two different aspects depending on business type and structure which are Completely Knock-Down (CKD) and Completely Built-Up (CBU). CBU imports finished vehicles and sell to the dealer in Thailand so the risk caused by the limited function of work is at a low rate. On the contrary, CKD involved in importing parts for assembly in Thailand must deal with high-investment. Its work function becomes riskier. CBU acts as a distributor with limited processes of work and low risk while CKD bears higher risk from huge investment together with various work processes. CKD theoretically has a higher profit than CBU. Hence, a lack of awareness in maintaining a bottom line in accordance with the risk-bearing function and capital is one of the transfer pricing risk factors which have an impact on the tax bill. It is necessary to consider the risk of every function in the domestic and international supply chain as a whole because TRD must prove the final profit in selling vehicles go to which company and whether it is in relation to risk-bearing function and capital. Therefore, automotive companies should highlight the benchmark among third party companies in the same industry with similar work functions and risk to check if the company’s profit in the group is at the same level as others in the same industry. 4.1.3 HIGH-RISK TRANSACTIONS RELATED TO SERVICE According to Delphi 1, there found many high-risk transactions related to service such as management service, consultation service, and research & development service among intra-group

Paranyu Vitanakorn, Sillapaporn Srijunpetch

companies. TRD may raise some questions about service fee calculated from man-hour rate to find out whether it is reasonable or prove whether the service is truly rendered to the client by asking for evidence such as pricing calculations, reports, or deliverables. However, Delphi 1 participants do not show their worries because they strongly believe that no issues occur once supporting documents are well-prepared. Contrary to Delphi 1’s opinion, the experts show concerns on these transactions that there are three main transfer pricing issues that companies must be aware of. First, transfer pricing risk may result from overlapping services. Some companies hire several kinds of services such as human resources, marketing, and management service. These companies need to ensure that the scope of such service received or rendered is not overlapped with one another. TRD may suspect the firm of using overlapped service as a transaction to shift the profit. Second, requests of service from related parties in spite of enough manpower may cause transfer pricing risk. TRD may deem the service as a transaction to shift the profit to a related entity when the firm hires a related entity to perform, even though the firm can perform the service by itself. Third, proof of service fee calculation is not an easy task as expected. Service fee is quite subjective compared with selling goods. Companies must calculate all related costs into an average man-hour rate of employees at each level because of the difference in personnel expertise and cost. TRD would not approve this method if executives and employees render the same service but gain the same amount of income despite the difference in salary and expertise. Also, the appropriate time spent in each task must be together calculated because it greatly affects the amount of service fee. Supposing that the detailed service by executives and general employees is the same but the executives are estimated to complete within 10 hours while the general employees take only 2 hours, the service fee does not match the rendered service. Historical data is the best proof of setting the pricing policy and it must be used to back up calculations. 4.1.4 INTERESTS FROM INTRA-GROUP LOAN Both accountants and experts share the same opinion that transfer pricing can be easily done through a loan or debt financing between intra-group companies as it is a common case in the automotive industry due to high investment in new model production. However, this method is not favorable because the transferable profit is low compared with IP or service transactions. Moreover, the market price of interest can be easily checked because it refers to commercial bank interest rates. 4.1.5 ARM’S LENGTH PRICE CALCULATION AND PRICING POLICY To prove arm’s length price, the appropriate calculation method and market benchmarking within the automotive industry must be selected to set the company’s pricing policy and business plan aiming to maintain an appropriate profit level. Delphi 1 points out that TRD might challenge the arm’s length price calculation and pricing policy. TRD would disagree with the selected calculation method or comment that the benchmarking companies are not suitable in function and risk, the population for benchmarking is not enough, the pricing policy is not related to the company’s latest condition. Inappropriate use of arm’s length price calculation and wrong pricing policy causes a difference in profit at the bottom line, which may take the profit out of profit range *Corresponding author (P.Vitanakorn). Tel:+66-817541157 Email: paranyu.v@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.224

from the benchmark and cause transfer pricing risk. However, Delphi 1 has some concerns about the appropriateness of selecting an armâ€™s length price calculation. They comment that some TRD lack knowledge in complicated transactions and cost structure in the automotive industry so there is a gap in counterchallenging. Delphi 2 shares the same opinion that the armâ€™s length price calculation can be risky. Apart from selecting the calculation method and benchmarking, pricing policy review is one of the most crucial tasks. Companies should regularly update their pricing policy because the current pricing policy may be challenged in the next three or five years afterward. At that point in time, TRD may challenge by asking for more information or historical data with a higher rate of accuracy than what companies have when setting policy. This concept is called a Contemporaneous concept. Hence, a regular update of pricing policy is necessary for mitigating risk. In addition, the experts in the costing of the automotive industry believe that firms offer a more reliable calculation method and successfully negotiate TRD.

4.2 TRANSFER PRICING RISK PRIORITIZATION The severity of identified 5 potential transfer pricing risk factors is measured by rating their impact and likelihood. Figure 2 shows the risk matrix prioritizing the severity of each risk factor responded by Delphi 1 and 2. RISK MATRIX FROM DELPHI 1 Likelihood Low

Medium

High

Impact

(1) Intellectiual Property Significantly Material

(1)

Material

(2)

(2) Profit allocation in accordance with risk-bearing and capital (3) High risk transaction related to service (4) Interests

Non Material

(5) Arm's length price calculation and

(3)

(4) (5)

Pricing policy RISK MATRIX FROM DELPHI 2 Likelihood Low

Medium

High

Impact

(1) Intellectiual Property Significantly Material

(1)

Material

(2) (3)

(2) Profit allocation in accordance with risk-bearing and capital (3) High risk transaction related to service (4) Interests

Non Material

(4)

(5)

(5) Arm's length price calculation and Pricing policy

Figure 2: Risk matrix created from the responses of Delphi 1 and Delphi 2. From the responses given by Delphi 1 and 2, both choose intellectual property as the top priority of transfer pricing risk and the highest severity among five transfer pricing risks. The impact is rated high by every participant because the IP value is incredibly high. In addition, hard-to-valuation makes less possibility to win the negotiation against TRD. In the case of running

Paranyu Vitanakorn, Sillapaporn Srijunpetch

royalty, TRD may challenge five years back which cause a significant impact on the financial statement. As for likelihood, both participants and experts affirm that TRD would challenge this transaction because IP is valued at least around 10 billion Thai Baht. Second, both Delphi 1 and 2 rate profit allocation in accordance with risk-bearing & capital at a high level. The average impact is in the medium because the risk can be controlled by maintaining the profit within the benchmarked profit range. Still, there exists the other remaining impact. Once TRD assesses the profit too low, it implies that the revenue from selling vehicles might increase after assessment. So, the excise and custom tax paid at a higher selling price must be paid, too. The likelihood is rated as high unanimously. They believe that TRD accesses all firms’ financial information through the submitted audited report and uses this information to benchmark profit with all companies in the same industry. It increases the higher chance of triggering TRD for transfer pricing audits. As for the high-risk transaction related to service which comes to the third, Delphi 1 and 2 have different viewpoints. The opinion is also different even within participants in Delphi 1 themselves. In terms of impacts, some accountants agree that the amount of service is not high, compared with IP or with profit adjustment related to risk-bearing & capital. Even if the company is assessed by TRD in this aspect, they show official supporting documents such as related reports, deliverables, invoices, and quotations. As for likelihood, these kinds of services are common so it may not be the top priority for transfer pricing audit. In contrast, other accountants and Delphi 2 agree that the impact is rated medium because of the same reason but the likelihood is deemed high. Transaction related to service is closely focused by TRD because the suitable service fee is difficult to prove and supporting documents such as deliverables might not be able to prove the service’s existence. In addition, management service has never been ignored because several companies use the terms of management service in both existing and non-existing service but there is neither definition nor exact details of work in such a service. This causes TRD to thoroughly investigate these transactions. Hence, some accountants in Delphi 1 and the experts in Delphi 2 score the impact as medium and likelihood as high for high-risk transactions related to service. As for arm’s length price calculation and pricing policy which are the fourth, Delphi 1’s opinion is unanimous. Both impact and likelihood are rated as low risk. They believe that TRD is not experienced enough in transfer pricing and has an inferior understanding of complex cost structures and technical skills. Hence, the company can negotiate this problem with TRD. Therefore, the impact is estimated unlikely while the likelihood is rated low because of authorities’ lack of experience. The experts partially agree with Delphi 1 in terms of impact. On the contrary to Delphi 1, both experts score likelihood high because Thailand’s automotive industry has been on the top priority list of TRD in challenging transfer pricing for so long. Lastly, the interest, the least risk among the other five. Both Delphi 1 and 2 rate the interest as low impact and low likelihood because the interest income or expense is usually lower compared with others. The impact is likely to be very small and has a low chance to draw attention from TRD.

4.3 TRANSFER PRICING RISK MITIGATION METHOD As suggested by Delphi 1, the company’s pricing policy is the top priority in risk mitigation. *Corresponding author (P.Vitanakorn). Tel:+66-817541157 Email: paranyu.v@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.224

The firms should focus on how to create a suitable pricing policy so that the profit at the bottom line falls within the market’s average profit range. Yet, Delphi 2 believes such a method is not suitable since it merely uses a favorable pricing policy to explain the firm’s expected profit without considering the real economic value of each transaction. Thus, the experts recommend a more sustainable way to mitigate transfer pricing risk. The firms must clearly understand their business in order to choose the most suitable pricing policy and appropriate margin from benchmarking which matches well with each of their business beforehand and then embed into a business plan in order to set the appropriate profit amount. Besides, the Advance Pricing Agreement (APA) is another risk mitigation method. It is an agreement between taxpayer and tax authority in two countries on an appropriate transfer pricing methodology of one or a set of transactions in advance. This method helps any automotive companies bargain and fix profit with the Thai and Overseas Revenue Department in advance for around five years. During such a period, the Revenue Department authorities do not investigate the committed transaction whenever it falls within the agreed profit range. This method is used once there found any job functions or operation changes that drastically move the profit from one country to another.

5. CONCLUSION This study applies COSO ERM 2017 in assessing transfer pricing risks in the automotive industry. It shows that accountants in the automotive industry are experienced in transfer pricing because they can identify 5 potential key transfer pricing risk factors in which the experts totally agree. They match both OECD’s BEPS actions and transfer pricing scheme in worldwide transfer pricing cases. Notwithstanding, accountants in automotive companies might not be aware of some transfer pricing risk factors even though they are the top priority for TRD such as high-risk transactions related to service and arm’s length price calculation and pricing policy. Besides, the participants might not aware enough of the risk mitigation method of setting the best pricing policy to maintain the profit within the profit range. To efficiently manage the risk, understanding business is the most important process before selecting a pricing policy. Thus, the best pricing policy should be selected after the business, including the risk-bearing function, is analyzed. Apart from the mentioned methods, APA is another effective risk mitigation method suggested by experts, specifically used to negotiate the profit level with the revenue department in advance.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Committee of Sponsoring Organization of the Treadway Commission (COSO). (2017). Enterprise Risk Management Integrating with Strategy and Performance: Executive Summary. (Online). Retrieved from http://www.coso.org/Documents/2017-COSO-ERM-Integrating-with-Strategy-and-PerformanceExecutive-Summary.pdf Eilifsen, A., Messier Jr, W. (2015). Materiality Guidance of the major public accounting firms. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 34(2), 3-26. DOI: 10.2308/ajpt-50882

Paranyu Vitanakorn, Sillapaporn Srijunpetch

Ernst and Young, (2012). Global transfer pricing tax authority survey: Perspective, interpretation and regulatory change. (Online). Retrieved from; http://www.eytax.jp/tax-library/thoughtleadership/pdf/2012 _Global_TP_Tax_Authority_Survey_E.pdf Huda, et al. (2017). The problem of transfer pricing in Indonesia taxation system. Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 139-143. Nevius, A. (2017). Amazon wins multimillion dollar transfer-pricing dispute with IRS. (Online). Retrieved from: https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2017/mar/amazon-wins-transfer-pricing-disputewith-irs-201716293.html Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2013). Action plan on based erosion and shifting profit. (Online). Retrieved from: http://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/taxation/action-plan-on-base -erosion-and-profit-shifting_9789264202719-en#page1 Rensburg, Jansen van L. (2012). Tax risk management: a framework for implementation. (Doctoral dissertation). University of Pretoria, South Africa. Sari, N., Hunar, R. (2015). Analysis Method of Transfer Pricing Used by Multinational Companies Related to Tax Avoidance and Its Consistencies to The Arms Length Principle. Binus Business Review, 6(3). doi: 0.21512/bbr.v6i3.944 Sikka, P., Willmott, H. (2010). The dark side of transfer pricing: Its role in Tax avoidance and wealth retentiveness. University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom. Urquidi, A., Thompson, J. (2010). The challenge of transfer pricing in the Asia Pacific region. Asian Journal of Public Affairs, 3(1), 60-75. Vann, R., Cooper, G., (2016). Transfer pricing money â€“ the chevron case. University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. Paranyu Vitanakorn is a student in the Master of Accounting Program at Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University. He is interested in Business Risk Management, Public Law, Risk Management and Insurance, Financial Analysis, Financial Accounting, Corporate Finance, Financial Reporting, Management Accounting.

Dr. Sillapaporn Srijunpetch is an Associate Professor at the Department of Accounting, Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University, Thailand. He got a Ph.D. (Accounting) from University of Manchester, UK. He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) of Thailand. He also works as an Auditing Standards committee and an Accounting Standards Review Subcommittee at the Thailand Federation of Accounting Professions. He is interested in Auditing, Corporate Governance and Corporate Risk Management.

*Corresponding author (P.Vitanakorn). Tel:+66-817541157 Email: paranyu.v@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.224

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A11U

FIELD MEASUREMENT AND SIMULATION VALIDATION OF INCIDENT IRRADIANCE ON VERTICAL FACADE IN TROPICAL COUNTRIES 1*

Azhar Ghazali , Lim Chin Haw 1 2

School of Housing, Building, and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA. Solar Energy Research Institute, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, MALAYSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 22 July 2019 Received in revised form 09 April 2020 Accepted 19 May 2020 Available online 01 June 2020

The comprehension of sun-powered radiation and the position of the sun is very crucial for photovoltaic application to ensure the photovoltaic module operate at an optimum level at any given site and orientation. To facilitate the growth of photovoltaic utilization, forecasting the solar irradiance using simulation tools has become an effective predictive measure to forecast the photovoltaic power generation. However, the accuracy of prediction in the simulation tool needs to verify through the validation process. This experiment was performed in the field test and the calculated data from this measurement was used to verify the data from the simulation. This study examines the errors and precision of the forecast model in the simulation system, based on the recommended validation measures. This field experiment covers eight different vertical façade configurations. The result indicates that vertical façade to the east and west exposed the most incident radiation.

Keywords: High-rise building; Vertical façade; Building integrated photovoltaic; Solar radiation; Renewable energy; System Advisor Model (SAM); Solar energy; Solar simulation.

1. INTRODUCTION For photovoltaic (PV) technology applications, the availability of direct solar exposure is essential to evaluate its electrical performance (Madhu and Gangadharan, 2016). In the evaluation process, the level of irradiance should be evaluated to ensure that the operation of the PV system is beneficial (Mohanty et al. 2015). Solar radiation is classified as radiant energy (electromagnetic energy) emitted by the sun, (Markvart. 2002). Due to normal daily and annual variability caused by the apparent motion of the sun, irregular climate shifts, and cloud cover, the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground is greatly unpredictable. *Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ©2020 International Transaction

Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.11 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A11U http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A11U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.225

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Design and resource optimization in the PV technology project is the two phases require to forecast and assess the power generation. Such measures require specific solar radiation data assessment. The design stage offers the requisite data for the configuration of the PV system and the feasibility studies. In the development stage, the average value of solar irradiation or Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) is adequate (Janjai and Deeyai, 2009). In the exploitation activity, however, demanded more precise solar radiation data estimate the system’s power output for the optimal operating period. Projections of solar irradiance are not expected to vary significantly from the estimates of PV power generation (Espinar et al. 2010) as PV electricity production is strongly linear based on global irradiance level (Mayer et al. 2008). Solar irradiance forecasts help the PV system operators to monitor the electricity supply for both near-term (system reserves and distribution) or longer-term (unit commitment and scheduling) duration (Nobre et al. 2016). The reliability of forecasting energy output at the PV plant gas a significant impact on the system’s financial operation and therefore on the price of electricity produced from the plant (Parson et al. 2005; Ortega-Vasquez et al. 2010). Nonetheless, inaccuracies in the prediction of solar irradiance and the PV power production could have major economic implications (Denholm and Margolis, 2007). It is very important to gain a better comprehension of solar activity particularly in tropical region countries where the cloud distribution is varying. Simulation models in the design for energy-efficient buildings are developed to support research into model-based controls, system integration, energy management, and financial evaluation during the design phase (Hu and Karava, 2014). Effective simulation tools capable of predicting system behavior provided from the previously unobserved condition will allow the designer to make changes to system or activity while evaluating the effect of system behavior and performance concurrently (Coakley et al. 2014). For the simulation tool to be useful for research, significant levels of accuracy are needed (Royapoor and Roskilly, 2015). The efficiency of the photovoltaic module is highly dependent on climatic conditions where the electricity output is determined by the sun's direction and sky condition during each day. It is very important to gain a better understanding of the inconsistencies of solar irradiance especially in countries in the tropical region where the cloud movement is high in variability. The goal of this paper is to observe the solar radiation incident on a vertical plane through long-term monitoring and to ascertain the most feasible vertical façade alignment for the PV system in Malaysia.

3. METHOD 3.1 EXPERIMENTAL SETUP AND SIMULATION CONFIGURATION Eight main orientations were considered in this field measurement study. The devices were mounted vertically at a fixed inclination angle (90°) with eight distinct latitudes, representing north, north-east, east, south-east, south, south-west, west, and north-west. For this field analysis, the LP Pyra 08 Pyranometer from Delta Ohm used to determine the amount of incident solar irradiation from each horizontal façade of the PV module. LP Pyra 08 determines the amount of direct solar insolation and diffused flat surface irradiance in Watt/m2. The pyranometer on each test unit was installed on a steel plate located in line with the module surface, on the side of the vertical surface, and between half of the surface’s height, 1600mm from the ground. The placement of this

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

pyranometer is based on the outdoor Test Reference Environment established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission for double skin façade application of BIPV (Bloem et al. 2012). Eight pyranometers were installed on 8 test units, which represents eight different azimuth angles. Figure 1 displays the structure diagram for the pyranometer and the data logger. The shading effect can reduce the incoming solar radiation on the measurement device. The position of this experiment has to be in the plane field with no neighboring human and natural-made structure that would create shade to the measurement device over the entire experimental time. Also, the shadow was avoided from the measuring equipment and the mounting structure.

Figure 1: Instrumentation arrangement to measure incident solar radiation. Based on the same instrumentation arrangement in the field test, the simulation process was undertaken using the System Advisor Model (SAM) created by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (SAM, 2012). Table 1: Kuala Lumpur’s coordinates and annual climate condition City Time zone Latitude Longitude Global horizontal Direct normal (beam) Diffuse horizontal Average temperature Average wind speed

Kuala Lumpur GMT 8 3.12 oN 101.55 oE 4.28 kWh/m2/day 1.02 kWh/m2/day 3.50 kWh/m2/day 27.2 oC 1.6 m/s

For this simulation, weather data from the US Department of Energy was used as it presents standard meteorological year data that are widely used in many building simulation programs. This climate data is in the format of IWEC (International Weather for Energy Calculations) produced by ASHRAE (American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers) measured using an analytical system based on the sun-earth geometry, recorded cloud cover and temperature differences. The estimation for direct normal solar radiation depends on the sun angle and the ratio of global horizontal and total related extra-terrestrial solar radiation. This weather information includes hourly amounts for mean and long-term measurements over normal years. Table 1 displays *Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ©2020 International Transaction

Kuala Lumpurâ€™s latitude and longitude, and regular solar output from the climate data. Figure 2 indicates the global, beam and diffuse irradiance at Kuala Lumpur. 200

W/m2

150 100 50 0

Jan Feb Mar Beam irradiance

Apr

May Jun Jul Diffuse irradiance

Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec Global horizontal irradiance

Figure 2: Average hourly global, beam, and diffuse irradiance according to a month in Kuala Lumpur.

3.2 VALIDATION METHOD BETWEEN SIMULATION ANS EXPERIMENTAL STUDY Refsgaard (1997) relates to the validation model or prediction steps as a method to demonstrate that a specific site, numerical simulation able to make a precise simulation. The process of accepting, refusing, or qualifying the model, the result must be identified and documented well before the assessment begins (US EPA, 2002). The basic percentage of different calculations frequently resulted in an effect of restitution, whereby over-estimates canceled under-evaluations (Coakley et al. 2014). The introduction of structured statistical indices would provide a clearer model of results (Bou-Saada and Haberl, 1994). 3.2.1 NASH-SUTCLIFFE EFFICIENCY (NSE) The NSE assessment model is the most common statistical model with comprehensive details on the values obtained (Servat and Dezetter, 1991) and the suggested use by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) (Legates and McCabe, 1999). The NSE standardized the statistic which calculated the relative significance of the residual variance and correlated the variation in the data measured (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970). The variance standardization of the observation sequence results in a fairly higher NSE value. The NSE value ranges between âˆž to 1.0, where NSE=1 is perceived to be an ideal value corresponding to the modelâ€™s good fit to the observed results. NSE = 0 specified that the prediction model is as precise as the average of the data observed. NSE = 0.0 to 1.0 can be seen as acceptable performance levels and NSE < 0.0 specified that the average value observed is a good predictor that the simulated value, indicating inappropriate output (Moriasi et al. 2007). The NSE equation is given as đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’” đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’? (đ?’€đ?’€đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? ) đ?’Šđ?’Š âˆ’ đ?’€đ?’€đ?’Šđ?’Š

đ?‘ľđ?‘ľđ?‘ľđ?‘ľđ?‘ľđ?‘ľ = đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? âˆ’ ďż˝âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’?đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? đ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Ž )đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? (đ?’€đ?’€đ?’Šđ?’Š âˆ’ đ?’€đ?’€

ďż˝

(1),

where, đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œ , the ith observation for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ , the ith simulated value for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œ đ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘š, the mean of observed data for the constituent being evaluated. n, the total number of observations.

3.2.2 THE PERCENT BIAS (PBIAS) The disparity between approaches referred to as the median of paired variations, which shows that the average one approach appears to underestimate or overstate the measurements of the second approach (Bartlett and Frost, 2008). The bias assessment tests the average propensity of the

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

simulated component value to be greater or lesser than the observed data and to indicate poor accuracy of the model (Gupta et al. 1999). The PBIAS approach is considered when aiming to evaluate a split-sample assessment (Moriasi et al. 2007). ASCE also suggests the PBIAS method. The PBIAS values are in percentage where, PBIAS = 0 indicates the accuracy of the model simulation data (optimal value), while PBIAS equivalent to positive value indicates the model underestimates bias and overestimates bias when negative PBIAS values. The PBIAS equation is đ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇđ?‘ˇ = ďż˝

đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’” âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’? ďż˝âˆ—đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? ďż˝đ?’€đ?’€đ?’Šđ?’Š âˆ’ đ?’€đ?’€đ?’Šđ?’Š đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’? đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’€đ?’€đ?’Šđ?’Š

ďż˝

(2),

where, đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œ , the ith observation for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ , the ith simulated value for the constituent being evaluated. n, the total number of observations. 3.2.3 ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR (RMSE) â€“ OBSERVATION STANDARD DEVIATION RATIO (RSR) To determine the accuracy of the prediction simulation model, the relative output measurement on the dataset must be considered. There are several other reliability metrics frequently used in model assessments. Which included Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The method of measurement is often named the performance metrics and the error-index (Cao and Tay, 2003). The outcome of these performance indicators is important as it provides the error in the units of the constituent of consideration which helps in the analysis of the results (Moriasi et al. 2007). Often known as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) calculates the average absolute deviation of the predicted value from the measured data (Adhikari and Agrawal, 2013). MAE indicates the amount of total error due to forecasting without taking into account the direction of error, and the lower MAE value shows a strong forecast. The formula to calculate the MAE is: đ?‘´đ?‘´đ?‘´đ?‘´đ?‘´đ?‘´ =

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

đ?’?đ?’?

âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’?đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?ďż˝đ?’€đ?’€đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? âˆ’ đ?’€đ?’€đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’” đ?’Šđ?’Š đ?’Šđ?’Š ďż˝

(3),

where, đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œ is the ith observation for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ is the ith simulated value for the constituent being evaluated. n, the total number of observations. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is among the most widely used error-index indicator evaluating the average inaccuracy (Chu and Shirmohammadi, 2004; Singh et al. 2004; VasquezAmabile and Engel, 2005). RMSE demonstrates the discrepancy between predicted and respective measured data in-square before average (Adhikari and Agrawal, 2013). If the RMSE and MAE values are less than half the SD of the measurement values, it may be considered small, and either is acceptable for model assessment (Singh et al.. 2004). The RMSE formula is given as đ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘š = ďż˝

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

đ?’?đ?’?

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

(4),

where, đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œ is the ith observation for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ is the ith simulated value for the constituent being evaluated. n, the total number of observations. Sing et al. also produced the simplified RMSE model using standard observation deviation, adding the error-index and additional details. Moriasi et al. (2007) suggest that the RSR output metrics combine the advantages of the error-index statistics and have a scaling/normalization *Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ÂŠ2020 International Transaction

component where the result value can be extended to the different constituents. The value of the RSR ranges from an ideal value of 0, which implies zero RMSE or residual variance, and thus optimal model simulation to a great positive value. The lesser the RSR value, the better the performance of the simulation model. This technique has known the RMSE-Observations Standard Deviation Ratio (RSR) and RSR measurement is written as đ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘š =

đ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘š

đ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘şđ?‘˝đ?‘˝đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?

ďż˝âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’? ďż˝đ?’€đ?’€đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? âˆ’ đ?’€đ?’€đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’”đ?’” ďż˝đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’Šđ?’Š đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’Šđ?’Š

(5),

ďż˝âˆ‘đ?’?đ?’? ďż˝đ?’€đ?’€đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’?đ?’? âˆ’ đ?’€đ?’€đ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Žđ?’Ž ďż˝đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’Šđ?’Š=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?’Šđ?’Š

where, đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œđ?‘œ is the ith observation for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œđ?‘–đ?‘–đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ đ?‘ is the ith simulated value for the constituent being evaluated. đ?‘Œđ?‘Œ đ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘šđ?‘š is the mean of observation value over n. n is the total number of observations.

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 4.1 FIELD TEST ANALYSIS

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

North NorthEast East SouthEast

7:00 7:20 7:40 8:00 8:20 8:40 9:00 9:20 9:40 10:00 10:20 10:40 11:00 11:20 11:40 12:00 12:20 12:40 13:00 13:20 13:40 14:00 14:20 14:40 15:00 15:20 15:40 16:00 16:20 16:40 17:00 17:20 17:40 18:00 18:20 18:40

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Irradiance (W/m2)

This section analyzed the incident solar radiation based on eight different latitude angles, on eight horizontal facades. Six months of solar radiation data can be obtained from the field measurement analysis due to limited time and required equipment. In this observational study, the analysis was considered for 12 hours of the daytime period between 7.00-19.00 hr., as well as the interval duration of two minutes of data obtained from the pyranometer. Figure 3 illustrates the November 2015 average hourly incident irradiance, and Figure 4 shows the frequency percentage of the irradiance level during the day. For the north and south faĂ§ade, the hourly trend of incident solar radiation is nearly identical during the day, gradually increasing from morning to peak around noon, and decreasing towards evening.

South SouthWest West NorthWest

Figure 3: Average hourly observation of incident solar radiation in November 2015 In the meantime, the south faĂ§ade obtained an irradiance amount of about 40% from 300 to 500W/m2. The northeast, east, and south-east horizontal plane recorded a higher degree of irradiance varying peak periods during morning hours; northeast at 9.00 a.m., east at 9.30 a.m. and south-east at 11.00 a.m. The south-east faĂ§ade had an irradiance level of approximately 16.7% between 500-600W/m2. Meanwhile during the evening period, the south-west, west, and north-west

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

Percentage Frequency (%)

horizontal plane received higher levels of irradiance. 80 60 40 20 0

North

Northeast

0-100

East

101-200

Southeast

201-300

South

301-400

Southwest 401-500

West

Northwest

501-600

Figure 4: Hourly percentage frequency of incident solar radiation in November 2015.

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

North NorthEast East SouthEast

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Irradiance (W/m2)

The same trend also occurred in December 2015. Figure 5 and Figure 6 display the average hourly and percentage of the incident solar radiation in December. North, northeast, and northwest irradiance level was below 200W/m2. Approximately 28.6% of the amount of irradiance on the east façade was above 300W/m2 while 9.7% on the west. However, on the south-east horizontal plane, about 15% of the irradiance level was between 500-700W/m2.

South SouthWest West NorthWest

Percentage Frequency (%)

Figure 5: Hourly analysis of incident solar radiation in December 2015 80 60 40 20 0

North 0-100

NorthEast 101-200

East

SouthEast

201-300

301-400

South

SouthWest

401-500

501-600

West

NorthWest

601-700

Figure 6: Hourly percentage frequency of incident solar radiation in December 2015 The highest incident irradiance reported in January between 10.00 a.m to noon on the southeast façade. The irradiance level ranges between 600-700W/m2 are 16.1%. The second highest was on the east façade between 9:00-11:00 a.m. with a 15.8% irradiance level ranges 500-600W/m2. Whereas, for other vertical plane orientations, the average irradiance level is below 500W/m2 during January, with the north façade remaining low on incident solar radiation. Figures 7 and 8 display the January average hourly and percentage level on the vertical incident solar irradiance. *Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ©2020 International Transaction

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

North NorthEast East SouthEast

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

South SouthWest West

NorthWest

Figure 7: Hourly analysis of incident solar radiation in January 2016. Percentage Frequency (%)

80 60 40 20 0

North

0-100

NorthEast

101-200

East

201-300

SouthEast

301-400

South

401-500

SouthWest

501-600

West

NorthWest

601-700

Figure 8: Hourly percentage frequency of incident solar radiation in January 2016

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

North NorthEast East SouthEast

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Irradiance (W/m2)

The average incident solar radiation level on all vertical façade, however, is below 600W/m2 in February. During this month’s morning hours, 16.7% and 10.6% of the irradiance rates reported on the south-east and east facades were between 500-600W/m2. The south-west and west façade displayed higher irradiance levels for 15:00-16:40 with 12.8%, and 10.8% irradiance level is 400500W/m2. Other façade orientations, see Figures 9 and 10, remain below 400W/m2 .

South SouthWest West NorthWest

Figure 9: Hourly analysis of incident solar radiation in February 2016.

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

Percentage Frequency (%)

80 60 40 20 0

North

NorthEast

0-100

East

101-200

SouthEast

201-300

South

301-400

SouthWest

401-500

West

NorthWest

501-600

Figure 10: Hourly percentage frequency of incident solar radiation in February 2016. In the morning and evening hours of March, the average hourly incident solar radiation on the east and west vertical orientation displayed higher measurement. From 9:20 a.m. until 10:20 am, the east façade recorded about 7% incident irradiance in the range between 600-700W/m2. Meanwhile, from 15.30 to 16.30 the western façade earned the maximum, with an irradiance between 500600W/m2. Throughout the day, however, the morning period irradiance level is higher than the evening period. Figure 11 and Figure 12 indicate the March average hourly and percentage frequency of vertical incident solar radiation. North NorthEast East SouthEast

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100

7:00 7:16 7:32 7:48 8:04 8:20 8:36 8:52 9:08 9:24 9:40 9:56 10:12 10:28 10:44 11:00 11:16 11:32 11:48 12:04 12:20 12:36 12:52 13:08 13:24 13:40 13:56 14:12 14:28 14:44 15:00 15:16 15:32 15:48 16:04 16:20 16:36 16:52 17:08 17:24 17:40 17:56 18:12 18:28 18:44

South SouthWest West NorthWest

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100

Percentage Frequency (%)

Figure 11: Hourly analysis of incident solar radiation in March 2016. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

North

0-100

NorthEast

101-200

East

201-300

SouthEast

301-400

South

401-500

SouthWest

501-600

West

NorthWest

601-700

Figure 12: Hourly percentage frequency of incident solar radiation in March 2016 A certain pattern happened in April as well. In the morning duration northeast, east and southeast façade recorded the highest incident solar radiation, with a peak about 10.00 am and gradually decline towards midday. Meanwhile, the incident irradiance amount has gradually increased towards noon on the southeast, west, and northeast. Around 13.00 the irradiance level on this façade has risen and reached its peak at about 15.00. Figure 13 and Figure 14 indicates the April average *Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ©2020 International Transaction

hourly and percentage level of the vertical incident solar radiation North NorthEast East SouthEast

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100

South SouthWest West NorthWest

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100

Percentage Frequency (%)

Figure 13: Hourly analysis of incident solar radiation in April 2016. 50 40 30 20 10 0

North

NorthEast

0-100

East

101-200

SouthEast

201-300

South

301-400

SouthWest

401-500

West

NorthWest

501-600

Figure 14: Hourly percentage frequency of incident solar radiation in April 2016 Figure 15 shows the mean irradiance per month. The south-east façade received the maximum incident irradiance with a mean value of 248W/m2 in November, followed by 233W/m2 and 213W/m2 (respectively) on the south and east façade. The highest mean incident irradiance recorded in December was on the southern façade with 270 W/m2 followed by southeastern and southwestern façade with 263W/m2 and 208W/m2 (respectively). The North façade remained the lowest obtained incident irradiance. Meanwhile, the highest reading was observed with 304W/m2 on the south-east façade in January, followed by 296W/m2 and 227W/m2 on the south and south-west façade. The south-east façade also recorded the highest incident solar radiation in February compared to another with an average of 264W/m2 and then the north (239W/m2) and south (235W/m2) followed. Meanwhile in March, as the declination angle of the sun in the equatorial region is almost 0o, the eastern façade obtained the highest mean incident solar radiation compared to another vertical façade with 267W/m2 , followed by south-east, northeast and west façade with 251W/m2, 203W/m2 , 199W/m2 (respectively). However, with 135W/m2 and 162W/m2 the lowest mean incident irradiance obtained by the north and south facades. The sun position is marginally on Malaysia’s northern side in April; the southern vertical façade recorded the lowest mean incident solar radiation compared to another façade with 146W/m2 while irradiance on the northern façade has risen to 190W/m2. Morning sunlight led to an increase in the east and northeast facades receiving the highest mean with 248W/m2 and 226W/m2 of incident solar radiation. Table 2 gives the summary of mean vertical incident solar radiation over six months.

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

NorthWest

West

North 350 300 250 200 150 115 100 128 50 0

NorthEast

SouthWest

213 248

233

NorthWest

138

156

184

North 350 300 250 200 150 100 109 125 50 0

East

West

SouthEast

169

SouthWest

208

South

NorthWest

159 West

210

SouthWest

220

123

NorthWest

East

204

West

263 270

SouthEast

SouthWest

North West

NorthEast

161

174 239

East

West

199

264 235

188

SouthEast

South West

South

162

239

East

SouthEast

296 South

January 2016

North East

NorthWest

203 203

267

East

West

201

North 350 300 250 200 190 150 100 50 0

174 146

251

NorthEast

226 248

South East

East

204

SouthWest

SouthEast South

South

February 2016

135

304

227

December 2015 North 350 300 250 200 150 135 100 50 0

NorthEast

186

South

November 2015 North 350 300 250 200 150 100 121 50 0

NorthEast

North 350 300 250 200 150 100 113 137 50 0

March 2016

April 2016

Figure 15: Mean incident irradiance according to month. Table 2: Summary of mean incident irradiance of 8 façade orientation in six months. Façade Orientation Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

North 115 109 113 121 135 190

Northeast 138 123 135 161 203 226

East 213 204 239 239 267 248

Southeast 248 263 304 264 251 204

South 233 270 296 235 162 146

Southwest 184 208 227 220 188 174

West 156 169 186 210 199 201

Northwest 128 125 137 159 174 203

4.2 VALIDATION ANALYSIS Predicated on the hourly result, it can prove that the pattern of incident solar radiation is about the same on each vertical façade, where the vertical north and south reaches the high point at midday between 13.00-14.00. During the morning time, the northeastern, eastern and southeastern façade display higher irradiance while southwestern, western, and northwestern façade in the evening period. On the northern façade, the simulation average data is higher than on the field test data. Whereas the measured data showed higher irradiance compared to the simulation data. The mean variation in the east, south-east and south façade is greater while the north-east, southwest, west, and north-west façade are smaller. In Figure 16 to Figure 23 below, this result can be seen in the mean and standard deviation error bar on each façade configuration. Table 3: Forecast/error indicator between measured and simulated data of incident irradiance on each vertical orientation Forecast/error indicator NSE PBIAS MAE MSE RMSE STDEV RSTDEV RSR

N 0.90 -6.15 20.75 635.02 25.20 6095.38 78.07 0.32

NE 0.86 5.14 27.28 1668.33 40.85 11709.55 108.21 0.38

E 0.72 22.34 61.75 8835.76 94.00 31566.31 177.67 0.53

SE 0.70 25.80 68.91 11280.55 106.21 37084.07 192.57 0.55

S 0.85 16.79 39.98 2960.41 54.41 19288.4 138.88 0.39

SW 0.84 7.35 37.58 2582.29 50.82 15707.23 125.33 0.41

W 0.78 4.51 39.62 3034.73 55.09 13573.21 116.50 0.47

NW 0.82 0.24 29.61 1536.75 39.20 8499.29 92.19 0.43

SAM

North

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Irradiance (W/m2)

Nov 500

Dec

Jan

Feb

North

400

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

300 200 100 0

Measured

SAM

Mac

Measured 9423.81 302.85 0 78.58 120.82 6174.54

Apr

SAM 10003.69 247.73 0 80.73 128.25 6518.00

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Northest

SAM

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradince (W/m2)

Figure 16: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on the North facade.

Nov Irradiance (W/m2)

500

Dec

Jan

Feb

Northeast

400

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

300 200 100 0

Measured

SAM

Mac

Measured 11883.89 435.20 0 108.91 152.36 11861.62

Apr

SAM 11273.29 319.04 0 90.11 144.53 8119.18

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

SAM

East

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

Figure 17: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on the Northeast faรงade.

Irradiance (W/m2)

Nov 500

Dec

Jan

East

400 300 200 100 0

Feb

Measured

SAM

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

Mac

Measured 17072.52 641.90 0 178.82 218.88 31976.26

Apr

SAM 13258.52 360.62 0 112.72 169.98 12705.11

Figure 18: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on East facade.

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

Southeast

Nov Irradiance (W/m2)

SAM

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

500

Dec

Jan

Feb

Southeast

400

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

300 200 100 0

Measured

SAM

Mac

Apr

Measured 18508.13 664.72 0 193.82 237.28 37565.68

SAM 13733.83 394.19 0 119.77 176.07 14343.81

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

SAM

South

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

Figure 19: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on Southeast facade

Irradiance (W/m2)

Nov 500

Dec

Jan

Feb

South

400

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

300 200 100 0

Measured

SAM

Mac

Measured 15955.34 504.98 -0.04 139.78 204.56 19538.90

Apr

SAM 13276.89 362.15 0 114.66 170.22 13145.78

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Southwest

SAM

Nov Irradiance (W/m2)

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

Figure 20: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on the South faĂ§ade

500

Dec

Jan

Southwest

400 300 200 100 0

Feb

Measured

SAM

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

Mac

Apr

Measured 14308.31 433.82 0 126.14 183.44 15911.22

SAM 13257.35 359.22 0 115.28 169.97 13289.06

Figure 21: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on the Southwest facade.

*Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ÂŠ2020 International Transaction

West SAM

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Irradiance (W/m2)

Nov

Dec

500

Jan

Feb

West

400

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

300 200 100 0

Measured

SAM

Mac

Measured 13403.31 434.60 0 117.26 171.84 13749.49

Apr

SAM 12798.19 353.06 0 108.44 164.08 11760.13

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Northwest

SAM

Measured

0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Irradiance (W/m2)

Figure 22: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on the West facade

Irradiance (W/m2)

Nov 500 400 300 200 100 0

Dec

Jan

Feb

Northwest

Measured

SAM

Sum Max Min STDEV Mean Variance

Mac

Apr

Measured 11137.20 389.99 0 92.79 142.78 8609.68

SAM 11110.79 313.58 0 89.74 142.45 8052.74

Figure 23: Hourly measured and simulated incident irradiance on the Northwest facade.

Table 3 shows the results of the statistical method of validation analysis between the measured and simulated data. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) indicator indicates the difference between the data and the simulation data are below the appropriate range of 0.7 but near to the ideal value of 1. The bias comparison of the simulation data to measured data using PBIAS showed that the simulated data had overestimated the irradiance of almost 6.15% on the northern faรงade, whereas SAM has underestimated the data on other orientations. SAM has underestimated the eastern and southeastern faรงade approximately between 22% to 25%, but in the northwestern faรงade, the percentage bias is 0.25% which is close to the ideal value of 0%. Additionally, the simulation data error-index based on the MSE indicator showed that the value of each faรงade orientation is less than half of the STDEV value, suggesting that the simulated data is a suitable model for this study. The standardized RMSE to Observation Standard Deviation Ratio showed that in every faรงade configuration the error in simulation is relatively small with RSR of 0.55. This result suggests that the computed incident irradiance in the SAM simulation model is nearly fit to the observed data in the field measurement.

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

4.3 ANNUAL INCIDENT IRRADIANCE ON VERTICAL FACADE The simulation analysis in SAM based on the same specification continued to evaluate which vertical façade orientation obtained the highest incident solar radiation in one year under Malaysian climatic conditions. The result indicates that the eastern façade obtained the highest mean daily solar radiation at 168.9W/m2 followed by the western façade at 163.7W/m2 , see Figure 24. Whereas, with 144W/m2 and 150W/m2 , the northern and southern façade obtained the lowest incident irradiance. Table 4 presented the average daily incident irradiance based on SAM analysis for each façade alignment. North

Northwest

West

170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130

Northeast

East

Southwest

Southeast W/m2

South

Figure 24: Mean daily incident irradiance (simulated) Table 4: Summary of mean daily incident irradiance on each orientation. Mean Daily STDEV

N 144.45 93.2

NE 156.45 101.6

E 168.79 112.5

SE 161.01 108.8

S 150.06 102.0

SW 156.85 104.1

W 163.74 107.7

NW 153.48 100.1

5. CONCLUSION Based on the field measurement of incident irradiance on vertical façade orientation in Malaysia, the northern and southern façade received the least incident irradiance throughout the analysis period and reached its highest irradiance level during the noon period. During the morning period North, Northeast, and East vertical façade received higher incident irradiance, while South, Southwest, and West are during the evening period. The forecast or error indicator between field measurement data and simulated data have shown that the incident solar radiation on the vertical façade calculated by the System Advisor Model is almost fit for the field measurement data. Thus, based on SAM analysis of yearly incident irradiance on vertical façade in Malaysia, East, West, Southeast, and Southwest orientation received the highest mean irradiance compared to another vertical facade. The finding indicates that building façade for these orientations has better energy output for vertical PV applications in Malaysia's climate condition.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Adhikari R and Agrawal R K (2013). An Introductory Study on Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, Germany, LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing *Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ©2020 International Transaction

Bartlett, J.W. and Frost, C. (2008). Reliability, repeatability, and reproducibility: analysis of measurement errors in continuous variables. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol. 31: 466-475. Bloem, J.J., Lodi, C., Cipriano, J., Chemisana, D. (2012). An outdoor test reference environment for double skin application of building integrated photovoltaic system. Energy and Building 50: 63-73. Bou-Saada, TE, Haberl JS. An improved procedure for developing calibrated hourly simulation models. In: Proceedings of the 5th international IBPSA conference. Montréal, Canada; 1995 Cao, L.J and Tay, F.E.H 2003 Support Vector Machine with Adaptive Parameters in Financial Time Series Forecasting. In: IEEE Transaction on Neural Networks, 14(6), 1506-1518 Chu, T. W., and A. Shirmohammadi. (2004). Evaluation of the SWAT model’s hydrology component in the piedmont physiographic region of Maryland. Trans. ASAE 47(4): 1057-1073. Coakley, D., Raftery, P., and Keane, M. (2014). A review of methods to match building energy simulation models to measured data. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 37: 123-141. Denholm, P., and Margolis, R. (2007). Evaluating the limits of solar photovoltaics (PV) in traditional electric power systems. Energy Policy. vol. 35, 2007. Espinar, B., Aznerte, J.L., Girard, R., Moussa, A.M., Karinio-Takis, G. (2010). Photovoltaic Forecasting: A state of the art. 5th European PV-Hybrid and Mini-Grid Conference, Apr 2010, Tarragona, Spain. OTTI - Ostbayerisches Technologie-Transfer-Institut, 250-255. Gupta, H. V., S. Sorooshian, and P. O. Yapo. 1999. Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: Comparison with multilevel expert calibration. J. Hydrologic Eng. 4(2), 135-143. Hu, J., and Karava, P. (2014). A state-space modeling approach and multi-level optimization algorithm for predictive control of multi-zone buildings with mixed-mode cooling. Building and Environment, 80, 259-273. Janjai, S., and Deeyai, P. (2009). Comparison of methods for generating typical meteorological year using meteorological data from a typical environment. Applied Energy 85: 528-537 Legates, D.R. and McCabe, G. J. (1999) Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research. 35(1), 233-241. Madhu, V., and Gangadharan, K. (2016). Temporal distribution of column ozone over Cochin – A study based on the in-situ measurement and ECMWF reanalysis. Scientific Research. 6(2): 11-20. Markvart, T. (2002). Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conversion. European Summer University: Energy for Europe 2002. http://www.soton.ac.uk/~solar/files/Strasbourg.pdf. Mayer, D., Wald, L., Poissant, Y., and Pelland, S. (2008). Performance prediction of grid-connected photovoltaic systems using remote sensing. Technical Report IEA-PVPS T2-07:2008, International Energy Agency - Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA - PVPS Task 2). Mohanty, P., Muneer, T., Gago, E.J., Kotak, Y. 2015. Solar radiation fundamentals and PV system components. Solar Photovoltaic System Applications, Green Energy, and Technology, 7-47. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-14663-8_2 Moriasi, D.N., Arnold, J.G., Van Liew, M.W., Bingner, R.L., Harmel, R.D., Veith, T.L. (2007). Model evaluation guideline for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. 50(3): 885-900. Nash, J.E. and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models: Part 1. A discussion of principles. Journals of Hydrology. 10(3), 282-290. Nobre, A.M., Severiano, C.A., Karthik, S., Kubis, M., Zhao, L., Martins, F.R., Pereira, E.B., Reindl., T. 2016. PV power conversion and short-term forecasting in a tropical, densely built environment in Singapore. Renewable Energy 94: 496-509. Ortega-Vazquez, M.A.; Kirschen, D.S. 2010 Assessing the impact of wind power generation on operating costs. IEEE T. Smart Grids 1: 295–301.

Azhar Ghazali, Lim Chin Haw

Servat, E., and Dezetter, A. 1991. Selection of calibration of objective functions in the context of rainfallrunoff modeling in a Sudanese savannah area. Hydrological Science Journal, 36(4), 307-330. Refsgaard, J. C. (1997). Parameterisation, calibration, and validation of distributed hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology, 198(1): 69-97 Royapoor, M and Roskilly, T. (2015). Building model calibration using energy and environmental data. Energy and Building, 94: 109-120. Singh, J., H. V. Knapp, and M. Demissie. (2004). Hydrologic modeling of the Iroquois River watershed using HSPF and SWAT. ISWS CR 2004-08. Champaign, Ill.: Illinois State Water Survey. http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/pubdoc/CR/ ISWSCR2004-08.pdf. Accessed September 2005. SAM (2012). National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Golden, CO. System Advisor Model Version 2012.5.11 (SAM 2012.5.11) US EPA. 2002. Guidance for quality assurance project plans for modeling. EPA QA/G-5M. Report EPA/240/R-02/007. Washington, D.C.: U.S. EPA, Office of Environmental Information. WMO. (2012). Guide to meteorological instruments and methods of observation. World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No.8. Dr. Muhamad Azhar Bin Ghazali is a Lecturer in Architecture at School of Housing, Building, and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia. His research emphasizes on Solar Radiation on Building, Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV), Low-Carbon Building, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Building Design, Passive & Active Architecture.

Ar. Dr. Lim Chin Haw is a Senior Research Fellow at the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), University Kebangsaan Malaysia, and a Professional Registered Architect with the Malaysia Board of Architects. His research involves solar energy with the industrial sector and international collaboration with many organizations including Fraunhofer Solar Energy Research Institute, Germany. His expertise covers Building Integrated PV System (BIPV), Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Building Performance Simulation, Passive and Low Energy Architecture, Solar Assisted AirConditioning System, and Natural Ventilation.

Note: The original of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at the 4th International Conference-Workshop on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design (ICWSAUD2019), a joint conference with 4th International Conference on Engineering, Innovation, and Technology, during 24-26 June 2019 at Vistana Penang Bukit Jambul Hotel, Penang, Malaysia.

*Corresponding author (Azhar Ghazali). Tel: +604 653 3888 Email: azhar.ghazali@usm.my ÂŠ2020 International Transaction

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