Growing soybeans Issue 9 Winter 2013

For Western Canadian Soybean Growers

Issue 9/Winter 2013

Table of Contents Publisher Ray Wytinck NorthStar Genetics

Editorial

Editor Jenny Flaman jenny@impactgr.com

It’s So Important to Make a Good First Impression

Art Director Kate Klassen kate@impactgr.com Copy Editors Cheryl Manness Heidi Brown Vicki Manness Contributors Bruce Barker Craig Manness Nadine Dzisiak Ron Friesen John Dietz Gina Borhot Sarah Foster

pg 3

pg 5

The Relativity of Corn and Soybean Markets pg 8

Economic Analysis of Soybeans in Saskatchewan pg 12

Soybeans Pull Through Despite Late Start pg 16

Is Earlier Really Better?

Photographers Anita Anseeuw Kate Klassen Printed by Transcontinental Imaging For another copy of Growing Soybeans call 204-262-2424 or e-mail kperfumo@northstargeneticsmb.com For a digital copy visit weknowbeans.com

pg 20

Who’s the New Up and Comer? pg 25

The Western Soybean Surge from the Eastern Perspective pg 28

Foster’s Focus Earth Matters pg 31

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Oh, the Possibilities

W

ith the end of another growing season comes the time to plan for next year and decide which soybean varieties to try out. As soybeans become more popular, new varieties are becoming available for more and more areas, and companies are putting more energy and resources behind developing soybean technology, which will some day leave soybean growers with an abundance of options.

We’ve also looked into the soybean market in Saskatchewan with an economic analysis from Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc., as well as looked at the eastern perspective regarding the western soybean boom and whether their take on it is positive or negative.

And with all of the issues there were for growers at the beginning of the season, we have delved into some of the challenges growers might have faced to see what It is our goal to provide enough information results they saw in the end. to growers for them to know how to select the right varieties for their farms, to know As always, we would love to hear from any all of the ins and outs of growing soybeans, of our readers about specific story ideas how to select a variety that will suit their that you would like to see us look into and land, and how to see it through to the highest feature in Growing Soybeans, so please feel free to contact me at any time with topics yields at the end of the season. or issues.

Something that has also come along with the growing popularity of soybeans in As your winter season has now begun, with Western Canada is the growing popularity plans for vacations and new ideas for next of corn in Western Canada. So much so that year, I hope you take some time to dig into Monsanto has announced their investment this issue of Growing Soybeans. to develop earlier maturing corn hybrids in hopes of bringing “significant economic growth to western Canadian agriculture,� as said by Mike Nailor, corn and soybean lead for Canada.

With this development in mind we have looked into how corn as a booming crop for Western Canada will affect the soybean market and cropping acres with some insight from the U.S. market and Al Kluis of Kluis Commodities.

3

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It’s So Important to Make a Good First Impression

By Nadine Dzisiak

What impression are soybeans making on first-time growers in Saskatchewan?

S

oybeans have come a long way when you consider that they were almost nonexistent in Western Canada 25 years ago. Intensive breeding programs have resulted in more growing possibilities across Canada. No longer restricted by climate and conditions found in southern Ontario, soybean production has soared in Manitoba and has started in Saskatchewan in recent years.

Farmers in Saskatchewan and Manitoba have chosen to trust the new early-maturing soybean varieties in spite of the risks and vagaries of prairie weather, and they haven’t been disappointed.

For Wendy and Fred Stilborn, owners and operators of Shadow Creek Farms in Balcarres, Saskatchewan, it is their third year of growing soybeans. “We tried 10 acres in 2011, 260 acres in 2012,” explains Fred, “and this year we have seeded 900 acres in soybean.”

These acreages translate to 13 percent of their total cultivated acres in 2013 compared to five percent seeded in soybeans in 2012. Their motivation? “We wanted to introduce a pulse crop into our rotation and felt that soybean was the best fit for our operation.”

Chad Skinner, on the other hand, farms at Indian Head, Saskatchewan, and is a first-time grower of soybeans this year. “We like growing new stuff on the farm. Soybeans showed potential. A couple of neighbours grew small acreages and had success.” He has put in 65 acres this year in soybeans.

Neither the Stilborns nor Skinner identified the marketing of soybeans as a factor in considering growing them. The Stilborns sold their crop to a feed mill the first two years, but this year they’ve contracted Paterson Grain to market their soybeans for them, and they expect to sell them over the next five months.

Skinner, too, will likely store his soybeans until December. “I grew them this year as a specialty crop, not a cash crop. You can sell them anywhere.”

5

Soybeans, however, like to be seeded in soil that is at least 10 degrees C. The seed spends its first 10 hours absorbing water and if the soil and moisture are too cold, that could affect the plant’s metabolism. Last year’s weather on the Prairies was perfect for soybeans, and that success has been a significant spur to increase acreage this year. But as Skinner points out, this year was different.

“This year’s weather was great for any crop except soybean. We had a late spring, and we seeded into cold ground. We had no significant rainfall after the second week of July.”

The Stilborns’ farm had similar weather, and they don’t expect their crop to reach its full potential. All that said, both Skinner and the Stilborns are satisfied with their choice of soybean variety. “For the moisture we got this year,” says Fred, “the crop looks good.”

Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture recommends corn heat units (CHU) as the best measure farmers have at this time in deciding whether their area is suitable for growing soybeans;

however, it is not the only factor that affects soybean maturity. Soybeans are a light sensitive crop, so the amount of daylight has an impact on their maturity, also. It’s important “to have data for your area and to gain the experience yourself.”

Plot trials and research on soybean varieties are important factors and necessary for farmers to make informed decisions.

There has been a marked improvement, according to the Stilborns and Skinner, in demonstrations of soybean varieties in their areas.

Danny Petty, Manager of Indian Head Agricultural Research Foundation at Indian Head, Saskatchewan, confirms the increased interest in soybeans. “This year there were five plots dedicated and two fields in the test. Last year there was one trial. Next year will see more than this year. Until now,” Petty says, “the trials have been driven by the seed companies. In 2014, funding will come from pulse growers as part of the Growing Forward 2 program of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.”

Neither the Stilborns nor Skinner experienced any difficulty in seeding their soybeans that included dual inoculation. The Stilborns had their seed inoculated through their seed supplier via a local seed dealer.

Some of their seed was triple inoculated.

Skinner dual inoculated: once through the seed company, who used a liquid inoculant; then a granular inoculant that Skinner used in the seed row.

“To our advantage,” explains Skinner, “we are long time lentil growers, and soybean

demands about the same care: a clean field, a rolled field, and a tender touch with the seed so that it doesn’t crack. It’s pretty simple; just seed it and forget it.”

The Stilborns and Skinner are hoping for a yield of 30 bu/acre. “Last year,” says Skinner, “growers were getting anything from high 20s to low 40s, but it was a perfect year.”

The Stilborns will plant soybeans again if they continue to be profitable. Like all legumes, soybeans can “fix” the nitrogen that plants need from the air, thus saving the farmer the cost of fertilizer. They are also a good source of nitrogen replenishment in fields, and for their farm it has been a good choice for their rotation.

Will the first-time grower grow soybeans again? “Yes,” Skinner agrees, “but on a small scale. Over the long term you need to be assured of mid to late summer moisture.

This will be the limiting factor; Indian Head doesn’t usually get that rain.”

“I would add them to rotation instead of another pulse,” adds Skinner, “but I would not exchange them for canola. Growers are looking at 50-60 bu/acre canola this year.

Even at $10/bu, canola is better than 25-30 bu/acre soybean. If I reduced any acreage for soybeans, it would probably be lentil and peas.”

What advice is offered to those farmers thinking of getting into soybean production?

“Make sure you roll your land and use a flex header,” recommends Fred Stilborn.

“Wait until the ground is warm enough before seeding, and remember that straw management of the previous crop is crucial.”

“Don’t put any more acres into soybeans than you can afford to lose,” advises Chad Skinner. “There is still the risk factor in weather. If you get an August frost or a summer drought, your wheat will still come through, but will soybean? Plant the earliest variety, and see what happens.”

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The Relativity of Corn and Soybean Markets

By Bruce Barker

Corn acres and price under pressure. Soybean acreage predicted to grow in Western Canada.

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B

y fall 2013 the numbers were coming in and they looked enormous. The United States Department of Agriculture estimated that U.S. corn production would easily break the record of 13.1 billion bushels set in 2009.

These production figures fell generally in line with what traders were expecting, and corn prices have fallen 40 percent from the record high $8.30s per bushel down to trade in the $4.00 to $4.40 range for December 2013 corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean production in the U.S. was estimated around five percent lower than previous July projections, but would still reach 3.255 billion bushels – the third largest crop on record. Soybean futures have dropped 22 percent from the September 2012 record of $17.71 per bushel. CBOT November 2013 futures were trading at approximately $12.80 per bushel.

At press time, the next USDA crop report on October 11, 2013 was pending and would provide further direction to traders and farmers who are making their marketing and seeded acreage plans for 2014. But with soybean prices high relative to corn, soybean acreage is headed up around the world, while corn acres are likely to decline.

Already, soybean seeded acreage is on the rise in South America as the Sept./ Oct. planting season is underway. Brazil is expected to have 71 million acres of

soybean and if production forecasts are correct, Brazil could surpass the U.S. in soybean production for the first time, ever.

Despite the large production and expected seeded acreage in South America, soybean acreage in North America is expected to grow slightly, at the expense of corn.

“I’ve done a few initial studies and it appears to me that we may gain two million acres of soybeans or more in North America in 2014 with people planting more soybean and less corn. I think the U.S. soybean acreage will rise from 75 million acres to 77 to 78 million acres,” says Al Kluis, president and managing partner of Kluis

eastern Saskatchewan will continue to grow, depending on how the 2013 yields of soybean and canola turned out, and on projected net returns on the basket of crops grown in Western Canada.

“Right now, the soybean to corn price ratio is about three to one in favour of soybean.

If it stays that way, I can see a shift towards soybean away from corn acres,” says Voth.

“In Western Canada, the soybean acres will depend on how canola did in 2013.

I’m hearing reports of 40 to 50 bushel per acre canola and 30 to 36 bushel per acre soybeans. Farmers will need to figure out their projected profitability on those crops when making their decision for 2014.”

Soybean acreage continues to rise dramatically in Western Canada, and I’m still excited about the potential for more expansion in soybean production.

Commodities in Wayzata, Minnesota. “That is subject to review depending on pricing when farmers finalize their cropping plans between February and May of 2014.”

In Western Canada, Manitoba seeded acres hit one million acres in 2013. Brian Voth, a senior market-coach with AgriTrend Marketing at Altona, Manitoba says that soybean acreage in Manitoba and

Typically, soybeans are 2.4 to 2.5 times higher priced than corn, and with the ratio at three to one, corn acres in the U.S. and South America will continue to move to soybean.

“One thing I look at is the relative price and profit level the market is at, and right now soybeans are really quite high versus corn,” says Kluis.

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Voth says soybeans are quite a bit cheaper to grow than canola, and have been running at a $1.50 per bushel premium over canola, so penciling out profit is critical for determining seeded acreage for 2014. Normally, canola is priced at a premium to soybean because canola has higher oil content. On both sides of the border in the Red River Valley, and further west into Saskatchewan, soybean acres also compete with other crops like edible beans, wheat, and barley. With bumper yields for many crops, soybean

profitability will be measured against not only corn and canola, but these other crops as well.

Hogstad says the market was fairly stagnant in Western Canada until 2004 when the first early maturing variety was introduced. At the same time, profitability looked better on soybeans than wheat, and a series of wet years in the late 2000s and early 2010s had soybeans performing better than canola in Western Canada.

The expanding soybean frontier

“Soybean acreage continues to rise dramatically in Western Canada, and I’m still excited about the potential for more expansion in soybean production,” says Hogstad.

The expansion of soybeans into Western Canada has been nothing short of remarkable. In Manitoba, the crop has gone from virtually zero to over one million acres in 10 short years. Saskatchewan had the first official Statistics Canada recording of 170,000 acres of soybeans grown in 2013. That’s a trend that mirrors the movement of soybeans northward and westward in the U.S. since 1963 says Dan Hogstad, CEO of NorthStar Genetics at Wanamingo, Minnesota.

“We’ve seen the gradual progression of soybeans from the traditional areas along the Mississippi and east central U.S. up into Minnesota and the Red River Valley and west into South and North Dakota,” says Hogstad.

Hogstad explains there was a big jump in soybean acres in the Red River Valley when Roundup Ready soybeans were introduced in the U.S. in 1998. The 1998 wheat harvest was terrible with yields in the five to 10 bushel-per-acre range because of a rust infestation, and farmers were looking for a new crop and new ways to control weeds like kochia. Roundup Ready soybeans fit the bill.

The U.S. experience mirrors the expansion of soybeans in Western Canada, with the introduction of early maturing Roundup Ready soybeans.

For 2014, Hogstad likes the prospects for expanded soybean acres versus canola.

With a bumper canola crop in Western Canada, prices will remain under pressure.

Conversely, he believes that the large world market for soybeans provides better support for soybeans.

“There is a big, global market for soybeans, so I’m less concerned about the profitability for soybeans in 2014 than for a crop like canola,” says Hogstad.

Moving through the fall and winter of 2013/14, Kluis recommends that farmers continue to market their old and new crop soybeans.

“I’m more inclined to look for prices to sell soybeans during the fourth quarter of 2013 and first quarter of 2014. When you look at the futures alignment, the January 2014 contracts for soybean today [Oct. 1] are 50 cents higher than the July 2014 contracts. That indicates that prices are very likely to move lower as you get into next spring and summer unless you have some major weather problem in South America,” explains Kluis. “Unfortunately, some people have gotten used to $15 to $16 soybeans, and if you aren’t aware of the risk, you could end up storing those soybeans for a lot longer and taking a lot less three to six months from now.”

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Economic Analysis of Soybeans in Saskatchewan

By John Dietz

What are soybeans in Saskatchewan looking like from an economic perspective? Where are the opportunities for Saskatchewan soybeans? What is the forecast for the Saskatchewan soybean market?

May, as Manitoba soybean growers were planting another record crop. This time, the million-acre threshold was crossed in the Keystone province.

he market potential for Saskatchewan soybeans is nothing less than wonderful. It is only limited by ability to successfully grow the heat-loving, long-season crop.

Mercantile Consulting, at Portage and Main, was in a good position to answer that question.

T

That is the notebook version of a 2013 report on soybean markets commissioned by the Saskatchewan Pulse Growers Association.

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Soybeans already are more than a casual crop in the province where wheat was king for a century. Estimated seeded acres of soybeans in Saskatchewan, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture, rose to about 170,000 acres in 2013.

Mercantile Consulting Venture, Winnipeg, completed the soybean market analysis in

Marlene Boersch, managing partner in Mercantile Consulting, took a broad view of the soybean industry market potential for Western Canada, with emphasis on Saskatchewan.

The association was wondering what the outlook was like for western soybeans, if the production doors were thrown wide open with new varieties.

The consultant partners have more than 60 years of experience in global commodity markets, with a focus on risk management and market intelligence. They work with international companies on various commodities and with individual farmers

Figure 1 as market advisors. They also do project work, such as the soybean study.

The consultant reviewed the global supplyand-demand situation first.

“Soybean production by the major producers in the world has increased from about 187 million tons (MT) in 2003 to about 268 MT today. That’s an increase of 48 percent in a decade,” she said. “In agricultural commodities, you don’t often see that.”

Exports have increased even more than production. Soybean exports in that period have gone from 56 MT in 2003 to nearly 100 MT in 2012, an increase of 77 percent.

Thousand Tonnes

2,000 1,500 1,000

Ontario

500

Quebec

0

20 02 / 20 03 03 / 20 04 04 / 20 05 05 / 20 06 06 / 20 07 07 20 /08 08 / 20 09 09 / 20 10 10 / 20 11 11 / 20 12 12 /1 3

Manitoba

Crop Year

Source: Based on Canada Grain Council and AAFC MAG data, December 2012

Figure 2 Soybean Exports 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000

Argentina

25,000

Brazil

20,000

Canada

15,000

Paraguay

10,000

Ukraine United States

5,000

Uruguay

20 12 /1 3

20 11 /1 2

20 10 /1 1

20 09 /1 0

20 08 /0 9

20 07 /0 8

0

20 06 /0 7

Boersch determined that the break-even price-and-yield formula for successful soybeans in Saskatchewan conditions, in early 2013, appeared to require 30 bushels per acre to “make it work.”

2,500

20 05 /0 6

“Saskatchewan acres are still very, very small. We had delays in the spring, but it still looks very promising for that production,” Boersch said in mid-September. “If we can address the agronomic problems, the market is hugely promising.”

3,000

20 04 /0 5

Saskatchewan’s fledgling soybean industry appears to be at about the 2003 growth stage of the Manitoba industry. It could “take off” if markets will support it and if the production constraints (primarily length of growing season) are lifted with new varieties.

3,500

20 03 /0 4

Soybeans are well established in Ontario and Quebec. It has only been about 10 years since Manitoba growers passed the 100,000-acre mark. Manitoba production has gone up the scale, from about 110,000 tonnes back in 2003 to an estimated 760,000 tonnes for 2013. (See Fig. 1)

Provincial Production

(1000 MT)

“We looked primarily at the international markets and the opportunities we have to trade into those markets,” Boersch said.

“The soybean industry in Western Canada is relatively young. We have been following particularly the production increases in Manitoba, which have been very steep over the last eight years.”

Crop Years

Source: Based on USDA Export Sales Query System, March 2013

Figure 3

Source: Mercantile basis various trade forecasts and own calculations

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The biggest single change in the equation has been with China. The world’s most populous country went from importing 16.9 MT of soybeans in 2003 to importing nearly 60 MT in 2012.

“That bodes very, very well for us. The countries shipping into that right now are Brazil and the U.S. They each ship in excess of 36 MT annually into the export market.”

(See Fig. 2)

“Our sailing time advantage from the West Coast to China is about 17 days shorter than from Mobile or Baton Rouge on the Gulf.

And, we are about 19 days better placed on ocean freight relative to Brazil. That’s pretty unique.”

The competitive situation for soybeans is very different for western Canadian growers compared to eastern growers and is also different for soybeans than many other western crops. For example, note the difference in competitive factors with trade in wheat between Black Sea origins and Canadian wheat to the Middle East and African nations.

I don’t know of any other single commodity that exhibits such an increase in projections.

Projecting trade expectations forward another dozen years, to 2025, both Mercantile Consulting and the USDA anticipate the global soybean trade will grow to about 150 MT – another increase of 50 percent. That’s unique.

“I don’t know of any other single commodity that exhibits such an increase in projections,” Boersch said Again, sales to China will be the biggest factor. (See Fig. 3) In that context, she said, Western Canada has a large ocean freight advantage over Brazil and the United States in shipping soybeans from the West Coast across the Pacific Ocean.

“At least, in ocean freight we have some very sizable freight advantages from Saskatchewan into China, specifically. We will be shipping out of the West Coast from Saskatchewan.”

Soybean exports to China from Brazil are first flowing east into the Atlantic Ocean.

Similarly, most U.S. soybean exports first head south into the Gulf of Mexico. Both result in longer distances across the oceans.

“That’s where the advantage lies. That is incredibly important,” Boersch said.

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“We have a severe disadvantage competing with wheat in that market; but with soybeans to China, that is not the case. We are the ones with the trade advantage,” Boersch said.

Canadians have done very well over the past decade in the soybean trade, she noted.

Soybean exports from Canada increased from about 895,000 tons to 2.6 MT, for instance.

Indicative of the trade advantage, she noted, Canada has developed good trade relations with China over this period. The soybean trade with China spiked upward in the past crop year, going from 166,000 tons to 951,000 tons.

“We have already made strides. We have made some big increases over the past year.

It seems that, what we are anticipating in increased soybean trade with China from Western Canada, is already starting to happen,” Boersch said.

Positive outlook The positive outlook for soybean trade from Western Canada goes beyond the West Coast shipping advantage.

Western Canada already has good relationships with some of the Chinese buyers because of canola.

Internally, Western Canada already has the infrastructure in place for shipping to the West Coast ports by rail or truck. Other bulk commodities, like canola and wheat, have been using the West Coast for decades.

Soybeans lend themselves to how Canada already uses its port system. Cleaning wheat takes up a portion of port capacity; soybeans generally do not need to be cleaned at the port, she said.

Soybeans produced in Western Canada will have other destinations than China. Canadian soybeans already have destinations this year into Egypt, Germany, and the Netherlands.

Soybeans have a level field for competition in that there are no fall-seeded soybeans. By comparison, wheat that is fall- or winterseeded tends to out-yield spring-seeded wheat.

There also are some domestic applications in Canada for soybean meal. About 360,000 tons of soybean meal is being imported now to Western Canada, and three times that much is imported into Eastern Canada. Some of the canola crushing capacity in Western Canada could be converted for soybean crush.

“If we grew more soybeans and started crushing them in Western Canada, you could actually substitute that import with

domestic meal,” she said. “It will take some investment. It takes a certain number of acres for people to feel comfortable with investing, but we would have a market for the soybean meal, domestically.”

According to the Mercantile Consulting market analysis for soybeans from Western Canada, there is a very promising future for the industry for several reasons – if the agronomic challenges continue to be met.

Saskatchewan growers will be entering a growing market with a trade advantage, and will be able to grow with the market.

well. In our opinion, the market demand side is not going to be a restrictive factor if we harness the agronomy.

“Companies like NorthStar are working on this and say they have some very promising seeds coming up that will address some of the issues,” Boersch said.

“I can’t think of a single major commodity where we have an export market opening that is presenting itself like we have with soybeans. A number of things work very

15

Soybeans Pull Through Despite Late Start

By Ron Friesen

It was a strange up-and-down kind of growing season for prairie soybean producers in 2013.

Spring was late in coming and some places still had snow on the ground near the end of April. A few soybeans did get planted between May 12 and 15, but most seeding was not underway until May 20. Some

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regions experienced heavy rains in late May just as planters were starting to hit the fields. Early-seeded soybeans sat in the cool soil for several weeks before plants finally began to emerge. Some fields experienced root diseases as a result. When crops finally began to grow and develop, a cool spell in July delayed their maturity.

Despite everything, the 2013 soybean crop weathered the adverse conditions fairly well. At least that’s how it appeared in late September when the harvest was finally in full swing. But getting there had been a major challenge.

“It was a slow, painful crop to watch grow,” said Pat Toner, senior sales agronomist with Emerge Ag Solutions, an agri-retailer in Eston, Saskatchewan.

Dennis Lange, a Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives farm production adviser, said the 2013 growing season was practically the opposite of 2012. Last year, planting occurred early and most growers had their cereals and canola in the ground well before starting their soybeans.

Soybean seeding in southern Manitoba became general around May 10 and crops developed well, despite some frost on May 28. Hot dry weather arrived in mid-July and lasted through the summer, causing beans to mature early.

That was in 2012. This year was different.

Lange said some places still had snow banks in late April. When seeding finally got going, growers were planting everything all at once. Soybeans need warm soil to germinate and farmers sometimes

had to delay planting them until conditions improved. Fields seeded on May 15 took up to three weeks to emerge, while fields seeded May 25 took two weeks.

Ample precipitation, including a late May downpour in southern regions of the province, helped bring crops along.

Surprisingly, growers reported relatively little drown-out because soybeans are able to tolerate wet conditions. Heat units during the growing season were generally adequate to develop soybean crops. But, unlike 2012, this year did not provide a hot, dry summer, thus delaying maturity, said Lange.

“Typically, when beans don’t get moisture, they mature earlier. When you get more moisture, they take longer to mature.”

Moisture in early August was adequate to set seed and fill the pods. But soybeans are a late-maturing crop and harvesting didn’t become general until the last week in September, slightly later than normal.

“Growers have to realize they are growing a long-season crop,” said Lange. You’re not harvesting in early September but mid to late September. That really showed up this year, especially for growers in areas that are limited on heat units.”

Conditions were similar in Saskatchewan, where beans were slow to develop. Toner said soybeans in his region were only three to four inches tall on June 21. He had visions of them flowering but not growing more than six to eight inches high. But soybeans are persistent plants and they just kept coming.

“They grew, they put out flowers, they grew some more and put out more flowers,” said Toner. “The growth habit of the plant was something to behold – the way it continued to grow, flower, and set seed.”

Soybeans continue to be the fastest expanding crop on the Prairies, topping one million seeded acres in Manitoba this year, according to provincial crop insurance figures. From a small corner in the Red River Valley, soybean acreage has expanded throughout the province and into Saskatchewan. That includes areas where the crop wouldn’t even have been considered a few years back. Now, early maturing varieties requiring fewer heat units have made the impossible possible.

But while crop specialists appreciate soybeans’ rapid expansion into nontraditional areas, they also urge caution.

After all, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are not Iowa. Growing conditions are different here and some regions remain at the outer edge for soybean production.

“I think we’ve established they are a good crop to grow in our traditional growing regions. But we haven’t established yet in northwestern Manitoba,” said Kristen Podolsky, Manitoba Pulse Growers Association’s new production specialist.

“Soybeans are a heat-loving crop. Whether they can compete with the cool season crops that we know can grow well here is the question we’ll be asking ourselves in the next few years. We’re not sure what the new normal is.”

Weather analysts say climate change could expand soybean-growing areas as warmer weather creeps further northward. But growing season weather on the Prairies is highly variable and it wouldn’t take much to knock soybeans for a loop.

Lange recalls 2004 when summer took a holiday and cold, wet weather resulted in a

17

soybean crop averaging just eight bushels an acre. The kicker came on August 20 in the form of a killing frost. Some growers never harvested a single bean that year.

Since then, soybean growers have dodged the bullet and acreage has increased for six straight years in Manitoba. But what if another weather disaster like 2004 comes along? Even if it doesn’t, how can growers

guard against challenges to maturity, especially in non-traditional areas?

Lange urges growers to pay close attention to variety selection and make sure that what they’re growing is suited to their particular region. Heat units aren’t the only factor to consider in deciding which variety to plant.

“Look at days to maturity when you’re

Soybean genetics have come a long way in the last few years and varieties with heat units as low as 2300 are now being grown as far afield as western Saskatchewan.

selecting lines to plant. Remember the number of days will vary, depending on the amount of moisture. Beans mature later when there’s more moisture, as happened this year,” Lange said.

“The risk is how long they’ll take to mature.

The reward is the yield.”

Soybean genetics have come a long way in the last few years and varieties with heat units as low as 2300 are now being grown as far afield as western Saskatchewan. Toner’s company provided soybean seed for the first time this year. Participating growers planted around 80 acres each, mostly as an experiment. But early signs are encouraging and acreage may expand if the crop proves successful.

“We’ll see how it goes. To this point, it looks like we can grow them,” said Toner.

“As long as plant breeding continues to reduce the necessary heat units, we’re going to go.”

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Is Earlier Really Better?Â

By John Dietz

Growers in Manitoba are growing soybeans with fewer heat units than would be required for their area as a risk management tool. Why, and is it effective?

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L

ight frost on September 15, 2013 didn’t matter much for the stubble beside it, but a very green soybean field in west-central Manitoba was in trouble. Meanwhile, another field less than five miles away was just fine in its fall colours. Those pods were dry.

Seed grower says

Without going into details, that could be a perfect illustration of the issues in selecting and planting the long-season pulse crop on the southern Prairies – especially in the shorter-season regions outside the Red River Valley.

“Soybeans have taken a fairly prominent position in our seed business,” Friesen says.

Manitoba growers seeded a record million acres of soybeans in 2013. Most were planted from May 15 to 30 – within the recommended seeding dates but later than in 2012.

Probably, the green field in question was one of those. It could have been seeded late.

More importantly, that particular variety just didn’t have the days it needed to reach the mature R8 drydown stage before that “normal” mid-September frost arrived.

Seed grower Rick Friesen and agronomist Dennis Lange stress two things at every chance they get when talking to experienced and new soybean growers: Respect the heat units/days to maturity, and spread your risk.

Friesen has a private industry, stakeholder viewpoint on soybeans. He is the owner of Friesen Seeds Ltd., Rosenort, and a shareholder in seed company, NorthStar Genetics.

From the start, season length has been an issue. The August 24, 2004 frost almost wiped out the fledgling crop; other early September frosts have damaged fields, sometimes sharply.

But varieties and choices are better than they were a decade ago. The earliestmaturing lines in those days needed at least 2400 Corn Heat Units (CHUs), and there were very few of these lines. Today growers can find a wide selection of varieties in the 2350 to 2400 CHU range and some with even lower heat unit needs.

“We keep getting earlier and earlier maturing soybeans. The earliest variety now would be 2300 heat units,” Friesen says.

Friesen and Lange stress that heat units, days to maturity, and yield potential are closely connected in soybeans. A benefit

of higher yield potential comes with longer seasons and higher heat units.

Every growing area now is mapped for CHUs to expect 123 days between May 15 and September 15. The reality will be different, but treat that line like a speed limit.

It’s tempting to go a little over the speed limit or, in the case of soybeans, a little over the rating for your production area in the hope of a long frost-free September and more highvalue bushels in the bins.

However, Friesen adds, it’s really risky. He advises, only select seed that is within the speed limit for your acres. Use that rating as the top end and split the acres among one or two varieties with even lower heat requirements.

He says, “The sales rep would tell the farmer, try some higher yielding, later maturing ones but don’t plant your whole farm to that variety. I would advise, it depends on how risky the farmer wants to be.”

Highway 14 south of Morris is along one of the dividing lines in the Red River Valley. It’s safe to try a 2500 CHU line on the south side of that highway; on the north, anything more than 2450 CHU is risky.

21

Never exceed the CHU limit for your production area.

Use that as the upper limit, then choose three varieties with different days to maturity for a selection of short, midrange, and long-season soybeans.

“In the Morris area - where normally it would be safe to grow at 2450 or sometimes even at 2500 heat units - you can try that but for sure spread your risk. Do maybe half or a third of your soybean acres with a 2500 heat unit line. Most years you are going to be good, but if you do have an early frost, then your early maturing beans may get hit but they may not get hit as severely. It’s just a safeguard,” Friesen says.

“Grow beans that can mature, Number One. Number Two, if you can get maximum yield out of an early maturing soybean, very good. Number Three, if you can grow a higher-yielding, later-maturing bean, try it but for sure count the costs and choose the risk. What’s the use of growing beans if the frost is going to take them anyway,” he asks.

As the bean attraction spreads westward, even into Saskatchewan, it’s especially important for new growers to grow a bean that can mature. If the crop fails on September 15 because it needed another week, that experience can turn the grower off and do more damage than good.

Advisor says Manitoba Agriculture farmer production advisor and acting pulse specialist, Dennis Lange, has been involved with the rapidly expanding provincial soybean industry – in the public and private sectors – for most of the short history.

22

He also advises growers to spread the risk with soybeans. Never exceed the CHU limit for your production area. Use that as the upper limit, then choose three varieties with different days to maturity for a selection of short, mid-range, and long-season soybeans.

“If you put all your eggs in one basket and only grow the earliest possible varieties you can get, you’ll probably give up some yield potential. If you put all your eggs in the opposite basket and grow only long-season varieties, at the upper end, you put yourself at greater risk when it comes to fall frost and possibly reduced yield,” Lange says.

“If you get an early frost and your variety isn’t mature, depending on the growth stage, you might lose yield, or you might lose quality, or both,” he says.

Growers in the cooler northern and western areas – where soybeans are just becoming established – may have fewer choices, but stay within the upper limit of your range and go a little earlier with some, if possible.

MAFRI publishes soybean trial data in the Seed Manitoba guide. It compares soybean variety performance at four core site locations where all soybean lines are tested as well as three other short-season sites and two long-season sites.

“The first thing is, look at the varieties that have been tested in your region. Don’t choose something that’s too long for your region,” Lange says.

For those who are tempted by looking at performance across the CHU lines, a nasty surprise can await, he warns.

If you introduce a long-season variety into a short-season growing region, the yield potential could decrease because the longseason variety requires more heat units to reach its maximum yield potential.

In the 2012 season, for example, the MPGA trial check variety Portage matured at 117 days at Carman but needed 130 days to mature up north, at Arborg. As well, the yield of the check variety at Arborg was less than the early-season lines recommended for Arborg area conditions.

Other thoughts Along with heat units, consider the days to maturity and the planting date when selecting the 2014 planting list.

Lange and Friesen suggest that it’s wise to use the days to maturity for the check variety in your region as a starting point. A day or two of difference in maturity for a better yielding variety with the same heat units might be a good choice.

Remember that the days-to-maturity rating represents the days required, after planting, for soybeans to reach the 95 percent brown pod stage. Year to year that can vary due to temperature and moisture conditions through the growing season. After plants reach 95 percent brown pod, normally the field is ready to harvest in seven to 10 days.

Average accumulation of CHU from May 15 to 25 percent risk of first fall frost

CHU

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Who’s the New Up and Comer?

By Craig Manness Craig Manness, President of Impact Group, shares his thoughts on the Monsanto corn announcement and what he thinks it will mean for western Canadian agriculture.

W

hen Monsanto announced their intention to invest $100 million into corn seed research in Western Canada over the next 10 years, they also stated that there could be eight million acres of corn grown in the Canadian Prairies by 2025. That’s 12 years from now. For someone who has been in this industry for decades, as a farmer, a marketer, and now a business coach, I am absolutely thrilled with what this announcement can mean to our industry and how much buzz this will create in the next decade.

I farmed with my brothers a couple of decades ago and we grew corn in the Red River Valley.

We had mixed results. At that time there were not many suitable varieties, there were fewer weed control options, and the last year we grew it, we had a frost on August 29, so it froze. We had to dry every bushel, we needed a planter and a corn header for the combine, and we were usually harvesting in November.

At that time, from a financial perspective it was a simple decision for us to stop growing corn, but emotionally it was tough. Why? Because growing corn was fun! There is nothing like taking the combine into a nice crop of corn and watching those beautiful yellow kernels filling the auger, moving into the grain tank, and then into the truck. The bushels poured out (except for the frost year) and it made harvest an even better time than usual.

But growing corn today is a much more logical decision than it was for us back then. Good, early varieties are already here. I watched a presentation by Tim Welbanks of Maizex Seeds Inc, a Canadian corn company who supplies varieties to Western Canada and was amazed (pardon the pun) at how far the varieties have

Growing corn today is a much more logical decision than it was for us back then.

25

disease issues top of mind for every wheat breeder the variety options in the next five to seven years will be very enticing to wheat growers. HRS wheat specifically will go down the most, perhaps down seven million acres by 2025, half of what it is today.

It may become a regional crop grown for specific requirements and market access, but higher yielding general purpose wheat varieties are where the breeding is going. Durum wheat is a staple crop of Saskatchewan and should still be by 2025, but still may be down a million acres. One wheat in particular that will see a jump in acres is winter wheat. The yield, quality, agronomics, and ROI are all steadily improving and along with reducing farmer stress and pressure in spring seeding and harvest, we should see winter wheat acres triple in the next 10 years. Overall wheat acres will be down four to six million acres.

come in heat units, pest resistance, and quality. The weed control is easy, the equipment is available, and prices are good, making the industry bullish on corn in Western Canada.

The big question the industry faces, however, is if there are 40 million acres of crop and eight million acres of corn in 2025, what other crops will be most affected?

Here’s my opinion: •

•

Soybean acres will continue to grow, and I think they are headed to five million acres by 2025, from about one million this year. Soybeans are a world crop which means it will always be easy to sell, hedge, and financially manage and once farmers get comfortable growing this crop it will become a standard part of rotations. Many Manitoba farmers have had soybeans in a one third rotation for several years.

The varieties keep coming and farmers like nitrogen fixating crops for many reasons. Soybeans are in Canada to stay and five million acres is a conservative estimate.

Spring wheat acres will go down, but not by as much as people thought.

With the market opening up, and

•

Canola acres will go down. The days of pushing rotations to get more shots at this high return cash crop are coming to an end. Canola has disappointed too many farmers in too many years in the past decade. When I was growing canola in the eighties, it was predicted

The big question the industry faces, however, is if there are 40 million acres of crop and eight million acres of corn in 2025, what other crops will be most affected?

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that average yields in the next millennium would be in the 50 to 60 bushel range because, after all, we budgeted for 35 to 40 bushels/acre and on occasion got yields over 50. And although yields have gone up - the average yield for canola in the west in 2011 was 33.2 bushels per acre - the notion that canola would become and sustain as a 20 million acre crop just isn’t going to happen, and in fact, I think it will level off and stay at 12 to 14 million acres.

It will still be a valuable and important crop but perhaps not grown as much in some marginal areas as it is now.

•

Pulse acres will be down. Annually, pulse crops run between five to seven million acres, largely driven by peas and lentils (soybeans are not a pulse crop, they are an oilseed). As soybean acres grow, particularly in Saskatchewan, pulse acres will drop, probably down two million by 2025.

Changes are coming and so much can happen in 12 years but it is interesting to think about all the implications these changes invite.

And as someone who has been in agriculture all my life, it’s exciting to imagine all the possibilities the next generation of farmers and those who serve farmers will face.

What a great time it is to be in agriculture. If I was only 30 years younger…

The Western Soybean Surge From the Eastern Perspective Gina Borhot

When it comes to east versus west there are many differences among these parts of Canada. From political to cultural and even linguistic, some eastern provinces are quite unlike those of the west. But when it comes to agriculture, the west has flourished in producing an ancient eastern crop.

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S

ince World War II soybeans have been recognized as a significant crop in Canada, noted for the ability to provide not only a food source, but also a variety of industrial products including oil.

Istvan Rajcan, Professor of Soybean Breeding and Genetics at the University of Guelph Ontario explains that soybean production began in Hamilton, Ontario in the 1880s, but there was no serious production until the 1940s.

For several years the growth of soybeans in Canada was confined to the eastern provinces, especially Ontario, favoured for long and warm growing seasons.

It wasn’t until recently that growers began having success planting soybeans in the western provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which is now a continuously thriving crop in the region.

Rajcan says it took several decades for soybeans to begin booming in the west.

“In 1998 there was a recorded 5,000 acres in Manitoba and 20,000 the following year,” he says. “Today there are over one million acres in Manitoba and about 170,000 in Saskatchewan.”

Manager and CFO at South West Ag Partners Inc. This year Ontario growers saw a 1.5 percent decrease from 2.65 million acres in 2012.

“We are a fairly mature market, there isn’t a lot of new growth like they are experiencing in Western Canada where the growth is quite substantial,” Hazzard says.

“Manitoba has grown substantially, and we hear there are varieties in Saskatchewan as well,” he adds.

Known for cooler and more temperate growing seasons than out east, it’s hard to believe that soybean growth continues to surge in the west.

According to Brady Elliot, Food Grain Merchant at South West Ag Partners Inc., the prosperity of soybeans in the west has to do with agronomics.

“Soybeans can handle wet feet better than some of the traditional crops that are grown here,” he says.

“With some of the wet springs they experience in Manitoba they’re finding that soybeans perform relatively well in adverse conditions, compared to other crops.”

Rajcan credits this growth to soybean breeding efforts in developing soybean varieties fit for shorter growing seasons and harsher climates.

From his perspective, Elliot says that he sees the surge of soybeans in the west being able to easily meet the demand China has for soybeans.

Today it’s suggested by Stats Canada that at a national level soybean growing area rose 10.5 percent from last year to a record 4.6 million acres in 2013. This boost is primarily the outcome of a larger soybean area in Manitoba where farmers report seeding 1.1 million acres, marking the sixth consecutive increase in soybean acres in the province.

“We see the export of whole soybeans to China, who seem to have an insatiable appetite for oilseed and soybeans specifically, and with production in the west we can potentially just rail that off to Vancouver, throw it on a boat and chug it across to China, and take out some of their demand,” he says.

In the east, Quebec also saw a rise of 21,000 acres of soybean area, totaling 712,900 acres, over 200,000 acres less than Manitoba.

In Ontario, farmers saw a slight decrease, but still took the lead with a reported 2.6 million acres.

“There isn’t a lot of growth in acreage in Ontario,” says Paul Hazzard, General

Out east the soybean market exports most of their beans out to the northern European region.

“We don’t service China very heavily out of Ontario,” Hazzard says.

He adds that the logical product for the west seems to be towards meeting the Chinese demand.

“I can’t imagine that Ontario or Quebec

growers would feel threatened,” Hazzard adds about the major growth of soybeans in the west.

“They are serving two different markets, so there isn’t much competition today.”

He explains that in Ontario their key processors in Windsor and Hamilton have oil-crushing plants and on a net basis Ontario soybean export along with growth in production are as they always have been.

“I don’t see growth in the west affecting the Ontario situation because we are already in an export position,” Hazzard says.

Rajcan adds, from speaking to growers and seed companies his sense is that it’s a pretty friendly environment.

“There’s enough room for all of us. Our bigger competitor is the United States because they grow millions and millions more acres than either Western Canada or Ontario could ever dream of,” he says.

For now it appears as though the east and west are allies in the production and exportation of soybeans.

While the west can cater to the soaring China demand, the east continues business as usual.

“Will there ever be a position where the east and west compete?” asks Hazzard. “Maybe, but I don’t see that in the horizon. We are dealing with commodities and you never know what could happen.”

Coming from the eastern perspective overall—it’s positive vibes about the western soybean surge.

“I think it provides retailers the opportunity to sell more soybean seed and diversify, and it allows soybean growers in the east and west to diversify. As genetics continue to improve we will likely see the growth of soybeans in Western Canada continue,” Hazzard says.

“They have less heat units than we have here in Ontario—the soybeans need heat and the window out there is shorter than ours and as genetics improve and there are genetics available to grow in a shorter season the opportunity will continue to grow, for sure.”

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Foster’s Focus

T

A column by Sarah Foster

Earth Matters

his year’s soybean harvest is in the bin and next year’s cropping plans are on the horizon. As you plan for spring 2014 consider your crop rotation carefully.

Soybeans are an excellent choice from an agronomic and economical standpoint as the financial returns are significant. And as we know, Canada is embarking on new territory with the explosion of soybean acres across the Prairies. We need to be proactive and adopt some good practices already researched and well established for soybean rotations.

Bruce Brolley a pulse specialist has often stated the honeymoon period is over, meaning that we are at the tipping point where the value of the parameter in which the set of equilibria abruptly change. With management we can stay ahead.

Let’s discuss your goals when planting for next year, and let’s make sure we incorporate this special crop into your rotations accordingly.

As the rotations become tighter it is important to research your best management practices. Environment plays a huge role in stand establishment and overall crop development, so being prepared ahead of time and armed with the best tools possible will be the key.

Seed health is often overlooked for a number of reasons primarily because we think of purity (physical purity which includes weeds and other impurities) and germination as the benchmarks for quality.

Seed health is paramount as soybean acres increase and are moving into other provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta. It is also important to remember that an experienced seed-testing lab knowledgeable in the area of plant pathology will be very useful as we move in this direction.

Select high quality treated seed that is sound (without cracks), free from pathogens and choose a variety that is specific to your needs.

Soybeans are susceptible to several major soil-borne pathogens and according to Dennis Lange a pulse crop specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives, we should be on the look out for Pythium, Fusarium, Rhizoctonia, Phytophthora, and Sclerotinia. The incidence level of these pathogens has been increasing steadily since 2007 and is set to become an issue as we incorporate soybeans. Managing and planning are now really important and there are lots of experts in this area who can assist with planning and crop rotation.

Pythium and Phytophthora are important causal agents for damping off, which can survive in the absence of soybeans by growing on plant residue in the soil.

The oospores can exist readily in fields with reduced tillage. The disease causes stand reduction and the symptoms present themselves in two ways: pre-emergence and post-emergence infection.

The pre-emergence damping off occurs before emergence where fungi attack the

seed. Seeds affected before germination become soft and rotted because pathogen infected soil particles have adhered to the seed or have impregnated the seed through broken or damaged tissue. Infection occurring after germination results in poor seedling emergence. Seedlings can fail to emerge above the soil and will have poor discoloured roots.

Post-emergence is characterized by wilting: the plants will have a grey-green colour before they turn brown. Patches of these plants will be found in damp low areas and can be pulled easily from the ground.

Early planting into no-till fields increases the risk of damping off, and large amounts of plant residue reduces soil temperature and increases soil moisture, so it is very important to use high quality seed and delay planting until the soil warms up.

Rotating with corn is not recommended as oospores can attack corn as well as soybeans. Seed treatments can also assist in reducing these pathogens.

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Rhizoctonia is caused by Rhizoctonia soloni and can be found in most soils that have a long history of soybean production and close rotations. Rhizoctonia survives as sclerotia, which is a persistent soil pathogen that causes pre-emergence and postemergence infection similar in behaviour to Pythium and Phytophthora. Rhizoctonia affect nodulation, which is an important part of the seedling establishment, as well as causing as much as 50 percent yield

This microscopic photo is Fusarium Graminearum on wheat

losses in the U.S. Use effective seed-applied fungicides and follow similar rotation for Pythium and Phytophthora.

Sclerotinia stem rot, also known as white mould, causes significant damage in infected fields, this is a complicated pathogen because it persists in the soil for years and has a wide range of host plants such as alfalfa, sunflower, and canola.

Sclerotia are similar in size to soybeans and end up in the bin when harvested. The fruiting bodies can also be dispersed and transported via the combine to other fields.

Avoid harvesting an infected field before a healthy field and always clean the combine before moving on to the next field. Cool, wet conditions during the flowering period favour the disease as well as a heavy canopy. The disease becomes apparent 32

when plants wilt and die in July and August.

Heavily infected plants may not produce seed, reducing yield.

Use resistant varieties and use wider row spacing to increase airflow, warm and dry the soil surfaces, till infected fields, and consider fungicide application.

Fusarium graminearum typically a pathogen of wheat and corn causes seed decay and damping off, and it is usually found in combination with Rhizoctonia, Phytophthora, and Phythium.

This saprophytic fungus, which is the same strain as FHB, colonizes on the stems and seeds of soybeans. The potential build up of strains that affect both corn, wheat, and soybeans reduces the rotation options because the spores are seed and soil borne.

Fusarium Graminearum is a very important mycotoxigenic specie, which can unfortunately cause diverse diseases on a number of crops.

Fusarium graminearum is generally found in soil with unbalanced fertility where nitrogen and potassium are in short supply, hail damage, drought, herbicide injury, and foliar diseases are prevalent.

Effective practices when controlling this devastating disease are the use of seed treatments to prevent seed and root rot.

Also reducing soil compaction, increasing drainage, and improving root growth will help with the infection.

My next article will focus on soybean cyst nematode and other pests known to be troublesome in other areas.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions about your seed health or visit our website at www.2020seedlabs.ca for more information.