3. The State of Current Knowledge and Gaps: Global Perspectives versus Local Realities

5. Conclusions and

Recommendations

5.1: Conclusion

The complexities of climate change mean that it compounds existing issues regarding human mobility and further complicates efforts to detangle the various factors influencing and affecting migration. Nevertheless, as this research highlights, it is essential that efforts are made to study the dimensions of climate induced migrations, as it is a human rights and security concern. Every individual has a right to a dignified life, decent livelihood opportunities, and safe and legal mobility. Countries in the Global South, such as Pakistan, have a negligible carbon footprint but suffer the most severe climate change impacts. Therefore, when climate disaster strikes, or declining ecological conditions impact and force communities to migrate, it is the international community’s collective responsibility to ensure the safety and protection of those communities, as well as to support their sustainable development. This can be safeguarded through the formation of legally binding frameworks and investments that build the resilience of developing countries.

It is important to note that the lack of knowledge regarding climate induced migration among key stakeholders can also be a result of traditional migration practices in the country. The climate induced migration patterns identified by the respondents of this research are in the same direction as the migration streams that have historically taken place in Pakistan. In Sindh, people are moving from coastal regions (Kharo Chan and Keti Bander) towards the big cities. Temporary migrations to escape flooding are turning into permanent migrations, where vulnerable people are forced to settle in urban slums in nearby cities like Thatta, while those with resources are moving towards mega cities like Karachi. GLOF events and flash floods are recognised as the main climate hazards in the Northern and Central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa zone, while droughts have been the key threats to the people living in Southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa districts. The Northern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have a very long history of GLOFs, but in the last two decades, both the intensity and frequency of these events have increased. Over the last 17 years in particular, the district of Chitral (villages like Yarkhon Lasht, Brep, Sonoghor, Bindo Gol, Reshun, Booni and Golen) experienced more than 13 glacial outburst floods in different valleys, displacing several households and forcing them to live in temporary shelters for years. Moreover, some households migrated from their native valleys permanently. Climate induced migrations in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region are mostly towards the capital city of Peshawar and nearby urban cities.

Due to ever long-lasting and repeated spells of drought, the people in Balochistan are increasingly undertaking seasonal and more permanent migration. Consistent with traditional migration patterns, the people of Balochistan are either moving towards the capital city of Quetta or towards other urban centers like Hub Chowki and further towards Karachi in Sindh. Communities from Khuzdar are migrating towards Sindh, while people from Barkhan and nearby regions are moving towards Punjab.

Climate Change

impacts Indirect consequences

Rapid onset disasters

Slow onset disasters

Place of origin

Temporary Displacement

Place of origin Economic

resources

political

adaptive capacitty

culture Environmental

Social

While it may seem natural to move to big cities for livelihood opportunities and a better standard of living, as it has traditionally been the case for many communities, increasing unplanned movements in the form of climate induced migrations will continue to exert pressure on already hard pressed urban cities, aggravating urbanisation challenges for Pakistan. As reflected in this study, climate change and migration are highly correlated. It is imperative that we confront this link as several studies forecast that mass human displacements are expected to take place in the twenty-first century. Climate impacts, both rapid and slow-onset, are compounded by a wide range of factors including social, economic, political and even cultural aspects within a community that may induce migration. Unplanned and forced migration in a country like Pakistan, with a population of over 200 million (with ethnic divisions, poverty and limited resources, among other factors), all of which are in the direction of the capital cities and already stressed urban centers, will further compound climate risks. A warmer climate has now become inevitable, but how we respond to climate change will determine the magnitude of the costs and consequences that we will face. For a nation that lacks resources for building resilience to disasters and good governance, the stress that climate change induced migration will bring will have the potential to shake the country’s stability and stir conflicts.

5.2: Recommendations

Based on the findings obtained from the study conducted in three different regions of Pakistan, the preliminary suggestions on policy options can be divided into two categories to focus attention on mechanisms to address and manage climate processes and adaptation to climate events;

For the International community:

1. Acknowledge that the concept of climate induced migration is not limited to transboundary movements, but also includes internal and localised migration within a country, which is mostly found in less developed, vulnerable, and desert regions and from landlocked and island countries.

2. Develop consensus among policymakers and scientists/academia for a wider understanding of the underlying factors behind climate induced migration.

3. Mainstream climate induced migration responses within climate change planning, response and financing.

4. Create partnerships and work with the existing system of the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) to take a lead and build consensus to formulate a legal definition of ‘climate migration’, especially internal, as opposed to the existing concept of refugees. Propose protection measures to ensure equal economic opportunities for climate migrants without any social stigma and a blueprint for assisting climate migrants as a guiding principle that can be used by parties.

5. Strengthen joint analysis and sharing of information to better map, understand, predict and address migration movements, such as those that may result from sudden-onset and slow-onset natural disasters, the adverse effects of climate change, environmental degradation, as well as other precarious situations. 6. Develop adaptation and resilience strategies against sudden-onset and slow-onset natural disasters, the adverse effects of climate change and environmental degradation, such as desertification, land degradation, drought and sea level rise, taking into account the potential implications for migration.

7. International frameworks and agreements, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction, should incorporate climate induced migration in their agenda and goals and address the needs of climate induced migrants in their priority actions.

8. Ensure that climate induced migrants have support and access to basic services.

9. Ensure that support provided to climatevulnerable communities is well informed and culturally sensitive.

10. Minimise the structural factors that increase people’s vulnerability and compel them to migrate by ensuring continued commitment to and implementation of Agenda 2030, the Paris

Agreement and the Sendai Framework for

Disaster Risk Reduction.

11. Acknowledge that religious and cultural heritage are key to a family’s resilience in climate policies.

12. The climate finance to be provided under the

Paris Agreement to the Global South should include the provision for climate induced migrants. Ensure that migrant and vulnerable communities have access to the required resources to facilitate the migration or restoration of their livelihoods.