Miami Report Q1 Update 2021

Q1 UPDATE - APRIL 2021 2021

South Florida’s Unprecedented Real Estate Market

MLS Single Family Homes

REASON FOR OPTIMISM

Single Family Homes Break 6 Records in 5 Months

Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties Total Active Listings Analysis for Single Family Homes 12 YEAR RECORD LOW 10,000

9,801 15 YEAR RECORD LOW

8,597

9,000

20 YEAR RECORD LOW

8,092

8,000

25 YEAR RECORD LOW

7,281 7,000

PREVIOUS ALL TIME RECORD LOW

6,697

NEW RECORD LOW

6,149

6,000

5,000

Mid Nov 2020 Source: MLS

Mid Dec 2020

Mid Jan 2021

Mid Feb 2021

Mid Mar 2021

End Mar 2021

MLS CONDOS

New Transaction Analysis for Single Family Homes vs Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties Single Family Homes

Condos

60%

60% 54% 46%

51%

49%

40%

40%

20%

0%

2020-Q3 Source: MLS

2020-Q4

2021-Q1

Condo Active Listings Analysis in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties Condo Active Listings

22,250

22,457

20,000

19,988 10-YEAR LOW

17,250

17,249

15,000

2020 - Q3 Source: MLS

2020 - Q4

2021 - Q1

What is the Real Estate Rule of Thumb?

10% or more of inventory = Buyer’s market

10% or less of inventory = Seller’s market

Condo MLS Resale Market Snapshot Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami, The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012

Q3 2020

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

% Active

Total Active MLS Listings

% Active

Total Active MLS Listings

% Active

(2012-2020)

Total Active MLS Listings

Brickell

5,522

787

14.25%

688

12.64%

618

11.19%

Downtown Miami/Biscayne Corridor

5,232

733

14.01%

674

12.88%

608

11.62%

The Beaches

3,842

655

17.05%

639

16.63%

503

13.09%

Aventura/North Miami Beach

1,442

366

25.38%

322

22.33%

219

15.19%

Coconut Grove/Key Biscayne

638

85

13.32%

55

8.62%

48

7.52%

1,265

111

8.77%

132

10.43%

93

7.35%

17,941*

2,737

15.26%

2,510

13.99%

2,089

11.64%

Total Units Delivered

Fort Lauderdale Totals

B * Under construction/pre-construction projects not included, only those with certificate of occupancy.

Source: MLS

U

Y

E

R

S

M

A

R

K

E

T

New Condo Resales New condos built since 2012 Coconut Grove to East Fort Lauderdale

431

2021

Condo Resales projected to surpass 2020

by June

JAN - MAR 50% of 2020 Sales

871

2020 Jan - Dec

755

2019 Jan - Dec 100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

New Construction

(Previous Cycle Condos 2012 - 2020)

PREVIOUS CYCLE

New Construction Condo Summary Coconut Grove to Fort Lauderdale, Traditional New Condos East of I-95 Traditional Condos are defined as Condos with no short-term rentals

95% Sold

REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY

as of April 2021

SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS

1,036

18,435

Remaining Developer Inventory

Total Sold Units

600 / 1,036 are the remaining units of STANDING INVENTORY

19,471

Total Units Released since 2012 Source: Developer Onsite Sales Offices, Developer Sales Reports and Broker Contacts

Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Built Since 2012

Coconut Grove to East Fort Lauderdale TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE

7 7

Elysee Grove Arbor 57th Ocean Monaco Yacht Club & Residences

6

The Estates at Acqualina South Tower 2000 Ocean

5

Four Season’s Private Residences

4

4

Aston Martin Missoni Baia The Estates at Acqualina North Tower Aurora

3

2

1

Mr. C Residences*

1

Solemar Residences*

1

Una Residences*

1

0

2021

2022

Source: Miami-Dade & Broward County Tax Records and Developer onsite sales office

2023

2024

2025 *Projected

30 Year Condo Delivery Analysis for Condos East of I-95 TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE

60,000

58,953

50,000

40,000

30,000

19,971

20,000

CONDOS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION

1,631

*

10,000

0

2001-2010

2011-2020

2021-2030

(previous decade)

(last decade)

(current decade)

Source: Miami-Dade & Broward County Tax Records and Developer onsite sales office

*Projected

A New Cycle Begins

Brickell

Downtown Miami

Pompano Beach

Related kicks off new condo cycle, teases Baccarat Branded Condo in Brickell, March 2021

Waldorf Astoria Miami, planned as the tallest residential tower south of Manhattan, launches Sales, March 2021

Related launches sales at Solemar, a luxury condo planned for Pompano Beach, March 2021

Population/ Demand

February 2021

In New York, we are witnessing, for the first time in a century and a half, the collapse of the commuter model. You had to be in the magic metropolis if you were going to be in the top of your profession. But now, you do not have to be in the city, the top people are everywhere.

February 2021

New York needs to hold on to the wealthy - the top 5% percent in New York pay 62% of state income taxes. The Partnership for New York City reports 300,000 residents of high-income neighborhood have filed change-of address forms with the U.S. Postal Service and are going to lower-tax and no-income-tax states.

Peggy Noonan Weekly columnist for WSJ, contributor to NBC News and ABC News & a primary speechwriter to President Ronald Reagan

January 2021

Florida is fast becoming the Second Home for Wall Street.

Domestic Florida Migration Since 2018 (Tax Payers & Dependents)

- January 2020

NEW YORK

CONNECTICUT

NEW JERSEY

ILLINOIS

MASSACHUSETTS

1. Florida

1. Florida

1. Florida

1. Florida

1. Florida

2. New Jersey

2. Texas

2. North Carolina

2. Texas

2. Georgia

3. North Carolina

3. North Carolina

3. Georgia

3. Indiana

3. Texas

Source: MLS

South Florida Condo Buyer Profile Trend Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties LATIN AMERICA DOMESTIC

50%

49%

49%

10%

0%

2010

23%

U.S. / DOMESTIC

U.S. more than doubles in 10 years.

L AT I N A M E R I C A

20%

21% U.S. / DOMESTIC

30%

L AT I N A M E R I C A

40%

2020

April 2021 “New York is seeing how much dough it can squeeze out of millionaires’ paychecks without pushing them to Fisher Island. The changes mean that the wealthiest New York City residents will face the highest combined local and state personal income rate in the country, surpassing California. Which makes many NYC leaders, including mayoral candidates Andrew Yang and Ray McGuire, anxious that the tax hike could lead to a 1970s-esque corporate exodus, when the city lost half its Fortune 500 companies.”

Takeaways

1.

2.

3.

4.

Declining Developer and Resale Inventory

Historic Low Interest Rates

Continued Population Growth/Demand

Supply Shock

Q1 UPDATE - APRIL 2021 2021