Diploma - phase 1: Library of Knowledge and Parameters for Design

a personal collection for my diagrammatic future vision

library of knowledge and parameters for design

isaak elias skjeseth bashevkin diploma / spring 2015

1 of 3

project

booklet

introduction

personal background This project is in many ways the natural culmination of my studies at AHO - The Oslo School of Architecture and Design.

After my first three years at AHO - where everyone follows the same curriculum - I quickly became interested in energy- and environmentally conscious architecture and urban design. During my master-level studies I have taken part in an elective course on energy-positive buildings and an associated student competition. Following this I teamed up with four other students in a self-programmed studio course designing an energy positive project for a combined service center and dealership for BMW/Bilia. It was linked to a main course on urban timber architecture. As in the previous courses, I carried out detailed life-cycle energy and emission calculations according to methods developed at the center for Zero Emission Buildings and applied in the pilot projects of the Norwegian Powerhouse alliance.

But all along I have felt dissatisfied by the narrow system boundaries of the building projects and by the lack of clear perspective and strategies for handling larger neighborhoods and cities. I have also felt the necessity of connecting the global and local perspectives, a connection that far too rarely is discussed and established. bridging the perspective gap Great work is being done in creating and developing architecture that can and will

introduction become integrated in a balanced future.

Changes are happening, and we are truly getting closer to where we need to be.

Enormous efforts are also being made to research, calculate, predict and communicate the consequences of human impact on a planetary scale. Regretably the research results are primarilty used to explain that the environment is important, and that things have to change. To a lesser extent do they help the readers and users find out what can and should be done.

In the field of urbanism, urban design and in the structuring of how we connect all the different places and aspects of our lives, there are also many initiatives and plans for “green cities”.

The complexity of the problem necessitates stepwise and thematic approaches, and many examples are located in other climatic zones.

aspects of the project controversial. That is perfectly natural given the complexity of the problem. Yet, I feel that the different aspects of my project are well founded in existing research and knowledge. project structure The project consists of a series of three booklets, linked to the three main phases outlined in the diploma program.

Each booklet contains the same project introduction, and its own booklet introduction.

The project phases are: 1. Collecting a library of relevant themes.

phase 1: the library of knowledge and parameters for design This is the first booklet (in addition to the diploma program), and is the result of the first phase of the diploma semester.

A personal collection This collection of research, knowledge, parameters and solutions is a library of issues and themes that I find relevant and important to the discussions, and furthermore a statement of intentions for the following work this diploma semester.

Therefore I decided to look at the possibility of developing a diagrammatic model that integrated and quantified all aspects of a selfsufficient Norwegian urban structure. To test the usability of the “diagram city” I also decided to test it on a specific and relevant local site.

3. Testing the diagrammatic model on a real world site.

I realize it is most likely impossible to fully incorporate every single one of the parameters in a perfectly balanced harmony. Still, by aspiring to this ambition, I believe that I can put all my knowledge to use. In the end I can look back and feel confident that I at least did not aim to low.

The booklets should be read in this order:

sources

1. The Diploma Program

This would at the same time be an attempt to bridge the scale gap between our successful small-scale efforts and our existing global knowledge.

2. The Library of Knowledge and Parameters for Design

The diagrams shown have been gathered from a wide range of sources. I have tried to reference as many of them as possible, but some of them might lack source specification.

2. Integration of themes in a diagrammatic model for an urban structure.

3. Diagrammatic Model for a Self-sufficient Urban Structure

optimism and controversiality I have been optimistic on behalf of technological development and the societal willingness to adapt. Some might find certain

4. Testing the Diagram Models by Implementation at Taraldrud-Kolbotn

The litterature list at the end of this booklet contains the main publications used as background for writing the self-composed texts.

index landscape, biosphere and ecosystem

transportation and mobility

6 / Site and climate zone specific design

28 / A car free Urban core for the people

7 / Operating within planetary boundaries

29 / Shared hydrogen cars in semi-decentralized parking lots

8 / Self-sufficiency within the biocapacity of the land

30 / Bicycle and pedestrian-based local transportation

10 / Local or regional food security provides resilience

32 / Rail-based regional and long distance transportation

11 / Population and land area as x-factors in sustainability equation

33 / Energy efficient supply chains

12 / Integrated urban water management 13 / Preservation of unique ecosystems and wilderness

architecture, materials and urban form

ENERGY, economy AND politics 36 / Cradle-to-cradle life cycle energy calculation 37 / Intelligent robotics

16 / Stimulate social and economic activity with compact urban core

38 / Stimulation of the local economy reduces excess consumption

17 / Educational, cultural and science institutions integrated in the urban tissue

39 / Transition from a growth to a stable state economy

18 / Ontological design

40 / Efficient use and storage of energy with fusion as balancing power

20 / High density low rise archetypes amongst quality urban spaces

41 / Hydrogen production from excess electricity

21 / High quality dwelling standards with relation to nature

42 / “The zero waste city� through a circular economy

22 / Architecturally integrated energy parameters

43 / Shaping public opinion through creating awareness

23 / Low embodied energy in building materials

44 / Smart city technology and metrics

24 / Architecturally integrated Urban agriculture 25 / Advanced building materials

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library of knowledge and parameters for design

spaceship earth

landscape, biosphere and ecosystem

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kรถppens climate zones

vegetation zones

59oN, 11oE = Dfb Humid with severe winter, no dry season, warm summer.

vegetation zones on the northern hemisphere

Source: Nasjonalatlas for Norge, Vegetasjon. Moen. 1998. Statens Kartverk

Boreonemoral vegetation zone

Source: Tor H. Skaslien - http://met.no/met/met_lex/g_k/klimasoner.png

Source: Nasjonalatlas for Norge, Vegetasjon. Moen. 1998. Statens Kartverk

Site and climate zone specific design Why is it important?

Different climate zones have distinct and significant differences that impact the preconditions and necessary parameters for urban design.

I have chosen to only focus and work with one specific location and climate zone: Oslo-region (59ON, 11OE), located in the Dfb-climate zone (2014) in the Kรถppen climate classification system.

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All following parameters, themes and numbers presented on the remaining pages in this booklet are either globally valid or specific to this climate zone.

Many parameters, themes and numbers will also be relevant to other climate zones, but not necessarily.

The Oslo-climate is furthermore quite common globally, and the extent of other comparable areas and regions is large.

what makes it challenging?

Global and local climate change is altering the conditions all over the planet, and my site location is no exception. Looking at the projected climate for the vision time perspective in question will be important to understand and predict what parameters are important and correct for the design process.

This fact also has implication for the transferability of the design, making it less important and interesting when designing similar project in very different climate zones.

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och

Phosphorus Cycle

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Cycle

Biodiversity Loss

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Change in Global Land Use Fresh Water Use planetary boundary categories

Change in Land Use

Global Fresh Water Use

Phosphorus Cycle

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ry)

Nitrogen Cycle

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Biodiversity Loss

Chapter 2: Developing the picture page 67

cal fl

(not yet quantified)

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

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Safe limits

och

Progress by 2009

Ocean Acidification

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Key

THE PLANETARY BOUNDARIES FRAMEWORK Climate Change Chemical HAS STIMULATED PollutionSCIENTIFIC AND WIDER yet quantified)SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENTS DEBATE,(notADVANCING OF INDIVIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND INFLUENCING BUSINESS AND POLICY AGENDAS Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

( Bi

Figure 38: Planetary boundaries We have already overstepped three of the nine planetary boundaries (Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2009).

remaining resource base compared to consumption

Source: The Baltic University. “Sustainable development / Resources / Limits to Growth - How long will the World’s natural resources last?” www.balticuniv.uu.se/index.php/3b-limits-to-growth

THE PLANETARY BOUNDARIES FRAMEWORK HAS STIMULATED SCIENTIFIC AND WIDER DEBATE, ADVANCING SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENTS operating within OF INDIVIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND INFLUENCING planetary boundaries BUSINESS AND POLICY AGENDAS

Source: Stockholm Resilience Center. 2009. www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-programmes/planetary-boundaries.html

Figure 38: Planetary boundaries We have already overstepped three of the nine planetary boundaries (Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2009).

Key Progress by 2009 Safe limits Why is it important?

The notion of planetary boundaries was first introduced in 2009, when a group of 28 scientists identified and quantified the nine planetary boundaries that humanity must develop within the limits of, to be able to thrive for generations to come. Crossing these boundaries could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes. Respecting the boundaries reduces the risks to human society.

nitrogen cycle

what makes it challenging?

The nine planetary boundaries that have been quantified as of 2015 are: • Climate change • Ocean acidification • Stratospheric ozone depletion • Biogeochemical flows (nitrogen and phosphorous cycles) Chapter 2: Developing • Global fresh water use the picture page 67 • Change in land use (wilderness loss) • Biodiversity loss • Atmospheric aerosol loading • Chemical pollution

The quantification of these parameters globally is an enormous task, and will never be fully updated or precise.

Politicians don’t recognize and discuss these complex themes and their interdependence, when they presumably discuss and care about climate and environmental issues.

Like many other research initiatives concerning environmental issues, it does a good job of explaining and stating that the environment is important, and that things have to change. To a lesser extent do they help the readers and users find out what can and should be done.

Source: Betournay. “Ecosystems and Restoration Ecology” www.betournay.wikispaces.com/Ecosystems+and+Restoration+Ecology

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sweden

ecological footprint of the world sweden

switzerland

The Ecological Footprint

Switzerland

For more than 40 years, humanity’s demand on nature has exceeded what our planet can replenish. Our Ecological Footprint – which measures the area (in hectares) required to supply the ecological goods and services we use – outstrips our biocapacity – the land actually available to provide these goods and services.

Biocapacity acts as an ecological benchmark against which the Ecological Footprint can be compared. Both biocapacity and Ecological Footprint are expressed in a common unit called a global hectare (gha).

Humanity currently needs the regenerative capacity of 1.5 Earths to provide the ecological goods and services we use each year. This “overshoot” is possible because – for now – we can cut trees faster than they mature, harvest more fish than the oceans can replenish, or emit more carbon into the atmosphere than the forests and oceans can absorb. The sum of all human demands no longer fits within what nature can renew. The consequences are diminished resource stocks and waste accumulating faster than it can be absorbed or recycled, such as with the growing carbon concentration in the atmosphere.

Technological innovation, such as increasing efficiency in the use of resources and energy, or improving ecosystem yields, could reduce overshoot – but may also bring trade-offs. For example, enhancing agricultural biocapacity through fertilizers and mechanization has required greater use of fossil fuels, leading to a larger carbon Footprint.

united states of america

world average Figure 21: Global Ecological Footprint by component (1961-2010) Currently, the largest single component of the Ecological Footprint is the carbon component (53 per cent) (Global Footprint Network, 2014).

Ecological Footprint (Number of planet Earths)

2

Key 1

Carbon Fishing grounds

Source: Global Footprint Network. 2014.

Cropland Built-up land Forest products

0 1961

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Grazing products

Year

WWF Living Planet Report 2014 page 32

LPR2014 chapter 1.indd 32

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self-sufficiency within the biocapacity of the land

Why is it important?

The carrying capacity of the land is defined by a specific amount of resources, called the planetary boundaries, and the rate of consumption by the species and populations that live off it. The planetary boundaries are divided into several quantifiable categories, and are given by physical biospheric conditions, and determines the potential consumption.

Technology can expand boundaries, but never break the laws of physics. The impact levels of consumption and emission needs to be equal or lower than the absorbtion or regeneration capability of the biosphere, with the help of available technology.

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what makes it challenging?

Being self-sufficient in the basic commodities such as food, water, energy and electricity provides safety and resilience in a changing physical, political and international climate.

While current cities and settlements are vunerable to power outages due to weather damage to the power grid, food and goods delivery disruptions due to natural disasters or international conflict, a self-sufficient city will be well prepared for such events.

To sustain stable agricultural yields, nitrogen levels in the soil must be maintained - the nitrogen cycle has to be balanced.

Local natural disasters such as floods, pests etc. could have impacts on large proportions of the resource base, making preexisting interregional trading routes, relations and cooperations important.

The self-sufficiency paradox: Even though the US-population has amongst the highest consumption per capita (8,0 gha/person) (gha = global hectare) in the world, their vast land area with viable

biocapacity means they are in less overshoot than the less consuming Swiss (5,0 gha/ person). At the same time, Sweden (6,2 gha/ person) has a higher consumption per capita than Switzerland, but remain well within the biocapacity of the land.

These calculations have been done by measuring our footprint in six categories: Carbon uptake, grazing land, forestry, cropland/agriculture, fishing grounds, and built-up-land.

human development index compared to ecological footprint Source: WWF. 2003.

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agricultural area vs. dietary demands

Source: LA Food Policy Task Force. “Good Food for All Agenda: Creating a New Regional Food System for Los Angeles”. www.goodfoodla.org

carbon footprint of different foods

Source: EnvironmentalWorkingGroup. www.ewg.org

local or regional food security provides resilience Why is it important?

Food security “exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.

When food security is or can be achieved for the population with local or regional production, one creates resilience towards potential disruptions in critical food supply, such as droughts, shipping disruptions, fuel shortages, economic instability and wars.

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Dietary demands have a large impact on the required agricultural production. 60% of all agricultural soil is used to produce meat, while it accounts for only 5% of our protein. But we love meat, and global protein consumption is predicted to double by 2050.

With a resource based perspective, farm animals are very inefficient protein producers.

There are developing technologies that can manufacture meat from plant proteins.

what makes it challenging?

developing better resemblances year by year.

• Food production is area intensive.

• Food production in warmer climates is more efficient (maybe not in life cycle?)

• Other countries might have lower production costs.

On the other hand it will be forced into the average diet due to bare necessity.

This has to be seen in relation to the footprint taxation scheme proposed in the Economy and politics-chapter.

Manufactured meat can seem unappetizing, and so far it sort of it. Getting the meat flavor and appearance right is not too difficult, but the juiciness and chewiness - the texture - is more difficult. But there are new technologies

In addition the current trend is that more and more people are converting to vegetarianism, which is far less area intensive than meat-based diets.

• Average meat diet (190g/day) = 4500m2 • Ideal meat diet (90g/day) = 3000m2 • Vegetarian diet = 2500m2 Some meat in the diet is ideal because large proportions of the agricultural soil isn’t usable for other than animal grazing.

demographical transition self-composed sustainability equation Total resource reproduction

Population

=

Resource consumption

=

per capita

x

Population

Total resource reproduction Resource consumption per capita

Source: Fiona Ellingsen . “Den globale befolkningssituasjonen”. 2015. www.slideshare.net/Frydenlund/den-globale-befolkningssituasjonen

population and land area as x-factors in sustainability equation Why is it important?

A minimum of 10-25000 inhabitants is the necessary population to ensure an active, socially interacting, healthy, economically viable and attractive urban core with desired commerce and services.

• Isolated city with administrative center: 10000 people • Sattelite city/settlement in relation to larger central city: 20-25000 people Compared to Norwegian urban settlements (2013): • Oslo: 925 228 • Drammen / Fredrikstad+Sarpsborg: 110000

what makes it challenging?

• • • • • • •

Tønsberg / Ålesund / Moss: 50000 Bodø / Tromsø: 35000 Hamar / Halden / Larvik: 25000 Harstad / Molde / Lillehammer: 20000 Jessheim / Hønefoss / Alta / Ski: 15000 Bryne / Førde / Brumunddal: 10000 Raufoss / Volda / Kragerø: 6000

In the diagram phase the size of the land area (total resource reproduction) will be the unknown factor of my sustainability equation, while in the implementation phase the population will be the unknown

Many factors compose the total consumption per capita. The four main components are transportation, food production, buildings and infrastructure, and consumables. They all require energy and materials, and there is great potential for making the use and consumption of them far more efficient.

As an example there is a difference in the footprint of vegetarian and carnivorous diets, that impact the area needed per capita.

The per capita resource allowance, when living on a finite piece of land, is directly dependant on the population levels. Population

management and control is a controvertial subject, and most all methods are contradictory to our modern ethics (abstinence, abortion, sterilization, family planning legislation, opinion altering PR). Our current economic system is not designed to function with declining or stable populations, even though quality of life actually can increase while the economy recedes.

But for the sake of theoretical experimentation, I nevertheless intend to have a stringent relationship to my sustainability equation, first and foremost to stimulate a debate that has been neglected in the “eco/climate/ sustainability”-debates of my lifetime. library of knowledge and parameters for design

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Source: “Stormwater Management and Green Infrastructure” Cornell University

urban water landscape solutions greywater treatment system

Source: Alex Ulam. “STEMMING THE TIDE Streetscapes and plazas are being transformed into high performance sites for stormwater management.” 2014. The Architects Newspaper

Source: James Gien Varney-Wong. “Ecological Sewage Treatment” www.ingienous.com

integrated urban water management Why is it important?

Water management where the city retains water, boosts its utilization, uses the soil as a water filter and favors evapotranspiration in order to preserve the natural local water balance between the earth and the atmosphere.

Sufficient stormwater retention in surface, subsurface, bioswales and urban wetland storage/ delaying, and through permeable landscape surfaces is vital to ensure resiliency towards climate change.

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what makes it challenging?

This can be achieved by creating water management systems that harvest, store, treat and cleanse locally and naturally, by collecting and separating rainwater, freshwater, greywater and blackwater in different loops, treatment solutions and water feedback loops.

Different stages of the water feedback loop contains water with variable quality and usability. Some water types might be harmful.

Some guidelines: • Don’t store greywater more than 24 hours.

• Minimize contact surfaces with greywater by letting it soak into the ground and not cumulating in pools.

• Keep the system simple, avoiding pumps and filters that require maintenance, making the system last longer, require less maintenance, energy and money.

• Make sure surplus greywater is rerouted into traditional sewer, not exceding the capacity of the system and irrigation needs of the plants,

effects of a rapidly warming climate have been suggested as likely causes of decline in body condition and numbers in many polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations (Stirling et al., 1999; Vors and Boyce, 2009).

primary causes of declining species populations

5.1%

4%

2%

Figure 11: Primary threats to LPI populations Information on threats has been identified for 3,430 populations in the LPI assigned to seven categories. Other populations are either not threatened or lack threat information (WWF, ZSL, 2014).

7.1%

37%

13.4%

wilderness characterized nature in norway

Key Exploitation Habitat degradation/ change Habitat loss Climate change Invasive species/ genes

31.4%

Pollution Disease

Source: WWF, ZSL. 2014.

WWF Living Planet Report 2014 page 20

LPR2014 chapter 1.indd 20

Why is it important?

Wilderness preservation and integration allows and ensures the continued or increased prosperity of the non-human lifeforms, acknowledging the fragile balance of the ecosystem, food chains and species interdependence.

We do not know the full extent of the long term effects of the ongoing loss of species. Wildlife may have unknown impacts on vegetation, waterways and indirectly on local climate.

Source: Direktoratet for naturforvaltning. 2009. www.miljostatus.no

preservation of unique ecosystems, wilderness and natural landscapes Precautionary principles should be applied to avoid potentially catastrophic impacts on lifesupporting systems.

Wildlife corridors and protection of unique elements or biotopes in the ecosystem are important to sustain a healthy species population. The corridors are especially important to ensure inputs of new genetic material to a population, providing a good genetic diversity.

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what makes it challenging?

Requires extensive mapping and knowledge about the species on the site.

Conflicts with other land uses, that might seem more important to a vast majority of humans.

Diffuse economic effect of long term biotope and species collapse/degradation makes it difficult to measure and calculate importance for human societies.

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THE built environment

architecture, materials and urban form

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Source: Maxwan. “Transformation of Leiden Central Station Master Plan”. 2011. ArchDaily

Source: The Urban Task Force, Richard Rogers. “Toward an Urban Renaissance”. 2003

Source: Sasaki Associates. “TechTown District Plan”. 2013. ArchDaily

stimulate social and economic activity with compact urban core Why is it important?

In a car free urban environment the human scale becomes the most important. What radically distinguishes urbanity from suburbanity and rurality are the multitude of interactions that take place in the urban tissue on streets, in shops, cafés and restaurants, and in parks and plazas.

It is the people, the inhabitants, that sustain this activity. Having enough people that live, work and play in the city is vital for its health. People

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what makes it challenging? need to have a desire to go to the city core, and be able to get there as well.

A compact urban core designed with the human scale in mind, prioritizing pedestrians and bicyclists, is walkable, attractive and safe.

Since consumption of typical consumer goods isn’t great for the footprint, it is important to shift substantial parts of the economy from being shopping-oriented to service and necessity-oriented.

Providing transportation to, from and through the urban core without having an impact on the human scale design can be challenging.

It is important to have a sufficiently large population to sustain a socially and economically thriving urban core. The following minimum population are needed to sustain desired services and commerce: • Isolated city with adm. center: 10000 people • Sattelite city/settlement in relation to larger central city: 25000 people

educational, cultural and science institutions integrated in the urban tissue Why is it important?

Integrating educational institutions -- all the way from elementary schools to universities -- in the urban tissue in mixed use blocks along with dwellings, commerce and workplaces, stimulates urban life, activity and interactions throughout the hours of the day.

Also Integrating science centers in the urban tissue stimulates relations and cooperation between the people, educational institutions with primarily young people, and researchers.

what makes it challenging?

Furthermore integrating cultural institutions in the urban tissue allows all three categories mentioned and the people using the urban spaces to interact and create awareness amongst eachother.

Land prices are of course higher in urban centers, and since these institutions ofter require substantial building masses and footprints, they are often pushed out of the urban core.

The activity fueled by these institutions helps sustain vitality and social resilience in the urban core.

Since they are often highly space consuming, other functions that also benefit from being located in the urban core, might get pushed further out on behalf of these institutions. It is therefore important to integrate and colocate them with other functions in mixed use typologies to ensure maximum effect. library of knowledge and parameters for design

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ontological design Why is it important?

Ontological design is the notion that our environment moulds and shapes us -- that the buildings and urban spaces we design, act back on us and design us. Knowing this makes the design of our urban spaces important if we wish to achieve the necessary change in values and preferences in the population.

Getting the population and public opinion on board with the immense societal changes we need to undergo to get to where we need to be is vital to success. Decision makers are elected, and the politicians will follow the public

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what makes it challenging? opinion to ensure they are re-elected.

Therefore the most powerful tool to achieve societal changes is not through politics, but through the shaping of the public opinion.

The dirty way to do this is with public relations, also called propaganda. The beautiful way to do it is by show and teach the people how their lives are connected to their built and unbuilt environement by designing cities, spaces, building and relationships to the landscape that design their minds and their opinions.

The processes of ontological design are by its nature slowly manifesting changes. The feedback loops between our designs -- be it our language, our techology or our built environments -- and who we are and who we become, can take a generation.

Designing for a change that manifests itself 2-3-4-50 years later, requires dedication, coherence, stability and unity. Several levels of authority and a broad range of initiatives will have to work towards a shared goal to achieve the desired outcome.

“Our thoughts shape our spaces - we design our world. But those spaces return the favor.

We mirror the environment that we create.

This lays a great responsibility in our hands when we design and build the cities of the future. How do we make better systems, better feedback loops, to upgrade how we function in the world -- to an extent where we understand the city as an organism. This allows us to raise the stage on which we unfold. That is why ontological designing is an important idea�.

Source: Jason Silva. 2014. Youtube. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHCo9U4jxzE

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Source: Tredje natur. “City in Nature�. 2012. www.tredjenatur.dk/portfolio/city-in-nature

High density low rise archetypes amongst quality urban spaces Why is it important?

Today we are building either very sparse or very dense, not so much in between. High density and efficient utilization of the land area allows more area in the city to be used as social interaction spaces, landscape elements og urban agriculture. But if the density is too high, the quality of these spaces, elements and functions are degraded - sometimes even making them useless or counterproductive compared to their intended function.

By selecting and using specific architectural structures and typologies with high (actually

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what makes it challenging? medium) density and low rise (with some, but few, exceptions), one can achieve the desired urban qualities, and house the desired population. If this is done in a holistic and concious way, emphasizing equal importance on the architecture, and the urban tissue and spaces it relates to and interacts with, great places and cities can be created.

Achieving a connected network of attractive urban spaces and corridors, with both hard (stone) and soft (green) surfaces, is important and desireable.

Land prices, especially in urban areas, and developer’s expectation of profit often puts pressure on local decision makers to allow more density and less quality. This is often done at the expense of quality (daylight, materials etc.) of urban spaces, both private and public.

Site ownership structures are complex and fragmented, slowing down or even preventing transformation processes, and making holistic coherance challenging.

Source: Tredje natur. “City in Nature�. 2012. www.tredjenatur.dk/portfolio/city-in-nature

High quality dwelling standards with relation to nature Why is it important?

what makes it challenging?

High quality architecture, that pleases the eye and needs of its users, is more likely to exceed its predefined life cycle. Extending the operational life of a building is a great way of improving the per capita resource efficiency.

Awareness of the difference between big and great - between good enough and surplus/ luxurious.

Simple living, but with sufficient qualities and standards to ensure satisfaction, reduces the desire and need for building, owning and travelling to a second home outside the city. This satisfaction warrants, especially for Norwegians, a close connection and relation between the dwelling and nature.

One might think that high quality architecture is more expensive than the standardized options. This might be true in some cases, and high quality materials with extended durability and better estetics are often more costly.

Less obviously, the most important investment to make and commit to when seeking genuine

improvement in architectural quality, in both buildings, urban spaces and landscapes, is in the design process.

Today the design process of the built environment is inefficient, wasting talents, ideas and human resources on endless parallell processes such as the architectural competitions. Streamlining and linearizing the design process, to a certain extent, will reallocate immense amounts of creative time capacity for improving the per project quality.

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efficient building envelopes

integrated energy solutions climatic site analysis

used air is led back to the heat exchange system (in winter) and directly out (in summer) via a vacuum air chamber in the roof

N fresh air from the heat exchange system is led below the floor in a pressurized air chamber

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r, nd ate er w r grou er e e ov umm tak g und ding, in s in air elin e buil ol air v a tr to th es co in vid pro

ventilation principles - Daylight exploited consciously.

- Vertical slats along the facade act as sun shading, and prevents unwanted heating.

- The ventilation system uses natural air movement principles for efficient mechanical ventilation.

- Heat recovery of exhaust air.

- Pressurized ventilation systems with large cross-sections and low air speeds, lower the energy consumption of fans.

- Thermal mass in the interior utilized for temperature equalization.

W

E

S

technical room - recycling of heat - hot water transformed into hot air

N

technical wall

N

f m roo sedu

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10 22

30

sol

ra in re wa t te nt er ion po nd

roof rainwater retention pond

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50

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60

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70

80

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S Low runoff to the city's storm water management

Source: i.House Architecture and Construction. “B House”. 2014. ArchDaily.

3

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Source: AHO. “BMW Zero-Energy Dealership Concept”. 2013.

june 21st

solar irradiation average temperature:

7,4

o

c

horizontal: o

15 inclination:

1640 hours of sun / year

optimal inclination:

september 21st

966 kwh / m2 / year 1078 kwh / m2 / year 1148 kwh / m2 / year

december 21st sunrise sunset pv-panels

Source: AHO. “BMW Zero-Energy Dealership Concept”. 2013.

Architecturally integrated energy solutions Why is it important?

Lower energy consumption in the city reduces the necessary capacity of the electricity grid, further reducing energy consumption and providing resilience during grid disruptions og damages.

Energy harvesting is fairly space intensive, and all available and suitable surfaces should be utilized to achieve self-sufficiency.

Uniting architecturally and urban integration of the following parameters allows for more flexibility and resilience.

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what makes it challenging?

• Work with natural ventilation principles and reduce the need for artificial ventilation.

• Compact building volumes have lower energy consumption.

• Building integrated harvesting of solar energy for both electricity and heating.

• Directionally specific facade shading.

• High daylight utilization.

• Utilize or create wind conditions with potential for energy harvesting.

• Use of geothermal wells to both harvest and store hot/cold water.

• Heat balancing through waterbodies.

Developing new technology is costly, and leading the pinnacle of development will therefore also be costly. At the same time many of the advantageous solutions could actually reduce costs in both the short and long term, by using low tech solutions and working with the laws of physics instead of against them.

Reconnecting with ancient knowledge might be unintuitive, but in many aspects that is the smartest path to investigate.

Using heated or cooled bodies of water for storing energy might not be the most effective, but when applied in an local and urban scale it can reduce the need for energy inputs drastically.

We can’t transform or rebuild all our buildings from the current high emission/consumptionstandard to a low emission/consumptionstandard, the energy investment will bypass the benefits of the efficiency improvements.

embodied energy calculation in materials embodied material energy kwh / life cycle Technical equipment 403 200 kWh 3%

Solar thermal-panels 261 352 kWh 2%

Solar PV-panels w/Inverters 5 250 000 kWh 36 %

Furniture 396 000 kWh 3%

Lighting fixtures and bulbs 90 000 kWh 1% Soil displacement 67 200 kWh 0%

life cycle calculations

Sand & gravel 677 740 kWh 5% Recirculated rubber 2 742 kWh 0%

AHO+BILIA / BMW Zero-Energy Dealership Concept in Norway scenario 1 / Life cycle calculations Energy consumption in operation phase

energy accounting

life cycle calculation

energy consumption TEK15 stipulated Room heating

8,8

8 kWh/m2/year

Air heating

13,4

10 kWh/m2/year

Water heating

15,8

5 kWh/m2/year

Fans and pumps

16,7

5 kWh/m2/year

Lighting

44,9

12 kWh/m2/year

Total energy consumption/year

50 kWh/m2/year 2 855 m2 142 750 kWh/year

first generation pv-production Average solar radiation on PV-panel angle(s)

Technical equipment

13,9

5 kWh/m2/year

PV-panel efficiency rating

Room and ventilation cooling

11,5

5 kWh/m2/year

Electricity production/m2

total energy consumption regulation / TEK15

125 125

PV-panel area

50 kWh/m2/year 125 kWh/m2/year

energy accounts

Total energy consumption/m2 Total heated area of building

Electricity production

848 kWh/m2/year 18 % 152,6 kWh/m2 2 100 m2 320 544 kWh/year 112 kWh/m2/year

the life cycle calculations are based on the following energy measures and future assumptions

second generation pv-production

30 years until invest

PV-panel efficiency rating

36 %

U-value outer walls

0,11 W/m2K

Electricity production/m2

305,3 kWh/m2

U-value roof

0,08 W/m2K

PV-panel area

2 100 m2

U-value ground floor

0,08 W/m2K

Electricity production

U-value doors and windows

0,05 W/m2K

Thermal Solar Panels for heating

364 m2

Average price of electricity in life span of first generation PVpanels

1,1 NOK/kWh

Average price of electricity in life span of second generation PV-panels

1,6 NOK/kWh

Income from selling electricity to the grid in life span of second generation PV-panels

225 kWh/m2/year

energy balance

1 NOK/kWh

PV-panel price / year 0 PV-investment cost / year 0 PV-panel price / year 30

ZEB / The Research Centre on Zero Emission Buildings EPD-Norge.no / Environmental Product Declarations

PV-investment cost / year 30 Savings from reduced amount of electricity bought

ICE / Inventory of Carbon & Energy, University of Bath

Savings from reduced amount of electricity bought

Powerhouse projects / Skanska, Entra, Snøhetta, Zero, ZEB & Hydro

Income from electricity sold to the grid

Sintef Byggforsk & KanEnergi for Enova

338 066 kWh/year 118 kWh/m2/year

the projected production is dependent on the following pv-investment

sources

EU JVC PVGIS / EU Joint Research Centre, Photovoltaic Geographical Information System

641 088 kWh/year

Economic result of pv-investment over life span

2 750 NOK/m2

Yearly energy balance

60 years

Total energy balance

20 283 960 kWh/60 years

embodied material energy Larvikite Granite CLT / Cross Laminated Timber Softwood Oak wood Steel Mineral wool EPS / Expanded Polystyrene Rockwool 3-layered glass 1-layer glass Aerogel Recirculated rubber Sand & gravel Soil displacement Lighting fixtures and bulbs Furniture Technical equipment Solar thermal-panels Solar PV-panels w/Inverters

1-layer glass 265 658 kWh 2%

338 066 kWh/year

Life span of building

m2

m3

kg/m3

117

2 515

116

2 691

50

15 608

1,0

312 156

60 years

1 961

650

kgCO2-e/ton

122

155 507

3,4

4 333 810

60 years

50

kgCO2-e

14 713

kWh/kg kWh/iteration

1,0

294 255

46

550

68

1 720

1,20

30 360

30 years

224

700

87

13 642

1,80

282 240

30 years

1,85

7 850

2 830

41 099

11

159 748

60 years

1 048

28

850

24 942

4,6

134 982

60 years

974

35

2 430

82 839

22

749 980

60 years

32

800

43 622

4,7

256 282

60 years

16

2 579

950

39 470

6

249 286

30 years

1 073

9

2 579

950

21 031

6

132 829

30 years

131

10

20

3 200

620

15

2 908

30 years

481

1 630 5

0,3 2 350 2 100

235

19,0

2 742

60 years

16 944

0,20

677 740

60 years

4

13 440

0,02

67 200

60 years

48

21 600

100

45 000

30 years

per/item:

60

10 800

1 100

198 000

30 years

per/item:

500

24 000

4 200

201 600

30 years

1 442 1 600

items:

450

per/item:

items:

180

items:

48

364

kgCO2-e/m2:

45

16 380

359

130 676

30 years

2 100

kgCO2-e/m2:

235

493 500

1 250

2 625 000

30 years

294 255 312 156 4 333 810 60 720 564 480 159 748 134 982 749 980 256 282 498 572 265 658 2 908 2 742 677 740 67 200 90 000 396 000 403 200 261 352 5 250 000

Rockwool 256 282 kWh 2%

total embodied emissions & energy

2 100 000 NOK

1 052 tons co2-e 368 kg co2-e/m2

Granite 312 156 kWh 2%

EPS / Expanded Polystyrene 749 980 kWh 5%

* kgCO2-e/item & kWh/item * kgCO2-e/item & kWh/item * kgCO2-e/item & kWh/item * kgCO2-e/m2 & kWh/m2 * kgCO2-e/m2 & kWh/m2

5 775 000 NOK 1 000 NOK/m2

Larvikite 294 255 kWh 2%

3-layered glass 498 572 kWh 3%

lifetime f kWh/life cycle

60 years

1 704 895

Aerogel 2 908 kWh 0%

14 781 784 kwh 86 KWh/m2/year

Mineral wool 134 982 kWh 1%

Steel 159 748 kWh 1%

157 025 NOK/year 0-30 228 400 NOK/year 30+ 498 338 NOK/year 30+

18 637 890 NOK/60 years

life cycle result

5 502 176 kWh/60 years

Source: AHO. “BMW Zero-Energy Dealership Concept”. 2013.

Oak wood 564 480 kWh 4%

Softwood 60 720 kWh 0%

CLT / Cross Laminated Timber 4 333 810 kWh 29 %

Source: AHO. “BMW Zero-Energy Dealership Concept”. 2013.

low embodied energy in building materials Why is it important?

Building materials, used for buildings, landscape and urban design, infrastructures and other built environments, represent a significant proportion of the life cycle energy and emission footprint of a project, especially now that we are drastically lowering the energy consumption in the operational phase.

Wood is the only building material that actually reduces CO2-emission with increased use, when integrated with carefully managed and sustainable forestry practices. Wood has a great potential as building material, both structurally and estetically.

what makes it challenging?

Advantages of wood: • Substantial potential for local production.

• Plyable, strong and flexible, gives varied applications and spans.

• The raw material is a renewable resource, as long as the forestry management is sustainable.

• Stabilizes relative humidity.

• Highly recyclable and reuseable.

• Binds and stores CO2.

• Cost and time efficient building process.

Limiting the use of certain well established materials such as the energy and carbon intensive concrete, metals, plastics and chemicals will require a restructuring amongst the producers of these materials. Locally quarried natural stone is a good replacement for concrete, but should be limited to avoid unacceptable landscape impacts.

Finding high quality materials from a local or regional producer might also mean abandoning certain techniques or technological

possibilities, resulting in a possible shift towards standardization and simplicity.

Disadvantages of wood: • If not integrated/utilized correctly, the lifespan is relatively short.

• The use of chemicals to improve durability is common.

• Prone to decay if detailing or workmanship is poor.

• Flammability requires fire protection.

• Relatively frequent maintenance intervals.

(Can be avoided through material sorting and better architectural detailing)

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architecturally integrated urban agriculture

agriculture-human relationship

how aquaponics work

Source: The Vertical Farm Blog. 2010. www.verticalfarmblog.blogspot.no

Source: LeafyGills. www.leafygills.com/guide-to-aquaponics/what-is-aquaponics/ Source: www.refarmthecity.org

architecturally integrated Urban agriculture Why is it important?

We are facing a complex set of food challenges: • Feeding 9 billion people by 2050.

• Overexploiting agricultural practices are causing soil erosion, soil nitrogen depletion, deforestration, phosphorous contamination and appalling animal welfare.

• Long distance transportation of globalized food production is a massive energy consumer.

• Monoculture crops are susceptible to pests and diseases, and contribute to loss of biodiversity.

• Increased use of pesticides and other chemicals give negative health effects.

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By increasing local agriculture, integrated in the urban tissue and architecture, by utilizing technologies such as aquaponics, permaculture and aeroponics on rooftops/terraces/ greenhouses, one can remediate all of these challenges: • Increasing agricultural productive area means we can feed more people.

• It reduces pressure on existing land by allowing lower yield in balance with the regeneration of the soil and animal welfare.

• Less transportation.

• Diversity in crops provides resilience towards pests, and has less impact on biodiversity.

• Less need for pesticides and chemicals makes food safer and healthier.

what makes it challenging?

Heavyweight international corporations are making a lot of money on the current globalized system, including: • Chemical, fertilizer and seed manufacturers.

• Packaging companies.

• Fossil fuel companies.

The increasing population levels are putting massive strain on current agricultural systems, necessitating unsustainable levels of production. Of the 7+ billion humans in the world, nearly 1 billion go to bed hungry. As the population increases up towards 9 billion before 2050, we will need to revolutionize how we produce food.

At the same time architecturally integrated agriculture in an urban setting is more expensive than field based agriculture. In a small scale it could be a positive contributor to the social life in the city, but larger scaled production might be better off outside of the most dense urban core.

Meanwhile one of the benefits of substantial production in the city, is decreased need for claiming wilderness and transforming it into food production land.

Source: “Huge 3D Printer Can Print an Entire Two-Story House in Under a Day” 2014. www.inhabitat.com/large-3d-printer-can-print-an-entire-two-story-house-in-under-a-day/

Source: 3DK. “3D Printing: Destiny Game Pendant”. 2014. Youtube. www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-ugFSaOFsY

Source: 3DK. “3D Printing: Destiny Game Pendant”. 2014. Youtube. www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-ugFSaOFsY

Advanced building materials Why is it important?

Material technologies are developing rapidly, advancing in both composition and manufacturing methods. Some of the most promising technologies that are already developing can have a profound impact on how we build our cities in the future.

• CO2-absorbing building materials transform the city from a CO2-polluter to a CO2-absorber.

what makes it challenging?

• Nanotechnology will bring advances to a range of materials, including solar panels with greater efficiency, water- and bacteria repellent materials, more efficient displays, and healthcare materials.

• 3D-printing of not only plastics, but wood, metals, stone and composites will revolutionize the building process, making it less energy demanding, faster, more advanced and local. Prefabrication can be done on-site.

Predicting the future is never accurate, and even though a technology is promising today is no guarantee that it will be viable and successful tomorrow. Yet, historically the most difficult prediction to make is about the technologies that we haven’t even thought of today, but end up having a profound impact on the future possibilities and our future lives.

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getting around

transportation and mobility

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mobility efficiency per mode of transport

Source: Ruter. “K2012. www.ruter.no/globalassets/dokumenter/ruterrapporter/2011/10-2011_k2012.pdf Source: Copenhaganize. www.copenhagenize.com/

a car free Urban core for the people Why is it important?

The urban core is the heart, identity, engine and stronghold of the city. The city dwellers, united, compose the activity, soul, conciousness and life force of the city. Only when and if these two forces are united and acting in symbiosis are they happy and prosperous. Achieving this is only possible if the design of the urban core is attractive and accessible for the people. Removal of the car from the urban space is proven to stimulate increased human interaction, especially for children whose radius of action is also increased.

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what makes it challenging?

Removing the car from the urban equation is first and foremost a symbolical strategy, providing a notable and potentially momentus catch phrase, but also clears the slate and decomposes the preconditioned notions of a city, allowing and providing a fresh perspective when designing the future city.

Other important parameters for prosperous urban cores: • Combining residential, retail and work programs in mixed-use buildings and blocks.

• Combining programs that stimulate activity throughout the day.

People love their cars and the subjective “freedom” it provides.

• Yes, it is a time effective mean of transportation for a small number of people from A to B. • Yes, it is comfortable and private.

But it is also: • Grossly spacially inefficient, requiring enormous amounts of infrastructure/ passenger km and vast areas for parking.

• Highly energy and material inefficient.

• Highly noise and aerosol polluting.

• Hazardous for soft mobility such as pedestrians and bicyclist, creating segregation between neighborhoods, blocks and even opposing sides of a street.

• Cost inefficient in urban areas.

Removing the car for mobility in the urban core sets requirements for viable and sufficiently functioning alternatives. Public transportation or other mobility solutions need to operate and be available 24 hours, reducing their efficiency and potentially producing some unnecessary disturbance during the night.

Source: Audi Urban Future Initiative. www.audi-urban-future-initiative.com

shared hydrogen cars in semi-decentralized parking lots Why is it important?

what makes it challenging?

The public transportation solutions can’t run all night, and the regional trains can’t go everywhere.

when not going to another urban core. These are accessed from transportation hubs on the perimeter of each urban neighborhood.

Having a backup solution when the shared mobility solutions can take you from place A to your desired place B, is important to ensure freedom of mobility.

Also, allowing a low amount of cars into the street grid in the neighborhoods is vital to some functions such as emergency vehicles, goods deliveries, and when moving or picking someone up.

Shared coop self driving hydrogen electric cars are used when travelling radially out of the city,

Allowing the car partially into the city can be dangerous, as the risk of them taking over or being to influencial on the urban scene is present.

It will be important to ensure that the public transportation solutions are more efficient and attractive for the vast majority of people moving around the city. They must be the superior solutions.

One measure that can ensure this happens is the total void of parking possibilities on the neighborhood street grids except on the semidecentralized parking lot on the neighborhood perimeter.

Also, trading car ownership to car usership might be a substantial change in perception for some people.

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urban networks and agricultural integration mobility prioritization future today

Source: Jörg Schröder. “Agropolis - dal cucchiaio alla città”. 2011. www.ecowebtown.eu/n_2/it/schroeder_it.html

bicycle and pedestrian-based local transportation Why is it important?

Bicycle and pedestrian based mobility in city core and radially in city scale. Important to ensure safe traffic environment for all soft mobility, both as transportation and leisure.

Stimulates urban life and interaction, both when travelling along or across urban spaces, and between dwellings, offices and shops.

Cargo and utility bicycles can handle most of the personal goods transportation.

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what makes it challenging?

The potential health benefits of getting a large proportion of the population to work out more regularly are substantial. It it projected that 76% of Norwegian men will be overweight in 2030, along with the enormous health care costs that implies. Radically altering the main mode of local transportation from a car based one to a bicycle based one can dampen and perhaps remediate this trend.

Bicyclists come in all shapes, sizes and types, all with different needs and mobility patterns. It is important, and difficult, to design for all these different bicyclist types.

Electric powered bicycles make medium distances more viable, but the increased speed gives potentially harmful situations. Enhanced intersection and corridor design is needed.

Maximum 5-800m to public transportation point

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average co2-emissions/ passenger km

external societal costs comparison

hyperloop technology

Grønnstruktur Automatbane

Jernbane Ny jernbane Buss

Bu

ss

Metro

Ga avs ngtan d

Byutvikling Ny miljøby Source: Ruter. “K2012. www.ruter.no/globalassets/dokumenter/ruterrapporter/2011/10-2011_k2012.pdf Source: Elon Musk. “Hyperloop”. 2014.

Eidsvoll

Rail-based regional and long distance transportation Hønefoss

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what makes it challenging?

• New infrastructures for HSR should be suitable for Hyperloop development.

• Metro and local trains within region.

• Light rail on dedicated paths in urban scale.

• Hydrogen electric buses in city where no need for light rail capacity.

Jessheim

• Expensive infrastructure.

• Vunerable to natural disasters.

• HSR can’t compete with air travel over distances greater than approx. 800km.

Årnes Ask miljøby

Nittedal miljøby

Ny Gjøvikbane Ringeriksbane

Rail based transportation has exceptional capacity compared to area used for infrastructure, especially when considering infrastructure width along transportation corridors.

Grorud

Grønnstruktur Automatbane

Why is it important?

Spacially and energy efficient transportation is vital to ensure a well functioning regional and interregional relationship, sharing resources, workforces, technology, innovations and leisure travelling. I propose the following distribution of transporation mediums for different travelling distances: • High speed rail for long distance interregional.

• Emerging technologies such as the Hyperloop will make long distance faster and more efficient.

OSL Gardermoen

Lillestrøm

Oslo S

Bu

library of knowledge and parameters for design Drammen

Ga avs ngtan d

Nesodden miljøby

Gjersrud/Stensrud miljøby

Flateby

Ytre Enebakk

Røyken miljøby Måna miljøby

Bjørkelangen

ss

Sandvika

Asker

Sørumsand miljøby

Ski

more efficient cargo distribution

Source: Cadena de Suministro. “Future Supply Chain 2016� 2010. www.cadenadesuministro.es/noticias/logistica/future-supply-chain-2016/

energy efficient supply chains Why is it important?

what makes it challenging?

Small self-driving - autonomous - trucks or drones make deliveries in the urban center, directly from rail based cargo terminals on the city perimeter. Logitics programs calculate the most efficient routes through the city.

Cargo terminals take up large areas, especially when transferring goods from rail to wheels.

The amount of long distance freight will be reduced with the proposed footprint taxation system, but what remains should mainly be done by rail on selected rail lines for goods, where they have sufficient capacity between passenger.trains.

It will present challenges for people or businesses moving large items or large quantities of items. To cope with this, the cargo terminals need to have a public access area where a highly automated system of deliveries from the terminal to a location in the city can be done with the same small autonomous trucks or drones as other deliveries.

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societal systems

ENERGY, economy AND politics

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life cycle stages of a building

life cycle stages of a building life span estimated to

product stage

60 years

1 2

construction n flexibility adds a basis for different uses

operational stage

raw material supply transport to factory manufacturing transport to building site building construction use maintenance

various owners

repair

all in

one building

end of life

3

extended life span possible benefit but not expected

Source: AHO. “BMW Zero-Energy Dealership Concept�. 2013.

replacement refurbishment de-construction / demolition transport

4

waste processing disposal / recycling

cradle-to-cradle life cycle energy calculation Why is it important?

Large hidden embodied energy and pollution costs remain unaccounted for in the current economic paradigm.

The operational phase of a product, a transportation vehicle, a building or a city only represents a shrinking portion of the total energy consumption. In order to calculate the entire footprint one must take into account

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what makes it challenging? all of the different stages in the life cycle. If the life span - expected durability - can be prolonged for energy intensive components, the total footprint per year will decrease.

Normally one expects a 60 year life span for most buildings. The life span can be expected to be extended if the architecture is of especially high quality.

Difficult to accurately calculate all the stages.

The energy consumption is only a part of the picture, neglecting emissions and usage of harmful chemicals/substances.

Getting the media and decision makers to acknowledge that the operational consumption is only a fragment of the total picture is difficult, but important.

jobs robots might do in the future

intelligent robotics Why is it important?

Robotics technology is developing rapidly, and it is only a matter of time before robots are able to compete with humans for a significant proportion of our jobs.

In many cases this can be highly beneficial.

Robots can work longer, lift heavier and more precise than humans, leaving time and opportunity for people to focus more on social, community, creative and happiness intensive work.

what makes it challenging?

It will also remediate many of the negative effects of the population decline (already evident in Japan), and self-realization trends making many of todays low-status jobs unwanted and underrecruited.

Predicting how this will affect the economy and exactly what jobs that will be taken over is difficult.

It will also be important to limit this revolutionary change to a beneficial extent, and not allowing it to take over the jobs we actually want to do and need to do for society to continue functioning.

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INTRODUCTION

Sustainable development has figured prominently on the international agenda for more than a quarter of a century. People talk earnestly of the environmental, social and economic dimension of development. Yet we continue to build up the economic component, at considerable cost to the environmental one. We risk undermining social and economic gains by failing to appreciate our fundamental dependency ecological systems. Social and domainonhierarchy economic sustainability are only possible with a healthy planet.

local food economy circle

ECOLOGICAL DOMAIN SOCIAL DOMAIN ECONOMIC DOMAIN

Ecosystems sustain societies that create economies. It does not wor any other way round. But although human beings are a product of the natural world, we have become the dominant force that shapes Source: Storm Lake Iowa. “Carbon in the Atmosphere”. www.stormlake.org/index.aspx?NID=518 ecological and biophysical systems. In doing so, we are not only threatening our health, prosperity and well-being, but our very future. This tenth edition of the Living Planet Report® reveals the effects of the pressures we are placing on the planet. It explores the implications for society. And it underlines the importance of the choices we make and the steps we take to ensure this living planet what makes it challenging? can continue to sustain us all, now and for generations to come.

stimulation of the local economy reduces excess consumption

Why is it important?

People want and have a deeply rooted need to consume, not only food and energy to survive, but a range of material goods. Yet, the efficiency of this consumer culture can be improved.

Footprint taxation The lifecycle energy consumption, emissions, carbon and raw material footprint in an item can be calculated and taxed. This integrates the real total costs of an item or service into the price paid by the consumer, rebalancing the

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subsidized impacts of globalization in favor of locally and regionally produced goods. Putting a price on resources will drive efficiency and minimize waste.

Achieving a more local economy will improve the balance between manufacturing amounts and the actual demands and needs of the consumers, reducing overproduction.

• Reduced long-term growth (also positive) Chapter 1 presents three established indicators of the state of the • Loss of international and intercontinental interaction. planet and our impact upon it: the Living Planet Index® (LPI), the • Increased risk of international conflict.

Ecological Footprint and the water footprint.

The LPI, which measures trends in thousands of vertebrate species populations, shows a decline of 52 per cent between 1970 and 2010 (Figure 2). In other words, vertebrate species populations across the globe are, on average, about half the size they were 40 years ago This is a much bigger decrease than has been reported previously, as a result of the weighted adjustments made to the methodology,

CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRO

WATER

FOOD

INCOME EDUCATION

HEALTH GENDER EQUALITY

JOBS

E TI ON

C H E M IC A

L

U POLL

IO N

EA N

EPL

OSP H E R IC LOAD AEROSOL IN G

OC

VE

ED

V DE DS C I U S TA INABLE ECONOM

ACID I

PM

USI

ENERGY

ENT

VOICE

ELO

INCL

OZON

AN

ATM

RESILIENCE

SOCIAL EQUITY

In Bhutan they have abandoned GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as development measuring index in favor of GNH (Gross National Happiness).

GEN AND NITRO RUS CYCLES PHO PHOS

THE SAF

UST SPACE FOR J D N HU E A SOCIAL FOUNDATION

Gross national happiness in Bhutan

NITY MA

BIODIVERSITY LO SS

FRES HW ATE R

N M E N TA L C E I L I N G

FICAT

NGE A H C SE

E US

LAN DU

and participation.

The doughnut illuminates the need for a new economic model that is both sustainable and inclusive – one which does not breach global planetary boundaries and which at the same time raises its citizens above a social floor.

This requires bold and transformational change in the purpose and nature of the world’s economy. Rather than pursuing economic growth without regard for its quality or distribution, the Oxfam Doughnut shows how humanity needs an economy that redistributes oxfam power, wealth the and resources to thedoughnut poorest and focuses growth where it is most needed.

TI O

N

They evaluate initiatives by measuring expected improvements or negative impact on a range of policy selection factors such as: Security, employment, financial burden, productivity, biodiversity, nature, water quality, traffic congestion, green spaces, walkability, sprawl, pollution, erosion, flooding, noise, spirituality, family relations, community integrity, equality, social support, education, knowledge, literacy, science, recreation, material, health, stress, self-reflection, compassion, tolerance, generosity, information, culture, corruption, discrimination, rights, judiciary, values, and participation.

Figure 39: The Oxfam Doughnut – A safe and just operating space for humanity Outside the Doughnut are dangerous environmental tipping points, while the space below the social foundation represents unacceptable human deprivation (Raworth, 2012).

Source: Lisa Pretorius. “Gross National Happiness (GNH) in Bhutan”. 2014. www.slideshare.net/gaiamuffin/gnh-govinn-october-2014

Source: WWF. “Living Planet Report 2014”. wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/

WWF Living Planet Report 2014 page 68

Transition from a growth to a stable state economy

LPR2014 chapter 2.indd 68

06/08/2014 14:14

Why is it important?

Exponential growth, when dependent on growth in resource consumption and goods production, is physically impossible.

A transition from the current system and notion of endless growth as something necessary and positive, to a stable system that allows consumption of the actual physical resources that can be reproduced yearly on this planet, and no more, is vital to ensure the continued prosperity and stability of our society. Current growth is false, since the natural capital (resource base etc.) is being deminished more rapidly than monetary and capital increases.

what makes it challenging?

The possibility of abandoning the current economic paradigm presents itself either when the masses and the governing bodies realize the impossible metrics of the current system - that we can do better, or when the current system collapses, forcing something new to be born out of its ashes. The vision is to maximize happiness and well-being with less consumption by sharing work (working less), consuming less, while devoting more time to art, music, family, culture and community.

Current growth -> Degrowth -> Stable state

Old habits die hard. The current system is extremely incorporated in all layers of society from local consumption, globalized production and transportation, in political and economical assessment studies, and as the most influencial factors in decision making. The notion that economic and activity growth is desirable is extremely established in the public opinion.

Transitional challenges that are likely to arise: • Temporarily increased poverty for those already on low incomes.

• Too few new jobs because people already in work take on more overtime.

• Resistance from employers because of

rising costs and skills shortages.

• Resistance from employees and trade unions because of the impact on earnings in all income brackets.

These negative effects can be dampened by: • Reducing hours gradually over a number of years in line with annual wage increments.

• Systematical discouragement of overtime.

• Systematically rewarding employers when taking on extra staff.

• Ensuring more stable and equal distribution of earnings.

• Promote flexible arrangements to suit employees, such as job sharing, extended care leave and sabbaticals. library of knowledge and parameters for design

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renewable intermittency

energy usage efficiency

Source: “Grid energy storage”. Wikipedia. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage

Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 2014. www.llnl.gov Source: Real Clear Energy. “Renewables Provide Half of Germany’s Power - For A Few Hours”. 2013. www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2013/04/26/renewables_provide_half_germanys_power_-_for_one_day_106986.html

efficient use and storage of energy with fusion as balancing power source Why is it important?

If technologies with higher efficiency can be used to achieve the same result as a less efficient technology, the necessary amount of energy harvesting can be reduced. As an example one can compare the combustion and electric engine: The combustion engine is only able to transform 30-35% of the energy input into motion, while the rest becomes heat and noise, the electric motor is 90% efficient.

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Storing energy generated during periods of low energy demand (off-peak), for use during high demand periods, will be increasingly important when balancing intermittent renewable energy sources. Storage technologies are developing

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library of knowledge and parameters for design

rapidly, and will have to be implemented at a grid scale to be effective and sufficient.

Interesting technologies (2015-efficiency) include: Compressed air (60-85%), flywheels (85%), pumped hydroelectric (50-75%), hydrogen fuel cells (30-40%), batteries (5085%), thermal (70-80%), molten salt (60-70%)

what makes it challenging?

Fusion power can become a balancing power source in periods when the intermittent renewable sources can’t meet demands.

Operation is safe and self-contained, nuclear waste is only dangerous for 50-100 years, instead of thousands of years for fission waste, and it can be fueled by practically endless raw material supplies.

Storing energy, regardless of technology, will never be 100% effective, even though some technologies have a nearly lossless theoretical potential. Energy storage systems are expensive, and in some cases represent a potential danger, since the energy storage

The cost of the most efficient technologies might be higher, and might require subsidies to gain momentum in the market to allow further advances that eventually reduce the cost to competing levels.

medium often has a high temperature and/ or pressure. Matching energy production with energy consumption at all times during the day is the best solution when possible.

That is where fusion power becomes important.

Despite being technically non-renewable, fusion power has many of the benefits of traditional renewable energy sources (such as being a long-term energy supply without emissions). Disadvantages include high research and development costs, the fact that the nuclear waste produced has to be managed and stored for 100 years.

hydrogen production

Source: Hydrogen Cars Now. “Hawaii Home Hydrogen Fueling Stations Planned by H2 Technologies” 2008. www.hydrogencarsnow.com/blog2/index.php/hydrogen-fuelproduction/hawaii-home-hydrogen-fueling-stations-planned-by-h2-technologies/

Source: Forskningsrådet. “Ønsker større fransk-norsk samarbeid” 2006. www.forskningsradet.no/no/Nyheter/nsker_strre_fransknorsk_samarbeid/1236685410142

hydrogen production from excess electricity Why is it important?

what makes it challenging?

Hydrogen is a clean, non-polluting and efficient fuel, that can fuel everything from cars, buildings and industrial processes to airplanes and space rockets.

Hydrogen requires a lot of energy to produce.

Surplus electricity in the grid can be routed to a hydrogen plant and used to make fuel for consumption at a later stage. This way it will be viable to over-produce energy off-peak from renewable sources, and by that justify a certain over-investment in renewable energy production.

It might be difficult to match electricity production and consumption at all times due to unpredictable renewable energy sources.

Electricity is principally a perishable goods, and ideally it should be used at the same time it is produced. With the massive introduction of renewable and uncontrollable sources such as solar and wind, there will be difficulties

meeting the exact demands at all times all days, especially since the energy consumption is often higher when the production is lower, and vice versa.

Hydrogen use in transportation is not very effective (roughly 40% from grid to wheel), and can’t compete with battery electric vehicles on price or efficiency. But since Hydrogen can be filled on a fuel tank in just a couple of minutes, instead of more than an hour for batteries, it can compete with the advantages of the fossil fuels.

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current economy

resource cycles

zero waste city solutions

circular economy

Source: George Dearing. “Evolving our view on zero waste”. 2013. Sustainably speaking. www.sustainablyspeaking.com/2013/05/01/evolving-our-view-of-zero-waste/ Source: Lehmann, S.; Zaman, A.U.; Devlin, J.; Holyoak, N. “Supporting Urban Planning of Low-Carbon Precincts: Integrated Demand Forecasting.” Sustainability 2013, 5

Source: James Gien Varney-Wong. “Cradle-to-Cradle” www.ingienous.com

“the zero waste city” through a circular economy Why is it important?

Waste is a result of systemic inefficiency, and can be combated with behavioural change through awareness, education and technology, more efficient lifecycles and fierce reusing and recycling. Stringent incentives and legislations are vital to achieving increased efficiency in the circular economy.

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In nature everything is recycled and returned to the ecosystem in ancient feedback processes.

We need to adapt our current linear resource depleting consumption system to a system where our products are either stored in the soil like it was, or recycled back as a resource for reproduction. library of knowledge and parameters for design

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what makes it challenging?

1. Avoid producing surplus goods.

2. By-products are sources for new products.

3. Enhance durability, repairability and recyclability of products, buildings and goods.

4. Promote communal reuse with platforms such as Finn.no, flea markets and local exchange networks.

5. Make recycling easy and intuitive.

6. Increase recovery of recyclable materials from waste streams.

7. Store and protect the environment from what can’t be recycled.

Manufacturing lies at the heart of consumption, It is clear that we need not only a paradigm shift in the way we consume, but also in the way we manufacture.

Being less bad is not being good. It is not good enough to continue designing in the old paradigm and making incremental improvements in it. What is required is to abandon this paradigm and replace it with a new one.

Solar energy is the main input to the system, which sustains natural inputs and environmental services used as units of production. Once consumed, natural inputs pass out of the economy as pollution and waste. The environments ability to absorb and render harmless waste and pollution decides the maximum waste output. Different pollutants are absorbed at different rates.

have a per capita Ecological Footprint no larger than the per capita biocapacity available on the planet, while maintaining a decent standard of living. The latter can be defined as a score of 0.71 or For a inequality-adjusted country’s development to be replicable worldwide, it must above on the UNDP’s Human Development have a per capita Ecological Footprint no larger than the per capita Index (IHDI) (UNDP, 2013). Currently, no country meets both biocapacity available on the planet, while maintaining a decent human development index of these criteria (Figure 36). standard of living. The latter can be defined as a score of 0.71 or

The path to sustainable development

compared to ecological footprint

10

8

6

6

4

2 Minimum global sustainable development quadrant

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.4

Minimum global sustainable development quadrant

0.6

0.8

UN Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI)

0.4

0.6

0.8

0 1.0

4

2

0 1.0

Ecological Footprint per capita (gha)

8

Ecological Footprint per capita (gha)

Human Development

Very High Human Development Very High

High Human Development

Low Human Development

High Human Medium HumanDevelopment Development

Low Human Development

Medium Human Development

above on the UNDP’s inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) (UNDP, 2013). Currently, no country meets both 10 of these criteria (Figure 36).

Figure 36: Correlating the Ecological Footprint with IHDI Figure 36: Correlating (latest data sets) the Ecological The dots representing Footprint with IHDI (latest data sets) each country are The dots representing coloured according to each country are their geographic coloured according to region their scaled geographic region to and relative and scaled relative to (Global their population their population (Global Footprint Network, Footprint Network, 2014; 2014; UNDP, 2013).

UNDP, 2013).

Key

Key Africa

Africa Middle East/ Central Asia

Middle East/

Asia -Pacific Asia Central

South America UN Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) The path of progression to achieve sustainable development Asia America/ -Pacific Central Source: WWF. “Living Planet Report 2014”. wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/ Caribbean varies between countries. Development and improved living South America standards are, up to a point, linked to growing consumption of North America The path ofecological progression to achieve sustainable development Central America/ services: the high human development in developed EU Caribbean varies between countries.

Development and improved living countries has been achieved at the expense of a high Ecological Other Europe Decoupling reversing this relationship is aof key global standards are, up Footprint. to a point, linkedand to growing consumption North America challenge. The challenge for countries in the bottom-left sector is meaningful maturity. makes it challenging? ecological services: the high human what development in developed EU to significantly increase their IHDI without significantly increasing The most important currency in society is not Opinion altering strategies are controversial, countries beentheir achieved atFootprint the expense a highin Ecological Ecological and for of countries the upper-right sector Some systemichas causes: money, but trust.Europe The trust between people and even though they definitely are more common Other • Excess consumption in–relation to IHDI – to reduce with and high their Footprints.

Footprint.

Decoupling reversing this relationship is a key global between the people and the decision makers is than most people think. population levels. the glue that holds our society together.

With 10-year data intervals of HDI available (IHDI was not • Exponential The economic growth as for the main challenge. challenge countries in the bottom-left sector is Humans of the stone age knew far more about introduced until 2010), a plot of HDI versus Ecological Footprint is measurement of progress and quality of life.

Developing trust in handling complex and the world and the biosphere than we do today. to increase their IHDI without significantly increasing • significantly The neglection of life cycle when able thinking to show countries’ direction of progression (Figure 37).

While unprecedented problems is more difficult than They knew where in nature to find building calculating energy and environmental not adjusted for inequality – which tends tohow be greater in countries seeking trust based on confirmation of current tools, where to hunt, to make medicine their Ecological Footprint and for countries in the upper-right sector impacts. policies. etc.

We need to reconnect humanity its they with low HDI – trends of several selected countries show to that – with high IHDI – to reduce their Footprints. surroundings, to the basis of life that sustains Visually co-locating the “dirty of their level havebackside” improved of human development since 1980. every one of us. consumption, freight, transport and other With 10-year data intervals of HDI (IHDI was not China and the USA show available the most striking movement. space and energy consumers with the daily The growth in China’s HDIversus has beenEcological accompaniedFootprint by accelerating introduced 2010), a plot of HDI is travel patterns ofuntil the people will create resource use, particularly in the last decade. The USA’s per capita awareness of the impacts of life in the city. able to show countries’ direction of progression (Figure 37). While Ecological Footprint trended upward between 1980 and 2000 until library of knowledge and parameters for design

shaping public opinion through creating awareness

Why is it important?

The contemporary climate debate is quite active when it comes to talking, but falls way short when it comes to doing. Still, the debates haven’t yet reached a maturity where we’re actually incorporating the totality of the complex problematics we face.

And since climate change is only a symptom, not a cause, treating climate change will not cure the disease that’s ravaging the earth.

Identifying the causes of the mess we have inflicted on ourselves, and discussing what can be done to remediate and alter them will lift the debate from immature insignificance into

not adjusted for inequality – which tends to be greater in countries

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smart city layers smart city connections smart city parameters

Source: Angela Guess. “IBM & Deutsche Telekom Working Toward Smarter Cities”. Dataversity. www.dataversity.net/ibm-deutsche-telekom-working-toward-smarter-cities/

Source: Civic Resource Group. “Civic connect”. www.civicresource.com/pages/whatwedo/CivicConnect_Product.aspx

Source: Alok Bharti. “Creating Resilient and Smart Cities”. 2014. www.bhartiweb.com/creating-resilient-and-smart-cities-2/

Smart city technology and metrics Why is it important?

Integration of public services with the internet of things and active monitoring, ensures a more efficient use of time and resources.

If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.

Urban metrics, measuring the flow of energy, waste, people, economy and other parameters provide a strong base for managing the city both on a daily basis and when planning for the future. Smart and automatic sensors can improve this process by providing data.

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library of knowledge and parameters for design

what makes it challenging?

Smart grids can share and optimize the flow of heat and energy between buildings and neighborhoods in the city.

The internet of things can be controversial, since it represents a previously unknown level of monitoring of daily activities. This will likely change with time, and become an integrated and accepted part of urban life.

It also represents a potential danger, since all code - no matter how secure - can be hacked and exploited for mischief or unjustified surveillance.

litterature list Allen, Myles. 2009.

“Planetary boundaries: Tangible targets are critical” Nature Reports Climate Change. Nature.

Atkins, Roger. 2012.

“Resource Efficient, Low Carbon Cities” Environmental Sustainability Knowledge Transfer Network, University of Oxford Berger, Markus; Finkbeiner, Matthias. 2010.

“Water Footprinting: How to Address Water Use in Life Cycle Assessment?”

Sustainability 2, no. 4 Bradshaw, Corey; Brook, Barry. 2014.

“Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems” The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide Brown, L. 2011.

“World on the Edge” Earth Policy Institute.

Coote, Anna; Franklin, Jane; Simms, Andrew. 2010.

“21 hours: Why a shorter working week can help us all to flourish in the 21st century” New Economics Foundation.

D’Alisa, Giacomo; Demaria, Federico; Kallis, Giorgos. 2014.

“Degrowth: A Vocabulary for a New Era” Routledge.

Eisenstein, Charles; Moser-Katz, Seth; Ritchie, Justin. 2012.

“Living Without Economic Growth” Extraenvironmentalist, Vimeo. http://vimeo.com/54199462 FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 2010.

“Global hunger declining, but still unacceptably high” FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 2006.

“Food Security” Finkbeiner, Matthias; Schau, Erwin M.; Lehmann, Annekatrin; Traverso, Marzia. 2010.

“Towards Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment.”

Sustainability 2, no. 10

Fuller, Buckminster. 1969.

“Operating Manual For Spaceship Earth” Fusion For Energy, The European Joint Undertaking for ITER and the Development of Fusion Energy. 2015.

“What is Fusion?”

Heinonen, Jukka; Junnila, Seppo. 2011.

“A Carbon Consumption Comparison of Rural and Urban Lifestyles” Sustainability 2011, 3, Aalto University School of Engineering.

Hui, C. 2006.

“Carrying capacity, population equilibrium, and environment’s maximal load” Ecological Modelling, 192.

Jauhiainen, Jussi.

“Urban Utopias, Revolutions and the 21st Century City”.

Khasreen, Mohamad M.; Banfill, Phillip F. G.; Menzies, Gillian F. 2009.

“Life-Cycle Assessment and the Environmental Impact of Buildings: A Review.”

Sustainability 1, no. 3 Lehmann, Steffen; Zaman, Atiq U.; Devlin, John; Holyoak, Nicholas. 2013.

“Supporting Urban Planning of Low-Carbon Precincts: Integrated Demand Forecasting.”

Sustainability 5, no. 12 Lieberherr, Françoise. 2006.

“21st century utopias for sustainable cities” Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, no. 13 Neurath, Paul. 1994.

“From Malthus to the Club of Rome and Back” M.E. Sharpe.

Peel, M; Finlayson, B; McMahon, T. 2007.

“Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification” Hydrological Earth Systems Science 11.

Stockholm Resilience Centre. 2015.

“Planetary boundaries research”

library of knowledge and parameters for design

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litterature list continued Ryerson, William. 2010.

“Managing the 21st Century’s Sustainability Crises” The Post Carbon Reader, Watershed.

US Department of Energy. 2015.

“Smart Grid” http://energy.gov/oe/services/technology-development/smart-grid

Salvador, Óscar Jiménez. 2014.

“Biomimicry and City Design”.

The Meiated City Conference, Architecture MPS, Woodbury University.

US Environmental Protection Agency. 2015.

“Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)”

Schröder, Jörg. 2015.

“Agropolis - from the Spoon to the City” EWT/ EcoWebTown, SCUT, University Chieti-Pescara Smartgrids.eu. 2015.

“Smart Grids European Technology Platform” http://www.smartgrids.eu/ Tantram, Dominic. 2014.

“Sustainable energy - the many dimensions of energy quality” Terrafiniti. http://www.terrafiniti.com/blog/what-is-sustainable-energy/

“The 2010 Gross National Happiness Index: Part I + II” The Centre for Bhutan Studies & GNH Research Toftdahl, Hanne; Reinvang, Rasmus. 2013.

“Næringsutvikling i Osloregionen - vekstmuligheter i alternative utbyggingsmønstre” Vista analyse AS, Plansamarbeidet Oslo Akershus.

Turner, Graham. 2014.

“Is Global Collapse Imminent?”

MSSI Research Paper No. 4, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne Ura, Dasho Karma; Penjore, Dorji. 2008.

“GNH Policy and Project Selection Tools” The Centre for Bhutan Studies & GNH Research Urban Scrawl, Retrofit, URBED. 2011.

“A Community Green Deal” UK Department for Transport. 2015.

“Sustainable travel”

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Varney-Wong, James Gien. 2014.

“A Resource-based Economy”, “Circular Economy”, Cradle-to-Cradle Manufacturing Overhaul”, “Ecological Sewage Treatment”, “Economic Solutions”, “Local Economies - Small is Beautiful”, “Local Food Economy”, “Urban Farming”, “Zero Growth Economy”.

Ingienous designs. http://www.ingienous.com Warshay, Brian. 2013.

“The Great Compression: The Future of the Hydrogen Economy” Lux Research Inc Webster’s Online Dictionary. 2015.

“Depopulate” Wiedmann, Thomas; Barrett, John. 2010.

“A Review of the Ecological Footprint Indicator—Perceptions and Methods.”

Sustainability 2, no. 6 World Population Balance. 2015 “Current Population is Three Times the Sustainable Level” http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/ World Wildlife Fund (WWF). 2014.

“What does ecological overshoot mean?”

World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Global Footprint Network and Zoological Society of London.

“Living Planet Report 2010” World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Global Footprint Network, Water Footprint Network and Zoological Society of London.

“Living Planet Report 2014” Zehner, Ozzie. 2012.

“Green Illusions” London, University of Nebraske Press.