Changes are wrong

THE EUROPEAN PATTERN RACE COMMITTEE is slowly but surely destroying what used to be known as the European Classic programme.

The committee believes, according to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities whose representatives sit upon it, that its decisions bring “universally recognised benefits”, while at the same time remaining “adaptable and responsive to changes”.

However, by applying subjective and arbitrary rules across the whole of the European Pattern, the Committee has failed to reflect changes in the breeding industry and has worked to undermine the programme for middle-distance three-year-olds by systematically downgrading what used to be vital parts of the selection of the best middle-distance horses in each European country.

The Derrinstown Derby Trial, the Dee Stakes, the Prix Noailles, as well as a whole selection of French provincial and Scandinavian Derby’s, are amongst the races that have lost status in recent years, while in its most recent announcements the committee has put races such as the Prix Greffuhle, the Prix Hocquart, the Prix Malleret, the Deutches Derby, the Diana Trial and Derby Italiano under threat of downgrades.

There are two major problems with the way the European Pattern Committee takes it decisions.

They are based upon a three-year average of the ratings of the first four horses in any particular Pattern race. This simple, but flawed equation, does not reflect the way horses are placed to run and, more importantly,

Broome winning last year’s Group 3 Derrinstown Derby Trial. The race was downgraded to a Group 3 in 2014, the same year the Dee Stakes was reduced from a Group 3 to a Listed race. They, and other such races, are important middle-distance selection races in the European Pattern a simple average will always under-rate middle-distance races for three-year-olds.

Three-year-olds were traditionally tested over middledistances in order to select the excellent horses from the good ones.

Few horses are able to run over 1m2f or 1m4f before the middle of their three-year-old season, which is why these races were used for selection and why there is more often than not a large margin between the winner and the fourth.

A straight average will never reflect this and is likely to give a higher rating to races run over shorter distances. In Pattern races prize-money is usually distributed along the lines of 60 per cent to winner, 25 per cent to the second, 10 per cent to the third and five per cent to the fourth. It would be logical to judge middle-distance races for three-year-olds by a rating calculated using similar ratios for the first four in any Pattern race.

These races were designed to select, and if they are won by top horses they are fulfilling their role; even if those who finish third or fourth turn out not to be top class.

This flaw in the Pattern Committee’s reasoning has been there since it decided upon its rules in the early 1990s, however, recent changes in the breeding world make a revaluation of its criteria even more urgent than before.

The production of thoroughbreds in Europe is focused on an ever-smaller number of popular sires.

In 1992, the year the European Pattern Committee was established, the major stallions Sadler’s Wells and Danehill were the only two sires with more than 20 yearlings offered for sale in Europe.

By 2019 there were 38 who had more than 50 yearlings offered for sale and 12 with more than 75. In 1992 there were nine stallions with ten or more progeny in the Tattersalls select yearling sale and their progeny made up 20 per cent of the catalogue.

In 2019 there were 18 and their progeny made up 70 per cent of the catalogue.

The best mares are, these days, sent to an ever-smaller number of popular stallions creating a homogeneity which was not there 40 years ago.

As a result of these changes the horse population is very different from how it was at the beginning of the European Pattern, and once again these changes have a particularly negative effect on middle-distance races for three-year-olds.

These races have come to be dominated by the progeny of Europe’s top four sires – Galileo, Dubawi, Sea The Stars and Frankel – all of whom stand at a fee between €150,000 and €400,000, and who covered around 650 mares between them in 2019.

THROUGH 2017-2019 only 47 three-year-olds achieved a rating of 115 or higher over 1m4f, and, of these, 58 per cent were by one of the four super sires, 55 per cent belonged to either Coolmore or Godolphin and 90 per cent were trained in Britain and Ireland.

In the circumstances it is no wonder that Pattern races for middle-distance three-year-olds struggle to attract competitive fields and to fulfill the Pattern Committee’s stipulations.

Having a simple rule to apply does, without any doubt at all, make decisions easier, but it is no guarantee of making correct ones.

After all whole economies and international financial systems have been brought down because decision-makers were unable or unwilling to question the premises with which they had been used to working. The European Pattern Committee needs to change the way it judges Group races and in particular those for three-year-olds over middle-distances.

If the Commmittee does not show the ability to adapt and be responsive it will be too late to save the Classic selection programme in Germany, France, Italy, and very soon Britain and Ireland, too.

There are other changes which could be made to protect the selection of the best middle-distance threeyear-olds in Europe.

It seems absurd, for instance, to run three of the most important Group 1s for three-year-olds over 1m4f – the Irish Derby, the Deutsches Derby and the Gand Prix de Paris – within 20 days of each other.

However if the Pattern Committee continues to apply its relentless and flawed logic we are moving inexorably towards a system of racing and breeding focused on races run between 6f and a mile.