Seasonal Climate Outlook

The farmer of 2030 embraces change. Are you ready?

By Dana Muir, Head of Natural Capital, BNZ.

A deep connection with the land. A natural, rural lifestyle. A desire for mastery of the agricultural craft. What drives farmers hasn’t changed for generations, but how they do it is shifting dramatically.

Right now, farmers are facing global and enduring megaforces that are having a deep impact on their industry. We asked farmers and growers to share with us those megaforces they perceived as having a large influence on their agribusiness in 2021. Our third Shift Happens – Future of Agribusiness report released in December shows the most influential of these is rural connectivity, which is essential to increasing the use of technology and digital data collection. Also high on the list are risks to the supply chain, the rise of the ‘conscious consumer’ – those who have a vested interest in where their food comes from and how it’s produced – risks to geopolitical trade, climate change, and labour restrictions.

The perception of the most influential megaforces come 2030 evolves. Current expected key megaforces are increased innovation, a greater prevalence of ‘food as medicine’, an enhanced focus on biodiversity, and the continued rise of the conscious consumer.

THE IMPACT OF CHANGE

But how are farmers feeling about this change, and how smooth is the path to embrace it? The report shows a clear divide between those who feel empowered by change, and those who find it daunting. While 53 percent of respondents see the changing landscape of the sector as an opportunity for their agribusiness, 47 percent see it as a threat. Regardless of how they feel about change overall, most farmers and growers view the current pace of regulatory change as ‘too much, too fast’., When it comes to change driven by the market/suppliers, 56 percent feel the change is ‘about right’.

So how will this explosive transformation play out between now and 2030? Who is the farmer of 2030 and how will they be set up to meet these increasing demands? Here’s what I believe they’ll look like: • They’ll be innovative and digitally active – creating efficiencies enabled by technology. • They’ll be highly attuned to the needs of the conscious consumer, including their demand for longterm, sustainable farming practices. • They’ll work with nature, not only to satisfy demand for sustainable farming, but to leave a legacy for future generations. • They’ll be incredibly engaged in the conversation about change, contributing to catchment groups and proactive industry actions. • Finally, they’ll be the same farmers we have in 2021, they’ll just be more prepared for change, with a proactive mindset embracing innovations, research, and solutions offered by both the sector and businesses – continually adapting along the way.

STEPPING AHEAD

But how are farmers planning to take the small steps and giant leaps to get to where they need to be in 2030? Our report shows diversifying land use is on the todo list for many. Use of technology is also on the rise, with more and more farmers exploring innovative ways to increase profitability without the