Ad Nova Intelligence Report No. 3 / June 1 - 16, 2020
World Economic Outlook WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GROWTH PROJECTIONS REAL GDP, ANNUAL % CHANGE
6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -4.00 -6.00 -8.00 -10.00
2020 2021
UNITED STATES -5.90 4.70
CANADA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
-6.20 4.20
-6.60 3.00
-5.30 2.90
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA -5.70 2.00
-2.40 1.80
CHILE -3.50 3.00
UNITED KINGDOM -6.50 4.00
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
SPAIN
JAPAN
-7.00 5.20
-7.20 4.50
-9.10 4.80
-8.00 4.30
-5.20 3.00
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2020.
Mexico’s Economic Outlook
ORGANIZATION / INSTITUTION
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
INFLATION
% Real growth
(% DEC-DEC)
2020
2021
2020
2021
International Monetary Fund
-6.60
3.00
3.90
3.00
The World Bank
-6.00
2.50
4.00
4.00
0.70
1.40
2.70
2.71
1.30
1.60
3.50
3.20
0.5-1.5
1.1-2.1
3.20
3.00
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) - United Nations (UN) Private Sector Inquiry / Bank of Mexico
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), United Nations (UN), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD and International Monetary Fund.
Mexico’s Economic Outlook Exchange Rate (USD) 11/06/2020 $22.42 ppd
In May, 2020 the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) grew up 0.38 percent compared to the previous month.
Monthly May, 2020 0.38 %
Accumulated Jan-May, 2020 0.22 %
12/06/2020 $22.33 ppd
15/06/2020 $22.54 ppd
Annual 2020 2.84 %
Source: National Institute of Statistic and Geography INEGI.
The National Consumer Price General Index
So far this year, the peso / dollar exchange rate reports an average level of $ 21.54 ppd and an accumulate loss of $ 2.66 pesos per dollar (+ 14.0%).
Because of COVID-19, in April 2020 12.5 millions of jobs were lost March 2020
Economically Active People 55.8 millions
June 11, 2020 Target Rate 5.50
April 2020
Not Economically Active People 45.4 millions
Interbank Equilibrium Interest Rate 1 Day 5.53
28 Days 5.68
91 Days 5.68
182 Days 5.35
Source: Bank of Mexico. Source: National Institute of Statistic and Geography INEGI.
Representative Interest Rate Annual Percent
Unemployment Rate = 5.75%
Mexico’s Economic Outlook Foreign Direct Investment Expectations 2020-2021
Regional Indicator of Commercial Activity Quarterly Average
Gross Fixed Investment as of March 2020
North (22.7)
Billions of Dollars
North Center (21.9) Center (39.7) South (15.8)
March
Expectations for Foreign Direct Investment for 2020 and 2021 were revised upwards in relation to the previous survey, although the average of the forecasts for 2021 remained at levels close to 25 billion dollars.
The Gross Fixed Investment (expenses incurred in machinery and equipment of national and imported origin, as well as construction), registered a reduction in real terms of (-) 3.1% during March of this year compared to the immediately previous month.
During the first quarter of 2020, the activity commercial, measure, exhibited weakness in most regions of the country. The retail trade performance continued limited by the deterioration of the confidence of the consumer and greater restrictions on access bank credit in addition to the mid-quarter spread of the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on family spending.
Economic indicators Source: Bank of Mexico and National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
Mexico’s Economic Outlook Regional indicators of Tourist Activity in Mexico Occupied Rooms
Arrival of flights to the 10 main airports March – june 2020
Arrival of passengers at airports North (18.1) North Center (21.8) Center (35.2) South (24.9)
North (10.0) North Center (26.2) Center (22.8) South (41.0)
Activity in the tourism sector, measured by the number of hotel rooms occupied and arrival of passengers at airports, contracted very significant in all regions of the country as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March, precautionary measures for the health crisis of COVID-19, including international flight cancellations and the closing of operations of car parts and assembler industry, significantly decreased the tourism of domestic and foreign business.
The daily number of flight arrivals to these destinations is estimated to have decreased by 80% between the first half of March and the first week of June, 2020. The flow of passengers on international flights has been clearly affected, a contraction of 70%.
Economic Indicators Source: Bank of Mexico.
Government Updates
01
The World Bank granted a loan of one billion dollars to Mexico for the response and recovery from the economic and social crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in the face of the challenge of maintaining adequate financing flows.
COVID-19 Confirmed cases 154,863 June 16, 2020
02
The European Union, through an initiative called Team Europe, will donate 7 million euros (around 180 million pesos) to Mexico to strengthen its health system and help vulnerable groups such as women victims of violence and the indigenous community before the Covid-19 crisis.
03
11 days after the start of the “New normal”, the President Lopes Obrador called on the Mexican population to overcome their fears and get out of confinement, although it recognized that the entire country is at a red light due to the high number of Covid-19 infections.
04
A federal judge suspends indefinitely the Agreement by which the Reliability, Safety, Continuity and Quality Policy was issued in the National Electric System. Associations of Renewable Energies estimate that the Agreement puts at risk investments of 44 billion dollars as it would affect 260 large-scale generation projects and 56 projects under test or construction in the country.
05
The Great Vision Mexican Railway System project details that the federal government intends to regain control of this network and establish a new master plan for the next 50 years. The objective is to create a legal, regulatory and fiscal scheme that offers benefits to all sectors.
06
The Government of Mexico City announced that in the week of June 15 to 28, it will begin with the reopening by stages of some activities, to prepare the city for the change to the orange traffic light.
Active
21,159
Suspicious
56,843
Recovered
116,178
Deaths
18,310
June 15
The extended Hoy No Circula (every car regardless the model, is pulled out od circulation according to the license plate number) ends, and the Metro and all the Metrobús stations are reopened.
June16
Reopening of the manufacturing industry (it will work from Monday to Thursday from 10 in the morning).
June 18
Reopening of neighborhood shops, wholesalers and retailers.
June 19
Reopening of scientific and technical sectors (works, mining and automotive production).
June 22
Opening of markets and tianguis. Orange traffic light
Source: Main National Newspapers (El economista, El financiero, etc.) & Mexico Health Ministry
Operational Statistics Between Mexico and Other Countries
Operational Statistics Between Mexico and Other Countries
Travel Industry Updates The OTA Despegar announced new terms and conditions for the purchase agreement of Best Day Travel Group, which was announced at the beginning of the year, for a price of $ 136 million, a negotiation, that was questioned in April before the COVID-19 pandemic. However the new terms were announced, for a price of US $ 56.5 million, subject to adjustments based upon net borrowing and working capital, to be paid 36 months after the closing date. Source: Pasillo Turístico (Trade Media).
Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council advised standardizing health and hygiene protocols throughout the world, and mentioned that the industry cannot wait for a COVID-19 vaccine to be manufactured to reactivate, this during a virtual forum. She asked authorities not to reinvent new processes that hinder, creating bad experiences for tourists, as well as to avoid solutions based on local standards. Source: Invertour (Trade Media). Faced with the lack of support and of the government of Andrés López Obrador for the tourism industry, industry leaders invited to participate in the first Virtual International Symposium of the National Council for Tourism Promotion (CNET), stressed that businessmen are the ones who will have to stand up for Mexico and for tourism. They declared that the last thing Mexico needs are new infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and the Santa Lucia Airport, since the first thing that should be done is to reactivate tourism with the allreadey existing infrastructure. Source: Pasillo Turístico (Trade Media).
The GDS Consolid presented the travel platform for corporate clients in conjunction with UltraGroup, a Colombian company. It is a user-friendly administrative system and with this it is possible to identify the main requirements of each person and put together their itineraries under the specific conditions that companies manage. Source: Invertour (Trade Media). The Tour Operators Imacop Tour Corporation (from Guadalajara), Naturleón (from Aguascalientes) and Record Vacation (from Guadalajara) have joined their experience and commercial capacity in Alliance Operators, which aims to boost the tourism industry in this post-COVID-19 revival . Among the objectives of this alliance in working on homogeneous rates, negotiating with hotels and destinations so that the travel agent can find good rates and be more competitive in the market. Source: abz turistico (Trade Media).
Competitive Destinations
Destinations that are Opening to Receive International Tourism The Dominican Republic is ready to receive international visitors from July 1st. This date will coincide with the beginning of Phase 4 of the de-escalation process of the measures announced by the High Level Commission for the Prevention and Control of coronavirus in that country. In addition, they will have very specific actions that have characteristics similar to those established by the World Health Organization (WHO) to ensure that the Dominican tourism industry continues to be a benchmark for health security in the region. Source: Invertour
Iceland is one of the countries that has surprised the world with its very low number of COVID-19 cases. Now, they have confirmed that all their international visitors will have to apply a test to detect this disease. Those who do not choose this measure must quarantine. Source: Invertour (Trade Media).
Since June 3rd, Italy reopened its borders to tourism in Europe itself, of course with strict safety and hygiene protocols such as the use of mouth masks, prudent distances and sanitation of spaces. In addition, it implemented the "immuni" application, the first official European contact tracking technology tool offered to the public to use the "notification of COVID-19 exposures" system from Apple and Google. Source: Invertour (Trade Media).
Airlines Update Delta Airlines
Delta extends its commitment to provide more space for safer travel by continuing to block center seats and limit seating in all cabins until September 30, 2020. Other measures will be to limit the number of passengers on board, resume complimentary upgrades for Medallion members, and add flights to full routes. Also the change fee waiver runs through June 30 offering customers the option to change their plans without an additional fee for one year from the date of purchase. Source: Aerolatinnews.com (Online Media).
Viva Aerobus During the COVID-19 pandemic, the airline announced that the subscription of capital and financing for more than 200 million dollars from an international capital fund, as announced in December 2019, did not materialize, so it remains with 100% Mexican investment. In its May report, more than 117,000 passengers were registered, which was 88.2% lower compared to the same in 2019. The operating factor was 40 routes, but starting in June it rose to 52. Source: El Economista (Newspaper).
Lufthansa German airline Lufthansa will reactivate three of 12 weekly flights between Mexico City and Germany during June, bringing it to 25% capacity after stopping entirely since March. Although the connections with Cancun are not contemplated for this period, do not rule out doing so at some point in the summer. Another affectation of the pandemic could be the postponement in the increase in frequency from Munich from five times a week to a daily flight. Source: Aerolatinnews.com (Online Media).
Aeromexico The continued operations of AeromĂŠxico in Mexico allowed the airline to serve 124,000 domestic travelers, 89.1% less than last year, and 11,000 international travelers, which meant a drop of 98.3%. The group's offer, measured in available seat-kilometers, decreased 76.6% against last year. Source: El Economista (Newspaper).
American Airlines AA resumed its daily flight to Merida International Airport from Miami International Airport. In addition, it restarted operations by season at the Huatulco International Airport from Saturday, June 6, offering one service a week dispatching from the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. Source: Invertour (Trade Media).
Air France The group, made up of Air France and KLM, which never stopped operating in Mexico, despite the pandemic, indicated that it will be increasing frequencies to Mexico, as from July 6 Air France will go from 5 to 7 frequencies , which means it will be flying every day. As regards KLM, it will maintain the five frequencies it offers per week. Source: Pasillo Turistico (Trade Media).
Volaris
Denver International Airport (DEN) welcomed the return of international flights since the COVID-19 pandemic began disrupting air travel; DEN’s last international flight operated on April 1. Mexico-based Volaris is now operating service between Denver and Guadalajara (GDL) for those with essential or repatriation needs. Source: DEN Newsletter.
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South Kore
Source: Direct contact with Airlines
Mexico´s Tourism Media Overview Trade Media Content
46%
17%
3%
Destinations Reopening Tourism Economic Situation
22%
10%
2%
Tourism Health Measures
Destinations Attractions Webinars Hot Sales
Source: Trade Media (Pasillo Turístico, Turistampa, LADEVI, Publitur, Invertour, Réport México, Travel Times and Tráfico Magazine).
Trade and Consumer Media Digital Content Development
Social Media and Digital Channels
Trade and consumer media have enriched its content by adding videos, podcasts, webinars, paid TV, links to live streaming or to destinations websites to create more interactive travel guides.
CARAS.com
Publimetro
Nat Geo Travel er Latam Live streaming
Webinars
Info 7 - Azteca Noreste Tik Tok
Pasi llo Turístico
Travel Guides
Podcasts
Sabores de México
IG
FB
Newsletters
Vidalturismo
TW
Website
Publitur
YT
Mundo Ejecutivo Group (12 Magazines)
Paid TV
Source: Trade Media (Pasillo Turístico, Publitur and Vidalturismo) and Consumer Media (CARAS.com, Nat Geo Traveler LATAM, Sabores de México, Publimetro Newspaper, Azteca Noreste and Mundo Ejecutivo Group with 12 magazines)
Print Media Update Magazines that will restart printing editions
June 15
August
July
Magazines that will be out of Mexican market in July
Source: Direct Contact with Media
Region Offer by Tour Operator North America
1
Mega Travel – 34% PriceTravel – 11% Contravel – 8% Viajes El Corte ingles - 7% Voiash – 7% Julia Tours – 4% Euromunodo – 3% Prisma Operadora – 3% ServiceTour – 3% Adonde – 2% PETRA– 2% Viñales Tours – 2% Abiega Operadora – 1% GoesGo – 1% La Tienda del Viaje – 1% Le Grand – 1% LASEN Travel – 1% Marplay – 1% Mundo Joven – 1% Target – 1% TourMundial – 1% Viaje y Punto – 1% VivaTours – 1%
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Caribe and Central America
6 • • •
Mega Travel – 50% Adonde – 33% Travel Viajes Group – 17%
Total: 222 packages
40%
16%
4%
3%
14%
• • • • • •
South America
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Julia Tours – 20% Mega Travel – 14% Consolid – 12% Abiega Operadora – 8% Prego – 8% Viajes El Corte Ingles – 8% Prisma Operadora – 6% Adonde – 4% iUmira – 4% Oporto Mayorista – 4% Travel Viajes Group – 4% Mundo Joven – 2% Nefertari – 2% Punta del Este – 2% TourMundial – 2%
3
23% 5
2
4
Asia Abiega Operadora – 35% Mega Travel – 13% Mundo Joven – 13% Viaje y Punto – 13% Viajes El Corte Ingles – 13% Viajes Fama – 13%
• • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • •
Middle East Mega Travel – 44% Nefertari – 29% Abiega Operadora – 9% Viajes El Corte Ingles – 6% GoesGo – 3% Mundo Joven – 3% PETRA – 3% Viaje y Punto – 3%
Europe Mega Travel – 44% Sierra Madre – 16% PETRA – 13% Garin Mayorista – 6% Mundo Joven – 6% Marplay – 3% Nefertari – 3% Opesa – 3% Travel Shop – 3% Viajes El Corte Ingles – 3%
North America Offer by Tour Operator
17%
13% Canada • • • •
Mega Travel – 76% Abiega Operadora – 24% adonde/Kinich Coyol – 24% Mundo Joven – 24%
USA • • • • • •
Mega Travel – 52% ServiceTour – 20% adonde/Kinich Coyol – 7% LASEN Travel – 7% Target – 7% Viaje y Punto – 7%
70% Mexico • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Mega Travel – 20% PriceTravel – 15% Contravel – 11% Viajes El Corte Ingles – 10% Voaish – 10% Julia Tours – 6% Euromundo – 5% Prisma Operadora – 5% PETRA – 3% Viñales Tours – 3% GoesGo – 2% La Tienda del Viaje – 2% Le Grand – 2% Marplay – 2% TourMundial – 2% VivaTours – 2%
Source: Trade media (Abz turístico, Boletín Turístico, Esenciales, Pasillo Turístico, Tráfico Magazine and EMI), TO´s Facebook, e-mailing
Room Nights Average by Travel Window and Season
FALL-SPRING N/A 0%
SUMMER-FALL
FALL-WINTER
WINTER-SPRING
5.6
9.8
27
7%
2%
1%
SUMMER 8%
FALL 18%
WINTER 9%
4.2
9.7
6.9
SPRING 2%
4% SUMMER-WINTER
NON-SPECIFIC DATE 21%
3.7
7.2
7.7
28% OPEN REDEMPTION DATE 6.2
*Room Nights average
% of Room Nights Offer by Region
• • • • • •
40 %
41%
1-5 nights
1-10 nights
National – 64% South America – 14% North America – 13% Central America & Caribe –4% Middle East – 4 % Europe – 1%
• • • • • • • •
11%
6%
1-15 nights
South America – 40% Europe – 16% North America – 16% Middle East – 13% Asia – 5% National – 5% Central America & Caribe – 2% Oceania – 1%
• • • •
Europe – 48% Middle East – 40% Asia – 8% South America – 4%
1-20 nights • • •
Europe – 50% Middle East – 42% Asia – 8%
*Not specific nights 1% (Europe and National) +20 nights 1% (Europe, Middle East and North America)
Source: Trade media (Abz turístico, Boletín Turístico, Esenciales, Pasillo Turístico, Tráfico Magazine and EMI), TO´s Facebook, e-mailing
and
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Headquarters/ No. Webinars (41)
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, pt gy , E em tr a s a l P e er u J
Ar
Cuba
as T ex
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Tour Operators Webinars by Region
Consumer Virtual Tours & Webinars by Travel Agencies
6.5k followers
01
• Egypt • Hawaii • Turkey
02
• China • Japan
8.2k followers
Source: Facebook and e-mailing
%
Me ga T
rav el
La Casa del Viaje
Prisma
2% to Opor 2% a orm Pan ns ti o na s ti De a ms 2 % or ea Dr ad er Op
GT
1%
1%
M
13
Africa
Morocco
Italy
s Las Vega Rica Costa Peru a goni Pata n Japa a Chin key Tur ec r nte eb Ce Qu ce iego pa D yS an ed d S sal nn orl Ke r aW nive da Se U na Ca blin o Du nd la Or
La sV Co eg s M ta R as ald ic ive a Ca s na Ni d ag ara a Am ste Falls r Lon dam do n Bel giu 2% m M Bru un Niag jas do ara me 2 Fall % x s Gua tem ala Brien PET z, Sw RA itzerl 2 % a nd Camb odia Viaje Dominic y Pu ana nto 2 % Berlin India La Tienda del V iaje Cuba 3% Bankgok Dominicana Vaction Colombia Record 4% Miami tonio San An es n ngl o I d n e o L rt l Co d i E r d s Ma je 4% Via n i a es Sp irat m E , ico -Jali x l a a i e b Rub m om ro Col s e e r A d Lon ria st on Au Jap , lo to au Kio P o Sa eul S e ri b a C A US
Sarajevo Aegean Sea Machu Pich u Roma Sighiso ara, Ro mania Vene cia Turk ey Jeru sale m Rom a nia Ve Cap rona, Ital ado y c i a Ma , Tu rke Efe ras,P y eru so ,T ur A n I s ta mb key ka ul No ra, tre Tur Tu Da key m rk e ey
In Kind Trade Social Media Campaigns
oven do J n u M
8%
i ba u ,D ru ey , Pe k r y Tu ora rest M uca dria B an es ej Al ippin il ca Ph ta Ri s Co iland Tha Cana ta Pun ecia Ven a Cub nce , Fra e r v Lou i Duba ork New Y ia Californ Egypt Croatia Romania
Poland Garin Mayo rista
6%
Travel Poin t
Im
M ad Ha rid Pa ban Ve ris a ne Gr cia Un ece iv Ind ersal o Pen nesia sy l v Nor ania way Ken ya Engl and Gran d Can yon Unive rsal Amster dam Irleand
6%
Malta
England
Portugal Napa
Michanwi Pin gw e
La
Pr eg 7% o
Zurich, S witzerlan d France , Hotel burbuj Catal a uĂąa, S pain Spain Fran ce Finl and Tha ilan d Ma dri d Me de llin Sa n Ma torin i De ldive Bu a s en d Se os a Li m A i r es a
e ile nc Ch , Fra cy ne eru P An cia nce ne a Ve e, Fr us ulo Bali To rea Ko th Sou el I sr a y Ital Peru elhi va D Nue t Eg y p oup rkey u T s Gr iaje y el V Norwa France
aco p 4%
Trav
4%
7%
Paris Madrid
Source: Facebook and Instagram
In Kind Trade Social Media Campaigns
“Noticia” #AMSouvenirChallenge Inspirational
#REDI #TeVaAEstarEsperando Inspirational
#ViajerosInspirandoViajeros
#DestinoPanorama Inspirational
Inspirational
#VolveremosAViajar
#quedateencasa Inspirational
#viajerosporelmundo Recap Inspirational
#PasionYMagiaPorViajar
Inspirational
#ViajerosPetra
Inspirational
#VolveremosAViajar Inspirational
#planeatusiguienteviaje #ConectaTuDestino
#EXperienciaMarplay
Inspirational
#DescubreConMundomex Inspirational
Back to the
SigamosSoñando Inspirational
Inspirational
#HistoriasPorEscribir
Inspirational #Sueñoluegoviajo
Inspirational
Destino Internacional Inspirational
#yosoyregio
#agentesdesueños #certificacion
Inspirational
#HappyNews
#viajesatodoelmundo Inspirational
#VolveremosAViajar
Inspirational
Inspirational
#letsvoiash
Source: Facebook and Instagram
Interest-free periods 0 2
Discount off
Non-cost changes
20%
1 1
Target
1 Volaris
2 Voiash
1 Viva Tours
2 VICA
1 Viajes Fama
6
Viajes El Corte Ingles
4
Viaje y Punto
10
Travel Viajes Group
2 Travel Shop
11
Travel Point
Travel Impressions
1 Sevilla Sol
2 Regio Operadora
7
Record Vaction
1 Prisma
Prego
3
PETRA
3
Panorma
4
Oporto
2 Opesa
1 Operadora 365
2 One2Travel
5
Mundomex
12
Mundo Joven
Mega Travel
Marplay
4
La Tienda del Viaje
2 La Casa del Viaje
1 iUmira
7
Imacop
4
GTM Operadora
1
GoesGo
15
Garin Mayorista
5
Dreams Destinations
10
Consolid
Aeromexico
# Posts
Number of postings by company 25 21
20 13 10
6
4 2
Company
Source: Facebook and Instagram
Trade Sales Strategies
80%
Other (2x1, special commissions, payment facilities, free kids)
Source:Social Media,EMI, Abz Turistico, Pasillo Turistico, e-mailing
Outbound Strategy Performance Index
Mexico’s Tourism Industry: Airlines, TO, Wholesalers, GDS, OTAS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Company
Total 8.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4
Weighted Performance Indicators
Place
1
Regional Presence
2
Sales Strategies
3
Webinars
4
Packages
5 6
(10%)
(5%)
(5%)
(15%)
Travel Window (10%)
Product (10%)
7
Distribution Channel
8
Social Media Campaigns
9
Social Media Tools
10
(10%)
(10%)
(10%)
# Posts (15%) Source: Social Media, Trade Media, e-mailings/Sample 63 tourism companies
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