Buy.Sell.Stay. February 2016 Market Report South County Gilroy, Hollister, Morgan Hill
2016 Intero Real Estate Services Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate and a wholly owned subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc. All rights reserved. Data provided by Trendgraphix February 2016.. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended as a solicitation if you are listed with another broker.
Executive Insights Home Sales Trend Upward The health of financial markets and a lack of inventory continue to be the biggest drivers of the Bay Area housing market. And with the stock market starting off the year strong, we’re also feeling a strong housing market here, with the expected seasonal slowing that often comes with the beginning of the year. “The tempo of the Bay Area housing market is tied very closely to the financial markets,” said Tom Tognoli, President and CEO of Intero Real Estate. “So much of the Bay Area’s wealth is tied up in stock options and stock purchase plans. As the financial markets go, people’s attitudes and pocket books tend to follow.” Many have been talking about the high-end of the housing market cooling off, which we’ve seen a bit. But that doesn’t mean no one’s in the market for high-end luxury homes. “Just last week, we sold a home in Atherton for over $8.5 million that was on the market for less than a week.” So it’s not a totally chilled market by any means. It’s still very much a seller’s market in the Bay Area. And while a lack of inventory continues to be a major challenge for buyers that usually means a quicker sale at a great price for sellers, those who are selling to move up are also finding it frustrating. The good news is the number of active listings increased at the state level for the first time in five months in January, and the Bay Area was part of the trend with an 8% increase in homes for sale compared to the previous month. “The fundamentals underlying the demand for housing fueled a healthy start to 2016,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. But she, along with other economists, continues to watch overall economic trends such as volatility in the equity market, that can potentially lead buyers and sellers to hold back and take a “wait-and-see” approach. So the market is starting strong, but with lack of homes and the uncertainty of an election year, we could see some slower growth. We like to watch the housing market numbers month to month because we always see noticeable changes that help our agents assess pricing and bidding strategies. Let’s take a look at the important numbers broken down into categories that are easy to understand. This will help you get clear on what’s happening in your market that can impact your home sale or purchase.
Market Highlights South County
Total Homes for Sale
192
Luxury Homes for Sale*
7
*Homes for sale above $3 million.
Total Homes Sold
Average Days on Market
Average List Price
Average Sold Price
92
$1,178,000
41
$674,000
Inventory South County
Total Number Of Homes:
For Sale
Sold
176
177
92
107
122
135
128
92
104
119
166
15-Jun
192
224
253
266
212 157
212 154
163
187
187
171
15-May
79
95
100
114
150
173
200
205
246
250
258
300
50
0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
Property Sales (Sold) February property sales were 92, down 3.2% from 95 in February of 2015 and 14% lower than the 107 sales last month.
Inventory By The Numbers Current Inventory (For Sale) Versus last year, the total number of homes available this month is higher by 5 units of 2.7%. This year’s bigger inventory means that buyers who waited to buy may have bigger selection to choose from. The number of current inventory is up 9.1% compared to the previous month. Property Under Contract (Pended) There was an increase of 19.1% in the pended properties in February, with 112 properties versus 94 last month. This month’s pended property sales were 3.4% lower than at this time last year.
Home Price Range
Homes For Sale
Year Over Year % Difference
< $500K
27
-29%
$500K $1M
108
20%
$1M - $3M
50
-6%
$3M - $5M
3
-25%
$5M - $10M
2
0%
$10M +
2
N/A
Pricing South County
Average Prices in $,000:
For Sale Price
Sold Price
1400 $1,141 $1,121 $1,125
1200
1000
$980
$1,037 $1,033
$1,097 $1,021
$1,090 $1,076 $1,054 $1,073
$1,127 $1,144
$1,178
800
600
$684
$618
$627
$648
$699
$677
$724
$762
$711
$720
$731
$718
$732
$717
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
$674
400
200
0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
16-Feb
The Average For Sale Price is Appreciating The Average For Sale Price in February was $1,178,000, up 14% from $1,033,000 in February of 2015 and up 3% from $1,144,000 last month.
Pricing By The Numbers The Average Sold Price is Depreciating The Average Sold Price in February was $674,000, up 7.5% from $627,000 in February of 2015 and down 6% from $717,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral The Median Sold Price in February was $647,000, up 10.6% from $585,000 in February of 2015 and down 0.5% from $650,000 last month.
Average Price Per Square Foot.
$318
-2.8% Month over Month
On The Market South County
Average Days On Market 70
63
63
60 49
50
49
38
40
49
47
33
41
41
40
36 32
30
29
30
15-Aug
15-Sep
20 10 0 14-Dec
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for February 2016 was 41, down 16.3% from 49 days last month and down 16.3% from 49 days in February of last year.
DOM By The Numbers Home Price Range
Days on Market
Year Over Year % Difference
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
< $500K
38
6%
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 99% is up 2.1% % from last month and up from 2.1% % in February of last year.
$500K $1M
41
-18%
$1M - $3M
45
-46%
$3M - $5M
0
NA
$5M - $10M
0
NA
$10M +
0
NA