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It is racing that influences the bloodstock industry
We may think that bloodstock sale trends are caused by the whims of purchasers and generated by gossip in the sales bar, but the sale ring “fashions” are actually created by race programming, argues Jocelyn de Moubray
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES in the race programme influences the choices of those buying or breeding to race and, sooner rather than later, as a consequence those breeding horses commercially will change their production plans.
Those who devise the racing programme in Europe’s three major racing countries, Britain, Ireland and France, are trying to achieve a balance within broadly similar constraints –that is to maintain or, if possible grow, betting turnover, while maintaining opportunities for different types of horses and the traditional racing structure.
The different administrative organisations and financial positions have led to major differences in the racing programmes in Britain, France, and Ireland, while there are still some strong similarities as well.
The programmes have diverged this century as the number of Flat races run in Britain and Ireland has expanded far more quickly than in France. Over the last 25 years the number of Flat races run in Britain has increased by around 50 per cent, by 100 per cent in Ireland, and only 13 per cent in France.
The major similarity between the three countries is the importance of three-year-old racing, which makes up 34 per cent of all races in Britain and France, and 32 per cent in Ireland.
All the figures given are for the year 2022, when there was a total of 12,701 Flat races in the three countries of which 4,281 (34 per cent) were restricted to three-year-olds only.
And, of this 34 per cent, the races include many of the most prestigious and valuable races too. Of the 650 Group and Listed races run in Britain, Ireland and France in 2022, 40 per cent were for three-year-olds alone.
It clearly means that the success or failure of a stallion’s three-year-olds will, in the long run, determine his fee and commercial appeal.
The first major divergence between the three countries is the proportion of races restricted to two-year-olds.
In Britain and Ireland, 18 per cent of all races are for two-year-olds, and 52 per cent and 50 per cent respectively are for either two or three-year-olds.
Two-year-old racing is not as important in France where the figure is only 12 per cent, and so only 46 per cent of all races are for either juveniles or three-year-olds.
Of the nearly 2,000 European juvenile races run every year some 70 per cent are in Britain or Ireland, and juvenile races weigh heavier still for Group and Listed races – in Britain they make up 21 per cent of the total, 22 per cent in Ireland and 16 per cent in France.
In Britain and Ireland, the proportion of these two-year-old races run over less than a mile is at 82 per cent and 78 per cent, much higher than in France where only 57 per cent are run over less than a mile.
The same is true for threeyear-old races – the proportion of races run over shorter distances is higher in Britain and Ireland than in France.
In Britain and Ireland, three-year-old races run over a mile or less is 63 per cent and 57 per cent, in France it is only 36 per cent.
In Britain and Ireland there are around 1,200 races a year for threeyear-olds at a mile or less, and only 530 in France.
In total, there are 4,065 races for three-yearolds alone, of which 782 (19 per cent), are run over 1m4f or further, and 420 of these are in France.
In Britain and Ireland there are only 362 races for threeyear-olds over 1m4f or more. The differences are less
marked when it comes to Group and Listed races, but France offers more opportunities for middledistance horses in its Pattern races, too. Pattern races for two and
three-year-olds in Britain and Ireland are made up of 69 per cent run over a mile or less and 85 per cent over 1m2f or less, in France the figures are 55 per cent and 76 per cent.
Surfaces and handicaps
The two other major differences concern different surfaces and the role of handicaps and, in both respects, Britain is on a quite different trend to either Ireland or France.
France has the most All-Weather tracks, and they are spread all over the country from Pau to Pornichet to Chantilly and Marseilles, whereas Ireland has only Dundalk.
However, it is Britain which has the highest proportion of races on the AllWeather – 41 per cent compared with 23 per cent in France and 24 per cent in Ireland.
British racing is dominated by handicaps which make up 70 per cent of all Flat races, in Ireland it is only 53 per cent, whereas in France the leading trainers can if they wish ignore the sector completely as only 33 per cent of its races are handicaps.
It is not surprising that there is a demand for different types of stallions or racing stock in Britain and Ireland than in France.
The racing programme in Britain and Ireland is focused on young, fast horses and, for all but the best, they are likely to race in handicaps with a high proportion on the All-Weather.
It is a strange anomaly that only six per cent of all Pattern races are run on the All-Weather, and this is surely something which will change in the coming years.
In France, there is less of a focus on two-year-olds and more opportunities for middle-distance horses, particularly those horses who could be at their best from a mile to around 1m2f.
Average-level horses in France compete in claimers (12 per cent of all races) or conditions races (46 per cent).
If the French system gives more opportunities to middledistance and late-developing horses than either Britain or Ireland, Germany is, of course, in a different world all together.
In terms of number of races and births, which register only just above and just below 1,000 these days, Germany is now a minor racing country.
However, it has maintained its traditional racing structure and, as a result, the aim of nearly every mating in the country is to produce horses capable of competing over further than 1m2f at three and older.
In Germany, only 10 per cent of its black-type races are for two-year-olds and, of those for three-year-olds and upwards, only 33 per cent are run over a mile or less with 43 per cent run over further than 1m2f.
So what does this mean?
The choices made by stallion owners, yearling buyers and sales companies are often said to be the result of fashion or even whim and prejudice.
But in fact they are, overall, a logical response to the programme of races in the countries concerned.
The need to maintain the number of runners per race for the sake of betting turnover leads race planners to frame races with respect to the current horse population, which serves to accentuate existing trends.
If there are fewer opportunities for middledistance horses, breeders will produce fewer of them, and so the races for them will soon attract fewer runners.
The only way to reverse these trends is to decide to frame the races to encourage production, even if there are years with a shortage of participants until this new production arrives.
A further constraint for race planners needs to be the difference between the current horse population and that which it aims for in the longer term, five years or so in the future.
In Britain, if plans are not made and pro-actively acted upon, the alternative is a future in which the vast majority of races are run over a mile or less for two and three-year-olds.
These races might not be the best possible betting medium, nor the best incentive for the breeding of horses capable of competing in the best international races.
